Oceanic Kelvin Research Articles

Interannual Variability of the Sulawesi Sea Circulation Forced by Indo‐Pacific Planetary Waves

AbstractThe regional INDESO model configured in the Indonesian seas from 2008 to 2016 is used to study the mechanisms responsible for the variability of the currents in the Sulawesi Sea of the Indonesian seas. The model simulation compares reasonably with the seasonal to interannual variability of the moored current meter observations in the upper 350 m or so of the Maluku Channel during 2015 and 2016. The interannual variability of the currents in the eastern Sulawesi Sea in the model is found to be associated with both the Pacific and Indian Ocean remote forcing. Lag correlation analysis and a theoretical linear wave model simulation suggest that both the equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean and the coastally trapped Kelvin waves from the western Pacific along the Philippine coast can propagate through the Indonesian seas and arrive at the Maluku Channel. In particular, from mid‐2015 to 2016 the Indian Ocean Kelvin waves are found to significantly impact the sea level anomaly variability in the Maluku Channel. The results indicate the importance of Indo‐Pacific planetary waves to the interannual variability of the currents in the Sulawesi Sea at the entrance of the Indonesian seas.

On the westward shift of tropical Pacific climate variability since 2000

A profound westward shift in atmosphere–ocean variability in the tropical Pacific is observed when 2000–2017 is compared to 1979–1999. This westward displacement is associated with changes in oceanic Kelvin wave activity along the equator, especially a remarkable reduction in the eastern Pacific (175°–145°W). This coincides with a weakening of low-level westerly winds in this region, and a westward shift of low-level easterly winds in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, as well as decreased variability of vertical entrainment, vertical diffusion in the ocean mixed-layer in the eastern Pacific. The observed enhancement of the zonal contrast of the mean state across the tropical Pacific seems to be associated with the westward shift of climate variability along the equator. This systematically westward shift of the atmosphere–ocean variability in the tropical Pacific alters the impact of the tropical Pacific on extra-tropical climate.

The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is commonly viewed as a low-frequency tropical mode of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability energized by stochastic wind forcing. Despite many studies, however, the nature of this broadband stochastic forcing and the relative roles of its high- and low-frequency components in ENSO development remain unclear. In one view, the high-frequency forcing associated with the subseasonal Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and westerly wind events (WWEs) excites oceanic Kelvin waves leading to ENSO. An alternative view emphasizes the role of the low-frequency stochastic wind components in directly forcing the low-frequency ENSO modes. These apparently distinct roles of the wind forcing are clarified here using a recently released high-resolution wind dataset for 1990–2015. A spectral analysis shows that although the high-frequency winds do excite high-frequency Kelvin waves, they are much weaker than their interannual counterparts and are a minor contributor to ENSO development. The analysis also suggests that WWEs should be viewed more as short-correlation events with a flat spectrum at low frequencies that can efficiently excite ENSO modes than as strictly high-frequency events that would be highly inefficient in this regard. Interestingly, the low-frequency power of the rapid wind forcing is found to be higher during El Niño than La Niña events, suggesting a role also for state-dependent (i.e., multiplicative) noise forcing in ENSO dynamics.

Drastic thickening of the barrier layer off the western coast of Sumatra due to the Madden-Julian oscillation passage during the Pre-Years of the Maritime Continent campaign

