Ocean State Estimate Research Articles

Comparing a Multivariate Global Ocean State Estimate With High-Resolution in Situ Data: An Anticyclonic Intrathermocline Eddy Near the Canary Islands

The provision of high-resolution \textit{in situ} oceanographic data is key for the ongoing verification, validation and assessment of operational products, such as those provided by the Copernicus Marine Core Service (CMEMS). Here we analyze the ability of ARMOR3D - a multivariate global ocean state estimate that is available from CMEMS - to reconstruct a mesoscale anticyclonic intrathermocline eddy that was previously sampled with high-resolution independent \textit{in situ} observations. ARMOR3D is constructed by merging remote sensing observations with \textit{in situ} vertical profiles of temperature and salinity obtained primarily from the Argo network. \textit{In situ} data from CTDs and an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler were obtained during an oceanographic cruise near the Canary Islands (Atlantic ocean). The analysis of the ARMOR3D product using the \textit{in situ} data is done over (i) a high-resolution meridional transect crossing the eddy center and (ii) a three-dimensional grid centered on the eddy center. An evaluation of the hydrographic eddy signature and derived dynamical variables, namely geostrophic velocity, vertical vorticity and quasi-geostrophic (QG) vertical velocity, demonstrates that the ARMOR3D product is able to reproduce the vertical hydrographic structure of the independently sampled eddy below the seasonal pycnocline, with the caveat that the flow is surface intensified and the seasonal pycnocline remains flat. Maps of ARMOR3D density show the signature of the eddy, and agreement with the elliptical eddy shape seen in the \textit{in situ} data. The major eddy axes are oriented NW-SE in both data sets. The estimated radius for the \textit{in situ} eddy is $\sim$ 46 km; the ARMOR3D radius is significantly larger at $\sim$ 92 km and is considered an overestimation that is inherited from an across-track altimetry sampling issue. The ARMOR3D geostrophic flow is underestimated by a factor of 2, with maxima of 0.11 (-0.19) m s$^{-1}$ at the surface, which implies an underestimation of the local Rossby number by a factor of 3. Both the \textit{in situ} and ARMOR3D eddies have decelerating flows at their northern edges. The ARMOR3D QG vertical velocity distribution has upwelling/downwelling cells located along the eddy periphery and similar magnitudes to the \textit{in situ}-derived QG vertical velocity.

Transformation of Deep Water Masses Along Lagrangian Upwelling Pathways in the Southern Ocean

AbstractUpwelling of northern deep waters in the Southern Ocean is fundamentally important for the closure of the global meridional overturning circulation and delivers carbon and nutrient‐rich deep waters to the sea surface. We quantify water mass transformation along upwelling pathways originating in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific and ending at the surface of the Southern Ocean using Lagrangian trajectories in an eddy‐permitting ocean state estimate. Recent related work shows that upwelling in the interior below about 400 m depth is localized at hot spots associated with major topographic features in the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, while upwelling through the surface layer is more broadly distributed. In the ocean interior upwelling is largely isopycnal; Atlantic and to a lesser extent Indian Deep Waters cool and freshen while Pacific deep waters are more stable, leading to a homogenization of water mass properties. As upwelling water approaches the mixed layer, there is net strong transformation toward lighter densities due to mixing of freshwater, but there is a divergence in the density distribution as Upper Circumpolar Deep Water tends become lighter and dense Lower Circumpolar Deep Water tends to become denser. The spatial distribution of transformation shows more rapid transformation at eddy hot spots associated with major topography where density gradients are enhanced; however, the majority of cumulative density change along trajectories is achieved by background mixing. We compare the Lagrangian analysis to diagnosed Eulerian water mass transformation to attribute the mechanisms leading to the observed transformation.

