Interplanetary Scintillation Observations Research Articles

Validation of the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with Observations from the Low Corona to 1 au

Abstract We perform a validation study of the latest version of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. To do so, we compare the simulation results of the model with a comprehensive suite of observations for Carrington rotations representative of the solar minimum conditions extending from the solar corona to the heliosphere up to the Earth. In the low corona (r < 1.25 ), we compare with EUV images from both Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory-A/EUVI and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and to three-dimensional (3D) tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph observations (2.55 < r < 6.0 ). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from InterPlanetary Scintillation observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 au. The model now reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, proton temperature, and density. AWSoM offers an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions.

Global Solar Magnetic Field and Interplanetary Scintillations During the Past Four Solar Cycles

The extended minimum of Solar Cycle 23, the extremely quiet solar-wind conditions prevailing, and the mini-maximum of Solar Cycle 24 drew global attention and many authors have since attempted to predict the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, which is predicted to be the third successive weak cycle; it is a unique opportunity to probe the Sun during such quiet periods. Earlier work has established a steady decline, over two decades, in solar photospheric fields at latitudes above $45^{\circ}$ and a similar decline in solar-wind micro-turbulence levels as measured by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. However, the relation between the photospheric magnetic fields and those in the low corona/solar-wind are not straightforward. Therefore, in the present article, we have used potential-field source-surface (PFSS) extrapolations to deduce global magnetic-fields using synoptic magnetograms observed with National Solar Observatory (NSO), Kitt Peak, USA (NSO/KP) and Solar Optical Long-term Investigation of the Sun (NSO/SOLIS) instruments during 1975-2018. Furthermore, we have measured the normalized scintillation index [m] using the IPS observations carried out at the Institute of Space Earth Environment Research (ISEE), Japan during 1983-2017. From these observations, we have found that, since the mid-1990s, the magnetic-field over different latitudes at 2.5 $\rm R_{\odot}$ and 10 $\rm R_{\odot}$(extrapolated using PFSS method) has decreased by $\approx 11.3-22.2 \%$. In phase with the declining magnetic-fields, the quantity m also declined by $\approx 23.6 \%$. These observations emphasize the inter-relationship between the global magnetic-field and various turbulence parameters in the solar corona and solar wind.

Coordinated Interplanetary Scintillation Observations in Japan and Russia for Coronal Mass Ejection Events in Early September 2017

Interplanetary (IP) shocks traveling between the Sun and the Earth’s orbit were clearly detected in interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations made at Toyokawa (Japan) and Pushchino (Russia), in association with two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred on 04 and 06 September 2017. Since the observation times at Toyokawa and Pushchino differ by about six hours, a combined analysis of the IPS data obtained at these sites enabled high-cadence tracking of the IP shock for one of the CME events. The plane-of-sky locations where the IP disturbances were observed at Toyokawa were generally consistent with those at Pushchino. The propagation speeds of IP shocks inferred from IPS observations were higher than the average speeds derived from the occurrence time of IP shocks at Earth. This difference was ascribed to the deceleration of the CME-driven shocks during propagation. The east–west asymmetry of the propagation speed of IP shocks was also revealed from IPS observations. Solar-wind disturbances moving at a speed significantly slower than the average speed of the IP shock were identified from the IPS observations of the 06 September 2017 halo CME event. A wide longitudinal extent of these slow disturbances was suggested by the fact they were observed not only west but also east of the Sun; i.e. the opposite side to the flare/CME site. The origin of the slow disturbances is considered to represent either wing portions of the highly warped IP shock or the post-shock dense materials.

Studies of the Angular Structure of Scintillating Radio Sources at 111 MHz

The angular sizes and compactnesses of 53 scintillating radio sources observed at 111 MHz on the Large Phased Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute are estimated. The parameters of the angular structures of the sources are estimated using a new method based on a joint analysis of the scintillation index and the asymmetry coefficient for the statistical distribution of the intensity fluctuations. The asymmetry coefficient for scintillations of a point source is estimated based on an analysis of observational data for turbulence in the solar wind. Different methods for estimating source angular sizes based on observations of interplanetary scintillations are compared. It is shown that the proposed new method is suitable for sources with angular sizes up to 1″. The accuracy of the estimated angular sizes and compactnesses of the sources is about 40%.

Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause disturbances in the environment of the Earth when they arrive at the Earth. However, the prediction of the arrival of CMEs still remains a challenge. We have developed an interplanetary scintillation (IPS) estimation system based on a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the inner heliosphere to predict the arrival time of CMEs. In this system, the initial speed of a CME is roughly derived from white-light coronagraph observations. Then, the propagation of the CME is calculated by a global MHD simulation. The IPS response is estimated by the three-dimensional density distribution of the inner heliosphere derived from the MHD simulation. The simulated IPS response is compared with the actual IPS observations made by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, and shows good agreement with that observed. We demonstrated how the simulation system works using a halo CME event generated by a X9.3 flare observed on September 5, 2017. We find that the CME simulation that best estimates the IPS observation can more accurately predict the time of arrival of the CME at the Earth. These results suggest that the accuracy of the CME arrival time can be improved if our current MHD simulations include IPS data.

Comparative Study of Microwave Polar Brightening, Coronal Holes, and Solar Wind over the Solar Poles

We comparatively studied the long-term variation (1992-2017) in polar brightening observed with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, the polar solar wind velocity with interplanetary scintillation observations at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, and the coronal hole distribution computed by potential field calculations of the solar corona using synoptic magnetogram data obtained at Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory. First, by comparing the solar wind velocity (V) and the brightness temperature (T_b) in the polar region, we found good correlation coefficients (CCs) between V and T_b in the polar regions, CC = 0.91 (0.83) for the northern (southern) polar region, and we obtained the V-T_b relationship as V =12.6 (T_b-10,667)^{1/2}+432. We also confirmed that the CC of V-T_b is higher than those of V-B and V-B/f, where B and f are the polar magnetic field strength and magnetic flux expansion rate, respectively. These results indicate that T_b is a more direct parameter than B or B/f for expressing solar wind velocity. Next, we analyzed the long-term variation of the polar brightening and its relation to the area of the polar coronal hole (A). As a result, we found that the polar brightening matches the probability distribution of the predicted coronal hole and that the CC between T_b and A is remarkably high, CC = 0.97. This result indicates that the polar brightening is strongly coupled to the size of the polar coronal hole. Therefore, the reasonable correlation of V-T_b is explained by V-A. In addition, by considering the anti-correlation between A and f found in a previous study, we suggest that the V-T_b relationship is another expression of the Wang-Sheeley relationship (V-1/f) in the polar regions.

Large-scale structure of solar wind beyond Earth’s orbit reconstructed by using data of two-site interplanetary scintillation observations at decameter radio waves

Large-scale structure of solar wind beyond Earth’s orbit reconstructed by using data of two-site interplanetary scintillation observations at decameter radio waves

Solar cycle 24: An unusual polar field reversal

Context. It is well known that the polarity of the Sun’s magnetic field reverses or flips around the maximum of each 11 year solar cycle. This is commonly known as polar field reversal and plays a key role in deciding the polar field strength at the end of a cycle, which is crucial for the prediction of the upcoming cycle. Aims. We aim to investigate solar polar fields during cycle 24, using measurements of solar magnetic fields in the latitude range 55°–90° and 78°–90°, to report a prolonged and unusual hemispheric asymmetry in the polar field reversal pattern in solar cycle 24. Methods. This study was carried out using medium resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the magnetic database of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (NSO/KP), USA for the period between February 1975 and October 2017, covering solar cycles 21–24 and high-resolution line-of-sight synoptic magnetograms from the Michaelson Doppler Imager instrument onboard the Solar Heliospheric Observatory. Synoptic magnetograms using radial measurements from the Heliospheric Magnetic Imager instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, covering solar cycle 23 and 24, were also used. Results. We show that the southern solar hemisphere unambiguously reversed polarity in mid-2013 while the reversal in the field in the northern solar hemisphere started as early as June 2012, was followed by a sustained period of near-zero field strength lasting until the end of 2014, after which the field began to show a clear rise from its near-zero value. While this study compliments a similar study carried out using microwave brightness measurements which claimed that the field reversal process in cycle 24 was completed by the end of 2015, our results show that the field reversal in cycle 24 was completed earlier that is, in late 2014. Signatures of this unusual field reversal pattern were also clearly identifiable in the solar wind, using our observations of interplanetary scintillation at 327 MHz which supported our magnetic field observations and confirmed that the field reversal process was completed at the end of 2014.