The drastic thickening of the barrier layer in the marginal sea off the western coast of Sumatra during the passage of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) observed during December 2015 is investigated. Before the MJO arrival, the halocline above a depth of 20 m was very strong, and the barrier layer thickness was 5–10 m based on R/V Mirai observations. During the MJO forcing of 13–16 December, the isothermal layer drastically deepened from 20 to 100 m. Meanwhile, the mixed layer deepening lagged behind the isothermal layer deepening by 1 day, and the barrier layer underwent dramatic thickening to 60 m within 24 h. An evaluation of the vertical salinity gradient tendency showed that the dramatic thickening of the barrier layer was due to the vertical oceanic mixing by the atmospheric MJO forcing and the vertical stretching by the oceanic downwelling coastal Kelvin wave intruding from the open ocean. In addition, an evaluation of the vertical temperature gradient tendency showed that the temperature inversion in the barrier layer formed by losing heat to the atmosphere due to the MJO forcing and downward advection of the temperature gradient due to the downwelling Kelvin wave resulting in the dramatic isothermal layer deepening. One of the important factors in the drastic barrier layer thickening was the atmospheric external forcing and the oceanic internal wave being in phase. The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave continuously lowered the thermocline from the middle of November to the end of December, and the salinity stratification in the vicinity of the thermocline was continuously mitigated by the vertical stretching. Under such conditions, the MJO forcing caused vertical mixing of the freshwater with strong salinity stratification and temperature stratification near the surface. The combination of the two distinct processes caused the drastic thickening of the barrier layer, and the barrier layer thickness reached a maximum of 85 m 5 days after the MJO arrival.ᅟ

Observations and Mechanisms of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and relevance for seasonal forecasts. Recently, a simple modeling framework was developed that captures the ENSO diversity, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature are coupled to a simple ocean–atmosphere model that is otherwise deterministic, linear, and stable. In this article, the coupled model is compared with observations using reanalysis data over the last 34 yr, where the observed non-Gaussian statistics and the overall mechanisms of ENSO are both captured by the model. Then the formation mechanisms of both the central Pacific (CP) and the traditional El Niño in the model are systematically studied. First, ocean Rossby waves induced by easterly trade wind anomalies facilitate the heat content buildup. Then the reflected ocean Kelvin waves and the nonlinear advection lead to positive SST anomalies in the CP region and create a CP El Niño. Second, two formation mechanisms are revealed for the traditional El Niño, including the super (extreme) El Niño. The first mechanism indicates a preferred wind structure with easterly wind bursts (EWBs) leading westerly wind bursts (WWBs), where the EWBs build up heat content and then the WWBs trigger the El Niño. The second mechanism links the two types of El Niño, where a CP El Niño favors a heat content buildup and the advent of a traditional El Niño. This article also highlights the mechanisms of La Niña formation and El Niño termination.

The effect of the MJO on the energetics of El Niño

The energy budget of the Pacific Ocean is evaluated in the Super-Parameterized Community Climate Model version 4 (SP-CCSM4) on intraseasonal time scales. The budget terms are decomposed to isolate the MJO influence and the ocean current associated with Kelvin waves. Using this decomposition, one can distinguish between El Nino events with strong and weak MJO influence. Composites of El Nino events based on the wind power component associated with the MJO induced wind stress and oceanic Kelvin waves ( $${{\text{W}}_{{\text{MJO}},{\text{K}}}}$$ ) are compared with composites based only on the atmospheric variability and based only on the oceanic variability. It was found that the composite of events when $${{\text{W}}_{{\text{MJO}},{\text{K}}}}$$ is near maximum (+ NMJO,K) shows a greater magnitude of mean perturbation wind power, buoyancy power, and available potential energy than any other case, which is consistent with the greater amplitude Kelvin wave perturbations on the thermocline, as well as the greater amplitude of SST anomalies at the peak of the event. For + NMJO,K, latent heat flux anomalies out of the ocean along the coast of New Guinea are seen coincident with deepening of the mixed layer depth there, suggesting that this is an important region for the thermodynamic influence of the MJO on the ocean. Latent heat flux anomalies into the ocean are seen across the ITCZ in the spring, suggesting a basin wide influence by the MJO on the ocean surface radiation budget in + NMJO,K.

Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: A comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98

The 2015/16 super El Nino event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino events. This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event, contrasts them to those in the two historical super events, and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific. During the early stage, this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Nino; whereas during its mature phase, it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center, mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature. The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events, and particularly for this new event, the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies. During this event, several westerly wind burst events occur, and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage. Meanwhile, there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharg-ing process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages. The second generation El Nino prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16, wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.

