Oceanic Teleconnections Research Articles

Quantifying the internal and external drivers of Southeast Asian rainfall extremes on decadal timescales

Rainfall over mainland Southeast Asia experiences variability on seasonal to decadal timescales in response to a multitude of climate phenomena. Historical records and paleoclimate archives that span the last millennium reveal extreme multi-year rainfall variations that significantly affected the societies of mainland Southeast Asia. Here we utilize the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) to quantify the contributions of internal and external drivers to decadal-scale rainfall extremes in the Southeast Asia region. We find that internal variability was dominant in driving both Southeast Asian drought and pluvial extremes on decadal timescales although external forcing impacts are also detectable. Specifically, rainfall extremes are more sensitive to Pacific Ocean internal variability than the state of the Indian Ocean. This discrepancy is greater for droughts than pluvials which we suggest is attributable to external forcing impacts that counteract the forced Indian Ocean teleconnections to Southeast Asia. Volcanic aerosols, the most effective radiative forcing during the last millennium, contributed to both the Ming Dynasty Drought (1637–1643) and the Strange Parallels Drought (1756–1768). From the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age, we observe a shift in Indo-Pacific teleconnection strength to Southeast Asia consistent with enhanced volcanism during the latter interval. This work not only highlights asymmetries in the drivers of rainfall extremes but also presents a framework for quantifying multivariate drivers of decadal-scale variability and hydroclimatic extremes.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean response of the southwest Pacific to deglacial changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

The last glacial termination was characterised by millennial-scale episodes of warming and cooling that appear offset between the hemispheres. It has been proposed that this bi-polar seesaw is the result of climate system feedbacks. A key debate, which remains unresolved, concerns the relative roles of the atmosphere and oceans in transmitting these climate responses between the hemispheres. In this study we present quantitative climate proxy data to show that air temperatures in New Zealand, as recorded by mountain glaciers, tracked millennial-scale warming and cooling of local surface temperatures of the adjacent Tasman Sea throughout the last glacial termination. Both realms were dominated by warming between 18 ka and 12 ka, interrupted by a multi-centennial to millennial-scale cooling event centred on 14 ka, coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Reconciling our climate proxy evidence with a transient climate model simulation of the glacial termination, we find that the timing and amplitude of temperature changes are consistent with changing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The southwest Pacific region displays a particularly sensitive response to AMOC intensity changes, despite its far-field situation from the North Atlantic. This sensitivity represents the combined impact of fast-acting oceanic teleconnections and regional atmosphere-ocean response associated with changes to the southern westerly winds. Our findings highlight that recent hypotheses promoting the role of southern westerlies as a critical component of deglaciation may be complementary to, rather than competitive with, the bipolar seesaw paradigm.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June–August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST–GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Abrupt intensification of AMOC and monsoonal winds during mid-MIS4 (Heinrich Event 6) in the western Arabian Sea

In the Arabian Sea (AS), higher organic matter preservation and biological productivity are observed during the summer due to strong southwest monsoonal winds. Centennial and millennial-scale fluctuation in the geochemical and relative abundance of foraminifera species are widely used to study the past preservation and productivity variation reconstruction in the Western Arabian Sea (WAS). The sediment records from the AS also show similarities with the North Atlantic and Greenland mainly during Heinrich events (HEs) which is related to the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections of the AS with the higher latitude climate perturbations. In this context, we used a sediment core VM3504-PC from the WAS to understand the long-term changes in productivity and organic matter preservation using Globigerina bulloides (G. bulloides) relative abundance, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) wt%. The TOC and G. bulloides shows a positive correlation, while significantly negative correlation is recorded in the TOC % and CaCO3 wt% datasets during interglacial periods (MIS5e-b, MIS3, and MIS1). Our results show evidence of CaCO3 dissolution and intense summer monsoon induced upwelling related productivity in core location during interglacial periods (MIS5e), based on higher relative abundance of G. bulloides (%), higher TOC content, and lower CaCO3 wt%. Interestingly, higher preservation of organic matter and increased productivity/nutrient concentration during mid-MIS4 suggesting stronger upwelling/winter convective mixing together with higher aeolian transport from adjacent landmasses. The abrupt weakening in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) synchronized with low productivity due to weak monsoon during HEs except for H6 and H4 in the tropical Indian Ocean. The H6 coincides with mid-MIS4 is showing abnormal preservation. Thus, AMOC and the summer monsoon significantly regulate primary productivity in the WAS. It is interesting to note that possibly well‑oxygenated deep-water masses do not penetrate up to surface water and/or ballistic effect (indicated by moderate sedimentation rate), preventing organic matter degradation on the seafloor during mid-MIS4.

