Obama's Reelection Research Articles

History and Primary: The Obama Reelection

Democrat Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin in the 2012 presidential election. This forecast comes from a statistical model that uses the primary performance of the candidates and a cycle in presidential elections to predict the presidential vote. In plain English, Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The model, called The Primary Model because of its heavy reliance on primaries, covers elections from 1912, the beginning of presidential primaries. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is used; we justify the choice of New Hampshire at some length.

President Obama and Gay Rights: The 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections

AbstractWe examine the role and potential impact of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) voters in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We look at trend data from 1990 to 2010 to assess the fluctuations in support for the Democratic Party by GLB voters, specifically a substantial decrease in support during the 2010 midterm elections. We use data from the 2008 election to assess the estimated contribution the GLB vote made toward President Obama's margin of victory in key battleground states. Looking at the Obama administration's record on gay rights, specifically the failure to pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), we argue that the Democratic Party could be held accountable in the 2012 election for their failure to provide protection from employment discrimination based on sexual orientation. Potentially the 2012 election will be closer than the 2008 race, highlighting the importance of the GLB vote to President Obama's reelection in key states. We argue that if President Obama incorporates strong support for ENDA into his reelection platform, the Democratic Party has the chance to recapture the GLB votes it lost in 2010 and maintain enough of the 2008 electoral votes that led to President Obama's victory.

Have President Obama's Re-Election Prospects Brightened?

Have the 2012 elections reached an inflection point? It's far too soon to say that the trajectory of this election has changed directions, but we are beginning to see enough indicators to suggest t...

Garnering the Vote, Obama 2012?: The Role of Social Media, Disappointment, and Mobilizing Minority Votes

This thesis explores the role of social networking and media on the 2008 Obama election. As well as looks at the potential for an Obama reelection utilizing technology and the role of base voter disappointment in the 2012 election, particularly among minority voters.