Importance of background seasonality over the eastern equatorial Pacific in a coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events

Coupled atmosphere-ocean response to westerly wind events (WWEs), which sometimes trigger El Niños, was investigated using a coupled general circulation model to clarify its dependence on the timing and location of WWEs. Twelve sets of 20-member ensembles were made with an idealized single WWE imposed in different months from January to July and at different longitudes from 160^circE to 160^circW. The initial ocean states are set to be near neutral to El Niño/La Niña so that the lagged response to WWEs can be isolated. The results show that sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño3.4 region increases largely and persistently favorable for El Niño growth when a WWE is imposed in May, whereas a WWE in March increases SST only in the easternmost Pacific. In both cases, an oceanic Kelvin wave propagates eastward to warm the eastern Pacific. When forced by the WWE in May, a positive Niño3.4 SST anomaly appears in boreal summer according to the seasonal outcrop of the equatorial thermocline, and it can strongly interact with seasonally active tropical rain belt to amplify the SST response further. A favorable combination of timing and location that maximize the impact of WWEs on El Niños in the subsequent winter is suggested albeit its relevance to nature should severely be tested. Another experiment with initial ocean states in El Niño/La Niña years showed that the WWEs in May are efficient to amplify El Niño similar to the neutral case, but are not efficient to suppress La Niña.

Evolution of the 2015/16 El Ni\xf1o and historical perspective since 1979

The 2015/16 El Niño developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3oC in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño using various data sets including SST, surface winds, outgoing longwave radiation and subsurface temperature from an ensemble operational ocean reanalyses, and place this event in the context of historical ENSO events since 1979. One salient feature about the 2015/16 El Niño was a large number of westerly wind bursts and downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves (DWKVs). Four DWKVs were observed in April-November 2015 that initiated and enhanced the eastern-central Pacific warming. Eastward zonal current anomalies associated with DWKVs advected the warm pool water eastward in spring/summer. An upwelling Kelvin wave (UWKV) emerged in early November 2015 leading to a rapid decline of the event. Another outstanding feature was that NINO4 reached a historical high (1.7oC), which was 1oC (0.8oC) higher than that of the 1982/83 (1997/98) El Niño. Although NINO3 was comparable to that of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, NINO1+2 was much weaker. Consistently, enhanced convection was displaced 20 degree westward, and the maximum D20 anomaly was about 1/3−1/2 of that in 1997 and 1982 near the west coast of South America.

Asymmetry in summertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the northwest Pacific during decaying phase of El Niño and La Niña

The present study has revealed the asymmetric characteristics of summertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Indo-Pacific for El Nino and La Nina, as well as the possible mechanism. During the summer when El Nino has dissipated, there are basin-wide warming over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and cooling over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (CEP). The northwest Pacific (NWP) anticyclone is maintained by a combined effect of the TIO warming and equatorial CEP cooling. The impact of TIO warming is via the Kelvin wave-induced divergence mechanism, and the effect of CEP cooling is by stimulating a Rossby wave response to its northwest. Correspondingly, there are lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) over the TIO and divergence (convergence) over the NWP. The tropical atmospheric waves and large-scale circulation anomalies could couple together and maintain the anticyclone. However, for La Nina, there are easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, and the anomalous NWP cyclone (NWPC) is weak and shifts northwestward, which are largely different from El Nino. The equatorial CEP cooling plays a dominant role in the maintenance of NWPC. The negative rainfall anomalies induced by CEP cooling force the anticyclonic wind anomalies over the WP as a Rossby wave response, which further cause the lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) over the MC and NWP. The resultant convergence leads to the enhanced convection there, inducing the NWPC as a Rossby wave response. Besides, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies trigger the upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave and maintain the CEP cooling as the Bjerknes feedback.

