Occurrence Data Research Articles

A spatial inventory of freshwater macroinvertebrate occurrences in the Guineo-Congolian biodiversity hotspot

The Guineo-Congolian region, extending from Guinea in West Africa to the central part of Africa, is considered an important biodiversity hotspot in the Afrotropics. Aside from the underreporting and underestimation of freshwater ecosystems, the challenges regarding incorrect coordinates and taxonomical inaccuracies in freshwater species occurrence data pose another major hurdle that may hinder freshwater conservation efforts in the hotspot. Hence, for any biogeographic analysis, species distribution modelling or conservation initiative, it is crucial to use datasets that are, to the largest possible extent, free of spatial and taxonomic errors. We present the final output of 8,809 occurrences consisting of 4 phyla, eight classes, 32 orders, and 1,104 species. We also added the Hydrography90m stream network attributes to the macroinvertebrate occurrence records, such that the data spans across 2,890 sub-catchments and Strahler stream orders 1–12. These records are considered valid and can be used for biogeographic analysis of freshwater macroinvertebrates in this important yet understudied freshwater biodiversity hotspot.

Loss of habitat suitability and distribution range of the endangered Japanese giant salamander under climate change

Giant salamanders are the world’s largest amphibians and keystone predators in riverine ecosystems where they face global declines. Identifying environmental variables influencing their distribution is, therefore, an essential step for their conservation. This study aims to assess the current habitat suitability and distribution of the Japanese giant salamander (Andrias japonicus) and to predict changes under future climate scenarios. We used species distribution models (SDMs) over a 282,916 km² area, including 477 high-resolution occurrence data of giant salamanders and seven remote-sensing environmental predictors (climatic, topographic and land use). We projected the prediction maps, identified the most contributing variables and calculated the shifts of suitable areas for three periods (2050, 2070 and 2090) under projected climatic conditions. Climatic variables highly contributed to the distribution of giant salamanders (76% of the total), with preferences for areas with moderate precipitations during cold and wet seasons and mild summer temperatures. A moderately steep surrounding environment was favourable for salamanders, whereas the land-use variables had less influence. Future climate predictions indicate a major decrease of suitable areas. Altogether, our results highlight the habitat preferences of giant salamanders at a broad scale and the negative impact of climate change on future suitable areas. These findings provide important steps for upcoming conservation actions for this threatened species in delineating favourable distribution ranges and priority areas that should be directly affected by climate change. Finally, they emphasise the need for new research at a fine scale on disturbances to the aquatic habitat to enhance the conservation of giant salamanders. We used a species distribution model (MaxEnt), high-resolution occurrence data and remote sensing data (climatic, topographic and land use) to identify suitable habitats for the Japanese giant salamander in Japan. The most suitable environments for the Japanese giant salamander are located both within and beyond its current distribution range, with the ‘Japanese Alps’ forming an impassable natural barrier. Among the variables studied, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the most important environmental predictors of the species’ distribution. Climate change is expected to severely reduce the potential suitable geographical areas for the Japanese giant salamander in the future. The present work calls for new surveys based on the projected maps to improve the mapping of salamander distribution and to focus on ecological features and threats at the aquatic habitat level to understand the risks to their populations.

Predicting the habitat suitability of Ilex verticillata (Aquifoliaceae) in China with field-test validations.

The cut branches of Ilex verticillata are highly ornamental and have high economic value. Since its introduction to China, it has received widespread attention. In the context of climate change today, ensuring its promotion and sustainable production in China is of great significance. In this study we evaluated the habitat suitability of the species using MaxEnt, combined with climate and soil variables, to assess the impact of climate change on its potential suitable habitat. We used 121 I. verticillata occurrence data and validated the model prediction using extensive field testing (12 test sites located in areas from 23.19° N to 42.91° N and 76.17° E to 125.14° E). The habitat suitability model (AUC = 0.854) performed well. Among them, three precipitation variables and one temperature variable were the main factors determining the distribution of I. verticillata in China. Field trial tests and model predictions of the suitability of I. verticillata were consistent, indicating that our model predictions are biologically meaningful and economically valuable. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate change scenario, the high and medium suitable habitats for this species will be reduced in the future climate. This study helps to better understand the impact of climate change on I. verticillata and provides suggestions for the introduction and cultivation areas and protection of this species in China.

