Purpose: 1. To identify patients who will progress to requiring total joint replacement (TJR) amongst a population with moderate-to severe-osteoarthritis (OA) by measuring tissue specific biomarkers in serum thus establishing a panel of prognostic biomarkers that may provide molecular insight into the mechanism and pathology of the progression of OA. 2. Investigate the effect of NSAIDs on the predictive and diagnostic serum profile. Methods: OA patients were randomly selected from clinical trials investigating the anti-NGF therapeutic antibody tanezumab. Serum samples from 240 patients who underwent a TJR (cases) and from 440 control OA patients who did not undergo TJR were used. Control group consisted of ∼2 patients per case matched on: age (<65 or ≥ 65 years), Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) grade, gender, BMI category (<30 or ≥30 kg/m2), OA severity (severe if both WOMAC Pain and Physical function subscale scores were ≥7 and the Patient Global Assessment score was ≥4 (i.e. Poor or Very Poor), otherwise baseline OA severity was classified as not severe). On the average, the OA population was 62 years old, 80% K-L grade ≥3, females (68%), BMI ∼31 kg/m2, WOMAC pain score of 7. Serum samples were analyzed for bone (Total Osteocalcin, CTX-I, DKK1, SOST), cartilage (C2M, COMP, PIIANP), connective tissue (PINP, ICTP, C1M), synovial tissue (C3M), protease burden (MMP-9) as well as inflammation markers (IL6, hsCRP, VEGF). Classification and Regression Tree analysis was used to identify biomarker phenotypes. Results: For NSAID and non-NSAID users separately, biomarker phenotypes were identified at baseline for patients predisposed for TJR. At baseline, a biomarker combination for patients who used NSAIDs before start of tanezumab clinical trials identified 96% of patients who underwent a TJR and 61% of the patients who did not undergo a TJR. Identification of these biomarker phenotypes lowers the odds of a TJR by 14-fold as compared to not having knowledge of the biomarkers. For patients who did not use NSAIDs, 83% of patients who had a TJR and 63% of the patients who did not undergo a TJR, were identified which lowers the odds of a TJR by 3.6-fold. For patients who used NSAIDs continuously, 84% of patients who had a TJR and 77% of the patients who did not have a TJR, were identified which lowers the odds of a TJR by 4.7-fold. Conclusions: Serological biomarker profiles for predicting TJR were identified irrespective of NSAID use and may assist in identifying those patients whom will need a TJR. The profiles also suggest that NSAID use increases the importance of the role of bone metabolism in TJR pathology. The results need validation on other cohorts, and may finally provide value to patients and payers in selecting the most optimal treatment strategy for moderate-to-severe OA patients.
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