Ocean Heat Transport Research Articles

Cyclones modulate the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transports into the Barents Sea

The warm Atlantic Water transported into the Barents Sea plays a crucial role in winter sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and mid-latitude weather. The North Atlantic Oscillation is known to be an important driver for the Atlantic Water transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening. Here, we find that the dependence of the Barents Sea Opening ocean volume transport variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation is non-stationary. Our results indicate that for the period 1995 to 2005, the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening temporarily weakened before an eventual recovery. During this period, synoptic cyclones with unusual trajectories as a consequence of pronounced atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic sector altered the large-scale and local wind patterns. This temporarily caused a state that the Barents Sea Opening transport variability is largely locally driven instead of being driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our study suggests that an adequate representation of both the North Atlantic Oscillation and cyclone activity is necessary for climate models to better predict future changes in poleward ocean heat transport and Arctic climate.

Mechanisms of projected sea-level trends and variability in the Southeast Asia region based on MPI-ESM-ER

The low-lying and densely populated Southeast Asia (SEA) region is threatened by sea-level change. To better understand the mechanism of sea-level change in this region, the sea-level trends and variability in the SEA region are investigated over the historical period 1950–2014 and during 2015–2099 under Shared Socio-economic Pathway5-8.5 scenario forcing, based on the output of the high-resolution (~ 0.1° for ocean) global climate model MPI-ESM-ER. The results confirm that the SEA sterodynamic sea level and its components (i.e., thermosteric, halosteric, and manometric sea level) are rising with accelerations, which are superimposed on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven variabilities. To understand changes of thermosteric and halosteric sea level, regional-mean ocean heat and freshwater contents are analysed based on physical processes of ocean transports and air-sea fluxes. We show that ENSO variability impacts the thermosteric sea level mainly through lateral ocean heat transports, while it impacts the halosteric sea level mainly through surface freshwater flux. In the projection, a decreased volume transport of the relatively cold water (with respect to the SEA average) from the Pacific warms the SEA region. At the same time, a freshening of the transported saline water (with respect to the SEA average) results in an increased ocean freshwater transport into the SEA region. Locally, the pathway of volume transport from the Pacific to the SEA region is shifting northward, which results in a weakened Indonesian throughflow and an enhanced South China Sea throughflow, both leading to changes of regional sea-level pattern.

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget

AbstractThe impacts of stratospheric ozone recovery on Southern Ocean surface and interior temperature, heat content, heat uptake, and heat transport are investigated by contrasting two ensemble chemistry‐climate model simulations in 2005–2099: one with fixed ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and another with decreasing ODSs. In our simulations ozone recovery significantly affects Southern Ocean temperature, with large latitudinal and vertical variations. Ozone recovery causes a dipole change of the full‐depth ocean heat content (OHC) with an increase south of 60°S and a decrease between 45°S and 60°S. Integrated over latitudes south of 40°S, OHC decreases in response to ozone recovery. This ocean heat loss is shown to be driven by weakened poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across 40°S, which is partly canceled by enhanced heat uptake. The weakening of poleward OHT into the Southern Ocean is caused by the ozone‐induced equatorward shift of the meridional overturning circulation.

Doubling of surface oceanic meridional heat transport by non-symmetry of mesoscale eddies

Oceanic transport of heat by ubiquitous mesoscale eddies plays a critical role in regulating climate variability and redistributing excess heat absorbed by ocean under global warming. Eddies have long been simplified as axisymmetric vortices and their influence on heat transport remains unclear. Here, we combine satellite and drifter data and show that oceanic mesoscale eddies are asymmetric and directionally-dependent, and are controlled by their self-sustaining nature and their dynamical environment. Both the direction and amplitude of eddy-induced he.at fluxes are significantly influenced by eddy’s asymmetry and directional dependence. When the eddy velocity field is decomposed into asymmetric and symmetric components, the eddy kinetic energy exhibits a nearly equal partition between these two components. The total eddy-induced meridional heat flux similarly doubles the heat flux induced by the symmetric components, highlighting the crucial contribution of eddy asymmetry on the magnitude of eddy-induced oceanic heat transport.

