Ocean CO2 Flux Research Articles

Direct observational evidence of strong CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean.

The Southern Ocean is the primary region for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and is, therefore, crucial for Earth's climate. However, the Southern Ocean CO2 flux estimates reveal substantial uncertainties and lack direct validation. Using seven independent and directly measured air-sea CO2 flux datasets, we identify a 25% stronger CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean than shipboard dataset-based flux estimates. Accounting for upper ocean temperature gradients and insufficient temporal resolution of flux products can bridge this flux gap. The gas transfer velocity parameterization is not the main reason for the flux disagreement. The profiling float data-based flux products and biogeochemistry models considerably underestimate the observed CO2 uptake, which may be due to the lack of representation of small-scale high-flux events. Our study suggests that the Southern Ocean may take up more CO2 than previously recognized, and that temperature corrections should be considered, and a higher resolution is needed in data-based bulk flux estimates.

Machine learning reveals regime shifts in future ocean carbon dioxide fluxes inter-annual variability

The inter-annual variability of global ocean air-sea CO2 fluxes are non-negligible, modulates the global warming signal, and yet it is poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). ESMs are highly sophisticated and computationally demanding, making it challenging to perform dedicated experiments to investigate the key drivers of the CO2 flux variability across spatial and temporal scales. Machine learning methods can objectively and systematically explore large datasets, ensuring physically meaningful results. Here, we show that a kernel ridge regression can reconstruct the present and future CO2 flux variability in five ESMs. Surface concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity emerge as the critical drivers, but the former is projected to play a lesser role in the future due to decreasing vertical gradient. Our results demonstrate a new approach to efficiently interpret the massive datasets produced by ESMs, and offer guidance into future model development to better constrain the CO2 flux.

A regional pCO2 climatology of the Baltic Sea from in situ pCO2 observations and a model-based extrapolation approach

Abstract. Ocean surface pCO2 estimates are of great interest for the calculation of air–sea CO2 fluxes, oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, and eventually the Global Carbon Budget. They are accessible from direct observations, which are discrete in space and time and thus always sparse, or from biogeochemical models, which only approximate reality. Here, a combined method for the extrapolation of pCO2 observations is presented that uses (1) model-based patterns of variability from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of variability with (2) observational data to constrain EOF pattern amplitudes in (3) an ensemble approach, which locally adjusts the spatial scale of the mapping to the density of the observations. Thus, data-constrained, gap- and discontinuity-free mapped fields including local error estimates are obtained without the need for or dependence on ancillary data (e.g. satellite sea surface temperature maps). This extrapolation approach is generic in that it can be applied to any oceanic or coastal region covered by a suitable model and observations. It is used here to establish a regional pCO2 climatology of the Baltic Sea (Bittig et al., 2023: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.961119), largely based on ICOS-DE ship of opportunity (SOOP) Finnmaid surface pCO2 observations between Lübeck-Travemünde (Germany) and Helsinki (Finland). The climatology can serve as improved input for atmosphere–ocean CO2 flux estimation in this coastal environment.

Near-real-time CO2 fluxes from CarbonTracker Europe for high-resolution atmospheric modeling