An ENSO prediction approach based on ocean conditions and ocean–atmosphere coupling

A simple statistical model for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is derived based on the evolution of the ocean heat condition and the oceanic Kelvin wave propagation associated with westerly wind events (WWEs) and easterly wind surges (EWSs) in the tropical Pacific. The multivariate linear regression model solely relies on the pentad thermocline depth anomaly evolution in 25 days along with the zonal surface wind modulation. It successfully hindcasts all ENSOs except for the 2000/01 La Nina, using the pentad (or monthly) mean tropical atmosphere ocean array data since 1994 with an averaged skill (measured by anomaly correlation) of 0.62 (or 0.67) with a 6-month lead. The exception is mainly due to the long-lasting cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropics resulting from the strong 1998/99 La Nina, even though the tropical warm water volume (WWV) had rebounded and turned phases after 2000. We also note that the hindcast skill is comparable using pentad or monthly mean NCEP global ocean data assimilation system data for the same time period. The hindcast skill of the proposed statistical model is better than that based on the WWV index in terms of the monthly correlation, normalized RMSEs and ENSO occurrences, which suggest that including the evolution of the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly and the WWEs/EWSs in the central tropical Pacific can enhance the ability to predict ENSO. The hindcast skill is also comparable to the predictions using other dynamical and statistical models, indicating that these processes are the keys to ENSO development. The dynamics behind the statistical model are consistent with the physical processes of ENSO development as follows: the tropical WWV resulting from the interannually-varying meridional subtropical cell transport provides a sufficient heat source. When the seasonal phase lock of ocean–atmosphere coupling triggers the positive (negative) zonal wind anomaly in boreal summer and fall, an El Nino (a La Nina) will develop as evidenced by the Kelvin wave propagation. The triggering dynamic may be suppressed or enhanced by the influence of extratropical Pacific sea surface temperature.

Sea surface height anomaly and upper ocean temperature over the Indian Ocean during contrasting monsoons

Recent research emphasizes the importance of the oceanic feedback to monsoon rainfall over the Asian landmass. In this study, we investigate the differences in the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and upper ocean temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean during multiple strong and weak monsoons. Analysis of satellite derived SSHA, sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean reanalysis data reveals that patterns of SSHA, SST, ocean temperature, upper ocean heat content (UOHC) and propagations of Kelvin and Rossby waves differ during strong and weak monsoon years. During strong monsoons positive SSH, SST and UOHC anomalies develop over large parts of north Indian Ocean whereas during weak monsoons much of the north Indian Ocean is covered with negative anomalies. These patterns can be used as a standard tool for evaluating the performance of coupled and ocean models in simulating & forecasting strong and weak monsoons. The rainfall over central India is found to be significantly correlated with SSHA over the regions (Arabian Sea and West central Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal) where SSHA is positively large during strong monsoons. The SST-SSHA correlation is also very strong over the same area. The study reveals that much convection takes place over these regions during strong monsoons. In contrast during weak monsoons, convection takes place over eastern equatorial region. These changes in SST are largely influenced by oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves. The Rossby waves initiated in spring at the eastern boundary propagate sub-surface heat content in the ocean influencing SST in summer. The SST anomalies modulate the Hadley circulation and the moisture transport thereby contributing to rainfall over central India. Therefore oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves influence the rainfall over central India.

Kelvin Waves around Antarctica

Abstract The Southern Ocean allows circumpolar structure and the Antarctic coastline plays a role as a waveguide for oceanic Kelvin waves. Under the cyclic conditions, the horizontal wavenumbers and frequencies for circumpolarly propagating waves are quantized, with horizontal wavenumbers 1, 2, and 3, corresponding to periods of about 32, 16, and 11 h, respectively. At these frequencies, westward-propagating signals are detected in sea level variation observed at Antarctic coastal stations. The occurrence frequency of westward-propagating signals far exceeds the statistical significance, and the phase speed of the observed signal agrees well with the theoretical phase speed of external Kelvin waves. Therefore, this study concludes that the observed, westward-propagating sea level variability is a signal of the external Kelvin waves of wavenumbers 1, 2, and 3 around Antarctica. A series of numerical model experiments confirms that Kelvin waves around Antarctica are driven by surface air pressure and that these waves are excited not only by local forcing over the Southern Ocean, but also by remote forcing over the Pacific Ocean. Sea level variations generated over the Pacific Ocean can travel to the western side of the South American coast and cross over Drake Passage to the Antarctic continent, constituting a part of the Kelvin waves around Antarctica.