Interplanetary scintillation studies with the Murchison Widefield Array III: comparison of source counts and densities for radio sources and their sub-arcsecond components at 162 MHz

We use Murchison Widefield Array observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) to determine the source counts of point ($<$0.3 arcsecond extent) sources and of all sources with some subarcsecond structure, at 162 MHz. We have developed the methodology to derive these counts directly from the IPS observables, while taking into account changes in sensitivity across the survey area. The counts of sources with compact structure follow the behaviour of the dominant source population above $\sim$3 Jy but below this they show Euclidean behaviour. We compare our counts to those predicted by simulations and find a good agreement for our counts of sources with compact structure, but significant disagreement for point source counts. Using low radio frequency SEDs from the GLEAM survey, we classify point sources as Compact Steep-Spectrum (CSS), flat spectrum, or peaked. If we consider the CSS sources to be the more evolved counterparts of the peaked sources, the two categories combined comprise approximately 80% of the point source population. We calculate densities of potential calibrators brighter than 0.4 Jy at low frequencies and find 0.2 sources per square degrees for point sources, rising to 0.7 sources per square degree if sources with more complex arcsecond structure are included. We extrapolate to estimate 4.6 sources per square degrees at 0.04 Jy. We find that a peaked spectrum is an excellent predictor for compactness at low frequencies, increasing the number of good calibrators by a factor of three compared to the usual flat spectrum criterion.

Interplanetary scintillation studies with the Murchison Widefield Array – II. Properties of sub-arcsecond compact sources at low radio frequencies

We report the first astrophysical application of the technique of wide-field Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). This powerful technique allows us to identify and measure sub-arcsecond compact components in low-frequency radio sources across large areas of sky without the need for long-baseline interferometry or ionospheric calibration. We present the results of a five-minute observation of a 30x30 sq. deg MWA field at 162 MHz with 0.5 second time resolution. Of the 2550 continuum sources detected in this field, 302 (12 per cent) show rapid fluctuations caused by IPS. We find that at least 32% of bright low-frequency radio sources contain a sub-arcsec compact component that contributes over 40% of the total flux density. Perhaps surprisingly, peaked-spectrum radio sources are the dominant population among the strongly-scintillating, low-frequency sources in our sample. While gamma-ray AGN are generally compact, flat-spectrum radio sources at higher frequencies, the 162 MHz properties of many of the Fermi blazars in our field are consistent with a compact component embedded within more extended low-frequency emission. The detection of a known pulsar in our field shows that the wide-field IPS technique is at the threshold of sensitivity needed to detect new pulsars using image plane analysis, and scaling the current MWA sensitivity to that expected for SKA-low implies that large IPS-based pulsar searches will be feasible with SKA. Calibration strategies for the SKA require a better knowledge of the space density of compact sources at low radio frequencies, which IPS observations can now provide.

Space weather at planet Venus during the forthcoming BepiColombo flybys

The BepiColombo (BC) Mission which will be launched in 2018, will include during its Cruise Phase two flybys of Venus and five Mercury flybys. It will then enter a one Earth year orbit about Mercury (with a possible one-year extension) during which two spacecraft, one provided by ESA (MPO) and one provided by JAXA (MMO), will perform both autonomous and coordinated observations of the Hermean environment at various separations. The measurements will take place during the minimum of solar cycle 24 and the rise of solar cycle 25. At the start of the minimum of solar cycle 23, four major flares, each associated with the production of MeV particle radiation and CME activity occurred. Predictions of the HAFv.2 model of the arrival of particle radiation and a travelling shock at Venus on 6 December 2006 were verified by in-situ measurements made aboard Venus Express (VEX) by the ASPERA 4 instrument. Interplanetary scintillation observations, as well as the ENLIL 3-D MHD model when employed separately or in combination, enable the making of predictions of the solar wind density and speed at various locations in the inner heliosphere. Both methods, which outdate HAFv.2, are utilized in the present paper to predict (retrospectively) the arrival of the flare related, interplanetary propagating shock recorded at Venus on 6 December 2006 aboard VEX with a view to putting in place the facility to make very reliable space weather predictions for BC during both its Cruise Phase and when in the Hermean environment itself. The successful matching of the December 2006 predictions with in-situ signatures recorded aboard Venus Express provide confidence that the predictive methodology to be adopted will be appropriate to provide space weather predictions for BepiColombo during its Venus flybys and throughout the mission.

