Number Of Elections Research Articles

Купечество Вологодской губернии в структуре городского самоуправления в последней трети XIX века

The paper deals with the correlation between the proportion of merchants in the total urban population of the Vologda province in the second third of the XIX century and the degree of representation of the merchant class in local self-government after the approval of the Town Regulations in 1870 and then in 1892. Based on materials published in the “Vologda Provincial Gazette” in the 1870s–1890s, the share of the merchant class in the number of electors in the towns of the Vologda province and the share of the merchant class in the number of elected members of the municipal Dumas were calculated and summarized in tabular and graphical form. The results of the analysis not only confirmed the widespread participation of merchants both in electoral processes as voters and in local self-government bodies – municipal Dumas, but also revealed certain patterns. Thus, the more developed the town was in terms of trade and industry, the more representative was the share of merchants among the members of the Duma, even despite the modest share of the merchant class in the total population of the town. And, conversely, in towns where trade and industry were rather of local importance, the share of merchants among members of the municipal Dumas was only slightly higher than their share in the total population of the town. The changing role of the town in the economic life of the province was also reflected in the degree of representation of the merchant class in the municipal Duma.

Modernizing the Kenyan Electoral System through Polkadot Blockchain Network

The 2007/8 post-election violence in Kenya brought the nascent Kenyan democracy to the brink of collapse. It anachronistically demonstrated that old ways of managing elections were being antiquated by new realities, such as a growing population, the need for technological support, and the immediacy of a supportive electoral legal regime. A decade and a half after the posthumous murder of Kenyans during the 2007 disputed election, Kenya is leapfrogging and sauntering to establish a vibrant democracy, albeit with specific challenges. Firstly, the presidential elections have been disputed thrice after the promulgation of the constitution in 2010. And secondly, the allegation of voter fraud against the electoral body is imminent. Further, public trust in the electoral body is low and has been so since the advent of pluralism politics in 1991. Besides, the electoral body gets overwhelmed by the number of elections they manage during the general elections, and technological failures have been a significant impediment. Ostensibly, these challenges compound an existing problem of mistrust among political players and gather moss, especially during the period between the end of the voting exercise and the announcement of presidential results by the electoral body. Erstwhile, such a fragile situation manifested and threatened public safety after the 2013, 2017, and 2022 general elections. However, despite scepticism, the finality of the supreme court process as an arbitrator of the disputed presidential elections has played a role in quelling violence and settling such matters. In this article, the author argues that the maturation of digital democracies and the incorporation of blockchain technologies can modernize grassroots elections and resolve allegations of voter fraud.

The "Independent" State Legislature in Republican Theory

The independent state legislature theory provides that state legislatures are not constrained by their respective state constitutions in exercising the authority that the U.S. Constitution delegates to states over federal elections. In its most extreme form, the doctrine permits state legislatures, in overseeing the mechanics of federal elections, to disregard state court interpretations of state constitutions. Scholars have offered a number of criticisms of this doctrine, noting that it runs counter to the Founding Generation’s concerns about the lawlessness of state legislatures; is contrary to historical practice at the Founding; and undermines the constitutional structure in which the more democratically accountable Congress, rather than the states, is vested with final say over federal elections.
 This Article contributes to this growing literature by pointing to the constraints, centered in the constitutional text and history, that limit the ability of legislatures to disregard their state constitutions. Specifically, the Electors Clause of Article II, Section 1 provides, “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress . . . .” This text explicitly raises the question: Who is the “state” on behalf of which the legislature deploys power?
 Using this language as its jumping off point, this Article argues that the “state” referenced in Article II, Section 1 refers to its citizens, whose preferences are conveyed to the state legislature through the state’s electorate and in the state constitution. Within a decade of the Founding, the selection of officials by the state’s electorate became central to the theory of republicanism underlying the Guarantee Clause of Article IV, which predicated the legitimacy of government on majority support. By the adoption of the Twelfth Amendment, which changed the structure of presidential elections, political elites viewed republican government as requiring that state legislatures and, to a lesser extent, federal officials, be accountable to the people who elected them, accountability that prevented state legislatures from exercising their authority over federal elections in blatant disregard of the people’s wishes.
 The Article concludes that the independent state legislature theory, particularly in its strongest iteration, runs counter to the democratizing effect that the Twelfth Amendment was intended to have on presidential elections. The theory allows the state legislature to disregard the preferences of the people at a juncture in which they are exercising the oversight and accountability at the core of our system of republicanism: during the election of federal officials. Any version of the doctrine, if adopted, has to respect majoritarian preferences.