The ocean-atmosphere response to wind-induced thermocline changes in the tropical South Western Indian Ocean

In the Indian Ocean basin the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are most sensitive to changes in the oceanic depth of the thermocline in the region of the Seychelles Dome. Observational studies have suggested that the strong SST variations in this region influence the atmospheric evolution around the basin, while its impact could extend far into the Pacific and the extra-tropics. Here we study the adjustments of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to a winter shallow doming event using dedicated ensemble simulations with the state-of-the-art EC-Earth climate model. The doming creates an equatorial Kelvin wave and a pair of westward moving Rossby waves, leading to higher SST 1–2 months later in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Atmospheric convection is strengthened and the Walker circulation responds with reduced convection over Indonesia and cooling of the SST in that region. The Pacific warm pool convection shifts eastward and an oceanic Kelvin wave is triggered at thermocline depth. The wave leads to an SST warming in the East Equatorial Pacific 5–6 months after the initiation of the Seychelles Dome event. The atmosphere responds to this warming with weak anomalous atmospheric convection. The changes in the upper tropospheric divergence in this sequence of events create large-scale Rossby waves that propagate away from the tropics along the atmospheric waveguides. We suggest to repeat these types of experiments with other models to test the robustness of the results. We also suggest to create the doming event in June so that the East-Pacific warming occurs in November when the atmosphere is most sensitive to SST anomalies and El Nino could possibly be triggered by the doming event under suitable conditions.

On the Atlantic–Pacific Niños connection: a multidecadal modulated mode

Atlantic and Pacific El Niño are the leading tropical oceanic variability phenomena at interannual timescales. Recent studies have demonstrated how the Atlantic Niño is able to influence on the dynamical processes triggering the development of the Pacific La Niña and vice versa. However, the stationarity of this interbasin connection is still controversial. Here we show for the first time that the Atlantic–Pacific Niños connection takes place at particular decades, coinciding with negative phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During these decades, the Atlantic–Pacific connection appears as the leading coupled covariability mode between Tropical Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. The mode is defined by a predictor field, the summer Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and a set of predictand fields which represent a chain of atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms to generate the Pacific El Niño phenomenon: alteration of the Walker circulation, surface winds in western Pacific, oceanic Kelvin wave propagating eastward and impacting on the eastern thermocline and changes in the Pacific SST by internal Bjerknes feedback. We suggest that the multidecadal component of the Atlantic acts as a switch for El Niño prediction during certain decades, putting forward the AMO as the modulator, acting through changes in the equatorial Atlantic convection and the equatorial Pacific SST variability. These results could have a major relevance for the decadal prediction systems.

Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialized 15 day hindcasts of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model atmosphere control simulation (atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection. Results indicate that the coupled configuration (coupled general circulation model (CGCM)) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3–5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feedback on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air‐sea coupling for the MJO.

