Abstract Background Dysglycaemia is associated with cardiovascular disease even below the diagnostic diabetes threshold. Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been found to be associated with the metabolic syndrome and life-style changes after AF have been found to reduce recurrence of AF. Purpose We explored the association glucose and risk of first event of AF, HF and combined event. Methods Subject with fasting glucose in the AMORIS cohort, obtained 1985–1996 at routine occupational health check-ups or primary care in the Stockholm area were included. Subjects with prevalent AF, HF, ischemic heart disease, revascularization and cerebrovascular disease were excluded. Glucose levels were categorised as low (<3.9 mmol/L), normal (3.9–6.0mmol/L), impaired (IFG; 6.1–6.9 mmol/L) and diabetes (≥7.0 mmol/L or a diabetes diagnosis) according to WHO definition in 2006. First events of AF, HF or a combined event was identified until December 2011 by linkage to national registries. Information on co-morbidities was obtained from the National Patient Register. Hazard ratios (HR and 95% CI) by glucose group for AF and heart failure were calculated using Cox proportional hazards with attained age as timescale and adjusting for gender, total cholesterol and triglycerides. The change in AF risk by increasing glucose level was described by using splines (Figure). Results 243 665 subjects with mean age 48.3 at index date, 54% male were included. During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years and 4,7 million person years, 23 522 events of AF, 21 411 events of HF and 35 131 combined events occurred. The proportion with IFG and diabetes were 3.2% and 3.3% respectively. In the diabetes group about half were diagnosed prevalent cases (1.5%). Glucose was continuously associated with developement of AF (Table and Figure) and even more of HF (Table). Events (n) and HR by glucose category Atrial fibrillation Heart failure Combined event Event HR [95% CI] Event HR [95% CI] Event HR [95% CI] Low 405 0.97 [0.88–1.08] 326 0.97 [0.87–1.08] 598 1.00 [0.92–1.09] Normal 20 663 1.00 17 811 1.00 30 159 1.00 IFG 1185 1.20 [1.13–1.28] 1319 1.43 [1.35–1.51] 1901 1.30 [1.24–1.36] Diabetes 1269 1.28 [1.20–1.35] 1955 2.19 [2.08–2.29] 2473 1.73 [1.66–1.81] Events (n) of AF, HF and combined and HR (95% CI) by fasting glucose category. HR for AF by glucose level spline graph Conclusion Dysglycaemia, including glucose levels below the diabetes threshold, is continuously associated with future risk of both AF and HF. These data are important considering the large population with undetected dysglycaemia at risk for AF and HF where preventive measures including life-style changes could be of importance even before the onset of overt diabetes. Acknowledgement/Funding Swedish Heart and Lung foundation
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