Global range extension of bioclimatic zone of Bruguiera hainesii C.G.Rogers 1919 (Rhizophoraceae)

Bruguiera hainesii is a rare mangrove species with limited populations worldwide, but there is lack of detailed knowledge about its population size and distribution in Vietnam. Its regeneration capacity is notably low, raising concerns about its long-term survival. This study aims to model the bioclimatic niche of B. hainesii to identify potential ecological regions in Vietnam suitable for its conservation and survival under current and future climate scenarios. Occurrence data were collected from the global GBIF database and recent field surveys in Vietnam conducted during 2023–2024. The Maxent model was used to predict bioclimatic suitability, with projections extended to future climate scenarios using ACCESS-CM2 under SSP2-4.5 (medium-emission scenario) for 2080–2100. The study identified Vietnam as a highly suitable region for B. hainesii despite its small population size. Projections indicate a potential expansion of ideal habitats under future climate conditions, highlighting the species' adaptability. The findings provide valuable insights into the conservation of B. hainesii, emphasising the importance of preserving existing populations and managing suitable habitats to ensure the species' long-term survival and regeneration. This research also underscores the role of bioclimatic niche modelling in guiding conservation strategies for endangered mangroves.

Integrating adult occurrence and reproduction data to identify conservation measures for amphibians.

Monitoring programs are pivotal to establishing sound management. Due to economic, logistic, and time limitations, monitoring programs often overlook differences among life-history stages. However, species occurrence does not necessarily mean population viability, and it is unclear to what extent monitoring programs that do not consider separately adult presence and reproduction provide effective management indications. Unfortunately, collecting data on certain life stages requires high sampling effort, leading to a trade-off between model reliability and resources needed for monitoring. We collected data on presence and reproduction of amphibians by monitoring 207 waterbodies in Lombardy (northern Italy) in 2017-2022. We then used multistate occupancy models to test whether certain environmental features, namely, pond area, hydroperiod, forest cover, shade, aquatic vegetation, and predators' presence, differentially affected adult occurrence and breeding probabilities of multiple amphibian species. To assess optimal sampling efforts, we modeled the detection probabilities of adults and reproduction across multiple species. Finally, we identified the optimal monitoring strategy under different scenarios of resource availability, comparing adult-only monitoring versus joint assessment of the occurrence of adults and reproduction. In many cases, the main drivers of adult occurrence and reproduction did not coincide because most investigated ecological variables affected one life stage or the other. Forest area, for instance, increased occurrence probabilities of adults of the endemic Rana latastei but showed no effect on their reproduction probabilities. Quantitative estimates of the sampling effort showed that occurrence of adults was easier to spot in 4 out of 7 species. Multicriteria decision analyses showed that when resources were scarce, monitoring adults was the optimal strategy for those 4 species. Conversely, with more resources, monitoring both adults and reproduction emerged as the best strategy for all the considered species. Integrated monitoring of adults and reproduction is essential to comprehensively identify effective conservation measures for amphibians.

Spatial joint hazard assessment of landslide susceptibility and intensity within a single framework: Environmental insights from the Wenchuan earthquake.

To comprehensively assess regional landslide hazards, we propose a geospatial approach that jointly evaluates both the probability of occurrence (susceptibility) and potential destructive power (intensity) within a single framework, overcoming the limitations of previous studies that treated these two disaster scenarios independently. Focusing on the largest landslide event triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake in China, we collected landslide occurrence and count data at the slope unit level, alongside 18 environmental factors, including seismic data. To enable this multi-hazard single-framework evaluation, we employed two Bayesian spatial joint regressions: the spatial shared component model (SSCM) and the spatial shared hyperparameter model (SSHM). This joint assessment focuses on three key components: identifying shared influencing factors, capturing shared spatial autocorrelated random effects, and jointly predicting susceptibility and intensity maps. Additionally, we enhanced the traditional absolute intensity index into the relative intensity by accounting for slope unit size. Both Bayesian SSCM and SSHM, incorporating multiple environmental drivers (seismic, topographical, geological, hydrological, and human activities), successfully evaluated landslide susceptibility and intensity under a single analytical frame. SSHM outperformed SSCM in terms of model fit and predictive accuracy, as revealed by cross-validation. While SSCM overfitted the landslide distribution of spatial autocorrelated random effect, SSHM provided a smoother, more spatially diverse representation. Both models consistently identified slope as the shared key factor influencing susceptibility and intensity, with the top four additional environmental factors varying slightly but all related to seismic activity. The concurrent susceptibility and absolute intensity maps produced by both models exhibited similar patterns, while relative intensity mapping identified new high-hazard areas within smaller slope units that were previously overlooked by susceptibility and absolute intensity. We established a Bayesian-based single modeling framework for joint hazard assessment and prediction of regional susceptibility and intensity, providing a cutting-edge geospatial paradigm for multi-objective hazard assessment in global environmental disaster management.