Ocean variability along the southern coast of Java and Lesser Sunda Islands

The sea surface height data from 1992 through 2012 in the Eastern Indian Ocean, the 6 sets of hydrographic data sparsely spanning 1990–2001 in water south of Java–Bali, and the 24 shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data across the Ombai Strait during 1997–2000 were used as a combined dataset to understand sea level and current variability along the southern coast of Java and Lesser Sunda Islands. The first two dominant empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes capture combined seasonal with interannual and seasonal variability that account for 44.5 and 19.9 % of the total variances caused by El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole events, and by the seasonal change of the Asian monsoon, respectively. The geostrophic current and ADCP data show that the eastward and westward currents are distinguishable via the vertical profiles of current velocity. The eastward-flowing South Java Current (SJC) is characterized by a large vertical shear and shallower diminishing depth of about 150 m and it is increased to 300 m in the presence of the Indian Ocean Kelvin Waves (IOKWs). In contrast, the westward current is dominated by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with no vertical shear and has uniform current in the upper 300 m layer. The coastally trapped SJC and IOKWs are responsible for the eastward current. The SJC is not observed in the westward current because of non-existence of coastally trapped modes. The ITF and SJC generate persistent cyclonic (cold) and anticyclonic (warm) mesoscale eddies, respectively, in waters south of eastern Java.

Intraseasonal Tropical Atmospheric Variability Associated with the Two Flavors of El Niño

ABSTRACT The characteristics of intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) associated with the two flavors of El Niño [i.e., the canonical or eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the Modoki or central Pacific (CP) El Niño] are documented using composite and regression analysis. Double space–time Fourier analysis is applied to the NCEP–NCAR zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850) to separate the different components of the ITV in the tropical troposphere, which is then used to define indices of wave activity, and document the spatial pattern of the waves. It is shown that the ITV characteristics are altered during CP El Niño compared to the typical seasonal dependence of the ITV–ENSO relationship. In particular, while EP El Niño is characterized by enhanced MJO and equatorial Rossby (ER) wave activity during spring–summer prior to the ENSO peak, during CP El Niño, the ITV activity is increased during the mature and decaying phases. It is suggested that ITV is more propitious to the triggering of the EP event; while during the CP event, it contributes mostly to the persistence of positive SST anomalies. The oceanic response of these ITV anomalous patterns is further investigated in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis by documenting the seasonal evolution of the intraseasonal equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (IEKW) activity during the two flavors of El Niño. It is shown that anomalous westerlies associated with ITV may generate the corresponding response in the ocean in the form of anomalous IEKW activity.

ENSO prediction one year in advance using western North Pacific sea surface temperatures

We present evidence that the de‐trended, boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) are a skillful predictor for the development of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the following winter. The WNP shares some similarities with the Meridional Mode (MM) located in the subtropical central and eastern North Pacific: both are linked to off‐equatorial SSTA and low‐level wind anomalies, and both appear to be strongly related to wintertime variability in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). However, in contrast with the MM, the WNP is associated with an opposite‐signed SSTA dipole located off southeastern Asia and in the western tropical Pacific, which is accompanied by equatorial winds that may influence the level of oceanic Kelvin wave activity that precedes ENSO events.

Modes of covariability between sea surface temperature and wind stress intraseasonal anomalies along the coast of Peru from satellite observations (2000–2008)

[1] The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager sea surface temperature (SST) and QuikSCAT wind stress satellite data are used to investigate the intraseasonal upwelling variability along the coat of Peru over the period 2000–2008. Two regions of peak variance correspond to the central Peru region (Pisco region, 15°S) and the northern Peru region (Piura region, 5°S). A covariance analysis reveals a significant coherency between winds and SST anomalies off Pisco, consistent with Ekman pumping and transport dynamics. The upwelling cell consists in a meridionally extended fringe of colder (warmer) water extending as far as 250 km from the coast at 15°S. In the Piura region, the intraseasonal covariability pattern is represented by two modes, one relevant to the direct Ekman dynamics and the other one associated with the remote forcing of intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin wave. Two regimes of variability are evidenced. A low-period regime (10–25 days) is the signature of Ekman transport/pumping dynamics and is remotely forced by the migratory atmospheric disturbances across the southeastern Pacific anticyclone. A high-period regime (35–60 day band) is associated with the combined forcing of oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves and migratory atmospheric disturbances in the midlatitudes. In particular, the modes of covariability exhibit a prominent ∼50 day period energy peak. It is shown that this period arises from the impact of the first two baroclinic modes Kelvin wave, with the second baroclinic mode Kelvin wave being more influential on the Piura region.