Ocean Iron Research Articles

Drivers of ocean iron stress variability in high nutrient-low chlorophyll regions from ocean color

Drivers of ocean iron stress variability in high nutrient-low chlorophyll regions from ocean color

The response of the ocean carbon cycle to artificial upwelling, ocean iron fertilization and the combination of both

The response of the ocean carbon cycle to artificial upwelling, ocean iron fertilization and the combination of both

Next steps for assessing ocean iron fertilization for marine carbon dioxide removal

There are many potential approaches to marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), of which ocean iron fertilization (OIF) has the longest history of study. However, OIF studies to date were not primarily designed to quantify the durability of carbon (C) storage, nor how wise OIF might be as an mCDR approach. To quantify C sequestration, we introduce a metric called the “centennial tonne,” defined as 1,000 kg of C isolated from atmospheric contact for on average at least 100 years. We present the activities needed to assess OIF from a scientific and technological perspective, and additionally, how it might be responsibly studied and potentially deployed. The five activities include: field studies in the Northeast Pacific; improved modeling for field studies, data assimilation and predictions at larger scales; improvements in monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) for C, and also MRV for tracking ecological and environmental impacts; and developing new iron sources and their delivery, to increase efficiencies and reduce costs. The fifth activity is to understand whether public and community support exists for OIF, and what governance structures might support further research and possible deployment of OIF. This article is written by a multidisciplinary experts group called Exploring Ocean Iron Solutions (ExOIS) that is organized around a responsible code of conduct. Of the mCDR approaches, OIF has the potential to be low cost, scalable, and rapidly deployable. Reducing CO2 emissions must lead the way, but there is also an urgency to decide under what conditions and whether OIF might be deployed or not.

Design and Implementation of Iron-Based Electrochemical System for Simultaneous Carbon Capture and Hydrogen Gas Recovery

The catastrophic results of climate change and energy crisis, such as the rise in wildfires, floods, and ecosystem disruptions highlight the critical need of urgent and innovative global-scale solutions for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR). Ocean-based CDR methods, leveraging the ocean's capacity as a large sink to sequester up to 30% of emissions, offer a great promise. Yet, implementing and testing marine CO2 removal (mCDR) techniques such as ocean iron fertilization (OIF) or ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) face significant challenges. To overcome these challenges, a novel self-operating electrochemical technology is designed and presented in this work. The proposed technology, namely electrochemical OIF (EOIF), does not only combine OIF and OAE, but also recovers hydrogen gas (H2) from seawater, offering a promising solution for achieving quantifiable and transparent large-scale mCDR. The EOIF design s focused on employing Fe/Fe-producing anodes to eliminate the production of acids at the anode in traditional electrochemical OAE systems and replace it with Fe release, where the cathode can be made from naturally abundant cost-effective materials, such as carbon. The obtained results show that the EOIF system can be implemented to increase both the concentration of ferrous iron (Fe+2) by 0-0.5 mg/L, and the seawater pH by 8% (i.e., 25% decrease in the hydrogen ions concentration). It also offers the flexibility to optimize the release of iron (Fe+2/Fe+3) by adjusting the magnitude of the electric current in the systems, as well as by optimizing the electrode material and geometry. In certain ocean regions, enhanced iron concentrations stimulate the naturally occurring biological carbon pump (BCP), leading to increased phytoplankton growth, CO2 uptake, and subsequent export of carbon to the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the system increases seawater alkalinity and the buffer capacity, enhancing CO2 solubility and storage in the shallow ocean through the solubility pump. The techno-economic assessment shows that the combined advantages of the EOIF system can lower the mCDR cost by more than 95% compared to the traditional methods. The obtained measurements demonstrate the scalability of EOIF and its ability to operate using solar energy at a lower cost. Overall, the proposed EOIF technology offers a practical, effective, and sustainable solution for addressing climate change and energy recovery on a large-scale.