Abstract. We present the CarbonTracker Europe High-Resolution (CTE-HR) system that estimates carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange over Europe at high resolution (0.1 × 0.2∘) and in near real time (about 2 months' latency). It includes a dynamic anthropogenic emission model, which uses easily available statistics on economic activity, energy use, and weather to generate anthropogenic emissions with dynamic time profiles at high spatial and temporal resolution (0.1×0.2∘, hourly). Hourly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) calculated by the Simple Biosphere model Version 4 (SiB4) is driven by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset. This NEP is downscaled to 0.1×0.2∘ using the high-resolution Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover map and combined with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) fire emissions to create terrestrial carbon fluxes. Ocean CO2 fluxes are included in our product, based on Jena CarboScope ocean CO2 fluxes, which are downscaled using wind speed and temperature. Jointly, these flux estimates enable modeling of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions over Europe. We assess the skill of the CTE-HR CO2 fluxes (a) to reproduce observed anomalies in biospheric fluxes and atmospheric CO2 mole fractions during the 2018 European drought, (b) to capture the reduction of anthropogenic emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns, (c) to match mole fraction observations at Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) sites across Europe after atmospheric transport with the Transport Model, version 5 (TM5) and the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT), driven by ECMWF-IFS, and (d) to capture the magnitude and variability of measured CO2 fluxes in the city center of Amsterdam (the Netherlands). We show that CTE-HR fluxes reproduce large-scale flux anomalies reported in previous studies for both biospheric fluxes (drought of 2018) and anthropogenic emissions (COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). After applying transport of emitted CO2, the CTE-HR fluxes have lower median root mean square errors (RMSEs) relative to mole fraction observations than fluxes from a non-informed flux estimate, in which biosphere fluxes are scaled to match the global growth rate of CO2 (poor person's inversion). RMSEs are close to those of the reanalysis with the CTE data assimilation system. This is encouraging given that CTE-HR fluxes did not profit from the weekly assimilation of CO2 observations as in CTE. We furthermore compare CO2 concentration observations at the Dutch Lutjewad coastal tower with high-resolution STILT transport to show that the high-resolution fluxes manifest variability due to different emission sectors in summer and winter. Interestingly, in periods where synoptic-scale transport variability dominates CO2 concentration variations, the CTE-HR fluxes perform similarly to low-resolution fluxes (5–10× coarsened). The remaining 10 % of the simulated CO2 mole fraction differs by >2 ppm between the low-resolution and high-resolution flux representation and is clearly associated with coherent structures (“plumes”) originating from emission hotspots such as power plants. We therefore note that the added resolution of our product will matter most for very specific locations and times when used for atmospheric CO2 modeling. Finally, in a densely populated region like the Amsterdam city center, our modeled fluxes underestimate the magnitude of measured eddy covariance fluxes but capture their substantial diurnal variations in summertime and wintertime well. We conclude that our product is a promising tool for modeling the European carbon budget at a high resolution in near real time. The fluxes are freely available from the ICOS Carbon Portal (CC-BY-4.0) to be used for near-real-time monitoring and modeling, for example, as an a priori flux product in a CO2 data assimilation system. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/20Z1-AYJ2 (van der Woude, 2022a).

The Deep Ocean's Carbon Exhaust.

The deep ocean releases large amounts of old, pre‐industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere through upwelling in the Southern Ocean, which counters the marine carbon uptake occurring elsewhere. This Southern Ocean CO2 release is relevant to the global climate because its changes could alter atmospheric CO2 levels on long time scales, and also affects the present‐day potential of the Southern Ocean to take up anthropogenic CO2. Here, year‐round profiling float measurements show that this CO2 release arises from a zonal band of upwelling waters between the Subantarctic Front and wintertime sea‐ice edge. This band of high CO2 subsurface water coincides with the outcropping of the 27.8 kg m−3 isoneutral density surface that characterizes Indo‐Pacific Deep Water (IPDW). It has a potential partial pressure of CO2 exceeding current atmospheric CO2 levels (∆PCO2) by 175 ± 32 μatm. Ship‐based measurements reveal that IPDW exhibits a distinct ∆PCO2 maximum in the ocean, which is set by remineralization of organic carbon and originates from the northern Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. Below this IPDW layer, the carbon content increases downwards, whereas ∆PCO2 decreases. Most of this vertical ∆PCO2 decline results from decreasing temperatures and increasing alkalinity due to an increased fraction of calcium carbonate dissolution. These two factors limit the CO2 outgassing from the high‐carbon content deep waters on more southerly surface outcrops. Our results imply that the response of Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes to possible future changes in upwelling are sensitive to the subsurface carbon chemistry set by the vertical remineralization and dissolution profiles.

