Occurrence Of Shock Research Articles

Female-Specific Association of Plasma N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide With Organ Dysfunction and Prognosis in Sepsis: A Retrospective Study.

The plasma level of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide is regulated by sex hormones. It has been controversial whether N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide is a prognosis marker for sepsis. The aim of this study is to examine the sex-dependent association of plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide with organ dysfunction and mortality of sepsis patients. In this retrospective study, the association between plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide concentration on the day of sepsis diagnosis and the degree of organ dysfunction, occurrence of septic shock, or 30-day mortality in both male and female patients was analyzed. This study was conducted in the Sepsis Laboratory at the Huaihe Hospital of Henan University in China. Diagnoses of sepsis, and septic shock, were based on the recently revised criteria (Sepsis 3.0). All sepsis patients (517) hospitalized in the respiratory ICU of the Huaihe Hospital from June 2016 to December 2019 were enrolled in this study. None. No significant difference was found in the age, occurrence rate of septic shock, 30-day mortality, or degree of organ dysfunction between male and female patients. Median concentration of plasma N-terminal pro-brain Natriuretic peptide was higher by 93.48% in female than male patients. A significant association was found between N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and septic shock or 30-day mortality in female, but not in male patients of community- or hospital-acquired sepsis. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels correlated to functional deficiencies of the cardiac and nervous systems, only in female patients. The plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level is a female-specific prognosis indicator of septic shock and mortality.

Interplanetary Shock Candidates Observed at Venus’s Orbit

Abstract The measurements from the Venus Express spacecraft are analyzed for the basic properties of fast forward interplanetary shocks at Venus’s orbit (∼0.72 au). A total of 143 fast forward interplanetary shock candidates during 2006–2014 are identified. The shock angle ΘBn, defined as the angle between the shock normal and the upstream magnetic field, and the magnetic compression ratio r B, defined as the ratio of the magnetic field strength downstream to that upstream, of these shocks are determined based on the magnetic coplanarity method. The shock occurrence at Venus shows a correlated variation with the solar activity level measured by the number of sunspots, while the shock angle and magnetic compression ratio do not show such a correspondence. The shock angle spreads almost uniformly between 10° and 80° with its mean value at about 45°, and the magnetic compression ratio shows a unimodal distribution between 1.0 and 4.5 with a mean value of 2.1. In addition, we also analyze the properties of fast forward shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We found that interplanetary shocks with and without detected ICMEs showed no significant differences in terms of the shock strength and the shock angle. Further comparison with previous observational results at 1 au shows that fast forward shocks at 1 au are generally weaker than those at 0.72 au, and the shock angle ΘBn is more perpendicular at 1 au.

Survival After Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Shocks

BackgroundThere are conflicting data on the impact of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shocks on subsequent mortality. ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to determine whether the arrhythmic substrate leading to ICD therapy or the therapy itself increases mortality. MethodsThe study cohort included 5,516 ICD recipients who were enrolled in 5 landmark ICD trials (MADIT-II, MADIT-RISK, MADIT-CRT, MADIT-RIT, RAID). The authors evaluated the association of device therapy with subsequent mortality in 4 separate time-dependent models: model I, type of ICD therapy; model II, type of arrhythmia for which ICD therapy was delivered; model III, combined assessment of all arrhythmia and therapy types during follow-up; and model IV, incremental risk associated with repeated ICD shocks. ResultsWhen analyzed by the type of ICD therapy (model I), a first appropriate ICD shock was associated with increased risk of subsequent mortality with or without concomitant occurrence of inappropriate shock during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.78 and 2.31; p < 0.001 and p = 0.12), whereas inappropriate shock alone was not associated with mortality risk (HR: 1.23; p = 0.42). Similarly, ICD therapy for ventricular tachycardia (VT) ≥200 beats/min or ventricular fibrillation (VF) (model II) was associated with increased risk of death with or without concomitant therapy for VT <200 beats/min (HRs: 2.25 and 2.62; both p < 0.001), whereas appropriate therapy for VT <200 beats/min or inappropriate therapy (regardless of etiology) did not reach statistical significance (all p > 0.10). Combined assessment of all therapy and arrhythmia types during follow-up (model III) showed that appropriate ICD shocks for VF, shocks for fast VT (≥200 beats/min) without prior antitachycardia pacing (ATP), as well as shocks for fast VT delivered after failed ATP, were associated with the highest risk of subsequent death (HR: all >2.8; p < 0.001). Finally, 2 or more ICD appropriate shocks were not associated with incremental risk to the first appropriate ICD shock (model IV). ConclusionThe combined data from 5 landmark ICD trials suggest that the underlying arrhythmic substrate rather than the ICD therapy is the more important determinant of mortality in ICD recipients.