Response of Southern Ocean Resource Stress in a Changing Climate

AbstractPhytoplankton underpin ocean net primary production (NPP) and Southern Ocean phytoplankton display different ecological‐biogeochemical traits, compared to temperate species. Climate models currently forecast consistent across‐model NPP increases due to climate change, yet neglect specific aspects of the Southern Ocean ecological‐biogeochemical system. We conducted experiments to evaluate how key regional traits, including multiple limiting nutrients, unique photophysiology and differential resource acquisition, drive changes in the projected response of resource stress, NPP and export production under a high emissions scenario. Although Southern Ocean iron limitation is widespread, it declines in the future and is replaced by growing manganese limitation, as concentrations cannot support increasing growth rates. Distinct phytoplankton traits either amplify or dampen climate‐driven changes, depending on whether they are those typical of Antarctic or temperate phytoplankton, respectively. Overall, future Southern Ocean NPP trends may be more uncertain than currently assumed and future efforts should focus on accounting for regional ecological‐biogeochemical differences.

Electrochemical ocean iron fertilization and alkalinity enhancement approach toward CO2 sequestration

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires the development of effective negative emission techniques, including ocean-based approaches for CO2 sequestration. However, the implementation and testing of marine CO2 removal (mCDR) techniques such as ocean iron fertilization (OIF) or ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) face significant challenges. Herein, a novel self-operating electrochemical technology is presented that not only combines OIF and OAE, but also recovers hydrogen gas (H2) from seawater, hence offering a promising solution for achieving quantifiable and transparent large-scale mCDR. Experimental results show that the electrochemical OIF (EOIF) can not only increase the concentration of ferrous iron (Fe+2) by 0–0.5 mg/L, but also significantly increases the seawater pH by 8% (i.e., a 25% decrease in the hydrogen ions concentration). The release of iron (Fe+2/Fe+3) can be regulated by adjusting the magnitude of the electric current and its form (e.g., pulsed current and polarity reversal), as well as by optimizing the electrode material and geometry. In certain ocean regions, enhanced iron concentrations stimulate the naturally occurring biological carbon pump (BCP), leading to increased phytoplankton growth, CO2 uptake, and subsequent export of carbon to the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the system increases seawater alkalinity and the buffer capacity, enhancing CO2 solubility and storage in the shallow ocean through the solubility pump. The obtained measurements demonstrate the scalability of EOIF and its ability to operate using solar energy at a lower cost. Overall, the proposed EOIF technology offers a practical, effective, and sustainable solution for addressing climate change on a large scale.

A Cost Model for Ocean Iron Fertilization as a Means of Carbon Dioxide Removal That Compares Ship‐ and Aerial‐Based Delivery, and Estimates Verification Costs

AbstractWe present a cost model for implementing a deployment scale effort for conducting ocean iron fertilization (OIF) for marine‐based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The model incorporates basic oceanographic parameters critical for estimating the effective export of newly fixed CO2 into biomass that is stimulated by Fe addition to an Fe‐limited region of the Southern Ocean. Estimated costs can vary by nearly 100‐fold between best‐case and worst‐case scenarios, with best‐case values of $7/net tonne C captured versus worst‐case $1,500/net tonne C captured, without accounting for verification costs. Primary oceanographic factors that influence cost are the net primary productivity increases achieved via OIF, the amount of C exported into the deep ocean, and the amount of CO2 ventilated back to the atmosphere. The model compares ship‐based versus aerial delivery of Fe to the ocean, and estimates aerial delivery can be 30%–40% more cost effective; however, the specific requirements for aerial delivery require additional research and development. The model also estimates costs associated with verification and environmental monitoring of OIF. These costs increase $/net tonne C captured by 3–4‐fold. Best, intermediate, and worst cases for aerial delivery and ship delivery are $21, $83, $2,033, and $24, $94, $4,691, respectively, inclusive of verification costs. The primary goal of this model is to demonstrate the variability in cost of OIF as a CDR method, and to better understand where additional research is needed to determine the major factors that may make OIF a tractable, nature‐based CDR method.

Implementation of marine CO2 removal for climate mitigation: The challenges of additionality, predictability, and governability

Achieving net zero CO2 emissions requires gigatonne-scale atmospheric CO2 removal (CDR) to balance residual emissions that are extremely difficult to eliminate. Marine CDR (mCDR) methods are seen increasingly as potentially important additions to a global portfolio of climate policy actions. The most widely considered mCDR methods are coastal blue carbon and seaweed farming that primarily depend on biological manipulations; ocean iron fertilisation, ocean alkalinity enhancement, and direct ocean capture that depend on chemical manipulations; and artificial upwelling that depends on physical manipulation of the ocean system. It is currently highly uncertain which, if any, of these approaches might be implemented at sufficient scale to make a meaningful contribution to net zero. Here, we derive a framework based on additionality, predictability, and governability to assess implementation challenges for these mCDR methods. We argue that additionality, the net increase of CO2 sequestration due to mCDR relative to the baseline state, will be harder to determine for those mCDR methods with relatively large inherent complexity, and therefore higher potential for unpredictable impacts, both climatic and non-climatic. Predictability is inherently lower for mCDR methods that depend on biology than for methods relying on chemical or physical manipulations. Furthermore, predictability is lower for methods that require manipulation of multiple components of the ocean system. The predictability of an mCDR method also affects its governability, as highly complex mCDR methods with uncertain outcomes and greater likelihood of unintended consequences will require more monitoring and regulation, both for risk management and verified carbon accounting. We argue that systematic assessment of additionality, predictability, and governability of mCDR approaches increases their chances of leading to a net climatic benefit and informs political decision-making around their potential implementation.

A diatom extension to the cGEnIE Earth system model – EcoGEnIE 1.1

Abstract. We extend the ecological component (ECOGEM) of the carbon-centric Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model (cGEnIE) to include a diatom functional group. ECOGEM represents plankton community dynamics via a spectrum of ecophysiological traits originally based on size and plankton food web (phyto- and zooplankton; EcoGEnIE 1.0), which we developed here to account for a diatom functional group (EcoGEnIE 1.1). We tuned EcoGEnIE 1.1, exploring a range of ecophysiological parameter values specific to phytoplankton, including diatom growth and survival (18 parameters over 550 runs) to achieve best fits to observations of diatom biogeography and size class distribution as well as to global ocean nutrient and dissolved oxygen distributions. This, in conjunction with a previously developed representation of opal dissolution and an updated representation of the ocean iron cycle in the water column, resulted in an improved distribution of dissolved oxygen in the water column relative to the previous EcoGEnIE 1.0, with global export production (7.4 Gt C yr−1) now closer to previous estimates. Simulated diatom biogeography is characterised by larger size classes dominating at high latitudes, notably in the Southern Ocean, and smaller size classes dominating at lower latitudes. Overall, diatom biological productivity accounts for ∼20 % of global carbon biomass in the model, with diatoms outcompeting other phytoplankton functional groups when dissolved silica is available due to their faster maximum photosynthetic rates and reduced palatability to grazers. Adding a diatom functional group provides the cGEnIE Earth system model with an extended capability to explore ecological dynamics and their influence on ocean biogeochemistry.

Interactions between the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium and siderophore-producing cyanobacterium Synechococcus under iron limitation.

As diazotrophic cyanobacteria of tremendous biomass, Trichodesmium continuously provide a nitrogen source for carbon-fixing cyanobacteria and drive the generation of primary productivity in marine environments. However, ocean iron deficiencies limit growth and metabolism of Trichodesmium. Recent studies have shown the co-occurrence of Trichodesmium and siderophore-producing Synechococcus in iron-deficient oceans, but whether siderophores secreted by Synechococcus can be used by Trichodesmium to adapt to iron deficiency is not clear. We constructed a mutant Synechococcus strain unable to produce siderophores to explore this issue. Synechococcus filtrates with or without siderophores were added into a Trichodesmium microbial consortium consisting of Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS 101 as the dominant microbe with chronic iron deficiency. By analyzing the physiological phenotype, metagenome, and metatranscriptome, we investigated the interactions between the nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Tricodesmium and siderophore-producing cyanobacterium Synechococcus under conditions of iron deficiency. The results indicated that siderophores secreted by Synechococcus are likely to chelate with free iron in the culture medium of the Trichodesmium consortium, reducing the concentration of bioavailable iron and posing greater challenges to the absorption of iron by Trichodesmium. These findings revealed the characteristics of iron-competitive utilization between diazotrophic cyanobacteria and siderophore-producing cyanobacteria, as well as potential interactions, and provide a scientific basis for understanding the regulatory effects of nutrient limitation on marine primary productivity.

Assessing the Ecological Implications of Ocean Iron Fertilization: Insights from Post-Eruption Volcanic Processes

This study proposes the usage of post-eruption volcanic processes as a natural analog for assessing the potential impacts of man-made iron fertilization on ocean ecosystems. Data is compiled from the 14 most explosive volcanic eruptions since 1884 to establish correlations between climate temperature anomalies and phytoplankton growth induced by volcanic tephra fallout in addition to other post-eruption variables. Through a comparative analysis of the contrasting strengths of these relationships using a student t-test for statistical significance, multivariable regression analysis, and linear regression interpretation, the scale of ocean iron fertilization is quantified. Two well-documented modern volcanic eruptions in Hawaii and Iceland are additionally employed as case studies to provide a comprehensive understanding of micro phenomenons occurring post-eruption. Rapid algae growth is demonstrated in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll regions (HNLC), where long-term growth can be sustained for up to six months. Statistical results isolate the effect of stratospheric injection from ocean iron fertilization, demonstrating the effectiveness of tephra ash fallout in inducing regional phytoplankton growth. In all, these findings contribute to a comprehension of the potential ecological consequences of iron fertilization efforts, an approach to assess environmental implications without direct experimentation.

GEOTRACES: Ironing Out the Details of the Oceanic Iron Sources?

Dissolved iron (dFe) is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton, with vanishingly low oceanic dissolved concentrations (pico- to nanomoles per kg) known to limit growth—and thus influence primary productivity and carbon cycling—over much of the surface ocean. However, because of the considerable challenges associated with contamination-free sample collection and accurate analysis of such low dFe concentrations, the first reliable dFe measurements came only in the 1980s. Further, by 2003, despite several decades of research, there were only ~25 full-depth oceanic dFe profiles worldwide, with dust considered to be the main oceanic dFe source. Since 2008, facilitated by the extensive field campaign and rigorous intercalibration of the international GEOTRACES program, there has been an “explosion” in the availability of oceanic dFe data, with hundreds of profiles now available. Concurrently, there has been a paradigm shift to a view of the marine Fe cycle where multiple sources contribute, and some forms of dFe can be transported great distances through the intermediate and deep ocean. Here, we showcase the GEOTRACES dFe datasets across the different ocean basins, synthesize our current multi-source view of the oceanic Fe cycle, spotlight sediments as an important dFe source, and look to future directions for constraining oceanic dFe boundary exchange.

Natural ocean iron fertilization and climate variability over geological periods.

Marine primary producers are largely dependent on and shape the Earth's climate, although their relationship with climate varies over space and time. The growth of phytoplankton and associated marine primary productivity in most of the modern global ocean is limited by the supply of nutrients, including the micronutrient iron. The addition of iron via episodic and frequent events drives the biological carbon pump and promotes the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) into the ocean. However, the dependence between iron and marine primary producers adaptively changes over different geological periods due to the variation in global climate and environment. In this review, we examined the role and importance of iron in modulating marine primary production during some specific geological periods, that is, the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) during the Huronian glaciation, the Snowball Earth Event during the Cryogenian, the glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene, and the period from the last glacial maximum to the late Holocene. Only the change trend of iron bioavailability and climate in the glacial-interglacial cycles is consistent with the Iron Hypothesis. During the GOE and the Snowball Earth periods, although the bioavailability of iron in the ocean and the climate changed dramatically, the changing trend of many factors contradicted the Iron Hypothesis. By detangling the relationship among marine primary productivity, iron availability and oceanic environments in different geological periods, this review can offer some new insights for evaluating the impact of ocean iron fertilization on removing CO2 from the atmosphere and regulating the climate.