Assessing atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the eastern and western Mediterranean over the past 8000 years

Holocene climate records from the Mediterranean are marked by pervasive millennial to centennial-scale climate variability. Here, we investigate East-West Mediterranean atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections by computing phase-relationships between oxygen isotope (δ18O) records generated on Soreq (East) and Chorchia (West) spelaeothems, as well as between δ18O and carbon isotope (δ13C) records from planktonic and benthic foraminifera from core PS009PC (East, Levantin Basin), ODP Site 963D (Central, Sicily Strait), and core KESC9-14 (West, Ligurian Basin). These marine sites are all located at intermediate water depths (560–460 m depth). Hence, the benthic foraminiferal δ18O records reflect mainly the intermediate ocean temperature/δ18O of the water mass, and the benthic δ13C is a proxy for the intensity of water flowing at the studied depth called Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW). For both western and eastern cores, the planktonic stable isotopic records reflect the climate-induced activity of the nearby river system. We find broadly in-phase relationships between the spelaeothem δ18O records and between the planktonic δ18O and δ13C records at most multi-centennial and millennial periodicities. This is indicative of closely linked (hydro-) climatic conditions in Southern Europe, the Levant, and North Africa over the last 8000 years. Conversely, at intermediate water depths, we find a distinct out-of-phase relationship between the East/Central and West Mediterranean benthic δ18O and δ13C records at 1000–2000 years periodicities. We interpret this see-saw pattern as indicative of a persistent regional influence of LIW on oceanographic conditions in the intermediate depths of the eastern basin. Conversely, we suggest a strong influence of the modified Atlantic Ocean inflow (MAW) in the intermediate water formation in the Western Mediterranean (‘Winter Intermediate Water’; WIW). This WIW overprints, at least partially, the LIW signal that reaches the western Mediterranean causing the out-of-phase relationship between the east and the west oceanographic signals at intermediate depths.

Drought in the Breadbasket of America and the Influence of Oceanic Teleconnections

From 1980 to 2020, drought events accounted for only 11.4% of the billion-dollar disasters in the United States (U.S.), yet caused the second-highest total amount in damages, at USD 236.6 billion. With the average cost of a drought being upwards of USD 9.5 billion, these natural disasters can create serious problems in agriculture. Drought is defined as a period of below-average precipitation that causes damage to agriculture and water supplies. Previous research has linked drought events in the U.S. Great Plains to oceanic teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, indicating the influence of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This study looks to identify areas of the Great Plains where drought, as measured by PDSI, has the strongest relationship to ENSO, PDO, and AMO from 1950 to 2019. The states studied are Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas because these rank as the second through seventh most agriculturally productive states in terms of crop and livestock production. Results show that most of this region displays a relationship between drought and the ENSO and PDO, with less of the region displaying a relationship with the AMO.

Bipolar impact and phasing of Heinrich-type climate variability.

During the last ice age, the Laurentide Ice Sheet exhibited extreme iceberg discharge events that are recorded in North Atlantic sediments1. These Heinrich events have far-reaching climate impacts, including widespread disruptions to hydrological and biogeochemical cycles2-4. They occurred during Heinrich stadials-cold periods with strongly weakened Atlantic overturning circulation5-7. Heinrich-type variability is not distinctive in Greenland water isotope ratios, a well-dated site temperature proxy8, complicating efforts to assess their regional climate impact and phasing against Antarctic climate change. Here we show that Heinrich events have no detectable temperature impact on Greenland and cooling occurs at the onset of several Heinrich stadials, and that both types of Heinrich variability have a distinct imprint on Antarctic climate. Antarctic ice cores show accelerated warming that is synchronous with increases in methane during Heinrich events, suggesting an atmospheric teleconnection9, despite the absence of a Greenland climate signal. Greenland ice-core nitrogen stable isotope ratios, a sensitive temperature proxy, indicate an abrupt cooling of about three degrees Celsius at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1 (17.8 thousand years before present, where present isdefined as 1950). Antarctic warming lags this cooling by 133 ± 93 years, consistent with an oceanic teleconnection. Paradoxically, proximal sites are less affected by Heinrich events than remote sites, suggesting spatially complex event dynamics.