New Normal in The Era of Pandemic Covid-19 in Forming Responsibility Social Life and Culture of Indonesian Society

This research aims to explain the problems currently understood by the world and directly felt by Indonesian citizens. Covid-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly throughout the world and is becoming a global problem. Even the term New Normal is a topic of conversation around the world. This paper reveals how the New Normal life is happening in Indonesian society. The occurrence of culture shock is one of the social conditions that occur in our society. The study uses a literature review which is a systematic, explicit, and reproducible method for evaluating, evaluating, and synthesizing research works and ideas that have been produced by researchers and researchers. The results of the study show that new events as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic in this community are of course slow and cause pros and cons in the community. Social studies education has an important role in solving problems that occur in society as a reflective inquiry process as a manager in contemporary problems.

Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers could contribute to the gender-related disparities in STEMI outcomes

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, CNCS - UEFISCDI BACKGROUND Women with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have been shown to present higher in-hospital mortality compared to their male counterparts. However, most of these data were obtained in the pre-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or even in the pre-thrombolytic era. PURPOSE We aimed to investigate the contribution of female gender to the occurrence of in-hospital complications in STEMI patients treated by primary PCI. METHODS Data regarding in-hospital outcomes (i.e., mortality, inotropic and diuretic drugs usage, occurrence of cardiogenic shock, cardiac arrest) were evaluated in 848 consecutive patients treated by primary PCI for STEMI. Occurrence of new-onset kidney dysfunction and length of hospital stay were also analysed. The relationship between gender and the occurrence of STEMI-related complications was evaluated. RESULTS Out of the 848 patients included in the study, 254 (29.9%) were women. Compared to their male counterparts, female STEMI patients were older (65.7 ± 11.3 vs. 60.1 ± 11.8 years; p&amp;lt; 0.0001), had more often pre-existing heart failure, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (all p&amp;lt; 0.05), longer symptom onset-to-cardiac catheterization laboratory time intervals (7.9 ± 6.7 vs. 6.4 ± 5.0 h; p&amp;lt; 0.001), and higher Killip class on admission (p = 0.02). Cardiogenic shock, inotropic and diuretic drugs usage, kidney dysfunction, and cardiac arrest occurred more often in female than in male patients (all p&amp;lt; 0.01). The length of hospital stay (p&amp;lt; 0.01) and in-hospital death (RR 1.89 [95%CI 1.43-2.50], p&amp;lt; 0.001) were also higher in female compared to male patients, whereas renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) blockers were used more rarely in female patients (p = 0.01). When corrected for potential confounders, female gender remained an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (p = 0.01). However, when in-hospital RAAS blockers usage was included in the model, female gender was no longer associated with increased in-hospital mortality (p = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Female patients with STEMI continue to display significantly higher in-hospital mortality rates compared to their male peers including in the primary PCI era. The difference in in-hospital mortality between female and male patients with STEMI could be at least partially due to the significantly lower usage of RAAS blockers in women. Increasing in-hospital RAAS blockers usage in female patients with STEMI may improve survival in this high-risk population.

Risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery ectasia presented with st elevation myocardial infarction

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. OnBehalf PHASE-MX Background Coronary artery ectasia (CAE), defined as "a dilatation greater than 1.5 times the diameter of the adjacent normal coronary arteries", is an uncommon finding in patients with acute coronary syndrome with a reported prevalence from 0.3 to 4.9% in different series. Because its low frequency, at present time there is lack of evidence and consensus of treatment strategies in those patients. Purpose To identify differences in risk factors, treatment strategies and cardiovascular outcomes among population with and without CAE presented with STEMI. Methods A retrospective, observational, comparative study was conducted in a tertiary-level cardiovascular center. We included hospitalized patients between 2018 and 2020 diagnosed with STEMI who had received reperfusion treatment within 12 hours of symptom onset. Coronary angiography was performed in the setting of primary PCI or pharmacoinvasive strategy. The primary composite endpoint was the time to first occurrence of either cardiovascular death, cardiogenic shock, recurrent MI or congestive heart failure at 30 days of follow-up according to the presence or absence of coronary artery ectasia. Results We identified 539 patients with a STEMI diagnosis, of those 56 (10.3%) were diagnosed with CAE and 483 without CAE (89.7%). The median age of population was 57.9 (±10.9 SD) with no differences between groups and most of them were male (94.6% vs 85.7%, p 0.08). Among risk factors we identified a lower prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with CAE (14.2% vs 36.4%, p 0.001), no difference was observed in prevalence of hypertension (44.6% vs. 43.4%, p 0.86), obesity (26.7% vs 23.4%, p 0.57), dyslipidemia (26.7% vs 18.8%, p 0.35) or smoking (35.7% vs 45.1%, p 0.17). In angiographic findings of patients diagnosed with CAE the infarction culprit artery had ectasia in 83.9% (n = 47) of the patients. According to the Markis classification, type 1 was the most common type, with the right coronary artery presenting the greatest involvement (72.7%, n= 40), followed by the anterior descending artery (67.2%, n= 37) and finally by circumflex artery (54.5%, n= 30). There were no differences in reperfusion strategies performed between both groups, pharmacoinvasive strategy (43.6% vs 50.6%, p 0.32) or PCI (56.4% VS 49.4%, P 0.12). There was no difference in the primary composite endpoint of MACE over a period of 30 days of follow up (8.93% vs 10.3%, p 0.73) Figure 1. There was also no difference in major or minor bleeding between groups (5.4% vs 3.6%, p 0.78; and 3.5% vs 1.6%, p 0.37). Conclusion CAE is a disease with a higher prevalence in México than reported in other countries. There are no identifiable risk factors in our study that predicts the presence of CAE in patients diagnosed with STEMI. Both reperfusion strategies used (Pharmacoinvasive strategy and primary PCI) could be safe with no differences in cardiovascular outcomes or bleeding at 1 month of follow-up. Abstract Figure.

Efficacy and safety of pharmacoinvasive strategy compared with primary PCI in patients with STEMI presenting to non-PCI hubs: A real world study

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the treatment of choice for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Clinical practice guidelines recommend performing pPCI &amp;lt;120 minutes after the diagnosis of STEMI. Nevertheless, in a real world model this treatment is not always the fastest option. This is mostly due to the transfer delays when patients arrive to non-PCI capable hubs. These delays can decrease the benefits of the PPCI. Regional networks have been created to speed up these times and administer reperfusion therapy as early as possible. The pharmacoinvasive strategy (PIs) consists of the administration of fibrinolytic drugs in the non-pPCI setting followed by the immediate transfer of the patient to a pPCI center. Purpose To compare the efficacy and safety of pharmacoinvasive strategy compared with referral for primary PCI in patients with STEMI presenting to non PCI hubs. Methods A retrospective analysis of the PHASE-MX study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03974581) including patients with STEMI whom initially presented to non-PCI hospitals and underwent either systemic fibrinolysis followed by pharmaco-invasive strategy or were transfer to perform primary PCIc according to the decision made by the doctor in the non-PCI center, the ease of referring the patient and the proximity of the PCI center. The primary composite endpoint included the occurrence of cardiovascular death, cardiogenic shock, recurrent MI or congestive heart failure at 30 days of follow-up. Results A total of 448 patients were included, of whom 273 (60.9%) underwent PIs and 175 (39.0%) were transfered for pPCI. Mean age was 58+-10 years, and most patients (86.8%) were male. No statistically significant differences in risk factors and other clinically meaningful variables were found. There was a 40% reduction in the risk of the primary composite endpoint (HR 0.60 for PIs: 95% CI:0.36-0.99; p = 0.048) for those undergoing PIs compared with pPCI, (Figure 1). Conclusion The pPCI main limitation is the impossibility to use it in the entire population due to its limited geographic availability and the delays involved in the transfer of patients from non-pPCI centers to reference hospitals. Through the PIs patients who arrive at non-PCI hospitals with STEMI and receive thrombolysis and then are redirect to PCI center there was a 40% reduction in the risk of a major endpoint occurring. Abstract Figure 1