Carbon Fluxes in the Coastal Ocean: Synthesis, Boundary Processes, and Future Trends

This review examines the current understanding of the global coastal ocean carbon cycle and provides a new quantitative synthesis of air-sea CO2 exchange. This reanalysis yields an estimate for the globally integrated coastal ocean CO2 flux of −0.25 ± 0.05 Pg C year−1, with polar and subpolar regions accounting for most of the CO2 removal (>90%). A framework that classifies river-dominated ocean margin (RiOMar) and ocean-dominated margin (OceMar) systems is used to conceptualizecoastal carbon cycle processes. The carbon dynamics in three contrasting case study regions, the Baltic Sea, the Mid-Atlantic Bight, and the South China Sea, are compared in terms of the spatio-temporal variability of surface pCO2. Ocean carbon models that range from box models to three-dimensional coupled circulation-biogeochemical models are reviewed in terms of the ability to simulate key processes and project future changes in different continental shelf regions. Common unresolved challenges remain for implementation of these models across RiOMar and OceMar systems. The long-term trends in coastal ocean carbon fluxes for different coastal systems under anthropogenic stress that are emerging in observations and numerical simulations are highlighted. Knowledge gaps in projecting future perturbations associated with before and after net-zero CO2 emissions in the context of concurrent changes in the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system pose a key challenge. ▪ A new synthesis yields an estimate for a globally integrated coastal ocean carbon sink of −0.25 Pg C year−1, with greater than 90% of atmospheric CO2 removal occurring in polar and subpolar regions. ▪ The sustained coastal and open ocean carbon sink is vital in mitigating climate change and meeting the target set by the Paris Agreement. ▪ Uncertainties in the future coastal ocean carbon cycle are associated with concurrent trends and changes in the land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system. ▪ The major gaps and challenges identified for current coastal ocean carbon research have important implications for climate and sustainability policies.

Benefits of satellite XCO2 and newly proposed atmospheric CO2 observation network over India in constraining regional CO2 fluxes

Top-down modeling estimates are among the most reliable information available on the CO2 fluxes of the earth system. The inadequate coverage of CO2 observing stations over the tropical regions adds a limitation to this estimate, especially when the satellite XCO2 is strictly screened for cloud contamination, aerosol, dust, etc. In this study, we investigated the potential benefit of a global ground-based observing station network, 17 newly proposed stations over India, and global satellite XCO2 in reducing the uncertainty of terrestrial biospheric fluxes of Tropical Asia-Eurasia in TransCom cyclo-stationary inversion. The data from selected 80 global ground-based CO2 observation stations, together with two additional stations from India (i.e., Cape Rama and Sinhagad) and satellite XCO2, helps to reduce the temperate Eurasian terrestrial flux uncertainty by 23.8%, 26.4%, and 36.2%, respectively. This further improved to 54.7% by adding the newly proposed stations over India into the inversion. By separating the Indian sub-continent from temperate Eurasia (as inspired by the heterogeneity in the terrestrial ecosystems, prevailing meteorological conditions, and the orography of this vast region), the inversion evinces the capacity of existing CO2 observations to reduce the Indian terrestrial flux uncertainty by 20.5%. The largest benefit (70% reduction of annual mean uncertainty) for estimating Indian terrestrial fluxes could be achieved by combining these global observations with data from the newly proposed stations over India. The existing two stations from India suggest Temperate Eurasia as a mild source of CO2 (0.33 ± 0.57 Pg C yr−1), albeit with prominent anthropogenic influences visible in these two stations during the dry seasons. This implies that the proposed new stations should be cautiously placed to avoid such effects. The study also finds that the newly proposed stations over India also have an impact in constraining nearby oceanic CO2 fluxes.