Increasing iron concentration inhibits the Al-incorporation into the diatom biogenic silica: From laboratory simulation of ocean iron fertilization

Incorporated aluminum (Al) in diatom biogenic silicon (BSi) by biological behaviors shows a dissolution-inhibition effect for BSi, thus affecting the organic carbon export driven by diatoms. Ocean iron fertilization (OIF) aims to reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 by promoting diatom blooms to enhanced the biological pump. However, BSi dissolved in a short time, leading to low efficacy of the carbon export. Considering the key role of incorporated Al in BSi dissolution, it is necessary to investigate the influence of increasing iron concentrations during OIF on Al incorporation of BSi. A lab simulation experiment, whereby Thalassiosira weissflogii was selected as a model marine diatom, was performed to reveal the effects of increasing iron concentrations on Al incorporation to BSi. Microanalyses including focused ion beams (FIB), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), and high-resolution energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDS) were used to identify the incorporated Al in BSi and evaluate its content. Results showed that increasing the iron concentration in the culture medium increased the cell yields but decreased the relative content of incorporated Al in BSi. The Al decrease resulted in the reduction of its effects in dissolution-habitation of BSi, which most likely also occurred during OIF. Therefore, the coupled SiAl biogeochemical cycle and the export of organic carbon from the surface ocean driven by diatoms would be influenced by the addition of iron during OIF.

Authigenic mineral phases as a driver of the upper-ocean iron cycle.

Iron is important in regulating the ocean carbon cycle1. Although several dissolved and particulate species participate in oceanic iron cycling, current understanding emphasizes the importance of complexation by organic ligands in stabilizing oceanic dissolved iron concentrations2-6. However, it is difficult to reconcile this view of ligands as a primary control on dissolved iron cycling with the observed size partitioning of dissolved iron species, inefficient dissolved iron regeneration at depth or the potential importance of authigenic iron phases in particulate iron observational datasets7-12. Here we present a new dissolved iron, ligand and particulate iron seasonal dataset from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) region. We find that upper-ocean dissolved iron dynamics were decoupled from those of ligands, which necessitates a process by which dissolved iron escapes ligand stabilization to generate a reservoir of authigenic iron particles that settle to depth. When this 'colloidal shunt' mechanism was implemented in a global-scale biogeochemical model, it reproduced both seasonal iron-cycledynamics observations and independent global datasets when previous models failed13-15. Overall, we argue that the turnover of authigenic particulate iron phases must be considered alongside biological activity and ligands in controlling ocean-dissolved iron distributions and the coupling between dissolved and particulate iron pools.

Impact of iron fertilisation on atmospheric CO2 during the last glaciation

Abstract. While several processes have been identified to explain the decrease in atmospheric CO2 during glaciations, a better quantification of the contribution of each of these processes is needed. For example, enhanced aeolian iron input into the ocean during glacial times has been suggested to drive a 5 to 28 ppm atmospheric CO2 decrease. Here, we constrain this contribution by performing a set of sensitivity experiments with different aeolian iron input patterns and iron solubility factors under boundary conditions corresponding to 70 000 years before present (70 ka), a time period characterised by the first observed peak in glacial dust flux. We show that the decrease in CO2 as a function of Southern Ocean iron input follows an exponential decay relationship. This exponential decay response arises due to the saturation of the biological pump efficiency and levels out at ∼21 ppm in our simulations. We show that the changes in atmospheric CO2 are more sensitive to the solubility of iron in the ocean than the regional distribution of the iron fluxes. If surface water iron solubility is considered constant through time, we find a CO2 drawdown of ∼4 to ∼8 ppm. However, there is evidence that iron solubility was higher during glacial times. A best estimate of solubility changing from 1 % during interglacials to 3 % to 5 % under glacial conditions yields a ∼9 to 11 ppm CO2 decrease at 70 ka, while a plausible range of CO2 drawdown between 4 to 16 ppm is obtained using the wider but possible range of 1 % to 10 %. This would account for ∼12 %–50 % of the reconstructed decrease in atmospheric CO2 (∼32 ppm) between 71 and 64 ka. We further find that in our simulations the decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration is solely driven by iron fluxes south of the Antarctic polar front, while iron fertilisation elsewhere plays a negligible role.

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit.