Influence of local scale and oceanic teleconnections on regional fire danger and wildfire trends

Studies and observations have pointed out that recent wildfires have been more severe and burned area is increasing in tropical regions. The current study aims at investigating the influence of oceanic climate modes and their teleconnection on global fire danger and trends in the 1980–2020 interval. Disentangling these trends demonstrates that across the extratropics they are primarily related to increases in temperature, whereas in the tropics changes in short-term precipitation distribution dominates the trends. Moreover, the environmental impact of short-term precipitation is dependent on local vegetation type and tightly related to oceanic temperatures far from the burned areas. Indeed, in the 2001–2020 period, a warmer tropical North Atlantic was associated with more fires in the Amazon and Africa, whereas ENSO has weakened the fire activity in equatorial Africa. The remarkable impact of oceanic modes of climate variability in inducing environmental conditions conducive to fires, has particular relevance for the seasonal spatiotemporal wildfire forecasts. Although local aspects are crucial for fire management, long-term predictions should take into account the behavior of potential climate drivers located far from the region of interest. Such teleconnections can be identified ahead of local weather anomalies.

The ENSO-induced South Pacific Meridional Mode

Previous studies have investigated the role of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate mode of the mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, in favoring the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However little is known on how ENSO can influence the development of the PMM. Here we investigate the relationship between ENSO and the South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) focusing on strong SPMM events that follows strong El Niño events. This type of events represents more than 60% of such events in the observational record and the historical simulations of the CESM Large ensemble (CESM-LE). It is first shown that such a relationship is rather stationary in both observations and the CESM-LE. Our analyses further reveal that strong SPMM events are associated with a coastal warming off northern central Chile peaking in Austral winter resulting from the propagation of waves forced at the equator during the development of El Niño events. The time delay between the ENSO peak (Boreal winter) and this coastal warming (Austral winter) can be understood in terms of the differential contribution of the equatorially-forced propagating baroclinic waves to the warming along the coast. In particular, the difference in phase speeds of the waves (the high-order mode the wave the slower) implies that they do not overlap along their propagation south of 20°S. This contributes to the persistence of warm coastal SST anomalies off Central Chile until the Austral summer following the concurrent El Niño event. This coastal warming is favorable to the development of strong SPMM events as the South Pacific Oscillation become active during that season. The analysis of the simulations of the Coupled Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) indicates that very few models realistically simulate this ENSO/SPMM relationship and associated oceanic teleconnection.

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability.

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific-central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical-extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

On the Dynamics of Indian Ocean Teleconnections into the Southern Hemisphere during Austral Winter

Abstract Stationary Rossby waves, forced by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), have an important role in Southern Hemisphere (SH) weather and climate, including promoting Australian drought and driving Antarctic sea ice variations. However, the dynamics of these teleconnections are not fully understood. During winter, the subtropical jet (STJ) should prohibit continuous propagation of a stationary Rossby wave into the SH extratropics due to the negative meridional gradient of absolute vorticity () on its poleward flank. The mechanisms that enable this teleconnection are investigated using observational and reanalysis datasets, a hierarchy of atmospheric model experiments and Rossby wave diagnostics. We conduct 90-member simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, with an imposed local diabatic heating anomaly over the eastern Indian Ocean. We find an initial zonal propagation along the STJ waveguide, but after about 10 days, a poleward-arcing wave train appears in the extratropics that has the characteristics of the observed IOD teleconnection. Our results suggest that the Rossby wave can overcome the negative barrier by (i) propagating directly poleward in the midtroposphere and thus avoiding this evanescent region in the upper troposphere, (ii) partly propagating directly through this barrier, and (iii) propagating around this barrier farther upstream to the west. A transient eddy feedback, previously postulated to be the key mechanism to allow the stationary Rossby wave to appear on the poleward side of the negative region, reinforces the response but is not a requisite, which we confirm through comparison with a simplified linear model.

Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific

Excessive precipitation over the southeastern tropical Pacific is a major common bias that persists through generations of global climate models. While recent studies suggest an overly warm Southern Ocean as the cause, models disagree on the quantitative importance of this remote mechanism in light of ocean circulation feedback. Here, using a multimodel experiment in which the Southern Ocean is radiatively cooled, we show a teleconnection from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific that is mediated by a shortwave subtropical cloud feedback. Cooling the Southern Ocean preferentially cools the southeastern tropical Pacific, thereby shifting the eastern tropical Pacific rainbelt northward with the reduced precipitation bias. Regional cloud locking experiments confirm that the teleconnection efficiency depends on subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback. This subtropical cloud feedback is too weak in most climate models, suggesting that teleconnections from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific are stronger than widely thought.

Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast

The extension of seasonal to interannual prediction of the physical climate system to include the marine ecosystem has a great potential to inform marine resource management strategies. Along the east coast of Africa, recent findings suggest that skillful Earth system model (ESM)-based chlorophyll predictions may enable anticipation of fisheries fluctuations. The mechanisms underlying skillful chlorophyll predictions, however, were not identified, eroding confidence in potential adaptive management steps. This study demonstrates that skillful chlorophyll predictions up to two years in advance arise from the successful simulation of westward-propagating off-equatorial Rossby waves in the Indian ocean. Upwelling associated with these waves supplies nutrients to the surface layer for the large coastal areas by generating north- and southward propagating waves at the east African coast. Further analysis shows that the off-equatorial Rossby wave is initially excited by wind stress forcing caused by El Niño/Southern Oscillation-Indian Ocean teleconnections.

Propagation of barotropic Kelvin waves around Antarctica

Barotropic (i.e., depth-uniform) coastal oceanic Kelvin waves can provide rapid teleconnections from climate and weather events in one location to remote regions of the globe. Studies suggest that barotropic Kelvin waves observed around Antarctica may provide a mechanism for rapidly propagating circulation anomalies around the continent, with implications for continental shelf temperatures along the West Antarctic Peninsula and thus Antarctic ice mass loss rates. However, how the propagation of Kelvin waves around Antarctica is influenced by features such as coastal geometry and variations in bathymetry remains poorly understood. Here we study the propagation of barotropic Antarctic Kelvin waves using a range of idealized model simulations. Using a single-layer linear shallow water model with 1∘ horizontal resolution, we gradually add complexity of continental configuration, realistic bathymetry, variable planetary rotation, and forcing scenarios, to isolate sources and sinks of wave energy and the mechanisms responsible. We find that approximately 75% of sub-inertial barotropic Kelvin wave energy is scattered away from Antarctica as other waves in one circumnavigation of the continent, due mostly to interactions with bathymetry. Super-inertial barotropic Kelvin waves lose nearly 95% of their energy in one circumpolar loop, due to interactions with both coastal geometry and bathymetry. These results help to explain why only sustained signals of low-frequency resonant barotropic Kelvin waves have been observed around Antarctica, and contribute to our understanding of the role of rapid, oceanic teleconnections in climate.

Changes in compound monthly precipitation and temperature extremes and their relationship with teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean

Compound extremes have increasingly become the focus of research in recent years, due to the strong impact they have upon society and ecosystems. Few studies, however, address the role of teleconnection patterns in these compound extremes, and how the former can be used to predict the latter. The present study quantifies the changes observed in the monthly frequencies of Dry-Warm, Dry-Cold, Wet-Warm and Wet-Cold concurrent extremes in the Mediterranean basin during the 1951–2020 period, and assesses the effect of different regional, continental and oceanic teleconnections upon the frequency of such concurrent extremes. Results reveal a significant increase, especially, in dry-warm months in large areas of the Mediterranean basin, mainly in summer and spring, as well as a decrease in wet-cold extremes in these seasons. On the other hand, the positive phase of the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) has a strong capacity to drive dry-warm months in the western Mediterranean basin, as well as wet-cold extremes in the southern-east part of the Mediterranean basin. This role becomes inverted during the negative phase of this teleconnection. Furthermore, due to its subtropical linkage, the positive phase of the East Atlantic (EA) oscillation also plays an important role in accounting for the occurrence of dry-warm months in most of the Mediterranean basin, especially in the west and the north. During its negative mode, the configuration of the EA dipole favours the occurrence of wet-cold months, especially in the north and western part of the basin. The East Atlantic/Western Russia oscillation proved to be highly capable of inferring the ocurrence of dry-warm and wet-cold events in the eastern Mediterranean. The other teleconnections analysed (the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), and the Scandinavian (SCAND) an Polar-Eurasia (POLEUR) oscillations) played a minor role in driving these monthly concurrent extremes. The results provided by the present paper are intended to guide future research addressing the potential of teleconnection patterns to drive the temporal variability of compound extremes.

