Ocean General Circulation Model Research Articles

Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments

Abstract. It has been well established that during the late Quaternary, the Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea occurred, when the sea level rose tens of meters above the present level. Here, we evaluate the physical feasibility of the hypothesis that the maximum phase of this extraordinary event (known as the “Early Khvalynian transgression”) could be initiated and maintained for several thousand years solely by hydroclimatic factors. The hypothesis is based on recent studies dating the highest sea level stage (well above +10 m a.s.l.) to the final period of deglaciation, 17–13 kyr BP, and studies estimating the contribution of the glacial waters in the sea level rise for this period as negligible. To evaluate the hypothesis put forward, we first applied the coupled ocean and sea-ice general circulation model driven by the climate model and estimated the equilibrium water inflow (irrespective of its origin) sufficient to maintain the sea level at the well-dated marks of the Early Khvalynian transgression as 400–470 km3 yr−1. Secondly, we conducted an extensive radiocarbon dating of the large paleochannels (signs of high flow of atmospheric origin) located in the Volga basin and found that the period of their origin (17.5–14 ka BP) is almost identical to the recent dating of the main phase of the Early Khvalynian transgression. Water flow that could form these paleochannels was earlier estimated for the ancient Volga River as 420 km3 yr−1, i.e., close to the equilibrium runoff we determined. Thirdly, we applied a hydrological model forced by paleoclimate data to reveal physically consistent mechanisms of an extraordinarily high water inflow into the Caspian Sea in the absence of a visible glacial meltwater effect. We found that the inflow could be caused by the spread of post-glacial permafrost in the Volga paleocatchment. The numerical experiments demonstrated that the permafrost resulted in a sharp drop in infiltration into the frozen ground and reduced evaporation, which all together generated the Volga runoff during the Oldest Dryas, 17–14.8 kyr BP, up to 360 km3 yr−1 (i.e., the total inflow into the Caspian Sea could reach 450 km3 yr−1). The closeness of the estimates of river inflow into the sea, obtained by three independent methods, in combination with the previously obtained results, gave us reason to conclude that the hypothesis put forward is physically consistent.

Sensitivity of Internal-Tide Generation to Stratification and Its Implication for Deep Overturning Circulations

Abstract The simple scaling relation for internal-tide generation proposed by Jayne and St. Laurent is widely used for parameterizing turbulent mixing induced by breaking of internal tides. Based on the internal-tide generation derived from a 0.1° ocean general circulation model, we show that depending on which stratification is used, this relation produces different vertical distributions of internal-tide generation. When using the buoyancy frequency at the seafloor, which is a common practice, the scaling relation produces, relative to the model, too-strong internal-tide generation in the upper 2000 m and too-weak internal-tide generation in the lower 2000 m. Moreover, the different vertical distributions in the different ocean basins, characterized by a generally decreasing internal tide generation with increasing depth in the Indo-Pacific but not-decreasing or even increasing internal tide generation with increasing depth in the upper 3000 m of the Atlantic, cannot be captured when using bottom stratification. These unsatisfactory features can be easily removed by replacing the buoyancy frequency at the seafloor by a buoyancy frequency averaged over a large part of the water column. To our knowledge, this sensitivity to stratification has not been explicitly quantified for the global ocean. Because of this sensitivity, the scaling relation of Jayne and St. Laurent should be used with an averaged stratification to ensure a more adequate representation of turbulent diffusivity due to tidal mixing and water mass transformation in the deep oceans.

Assessment of river flow future changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins based on climate modeling data

The ongoing climate changes affect water resources and the water bodies’ regime. This is reflected in the water management complex operation. Analysis of possible hydrological changes in the Upper Volga and Kama basins in the 21st century is based on projections of future climate in the ensemble of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models (AGOGS) of the CMIP6 project (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Models were selected according to the reliability of regional climate reproduction. An assessment of possible changes in the annual average river flow in the 21st century for five reservoir basins of the Upper Volga and three Kama reservoirs basins was made. The assessment was carried out according to two scenarios - optimistic and pessimistic, which provides a wide range of assessments of future changes. It is shown during the 21st century no fundamental changes in river flow are expected in the study areas.

