O3 Predictions Research Articles

Predicting plateau atmospheric ozone concentrations by a machine learning approach: A case study of a typical city on the southwestern plateau of China

Atmospheric ozone (O3) has been placed on the priority control pollutant list in China's 14th Five-Year Plan. Due to their unique meteorological conditions, plateau regions contain high concentrations of atmospheric O3. However, traditional experimental methods for determining O3 concentrations using automatic monitoring stations cannot predict O3 trends. In this study, two machine learning models (a nonlinear auto-regressive model with external inputs (NARX) and a temporal convolution network (TCN)) were developed to predict O3 concentrations in a plateau area in the Kunming region by considering the effects of meteorological parameters, air quality parameters, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The plateau O3 prediction accuracy of the machine learning models was found to be much higher than those of numerical models that served as a comparison. The O3 values predicted by the machine learning models closely matched the actual monitoring data. The temporal distribution of plateau O3 displayed a high all-day peak from February to May. A correlation analysis between O3 concentrations and feature parameters demonstrated that humidity is the feature with the highest absolute correlation (−0.72), and was negatively correlated with O3 concentrations during all test periods. VOCs and temperatures were also found to have high positive correlation coefficients with O3 during periods of significant O3 pollution. After negating the effects of meteorological parameters, the predicted O3 concentrations decreased significantly, whereas they increased in the absence of NOx. Although individual VOCs were found to greatly affect the O3 concentration, the total VOC (TVOC) concentration had a relatively small effect. The proposed machine learning model was demonstrated to predict plateau O3 concentrations and distinguish how different features affect O3 variations.

Development of over 30-years of high spatiotemporal resolution air pollution models and surfaces for California

California’s diverse geography and meteorological conditions necessitate models capturing fine-grained patterns of air pollution distribution. This study presents the development of high-resolution (100 m) daily land use regression (LUR) models spanning 1989–2021 for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) across California. These machine learning LUR algorithms integrated comprehensive data sources, including traffic, land use, land cover, meteorological conditions, vegetation dynamics, and satellite data. The modeling process incorporated historical air quality observations utilizing continuous regulatory, fixed site saturation, and Google Streetcar mobile monitoring data. The model performance (adjusted R2) for NO2, PM2.5, and O3 was 84 %, 65 %, and 92 %, respectively.Over the years, NO2 concentrations showed a consistent decline, attributed to regulatory efforts and reduced human activities on weekends. Traffic density and weather conditions significantly influenced NO2 levels. PM2.5 concentrations also decreased over time, influenced by aerosol optical depth (AOD), traffic density, weather, and land use patterns, such as developed open spaces and vegetation. Industrial activities and residential areas contributed to higher PM2.5 concentrations. O3 concentrations exhibited no significant annual trend, with higher levels observed on weekends and lower levels associated with traffic density due to the scavenger effect. Weather conditions and land use, such as commercial areas and water bodies, influenced O3 concentrations.To extend the prediction of daily NO2, PM2.5, and O3 to 1989, models were developed for predictors such as daily road traffic, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)–NO2, monthly AOD, and OMI-O3. These models enabled effective estimation for any period with known daily weather conditions.Longitudinal analysis revealed a consistent NO2 decline, regulatory-driven PM2.5 decreases countered by wildfire impacts, and spatially variable O3 concentrations with no long-term trend. This study enhances understanding of air pollution trends, aiding in identifying lifetime exposure for statewide populations and supporting informed policy decisions and environmental justice advocacy.

A bivariate simultaneous pollutant forecasting approach by Unified Spectro-Spatial Graph Neural Network (USSGNN) and its application in prediction of O3 and NO2 for New Delhi, India

Declining urban air quality affects socioeconomic stability, public health, and ecosystems and is demanding attention of the administration to address environmental sustainability goals. Given the effects of ozone, a greenhouse gas, on local climate and health, this study introduces a Unified Spectro-Spatial Graph Neural Network (USS-GNN) designed for simultaneous 24-hour forecasting of ozone and its precursor, nitrogen-dioxide, while addressing their chemical interactions and spatiotemporal dynamics. This model exploits the graph structure of atmospheric dynamics and mines high-level spatial, spectral, and physical features from atmospheric data through a Dot Product Edge Attention mechanism and a location-aware graph feature rewiring technique. The proposed model is developed for Indian capital city New Delhi, utilizes hourly observations for the years 2021 and 2022 and achieved R2 values of 0.650 and 0.618, RMSE of 13.950 and 16.120 μg/m3, MAE of 10.730 and 12.930 μg/m3 for ozone and nitrogen-dioxide respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art models. The model’s forecast analysis identified error-prone areas, effects of local meteorology, and pollutant interdependencies. An ablation study further detailed the impacts of graph operations on forecasts. Moreover, this study promotes the utility of bivariate modeling frameworks in improving urban pollution monitoring and supporting sustainable city management through data-driven policy implementations.