Modeling Global Ocean Biogeochemistry With Physical Data Assimilation: A Pragmatic Solution to the Equatorial Instability

AbstractReliable estimates of historical and current biogeochemistry are essential for understanding past ecosystem variability and predicting future changes. Efforts to translate improved physical ocean state estimates into improved biogeochemical estimates, however, are hindered by high biogeochemical sensitivity to transient momentum imbalances that arise during physical data assimilation. Most notably, the breakdown of geostrophic constraints on data assimilation in equatorial regions can lead to spurious upwelling, resulting in excessive equatorial productivity and biogeochemical fluxes. This hampers efforts to understand and predict the biogeochemical consequences of El Niño and La Niña. We develop a strategy to robustly integrate an ocean biogeochemical model with an ensemble coupled‐climate data assimilation system used for seasonal to decadal global climate prediction. Addressing spurious vertical velocities requires two steps. First, we find that tightening constraints on atmospheric data assimilation maintains a better equatorial wind stress and pressure gradient balance. This reduces spurious vertical velocities, but those remaining still produce substantial biogeochemical biases. The remainder is addressed by imposing stricter fidelity to model dynamics over data constraints near the equator. We determine an optimal choice of model‐data weights that removed spurious biogeochemical signals while benefitting from off‐equatorial constraints that still substantially improve equatorial physical ocean simulations. Compared to the unconstrained control run, the optimally constrained model reduces equatorial biogeochemical biases and markedly improves the equatorial subsurface nitrate concentrations and hypoxic area. The pragmatic approach described herein offers a means of advancing earth system prediction in parallel with continued data assimilation advances aimed at fully considering equatorial data constraints.

Resolving high-frequency internal waves generated at an isolated coral atoll using an unstructured grid ocean model

We apply the unstructured grid hydrodynamic model SUNTANS to investigate the internal wave dynamics around Scott Reef, Western Australia, an isolated coral reef atoll located on the edge of the continental shelf in water depths of 500,m and more. The atoll is subject to strong semi-diurnal tidal forcing and consists of two relatively shallow lagoons separated by a 500 m deep, 2 km wide and 15 km long channel. We focus on the dynamics in this channel as the internal tide-driven flow and resulting mixing is thought to be a key mechanism controlling heat and nutrient fluxes into the reef lagoons. We use an unstructured grid to discretise the domain and capture both the complex topography and the range of internal wave length scales in the channel flow. The model internal wave field shows super-tidal frequency lee waves generated by the combination of the steep channel topography and strong tidal flow. We evaluate the model performance using observations of velocity and temperature from two through water-column moorings in the channel separating the two reefs. Three different global ocean state estimate datasets (global HYCOM, CSIRO Bluelink, CSIRO climatology atlas) were used to provide the model initial and boundary conditions, and the model outputs from each were evaluated against the field observations. The scenario incorporating the CSIRO Bluelink data performed best in terms of through-water column Murphy skill scores of water temperature and eastward velocity variability in the channel. The model captures the observed vertical structure of the tidal (M2) and super-tidal (M4) frequency temperature and velocity oscillations. The model also predicts the direction and magnitude of the M2 internal tide energy flux. An energy analysis reveals a net convergence of the M2 energy flux and a divergence of the M4 energy flux in the channel, indicating the channel is a region of either energy transfer to higher frequencies or energy loss to dissipation. This conclusion is supported by the mooring observations that reveal high frequency lee waves breaking on the turning phase of the tide.

The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Mean Temperature (NAMT) have been computed via an optimization procedure using a linear adjoint to a realistic ocean general circulation model. The spatial pattern of the identified perturbations, localized in the North Atlantic, has the largest magnitude between 1000 and 4000 m depth. In the present study, the impacts of these perturbations on NAMT, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and on climate in general are investigated in a global coupled model that uses the same ocean model as was used to compute the three-dimensional optimal perturbations. In the coupled model, these perturbations induce AMOC and NAMT anomalies peaking after 5 and 10 years, respectively, generally consistent with the ocean-only linear predictions. To further understand their impact, their magnitude was varied in a broad range. For initial perturbations with a magnitude comparable to the internal variability of the coupled model, the model response exhibits a strong signature in sea surface temperature and precipitation over North America and the Sahel region. The existence and impacts of these ocean perturbations have important implications for decadal prediction: they can be seen either as a source of predictability or uncertainty, depending on whether the current observing system can detect them or not. In fact, comparing the magnitude of the imposed perturbations with the uncertainty of available ocean observations such as Argo data or ocean state estimates suggests that only the largest perturbations used in this study could be detectable. This highlights the importance for decadal climate prediction of accurate ocean density initialisation in the North Atlantic at intermediate and greater depths.

Upper Ocean Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

ABSTRACTA regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important.