Prioritising relevant polychlorinated naphthalene (PCN) congeners for human dietary exposure studies.

Following a decline in the production and use of polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) and the restrictions introduced by the Stockholm Convention, dietary intake represents the most significant pathway of human exposure to these dioxin-like contaminants. PCNs occur ubiquitously in foods, originating from the legacy of historical production that is now globally redistributed, as well as from ongoing industrial and domestic combustion sources which have a stronger influence on occurrence patterns in countries where they were not produced. Recent studies have benefited from a wider set of available PCN reference standards, enabling more accurate reporting of a diverse range of congeners. Combining the available information on food occurrence with relative potency (REP) data, an initial selection of twenty PCN congeners are presented here for monitoring of foodstuffs. The selection is expected to provide a good indication of the overall dioxin-like toxic equivalence (TEQ) associated with food occurrence, particularly in industrialised countries and regions where both, historical production and current combustion processes are significant sources. The selection also appears to be representative of the vast majority of PCN TEQ reported in human tissues despite the limited amount of reliable data. Future studies will benefit from the increasing availability of new PCN standards and provide a broader spectrum of occurrence data in foods and human tissues. They will also support toxicological studies on a wider range of congeners and biological effects, enhancing our understanding of PCN-mediated toxicity. Both these information strands will allow refinement and expansion of the proposed selection of congeners, if required.

Occurrence data for stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates from Central Europe.

Freshwater ecosystems represent an unparalleled diversity of habitats and species, but the actual distribution of many species remains obscured or incomplete. The aim of the survey was to contribute to the knowledge on the fauna of lesser-known areas and fill the gaps in the distribution maps of the species. The dataset is based on a one-year-long study surveying 60 locations from different drying river networks that represent different ecoregions in Central Europe: Balcanic (Croatia, 15 sites), Continental (Czechia, 20 sites) and Pannonian (Hungary, 25 sites). Multihabitat sampling approach was applied for collecting stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates. Individuals were identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level, typically to species level. The dataset includes 1827 geo-referenced occurrence records based on presence-absence data of 164 taxa across Gastropoda, Hirudinea and various groups of Insecta (Coleoptera, Hemiptera, Megaloptera, Odonata, Trichoptera) along with geographical information on the sampling sites, and details of the taxonomy of the species. The data can support future studies in ecology, biogeography and nature conservation.

Re-emergence of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) in Egypt: Predicting distribution shifts under climate changes.

Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of several medically significant arboviruses-including dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-was successfully eradicated from Egypt in 1963. However, since 2011, there have been increasing reports of its re-emergence, alongside dengue outbreaks in southern Egyptian governorates, raising significant public health concerns. This study aimed to model the current and future distribution of Ae. aegypti in Egypt. Local occurrence data were integrated with bioclimatic, anthropogenic and biological environmental variables to identify key factors influencing the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling demonstrated strong predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] mean = 0.975; true skill statistic [TSS] mean = 0.789). The key determinants of habitat suitability were identified as human population density, annual precipitation and the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). Current predictions indicate that suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti are concentrated in the Nile Valley, Nile Delta, Fayoum Basin, Red Sea coast and South Sinai. Projections under future climate change scenarios suggest an expansion of suitable habitats, particularly in the Nile Delta region. By 2050, the model predicts a 61%-68% increase in suitable habitat area, with a further 64%-69% increase by 2070, depending on the future climate scenarios. These findings are crucial for informing vector control and disease prevention strategies, particularly considering Egypt's status as one of the world's leading tourist destinations.