Assessing Current Seismic Hazards in Irpinia Forty Years after the 1980 Earthquake: Merging Historical Seismicity and Satellite Data about Recent Ground Movements

Recently, a new strain rate map of Italy and the surrounding areas has been obtained by processing data acquired by the persistent scatterers (PS) of the synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) satellites—ERS and ENVISAT—between 1990 and 2012. This map clearly shows that there is a link between the strain rate and all the shallow earthquakes (less than 15 km deep) that occurred from 1990 to today, with their epicenters being placed only in high strain rate areas (e.g., Emilia plain, NW Tuscany, Central Apennines). However, the map also presents various regions with high strain rates but in which no damaging earthquakes have occurred since 1990. One of these regions is the Apennine sector, formed by Sannio and Irpinia. This area represents one of the most important seismic districts with a well-known and recorded seismicity from Roman times up to the present day. In our study, we merged historical records with new satellite techniques that allow for the precise determination of ground movements, and then derived physical dimensions, such as strain rate. In this way, we verified that in Irpinia, the occurrence of new strong shocks—forty years after one of the strongest known seismic events in the district that occurred on the 23 November 1980, measuring Mw 6.8—is still a realistic possibility. The reason for this is that, from 1990, only areas characterized by high strain rates have hosted significant earthquakes. This picture has been also confirmed by analyzing the historical catalog of events with seismic completeness for magnitude M ≥ 6 over the last four centuries. It is easy to see that strong seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 6 generally occurred at a relatively short time distance between one another, with a period of 200 years without strong earthquakes between the years 1732 and 1930. This aspect must be considered as very important from various points of view, particularly for civil protection plans, as well as civil engineering and urban planning development.

Toward a broader understanding of career shocks: Exploring interdisciplinary connections with research on job search, human resource management, entrepreneurship, and diversity

Career shocks have become an increasingly important part of current careers scholarship. In this article, we focus on the role of career shocks in career choice, career development, and career adaptation by exploring interdisciplinary connections with the domains of: (1) job search, (2) human resource management, (3) entrepreneurship, and (4) diversity. Specifically, we argue that a self-regulated job search process is likely often triggered by a career shock, yet could also trigger career shocks in its own right. We also note that employees' perceptions of the HR practices in their company are likely influenced by career shocks, and that the chance of employees to return to their employer in the future (i.e., boomerang employment) is affected by the occurrence of positive or negative shocks. Furthermore, there are ample opportunities to study how career shocks may trigger transitions between paid employment and entrepreneurship, and the role of identity and emotions in such processes. Finally, we argue that career shocks may instigate changes in the salience of social identity or even constitute threats to social identity, thereby reflecting on how career shocks may differentially impact people belonging to different social groups. We hope that our article, in the spirit of this JVB 50-year anniversary issue's aims, will inspire scholars both within and outside of the field of career studies to better understand how career shocks may impact the way in which people work and develop their careers.

Challenges to Reporting the Global Trends in the Epidemiology of ICU-Treated Sepsis and Septic Shock

It is widely believed that the epidemiology of sepsis and septic shock treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) is changing. However, quantifying changes in occurrence and outcomes of ICU-treated sepsis and septic shock are challenged by a number of factors related to study designs as well as varied local resource availability and practices. The authors conducted a structured literature review to examine contemporary studies reporting trends in the prevalence, incidence and case-fatality rates of ICU-treated sepsis and septic shock around the world and further attempted to extrapolate the recent epidemiological trends. During 2015–2020, 13 observational studies with heterogenous methodologies were published from predominantly high-income countries that examined selected cohorts with ICU-treated sepsis, sepsis with end-organ failure (previously known as severe sepsis) and septic shock. The prevalence of sepsis and sepsis-related diagnoses ranged widely from 4.7–42.2% of ICU admissions. The population incidence varied widely between 88 and 370 cases per 100,000 for sepsis and 19 and 79 cases per 100,000 for septic shock. Mean case-fatality rates (deaths per number of cases, %) reported primarily as in-hospital deaths reduced from approximately 40–50% reported in previous years, to 30–40% in the past 5 years. There was a lack of recent studies specifically examining mortality at the population level. Contemporary studies have observed wide variation in prevalence and incidence of sepsis and septic shock along with reports of static or decreasing case-fatality rates, but we are not able to make generalised commentary on global trends from the results of existing studies. Further data from ICUs in low-income and middle-income countries is needed, and well-designed, consistent population-based studies are required in order to establish whether the burden of sepsis and septic shock is changing.