Global Ocean Vertical Velocity From a Dynamically Consistent Ocean State Estimate

AbstractEstimates of the global ocean vertical velocities (Eulerian, eddy‐induced, and residual) from a dynamically consistent and data‐constrained ocean state estimate are presented and analyzed. Conventional patterns of vertical velocity, Ekman pumping, appear in the upper ocean, with topographic dominance at depth. Intense and vertically coherent upwelling and downwelling occur in the Southern Ocean, which are likely due to the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and large‐scale topographic features and are generally canceled out in the conventional zonally averaged results. These “elevators” at high latitudes connect the upper to the deep and abyssal oceans and working together with isopycnal mixing are likely a mechanism, in addition to the formation of deep and abyssal waters, for fast responses of the deep and abyssal oceans to the changing climate. Also, Eulerian and parameterized eddy‐induced components are of opposite signs in numerous regions around the global ocean, particularly in the ocean interior away from surface and bottom. Nevertheless, residual vertical velocity is primarily determined by the Eulerian component, and related to winds and large‐scale topographic features. The current estimates of vertical velocities can serve as a useful reference for investigating the vertical exchange of ocean properties and tracers, and its complex spatial structure ultimately permits regional tests of basic oceanographic concepts such as Sverdrup balance and coastal upwelling/downwelling.

Improved ocean state estimation by controlling ocean-mixing: toward synthesis of ocean-mixing observations

Improved ocean state estimation by controlling ocean-mixing: toward synthesis of ocean-mixing observations

A data assimilating model for estimating Southern Ocean biogeochemistry

AbstractA Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate (B‐SOSE) is introduced that includes carbon and oxygen fields as well as nutrient cycles. The state estimate is constrained with observations while maintaining closed budgets and obeying dynamical and thermodynamic balances. Observations from profiling floats, shipboard data, underway measurements, and satellites are used for assimilation. The years 2008–2012 are chosen due to the relative abundance of oxygen observations from Argo floats during this time. The skill of the state estimate at fitting the data is assessed. The agreement is best for fields that are constrained with the most observations, such as surface pCO2 in Drake Passage (44% of the variance captured) and oxygen profiles (over 60% of the variance captured at 200 and 1000 m). The validity of adjoint method optimization for coupled physical‐biogeochemical state estimation is demonstrated with a series of gradient check experiments. The method is shown to be mature and ready to synthesize in situ biogeochemical observations as they become more available. Documenting the B‐SOSE configuration and diagnosing the strengths and weaknesses of the solution informs usage of this product as both a climate baseline and as a way to test hypotheses. Transport of Intermediate Waters across 32°S supplies significant amounts of nitrate to the Atlantic Ocean (5.57 ± 2.94 Tmol yr−1) and Indian Ocean (5.09 ± 3.06 Tmol yr−1), but much less nitrate reaches the Pacific Ocean (1.78 ± 1.91 Tmol yr−1). Estimates of air‐sea carbon dioxide fluxes south of 50°S suggest a mean uptake of 0.18 Pg C/yr for the time period analyzed.

Mechanisms underlying recent decadal changes in subpolar North Atlantic Ocean heat content

AbstractThe subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea‐surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. This recent decadal trend reversal in SPNA ocean heat content (OHC) is studied using a physically consistent, observationally constrained global ocean state estimate covering 1992–2015. The estimate's physical consistency facilitates quantitative causal attribution of ocean variations. Closed heat budget diagnostics reveal that the SPNA OHC trend reversal is the result of heat advection by midlatitude ocean circulation. Kinematic decompositions reveal that changes in the deep and intermediate vertical overturning circulation cannot account for the trend reversal, but rather ocean heat transports by horizontal gyre circulations render the primary contributions. The shift in horizontal gyre advection reflects anomalous circulation acting on the mean temperature gradients. Maximum covariance analysis (MCA) reveals strong covariation between the anomalous horizontal gyre circulation and variations in the local wind stress curl, suggestive of a Sverdrup response. Results have implications for decadal predictability.