Climate change scenarios suggest that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be required to maintain global warming below 2°C, leading to renewed attention on ocean iron fertilization (OIF). Previous OIF modelling has found that while carbon export increases, nutrient transport to lower latitude ecosystems declines, resulting in a modest impact on atmospheric CO2 . However, the interaction of these CDR responses with ongoing climate change is unknown. Here, we combine global ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models to show that, while stimulating carbon sequestration, OIF may amplify climate-induced declines in tropical ocean productivity and ecosystem biomass under a high-emission scenario, with very limited potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown. The 'biogeochemical fingerprint' of climate change, that leads to depletion of upper ocean major nutrients due to upper ocean stratification, is reinforced by OIF due to greater major nutrient consumption. Our simulations show that reductions in upper trophic level animal biomass in tropical regions due to climate change would be exacerbated by OIF within ~20 years, especially in coastal exclusive economic zones (EEZs), with potential implications for fisheries that underpin the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities. Any fertilization-based CDR should therefore consider its interaction with ongoing climate-driven changes and the ensuing ecosystem impacts in national EEZs.

The contribution of penguin guano to the Southern Ocean iron pool

Iron plays a crucial role in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll Southern Ocean regions, promoting phytoplankton growth and enhancing atmospheric carbon sequestration. In this area, iron-rich Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and baleen whale species, which are among their main predators, play a large role in the recycling of iron. However, penguins have received limited attention despite their representing the largest seabird biomass in the southern polar region. Here, we use breeding site guano volumes estimated from drone images, deep learning-powered penguin census, and guano chemical composition to assess the iron export to the Antarctic waters from one of the most abundant penguin species, the Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus). Our results show that these seabirds are a relevant contributor to the iron remobilization pool in the Southern Ocean. With an average guano concentration of 3 mg iron g−1, we estimate that the Chinstrap penguin population is recycling 521 tonnes iron yr−1, representing the current iron contribution half of the amount these penguins were able to recycle four decades ago, as they have declined by more than 50% since then.

Marine methods for carbon dioxide removal: fundamentals and myth-busting for the wider community

Abstract To avoid global warming in excess of 1.5°C under the current sluggish adoption of drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, application of methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will become essential in the near future; yet, development of these methods is in its infancy. Land-based methods are further developed than marine methods, but it is likely that similar-scaled application will be necessary in both realms. There are many misconceptions in discussion groups and fora about the ‘simplicity’ or ‘ease’ of proposed marine applications, partly because the complex marine carbon cycle is insufficiently understood by the proponents, having been discussed in largely inaccessible, technical texts only. This review outlines the basic operation of the marine carbon cycle in straightforward terms, with some simplifications, to help advance the debate among the wider community. Break-out boxes provide additional detail where desired, and references (and the sources cited therein) provide avenues for further study. The review then discusses two potential marine methods for atmospheric carbon removal that are thought to offer the greatest potential in terms of carbon removal mass: ocean iron fertilization and ocean alkalinity enhancement. Finally, six statements/arguments that seem to regularly crop up in carbon removal discussion groups are evaluated within the perspective of the compiled and reviewed information.

Southern Ocean Iron Limitation of Primary Production between Past Knowledge and Future Projections

Primary production in the Southern Ocean highly depends on phytoplankton and has been reported to be limited by the availability of the micronutrient iron. The aim of this review is to summarize the past and current knowledge on iron limitation in the Southern Ocean, and specifically how it affects primary producers, thus influencing the whole Southern Ocean community structure, carbon cycling, and large-scale ocean biogeochemistry. In this region, extensive variability exists between different areas regarding iron availability, but also between seasons. Moreover, co-limitations with other abiotic environmental factors exist, further complicating the assessment of the role of iron as limiting factor for phytoplankton productivity. Currently, climate change is altering the Southern Ocean environment. How these changes will affect resident phytoplankton is still not clear, possibly modifying the iron supply mechanisms. Existing projections point towards a possible partial relief of iron stress on phytoplankton, but the interactions between different environmental changes, and the cascade effects they will have, are still poorly understood, and some aspects understudied. Here we try to synthetize the available predictions and uncertainties concerning this topic.