Ocean Atmosphere Feedback Research Articles

The North Pacific Blob acts to increase the predictability of the Atlantic warm pool

The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) has profound impacts on extreme weather events and climate variability. Factors influencing the AWP and its predictability are still not fully understood. Other than local ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find an extratropical precursor from the Northeast Pacific (known as the Blob), which leads the AWP by 1 year with a robust correlation (r = 0.68). A suite of Northeast Pacific pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the leading influence of the Blob on the AWP. The preceding summer Blob-related sea surface temperature (SST) warming signal can be transmitted towards the lower latitudes through the seasonal footprint mechanism, leading to the central Pacific warming in the winter and following spring. Such a strong tropical Pacific SST heating excites an anomalous atmospheric wave train that resembles the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. At the downstream portion of the PNA, the low sea surface pressure anomalies can be found over the AWP region during the following spring. The anomalous low initiates the AWP SST warming, and the AWP warmer SST can persist into summer and is further amplified due to ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. Our results show that the North Pacific Blob may act as a useful predictor of the AWP 1 year in advance through trans-basin interactions. A Blob-based prediction model shows considerable hindcast skill for the observed AWP SST anomaly.

Subpolar Gyre – AMOC – Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model

AbstractThere is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere-ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and atmosphere-ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic and meridional overturning streamfunctions, and sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic sector variability. This mode accounting for 23.7 % of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25-50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which reduces deep convection and eventually AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat-flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.

Depth Structure of Ningaloo Niño/Niña Events and Associated Drivers

AbstractMarine heatwaves along the coast of Western Australia, referred to as Ningaloo Niño, have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystem in the recent decade. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been put forward; however, little is known about the depth structure of such temperature extremes. Utilizing an eddy-active global ocean general circulation model, Ningaloo Niño and the corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events are investigated between 1958 and 2016, with a focus on their depth structure. The relative roles of buoyancy and wind forcing are inferred from sensitivity experiments. Composites reveal a strong symmetry between cold and warm events in their vertical structure and associated large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature anomalies are largest at the surface, where buoyancy forcing is dominant, and extend down to 300-m depth (or deeper), with wind forcing being the main driver. Large-scale subsurface anomalies arise from a vertical modulation of the thermocline, extending from the western Pacific into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The strongest Ningaloo Niños in 2000 and 2011 are unprecedented compound events, where long-lasting high temperatures are accompanied by extreme freshening, which emerges in association with La Niñas, that is more common and persistent during the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. It is shown that Ningaloo Niños during La Niña phases have a distinctively deeper reach and are associated with a strengthening of the Leeuwin Current, while events during El Niño are limited to the surface layer temperatures, likely driven by local atmosphere–ocean feedbacks, without a clear imprint on salinity and velocity.

Dynamics and oceanic response of the Madeira tip‐jets

AbstractMadeira island is a well‐known source of atmospheric and oceanic eddy activity, with relevant downstream impact in both media. Previous studies focused on the dynamics of the island wake environment, suggesting the relevance of different atmosphere–ocean interactions in its maintenance. Here, results from one summer (two months) of fully coupled atmosphere–ocean high‐resolution simulations are used to explore such interactions and to further understand the dynamics of Madeira's wake. Those results, validated against available in situ and remote‐sensing data, indicate that the atmospheric and ocean circulations near Madeira are dominated by the variability of two quasi‐permanent features, its tip‐jets, and more so by the variability of its eastern jet. While both jets are of comparable magnitude and present similar intraseasonal variability at the multi‐week time‐scale, they are associated with qualitatively different forcing. The jets dominate the atmosphere forcing over the upper ocean, leading to enhanced mixing and deeper mixed‐layer depth. Oceanic eddies are more frequent in the east jet region, as shedding anticyclones, confirming observational evidence. A comparison with a similar one‐way coupled atmospheric simulation indicates that atmosphere–ocean feedbacks are relevant to the coastal surface temperature.