Future Weakening of the ENSO Ocean Carbon Buffer Under Anthropogenic Forcing

AbstractThe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest driver of atmospheric CO2 interannual variability. The equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is a natural source of CO2 to the atmosphere, acts as a buffer of the terrestrial variations by releasing less CO2 during El Niño events and releasing more CO2 during La Niña events. Here, we examine how this ocean carbon buffer will respond to high anthropogenic emissions using Earth system models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The models project weaker ocean CO2 flux anomalies in the future due to two main factors: a stronger compensation between thermal and nonthermal changes in ocean biogeochemistry (55% of signal) and a weaker influence of ENSO on the CO2 transfer across the air‐sea interface (10%–25% of signal). The ocean would no longer buffer the land response to ENSO, and could even reinforce its impact on atmospheric CO2, amplifying the atmospheric carbon variability on interannual timescales.

Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework

AbstractOn interannual timescales the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to climate variability. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this variability limits the predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Using perfect‐model Earth System Model simulations, we show that variations in atmospheric CO2 are potentially predictable for 3 years. We find a 2‐year predictability horizon for global oceanic CO2 flux with longer regional predictability of up to 7 years. The 2‐year predictability horizon of terrestrial CO2 flux originates in the tropics and midlatitudes. With the predictability of the isolated effects of land and ocean carbon sink on atmospheric CO2 of 5 and 12 years respectively, land dampens the overall predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Our research shows the potential of Earth System Model‐based predictions to forecast multiyear variations in atmospheric CO2.

Effect of terrestrial organic matter on ocean acidification and CO2 flux in an Arctic shelf sea

Recent research has focused on the changing ability of oceans to absorb atmospheric CO2 and the consequences for ocean acidification, with Arctic shelf seas being among the most sensitive regions. Hudson Bay is a large shelf sea in northern Canada whose location at the margin of the cryosphere places it in the vanguard of global climate change. Here, we develop a four-compartment box-model and carbon budget using published and recently collected measurements to estimate carbon inputs, transformations, and losses within Hudson Bay. We estimate the annual effects of terrestrial carbon remineralization on aragonite saturation (ΩAr, a proxy for ocean acidification) and on the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2, a proxy for air-sea CO2 flux) within each compartment, as well as the effects of marine primary production, marine organic carbon remineralization, and terrestrial calcium carbonate dissolution. We find that the remineralization of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon is the main driver of CO2 accumulation and aragonite under-saturation in coastal surface waters, but this is largely offset by marine primary production. Below the surface mixed layer, marine organic carbon remineralization is the largest contributor to CO2 accumulation and aragonite under-saturation, and is partially offset by terrestrial CaCO3 dissolution. Overall, the annual delivery and processing of carbon reduces ΩAr of water flowing through HB by up to 0.17 units and raises pCO2 by up to 165 µatm. The similarities between Hudson Bay and other Arctic shelf seas suggest these areas are also significantly influenced by terrestrial carbon inputs and transformation.

A Surface Ocean CO2 Reference Network, SOCONET and Associated Marine Boundary Layer CO2 Measurements

The Surface Ocean CO2 NETwork (SOCONET) and Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) CO2 measurements from ships and buoys focus on the operational aspects of measurements of CO2 in both the ocean surface and atmospheric marine boundary layers. The focus is on providing accurate pCO2 data to within 2 micro atmosphere (µatm) for surface ocean and 0.2 parts per million (ppm) for MBL measurements following rigorous best practices, calibration and intercomparison procedures. Platforms and data will be tracked in near real-time and final quality-controlled data will be provided to the community within a year. The network involving partners worldwide will enable production of important products such as maps of monthly resolved surface ocean CO2 and air-sea CO2 flux measurements. These products and other derivatives using surface ocean and MBL CO2 data, such as surface ocean pH maps and MBL CO2 maps, will be of high value for policy assessments and socio-economic decisions regarding the role of the ocean in sequestering anthropogenic CO2 and how this uptake is impacting ocean health by ocean acidification. SOCONET has an open ocean emphasis and aims to work closely with regional (coastal) networks and liaise with intergovernmental science organizations such as Global Atmosphere watch (GAW), and the joint WMO-IOC committee for and ocean and [marine] meteorology (JCO[M]M). Here we describe the details of this emerging network and its proposed operations and practices.