Shock waves and golden shores: the asymmetric interaction between gold prices and the stock market

ABSTRACT Gold is often considered a safe haven asset providing negative return correlation with the stock market in times of distress, while in more calm periods the correlation is close to zero. We study the dynamic inter-linkage of gold prices and the stock market. Specifically, we model the log-prices of gold and a stock index as jump-diffusive processes, with the jumps arriving with mutually exciting intensities. Hence, the occurrence of negative shocks to the stock index spill over into higher probabilities of positive shocks to the gold price and vice versa. For the empirical analysis, we consider daily prices on gold and the SPX index. Utilizing that the model's moment conditions are computed efficiently in closed form, we use the generalized method of moments to estimate the model parameters. We document the existence of cross-excitation between the stock index and gold prices, with the channel from the stock index to gold prices being the most pronounced. Moreover, we find that gold behaves as a safe haven asset for the stock index for around 20 days following a market crash. Finally, we study the power of the proposed model to predict future price jumps and benchmark the performance against more classical models.

On the evolution of acceleration discontinuities in van der Waals dusty magnetogasdynamics

Abstract The article presents the study of the evolutionary behavior of plane and cylindrically symmetric acceleration discontinuities along the characteristic path under the effect of dust particles in a non-ideal magnetogasdynamic flow. Implications regarding the propagation of disturbances in planar and cylindrically symmetric flows have been shown. Using the characteristics of the governing quasilinear system as a reference coordinate system, we transform the fundamental equations and find the solution. It is explored how the dust particles, along with the nonideal parameter, will influence the steepening or flattening of the propagating waves in magnetic and nonmagnetic cases. The transport equation leading to the evolution of acceleration discontinuities is determined, which provides the relation for the occurrence of shock. The impact of non-idealness of the gas and dust on the evolutionary process of propagating waves for the magnetic and nonmagnetic cases are discussed. The comparison between the flow patterns and distortion of the propagating waves for planar and cylindrically symmetric flows is demonstrated under the various parameter effects.

Agricultural households’ adaptation to weather shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for land-use change and deforestation

AbstractAgriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is regularly threatened by the occurrence of weather shocks. We wonder whether the way farmers respond to shocks can affect land use and induce deforestation. Reviewing the existing literature, we found that this question has only been marginally studied. Drawing from the adaptation and land-use change literatures, we then expose the mechanisms through which weather shocks can push farmers to induce land-use change, or conversely to foster conservation. As farmers cope with shocks, their responses can cause degradations in ecosystems which could, in the long term, encourage deforestation and land-use change. To prepare for the next growing season, or adapt to climate variability and risk in the longer term, farmers also make structural adjustments in their farm and land-use decisions, which may lead to changes in land holding. They also resort to adaptation strategies that can indirectly affect land-use decisions by affecting households’ resources (labor, income).

Innovation Techniques Analisys in Macroeconomy on Ratio of Financial Islamic Bank

This study aims to investigate macro-economic variables on the financial ratios of Islamic banks in Indonesia, using simultaneous impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analisys. The object in the sample research is one of the Islamic banks in Indonesia, namely the bank muamalah. The data used in this study consists of 4 macroeconomic variables of Indonesia and 4 variable ratio of Islamic banks in Indonesia. From the research that has been done macro economic variable response is still very volatile in the first month until month 10, positive and negative response (up and down) since the occurrence of shock or shock to the variable banking sector. Next, from the 9th to the 10th month the fluctuations begin to shrink meaning that the macroeconomic variables are no longer very volatile like the previous period. By using Impulse Response (ROA) in the results that in the first period of variable banking ROA ratio is strongly influenced by FDR shock (12.6%) while the period of the period of shock ROA and other variables still not give influence.

