Monetary Policy Objectives Research Articles

Analisis Permintaan Uang dan Penawaran Uang serta Implikasinya Terhadap Kebijakan Moneter

Bank Indonesia sets the main objectives of monetary policy to achieve stability in the value of the rupiah, maintain payment system stability, and maintain financial system stability, in order to support economic growth. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of GDP on the demand for money, the influence of the BI-Rate on both the demand for money and the supply of money, as well as the influence of inflation, the exchange rate and the statutory reserve requirement (GWM) on the supply of money, and the implications for monetary policy. Research period 2010-2023. The data analysis method is the Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) simultaneous equation model. The results obtained are that GDP has a significant positive effect on the demand for money, BI-Rate has a significant negative effect on both the demand for money and the supply of money, inflation has a significant negative effect on the supply of money, and the exchange rate and GWM are proven to have a significant positive effect on the supply of money.

A wavelet analysis of monetary policy transmission channels in Morocco

PurposeThis paper examines the effects of monetary policy and the interdependencies between the real economy, the financial sector and monetary variables.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the continuous wavelet transform to examine how the relationship between the variables in question evolves over time and across various frequencies.FindingsThe results underscore the ineffectiveness of the exchange rate channel. Despite monetary policy consistently leading long-term interest rates, its limited impact on investment suggests the interest rate channel may be less operational. Conversely, the study presents evidence supporting the credit channel’s effectiveness, not only in low market volatility but also during economic downturns. Finally, the examination of the asset prices channel uncovers that the stock market was influenced by monetary policy during its brisk ascent, while real estate led monetary policy.Practical implicationsThe study yields several practical implications. It emphasizes employing advanced mathematical methods to capture the dynamic relationships between monetary policy and economic variables. It highlights the importance of a resilient banking sector given its significant role in the economic advancement of the country. It underscores the need to develop a more inclusive and dynamic financial system and diversify funding alternatives for the private sector to make asset prices a pivotal channel for achieving monetary policy objectives. And with Morocco’s transition to an inflation targeting framework and a flexible exchange rate regime, assessing the effectiveness of the interest rate and exchange rate channels becomes crucial. While the innovative use of wavelet coherence methodology sets a precedent for evaluating monetary policy transmission channels in developing countries, urging researchers and policymakers to explore novel quantitative approaches.Originality/valueThis article stands out as one of the few to employ the wavelet coherence methodology to investigate monetary policy transmission across multiple channels, specifically within the context of a developing country.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: Much ado About Nothing?

ABSTRACT Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are increasingly becoming a subject matter for a variety of stakeholders in the economy as a whole. In this paper, we will first analyse the nature of CBDCs to show that it is essentially a digital liability of central banks, like today’s settlement balances that banks use in their own transactions. Such a ‘wholesale’ CBDC may exist along a ‘retail’ CBDC, which is the digital version of banknotes that, to date, any non-bank agents can use for their small-value payments. In this perspective, CBDCs are therefore ‘much ado about nothing’, as they just represent the most recent evolution of the form of money. However, in this paper we will also show that such an evolution could have some relevant consequences for monetary policy objectives like financial stability and banks’ solvency if ‘retail’ CBDCs replace banknotes in advanced economies, thereby providing an interesting alternative to bank deposits — particularly if these CBDCs are going to be remunerated by the issuing central banks. The last section will expand on this issue, focusing on the possible reaction of the banking sector, whose aim is and will remain the maximization of banks’ profits over the short run.

Central bank communication in unconventional times: Some evidence from a textual analysis of the National Bank of Poland communication during the COVID-crisis

The article analyses the communication of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) one year after the announcement of the crisis response package adopted after the outbreak of the COVID pandemic. It presents the perspective of a central bank that first entered unconventional monetary ground during the COVID-crisis. The analysis aims to answer the question of what message about monetary policy objectives may have been conveyed in communication with regard to possible interpretations of the response actions by economic agents. Misinterpretations of policy actions at the time, fuelled by the increased attention to inflation, could later contribute to higher inflation persistence. The article presents findings based on the innovative use of MAXQDA Pro 2022 solutions for textual analysis of central bank’s communication. It points to three inconsistencies in the NBP’s communication that could potentially lead to misinterpretation of the NBP’s policy actions in response to the crisis and thus affect the formation of expectations.