Development, Amplification, and Decay of Atlantic/European Summer Weather Patterns Linked to Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

AbstractA recent study identified a relationship between North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in spring and a specific pattern of atmospheric circulation in the following summer: the summer east Atlantic (SEA) pattern. It was shown that the SEA pattern is closely associated with meridional shifts in the eddy-driven jet in response to anomalous SST gradients. In this study, the physical mechanisms underlying this relationship are investigated further. It is shown that the predictable SEA pattern anomalies appear in June–July and undergo substantial amplification between July and August before decaying in September. The associated SST anomalies also grow in magnitude and spatial extent from June to August. The question of why the predictable atmospheric anomalies should occur in summer is addressed, and three factors are identified. The first is the climatological position of the storm track, which migrates poleward from spring to summer. The second is that the magnitude of interannual SST variability underlying the storm track peaks in summer, both in absolute terms, and relative to the underlying mean SST gradient. The third factor is the most interesting. We identify a positive coupled ocean–atmosphere feedback, which operates in summer and leads to the amplification of both SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. The extent to which the identified processes are captured in the HadGEM3-GC2 climate model is also assessed. The model is able to capture the relationship between spring North Atlantic SSTs and subsequent ocean–atmosphere conditions in early summer, but the relationship is too weak. The results suggest that the real world might be more predictable than is inferred from the models.

Effects of Model Coupling on Typhoon Kalmaegi (2014) Simulation in the South China Sea

Typhoon Kalmaegi (2014) in the South China Sea (SCS) is simulated using a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave model (COAWST). A set of sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the effects of different model coupling combinations on the typhoon simulation. Model results are validated by employing in-situ data at four locations in the SCS, and best-track and satellite data. Correlation and root-mean-square difference are used to assess the simulation quality. A skill score system is defined from these two statistical criteria to evaluate the performance of model experiments relative to a baseline. Atmosphere–ocean feedback is crucial for accurate simulations. Our baseline experiment successfully reconstructs the atmospheric and oceanic conditions during Typhoon Kalmaegi. Typhoon-induced sea surface cooling that weakens the system due to less heat and moisture availability is captured best in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)-coupled run. The Simulated Wave Nearshore (SWAN)-coupled run has demonstrated the ability to estimate sea surface roughness better. Intense winds lead to a larger surface roughness where more heat and momentum are exchanged, while the rougher surface causes more friction, slowing down surface winds. From our experiments, we show that these intricate interactions require a fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–ROMS–SWAN model to best reproduce the environment during a typhoon.

Subseasonal coupling between subsurface subtropical front and overlying atmosphere in North pacific in winter

At least two main oceanic fronts (the subarctic and subtropical fronts) exist in the North Pacific. Especially in the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ), the sea subsurface temperature gradient is significantly larger than that of the surface layer in winter. Subseasonal interaction between the subsurface subtropical front and overlaying atmosphere is revealed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of oceanic temperature gradient. The first EOF mode mainly corresponds to the atmosphere-to-ocean influences. With the enhanced westerly wind, a cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) appears and then passes down to affect the subsurface ocean. However, the second EOF mode indicates the ocean-to-atmosphere forcing. For the second mode, cold oceanic temperature anomaly generates in the subsurface layer and passes up, which makes the SST gradient increasing. Due to the increasing atmospheric baroclinicity, the enhanced westerly wind leads to more heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, which results in a colder SSTA and a larger SST gradient in the STFZ. Therefore, a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback begins to maintain in the mid-latitude in winter.

The effect of mountain uplift on eastern boundary currents and upwelling systems

Abstract. All major mountain ranges are assumed to have been subject to increased uplifting processes during the late Miocene and Pliocene. Previous work has demonstrated that African uplift is an important element to explain Benguela upper-ocean cooling in the late Miocene–Pliocene. According to proxy records, a surface ocean cooling also occurred in other eastern boundary upwelling regions during the late Neogene. Here we investigate a set of sensitivity experiments altering topography in major mountain regions (Andes, North American Cordillera, and southern and East African mountains) separately with regard to the potential impact on the intensity of near-coastal low-level winds, Ekman transport and Ekman pumping, and upper-ocean cooling. The simulations show that mountain uplift is important for upper-ocean temperature evolution in the area of eastern boundary currents. The impact is primarily on the atmospheric circulation which is then acting on upper-ocean temperatures through changes in strengths of upwelling, horizontal heat advection and surface heat fluxes. Different atmosphere–ocean feedbacks additionally alter the sea surface temperature response to uplift. The relative importance of the different feedback mechanisms depends on the region, but it is most likely also influenced by model and model resolution.

Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions

AbstractOn interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large‐scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full‐field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large‐scale atmosphere–ocean feedback.This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models

Grazing control and iron limitation of primary production in the Arabian Sea: Implications for anticipated shifts in Southwest Monsoon intensity

The Arabian Sea is important in global biogeochemistry because of its high rates of primary production, its extensive zone of oxygen depletion and denitrification, and its expected strong response to global warming via ocean-atmosphere feedbacks to monsoon winds and upwelling intensity. Monsoon-driven upwelling leads to higher rates of primary production during the summer. However, the Arabian Sea paradoxically produces a weak and delayed phytoplankton response compared to other physically dynamic upwelling systems, and indeed has many of the characteristics of a high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) regime. Thick blooms of large diatoms are uniquely not evident in the Arabian Sea despite apparently abundant nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and silicate), seed stocks and hydrographic conditions that appear conducive. The subdued bloom response shifts carbon export offshore of the coastal upwelling area and delays major flux events until the latter stages of the SW Monsoon.While the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study in the Arabian Sea concluded that these observations can be explained by top-down control of primary production by grazers, recent data suggest that primary production may be limited by iron, consistent with other upwelling regimes. In this review, we examine the evidence for each hypothesis and offer some explanations that are consistent with both control mechanisms. We also assess how each hypothesis might explain how shifts in monsoon intensity and duration associated with climate change will affect Arabian Sea biogeochemistry. A strengthening monsoon will exacerbate iron limitation. This will lead to an eastward shift in the utilization of upwelled nutrients and intensify the oxygen minimum zone. A weakening monsoon will probably make iron limitation less important in the system.

Comparisons of hot summers in the Mediterranean and North China

In recent years, hot summers (HS) have played an important role in affecting people’s health and causing natural disasters. However, it is not very clear what HS should be attributed to. In order to investigate that, the anomalous of anticyclone associated with HS in the Mediterranean and North China is examined and compared by using data during the time period 1949~2018. Statistical analysis shows that summer temperature in the Mediterranean and North China is revealing a good correlation when removing the global warming trend. The composite results indicate that the anomalous warming during HS over different regions is both dominantly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone, which enhances the subsidence adiabatic heating of the temperature. Furthermore, the subtropical high (STH) variations faithfully represent the fluctuations in summer temperature over the Mediterranean (cor = 0.78) and North China (cor = 0.80). The anticyclonic anomalies over both focus areas are associated with North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (sst), respectively. These results indicate that the total influence of the STH position anomaly should be taken into consideration in different places during HS. However, whether such atmosphere-ocean feedback can be improved by numerical experiments is worthy to be further studied.

How accurately can the climate sensitivity to hbox {CO}_{2} be estimated from historical climate change?

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, in K) to hbox {CO}_{2} doubling is a large source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Estimates of ECS made from non-equilibrium states or in response to radiative forcings other than hbox {2}times hbox {CO}_{2} are called “effective climate sensitivity” (EffCS, in K). Taking a “perfect-model” approach, using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments, we evaluate the accuracy with which hbox {CO}_{2} EffCS can be estimated from climate change in the “historical” period (since about 1860). We find that (1) for statistical reasons, unforced variability makes the estimate of historical EffCS both uncertain and biased; it is overestimated by about 10% if the energy balance is applied to the entire historical period, 20% for 30-year periods, and larger factors for interannual variability, (2) systematic uncertainty in historical radiative forcing translates into an uncertainty of {pm },30, {rm to} ,45% (standard deviation) in historical EffCS, (3) the response to the changing relative importance of the forcing agents, principally hbox {CO}_{2} and volcanic aerosol, causes historical EffCS to vary over multidecadal timescales by a factor of two. In recent decades it reached its maximum in the AOGCM historical experiment (similar to the multimodel-mean hbox {CO}_{2} EffCS of 3.6 K from idealised experiments), but its minimum in the real world (1.6 K for an observational estimate for 1985–2011, similar to the multimodel-mean value for volcanic forcing). The real-world variations mean that historical EffCS underestimates hbox {CO}_{2} EffCS by 30% when considering the entire historical period. The difference for recent decades implies that either unforced variability or the response to volcanic forcing causes a much stronger regional pattern of sea surface temperature change in the real world than in AOGCMs. We speculate that this could be explained by a deficiency in simulated coupled atmosphere–ocean feedbacks which reinforce the pattern (resembling the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in some respects) that causes the low EffCS. We conclude that energy-balance estimates of hbox {CO}_{2} EffCS are most accurate from periods unaffected by volcanic forcing. Atmosphere GCMs provided with observed sea surface temperature for the 1920s to the 1950s, which was such a period, give a range of about 2.0–4.5 K, agreeing with idealised hbox {CO}_{2} AOGCM experiments; the consistency is a reason for confidence in this range as an estimate of hbox {CO}_{2} EffCS. Unless another explosive volcanic eruption occurs, the first 30 years of the present century may give a more accurate energy-balance historical estimate of this quantity.