Innovative approaches for accurate ozone prediction and health risk analysis in South Korea: The combined effectiveness of deep learning and AirQ+

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone (O3) poses significant health risks, particularly respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and mortality. This study addresses the pressing need for accurate O3 forecasting to mitigate these risks, focusing on South Korea. We introduce Deep Bias Correction (Deep-BC), a novel framework leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to refine hourly O3 forecasts from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Our approach involves training Deep-BC using data from 2016 to 2019, including CMAQ's 72-hour O3 forecasts, 31 meteorological variables from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and previous days' station measurements of 6 air pollutants. Deep-BC significantly outperforms CMAQ in 2021, reducing biases in O3 forecasts. Furthermore, we utilize Deep-BC's daily maximum 8-hour average O3 (MDA8 O3) forecasts as input for the AirQ+ model to assess O3's potential impact on mortality across seven major provinces of South Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon, Ulsan, and Sejong. Short-term O3 exposure is associated with 0.40 % to 0.48 % of natural cause and respiratory deaths and 0.67 % to 0.81 % of cardiovascular deaths. Gender-specific analysis reveals higher mortality rates among men, particularly from respiratory causes. Our findings underscore the critical need for region-specific interventions to address air pollution's detrimental effects on public health in South Korea. By providing improved O3 predictions and quantifying its impact on mortality, this research offers valuable insights for formulating targeted strategies to mitigate air pollution's adverse effects. Moreover, we highlight the urgency of proactive measures in health policies, emphasizing the significance of accurate forecasting and effective interventions to safeguard public health from the deleterious effects of air pollution.

Dominant mechanism underlying the explosive growth of summer surface O3 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

Despite the implementation of stringent emission reduction measures in China since 2013, ozone (O3) pollution remains a serious concern. Many O3 pollution processes are accompanied by the explosive growth of O3 concentration, meanwhile this explosive growth will trigger O3 pollution with a high probability. This study investigates the chemical and physical mechanisms behind the explosive growth of O3 in the summer within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on the atmospheric circulation clustering and WRF-CMAQ simulation. Ninety-four instances of O3 explosions from the summer of 2014–2021 were selected based on their day-to-day variation in O3 concentration, and the corresponding meteorological conditions were classified into four clusters using K-means analysis. Cluster 1 revealed that large-scale regional transmission of O3 and its precursors from the southern BTH region led to a renewed burst of O3 growth based on mild pollution. Nighttime reduction in NO2 concentration decreases titration consumption, causing a nocturnal rise in O3 concentration, detectable through observed data and progress analysis. In Cluster 2 and Cluster 3, the BTH region is located in the northeast wind area ahead of the ridge and northly wind area of post-trough situation, respectively. The vertical downward motion with the markable increase in surface solar radiation (SSR), 2-m temperature (T2M), and decrease in relative humidity (RH) contribute to photochemical O3 generation. Additionally, enhancements in boundary layer stability and reductions in dry deposition and vertical diffusion are favorable for the O3 accumulation. Cluster 4 showed the explosive growth after rainfall event, with the largest increment. The post-rain increase in SSR and T2M, coupled with decreased RH, promotes photochemical O3 formation. Moreover, progress analysis reveals the reduced cloud cover slows down O3 removal, contributing to O3 accumulation. The dominant mechanism behind the explosive growth of O3 will provide certain guidance for the prediction of O3.