Uncertainties in the Arctic Ocean response to CO2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$_2$$\\end{document}: a process-based analysis

Using an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in an idealized climate change experiment, this study evaluates the contribution of different ocean processes to Arctic Ocean warming. On the AOGCM-mean, the Arctic Ocean warming is greater than the global ocean warming, both in the volume-weighted mean, and at most depths within the upper 2000 m. However, the uncertainty of Arctic Ocean warming is much larger than the uncertainty of global ocean warming. The Arctic warming is greatest a few 100 m below the surface and is dominated by the import of extra heat, which is added to the ocean at lower latitudes and is conveyed to the Arctic mostly by the large-scale barotropic ocean circulation. The change in strength of this circulation in the North Atlantic is relatively small and not correlated with the Arctic Ocean warming. The Arctic Ocean warming is opposed and substantially mitigated by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), though the magnitude of this effect has a large model spread. By reducing the northward transport of heat, the AMOC weakening causes a redistribution of heat from high latitudes to low latitudes. Within the Arctic Ocean, the propagation of heat anomalies is influenced by broadening of cyclonic circulation in the east and weakening of anticyclonic circulation in the west. On the model-mean, the Arctic Ocean warming is most pronounced in the Eurasian Basin, with large spread across the AOGCMs, and accompanied by subsurface cooling by diapycnal mixing and heat redistribution by mesoscale eddies.

A Mechanism for the Generation of a Warm SST Anomaly in the Western Equatorial Pacific: A Pathway Perspective

AbstractProcesses leading to the onset and development of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific remain elusive. Observed data and Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations are used to reveal a well‐defined pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations along the mean North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) pathways in association with the onset and evolution of some El Niño events. The OGCM‐based sensitivity experiments are conducted to illustrate how a warm SST anomaly (SSTA) on the equator can result from a thermal forcing that is prescribed north of 10°N, similar to observed SST anomalies in December 1988. Within approximately one year, the imposed SST anomaly north of 10°N tends to be transported to the dateline region on the equator by the mean ocean circulation in the western Pacific (the low‐latitude western boundary current and the NECC). In due course, an upper‐layer ocean warming is generated off the equator at 6–10°N and then on the equator, which acts to induce a westerly wind anomaly response; a simple statistical atmospheric wind stress model is then used to depict an expected westerly wind response. These resultant SST and surface wind perturbations can couple together over the western tropical Pacific, forming air‐sea interactions and setting up a stage for El Niño onset. As such, this pathway mechanism can reasonably well explain the first appearance of a warm SST anomaly on the equator in the dateline region and the corresponding development of westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific in association with El Niño onset.

Numerical Modeling of Tidal Phenomena of the Penzhinskaya Bay

In this study, the Delft3D-Flow hydrodynamic model was used to determine the characteristics of the main tidal waves and currents in the Penzhina Bay (Sea of Okhotsk, Russia). The initial and boundary conditions are set according to the TPXO9 model data, the salinity and water temperature for each model layer are set based on the reanalysis data of the HYCOM ocean general circulation model, with a time step of 3 h. E-uropean Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis ERA-5 was used as meteoforcing. Modeling was performed for the ice-free period from May to September 2005. Maps of cotidal lines, tidal ellipses, and reversibility coefficient for the main tide waves: semidiurnal wave M2 and diurnal wave K1 were constructed. The model was verified by comparing the published and calculated harmonic components for 9 sea level monitoring points located in the Penzhina Bay. Conformance evaluation generally shows a high degree of consistency between model and reference data. The values of the coefficient of determination R2 between the series formed by the model and published harmonic components are in the range of 0.96–0.99. According to the magnitude of relative errors, the simulation results are divided into two consistency categories – high (1.48–2.14%) and satisfactory (2.93–4.27%). Spatial patterns of distribution for the values of relative errors were not found. A certain inconsistency in the results is presumably due to the time discretization of the observation time support and the short sea level monitoring data series used to calculate the published harmonic components at the Penzhina Bay.

Zonal Structure of Tropical Pacific Surface Salinity Anomalies Affects the Eastern and Central Pacific El Niños Differently

AbstractMaximum sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies are found in the central Pacific during the eastern Pacific El Niño (EPEN) and located further westward during the central Pacific El Niño (CPEN), but whether these differences affect event strengths is unclear. By performing ocean general circulation model experiments via modifying freshwater flux anomalies, we find salinity effects on surface warming during both types are highly sensitive to zonal locations of SSS anomalies, with the strongest warming induced by the SSS anomalies near the international dateline. Further analysis reveals that vertical mixing and entrainment dominate this temperature sensitivity, with the strongest response to SSS anomalies occurring in the central Pacific. The central‐Pacific SSS anomalies increase EPEN warming by 0.15°C while the westward‐located SSS anomalies make little contribution to CPEN warming. Therefore, the distinct zonal structures of SSS anomalies facilitate stronger EPEN than the CPEN, increasing their difference in intensity by about 10%.