Determinants of Private Consumption Expenditure in Australia: ARDL Study

This paper studies the relationship among non-public intake expenditure and independent variables that encompass GDP, population number, interest price, and inflation price in Australia at some point of the duration from 1960 to 2022using the Autoregressive disbursed Lag version (ARDL). The studies additionally ambitions to take a look at the impact of displacement among non-public intake spending and government consumption spending using a model (ARDL). The have a look at determined that there may be an advantageous and enormous dating between personal intake spending and each output and populace in the end. Ultimately, a 1% growth in GDP is related to a zero.8% boom in private consumption pending, and a 1% boom in populace is associated with a zero.3% increase in private consumption spending. However, there is an inverse and tremendous dating among private consumption spending and both interest rate and government consumer spending in the long run. Ultimately, a 1% boom in the interest rate is associated with a 0.2% lower in private consumption spending, and a 1% growth inside the inflation rate is related to a 0.1% lower in private consumption spending. Inside the quick term, there's a high-quality and substantial dating between private consumption spending and both output and population. Within the short term, a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a zero.6% growth in private consumer spending, and a 1% increase in population is associated with a 0.2% growth in private consumer spending. However, there is an inverse dating among private consumer spending and short-time period interest rate, within the quick term, a 1% increase within the interest price is related to a 0.1% decrease in private consumer spending. The findings of this study advise that the imperative financial institution can use financial coverage equipment order to persuade the intermediate objective of monetary policy and have an effect private consumer spending and aggregate demand. Taxes can also be used as one of the fiscal coverage gear to persuade disposable income which will change private client spending and combination demand.

ტრიფინის პარადოქსი ოცდამეერთე საუკუნეში

This article presents a fresh perspective on the Triffin Paradox, a concept introduced by economist Robert Triffin in the mid-20th century that continues to have a significant impact on global financial systems and policies. Despite the passage of time and the evolution of the economy, the fundamental principles of the Triffin Paradox remain relevant in today's financial discussions. The paper provides a thorough analysis of the ongoing relevance of the Triffin Paradox in the modern global economy. It draws upon historical context, theoretical frameworks, and empirical evidence to shed light on how the paradox continues to manifest itself in the current financial landscape. Specifically, it explores how the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency perpetuates structural imbalances and systemic vulnerabilities, echoing the concerns raised by Triffin. Moreover, the paper delves into the implications of the Triffin Paradox for various stakeholders, including policymakers and central banks. It examines the challenges posed by the pursuit of domestic monetary policy objectives in an interconnected world, where the stability of the global financial system relies heavily on the stability of the reserve currency issuer. Additionally, the paper explores potential strategies for mitigating the risks associated with the Triffin Paradox and fostering a more sustainable international monetary order. By integrating insights from economics, finance, and international relations, this paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the Triffin Paradox and its enduring significance in shaping contemporary financial dynamics. It emphasizes the need for policymakers and stakeholders to address the inherent structural tensions in the global monetary system, with the goal of promoting financial stability, economic resilience, and inclusive prosperity worldwide.

The role of foreign reserves in inflation dynamics

Purpose – Central banks’ foreign reserve stocks in emerging markets have increased substantially in recent decades. Foreign reserves accumulation has been widely believed as a shock absorber to prevent financial crises. Meanwhile, accelerating foreign reserves might be contradictory to the monetary policy objectives. This research aims to investigate the impact of foreign reserves on the inflation dynamics.Method – We apply the inflation-expectation augmented Phillips curve on the monthly data over the period of 2005(7) to 2020(12) in the case of Indonesia. Findings – We show that stockpiling foreign exchange reserves indeed has an inflationary pressure impact. The central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is more significant in selling rather than purchasing foreign exchange. However, the non-monetary factors also play an important role in determining inflation. Implications – Considering channels through which foreign reserves might affect inflation, our findings suggest the monetary authority should be concerned with inflationary expectations in the short term as one of the major policy-driven goals to maintain price stability in the long run.Originality – This paper contributes to the literature on monetary policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research employs the inflation-expectation augmented Phillips curve and accommodates the issue of asymmetric effects of the change in foreign reserves.