Determination of major drive of ozone formation and improvement of O3 prediction in typical North China Plain based on interpretable random forest model

O3 pollution in China has become prominent in recent years, and it has become one of the most challenging issues in air pollution control. We used data on atmospheric pollutants and meteorology from 2019 to 2021 to build an interpretable random forest (RF) model, applying this model to predict O3 concentration in 2022 in five cities in the Southwest North China Plain. The model was also used to identify and explain the influence of various factors on O3 formation. The correlation coefficient R2 between the predicted O3 concentration and observed O3 concentration was 0.82, the MAE was 15.15 μg/m3, and the RMSE was 20.29 μg/m3, indicating that the model can effectively predict O3 concentration in the studying area. The results of correlation analysis, feature importance, and the driving factor analysis from SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model indicated that temperature (T), NO2, and relative humidity (RH) are the top three features affecting O3 prediction, while the weights of wind speed and wind direction were relatively low. Thus, O3 in the southwestern North China Plain may mainly come from the formation of local photochemical activities. The dominant factors behind O3 also varied in different seasons. In spring and autumn, O3 pollution is more likely to occur under high NO2 concentration and high-temperature conditions, while in summer, it is more likely to occur under high-temperature and precipitation-free weather. In winter, NO2 is the dominant factor in O3 formation. Finally, the interpretable RF model is used to predict future O3 concentration based on features provided by Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, and the simulation performance of CMAQ on O3 concentration is enhanced to a certain extent, improving the prediction of future O3 pollution situations and guiding pollution control.

Air Quality Class Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods Based on Monitoring Data and Secondary Modeling

Addressing the constraints inherent in traditional primary Air Quality Index (AQI) forecasting models and the shortcomings in the exploitation of meteorological data, this research introduces a novel air quality prediction methodology leveraging machine learning and the enhanced modeling of secondary data. The dataset employed encompasses forecast data on primary pollutant concentrations and primary meteorological conditions, alongside actual meteorological observations and pollutant concentration measurements, spanning from 23 July 2020 to 13 July 2021, sourced from long-term air quality projections at various monitoring stations within Jinan, China. Initially, through a rigorous correlation analysis, ten meteorological factors were selected, comprising both measured and forecasted data across five categories each. Subsequently, the significance of these ten factors was assessed and ranked based on their impact on different pollutant concentrations, utilizing a combination of univariate and multivariate significance analyses alongside a random forest approach. Seasonal characteristic analysis highlighted the distinct seasonal impacts of temperature, humidity, air pressure, and general atmospheric conditions on the concentrations of six key air pollutants. The performance evaluation of various machine learning-based classification prediction models revealed the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) classifier as the most effective, achieving an accuracy rate of 97.5% and an F1 score of 93.3%. Furthermore, experimental results for AQI prediction indicated the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model as superior, demonstrating a goodness-of-fit of 91.37% for AQI predictions, 90.46% for O3 predictions, and a perfect fit for the primary pollutant test set. Collectively, these findings affirm the reliability and efficacy of the employed machine learning models in air quality forecasting.

Current status of model predictions of volatile organic compounds and impacts on surface ozone predictions during summer in China

Abstract. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play a crucial role in the formation of tropospheric ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosols. VOC emissions are generally considered to have larger uncertainties compared to other pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Although predictions of O3 and PM2.5 have been extensively evaluated in air quality modeling studies, there has been limited reporting on the evaluation of VOCs, mainly due to a lack of routine VOC measurements at multiple sites. In this study, we utilized VOC measurements from the “Towards an Air Toxic Management System in China” (ATMSYC) project at 28 sites across China and assessed the predicted VOC concentrations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with the widely used Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). The ratio of predicted to observed total VOCs was found to be 0.74 ± 0.40, with underpredictions ranging from 2.05 to 50.61 ppbv (5.77 % to 85.40 %) at 24 sites. A greater bias in VOC predictions was observed in industrial cities in the north and southwest, such as Jinan, Shijiazhuang, Lanzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang. In terms of different VOC components, alkanes, alkenes, non-naphthalene aromatics (ARO2MN), alkynes, and formaldehyde (HCHO) had prediction-to-observation ratios of 0.53 ± 0.38, 0.51 ± 0.48, 0.31 ± 0.38, 0.41 ± 0.47, and 1.21 ± 1.61, respectively. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the impact of the VOC prediction bias on O3 predictions. While emission adjustments improved the model performance for VOCs, resulting in a change in the ratio of total VOCs to 0.86 ± 0.47, they also exacerbated O3 overprediction relative to the base case by 0.62 % to 6.27 % across the sites. This study demonstrates that current modeling setups and emission inventories are likely to underpredict VOC concentrations, and this underprediction of VOCs contributes to lower O3 predictions in China.