Simulated inventory and distribution of 137Cs released from multiple sources in the global ocean

Radioactive cesium (137Cs) is distributed in the world's oceans as a result of global fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, releases from fuel reprocessing plants, and inputs from nuclear power plant accident. In order to detect future radionuclide contamination, it is necessary to establish a baseline global distribution of radionuclides such as 137Cs and to understand the ocean transport processes that lead to that distribution. In order to aid in the interpretation of the observed database, we have conducted a suite of simulations of the distribution of 137Cs using a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Simulated 137Cs radioactivity concentrations agree well with observations, and the results were used to estimate the changes in inventories for each ocean basin. 137Cs activity concentration from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests are expected to be detectable in the world ocean until at least 2030.

Modelling secondary circulations in stratified bi-directional flows: A potential mechanism for flux transfer from lower to upper fluid layers

Results are presented for new laboratory-scale numerical simulations of bi-directional stratified flows generated within an idealized trapezoidal sill-channel topography, focussing on the lateral (or secondary) flow structure across the channel both in non-rotating and rotating frames of reference. The simulations utilise the non-hydrostatic Bergen Ocean Model (BOM), a three-dimensional general ocean circulation model. The results from the BOM simulations are verified by large-scale experimental data obtained in the LEGI Coriolis rotating platform in Grenoble, within which velocity and density fields for bi-directional stratified flows were measured through particle image velocimetry (PIV) and micro-conductivity density probes, respectively. The BOM simulations reproduce the main dynamic flow patterns and structure of the large-scale exchange flows generated through the trapezoidal sill-channel, with the lower layer saline intrusion flux shown to reduce, due to partial blockage, as the upper freshwater flow is increased (i.e. net barotropic forcing). Non-rotational BOM simulations show upward (and downward) flow along the centreline of the trapezoidal sill-channel in the upper (and lower) layers, with symmetrical counter-rotating circulation cells forming both above and below the density interface. By contrast, equivalent BOM simulations within a rotating frame of reference show the secondary flow circulation in the lower dense water layer to be dominated by Ekman dynamics, while two co-rotating cells are formed in the upper freshwater layer above the inclined density interface. In these rotational cases, significant upward and downward velocities (i.e. strong upwelling and downwelling) are generated adjacent to the inclined sill-channel side walls (in comparison to non-rotating cases). This secondary flow effect may be especially relevant for exchange flows in estuaries, fjords, deep-ocean channels and sea straits, where the channel width exceeds the Rossby radius of deformation and, thus, Earth rotation effects become important dynamically. In particular, any potential vertical transport pathway associated with this upwelling and downwelling at the inclined channel side slopes may have strong managerial implications in coastal areas, whereby tracers (e.g. contaminants, salinity, reduced DO waters, fine sediments) can be transferred from deep waters to the near surface.

A study of the simulated climatological January mean upwelling in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska

In this research, we studied the upwelling in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska using the climatological January mean and data from the output of the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES2). Specifically, we analyzed the upwelling in the regions where the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) flows out of the Shelikof Strait (especially the part to the west of Kodiak Island) and where the ACC and the Alaskan Stream (AS) are confluent. In both regions, strong geostrophic currents and downwelling-favorable wind predominate in winter. Furthermore, there are freshwater discharges along the Alaskan coast and an observed mean current vertical shear in the ACC. We revealed that when the internal water stress is larger than the wind stress inside the study regions, this could be decisive in terms of the local horizontal velocity divergence and further upwelling, even if the region is away from the coast and lacks upwelling-favorable wind conditions. Geostrophic stress is part of the internal water stress and is a product of the geostrophic current shear (due to the thermal wind relation) and the vertical viscosity coefficient. The analysis indicated that a front with a large geostrophic stress may act as a “virtual wall” and contribute to local upwelling within a depth of approximately 100 m in the study regions. This process could provide a heuristic for understanding the distribution of pollock in the areas during February and March, which corresponds to the simulated upwelling region.