2D numerical modeling for plasma-assisted CO2 pooling in supersonic nozzles: importance of a proper nozzle contour design

Plasma assisted CO2 dissociation has recently been the topic of many studies. The production of chemical fuels from environmentally unfriendly CO2 through supersonic nozzles is one of the most prominent approaches under investigation. However, the experiments show that the theoretical conversion rates are far away from being achieved. In this study, two-dimensional fully coupled cases are investigated. This brings insights about how the CO2 dissociation can be improved; mainly by a correct design of nozzles. The proper shape of a nozzle is a fundamental aspect to be taken into account numerically and in experiments to avoid undesirable phenomena such as the occurrence of shocks. The proper design of the nozzle shape leads to a shock-free flow being uniform at the nozzle outlet. A high degree of cooling can be achieved in a shock-free nozzle. Moreover it is shown that there is no optimal value for Mach number provided that the nozzles are sized properly. If the sizing is done correctly, it is found that higher Mach numbers lead to higher degree of non-equilibrium and thereby to higher dissociation rate. The sizing of the nozzle to maximize the departure from equilibrium in the nozzle is the final key of an efficient CO2 dissociation. Finally, the results are compared with those of a semi-analytical method to conclude that if the nozzle is conceived in a proper way, simpler approaches can also give satisfactory results.

An Energy-Dependent Earthquake Moment–Frequency Distribution

ABSTRACTThe magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD) of many earthquake catalogs is well described by the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) law or its tapered version (TGR). This distribution is usually extrapolated to any subsets of the space–time window covered by the catalog. However, some empirical observations and logical thoughts may raise doubts about the validity of this extrapolation. For example, according to the elastic rebound theory, we may assert that the probability of a strong shock nucleating within a short-time interval in a small area A just ruptured by another strong event should be lower than that expected by GR (or TGR): a lot of energy has already been released, and it takes time to recover to the previous state. Here, we put forward a space–time modification of the TGR, named energy-dependent TGR (TGRE) in which the corner seismic moment becomes a time-varying energy function depending on (1) the conceivable strongest shock that may nucleate in A; (2) the time elapsed since the last strong earthquake that reset the elastic energy in A to a residual value; and (3) the rate of the energy recovery, linked to the recurrence time of the fault(s) involved. The model also verifies an invariance condition: for large space–time windows, the occurrence of a strong shock does not affect significantly the whole elastic energy available, that is, the TGRE becomes the TGR. The model is simple and rooted in clearly stated assumptions. To evaluate its reliability and applicability, we apply it to the 1992 Landers sequence. As expected by TGRE, we find that the MFD close to the fault system interested by the mainshock (Mw 7.3) differs from that of earthquakes off-fault, showing a lower corner magnitude. We speculate that TGRE may be profitably used in operational earthquake forecasting and that it explains the empirical observation that the strongest aftershocks nucleate always outside the mainshock fault.

Hort and long-run response of economic growth to oil prices in algeria: A combined cointegration approach

Oil prices had experienced sharp fluctuations during the last decades. A vast literature has been devoted to analyzing the macroeconomic effects of oil prices. This paper aims to contribute to this research field, by examining the impact of oil prices on economic growth in Algeria, for the period 1976–2019. The novelty of the study is that it employs the combined cointegration technique, to test the presence of long-run relationship between oil prices and economic growth. The empirical analysis revealed that there was long-run cointegrating relationship between the two variables. Moreover, the different estimators indicated that oil prices positively impacted the economic growth in the long-run while the error correction model supports the presence of negative and limited short-run effects, that disappeared after about one year and a half from the occurrence of the oil shock.