P-1399. Impact of Positive Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Testing Among Male Military Trainees

Abstract Background All females trainees entering the U.S. Air Force basic military training (BMT) are tested for chlamydia (CT) and gonorrhea (GC) and account for the vast majority of cases in this population. Recent studies have demonstrated that, when universally tested, BMT males had similar overall rates of CT and GC as compared to females, as most cases are asymptomatic. This study evaluates the incidence of CT and GC in male BMT trainees and follow-up. Methods Over 30,000 BMT recruits train at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland each year. This study included all male trainees who tested positive for CT or GC during their 8-week training period between 2017-2023. Information was obtained regarding patient’s age, indication for testing, facility-type performing testing, date of test, follow-up testing, and occurrence of STIs within three years of diagnosis. Male trainees were then matched with female trainees based on age, date of diagnosis, and pathogen type to determine sex-based differences in follow-up. Results 50 (0.03%) of the 182,726 males who attended BMT between 2017-2023 tested positive for CT or GC during their training. Most cases (88%) were detected in primary care and the median time in training until diagnosis was 12.5 [IQR: 8-27] days. (56%) of male trainees had symptoms on presentation for STI testing, with dysuria (40%) and penile discharge (35%) being the most common. When compared to matched-females, male trainees had significantly less follow-up testing within one year as compared to female trainees (56% vs. 75%, p=0.05). Despite the difference in follow-up testing, there was no difference in STIs diagnosed in the next three years (18% vs. 24%, p=0.5). Conclusion Despite universal access to care, only slightly more than half of male BMT trainees with CT or GC received guideline-directed follow-up within one year. Additionally, approximately one in five men who tested positive for CT or GC during BMT developed a subsequent STI in the next three years, at rates similar to women who tested positive, despite less frequent testing. More work is needed to improve follow-up testing services for those who test positive for CT or GC. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

P-14. Vaccine Effectiveness and Safety of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patient Populations Aged 50 Years and Older

Abstract Background Adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at higher risk of herpes zoster (HZ) compared to the general population. In 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended 2 doses of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for the prevention of HZ and its complications in immunocompromised adults ≥19 years. In this study, we evaluated the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of RZV and risk of flares in adults ≥50 years with IBD. Methods To evaluate VE, we conducted a retrospective matched cohort analysis at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. We included individuals ≥50 years with IBD who received 2 doses of RZV at least 28 days apart during 04/01/2018–12/31/2021 and matched up to 1:3 to RZV unvaccinated individuals on condition (ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease), age, sex, race/ethnicity, IBD medication type, and index date (date of second dose among vaccinated individuals; same date assigned to unvaccinated match). Follow-up started the 31st day after the index date and ended at the earliest date of HZ occurrence, death, disenrollment, HZ vaccination or 12/31/2022. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and VE against HZ, identified by ICD-10 codes and antiviral medications. Using self-controlled case series analysis, we calculated the incidence of IBD new-onset flares in the risk (30 days after each dose) and comparison periods (90 - 61 days prior and 31 - 60 days after each dose) among patients with ≥1 RZV dose. The relative risk (RR) of IBD flare was estimated using conditional Poisson regression. All flares were identified through chart review. Results Of adults ≥50 years with IBD (n=872 2-dose vaccinated, 2550 unvaccinated), 55.4% were female, 74.0% were non-Hispanic white, and mean age was 68.4 years (standard deviation [SD] 9.0). Overall adjusted VE in preventing HZ was 65.1% (95% CI 24.8–83.8%). Among 1199 adults ≥50 years old with IBD receiving ≥1 dose of RZV (53.8% female, 69.6% non-Hispanic white, mean age 68.2 years [SD 9.1]), there was no increased risk of IBD flare within 30 days after RZV vaccination (RR: 0.80; 95% CI 0.47–1.35). Conclusion In adults aged ≥50 with IBD, 2 doses of RZV is effective in preventing HZ with no new safety concerns; RZV vaccination could benefit IBD patients who are at increased risk of HZ. Disclosures Emily Rayens, PhD, MPH, GSK: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support Lina S. Sy, MPH, Dynavax: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support Lei Qian, PhD, Dynavax: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support Jun Wu, MD, MS, Genentech: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|VoxelCloud: Grant/Research Support Bradley Ackerson, MD, Dynavax: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support Yi Luo, PhD, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support Yanjun Cheng, Master of Science, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support Avanish Patel, MD, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support Zendi Solano, BS, Dynavax: Grant/Research Support|Gilead: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support Justine De Jesus, MPH, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support Britta Amundsen, MA, Gilead: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support Ana Florea, PhD, MPH, Gilead: Grant/Research Support|GSK: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support Jennifer H. Ku, PhD MPH, GSK: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support Elizabeth Chmielewski-Yee, PhD, MPH, GSK: Employee of GSK|GSK: Stocks/Bonds (Public Company) Driss Oraichi, PhD, GSK: I am a full time employee of GSK|GSK: Stocks/Bonds (Private Company) Harry Seifert, MD. MSCE, FISPE, GSK: full-time employee|GSK: Stocks/Bonds (Public Company) Huifeng Yun, MD, PhD, GSK: fulltime employee of GSK|GSK: Stocks/Bonds (Public Company) Hung Fu Tseng, PhD MPH, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Moderna: Grant/Research Support

Refined methodologies for probabilistic dietary exposure assessment for food contaminants based on the observed individual means methodology.