On the vertical structure and stability of the Lofoten vortex in the Norwegian Sea

The Lofoten Vortex (LV), a quasi-permanent anticyclonic eddy in the Lofoten Basin of the Norwegian Sea, is investigated with an eddy-permitting primitive equation model nested into the ECCO2 ocean state estimate. The LV, as simulated by the model, extends from the sea surface to the ocean bottom at about 3000m and has the subsurface core between 50m and 1100m depths. Above and below the vortex core the relative vorticity signal decreases in amplitude while the radius increases by as much as 25–30% relative to the values in the core. Analyzing the model run, we show that the vertical structure of the LV can be casted into four standard configurations, each of which forms a distinct cluster in the parameter space of potential vorticity anomalies in and above the LV core. The stability of the LV for each of the configurations is then studied with three-layer and a two-layer (in winter) quasi-geostrophic (QG) models over a flat bottom as well as over a realistic topography. The QG results show a number of common features with those of the primitive equation model. Thus, among the azimuthal modes dominating the LV instability, both the QG model and the primitive equation model show a major role the 2nd and 3rd modes. In the QG model simulations the LV is the subject of a rather strong dynamic instability, penetrating deep into the core. The results predict 50–95% volume loss from the vortex within 4–5 months. Such a drastic effect is not observed in the primitive equation model, where, for the same intensity of perturbations, only 10–30% volume loss during the same period is detected. Taking into account the gently sloping topography of the central part of the Lofoten basin and the mean flow in the QG model, brings the rate of development of instability close to that in the primitive equation model. Some remaining differences in the two models are discussed. Overall, the LV decay rate obtained in the models is slow enough for eddy mergers and convection to restore the thermodynamic properties of the LV, primarily re-building its potential energy anomaly. This justifies the quasi-permanent presence of the LV in the Lofoten Basin.

Eddy heat flux across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current estimated from sea surface height standard deviation

AbstractEddy heat flux (EHF) is a predominant mechanism for heat transport across the zonally unbounded mean flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Observations of dynamically relevant, divergent, 4 year mean EHF in Drake Passage from the cDrake project, as well as previous studies of atmospheric and oceanic storm tracks, motivates the use of sea surface height (SSH) standard deviation, H*, as a proxy for depth‐integrated, downgradient, time‐mean EHF ( ) in the ACC. Statistics from the Southern Ocean State Estimate corroborate this choice and validate throughout the ACC the spatial agreement between H* and seen locally in Drake Passage. Eight regions of elevated are identified from nearly 23.5 years of satellite altimetry data. Elevated cross‐front exchange usually does not span the full latitudinal width of the ACC in each region, implying a hand‐off of heat between ACC fronts and frontal zones as they encounter the different hot spots along their circumpolar path. Integrated along circumpolar streamlines, defined by mean SSH contours, there is a convergence of in the ACC: 1.06 PW enters from the north and 0.02 PW exits to the south. Temporal trends in low‐frequency [EHF] are calculated in a running‐mean sense using H* from overlapping 4 year subsets of SSH. Significant increases in downgradient [EHF] magnitude have occurred since 1993 at Kerguelen Plateau, Southeast Indian Ridge, and the Brazil‐Malvinas Confluence, whereas the other five hot spots have insignificant trends of varying sign.

Controllability, not chaos, key criterion for ocean state estimation

Abstract. The Lagrange multiplier method for combining observations and models (i.e., the adjoint method or 4D-VAR) has been avoided or approximated when the numerical model is highly nonlinear or chaotic. This approach has been adopted primarily due to difficulties in the initialization of low-dimensional chaotic models, where the search for optimal initial conditions by gradient-descent algorithms is hampered by multiple local minima. Although initialization is an important task for numerical weather prediction, ocean state estimation usually demands an additional task – a solution of the time-dependent surface boundary conditions that result from atmosphere–ocean interaction. Here, we apply the Lagrange multiplier method to an analogous boundary control problem, tracking the trajectory of the forced chaotic pendulum. Contrary to previous assertions, it is demonstrated that the Lagrange multiplier method can track multiple chaotic transitions through time, so long as the boundary conditions render the system controllable. Thus, the nonlinear timescale poses no limit to the time interval for successful Lagrange multiplier-based estimation. That the key criterion is controllability, not a pure measure of dynamical stability or chaos, illustrates the similarities between the Lagrange multiplier method and other state estimation methods. The results with the chaotic pendulum suggest that nonlinearity should not be a fundamental obstacle to ocean state estimation with eddy-resolving models, especially when using an improved first-guess trajectory.