Updating Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) Emissions With Locally Measured Emission Factors in South China and the Effect on Modeled Ozone and Secondary Organic Aerosol Production

AbstractBiogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted from terrestrial plants contribute substantially to ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the troposphere. Accurate estimation of BVOC emissions is highly challengeable with a variety of uncertainties, one of which is the use of default emission factors (EFs) particularly for underrepresented regions without local data. In this study, locally measured BVOC‐EFs in south China, a subtropical region with abundant vegetation, were used to update regional BVOC emissions as estimated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). These EFs were recently determined in situ with characterized dynamic chambers for the emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes from tree species. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was then employed to see how much the regional O3 and SOA production is altered with the updated BVOC emissions. Results revealed lower BVOC emission estimates in south China when using the localized EFs than the MEGAN default ones, particularly for sesquiterpenes with a notable average reduction rate of approximately 40%. Using the updated BVOC emissions improved model O3 predictions in all seasons when compared to surface O3 monitoring, yet the lower BVOC emissions resulted in modeled O3 and SOA concentrations decreased by up to −6 ppb and −1.5 μg m−3, respectively, throughout south China. This study highlights the significance of localized EFs in refining emission estimates and air quality predictions in regions with a wealth of vegetation.

A Prediction Hybrid Framework for Air Quality Integrated with W-BiLSTM(PSO)-GRU and XGBoost Methods

Air quality issues are critical to daily life and public health. However, air quality data are characterized by complexity and nonlinearity due to multiple factors. Coupled with the exponentially growing data volume, this provides both opportunities and challenges for utilizing deep learning techniques to reveal complex relationships in massive knowledge from multiple sources for correct air quality prediction. This paper proposes a prediction hybrid framework for air quality integrated with W-BiLSTM(PSO)-GRU and XGBoost methods. Exploiting the potential of wavelet decomposition and PSO parameter optimization, the prediction accuracy, stability and robustness was improved. The results indicate that the R2 values of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 predictions exceeded 0.94, and the MAE and RMSE values were lower than 0.02 and 0.03, respectively. By integrating the state-of-the-art XGBoost algorithm, meteorological data from neighboring monitoring stations were taken into account to predict air quality trends, resulting in a wider range of forecasts. This strategic merger not only enhanced the prediction accuracy, but also effectively solved the problem of sudden interruption of monitoring. Rigorous analysis and careful experiments showed that the proposed method is effective and has high application value in air quality prediction, building a solid framework for informed decision-making and sustainable development policy formulation.

Importance of secondary decomposition in the accurate prediction of daily-scale ozone pollution by machine learning

Machine learning (ML) models have been proven as a reliable tool in predicting ambient pollution concentrations at various places in the world. However, their performance in predicting the maximum daily 8-h averaged ozone (MDA8 O3), the metric often used for O3 pollution assessment and management, is relatively poorer. This is largely resulted from more irregular data fluctuations of the MDA8 O3 levels governed collectively by the synoptic condition, local photochemistry, and long-range transport. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of MDA8 O3, this study developed a secondary decomposition ML model framework which coupled the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) as the primary decomposition, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) as secondary decomposition, and the gate recurrent unit (GRU) ML model. By applying this secondary decomposition model framework on MDA8 O3 prediction for the first time, we showed that the prediction accuracy of MDA8 O3 is largely improved from R2 of 0.46 and RMSE of 30.4 μg/m3 for GRU without decomposition to R2 of 0.91 and RMSE of 12.6 μg/m3 over the Pearl River Delta of China. We also found that the prediction accuracy rate of O3 pollution non-attainments, an essential indicator for initiating contingency O3 pollution control, improved greatly from 14.9 % for GRU without decomposition to 72.5 %. The performance of O3 pollution non-attainment prediction is relatively higher in southwestern PRD, which is mainly due to greater number and severity of O3 non-attainments in southwestern cities located downwind of the emission hotspot area at central PRD. This study underscored the importance of secondary decomposition in accurately predicting daily-scale O3 concentration and non-attainments over the PRD, which can be extended to other photochemically active region worldwide to improve their O3 prediction accuracy and assist in O3 contingency control.

Sensitivity of northeastern US surface ozone predictions to the representation of atmospheric chemistry in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0).