The Observed Individual Means (OIM) methodology, based on the non-parametric bootstrap, is usually employed to perform basic probabilistic dietary chronic exposure assessment, and assumes independence and identical distribution of occurrence data within food category. However, this assumption may not be valid if several expected distributions of occurrence can be a priori identified within food category. Moreover, OIM assumes each analysed food sample to equally contribute to mean occurrence, as information about relevance of each food item cannot be incorporated into exposure assessment. In this paper we address the above-mentioned violations and develop two statistical methodologies to accommodate for them into OIM. The stratified non-parametric bootstrap and weighted mean occurrence are employed to correct for such violations. As a case study, we compare the methodologies by estimating the exposure of the adult Italian population to the process contaminant 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol. We propose strategies to interpret their results and show their relevance in conducting exposure assessment. For the first time in the literature, we critically examine a widely used methodology for Probabilistic Dietary Exposure Assessment from a statistical perspective, focusing on the underlying assumptions and their potential violations in real-world scenarios. We then develop techniques to address these violations, providing a more accurate and robust approach to exposure assessment. This work is particularly relevant for risk assessors and managers, since it offers a refined toolset for more precise exposure assessments.

INDOFLOODS: A Comprehensive Database for Flood Events in India Enhanced with Catchment Attributes

Abstract Despite floods causing significant loss of life and property, datasets to characterize flooding events in developing countries such as India are not widely available, hampered by limited hydrometric records. Current flood databases are limited to continental river basins, case studies, and government reports, which doesn’t represent the diversity of flooding in terms of climate, basin morphometry, and triggering mechanisms. This first-of-its-kind flood events database called INDOFLOODS is developed using a unique approach of combining long-term station discharge observations with official flooding thresholds for warning and danger water level. Flooding information include start and end time, peak flood level and discharge and its date of occurrence, flood volume, event duration, time to peak, and recession time. Along with metadata such as upstream catchment area, coordinates, shapefiles, river and tributary names, the database is augmented with large number of geomorphological, climatological, event-scale precipitation, landcover, soil, lithology, and anthropogenic characteristics derived at the catchment scale. Preliminary data analysis based on envelope curves shows that the magnitude of extreme floods in India is higher than those reported in the United States. While every dataset has limitations, this collation of flooding events with a plethora of causative hydrogeomorphic factors in a standardized format will be a major asset for the community and serve as an example for how inconsistent data records in developing countries can be turned into useful flood event databases for data-driven studies. This large sample database is expected to cater to a wide range of applications advancing flood research and management, such as trend analysis, hazard and severity assessment, calibration and validation of hydrological and hydraulic models, and developing new metrics for impact assessment.

Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Angelica sinensis and analysis of its drivers in China

Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km² of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.

Species Distribution Model and Conservation of Mentaok (Wrightia javanica) in Indonesia

The Alas Mentaok was a forest dominated by the mentaok tree (Wrightia javanica) that once existed in Yogyakarta, Java Island, Indonesia. This forest has cultural and historical value, as it is believed to be the first location to establish the Mataram Islam Kingdom in Java in 1582 AD. This study utilized species distribution models (SDMs) to investigate the species distribution pattern and assess its latest conservation status in Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia. The methodology used involved collecting occurrence and environmental data of W. javanica, conducting species distribution modeling using the maximum entropy algorithm, evaluating the model's accuracy, and performing an independent assessment of the area of occupancy (AOO) and extensive occurrence (EOO) using the geospatial conservation assessment tool (GeoCAT). While the number of suitable habitat areas for W. javanica in Yogyakarta is projected to decrease by 2100, the islands of Sumba and Timor are anticipated to experience an increase in the suitable habitat areas for the species during the same year. The analysis of BIOCLIM 34 indicates the mean moisture index of the warmest quarter plays a vital role in the current and future projections. AOO calculation in GeoCAT places this species in the endangered (EN) category, particularly within our regions of interest in Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands. Overall, a full assessment combining a habitat suitability model with current conservation status information would provide a more comprehensive understanding of mentaok's habitat preferences and current conservation status in Indonesia.