The System of US Presidential Election: Particularities, Problems of Functioning and Prospects for Transformation.

The article examines the level of democracy of the US presidential electoral system and the prospects for its transformation. In order to do this examination, considerable attention is paying on the main procedural aspects of the US presidential election, in particular, on the features of the organization of primary elections, popular voting and the expression of will of the Electoral College. Using general scientific, logical and empirical research methods, the weaknesses and strengths of the US presidential electoral system are analyzed. For instance, the disproportion of the representation of American states in the Electoral College, as well as the disproportion between the number of votes and the number of electors as a factor of two-level electoral distortions are considered. The authors argue that the issue is relevant due to the emergence of political instability in the United States, which is related to the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and its non-recognition by part of American society and the defeated candidate, which provoked domestic social and political instability and negatively affected the international image of the USA. The study concluded that the electoral system used during the US presidential election, despite some positive aspects, can be partially interpreted as undemocratic, with the existing disproportion of representation, and therefore needs to be reformed and has enough prospects and ways for it. Ways to minimize shortcomings and prospects for the transformation of the US presidential electoral system are identified. The authors emphasize that the main problem is the choice of the most rational option for reforming the US presidential electoral system, which will not lead to an even greater socio-political crisis in the United States.

Disengaging elections? Political interest, number of elections, and turnout in elections to the European Parliament

Since direct elections to the European Parliament began in 1979, variations in voting behavior in European Parliament elections from national elections have raised interesting questions about political behavior. I add to a growing literature that explores turnout in European Parliament elections by focusing on the count of national elections between European Parliament elections. Through a cross-national study of elections, I find that turnout decreases in the European Parliament contest following cycles with numerous national contests. Then, using data from the European Election Study, I argue that this is the result of frequent elections decreasing turnout particularly among already low interest voters who stay home. My findings have implications for how formal rules of multi-level elections shape political behavior more generally and voter fatigue in particular.

ЧИННИКИ НАБУТТЯ ОСОБИСТІСТЮ СОЦІАЛЬНОГО СТАТУСУ В МАЛІЙ ГРУПІ В КОНТЕКСТІ ДОЗВІЛЛЯ

The article presents the main results of an empirical study of the factors of personal acquisition of social status in a small group in the field of leisure. Reflecting the position of the individual in the system of society, the social status of the individual is determined by the set of rights and responsibilities of the individual in the context of social ties, groups and systems. Thus, social status is a component that simultaneously affects the individual, and which, in some way, depends on the individual. Since social status is a complex and multicomponent phenomenon, it was possible to determine its socio-psychological component structure. Social status was studied through sociometric positions of respondents. The entire sample was divided into 4 groups depending on the number of elections: neglected, rejected, accepted, stars. It was found that the factors of social status in the permissive context are the acceptance of others, the psychological climate of the team, focus on the present, social approval, lack of normative behavior (conformity). Factors of social status in the working context are personal characteristics and features of group dynamics, so it should be taken into account in combination with individual psychological characteristics. Factors of each social status for separate social groups were also singled out. The social status of the individual is an important component of the social life of every person. Its main function is to organize, design, regulate and conduct groups and their members. In the leisure environment for a group of technical professional orientation, the factors of acquiring social status for certain groups are the following characteristics: neglected – group cohesion, unaccepted – socio-psychological adaptation, accepted – the tendency to affiliation, stars – acceptance of others; for the group of humanitarian professional orientation: neglected – acceptance of others, unaccepted – group cohesion, accepted – the psychological climate of the group, the stars – emotional comfort.