An Assessment of Kenyan Diplomatic Strategies in Managing Its Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Disputes

In LDCs like Ethiopia, one of the major macroeconomic problems is the absence of effective monetary policy. The money demand function play a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially in selecting appropriate monetary policy actions. The objective of monetary policy in the least developing countries (LDCs) is usually related to money and credit control, price stabilization and economic growth. Many LDCs considered, price stability as the most important objective of monetary polices and it is important to testing the stability of parameter of money demand function indicate the effectiveness of the conduct of monetary policy. The research to be conducted therefore is to investigate the determinants of money demand function. Based on the data, which could be found an error correction model (ECM) was applied to estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia. From the study it is found that, money demand is positively related with real GDP and it is negatively related with expected inflation. The coefficient of real effective exchange rate is positive or negative depending on the magnitude of the appreciation and depreciation of local currency. Thus the studies calls for appropriate formulation and implementation of sound monetary policy capable of bringing stability in the coomy coupled with sustainable growth. Keywords : money demand , economic growth , error correction model DOI : 10.7176/DCS/9-1-02

Основы координации денежно-кредитной и бюджетно-налоговой политик для обеспечения роста российской экономики

The subject of the study is monetary and fiscal policy, which are one of the basic tools for regulating economic processes in the Russian economic system, the coordination of which is an essential factor in the success of ensuring the overall effects of economic policy. The purpose of the work is to establish effective measures to respond to emerging shocks in the context of current sanctions pressure from Western countries without mutually neutralizing one type of government policy with the tools of another policy. This article examines the main instruments of the state's economic policy from the perspective of their mutual influence and interaction in order to achieve positive results for the economic system. The essence of the tax mechanism has been established. In terms of budget policy, the mechanism of subsidizing enterprises is justified. The concept of a budget rule is defined. The goals and objectives of monetary policy are highlighted. It is concluded that since simultaneous indirect influence on macroeconomic processes is carried out through the instruments of the monetary policy of the central bank and the instruments of the fiscal policy of the Government, there is a problem of mutual influence of the adopted fiscal and monetary measures in terms of neutralizing or reinforcing each other effects that can have a negative impact on the achievement of The ultimate goal of both directions of economic policy is to ensure conditions for sustainable economic growth.

ОЦЕНКА СОГЛАСОВАННОСТИ ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНОЙ И БЮДЖЕТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ В РОССИИ

The objectives of monetary and budgetary policy are considered, the main macroeconomic indicators are considered, conclusions are drawn about the dynamics of inflation, GDP, and public debt. The theoretical justification of the need to harmonize monetary and budgetary policies is presented, the IS-LM model is considered as a tool for determining the macroeconomic equilibrium of indicators. The problems of coordination of the budgetary and monetary policy of the Russian Federation are identified. The relevance of the study is due to the need to coordinate monetary and budgetary policies.

Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria: 1985-2022

The study examined the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria, using annual data spanning the period 1985 to 2022. One of the major objectives of monetary policy in Nigeria is economic growth but despite the various monetary efforts that have been adopted by the Central Bank of Nigeria over the years, inflation remains a major threat to Nigeria's economic growth. Despite the increased focus on monetary policy adoption in Nigeria, the country's economic growth remains an issue. High unemployment, low investment, high inflation, and an unstable foreign exchange rate are examples of such issues. These alleged issues are said to have contributed to Nigeria's rapid drop in economic growth. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between economic growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and money supply in Nigeria. In this regard, the study employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and established a long-run relationship between economic growth and interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, and money supply. Specifically, the findings suggested that in the long run only interest rate has significant effects on economic growth while exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate have a positive relationship with the dependent variable, it was only the inflation rate that has a negative relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Given the important role of interest rates in promoting economic growth, the study recommends that a significant decrease in interest rates will lead to an increase in the growth of the economy as the reduced interest rate will serve as bait for investors in the Nigerian economy.

High Powered Money in India-An Empirical Analysis

High powered money in the sum of commercial bank reserves and currency (notes and coins) held by Public. High powered money in the base for the expansion of bank deposit and creation of money supply. Thus high powered money H=C+RR+ER. Where C represents currency with the public, RR the required reserves in the commercial banks and ER the excess reserves with banks. High powered money also known as the monetary base. In India the Reserve Bank of India is responsible for regulatory and controlling the monetary base. It is important to note that the composition and dynamics of high powered money in India can change over time due to shifts in monetary policy, economic conditions, and changes in banking regulations. High powered money plays a fundamental role in monetary system. It serves as the base upon which the broader money supply (M1, M2 etc) is created through the process of fractional reserve banking. When banks make loans, they create deposits, effectively increasing the broader money supply. The RBI uses various tools, such as open market operations and reserve requirement, to control the growth of high powered money and, consequently the money supply to achieves its monetary policy objectives, such as controlling inflation and promoting economic growth.