Chemical mechanisms describe how emissions of gases and particles evolve in the atmosphere and are used within chemical transport models to evaluate past, current, and future air quality. Thus, a chemical mechanism must provide robust and accurate predictions of air pollutants if it is to be considered for use by regulatory bodies. In this work, we provide an initial evaluation of the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMMv1.0) by assessing CRACMMv1.0 predictions of surface ozone (O3) across the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. CRACMMv1.0 O3 predictions of hourly and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone were lower than those estimated by the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism with aerosol module 6 (RACM2_ae6), which better matched surface network observations in the northeastern US (RACM2_ae6 mean bias of +4.2 ppb for all hours and +4.3 ppb for MDA8; CRACMMv1.0 mean bias of +2.1 ppb for all hours and +2.7 ppb for MDA8). Box model calculations combined with results from CMAQ emission reduction simulations indicated a high sensitivity of O3 to compounds with biogenic sources. In addition, these calculations indicated the differences between CRACMMv1.0 and RACM2_ae6 O3 predictions were largely explained by updates to the inorganic rate constants (reflecting the latest assessment values) and by updates to the representation of monoterpene chemistry. Updates to other reactive organic carbon systems between RACM2_ae6 and CRACMMv1.0 also affected ozone predictions and their sensitivity to emissions. Specifically, CRACMMv1.0 benzene, toluene, and xylene chemistry led to efficient NO x cycling such that CRACMMv1.0 predicted controlling aromatics reduces ozone without rural O3 disbenefits. In contrast, semivolatile and intermediate-volatility alkanes introduced in CRACMMv1.0 acted to suppress O3 formation across the regional background through the sequestration of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) in organic nitrates. Overall, these analyses showed that the CRACMMv1.0 mechanism within the CMAQ model was able to reasonably simulate ozone concentrations in the northeastern US during the summer of 2018 with similar magnitude and diurnal variation as the current operational Carbon Bond (CB6r3_ae7) mechanism and good model performance compared to recent modeling studies in the literature.

Development of a recurrent spatiotemporal deep-learning method coupled with data fusion for correction of hourly ozone forecasts

Ambient ozone (O3) predictions can be very challenging mainly due to the highly nonlinear photochemistry among its precursors, and meteorological conditions and regional transport can further complicate the O3 formation processes. The emission-based chemical transport models (CTM) are broadly used to predict O3 formation, but they may deviate from observations due to input uncertainties such as emissions and meteorological data, in addition to the treatment of O3 nonlinear chemistry. In this study, an innovative recurrent spatiotemporal deep-learning (RSDL) method with model-monitor coupled convolutional recurrent neural networks (ConvRNN) has been developed to improve O3 predictions of CTM. The RSDL method was first used to build the ConvRNN within a 24-h scale to characterize the spatiotemporal relationships between the monitored O3 data and CTM simulations, and then incorporated the recurrent pattern to achieve 72-h multi-site forecasts based on a pilot study over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. The results showed that the RSDL method predicted O3 with high accuracy over this case study, with an increase of 27.54% in the correlation coefficient (R) average for all sites as well as an increase in R of 0.14–0.21 for all cities compared to CTM. Moreover, the regional distribution of CTM was further improved by the RSDL predictions with the data fusion technique, which greatly reduced the underpredictions of O3 concentrations, particularly in high O3-level areas (concentrations >160 μg/m3), with a 33.55% reduction in the mean absolute error (MAE).

VAR-tree model based spatio-temporal characterization and prediction of O3 concentration in China

Ozone (O3) pollution in the atmosphere is getting worse in many cities. In order to improve the accuracy of O3 prediction and obtain the spatial distribution of O3 concentration over a continuous period of time, this paper proposes a VAR-XGBoost model based on Vector autoregression (VAR), Kriging method and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting). China is used as an example and its spatial distribution of O3 is simulated. In this paper, the O3 concentration data of the monitoring sites in China are obtained, and then a spatial prediction method of O3 mass concentration based on the VAR-XGBoost model is established, and finnally its influencing factors are analyzed. This paper concludes that O3 features the highest correlation with PM2.5 and the lowest correlation with SO2. Among the measurement factors, wind speed and temperature are the most important factors affecting O3 pollution, which are positively correlated to O3 pollution. In addition, precipitation is negatively correlated with 8-hour ozone concentration. In this paper, the performance of the VAR-XGBoost model is evaluated based on the ten-fold cross-validation method of sample, site and time, and a comparison with the results of XGBoost, CatBoost (categorical boosting), ExtraTrees, GBDT (gradient boosting decision tree), AdaBoost (adaptive boosting), RF (random forest), Decision tree, and LightGBM (light gradient boosting machine) models is conducted. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of the VAR-XGBoost model is better than other models. The seasonal and annual average R2 reaches 0.94 (spring), 0.93 (summer), 0.92 (autumn), 0.93 (winter), and 0.95 (average from 2016 to 2021). The data show that the applicability of the VAR-XGBoost model in simulating the spatial distribution of O3 concentrations in China performs well. The spatial distribution of O3 concentrations in the Chinese region shows an obvious feature of high in the east and low in the west, and the spatial distribution is strongly influenced by topographical factors. The mean concentration is clearly low in winter and high in summer within a season. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of regional O3 pollution in China, and can also provide new ideas for the acquisition of data on the spatial distribution of O3 concentrations within cities.