Predictive factors of inappropriate therapies in subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillators

The subcutaneous implantable cardioverter defibrillator (S-ICD) has been considered as a comparable alternative to transvenous ICD in a wide array of patients (pts) without pacing indication. Recent data have reported high rates of inappropriate (inap) therapies with S-ICD, mostly due to T wave or noise oversensing. Our aim was to assess the predictive factors of inap therapies over a mid-term follow-up (FU) period after SICD implantation. All pts implanted with an S-ICD and a FU above 6 months were included in a cross-sectional monocentric study. Data from preoperative screening with a thorough ECG study (amplitude of QRS complex, T wave and QRS:T ratio in leads I, II and III) has been collected. Pts were followed by remote monitoring. One hundred and twenty-four pts (50 ± 14 years old, male 84%) were included. Indications were: primary 73% and secondary prevention 27% (ischemic cardiopathy 39%; hypertrophic 8%; dilated 36%; channelopathy 2%). During a mean FU of 25 ± 16 months, 29 pts (23%) experienced at least one therapy: 15 pts with appropriate (12%) and 15 pts with inap shocks (12%). A total of 22 inap shocks have been observed after a mean FU period of 15 ± 18 months (1.5 ± 1 inap shock per pt, several shocks for 4 pts). Causes were: supraventricular arrhythmias (33%), T wave (20%) and noise (53%) oversensing. The number of eligible vectors during preoperative screening was correlated with the occurrence of inap shocks (−0.23; P < 0.05). ECG criteria measured in lead I were significantly correlated with inap therapies: QRS and T wave amplitude, respectively −0.23 and 0.3 (P < 0.01), and the QRS:T ratio in lead I (−0.34; P < 0.01). Of note, the untreated events related to T wave or noise oversensing during the FU were correlated with inap shocks (0.32; P < 0.01) (Fig. 1). Inap therapies remain frequent with S-ICD. Preoperative screening (number of eligible vectors) and ECG data may be taken into consideration to identify patients at high risk for inap shocks.

Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic

This paper proposes and estimates a new Two-Sector One-Agent model that features large shocks. The resulting medium-scale New Keynesian model includes the standard real and nominal frictions used in the empirical literature and allows for heterogeneous COVID-19 pandemic exposure across sectors. We solve the model nonlinearly and we propose a new nonlinear, non-Gaussian filter designed to handle large pandemic shocks to make inference feasible after 2020. Monte Carlo experiments show that it correctly identifies the source and time location of shocks with a massively reduced running time, making the estimation of macro-models with disaster shocks feasible. The estimation is carried out using the Sequential Monte Carlo sampler recently proposed by Herbst and Schorfheide (2014).Our empirical results show that the pandemic-induced economic downturn can be reconciled with a combination of large demand and supply shocks. More precisely, starting from the second quarter of 2020, the model detects the occurrence of a large negative demand shock in consuming all kinds of goods, together with a large negative demand shock in consuming contact-intensive products. On the supply side, our proposed method detects a large labor supply shock to the general sector and a large labor productivity shock in the pandemic-sensitive sector.

A comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of the current earthquake activity in different parts of the Frakull-Durrës fault zone, Albania

This study presents a detailed spatiotemporal analysis for the Frakull-Durrës (F-D) fault zone at the beginning of 2020. For this purpose, the most frequently used statistical seismicity parameters such as magnitude completeness, Mc-value, Gutenberg-Richter b-value, recurrence times, annual probabilities and standard normal deviate, Z-value, were mapped. The F-D fault zone was divided into two seismogenic subregions, and Mc-value was taken as 2.5 for both the south and north parts. The b-value was estimated as 0.83 ± 0.06 for the south part and 0.85 ± 0.06 for the north part. b-values for both zones are smaller than 1.0 and these values may be considered to be a larger stress accumulation to build up over time and to be released by the next possible earthquakes. Clear decreasing trends were observed in time variations of b-values before the occurrences of several strong main shocks. Analyses of annual probabilities and recurrence times suggest that the study region has an intermediate/long-term earthquake hazard in comparison to occurrences of strong/destructive earthquakes in the short term. Some anomaly regions of a small b-value and a large Z-value were found along the F-D fault zone at the beginning of 2020: i) among Lushnje-Tirana-Durrës including the middle part of the F-D fault zone, ii) in and around Lezha including the north end of the F-D fault zone. Thus, the combination of regions with the lowest b-value and largest Z-value may supply preliminary results for earthquake hazard, and these regions may be considered to be the most likely regions for future strong/large earthquakes in the F-D fault zone.