Impact of Near‐Inertial Waves on Vertical Mixing and Air‐Sea CO2 Fluxes in the Southern Ocean

AbstractWe report the significant impact of near‐inertial waves (NIWs) on vertical mixing and air‐sea carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in the Southern Ocean using a biogeochemical model coupled to an eddy‐rich ocean circulation model. The effects of high‐frequency processes are quantified by comparing the fully coupled solution (ONLINE) to two offline simulations based on 5‐day‐averaged output of the ONLINE simulation: one that uses vertical mixing archived from the ONLINE model (CTRL) and another in which vertical mixing is recomputed from the 5‐day average hydrodynamic fields (5dAVG). In this latter simulation, processes with temporal variabilities of a few days including NIWs are excluded in the biogeochemical simulation. Suppression of these processes reduces vertical shear and vertical mixing in the upper ocean, leading to decreased supply of carbon‐rich water from below, less CO2 outgassing in austral winter, and more uptake in summer. The net change amounts up to one third of the seasonal variability in Southern Ocean CO2 flux. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of resolving high‐frequency processes such as NIWs to better estimate the carbon cycle in numerical model simulations.

The Macquarie Island (LoFlo2G) high-precision continuous atmospheric carbon dioxide record

Abstract. The Southern Ocean (south of 30∘ S) is a key global-scale sink of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the isolated and inhospitable nature of this environment has restricted the number of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 measurements in this region. This has limited the scientific community's ability to investigate trends and seasonal variability of the sink. Compared to regions further north, the near-absence of terrestrial CO2 exchange and strong large-scale zonal mixing demands unusual inter-site measurement precision to help distinguish the presence of midlatitude to high latitude ocean exchange from large CO2 fluxes transported southwards in the atmosphere. Here we describe a continuous, in situ, ultra-high-precision Southern Ocean region CO2 record, which ran at Macquarie Island (54∘37′ S, 158∘52′ E) from 2005 to 2016 using a LoFlo2 instrument, along with its calibration strategy, uncertainty analysis and baseline filtering procedures. Uncertainty estimates calculated for minute and hourly frequency data range from 0.01 to 0.05 µmol mol−1 depending on the averaging period and application. Higher precisions are applicable when comparing Macquarie Island LoFlo measurements to those of similar instruments on the same internal laboratory calibration scale and more uncertain values are applicable when comparing to other networks. Baseline selection is designed to remove measurements that are influenced by local Macquarie Island CO2 sources, with effective removal achieved using a within-minute CO2 standard deviation metric. Additionally, measurements that are influenced by CO2 fluxes from Australia or other Southern Hemisphere land masses are effectively removed using model-simulated radon concentration. A comparison with flask records of atmospheric CO2 at Macquarie Island highlights the limitation of the flask record (due to corrections for storage time and limited temporal coverage) when compared to the new high-precision, continuous record: the new record shows much less noisy seasonal variations than the flask record. As such, this new record is ideal for improving our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 flux, particularly when combined with data from similar instruments at other Southern Hemispheric locations.

Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations

Abstract. Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere–ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a – perhaps accelerated – continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere–ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere–ocean system.

Multi-decadal variations in the oceanic CO2 uptake and biogeochemical parameters over the northern and southern high latitudes

The Community Earth System Model with the biogeochemistry module (CESM1-BGC) was used with the historical and RCP8.5 scenario to examine the spatial and temporal variability in the oceanic CO2 flux and biogeochemical parameters for the years 1850–2100. The 10-year periods of 1850–1860, 2010–2020, and 2090–2100 were used to represent the oceanic conditions in the past (historical), present, and future climate, respectively. The model simulations showed interesting differences between CO2 flux and biogeochemical parameters in the northern (NH) and southern (SH) high latitude oceanic regions. The sea surface temperature increases monotonically during 1960–2100 in both the hemispheres. The enhanced CO2 concentrations in the air lead to an increase in CO2 flux into the SH high-latitudes resulting into increasing oceanic acidification. However, over the NH high latitudes, the increase in CO2 flux ceased by the year 2050 and decreased during 2080–2100. This decrease in the CO2 flux of Arctic waters could be associated with the freshwater addition due to ice-melt that reduces the mixed layer depth in northern high latitudes and decreases CO2 uptake in future climate. The biological productivity (Chl concentrations) in the NH high latitudes found to decrease rapidly (2.5 mg m−3 lower than present) during 2000–2100. The time-series analysis of biogeochemical parameters at three regions in each hemisphere reveals marked differences over different oceanic regions within the same hemisphere in addition to the inter-hemispheric differences. The changes in large-scale overturning circulation and enhanced stratification leads to a reduction in nutrient supply to surface waters from deeper layers and decreases Chl concentration in the NH region. The mixing caused by Antarctic circumpolar current plays crucial role in maintaining Chl concentrations in the southern ocean. The multi-decadal spatiotemporal variability in physical and biogeochemical parameters are discussed in terms of their inter-dependence, oceanic processes, air-sea exchange in the warming climate.

A source of CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year in the Maranhense continental shelf (2°30'S, Brazil)

To reduce uncertainty regarding the contribution of continental shelf areas in low latitude regions to the air-sea CO2 exchange, more data are required to understand the carbon turnover in these regions and cover gaps in coverage. For the first time, inorganic carbon and alkalinity were measured along a cross-shelf transect off the coast of Maranhão (North Brazil) in 9 cruises spawning from April 2013 to September 2014. On the last 4 transects, dissolved organic matter and nutrients were also measured. The highest inorganic and organic carbon concentrations are observed close to land. As a result of low productivity and significant remineralization, heterotrophy dominates along the transect throughout the year. Although the temporal variability is significantly reduced at the offshore station with carbon concentrations decreasing seaward, the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) at this station remains significantly higher, especially during the wet season, than the open ocean values measured routinely by a merchant ship further west. Overall, the continental shelf is a weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year with an annual mean flux of 1.81±0.84mmolm−2d−1. The highest magnitudes of fCO2 are observed during the wet season when the winds are the weakest. As a result, the CO2 flux does not show a clear seasonal pattern. Further offshore, fCO2 is significantly lower than on the continental shelf. However, the oceanic CO2 flux, with an annual mean of 2.32±1.09mmolm−2d−1, is not statistically different from the CO2 flux at the continental shelf because the wind is stronger in the open ocean.

Seasonal and short-term variations in atmospheric potential oxygen at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

Oxygen in the atmosphere undergoes variations and changes in response to biospheric activities, ocean–atmosphere exchange and fossil fuel combustion. Continuous in situ measurements of atmospheric δ(O2/N2) and CO2 mole fraction were started at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (78.93°N, 11.83°E, 40 m a.s.l.) in November 2012. Atmospheric potential oxygen (APO) calculated from the measured O2 and CO2 values during November 2012–January 2015 show a clear seasonal cycle with a peak-to-peak amplitude of approximately 50 per meg. The seasonal cycle of APO simulated using an atmospheric transport model, with prescribed oceanic O2, N2 and CO2 fluxes at monthly time intervals, is in excellent agreement with the observed APO. However, in spring and early summer, high values of APO are observed irregularly on a timescale of hours to days. By comparing backward trajectories of air parcels released from the site with distributions of marine net primary production (NPP), and tagged tracer experiments made using the atmospheric transport model for APO, it is found that these high APO fluctuations are primarily attributable to O2 emissions from the Greenland Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, due to marine biological productivity. Marine net community production, estimated based on the sea-to-air O2 flux derived from observed APO fluctuations, agrees with NPP obtained from satellite observations within an order of magnitude. The results obtained in this study have still some uncertainties, but our continuous observations of atmospheric δ(O2/N2) and CO2 mole fraction at Ny-Ålesund can play an important role in detecting possible changes in the carbon cycle in the near future.