Parameterizing Vertical Mixing Coefficients in the Ocean Surface Boundary Layer Using Neural Networks

AbstractVertical mixing parameterizations in ocean models are formulated on the basis of the physical principles that govern turbulent mixing. However, many parameterizations include ad hoc components that are not well constrained by theory or data. One such component is the eddy diffusivity model, where vertical turbulent fluxes of a quantity are parameterized from a variable eddy diffusion coefficient and the mean vertical gradient of the quantity. In this work, we improve a parameterization of vertical mixing in the ocean surface boundary layer by enhancing its eddy diffusivity model using data‐driven methods, specifically neural networks. The neural networks are designed to take extrinsic and intrinsic forcing parameters as input to predict the eddy diffusivity profile and are trained using output data from a second moment closure turbulent mixing scheme. The modified vertical mixing scheme predicts the eddy diffusivity profile through online inference of neural networks and maintains the conservation principles of the standard ocean model equations, which is particularly important for its targeted use in climate simulations. We describe the development and stable implementation of neural networks in an ocean general circulation model and demonstrate that the enhanced scheme outperforms its predecessor by reducing biases in the mixed‐layer depth and upper ocean stratification. Our results demonstrate the potential for data‐driven physics‐aware parameterizations to improve global climate models.

Toward assimilation of acoustic travel times into an ocean state estimate

Direct ocean observing systems are a scarce set of data that build the backbone for understanding the current state of the ocean. These systems are limited in areas of high variability in temperature and salinity. Pioneering work of Wunsch (1977) proposed efforts to extract detailed hydrographic information using sound propagation through the ocean, providing the scaffolding to improve our understanding of the ocean's interior. The integrated nature of such measurements makes acoustic thermometry a powerful application for monitoring regional to basin-averaged hydrographic changes in the ocean, a measurement that is difficult to achieve by individual “point” measurements (moorings, ship-borne CTD casts, or autonomous floats) alone. This work models acoustic travel times corresponding to eigenrays between a fixed source and receiver from an evolving ocean state. Inclusive computation of acoustic travel times within a dynamically evolving modeled ocean state provide a novel approach to model data comparison within a general ocean circulation model. An adjoint assimilation framework combines observations with numerical models to estimate and update oceanic state variables Forget et al. (2015). This process provides the necessary operators for model data comparison of ocean acoustic observable quantities within a consistent state estimation framework allowing for data assimilation from acoustic tomography measurements.

Northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension during 1993–2021

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) flows eastward at the northern boundary of the North Pacific subtropical gyre. By transporting large amounts of seawater with heat, the KE contributes significantly to the formation of sea surface temperature (SST) fields. Recently, poleward shifts of major ocean gyres in the world ocean, including the North Pacific subtropical gyre, have been highlighted based on basin-scale changes in SST and sea surface height (SSH) distributions. However, a detailed investigation of the long-term meridional KE movement has not been presented. Investigation of KE path changes helps provide insights into long-term changes in the physical fields in the western North Pacific. In this study, we identified the KE path from satellite-derived SSH and surface current velocity data using a front identification method and showed that the KE migrated northward by approximately 210 km during 1993–2021. We further explored the cause of the northward KE shift based on atmospheric reanalysis data and numerical experiments using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. It was revealed that the northward KE shift is mostly caused by the trend of wind stress curl in the North Pacific during 1993–2021.

The Effects of Wave-Induced Stokes Drift and Mixing Induced by Nonbreaking Surface Waves on the Ocean in a Climate System Ocean Model

Oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs) are important tools used to investigate mechanisms for ocean climate variability and predict the ocean change in the future. However, in most current ocean models, the impact of sea surface waves as one of the most significant dynamic processes in the upper ocean is absent. In this study, the Stokes drift and the vertical mixing induced by nonbreaking surface waves derived from the wave model (WAVEWATCH III) are incorporated into a Climate System Ocean Model, and their effects on an ocean climate simulation are analyzed. Numerical experiments show that both physical processes can improve the simulation of sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Southern Hemisphere. The introduction of Stokes drift effectively reduces the subsurface warm bias in the equatorial tropics, which is caused by the weakening of vertical mixing in the equatorial region. The nonbreaking surface wave mainly reduces the temperature bias in the Southern Ocean by enhancing mixing in the upper ocean. For the MLD, the Stokes drift mainly improves the simulation of the winter MLD, and the nonbreaking surface wave improves the summer MLD. For MLD south of 40° S in summer, the introduction of nonbreaking surface waves resulted in a reduction of 11.86 m in MLD bias and 7.8 m in root mean square errors (RMSEs), respectively. For winter subtropical MLD in the Southern Hemisphere, considering the Stokes drift, the MLD bias and RMSEs were reduced by 2.49 and 5.39 m, respectively. Adding these two physical processes simultaneously provides the best simulation performance for the structure of the upper layer. The introduction of sea surface waves effectively modulates the vertical mixing of the upper ocean and then improves the simulation of the MLD. Thus, sea surface waves are very important for ocean simulation, so we will further couple a sea waves model in the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model (CAS-ESM) as part of their default model component.