Precipitation Biases in CMIP5 Models over the South Asian Region

Using data from 33 models from the CMIP5 historical and AMIP5 simulations, we have carried out a systematic analysis of biases in total precipitation and its convective and large-scale components over the south Asian region. We have used 23 years (1983–2005) of data, and have computed model biases with respect to the PERSIANN-CDR precipitation (with convective/large-scale ratio derived from TRMM 3A12). A clustering algorithm was applied on the total, convective, and large-scale precipitation biases seen in CMIP5 models to group them based on the degree of similarity in the global bias patterns. Subsequently, AMIP5 models were analyzed to conclude if the biases were primarily due to the atmospheric component or due to the oceanic component of individual models. Our analysis shows that the set of individual models falling in a given group is somewhat sensitive to the variable (total/convective/large-scale precipitation) used for clustering. Over the south Asian region, some of the convective and large-scale precipitation biases are common across groups, emphasizing that although on a global scale the bias patterns may be sufficiently different to cluster the models into different groups, regionally, it may not be true. In general, models tend to overestimate the convective component and underestimate the large-scale component over the south Asian region, although with spatially varying magnitudes depending on the model group. We find that the convective precipitation biases are largely governed by the closure and trigger assumptions used in the convection parameterization schemes used in these models, and to a lesser extent on details of the individual cloud models. Using two different methods: (i) clustering, (ii) comparing the bias patterns of models from CMIP5 with their AMIP5 counterparts, we find that, in general, the atmospheric component (and not the oceanic component through biases in SSTs and atmosphere-ocean feedbacks) plays a major role in deciding the convective and large-scale precipitation biases. However, the oceanic component has been found important for one of the convective groups in deciding the convective precipitation biases (over the maritime continent).

Wind–Mixed Layer–SST Feedbacks in a Tropical Air–Sea Coupled System: Application to the Atlantic

Abstract The ocean–atmosphere feedback associated with the thermodynamic coupling among wind speed, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST), called the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback, contributes to the cross-equatorial SST gradient over the tropical oceans. By conducting an eigenanalyses of simple linear air–sea coupled models, it is shown that two additional feedback processes are present when the variable oceanic mixed layer depth (MLD) is considered. The horizontal structures of the leading modes are similar to the WES mode, which shows a meridional dipole in the SST anomalies straddling the equator with cross-equatorial wind anomalies that represent the weakening/strengthening of the trade winds over the warm/cool SST anomalies. The coupling of the variable MLD with winds and SST more than doubles the growth rate of the WES mode and enhances the equatorward propagation of the coupled disturbances. The identified feedbacks operate as follows: The weaker winds associated with warm SST anomalies shoal the mixed layer through suppressed turbulent mixing, which causes the mixed layer to be more sensitive to the climatological shortwave radiation and amplifies the initial positive SST anomalies. Likewise, deepening of the mixed layer due to stronger winds acts to maintain the negative SST anomaly on the other side of the dipole. The MLD anomalies can also be generated by the buoyancy flux anomaly related to the wind-induced latent heat flux anomaly. The antiphase relationship between the SST and MLD anomalies seen in the simple model bears some resemblance to that which is observed in the observations and a state-of-the-art coupled model during the Atlantic meridional mode.