An observing system simulation for Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake.

The Southern Ocean is critically important to the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. Up to half of the excess CO2 currently in the ocean entered through the Southern Ocean. That uptake helps to maintain the global carbon balance and buffers transient climate change from fossil fuel emissions. However, the future evolution of the uptake is uncertain, because our understanding of the dynamics that govern the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake is incomplete. Sparse observations and incomplete model formulations limit our ability to constrain the monthly and annual uptake, interannual variability and long-term trends. Float-based sampling of ocean biogeochemistry provides an opportunity for transforming our understanding of the Southern Ocean CO2 flux. In this work, we review current estimates of the CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and projections of its response to climate change. We then show, via an observational system simulation experiment, that float-based sampling provides a significant opportunity for measuring the mean fluxes and monitoring the mean uptake over decadal scales.

Roles of biological and physical processes in driving seasonal air–sea CO2 flux in the Southern Ocean: New insights from CARIOCA pCO2

On a mean annual basis, the Southern Ocean is a sink for atmospheric CO2. However the seasonality of the air–sea CO2 flux in this region is poorly documented. We investigate processes regulating air–sea CO2 flux in a large area of the Southern Ocean (38°S–55°S, 60°W–60°E) that represents nearly one third of the subantarctic zone. A seasonal budget of CO2 partial pressure, pCO2 and of dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC in the mixed layer is assessed by quantifying the impacts of biology, physics and thermodynamical effect on seawater pCO2. A focus is made on the quantification at a monthly scale of the biological consumption as it is the dominant process removing carbon from surface waters. In situ biological carbon production rates are estimated from high frequency estimates of DIC along the trajectories of CARIOCA drifters in the Atlantic and Indian sector of the Southern Ocean during four spring–summer seasons over the 2006–2009 period. Net community production (NCP) integrated over the mixed layer is derived from the daily change of DIC, and mixed layer depth estimated from Argo profiles. Eleven values of NCP are estimated and range from 30 to 130mmolCm−2d−1. They are used as a constraint for validating satellite net primary production (NPP). A satellite data-based global model is used to compute depth integrated net primary production, NPP, for the same periods along the trajectories of the buoys. Realistic NCP/NPP ratios are obtained under the condition that the SeaWiFS chlorophyll are corrected by a factor of ≈2–3, which is an underestimation previously reported for the Southern Ocean. Monthly satellite based NPP are computed over the 38°S–55°S, 60°W–60°E area. pCO2 derived from these NPP combined with an export ratio, and taking into account the impact of physics and thermodynamics is in good agreement with the pCO2 seasonal climatology of Takahashi (2009). On an annual timescale, mean NCP values, 4.4 to 4.9molCm−2yr−1 are ≈4–5 times greater than air–sea CO2 invasion, 1.0molCm−2yr−1. Our study based on in situ and satellite observations provides a quantitative estimate of both seasonal and mean annual uptake of CO2 in the subantarctic zone of the Southern Ocean. These results bring important constraints for ocean circulation and biogeochemical models investigating future changes in the Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes.

On understanding the land–ocean CO2 contrast over the Bay of Bengal: A case study during 2009 summer monsoon

Ship-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) between 17 July 2009 and 17 Aug 2009 offered an excellent opportunity to evaluate the land-ocean contrast of surface CO2 and facilitated its comparison with model simulated CO2 concentrations. Elevated values of CO2 with large variability near the coastal region and relatively low values with correspondingly lower variability over the open ocean suggest that this observed CO2 variability over the ocean essentially captures the differences in terrestrial and oceanic CO2 fluxes. Although the region under investigation is well known for its atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon during July and August, the limited duration of observations performed from a moving ship in a research cruise, is not able to capture any high-frequency variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But band-passed sea surface temperature and wind anomalies do indicate strong intraseasonal variability over the study region during the observational period. The synoptic data, albeit quite short in duration, thus offer a clear benchmark for abrupt variability of CO2 concentration between land and ocean.