Alongshore Winds Force Warm Atlantic Water Toward Helheim Glacier in Southeast Greenland

AbstractEnhanced transport of warm subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) into Greenland fjords has driven glacier mass loss, but the mechanisms transporting AW to the fjords remain poorly characterized. Here, we provide the first direct satellite‐based observations of rapid (∼0.2 m/s) AW intrusion toward Sermilik Fjord abutting Helheim Glacier, one of Greenland's largest glaciers. The intrusions arise when coastal upwelling—through interactions with Sermilik's bathymetric trough on the continental shelf—triggers enhanced AW upwelling and inflow that can travel tens of kilometers along the trough within hours. A weakening or reversal of northeasterly alongshore winds stimulates the intrusions and is often associated with the passing of cyclones and subsequent sea surface lowering. Mooring data show that these intrusions produce subsurface ocean warming both at Sermilik Fjord mouth and within the fjord and that the warming signal in the fjord does not diminish during subsequent coastal downwelling events. Satellite imagery captures near‐synchronous AW intrusions at multiple troughs rimming southeast Greenland suggesting that these wind‐driven processes may play a substantial role in ocean heat transport toward the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Accelerated Rate of Sea Ice Decline in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

Abstract Arctic sea ice loss in response to a warming climate is assessed in 42 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Sea ice observations show a significant acceleration in the rate of decline commencing near the turn of the twenty-first century. It is our assertion that state-of-the-art climate models should qualitatively reflect this accelerated trend within the limitations of internal variability and observational uncertainty. Our analysis shows that individual CMIP6 simulations of sea ice depict a wide range of model spread on biases and anomaly trends both across models and among their ensemble members. While the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the observed sea ice area (SIA) decline relatively well, an individual model’s ability to represent the acceleration in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Seventeen (40%) out of 42 CMIP6 models and 37 (13%) out of the total 286 ensemble members reasonably capture the observed trends and acceleration in SIA decline. In addition, a larger ensemble size appears to increase the odds for a model to include at least one ensemble member skillfully representing the accelerated SIA trends. Simulations of sea ice volume (SIV) show much larger spread and uncertainty than SIA; however, due to limited availability of sea ice thickness data, these are not as well constrained by observations. Finally, we find that models with more ocean heat transport simulate larger sea ice declines, which suggests an emergent constraint in CMIP6 ensembles. This relationship points to the need for better understanding and modeling of ice–ocean interactions, especially with respect to frazil ice growth.

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO2 concentrations

Arctic amplification (AA), referring to the phenomenon of amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the warming in the rest of the globe, is generally attributed to the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. However, little attention has been paid to the mechanisms and quantitative variations of AA under decreasing levels of CO2, when cooling where the Arctic region is considerably larger than over the rest of the planet. Analyzing climate model experiments forced with a wide range of CO2 concentrations (from 1/8× to 8×CO2, with respect to preindustrial levels), we show that AA indeed occurs under decreasing CO2 concentrations, and it is stronger than AA under increasing CO2 concentrations. Feedback analysis reveals that the Planck, lapse-rate, and albedo feedbacks are the main contributors to producing AAs forced by CO2 increase and decrease, but the stronger lapse-rate feedback associated with decreasing CO2 level gives rise to stronger AA. We further find that the increasing CO2 concentrations delay the peak month of AA from November to December or January, depending on the forcing strength. In contrast, decreasing CO2 levels cannot shift the peak of AA earlier than October, as a consequence of the maximum sea-ice increase in September which is independent of forcing strength. Such seasonality changes are also presented in the lapse-rate feedback, but do not appear in other feedbacks nor in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport processeses. Our results highlight the strongly asymmetric responses of AA, as evidenced by the different changes in its intensity and seasonality, to the increasing and decreasing CO2 concentrations. These findings have significant implications for understanding how carbon removal could impact the Arctic climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities.

On-shelf circulation of warm water toward the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica

The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, with an ice volume equivalent to >3.5 m of global sea-level rise, is grounded below sea level and, therefore, vulnerable to ocean forcing. Here, we use bathymetric and oceanographic observations from previously unsampled parts of the Totten continental shelf to reveal on-shelf warm water pathways defined by deep topographic features. Access of warm water to the Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) cavity is facilitated by a deep shelf break, a broad and deep depression on the shelf, a cyclonic circulation that carries warm water to the inner shelf, and deep troughs that provide direct access to the TIS cavity. The temperature of the warmest water reaching the TIS cavity varies by ~0.8 °C on an interannual timescale. Numerical simulations constrained by the updated bathymetry demonstrate that the deep troughs play a critical role in regulating ocean heat transport to the TIS cavity and the subsequent basal melt of the ice shelf.