Inequality and voting in Italy’s regions

ABSTRACT In the last 20 years Italy has experienced major political upheavals, which have been explained by a variety of political and social processes. This paper analyses the role played by economic conditions in a period of stagnation and widespread impoverishment. The evolution of voting in Italy’s general elections from 1994 to 2018 is investigated at the regional level, exploring the role of inequality, changes in incomes, wealth levels and the precarization of jobs and unemployment. Using a novel regional database combining voting results, incomes of employees, and household revenues and wealth, we explore the drivers of non-voting, and of the shares of votes for mainstream parties, the Lega, and the Five Star Movement in the total number of electors. The results of our econometric models show that inequality, lack of wealth and precarization are closely associated with the regional patterns of Italy’s electoral change. While political, ideological and cultural variables are important factors in Italy’s political upheavals, we find that a key played has been played by inequality and economic conditions.

An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections

Bellwethers have been studied for decades in the realm of election forecasting. Presidential election forecasting has historically focused on the study of bellwethers at the level of the state, likely due to the fact that presidential candidates win electoral college votes based upon the winner of the popular vote in each state. However, states can be difficult to study due to their large sizes and diverse political environments, leading these authors to examine whether bellwethers can also be studied at the finer resolution of individual counties. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of elections in which each county voted for the winner of the election. Counties with the highest bellwether scores were also disproportionately found in the Midwest and in the Northeast.

The effect of candidate electoral experience on ballot placement in list proportional representation systems

This article investigates how candidate experience in previous elections, measured by the number of prior candidacies, affects ballot placement in list PR systems. The central argument is that selectorates find experienced candidates attractive because of proven loyalty and higher voter recognition. Moreover, prior candidacies strengthen candidates’ familiarity with intra-party selection processes. Returning candidates, however, also risk becoming victims of a seniority trap: after not succeeding to access realistic positions after a number of elections, additional candidacies become harmful as selectorates lose interest. Using data on 18,393 candidacies by 9,905 candidates of parties in Flanders (Belgium) (1987–2019), a set of logit and Cox models test the hypothesised curvilinear effect of prior candidacies on access to realistic positions. Both approaches lead to similar outcomes, confirming that experience positively affects ballot placement but with decreasing marginal utility. These findings have important implications for career strategies and contribute to knowledge on nomination processes and candidate turnover.

Pandemic democracy: elections and COVID-19

This article provides an initial assessment of the many risks posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on the conduct of genuine and transparent elections in the world. It begins with explaining why elections are a vital part of democracy, and then using the notion of the electoral cycle, constructs a risk matrix that assesses the relative impact and likelihood of risks to the cycle, as well as proposes a number of potential mitigations to these risks. The variety and number of elections, dimensions of the electoral cycle that can be disrupted, and the need for solutions raises significant questions about the future of democracy itself.

Goal programming approach for political districting in Santa Catarina State: Brazil

In the Brazilian judiciary, the Electoral Registry Offices (EROs) are responsible for managing the Brazilian electoral districts. Moreover, not only do they organize elections in their district, but they are also responsible for managing the registration of electors and supervising the political parties. Brazil has a multi-party system with more than 35 political parties competing over the 295 cities of Santa Catarina state, which had over 4.98 million voters in 2017. In this context, we present a mixed integer model, with the concepts of goal programming and contiguity graph, to propose a more equilibrated distribution of political districts to Santa Catarina state. The mathematical model considers the political districting criteria (population balance, spatial contiguity, and compactness), and also considers the particularities of the Brazilian electoral system (minimum number of voters in an electoral district, maximum electoral zones per city, and so forth). The objective of the problem is to determine the optimum set of districts for the most efficient use of public resources and best service to the population. Therefore, there must be a balance of workload among the (EROs), i.e., a steady number of electors and nominating petitions per district. The solution proposed succeeded in presenting a set of districts with a better workload distribution while respecting all the districting criteria and the Brazilian legislation. Compared to the current situation, the model shows a reduction in the standard deviation of the electorate distribution per district of 7520 voters. The solution obtained by the proposed model for the Brazilian electoral system in the state of Santa Catarina may be used by any other of the 26 Brazilian states. The proposed model is a particularization of the classic political districting problem since it inserts complementary constraints to this classic problem from the operational research literature.

Five Laws of Politics: A Follow-Up

ABSTRACTIn this follow-up to “Five Laws of Politics,” I show that the original estimates of electoral outcomes describing the five “laws” hold up with twice the number of elections and three times as many countries as in the original article. The analysis yields long-run equilibrium values for several electoral parameters that set limits to incumbent support in a democracy. The evidence lends additional support to the notion that elections in democracies appear as if governed by “laws of politics.”