Comparing the Importance of Iodine and Isoprene on Tropospheric Photochemistry

AbstractIsoprene, arguably the most studied biogenically emitted gas, is thought to have a large impact on tropospheric composition. Other naturally emitted species have been considered to play a less important role. Here the GEOS‐Chem model is used to compare the impacts of isoprene and iodine emissions on present‐day tropospheric composition. Removing isoprene emissions leads to a 3.4% decrease in tropospheric O3 burden, a smaller absolute change than the 5.9% increase from removing iodine emissions. Iodine has a negligible impact on global mean OH concentrations and methane lifetime (+0.6% and +0.05%) whereas isoprene has a substantial impact on both (−4.3% and −4.2%). Isoprene emissions and chemistry are seen as essential for tropospheric chemistry models, but iodine is often not. We suggest that iodine should receive greater attention in model development and experimental research to allow improved predictions of past, present, and future tropospheric O3.

Different Approaches of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Model in Predicting Ozone (O3) Concentration in Industrial Area

Meteorological conditions and other gaseous pollutants generally impacted the development of ozone (O3) in the atmosphere.The purpose of this study was to create the best O3model for forecasting O3concentrations in the industrial area and to determine the variables that affect O3concentrations.Five-year data of meteorological and gaseous pollutants were used to analyze and develop the prediction model. Based on three distinct techniques, three separate multiple linear regression (MLR) prediction models of O3concentration were developed.MLR3had the highest correlation coefficient of 0.792 during development as compared to models MLR1and MLR2. MLR2was deemed the best O3 prediction model, however, since it had the lowest error values of root mean square error (3.976) and mean absolute error (3.548) when compared to other models.The establishment of an O3prediction model can offer local governments with early information that could help them reduce and manage air pollution emissions.

A hybrid deep learning model for regional O3 and NO2 concentrations prediction based on spatiotemporal dependencies in air quality monitoring network

Short-term prediction of urban air quality is critical to pollution management and public health. However, existing studies have failed to make full use of the spatiotemporal correlations or topological relationships among air quality monitoring networks (AQMN), and hence exhibit low precision in regional prediction tasks. With this consideration, we proposed a novel deep learning-based hybrid model of Res-GCN-BiLSTM combining the residual neural network (ResNet), graph convolutional network (GCN), and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), for predicting short-term regional NO2 and O3 concentrations. Auto-correlation analysis and cluster analysis were first utilized to reveal the inherent temporal and spatial properties respectively. They demonstrated that there existed temporal daily periodicity and spatial similarity in AQMN. Then the identified spatiotemporal properties were sufficiently leveraged, and monitoring network topological information, as well as auxiliary pollutants and meteorology were also adaptively integrated into the model. The hourly observed data from 51 air quality monitoring stations and meteorological data in Shanghai were employed to evaluate it. Results show that the Res-GCN-BiLSTM model was better adapted to the pollutant characteristics and improved the prediction accuracy, with nearly 11% and 17% improvements in mean absolute error for NO2 and O3, respectively compared to the best performing baseline model. Among the three types of monitoring stations, traffic monitoring stations performed the best for O3, but the worst for NO2, mainly due to the impacts of intensive traffic emissions and the titration reaction. These findings illustrate that the hybrid architecture is more suitable for regional pollutant concentration.