Climate Response to Atlantic Meridional Energy Transport Variations

Abstract The climate responses to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations are investigated in a hierarchy of sensitivity experiments. We modify the baroclinic component of the North Atlantic Ocean currents online in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to reproduce typical AMOC multidecadal variability found in a preindustrial control simulation in the same model. An analogous experiment is also conducted using a slab-ocean experiment. The responses to a strong AMOC include a widespread warming in the Northern Hemisphere and a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean. The driving mechanism of climate responses is then investigated with the changes in the energy flows in the ocean and atmosphere. The large-scale atmospheric changes in the tropics are organized by an anomalous cross-equatorial Hadley circulation transporting energy southward and moisture and heat northward. Changes in the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation and heat transport, driven by the wind stress associated with the abnormal Hadley cell, damp the atmospheric responses. The lack of Indo-Pacific transport and ocean heat storage leads to amplified atmospheric changes in the slab-ocean experiments, which are further amplified by a positive feedback due to the interhemispheric antisymmetric changes in low cloud cover.

Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene Ensemble: Non‐CO2 and CO2 Effects

AbstractThe total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO2 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non‐CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO2 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.

Annual Cycle in Upper-Ocean Heat Content and the Global Energy Budget

Abstract As a major component of Earth’s energy budget, ocean heat content (OHC) plays a vital role in buffering climate change. The annual cycle is the most prominent change in OHC but has always been removed to study variations and changes in Earth’s energy budget. Here, we investigate the annual cycle of the upper-2000-m OHC at regional to global scales and assess the robustness of the signals using the spread of multiple observational products. The potential drivers are also investigated by comparing the annual OHC signal with the corresponding change in top-of-atmosphere radiation, surface heat flux, ocean heat divergence, and meridional heat transport. Results show that the robust signal of annual OHC change is significant down to a 1000-m depth globally and can reach down to 1500 m in some areas such as the tropical ocean. The global OHC (0–1500 m) changes from positive anomalies within September–February to negative anomalies within March–August, mainly because of the larger ocean area in the Southern Hemisphere and the seasonal migration of solar irradiance. Owing to the huge ocean heat capacity, the annual cycle of OHC dominates that of the global energy budget. The difference among the OHC annual cycles in the three major ocean basins is mainly attributed to ocean heat transport, especially in the tropics. In the upper 1500 m at mid- and high latitudes and in the upper 50 m of the tropics, the net sea surface heat flux dominates the OHC annual cycle, while in the tropics below 50 m, wind-driven Ekman heat transport associated with the geostrophic flow is the main driver.

Balancing Volume, Temperature, and Salinity Budgets During 2014–2018 in the Tropical Pacific Ocean State Estimate

AbstractA state estimate of the tropical Pacific Ocean is used to analyze regional volume, temperature, and salinity budgets during 2014–2018. The simulated ocean state is constrained by both model dynamics and assimilated observations. Comparisons with independent mooring data show that the state estimate is consistent with the observed variability in temperature and velocity. Budgets are analyzed between 5°S and 5°N in the upper 300 m, inside a box defined to represent the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Transports through the faces of this box are quantified to understand the processes responsible for variability in box‐mean properties. Vertical mixing across 300 m is negligible; temperature and salinity tendencies are balanced by surface fluxes and advective divergence, which is decomposed into geostrophic and ageostrophic components. The onset and recovery of the 2015/2016 El Niño event is found to be dominated by anomalous surface fluxes and horizontal advection. During the onset phase, weaker trade winds cause the shallow meridional overturning circulation to slow down, which reduces the poleward transport of heat and leads to upper ocean warming. Anomalous precipitation and advection of fresh water from the western Pacific drive the net freshening of the region. Relaxation from El Niño conditions is dominated by wind‐driven meridional advection at 5°N. As the meridional advection regains strength, Ekman advection efficiently exports the warm, fresh surface water out of the equatorial region. Quantifying the heat and salt transport changes in response to wind variability strengthens our understanding of global ocean heat transport.