Mesoscale and Submesoscale Effects on Mixed Layer Depth in the Southern Ocean

AbstractSubmesoscale dynamics play a key role in setting the stratification of the ocean surface mixed layer and mediating air–sea exchange, making them especially relevant to anthropogenic carbon uptake and primary productivity in the Southern Ocean. In this paper, a series of offline-nested numerical simulations is used to study submesoscale flow in the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea regions of the Southern Ocean. These simulations are initialized from an ocean state estimate for late April 2015, with the intent to simulate features observed during the Surface Mixed Layer at Submesoscales (SMILES) research cruise, which occurred at that time and location. The nested models are downscaled from the original state estimate resolution of 1/12° and grid spacing of about 8 km, culminating in a submesoscale-resolving model with a resolution of 1/192° and grid spacing of about 500 m. The submesoscale eddy field is found to be highly spatially variable, with pronounced hot spots of submesoscale activity. These areas of high submesoscale activity correspond to a significant difference in the 30-day average mixed layer depth between the 1/12° and 1/192° simulations. Regions of large vertical velocities in the mixed layer correspond with high mesoscale strain rather than large . It is found that is well correlated with the mesoscale density gradient but weakly correlated with both the mesoscale kinetic energy and strain. This has implications for the development of submesoscale eddy parameterizations that are sensitive to the character of the large-scale flow.

Change of the Global Ocean Vertical Heat Transport over 1993–2010

A dynamically and data-consistent ocean state estimate during 1993–2010 is analyzed for bidecadal changes in the mechanisms of heat exchange between the upper and lower oceans. Many patterns of change are consistent with prior studies. However, at various levels above 1800 m the global integral of the change in ocean vertical heat flux involves the summation of positive and negative regional contributions and is not statistically significant. The nonsignificance of change in the global ocean vertical heat transport from an ocean state estimate that provides global coverage and regular sampling, spatially and temporally, raises the question of whether an adequate observational database exists to assess changes in the upper ocean heat content over the past few decades. Also, whereas the advective term largely determines the spatial pattern of the change in ocean vertical heat flux, its global integral is not significantly different from zero. In contrast, the diffusive term, although regionally weak except in high-latitude oceans, produces a statistically significant extra downward heat flux during the 2000s. This result suggests that besides ocean advection, ocean mixing processes, including isopycnal and diapycnal as well as convective mixing, are important for the decadal variation of the heat exchange between upper and deep oceans as well. Furthermore, the analyses herein indicate that focusing on any particular region in explaining changes of the global ocean heat content is misleading.

Estimation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean State 2010–13

AbstractA data-assimilating ⅓° regional dynamical ocean model is evaluated on its ability to synthesize components of the Tropical Pacific Ocean Observing System. The four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) method adjusts initial conditions and atmospheric forcing for overlapping 4-month model runs, or hindcasts, that are then combined to give an ocean state estimate for the period 2010–13. Consistency within uncertainty with satellite SSH and Argo profiles is achieved. Comparison to independent observations from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) moorings shows that for time scales shorter than 100 days, the state estimate improves estimates of TAO temperature relative to an optimally interpolated Argo product. The improvement is greater at time scales shorter than 20 days, although unpredicted variability in the TAO temperatures implies that TAO observations provide significant information in that band. Larger discrepancies between the state estimate and independent observations from Spray gliders deployed near the Galápagos, Palau, and Solomon Islands are attributed to insufficient model resolution to capture the dynamics in strong current regions and near coasts. The sea surface height forecast skill of the model is assessed. Model forecasts using climatological forcing and boundary conditions are more skillful than climatology out to 50 days compared to persistence, which is a more skillful forecast than climatology out to approximately 20 days. Hindcasts using reanalysis products for atmospheric forcing and open boundary conditions are more skillful than climatology for approximately 120 days or longer, with the exact time scale depending on the accuracy of the state estimate used for initializing and on the reanalysis forcing. Estimating the model representational error is a goal of these experiments.

Preconditioning of Antarctic maximum sea ice extent by upper ocean stratification on a seasonal timescale

AbstractThis study uses an observationally constrained and dynamically consistent ocean and sea ice state estimate. The author presents a remarkable agreement between the location of the edge of Antarctic maximum sea ice extent, reached in September, and the narrow transition band for the upper ocean (0–100 m depths) stratification, as early as April to June. To the south of this edge, the upper ocean has high stratification, which forbids convective fluxes to cross through; consequently, the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is an efficient way to cool the surface ocean to the freezing point during April to September. To the north, the upper ocean has low stratification such that the ocean heat loss to the atmosphere is not efficient to cool the upper ocean. The upper ocean is instead cooled mainly through mixing with the colder inflow carried by northward Ekman transport but cannot reach the freezing point due to the nature of mixing. Therefore, upper ocean stratification, dominated by salinity here, provides an important constraint on the northward expansion of Antarctic sea ice to its maximum.