Central banks and inequality

Monetary policy measures in reaction to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in unprecedented (re)distributional effects. In addition, Central Bank (CB) interventions have been conceptualized as targeted measures favouring certain market participants compared to others. Against this background, discussions about CBs and inequality have sparked in the economic and legal literature. The article takes up this discourse and sheds light on the different aspects of equality within monetary policy: equality as an objective of monetary policy, equality and inequality considerations with regard to the design of monetary policy measures, and equality and inequality as side effects of monetary policy and the interaction between inequality and the monetary policy transmission. The aim is to provide a structural analysis of how the notion of equality is embedded in the mandate of the ECB and how it translates into legal requirements with regard to the implementation of monetary policy measures. Central Banks, inequality, ECB, monetary policy, global financial crisis, COVID-19

Monetary Policy Transmission Channels on the Performance of Nigerian Stock Market

This study examined the effect of electronic payment instruments and inflation rate in Nigeria. The objective was to study the effect of different electronic payment instruments on Nigeria inflation rate. Time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 2012 to 2021. Nigeria inflation rate was model as the function of automated teller machine, point of sales, web payment, mobile payment, Nigeria interbank payment and cheque payment. Ordinary least square was used as data analysis methods. The study found that 77.4 and 62 percent variation in inflation rate in Nigeria was explained by variation in electronic payment instruments. From the findings, the study concludes that automated teller machine has positive and significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria, point of sales has positive and significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria, web payment has positive but no significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria, mobile payment has positive but no significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria, Nigeria inter-bank payment has positive and significant effect on inflation rate in Nigeria while cheque payment has positive but no significant effect on Nigeria inflation rate. the study therefore recommend that, the regulatory authorities should ensure that the application of electronic payment instruments such as Automated Teller machine and point of sales regulated to achieve price stability and low inflation and that the application of electronic payment statistics should be harmonized with the monetary policy objectives of achieving low inflation and policies should be guided to reduce the amount of electronic payment transactions.

Застосування монетарних режимів у процесі прийняття рішень із грошово-кредитної політики

Introduction. The article studies two main monetary regimes in the process of monetary reform of central banks: a target-based regime and a rule-based regime. Inflation targeting is the most common rule of monetary policy. Using the key rate as a monetary policy tool can ensure price stability and economic growth. Problem Statement. Using the interest rate rule of inflation targeting, the central bank has certain advantages over the target variables. If preferences change unexpectedly, they are not taken into account by economic agents as quickly and act as an exogenous shock to the economy. This allows the central bank to test its policy against a rule that is potentially persistent in many cases of macroeconomic models. The purpose is to evaluate the reforms of the monetary regimes of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Federal Reserve System, which are based on legally established rules and instruments of monetary policy, which enables the central bank to make effective monetary decisions to achieve price stability and sustainable employment. Methods. The Taylor rule was used to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between the inflation target and the variables of the Taylor function, including the gap between GDP and potential GDP, as well as the determination of the key rate based on the quantitative parameters of the target function. This confirms the expediency of applying the Taylor rule when implementing the inflation targeting regime. Results. Reforms of monetary regimes were aimed at clarifying the political responsibility of central banks, strengthening their independence in making decisions related to monetary policy objectives. The reforms were supposed to contribute to increasing the level of transparency by improving the effectiveness of the communication policy, which consisted in transmitting policy decisions from the central bank to the public and signaling future political intentions. In general, the responsibility in the inflation targeting regime is enhanced by the public nature of the assumed obligations related to the announced goal and the requirements put forward by the central bank regarding its implementation. Achieving the goal becomes an indicator of the central bank's effective activity. Conclusions. Many of the aspects that were introduced in New Zealand and the US – the public commitment to an inflation target, high levels of transparency and accountability – are now considered the best practice in monetary policy. Making targets public promotes accountability, especially if the central bank has a single policy objective – price stability or an inflation target. Otherwise, broad independence in decision-making may make the central bank less accountable, and therefore independence should be clearly linked to the objectives rather than the choice of instruments, which is the best strategy for central bank reform.