Interplanetary Scintillation with the Murchison Widefield Array I: a sub-arcsecond survey over 900 deg2 at 79 and 158 MHz

We present the first dedicated observations of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) with the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). We have developed a synthesis imaging technique, tailored to the properties of modern "large-N" low-frequency radio telescopes. This allows us to image the variability on IPS timescales across 900 square degrees simultaneously. We show that for our observations, a sampling rate of just 2Hz is sufficient to resolve the IPS signature of most sources. We develop tests to ensure that IPS variability is separated from ionospheric or instrumental variability. We validate our results by comparison with existing catalogues of IPS sources, and near-contemporaneous observations by other IPS facilities. Using just five minutes of data, we produce catalogues at both 79MHz and 158MHz, each containing over 350 scintillating sources. At the field centre we detect approximately one scintillating source per square degree, with a minimum scintillating flux density at 158MHz of 110mJy, corresponding to a compact flux density of approximately 400mJy. Each of these sources is a known radio source, however only a minority were previously known to contain sub-arcsecond components. We discuss our findings and the prospects they hold for future astrophysical and heliospheric studies.

Interplanetary scintillation observation and analysis using Martian spacecraft downlink signal from VLBI station

The Mars Express (MEX) passed through superior solar conjunction in June, 2015. The X-band telemetry signal of MEX with solar offset R in the range of 11 R⊙~160 R⊙ were recorded by Sheshan VLBI station. Phase scintillation and its power spectral were extracted from VLBI broadband recording system. The phase scintillation spectral were power-low in the range of 3 mHz~0.3 Hz, and the corresponding refraction spectral index are kept constantly with −3.3±0.25 over the full range of solar offset from 11 R⊙~160 R⊙, which is consistent with Kolmogorov turbulence. The structure constant of refractive index fluctuation has a relation of ~ R −1.98±0.27 with R , which indicates that the turbulence near solar is much stronger than that far from solar. The total electron content along the light sight (TEC) through the solar wind was acquired with phase scintillation index. The change trend of TEC is consistent with the TEC calculated using models from both solar active and quiet periods. The Doppler measurement method and interplanetary scintillation based on VLBI station can be used in solar conjunction with Chinese Mars explorer in the future.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ СОЛНЕЧНОГО ВЕТРА ПОСРЕДСТВОМ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ МЕЖПЛАНЕТНЫХ МЕРЦАНИЙ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ РАДИОИСТОЧНИКОВ В ДЕКАМЕТРОВОМ ДИАПАЗОНЕ РАДИОВОЛН

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ СОЛНЕЧНОГО ВЕТРА ПОСРЕДСТВОМ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ МЕЖПЛАНЕТНЫХ МЕРЦАНИЙ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ РАДИОИСТОЧНИКОВ В ДЕКАМЕТРОВОМ ДИАПАЗОНЕ РАДИОВОЛН

Space Weather and Solar Wind Studies with OWFA

In this paper, we review the results of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations made with the legacy system of the Ooty Radio Telescope (ORT) and compare them with the possibilities opened by the upgraded ORT, the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA). The stability and the sensitivity of the legacy system of ORT allowed the regular monitoring of IPS on a grid of large number of radio sources and the results of these studies have been useful to understand the physical processes in the heliosphere and space weather events, such as coronal mass ejections, interaction regions and their propagation effects. In the case of OWFA, its wide bandwidth of 38 MHz, the large field of view of $\sim$27$^\circ$ and increased sensitivity provide a unique capability for the heliospheric science at 326.5 MHz. IPS observations with the OWFA would allow one to monitor more than 5000 sources per day. This, in turn, will lead to much improved studies of space weather events and solar wind plasma, overcoming the limitations faced with the legacy system. We also highlight some of the specific aspects of the OWFA, potentially relevant for the studies of coronal plasma and its turbulence characteristics.