Teleconnections and edaphoclimatic effects on tree growth of Cedrela odorata L. in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Brazil

The Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF) present very high biodiversity and a number of tree species that are adapted to prolonged periods of water stress. Considering tree ring formation is mainly driven by seasonal variation in precipitation in tropical environments, tree-ring studies from STDF can provide important contributions to understanding how these forests are responding to climate variations. In the present study, we demonstrate the influence of edaphoclimatic variables (precipitation, air temperature and soil water deficit-SWD) and the ocean teleconnections (Tropical Southern Atlantic-TSA, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-AMO, Western Hemisphere Warm Pool-WHWP and El Niño 3.4) on Cedrela odorata L. growth from a SDTF of northeastern Brazil. We used standard dendrochronological methods to develop an 89-year-long ring-width index chronology. The climate sensitivity of C. odorata was assessed through Pearson's correlation tests and linear regressions, which allowed to identify the determinant months (cause-effect) of each variable on the chronology. Tree growth was positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature and SWD, particularly during the rainy season (March to August). In parallel, we identified that extremely dry years can contribute to missing rings, exposing the lack of growth in C. odorata caused by water stress. Among the oceanic variables, all of them showed a negative effect on radial growth of C. odorata, except for TSA, which had no significant effect. Tree growth is constrained in years with strong El Niño and high values of AMO index during the rainy months (May, June and October). However, the WHWP showed a more pronounced negative effect in the beginning of the dry season (September). Our findings add valuable information on C. odorata responses to hydrological seasonality from SDTF and the fluctuations in oceanic teleconnections, which in turn, influence the rainfall dynamics in northeastern Brazil.

Subtropical Clouds Key to the Southern Ocean Teleconnections to the Tropical Pacific

Subtropical Clouds Key to the Southern Ocean Teleconnections to the Tropical Pacific

Influence of Local Scale and Oceanic Teleconnections on Regional Fire Danger and Wildfire Trends

Influence of Local Scale and Oceanic Teleconnections on Regional Fire Danger and Wildfire Trends

Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Forecast Skill in the California Current System and Its Connection to Coastal Kelvin Waves

AbstractAccurate dynamical forecasts of ocean variables in the California Current System (CCS) are essential decision support tools for advancing ecosystem‐based marine resource management. However, model and dynamical uncertainties present a significant challenge when attempting to incorporate these forecasts into a formal decision‐making process. To provide guidance on the reliability of dynamical forecasts, previous studies have suggested that deterministic climate processes associated with atmospheric or oceanic teleconnections may provide opportunities for enhanced forecast skill. Recent computational advances have led to the availability of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) forecasts of key oceanic variables such as sea surface height (SSH), which may be leveraged to identify such “forecast opportunities.” In this study, we conduct a S2S forecast skill assessment of SSH anomalies in the CCS using an ensemble of 46‐day reforecasts made by the European Center for Medium‐range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for the period 2000–2018. We find that the ECMWF model consistently produces skillful dynamical forecasts of SSH, particularly in both the southern and northern CCS at leads of 4–7 weeks. Using a high‐resolution ocean reanalysis, we develop a new index designed to characterize the location and intensity of coastally trapped waves propagating through the CCS. We then show that the S2S dynamical forecasts have enhanced skill in forecasts of SSH in weeks 4–7 when initialized with strong or extreme coastally trapped wave conditions, explaining 30–40% more SSH variance than the corresponding persistence forecast.

Assessing Atmospheric and Oceanic Teleconnections between the Eastern and Western Mediterranean Over the Past 8,000 Years

Assessing Atmospheric and Oceanic Teleconnections between the Eastern and Western Mediterranean Over the Past 8,000 Years