Open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O, version icon-2.6.6

Abstract. This paper evaluates barotropic tides simulated by a newly developed multi-layer ocean general circulation, ICON-O, and assesses processes and model configurations that can impact the quality of the simulated tides. Such an investigation is crucial for applications addressing internal tides that are much more difficult to evaluate than the barotropic tides. Although not specially tuned for tides and not constrained by any observations, ICON-O is capable of producing the main features of the open-ocean barotropic tides as described by the geographical distributions of amplitude, phase, and amphidromic points. An error analysis shows, however, that the open-ocean tides simulated by ICON-O are less accurate than those simulated by two other ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), especially when not properly adjusting the time step and the parameters used in the time-stepping scheme. Based on a suite of tidal experiments, we show that an increase in horizontal resolution only improves tides in shallow waters. Relevant for using ICON-O with its telescoping grid capacity, we show that spatial inhomogeneity does not deteriorate the quality of the simulated tides. We further show that implementing a parameterization of topographic wave drag improves the quality of the simulated tides in deep ocean independent of the model configuration used, whereas the implementation of a self-attraction and loading (SAL) parameterization in a low-resolution (40 km) version of ICON-O degrades the quality of tides in shallow ocean. Finally, we show that the quality of tides simulated by ICON-O with low resolution (40 km) can be significantly improved by adjusting the time step or the parameters in the time-stepping scheme used for obtaining the model solution.

Diurnal coastal trapped waves propagating along the east coast of the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan

In this study, we investigated diurnal coastal trapped waves in the eastern coastal area of the Shimokita Peninsula near the Tsugaru Strait. The coastal trapped waves in this area have not yet been observed. We observed current velocities at three sites on the coast to clarify the propagation and seasonal features. We also used an ocean general circulation model to determine the detailed structure and the causes underlying the seasonal characteristics of the waves. The coastal trapped waves propagated southward along the coast from the strait, where significant tidal currents exist. Coastal trapped waves depend on cross-shelf length and stratification strength. The coastal trapped waves propagate as internal Kelvin waves from summer to early winter in the northern part of the peninsula (where the shelf is narrow) and as shelf waves in the southern part (where the shelf is wide). From late winter to spring, the coastal trapped waves practically disappear in the northern part of the peninsula owing to the vertical uniform density off the east coast and the small cross-shelf width in the northern part. In autumn, the tidal current flows north of the sill near Cape Shiriya at the eastern mouth of the straits owing to the northward shift of the Tsugaru Warm Current in the strait; thus, the coastal trapped waves along the Shimokita coast weaken.

Comparison between statistical and dynamical downscaling of rainfall over the Gwadar‐Ormara basin, Pakistan

AbstractThis paper evaluated and compared the performance of a statistical downscaling method and a dynamical downscaling method to simulate the spatial–temporal rainfall distribution. Outputs from RegCM4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the CanESM2 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) were selected for the data scarce Gwadar‐Ormara basin, Pakistan. The evaluation was based on the climatological average and standard deviation for historic (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The performance evaluation showed that statistical downscaling is preferred to simulate and project rainfall patterns in the study area. Additionally, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) showed low R2 values in calibration and validation of the simulations with respect to observed data for the historic period. Overall, SDSM generated satisfactory results in simulating the monthly rainfall cycle of the entire basin. In this study, RegCM4 showed large rainfall errors and missed one rainfall season in the historic period. This study also explored whether the grid‐based rainfall time series of the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Daily Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset could be used to enlarge and complement the sample of in situ observed rainfall time series. A spatial correlogram was used for observed and APHRODITE rainfall data to assess the consistency between the two data sources, which resulted in rejecting APHRODITE data. For the future time period (2041–2070) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, rainfall projections did not show significant difference for both downscaling approaches. This may relate to the driving model (CanESM2 AOGCM) and not necessarily suggests poor performance of downscaling; either statistical or dynamical. Hence, the study recommends evaluating a multi‐model ensemble including other GCMs and RCMs for the same area of study.