Updated Prediction of Air Quality Based on Kalman-Attention-LSTM Network

The WRF-CMAQ (Weather research and forecast-community multiscale air quality) simulation system is commonly used as the first prediction model of air pollutant concentration, but its prediction accuracy is not ideal. Considering the complexity of air quality prediction and the high-performance advantages of deep learning methods, this paper proposes a second prediction method of air pollutant concentration based on the Kalman-attention-LSTM (Kalman filter, attention and long short-term memory) model. Firstly, an exploratory analysis is made between the actual environmental measurement data from the monitoring site and the first forecast data from the WRF-CMAQ model. An air quality index (AQI) was used as a measure of air pollution degree. Then, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to fuse the actual environmental measurement data from the monitoring site and the first forecast results from the WRF-CMAQ model. Finally, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the attention mechanism is used as a single factor prediction model for an AQI prediction. In the prediction of O3 which is the main pollutant affecting the AQI, the results show that the second prediction based on the Kalman-attention-LSTM model features a better fitting effect, compared with the six models. In the first prediction (from the WRF-CMAQ model), for the RNN, GRU, LSTM, attention-LSTM and Kalman-LSTM, SE improved by 83.26%, 51.64%, 43.58%, 45%, 26% and 29%, respectively, RMSE improved by 83.16%, 51.52%, 43.21%, 44.59%, 26.07% and 28.32%, respectively, MAE improved by 80.49%, 56.96%, 46.75%, 49.97%, 26.04% and 27.36%, respectively, and R-Square improved by 85.3%, 16.4%, 10.3%, 11.5%, 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. However, the prediction results for the Kalman-attention-LSTM model proposed in this paper for other five different pollutants (SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and CO) all have smaller SE, RMSE and MAE, and better R-square. The accuracy improvement is significant and has good application prospects.

Assessing the ambient air quality patterns associated to the COVID-19 outbreak in the Yangtze River Delta: A random forest approach

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), first identified at the end of December 2019, has significant impacts on all aspects of human society. In this study, we aimed to assess the ambient air quality patterns associated to the COVID-19 outbreak in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region using a random forest (RF) model. To estimate the accuracy of the model, the cross-validation (CV), determination coefficient R2, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used. The results demonstrate that the RF model achieved the best performance in the prediction of PM10 (R2 = 0.78, RMSE = 8.81 μg/m3), PM2.5 (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 6.16 μg/m3), SO2 (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 0.70 μg/m3), NO2 (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 4.25 μg/m3), CO (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 0.4 μg/m3) and O3 (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 6.24 μg/m3) concentrations in the YRD region. Compared with the prior two years (2018–19), significant reductions were recorded in air pollutants, such as SO2 (−36.37%), followed by PM10 (−33.95%), PM2.5 (−32.86%), NO2 (−32.65%) and CO (−20.48%), while an increase in O3 was observed (6.70%) during the COVID-19 period (first phase). Moreover, the YRD experienced rising trends in the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and CO, while SO2 and O3 levels decreased in 2021–22 (second phase). These findings provide credible outcomes and encourage the efforts to mitigate air pollution problems in the future.

Fundamental oxidation processes in the remote marine atmosphere investigated using the NO–NO2–O3 photostationary state

Abstract. The photostationary state (PSS) equilibrium between NO and NO2 is reached within minutes in the atmosphere and can be described by the PSS parameter, φ. Deviations from expected values of φ have previously been used to infer missing oxidants in diverse locations, from highly polluted regions to the extremely clean conditions observed in the remote marine boundary layer (MBL), and have been interpreted as missing understanding of fundamental photochemistry. Here, contrary to these previous observations, we observe good agreement between PSS-derived NO2 ([NO2]PSS ext.), calculated from measured NO, O3, and jNO2 and photochemical box model predictions of peroxy radicals (RO2 and HO2), and observed NO2 ([NO2]Obs.) in extremely clean air containing low levels of CO (<90 ppbV) and VOCs (volatile organic compounds). However, in clean air containing small amounts of aged pollution (CO > 100 ppbV), we observed higher levels of NO2 than inferred from the PSS, with [NO2]Obs. / [NO2]PSS ext. of 1.12–1.68 (25th–75th percentile), implying underestimation of RO2 radicals by 18.5–104 pptV. Potential NO2 measurement artefacts have to be carefully considered when comparing PSS-derived NO2 to observed NO2, but we show that the NO2 artefact required to explain the deviation would have to be ∼ 4 times greater than the maximum calculated from known interferences. If the additional RO2 radicals inferred from the PSS convert NO to NO2 with a reaction rate equivalent to that of methyl peroxy radicals (CH3O2), then the calculated net ozone production rate (NOPR, ppbV h−1) including these additional oxidants is similar to the average change in O3 observed, within estimated uncertainties, once halogen oxide chemistry is accounted for. This implies that such additional peroxy radicals cannot be excluded as a missing oxidant in clean marine air containing aged pollution and that modelled RO2 concentrations are significantly underestimated under these conditions.