Deconstructing the causes of July sea level variability in the East Sea from 1994 to 2021

In 2021 the East Sea experienced its highest July sea level (65.09 cm), as well as the highest July sea surface and atmospheric temperatures, in the 29 years between 1993 and 2021. We present several methodologies to identify the more important causes of sea level change (SLC) in a semi-enclosed sea and explore the critical fluctuation of ocean mass transport divergence during a period of rapid sea level rise. Based on satellite altimeter data in the East Sea, the SLC, as reflected in the absolute dynamic topography (ADT), which is the ADT difference between the last and first days of a month, was 7.18 cm in July 2021. This may reflect a combination of oceanic and atmospheric factors: ocean heat transport divergence among the Korea, Tsugaru, and Soya Straits was found to contribute 2.32 cm of SLC, atmospheric heat flux at the sea surface contributed 2.87 cm of SLC, and mass divergence (including errors) accounted for 1.98 cm of SLC. The monthly mean sea level (ADT) variation in the East Sea should be examined in terms of the oceanic and atmospheric fluxes, and the SLC sources can additionally be divided into heat and others (mass + errors). The proportional contribution of heat to SLC from 1994 to 2021 was 97.4%. Although the contributions of mass and errors were small, there were substantial temporal fluctuations, as their standard deviation reached up to 96.7% of that of SLC in ADT. In the near future, a more precise analysis of the contributions of mass and errors to SLC is required.

Relative contributions of local heat storage and ocean heat transport to cold‐season Arctic Ocean surface energy fluxes in CMIP6 models

AbstractThe Arctic near‐surface air temperature increases most strongly during the cold season, and ocean heat storage has often been cited as a crucial component in linking the ice‐albedo radiative feedback, which is active in summer, and near‐surface air temperature increase in winter, when the lapse rate feedback contributes to Arctic warming. Here, we first estimate how much local heat storage and ocean heat transport contribute to net surface energy fluxes on a seasonal scale in CMIP6 models. We then compare contributions in a base state under weak anthropogenic forcing to a near‐present‐day state in which significant Arctic amplification is simulated. Our analysis indicates that, in a few regions, ocean heat transport plays a larger role for cold‐season net surface energy fluxes compared with local heat storage. Analyzing differences between past and near‐present‐day conditions suggests that the lapse rate feedback, which mainly acts during the cold season in warm water inflow regions, may be more strongly influenced than previously thought by increased ocean heat transport from lower latitudes.

Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone-induced ocean warming in recent decades

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, yet little is known about how the TC-induced ocean heat uptake (OHU) has changed in recent decades. Based on ocean reanalysis, we calculated OHU and found a significant decline of TC-induced OHU from 1982 to 2018. If all the ocean heat gain is balanced by poleward heat transport, approximately 15% of peak ocean heat transport would have been reduced during the study period. The decreasing trend of OHU is consistent with the enhanced ocean stratification, the shallowed mixed layer depth and the reduced cold wake size. The reduction of OHU primarily occurs in the Northwest Pacific, where the shortened TC lifespan contributes as well. Furthermore, the decline of OHU might offset about 28% of the upper ocean warming in the subtropical Northwest Pacific.

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Abstract. The lig127k-H11 simulation of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) is run using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 model. We focus on the coupled system response to the applied meltwater forcing. We show here that the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean is altered in the hosing experiment compared to a Last Interglacial simulation with no meltwater forcing applied. Two aspects in particular of the atmosphere–ocean coupling are found to be affected: Northern Hemisphere (NH) gyre heat transport and Antarctic sea ice area. We apply 0.2 Sv of meltwater forcing across the North Atlantic during a 250-year-long simulation. We find that the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is reduced by 60 % after 150 years of meltwater forcing, with an associated decrease of 0.2 to 0.4 PW in meridional ocean heat transport at all latitudes. The changes in ocean heat transport affect surface temperatures. The largest increase in the meridional surface temperature gradient occurs between 40–50∘ N. This increase is associated with a strengthening of 20 % in 850 hPa winds. The jet stream intensification in the Northern Hemisphere in return alters the temperature structure of the ocean by increasing the gyre circulation at the mid-latitudes and the associated heat transport by +0.1–0.2 PW, and it decreases the gyre circulation at high latitudes with a decrease of ocean heat transport of −0.2 PW. The changes in meridional surface temperature and pressure gradients cause the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to move southward, leading to stronger westerlies and a more positive Southern Annual Mode (SAM) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The positive SAM influences sea ice formation, leading to an increase in Antarctic sea ice.

