BackgroundIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a rare malignant tumor with a high incidence of recurrence after surgery. This study aims to identify the early recurrence (ER) risk factors in ICC and develop an ER predictive model for ICC. MethodA computerized search was performed in Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and PubMed to identify studies focusing on the risk factors associated with ER in ICC. Based on the results of the meta-analysis, an ER predictive model was developed and validated using an external cohort of patients diagnosed with ICC through postoperative pathological examinations who received curative-intent surgery at West China Hospital of Sichuan University. ResultsA total of 4,534 ICC patients from 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The results indicated that gender, preoperative serum level of CA199, CEA, tumor size, tumor number, differentiation, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, perineural invasion, lymph node metastasis, and AJCC T stage were ER risk factors for ICC. All risk factors were scored according to their weightings, and a risk predictive model was established. The area under the curve of the validation cohort was 0.902, indicating high predictive accuracy. Additionally, the calibration curve demonstrated that the predicted ER rate aligned well with the actual ER rate in the validation cohort. ConclusionThe predictive model accurately assesses the risk of ER in ICC patients undergoing surgical resection, providing valuable prognostic insights and guiding the tailoring of individualized treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.