Air‐sea heat flux climatologies in the Mediterranean Sea: Surface energy balance and its consistency with ocean heat storage

AbstractThis study provides an analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface energy budget using nine surface heat flux climatologies. The ensemble mean estimation shows that the net downward shortwave radiation (192 ± 19 W m−2) is balanced by latent heat flux (−98 ± 10 W m−2), followed by net longwave radiation (−78 ± 13 W m−2) and sensible heat flux (−13 ± 4 W m−2). The resulting net heat budget (Qnet) is 2 ± 12 W m−2 into the ocean, which appears to be warm biased. The annual‐mean Qnet should be −5.6 ± 1.6 W m−2 when estimated from the observed net transport through the Strait of Gibraltar. To diagnose the uncertainty in nine Qnet climatologies, we constructed Qnet from the heat budget equation by using historic hydrological observations to determine the heat content changes and advective heat flux. We also used the Qnet from a data‐assimilated global ocean state estimation as an additional reference. By comparing with the two reference Qnet estimates, we found that seven products (NCEP 1, NCEP 2, CFSR, ERA‐Interim, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP) overestimate Qnet, with magnitude ranging from 6 to 27 W m−2, while two products underestimate Qnet by −6 W m−2 (JRA55) and −14 W m−2 (CORE.2). Together with the previous warm pool work of Song and Yu (2013), we show that CFSR, MERRA, NOCSv2.0, and OAFlux+ISCCP are warm‐biased not only in the western Pacific warm pool but also in the Mediterranean Sea, while CORE.2 is cold‐biased in both regions. The NCEP 1, 2, and ERA‐Interim are cold‐biased over the warm pool but warm‐biased in the Mediterranean Sea.

On the mesoscale monitoring capability of Argo floats in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. In this work a simplified observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) approach is used to investigate which Argo design sampling in the Mediterranean Sea would be necessary to properly capture the mesoscale dynamics in this basin. The monitoring of the mesoscale features is not an initial objective of the Argo network. However, it is an interesting question from the perspective of future network extensions in order to improve the ocean state estimates. The true field used to conduct the OSSEs is provided by a specific altimetry-gridded merged product for the Mediterranean Sea. Synthetic observations were obtained by sub-sampling this Nature Run according to different configurations of the ARGO network. The observation errors required to perform the OSSEs were obtained through the comparison of sea level anomalies (SLAs) from altimetry and dynamic height anomalies (DHAs) computed from the real in situ Argo network. This analysis also contributes to validate satellite SLAs with an increased confidence. The simulation experiments show that a configuration similar to the current Argo array in the Mediterranean (with a spatial resolution of 2° × 2°) is only able to recover the large-scale signals of the basin. Increasing the spatial resolution to nearly 75 km × 75 km, allows the capture of most of the mesoscale signal in the basin and to retrieve the SLA field with a RMSE of 3 cm for spatial scales larger than 150 km, similar to those presently captured by the altimetry. This would represent a theoretical reduction of 40 % of the actual RMSE. Such a high-resolution Argo array composed of around 450 floats, cycling every 10 days, is expected to increase the actual network cost by approximately a factor of 6.

A reanalysis of the Chilean ocean circulation: preliminary results for the region between 20 S to 40 S

The development and initial results from a reanalysis, or best estimate, of the historical state of central Chile's coastal ocean are presented. The Chilean Ocean State Estimate (COSE) covers the western coast of South America southwards of 20oS and for the period 1993 to 2012. The reanalysis is being performed using the 4DVAR driver of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The ROMS solution is constrained to reconcile satellite sea surface temperature and altimetry data with prior estimates of the initial state and boundary conditions derived from the HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) global reanalysis. Here we present preliminary results from COSE for central Chile and the year 2008. The regional reanalysis reduces the modelobservations mismatch of the global HYCOM solution by 38 and 27%, for sea surface temperature and height respectively, and corrects a spurious on-shore surface current present in the HYCOM reanalysis. Inspection of the assimilation increments suggests that ROMS simulations forced by satellite winds overestimate coastal upwelling.