Assessing the Ecological Implications of Ocean Iron Fertilization: Insights from Post-Eruption Volcanic Processes

Abstract

This study proposes the usage of post-eruption volcanic processes as a natural analog for assessing the potential impacts of man-made iron fertilization on ocean ecosystems. Data is compiled from the 14 most explosive volcanic eruptions since 1884 to establish correlations between climate temperature anomalies and phytoplankton growth induced by volcanic tephra fallout in addition to other post-eruption variables. Through a comparative analysis of the contrasting strengths of these relationships using a student t-test for statistical significance, multivariable regression analysis, and linear regression interpretation, the scale of ocean iron fertilization is quantified. Two well-documented modern volcanic eruptions in Hawaii and Iceland are additionally employed as case studies to provide a comprehensive understanding of micro phenomenons occurring post-eruption. Rapid algae growth is demonstrated in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll regions (HNLC), where long-term growth can be sustained for up to six months. Statistical results isolate the effect of stratospheric injection from ocean iron fertilization, demonstrating the effectiveness of tephra ash fallout in inducing regional phytoplankton growth. In all, these findings contribute to a comprehension of the potential ecological consequences of iron fertilization efforts, an approach to assess environmental implications without direct experimentation.