Eddy and tidal driven basal melting of the Totten and Moscow University ice shelves

The mass loss from the neighboring Totten and Moscow University ice shelves is accelerating and may raise global sea levels in coming centuries. Totten Glacier is mostly based on bedrock below sea level, and so is vulnerable to warm water intrusion reducing its ice shelf buttressing. The mechanisms driving the ocean forced sub-ice-shelf melting remains to be further explored. In this study, we simulate oceanic-driven ice shelf melting of the Totten (TIS) and Moscow University ice shelves (MUIS) using a high spatiotemporal resolution model that resolves both eddy and tidal processes. We selected the year 2014 as representative of the period 1992 to 2017 to investigate how basal melting varies on spatial and temporal scales. We apply the wavelet coherence method to investigate the interactions between the two ice shelves in time-frequency space and hence estimate the contributions from tidal (<1.5 days) and eddy (2-35 days) components of the ocean heat transport to the basal melting of each ice shelf. In our simulation, the 2014 mean basal melt rate for TIS is 6.7 m yr-1 (42 Gt yr-1) and 9.7 m yr-1 (52 Gt yr-1) for MUIS. We find high wavelet coherence in the eddy dominated frequency band between the two ice shelves over almost the whole year. The wavelet coherence along five transects across the ice shelves suggests that TIS basal melting is dominated by eddy processes, while MUIS basal melting is dominated by tidal processes. The eddy-dominated basal melt for TIS is probably due to the large and convoluted bathymetric gradients beneath the ice shelf, weakening higher frequency tidal mode transport. This illustrates the key role of accurate bathymetric data plays in simulating on-going and future evolution of these important ice shelves.

Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea

Abstract. Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas.

Future Indian Ocean warming patterns

Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). But little is known about the underlying physical drivers. Here, we are using a suite of large ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model 2 to elucidate the causes of non-uniform Indian Ocean warming. Strong negative air-sea interactions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are responsible for a future weakening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, resulting in a slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation and the generation of southeasterly wind anomalies over the AS. These contribute to anomalous northward ocean heat transport, reduced evaporative cooling, a weakening in upper ocean vertical mixing and an enhanced AS future warming. In contrast, the projected warming in the SEIO is related to a reduction of low-cloud cover and an associated increase in shortwave radiation. Therefore, the regional character of air-sea interactions plays a key role in promoting future large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies with implications for society and ecosystems far outside the Indian Ocean realm.

Submesoscale inverse energy cascade enhances Southern Ocean eddy heat transport

Oceanic eddy-induced meridional heat transport (EHT) is an important process in the Southern Ocean heat budget, the variability of which significantly modulates global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and Antarctic sea-ice extent. Although it is recognized that mesoscale eddies with scales of ~40–300 km greatly contribute to the EHT, the role of submesoscale eddies with scales of ~1–40 km remains unclear. Here, using two state-of-the-art high-resolution simulations (resolutions of 1/48° and 1/24°), we find that submesoscale eddies significantly enhance the total poleward EHT in the Southern Ocean with an enhancement percentage reaching 19–48% in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current band. By comparing the eddy energy budgets between the two simulations, we detect that the primary role of submesoscale eddies is to strengthen mesoscale eddies (and thus their heat transport capability) through inverse energy cascade rather than directly through submesoscale heat fluxes. Due to the submesoscale-mediated enhancement of mesoscale eddies in the 1/48° simulation, the clockwise upper cell and anti-clockwise lower cell of the residual-mean MOC in the Southern Ocean are weakened and strengthened, respectively. This finding identifies a potential route to improve the mesoscale parameterization in climate models for more accurate simulations of the MOC and sea ice variability in the Southern Ocean.