A review of ENSO theories

Abstract The El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrence can be usually explained by two views of (i) a self-sustained oscillatory mode and (ii) a stable mode interacting with high-frequency forcing such as westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation events. The positive ocean–atmosphere feedback in the tropical Pacific hypothesized by Bjerknes leads the ENSO event to a mature phase. After ENSO event matures, negative feedbacks are needed to cease the ENSO anomaly growth. Four negative feedbacks have been proposed: (i) reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, (ii) a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, (iii) western-Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves and (iv) anomalous zonal advections and wave reflection at the ocean eastern boundary. These four ENSO mechanisms are respectively called the delayed oscillator, the recharge–discharge oscillator, the western-Pacific oscillator and the advective–reflective oscillator. The unified oscillator is developed by including all ENSO mechanisms, i.e. all four ENSO oscillators are special cases of the unified oscillator. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere interaction can also induce coupled slow westward- and eastward-propagating modes. An advantage of the coupled slow modes is that they can be used to explain the propagating property of interannual anomalies, whereas the oscillatory modes produce a standing oscillation. The research community has recently paid attention to different types of ENSO events by focusing on the central-Pacific El Niño. All of the ENSO mechanisms may work for the central-Pacific El Niño events, with an addition that the central-Pacific El Niño may be related to forcing or processes in the extra-tropical Pacific.

Orbital modulation of ENSO seasonal phase locking

Modern El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are characterized by their phase locking of variability to the seasonal cycle and tend to peak at the end of calendar year. Here, we show that in an idealized NCAR-CCSM3 simulation of the climate of the last 300,000 years, ENSO seasonal phase locking is shifted periodically following the precessional forcing: ENSO tends to peak in boreal winter when perihelion is near vernal equinox, but to peak in boreal summer when perihelion lies in between autumnal equinox and winter solstice. The mechanism for the change of ENSO’s phase locking is proposed to be caused by the change of seasonality of the growth rate, or the intensity of ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, of ENSO. It is found that the December peak of ‘winter ENSO’ is caused by the continuous growth of ENSO anomaly from June to November, while the May–June peak of ‘summer ENSO’ appears to be caused jointly by the seasonal shift of higher growth rate into spring and stronger stochastic noise towards the first half of the year. Furthermore, the change of the seasonal cycle of feedbacks is contributed predominantly by that of the thermodynamic damping. The summer peak of ENSO is proposed to be caused by the following mechanism. A perihelion in the late fall to early winter leads to a cooling of the surface eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) due to reduced insolation in spring. This cooling, reinforced by an oceanic process, reduces the latent heat flux damping in spring, and therefore favors the growth of the eastern Pacific-like ENSO (as opposed to the central Pacific-like ENSO). This EEP cooling is also likely to generate more effective short wave-cloud-SST feedback and, in turn, increased instability. Ultimately, the weakened thermodynamic damping in spring, combined with relatively intensive stochastic forcing, benefits the subsequent summer peak of ENSO.

TRIASSIC CARBONATE AND EVAPORITE SEDIMENTATION IN THE IONIAN ZONE (WESTERN GREECE): PALAEOGEOGRAPHIC AND PALAEOCLIMATIC IMPLICATION

The Triassic is considered a crucial interval because during that time huge areas in our planet suffered an intense, long lasting, period of aridity, which favored the formation of worldwide evaporitic bodies. During the Triassic, great volumes of evaporites were formed in the Ionian basin (Western Greece). On the surface chaotically textured gypsum, surrounded by dolomitic breccias of solution-collapse origin, appears. Sedimentological and diagenetical data proposed that these salt bodies were formed in an intertidal to supratidal environment. Although halite suggests precipitation under long-term arid conditions, clay film intercalations reveal intervals of short term humid conditions. During arid periods sabkhas prevailed and brines were of marine origin. Instead, during humid intervals brines were modified by meteoric water and stormy episodes could be responsible for the transportation of clay-sized material, from the low relief surrounding terrains, into the evaporative basin. Death and burial of cyanobactehal population during storm events could be responsible for the enrichment of clayey layers in carbonaceous material. The co-existence of halite and clays in the Ionian evaporitic sequence imposes a complicated climate, possibly periodically and seasonally controlled. The impact of the precession of the equinoxes plus the palaeogeographical position dominates the local climate. The insolation over the Triassic Ionian basin and nearby sea and land areas is a crucial factor. Climate responses to gradual insolation forcing with an ocean land atmosphere feedback mechanism. The desert / monsoonal dominated climatic model seems to be most proper for the explanation of the existing lithologigal record.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of the Upper-Ocean Heat Content in the Western North Pacific and Its Relationship to Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability

Three-dimensional oceanic thermal structures and variability in the western North Pacific (NP) are examined on the interannual to decadal time scales and their relationship to oceanic and atmospheric variability is discussed by analyzing observation and reanalysis data for 45 years (1964–2008), which is much longer than the satellite-altimetry period. It is shown that the meridional shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) is associated with the overall cooling/warming over the KE and SAFZ region (KE–SAFZ mode). It appears, however, that changes in KE strength induce different signs of thermal anomalies to the south and north of the KE, not extended to the SAFZ (KE mode), possibly contributing to noncoherent variability between the KE and SAFZ. Thus, the KE and SAFZ are dependent on each other in the context of the KE–SAFZ mode, while the KE is independent of the SAFZ in terms of the KE mode. This intricate relationship is associated with different linkages to atmospheric variability; the KE–SAFZ mode exhibits a relatively fast response to the large-scale wind stress curl forcing in the NP, whereas the KE mode is related to a delayed response to the atmospheric forcing via jet-trapped baroclinic Rossby wave propagation. It is suggested that further knowledge of the underlying mechanisms of the two modes would contribute to understanding ocean–atmosphere feedback as well as potential predictability over the western boundary current region in the NP.

Difference between the North Atlantic and Pacific meridional overturning circulation in response to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. The role of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in maintaining the large-scale overturning circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific is investigated using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model. For the present day with a realistic topography, model simulation shows a strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) but a near absence of the Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC), which are in good agreement with the present observations. In contrast, the simulation without the TP depicts a collapsed AMOC and a strong PMOC that dominates deep-water formation. The switch in deep-water formation between the two basins results from changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and atmosphere–ocean feedback over the Atlantic and Pacific. The intensified westerly winds and increased freshwater flux over the North Atlantic cause an initial slowdown of the AMOC, while the weakened East Asian monsoon circulation and associated decreased freshwater flux over the North Pacific give rise to the initial intensification of the PMOC. The further decreased heat flux and the associated increase in sea-ice fraction promote the final AMOC collapse over the Atlantic, while the further increased heat flux leads to the final PMOC establishment over the Pacific. Although the simulations were performed in a cold world, it still importantly implicates that the uplift of the TP alone could have been a potential driver for the reorganization of PMOC–AMOC between the late Eocene and early Oligocene.

Eastern Pacific ITCZ Dipole and ENSO Diversity

Abstract The eastern tropical Pacific features strong climatic asymmetry across the equator, with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) displaced north of the equator most of time. In February–April (FMA), the seasonal warming in the Southern Hemisphere and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere weaken the climatic asymmetry, and a double ITCZ appears with a zonal rainband on either side of the equator. Results from an analysis of precipitation variability reveal that the relative strength between the northern and southern ITCZ varies from one year to another and this meridional seesaw results from ocean–atmosphere coupling. Surprisingly this meridional seesaw is triggered by an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of moderate amplitudes. Although ENSO is originally symmetric about the equator, the asymmetry in the mean climate in the preceding season introduces asymmetric perturbations, which are then preferentially amplified by coupled ocean–atmosphere feedback in FMA when deep convection is sensitive to small changes in cross-equatorial gradient of sea surface temperature. This study shows that moderate ENSO follows a distinct decay trajectory in FMA and southeasterly cross-equatorial wind anomalies cause moderate El Niño to dissipate rapidly as southeasterly cross-equatorial wind anomalies intensify ocean upwelling south of the equator. In contrast, extreme El Niño remains strong through FMA as enhanced deep convection causes westerly wind anomalies to intrude and suppress ocean upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific.