Aims/hypothesisHypoadiponectinaemia and raised C-reactive protein (CRP) level are obesity-related biomarkers associated with glucose dysregulation. We evaluated the combined use of these two biomarkers in predicting the deterioration of glycaemia in a prospective study after a median of 5.4 years.MethodsIn total 1,288 non-diabetic participants from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study-2, with high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) and total adiponectin levels measured were included. OGTT was performed in all participants. Two hundred and six participants had deterioration of glycaemia at follow-up, whereas 1,082 participants did not.ResultsBaseline age, hsCRP and adiponectin levels were significant independent predictors of the deterioration of glycaemia in a Cox regression analysis after adjusting for baseline age, sex, BMI, hypertension, triacylglycerols, 2 h post-OGTT glucose and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance index (all p < 0.01). The introduction of hsCRP or adiponectin level to a regression model including the other biomarker improved the prediction of glycaemic progression significantly in all participants, especially in women (all p < 0.01). The combined inclusion of the two biomarkers resulted in a modest improvement in model discrimination, compared with the inclusion of either one alone. Among participants with impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance (IFG/IGT) at baseline, hsCRP and adiponectin levels were not predictive of progression or improvement of glycaemic status.Conclusions/interpretationAdiponectin and hsCRP levels are independent factors in predicting the deterioration of glycaemia, supporting the role of adiposity-related inflammation in the development of type 2 diabetes. Their combined use as predictive biomarkers is especially useful in women, but not in participants with IFG/IGT.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-011-2227-0) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.
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