BEHAVIOR REACTIONS CHARACTERISTIC OF THE INDIVIDUALS WITH EGOISTIC AND ALTRUISTIC TYPE OF SOCIAL BEHAVIOR

Different types of social behavior are characterized by different behavioral reactions. Characteristics of selfish and altruistic social behavior are not clearly confirmed by the data of psychophysiological studies. Therefore, the purpose of the work is to identify the peculiarities of behavioral reactions of individuals with more expressed egoistic and altruistic social behavior, which are based on data of electroencephalographic research. 120 (aged 21±4 years) individuals took part in the study. As a result of complex psychological testing (based on Leary’s test) all subjects were divided into two groups - altruistic and egoistic. Registration of electrical activity was carried out in a model of collective interaction using the Stag Hunt Game and a specially developed model of social behavior Mini-Basketball. The number of elections for egoistic and altruistic stimulus and the reaction time to them were observed in the study. The stimulus "Rabbit" and "Throw" were considered as egoistic; “Stag" and "Pass" - as altruistic in accordance with the test methods. As a result, the frequency of choosing the type of stimuli corresponds to the social orientation of the individuals. The reaction time increases with the choice of the type of stimulus, which does not coincide with the type of social orientation of the subject.

2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

General elections are held every five years in South Africa. During the 12 to 24 hour period after the close of the voting booths, the expected final results are of huge interest to the electorate and politicians. In the past, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has developed an election forecasting model in order to provide the media and political analysts with forecasts of the final results during this period of peak interest. In formulating this model, which forecasts the election results as the results from voting districts (VDs) become available, some assumptions had to be made. In particular, assumptions were made about the clustering of previous voting patterns as well as the order in which VD results are released. This election forecasting model had been used successfully for a number of elections in the past and in these previous elections, with around 5%-10% of the results available, the predictions produced by the model were very close to the final outcome, particularly for the ANC, being the largest party. For the 2014 national election, however, the predictions, with close to 50% of the voting district results known (equivalent to an estimated 40% of the total votes), were still not accurate and varied by more than 1% for both the ANC and the EFF. This paper outlines a post-election analysis to determine the reasons for these discrepancies and how they relate directly to the model assumptions. The aim is to highlight how practical realities can affect the assumptions and consequently their impact on the forecasted results. Reference is made to previous election forecasts and the 2014 post-election analysis is presented.

Dual Cluster Head Algorithm for Proficient Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks

Objectives: In cluster based algorithms, the group head needs to do the transmission, gathering, aggregation, collection and the timing administration. Due to this the head of the cluster will lose its energy rapidly and another head ought to be found. A new election process creates unwelcome control message movement in that particular network. The main objective is to reduce the number of elections hence the wastage of energy can be minimized. Methods/Statistical Analysis: To reduce the number of election we propose our model Dual Cluster Head Protocol (DCH). The key idea is to have a group head and sub group head, where the work load will be shared between them. The sub head will perform the information gathering and aggregation inside the cluster and it will report just to the main cluster head. The clusters will be managed by the Sub-Cluster Head (SCH) node, but the session management will be carried out by the cluster head. All the outward communications will be carried out by main cluster head; also it relays the information from other heads. Findings: Our algorithm uses lesser amount of control messages than other conventional algorithms since the number of cluster head re-elections is reduced. The performance of the algorithm matches with protocols like LEACH and SEECH. We have used 3 scenarios for testing the protocol; in the first scenario with 100 nodes DCH protocol performed 31% better than SEECH and 86% better than LEACH. In second scenario with 400 nodes DCH protocol performed 6% better than SEECH and 20% better than LEACH. In third scenario with 1000 nodes DCH protocol performed 38% better than LEACH but fell short of 45% when compared with SEECH. Application/Improvements: Right now the algorithm performs well in low and medium density sensor fields. It can be improved to work efficiently in high density sensor fields. The comparison can be made with newer protocols like HEED

Fewer voters, higher stakes? The applicability of rational choice for voter turnout in Quebec municipalities

Municipal voter turnout is often considered to be a function of electorate size. According to the rational choice theory of voter behavior, a rational voter is more inclined to abstain in the presence of larger electorates, and more likely to participate in smaller ones. This article examines the impact of electorate size on voter turnout using a multivariate regression model to explain voter participation in Quebec municipalities in the 2009 and 2013 local elections ( N = 1040). Several other assumptions pertaining to the rational voter are also tested. We find that rational choice theory explains 45% of municipal voter participation in these Quebec elections and that it supports the probability of pivotal voting. Our analysis also confirms that the number of electors, number of mayoral candidates, tax rate, presence of a political party, and incumbency have different effects on participation in small and large municipalities.