Impact of vertical resolution on representing baroclinic modes and water mass distribution in the North Atlantic

In contrast to the large volume of studies on the impact of horizontal resolution in oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), the impact of vertical resolution has been largely overlooked and there is no consensus on how one should construct the vertical grid to represent the vertical structure of the baroclinic modes as well as the distribution of distinct water masses throughout the global ocean. In this paper, we document the importance of vertical resolution in the representations of vertical modes and water masses in the North Atlantic and show i) that vertical resolution is unlikely to undermine the resolution capability of the horizontal grid in representing the vertical modes and a 32-layer isopycnal configuration is adequate to represent the first five baroclinic modes in mid-latitudes and ii) that vertical resolution should focus on representing water masses. A coarse vertical resolution (16-layer) simulation exhibits virtually no transport in the dense overflow water which leads to a weaker and significantly shallower Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) despite resolving the first baroclinic mode throughout the domain, whereas there are overall very small differences in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic circulation in the simulations with finer vertical resolution (24 to 96 layers). We argue that accurately representing the water masses is more important than representing the baroclinic modes for an OGCM in modeling the low-frequency large-scale circulation.

Role of the tropical Indian Ocean in orbitally induced mid-Holocene precipitation variation in northwest China

Investigating long-term natural precipitation variability in Northwest China is crucial for our understanding of the recent wetting trend in this region. This study explores the mechanisms of precipitation variations in Northwest China during the mid-Holocene (MH) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We emphasize the role of ocean feedbacks in the response of precipitation changes in the summer half-year (April–September; the rainy season of Northwest China) to orbital forcing, via comparing simulation results from the single atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) and fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) of the CESM. The AOGCM simulations reveal a decrease of precipitation in Northwest China during the MH compared to the pre-Industrial (PI) era, matching well with proxy records. The drier MH is reproduced by the AGCM with orbital forcing when the tropical Indian Ocean cooling is taken into account. The tropical Indian Ocean cooling is affected by the decrease of spring insolation, contrasting to Eurasian warming caused by the increase of summer insolation during the MH. The tropical Indian Ocean cooling contributes to a reduction of the upper-level westerlies to the south of the westerly jet axis and hence a northward shift of the westerly jet during the MH relative to the PI, via amplifying the decrease of meridional thermal gradient from the tropical Indian Ocean to northern Eurasia and weakening the strength of the South Asian high. The northward migration of the westerly jet benefits anomalous downward motion and ultimately weakens precipitation in Northwest China during the MH. Therefore, the tropical Indian Ocean plays an important role in orbital forcing of MH precipitation variations in Northwest China. We further infer that abnormal warming of the tropical Indian Ocean is probably a key factor for the recent wetting trend in Northwest China.

MARINE RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION IN POLAR REGIONS: A SIMPLE APPROXIMATE APPROACH USING MARINE20

ABSTRACTThe Marine20 radiocarbon (14C) age calibration curve, and all earlier marine 14C calibration curves from the IntCal group, must be used extremely cautiously for the calibration of marine 14C samples from polar regions (outside ∼ 40ºS–40ºN) during glacial periods. Calibrating polar 14C marine samples from glacial periods against any Marine calibration curve (Marine20 or any earlier product) using an estimate of ${\rm{\Delta R}}$, the regional 14C depletion adjustment, that has been obtained from samples in the recent (non-glacial) past is likely to lead to bias and overconfidence in the calibrated age. We propose an approach to calibration that aims to address this by accounting for the possibility of additional, localized, glacial 14C depletion in polar oceans. We suggest, for a specific polar location, bounds on the value of ${\rm{\Delta }}{{\rm{R}}_{20}}\left( {\rm{\theta }} \right)$ during a glacial period. The lower bound ${\rm{\Delta R}}_{20}^{{\rm{Hol}}}$ may be based on 14C samples from the recent non-glacial (Holocene) past and corresponds to a low-depletion glacial scenario. The upper bound, ${\rm{\Delta R}}_{20}^{{\rm{GS}}}$, representing a high-depletion scenario is found by increasing ${\rm{\Delta R}}_{20}^{{\rm{Hol}}}$ according to the latitude of the 14C sample to be calibrated. The suggested increases to obtain ${\rm{\Delta R}}_{20}^{{\rm{GS}}}$ are based upon simulations of the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model (LSG OGCM). Calibrating against the Marine20 curve using the upper and lower ${\rm{\Delta }}{{\rm{R}}_{20}}$ bounds provide estimates of calibrated ages for glacial 14C samples in high- and low-depletion scenarios which should bracket the true calendar age of the sample. In some circumstances, users may be able to determine which depletion scenario is more appropriate using independent paleoclimatic or proxy evidence.