Temporal dynamics hidden within species baselines – multifaceted decline of a lichen bioindicator (Bryoria fuscescens)

Abstract Rapid advances in species distribution modelling have been facilitated by open availability of ‘big data’ and powerful statistical methods. A key consideration remains the time window over which field recorded occurrence data are sampled to develop a baseline species distribution. Too narrow, and distributions are incomplete and affected by sampling bias, too broad and distributions may fail to meet an assumption of equilibrium, having been affected by dynamic change across a range of different predictors. Lichens are a case in point; being diverse, functionally important and the subject of bioclimatic modelling for conservation assessment, they are nevertheless a specialist taxonomic group that is comparatively less well recorded compared to birds, mammals or vascular plants, for example. In this study, we examined the distribution of the ‘hair-lichen’ Bryoria fuscescens, based on UK record data. We partitioned records into sub-decadal periods (1970s, 1990s, 2010s), and accounting for recording effort, we compared these distributions to three predictors: an historical reconstruction of two different pollutants (sulphur dioxide and nitrogen deposition), and the climate (minimum mean temperature). We asked whether the strength of evidence for the effect of environmental predictors on Bryoria fuscescens distribution varied among the different decades, while also considering a potential for lag-effects. We show that a Bryoria fuscescens distribution that appears static, is dynamic when referenced against patterns of field recording effort. Climate was consistently important in explaining Bryoria fuscescens distribution, which was also affected by the changing pattern of pollution over time. This included a lag-effect of peak sulphur dioxide in the 1970s, and accrued effects of nitrogen deposition that strengthen over time. Overall, we conclude that Bryoria fuscescens has undergone a long-term decline in extent over the last six decades, caused by complex multivariate effects of air pollution, probably combined with climate warming. The ability to resolve these trends for assessment against future conservation targets depends critically on maintaining field identification skills and a sufficiently robust recording effort.

COSST: A tool to facilitate seed provenancing for climate‐smart ecosystem restoration

Abstract Selecting the best seed sources is a key step in ecological restoration planning especially under climate change. Seed‐provenancing strategies include composite, aiming to reproduce natural gene flow; predictive, focusing on future climate adaptation; and climate‐adjusted, a combination of composite and predictive. Yet, implementing different seed‐provenancing principles remains a challenge. To fill this methodological gap, we developed the Climate‐Oriented Seed‐Sourcing Tool (COSST), a tool built in R capable of suggesting priority areas for seed sourcing according to composite, predictive, or climate‐adjusted strategies, as well as the restoration site and focal species. The tool derives its inputs from species distribution models, which require occurrence and climate data only. COSST accommodates multiple climatic variables, weights the variables according to species‐specific sensitivities, and accounts for uncertainties between climate forecasts. We demonstrated the flexibility of COSST using Caryocar brasiliense (pequi), a tree native to the Brazilian Cerrado, as a case study. The tool identified optimal areas for collecting C. brasiliense seeds and estimated the proportion of seeds to be sourced from various suppliers. We made available an R code for running COSST along with a Shiny application for data visualization. Synthesis and applications. Our tool can guide where to source seeds for species lacking range‐wide information on genetic structure, which is the case for a substantial proportion of the tropical flora, where ecosystem restoration is of paramount importance.

A modeling approach to determine substitutive tree species for sweet chestnut in stands affected by ink disease

Biological invasions, driven mainly by human activities, pose significant threats to global ecosystems and economies, with fungi and fungal-like oomycetes playing a pivotal role. Ink disease, caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi and P. × cambivora, is a growing concern for sweet chestnut stands (Castanea sativa) in Europe. Since both pathogens are thermophilic organisms, ongoing climate change will likely exacerbate their impact. In this study, we applied species distribution modeling techniques to identify potential substitutive species for sweet chestnut in the light of future climate scenarios SSP126 and SSP370 in southern Switzerland. Using the presence-only machine learning algorithm MaxEnt and leveraging occurrence data from the global dataset GBIF, we delineated the current and projected (2070–2100) distribution of 28 tree species. Several exotic species emerged as valuable alternatives to sweet chestnut, although careful consideration of all potential ecological consequences is required. We also identified several native tree species as promising substitutes, offering ecological benefits and potential adaptability to climatic conditions. Since species diversification fosters forest resilience, we also determined communities of alternative species that can be grown together. Our findings represent a valuable decision tool for forest managers confronted with the challenges posed by ink disease and climate change. Given that, even in absence of disease, sweet chestnut is not a future-proof tree species in the study region, the identified species could offer a pathway toward resilient and sustainable forests within the entire chestnut belt.