The Sale of Edited Electoral Registers in Scotland: Implications for Privacy, Data Protection and Citizenship

This article provides an assessment of the recent phenomenon in Scotland and the United Kingdom of selling edited electoral registers to third parties, and reflects on the implications of this practice for privacy, data protection and citizen-state relations. Drawing on the results of the National Survey of Electoral Registration Officers in Scotland, information is presented on the sale of edited registers, the types of organisation purchasing registers, revenues generated and the number of electors ‘opting out’ of the edited register. This is the first time such information has been collected nationally and therefore represents a unique Scottish ‘snapshot’. The article argues that the sale of edited registers is contentious. The collection of personal information contained within the register is critical for the successful functioning of elections and consequently our representative democratic system, yet the subsequent unrestricted sale of this information for commercial gain potentially undermines trust in democratic processes and alters the informational nature of citizen-state relations. This article offers a first opportunity to reflect on some of the consequences of this practice.

The political roots of domestic environmental sabotage

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we demonstrate that when environmentalist niche parties compete in a given constituency over a number of elections, but continually fail to win seats, then environmental sabotage becomes more frequent in that constituency. When mainstream tactics fail, radical tactics are used more frequently. Using a new data-set on the success rates of all Green Party candidates in US states, we show that environmental sabotage occurs more often when Green Party candidates fail to win even minor offices. This is true even when we control for other political expressions of environmentalism, such as interest group activity, and when we define ‘success’ through votes not seats. We discuss the implications of this for environmental politics, for social movements and democracy, and for political violence in the US.

Peculiarities of legal regulation of political parties participation in regional and municipal elections in Russia and foreign countries

The majority of modern democratic states recognize political parties as a necessary element of implementation of the rule of the people (democracy). Therefore, they should be provided with the opportunity to be represented in elected bodies of the government. The theory and practice of representative democracy are inexhaustible sources for researchers, as well as the historical process of continuous search for new forms of the most harmonious coexistence of the state and law, the citizen (their associations) and the government. Political parties are independent from the state. Political parties activity work within the territory of the whole country. Any political party is founded to assert power in a legitimate way by means of elections. Both in Russia and in other countries political parties are key participants of electoral legal relations. The main tendency of the contemporary Russian electoral legislature is the expansion of the foundations of participation of political parties in the elections held not only at the federal level, but also at regional and municipal levels. The real proof of the increasing role of political parties in the electoral process is the growing number of elections held on the basis of the distribution of seats between party lists in proportion to the number of votes cast. The federal legislation reform carried out in 2012 became the basis of this process. The experience of application of foreign laws offering a variety of forms of legal regulation of regional branches and structures of political parties has evolved. In addition to the general guidelines in the sphere of elections and generally accepted unified election standards, each state finds its own distinctive way to ensure democratic, legitimate elections. The article addresses controversial issues of the electoral process, legal regulation of political parties and their branches, etc

Scottish Shire Elections: Preliminary Findings in Sheriff Court Books

Historians of the Scottish parliament have paid little attention to shire elections because of an apparent lack of local source material. This article explores some of the reasons for this perception and argues that sheriff court records contain considerably more evidence than has been appreciated hitherto. It demonstrates that these records provide details of the electoral process, the regularity of elections, the numbers of electors, external interference in elections and internal divisions within the electorate, local responses to national political events, and attitudes to representation through such things as levying taxes locally to reimburse representatives’ expenses. It challenges the once widely‐held view that the lesser nobility, who comprised the electorate, were uninterested in parliamentary participation, suggesting instead that the statute of 1587, by which shire representation was established, was reasonably successful. Finally, it considers the potential for further research in these and other records which, it is argued, will provide a much deeper understanding of 17th‐century Scotland's parliamentary history in particular and political history in general.