Corotating structures in the solar wind from 111-MHz observations of interplanetary scintillations at large elongations

Results of continuous 111 MHz observations of interplanetary scintillations of the strong radio source 3C 48 at elongations larger than 80◦ out on the Large Phased Array (LPA) of the Lebedev Physical Institute are reported. The data were taken during a four-year interval, from 2012 to 2015, near the maximum of the 24th solar-activity cycle. The averaged elongation dependence of the scintillation index and similar dependences for individual years during the approach and recession phases suggest the presence of a periodic modulation with a 26-day period, which is masked by day-to-day variations. This periodic modulation can be explained by the existence of a long-lived region of enhanced plasma density adjacent to the solar equator during the solar-activity maximum. It is shown that the scintillation timescale increases in the transition to elongations exceeding 90◦.

Relation Between Coronal Hole Areas and Solar Wind Speeds Derived from Interplanetary Scintillation Measurements

We investigate the relation between coronal hole (CH) areas and solar wind speeds during 1995 – 2011 using the potential field (PF) model analysis of magnetograph observations and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (formerly Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory) of Nagoya University. We obtained a significant positive correlation between the CH areas ( $A$ ) derived from the PF model calculations and solar wind speeds ( $V$ ) derived from the IPS observations. The correlation coefficients between them are usually high, but they drop significantly in solar maxima. The slopes of the $A$ – $V$ relation are roughly constant except for the period around solar maximum, when flatter or steeper slopes are observed. The excursion of the correlation coefficients and slopes at solar maxima is ascribed partly to the effect of rapid structural changes in the coronal magnetic field and solar wind, and partly to the predominance of small CHs. It is also demonstrated that $V$ is inversely related to the flux expansion factor ( $f$ ) and that $f$ is closely related to $A^{-1/2}$ ; hence, $V \propto A^{1/2}$ . A better correlation coefficient is obtained from the $A^{1/2}$ – $V$ relation, and this fact is useful for improving space weather predictions. We compare the CH areas derived from the PF model calculations with He i 1083 nm observations and show that the PF model calculations provide reliable estimates of the CH area, particularly for large $A$ .

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

AbstractLegislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high‐performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground‐based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

Monitoring of the turbulent solar wind with the upgraded Large Phased Array of the Lebedev Institute of Physics: First results

The design properties and technical characteristics of the upgraded Large Phased Array (LPA) are briefly described. The results of an annual cycle of observations of interplanetary scintillations of radio sources on the LPA with the new 96-beam BEAM 3 system are presented. Within a day, about 5000 radio sources displaying second-timescale fluctuations in their flux densities due to interplanetary scintillations were observed. At present, the parameters of many of these radio sources are unknown. Therefore, the number of sources with root-mean-square flux-density fluctuations greater than 0.2 Jy in a 3° × 3° area of sky was used to characterize the scintillation level. The observational data obtained during the period of the maximum of solar cycle 24 can be interpreted using a three-component model for the spatial structure of the solar wind, consisting of a stable global component, propagating disturbances, and corotating structures. The global component corresponds to the spherically symmetric structure of the distribution of the turbulent interplanetary plasma. Disturbances propagating from the Sun are observed against the background of the global structure. Propagating disturbances recorded at heliocentric distances of 0.4–1 AU and at all heliolatitudes reach the Earth’s orbit one to two days after the scintillation enhancement. Enhancements of ionospheric scintillations are observed during night-time. Corotating disturbances have a recurrence period of 27d. Disturbances of the ionosphere are observed as the coronal base of a corotating structure approaches the western edge of the solar limb.

SEPARATING NIGHTSIDE INTERPLANETARY AND IONOSPHERIC SCINTILLATION WITH LOFAR

ABSTRACT Observation of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) beyond Earth-orbit can be challenging due to the necessity to use low radio frequencies at which scintillation due to the ionosphere could confuse the interplanetary contribution. A recent paper by Kaplan et al. presenting observations using the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) reports evidence of nightside IPS on two radio sources within their field of view. However, the low time cadence of 2 s used might be expected to average out the IPS signal, resulting in the reasonable assumption that the scintillation is more likely to be ionospheric in origin. To check this assumption, this Letter uses observations of IPS taken at a high time cadence using the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR). Averaging these to the same as the MWA observations, we demonstrate that the MWA result is consistent with IPS, although some contribution from the ionosphere cannot be ruled out. These LOFAR observations represent the first of nightside IPS using LOFAR, with solar wind speeds consistent with a slow solar wind stream in one observation and a coronal mass ejection expected to be observed in another.