Predicting habitat refugia of the medicinal plant Dolomiaea costus under two climate change scenarios

Assessing the impacts of climate change on the distribution of medicinally important and endangered species is critical for conservation planning. This study focuses on Dolomiaea costus (Falc.) Kasana & A.K. Pandey, a critically endangered and highly valuable medicinal plant found in the fragile climate of Pakistan. Using species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), we evaluated the current and future habitat suitability of D. costus under two climate change scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585) for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Occurrence data were collected from field surveys and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), while bioclimatic data were sourced from Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas (CHELSA). The MaxEnt model achieved a high mean AUC value of 0.967, indicating strong predictive accuracy. Suitable habitats for D. costus span approximately 99,871 Km2 across the western Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindukush regions. Climate projections revealed that under SSP370, suitable areas decrease from 99,260 Km2 in 2041–2070 to 90,962.5 Km2 in 2071–2100, with high-suitability zones reducing from 13,024.5 Km2 to 11,490.5 Km2. In contrast, the SSP585 scenario showed a modest expansion of suitable habitat from 107,104 Km2 to 111,217.5 Km2, though high-suitability areas declined from 18,208 Km2 to 16,811 Km2. Precipitation-related variables, especially precipitation seasonality, were the most influential drivers of habitat suitability, contributing 64.3% to the model, followed by mean monthly precipitation of the driest quarter (18.8%) and precipitation of the wettest and driest months. Jackknife tests also confirmed their critical importance. These findings underscored the sensitivity of D. costus habitat to the intensity of climate change, particularly under severe warming conditions and highlighted the urgent need for a comprehensive conservation plan. A combination of strategies, including climate-smart conservation, habitat protection, species reintroduction, and cultivation in moderately to highly suitable habitats, is crucial to ensure the long-term survival of D. costus in Pakistan amidst the changing climate.

Towards the sustainability of African sandalwood: Understanding the distribution and environmental requirements

Societal Impact StatementAfrican sandalwood (Osyris lanceolata) leaves, roots, barks, fruits, and woods are used for multiple purposes throughout Asia, Africa, and Europe. The species is threatened in several eastern African countries. To improve the species' management and conservation, a habitat suitability study was undertaken in its at‐risk region in eastern Africa and extended to southern and horn of Africa due to its continuous distribution. African sandalwood continues to face intense human pressure and needs to be prioritized in terms of sustainable management practices. The plant's significant human importance necessitates inclusive conservation measures in all three habitat regions in Africa to safeguard it.Summary African sandalwood (Osyris lanceolata) is a versatile plant with significant economic and societal importance. It is threatened in several countries in Africa due to overexploitation. The lack of knowledge about the plant's ecology and environmental requirements complicates the species' long‐term management. We sought to address this issue by providing a novel understanding of the environmental factors that influence the occurrence of African sandalwood and its potential distribution. Using publicly available occurrence records from 1950 to 2021 and field data, we examined the species' habitat requirements in eastern, southern, and horn of Africa regions. We applied the Generalized Additive Models to link the plant's occurrence data to 12 environmental variables reflecting climatic, physiographic, and edaphic characteristics, while controlling for the biases that arise from publicly gathered occurrence records. Our findings revealed that the plant's habitat requirements vary among the three regions investigated. While climatic factors are essential in all three regions, physiographic aspects are mainly important for the eastern and southern populations, while edaphic variables were pertinent exclusively in southern region. Areas suitable and optimal for the plant were estimated to comprise 674,700 km2 (17.3% of total land area) in eastern Africa, 267,750 km2 (25.6%) in the horn of Africa, and 716,300 km2 (13.9%) in southern Africa. More than two‐thirds of these areas are located on unprotected lands, highlighting the importance of community involvement for a sustainable management of the species. Our results on the potential geographical distribution of African sandalwood are crucial to guide more targeted conservation and recovery efforts.