Financial independence and its implications for euro area central banks

The principle of financial independence recently recognized by the Court of Justice in the Banka Slovenije judgment requires that euro area central banks should be able to avail themselves with sufficient financial resources to carry out their tasks, as in situations in which central banks are financially dependent on the State to operate, the latter might impose conditions impairing the monetary policy objective. The Banka Slovenije judgment arrives within a context never faced before by the Eurosystem, that of several euro area central banks facing losses from the implementation of the monetary policy function. This novel situation, which is very likely to be prolonged over the next years, together with the articulation of the principle of financial independence by the Court of Justice, has an impact on the role of the State as a possible last resort provider of additional capital to the central bank, on the tools that central banks have in place to protect themselves against losses, and on the stability of accountability arrangements. This article assesses this impact and proposes a mechanism based on the reallocation of losses to the ECB which reinforces the financial independence of euro area central banks and streamlines accountability practices.

Determinants of Private Consumption Expenditure in Egypt: ARDL Study

This paper studies the relationship between private consumption expenditure and independent variables that include GDP, population number, interest rate, and inflation rate in Egypt during the period from 1955 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The research also aims to study the effect of displacement between private consumption spending and government consumption spending using a model (ARDL). The study found that there is a positive and significant relationship between private consumption spending and both output and population in the long run. In the long run, a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.8% increase in private consumption spending, and a 1% increase in population is associated with a 0.3% increase in private consumption spending. However, there is an inverse and significant relationship between private consumer spending and both interest rates and government consumer spending in the long run. In the long run, a 1% increase in the interest rate is associated with a 0.2% decrease in private consumption spending, and a 1% increase in the inflation rate is associated with a 0.1% decrease in private consumption spending. In the short term, there is a positive and significant relationship between private consumption spending and both output and population. In the short term, a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.6% increase in private consumption spending, and a 1% increase in population is associated with a 0.2% increase in private consumption spending. However, there is an inverse relationship between consumer spending Private and short-term interest rate. In the short term, a 1% increase in the interest rate is associated with a 0.1% decrease in private consumption spending. The findings of this study suggest that the central bank can use monetary policy tools in order to influence the intermediate objective of monetary policy and influence private consumer spending and aggregate demand. Taxes can also be used as one of the fiscal policy tools to influence disposable income in order to change private consumer spending and aggregate demand.

IMPLEMENTING MONETARY POLICY WITH APPLICATION OF SUKUK: CHALLENGES AND POLICY DIRECTIONS

Each market economy uses monetary policy to attain certain macroeconomic goals of price stability, higher growth and employment. A market economy having an interest-based conventional banking system applies mainly interest-based tools to attain the objectives of monetary policy. In contrast, a market economy with interest-based and interest-free banking needs to apply Shariah-compliant monetary instruments vis-à-vis conventional tools for attaining the goals of the monetary policy. As there is a paucity of quality research on Sukuk-based monetary policy, the current paper will explore Shariah compliant monetary instrument ‘Sukuk’ for use as a monetary tool in dual banking, examining experiences of Shariah-based monetary operations in different countries. The paper will also examine the challenges of monetary policy operating in the dual banking system of Bangladesh with policy options for addressing the challenges.
 
 Keywords: Dual banking system, monetary policy, Shariah based monetary operations, Sukuk, Qard-al-Hasan.
 
 Cite as: Md. Aminul, I., Md. Golzare, N., Rafiun, N., & Md. Sharif, H. (2023). Implementing monetary policy with application of Sukuk: challenges and policy directions. Journal of Nusantara Studies, 8(2), 27-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol8iss2pp27-43

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.

The impossibility of the impossible trinity? The case of Indonesia

AbstractThe impossible trinity suggests that an economy cannot simultaneously achieve a fixed exchange rate, high capital mobility, and independent monetary policy without abandoning one of these. However, This paper looks at Indonesia’s experiences from the 2009 QE and the 2013 taper tantrum, considering why Indonesian policy-makers were unable to use policies as per the trilemma, and the policy implications of this. There are three possible reasons why Indonesia found it difficult to implement this trilemma policy choice: differing monetary policy objectives, volatile floating exchange rates, and balance sheet effects. The commodity supercycle also plays an exogenous role, unable to be overcome by monetary or exchange rate policy while at the same time impacting fiscal policy, income redistribution, trade balance, and the exchange rate. Overall, this paper argues that monetary policy on its own is likely to be insufficient to manage the economy adequately. Other levers and factors, such as macroprudential policy, fiscal policy, capital flow management, and institutional quality, are critical to make the policy choices more effective.