Both abiotic and biotic factors govern distributions of estuarine vegetation, and experiments can reveal effects of these drivers under current and future conditions. In upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), increased salinity could result from sea level rise, levee failure, or water management. We used mesocosms to test salinity effects on, as well as competition between, the native Stuckenia pectinata (sago pondweed) and invasive Egeria densa (Brazilian waterweed), species with overlapping distributions at the freshwater transition in SFE. Grown alone at a salinity of 5, E. densa decreased fivefold in biomass relative to the freshwater treatment and decomposed within 3 weeks at higher salinities. In contrast, S. pectinata biomass accumulated greatly (~4× initial) at salinities of 0 and 5, doubled at 10, and was unchanged at 15. When grown together in freshwater, S. pectinata produced 75 % less biomass than in monoculture and significantly more nodal roots (suggesting increased nutrient foraging). At a salinity of 5, a decline in E. densa performance coincided with a doubling of S. pectinata shoot density. Additional experiments on E. densa showed elevated temperature (26 and 30 °C) suppressed growth especially at higher salinities (≥5). We conclude that salinity strongly influences distributions of both species and that competition from E. densa may impose limits on S. pectinata abundance in the fresher reaches of SFE. With a salinity increase of 5, S. pectinata is likely to maintain its current distribution while spreading up-estuary at the expense of E. densa, especially if increased temperature also reduces E. densa biomass.