Number Of Shoes Research Articles

Prediction of footwear demand using Prophet and SARIMA

In an increasingly globalized market, where world container traffic since 2000 has almost quadrupled, the prediction of demand is an element of great importance for the optimal business development of a company. This work focuses on demand forecasting in the fashion sector. It is a very volatile market, with some characteristics such as: seasonality, culture and fashion trends, that makes it difficult to estimate the inter-seasonal footwear demand. In recent years, many algorithms for the prediction of demand have been studied; they can be divided into three natures: statistical algorithms, artificial intelligence algorithms and hybrid algorithms, each of them with its own characteristics. AI-generated predictions provide business professionals with the ability to organize the purchase of materials, manage production processes and stock quantity. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to forecast the long-term sales of a highly seasonal footwear model based on its historical data, using the Prophet and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) algorithms. This represents a novelty as sales predictions for footwear in the state of the art are not typically made over the long term or highly seasonal, and there is no model that clearly outperforms others. Additionally, a set of Key Performance Indicators has been established to evaluate the prediction outcomes, as the same indicators such as MAE, MAPE and RMSE are commonly used in the state of the art. Furthermore, a relational database structure has been proposed for the organized storage of future predictions. Finally, the results between Prophet and SARIMA have been compared to ascertain whether Prophet (a non-linear statistical algorithm) outperforms SARIMA (a linear statistical algorithm). In the model prediction Prophet obtains an accuracy of 98.8% and a 158.8 MAE, while SARIMA reaches an accuracy of 93% and a 83.9 MAE; all in all really positive results taking into account long-term prediction and high seasonality. It has been observed how Prophet provides better results when it comes to predicting results of annual quantities, for example, the number of shoes that are expected to be sold next year. However, SARIMA returns better results for those KPI that are calculated considering the monthly distribution of the prediction, as well as being 15 times faster in the mean prediction time.

Prevalence of podoconiosis and its associated factors in Gamo zone, Southern Ethiopia, 2021

BackgroundPodoconiosis is a chronic non-infectious preventable disease. Though not fatal, it may cause social, economic and physical disability. Ethiopia is projected to bear one-fourth (25%) of the global burden of podoconiosis. Despite its huge economic impact and chronic morbidity and disability, podoconiosis seems to be neglected. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of podoconiosis and its associated factors in Gamo zone, Southern Ethiopia.MethodsA community based cross sectional study was conducted among 683 household members. A multistage sampling method was used to select study participants. Binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with podoconiosis. Odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was computed to determine the level of significance; in multivariable analysis, variables with a P value less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant.ResultsThe prevalence of podoconiosis was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.3–8%). The significantly contributed factors for the prevalence of podoconiosis were wealth index (AOR = 0.249, 95%CI = 0.073–0.845), number of shoes owned (AOR = 6.199, 95% CI = 1.281–29.98), times when individual do not wear shoes (AOR = 2.448, 95%CI = 1.041–5.754), soap utilization during foot washing (AOR = 2.773, 95%CI = 1.210–6.355) and family history of leg swelling (AOR = 4.69, 95%CI = 2.215–9.935).ConclusionsThis study showed that there was significant burden of podoconiosis in the study area. Wealth index, times when individual do not wear shoes, number of shoes owned, soap utilization during foot washing, and family history of leg swelling were significantly associated with podoconiosis. It is recommended to practice secondary prevention which includes regular foot hygiene and wearing shoes, and the use of antiseptic soaks.

Foot care practice and associated factors among patients with lymphoedema in Boreda district, Gamo zone, southern Ethiopia, 2020. Implications for elimination of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis

BackgroundLymphatic filariasis is ranked as the second leading cause of disability world-wide. The current global programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis is based on the interruption of transmission and the alleviation of disability and suffering.Objectiveto assess foot care practice and associated factors among lymphoedema patients in Boreda district, Gamo zone Southern Ethiopia.Methodsa community based cross sectional study was employed from December 2020 to June 2021 in Boreda district. Simple random sampling technique was used for selecting participants. Pretested structured interviewer administered questionnaire was prepared in English and translated to local language.Findingsa total of 280 lymphedema patients were involved in this study. More than half 153 (54.6%) had poor practice towards foot care practice with 95% CI (48.7, 60.4%). Patients who fetched 50 l of water or below and wore shoes at the age above 20 years were negatively associated with foot care practice, (AOR = 0.383, 95%CI: 0.155, 0.945) and (AOR = 0.261, 95%CI: 0.107, 0.63), respectively. Patients who owned only one pair and two pairs were negatively associated with foot care practice (AOR = 0.04, 95%CI: 0.009, 0.182) and (AOR = 0.27, 95%CI: 0.087, 0.85), respectively. On the other hand, attending LMMDP service and frequency of adenolymphangitis once and twice or more per month were positively associated with foot care practice (AOR = 3.339, 95%CI: 1.53, 7.285) and (AOR = 8.15, 95% CI: 3.157, 21.058) and (AOR = 9.35, 95% CI: 3.118, 28.059), respectively.Conclusionthis study indicated foot care practice among lymphedema patients in Boreda district was poor. Number of litre of water collected per day, age at which footwear first worn, number of shoes owned, attending LMMDP and frequency of adenolymphangitis were significantly associated with foot care practice. Standard foot care practice should be emphasized to control progression of lymphedema. Foot care practices like skin care, exercise and elevation, washing legs, bandaging and massaging are important factors that influence in reduction of lymphedema volume and acute attacks among people who are suffering from the diseases.

Number of Shoes Tested During a Running Shoe Mass Perception Task May Not Influence Accuracy

Commercially available running shoes differ in terms of their relative masses. It is unclear how well consumers may be able to judge mass differences from wearing alone, though previous studies suggest that perceptual outcomes may be influenced by experimental design factors such as the length of time worn. The purpose of this study was to investigate how the number of shoes used in a testing session impacts wearers' mass perceptual accuracy. Forty-eight young adult males ran for 5 min in 4 pairs of shoes (their own running shoes plus 3 unfamiliar pairs) before being asked whether an unfamiliar running shoe was heavier or lighter than their own, and to indicate perceptions of shoe heaviness (mass), comfort, stability, and temperature using visual analogue scales (VAS). A subset (n=18) was also asked to provide global rank orderings after wearing all 4 pairs of shoes. Participants were 67% accurate in the heavier/lighter task and 64% accurate in the global rank order task. Global rank order scores and VAS heaviness marks were significantly and positively correlated. Mass accuracy scores (n=48) were then compared to a previous study (n=25) performed by the same investigators using the same methods but with 6 pairs of shoes instead of 4. No difference in accuracy scores for either the heavier/lighter comparisons or global rank order scores between the study populations was found, suggesting that the number of test shoes may not influence mass perception accuracy.

Association between the Foot Posture Index and running related injuries: A case-control study

BackgroundNovice runners are at significantly greater risk of running-related injuries than experienced recreational runners. To develop prevention strategies for this population, it is important to identify predisposing factors that contribute to the incidence of these injuries. This study aims to assess the relationship between running-related injuries, foot posture and other factors in novice runners. MethodsCase-control study in 600 novice runners, classified as cases or controls based on incidence of running-related injuries. Participants' foot posture was measured using the Foot Posture Index, and we performed a descriptive analysis of the explanatory variables, comparing cases and controls. To assess the association between the injury and the presence of exposure and other explanatory variables, we performed a simple logistic regression for each variable and then fit a multivariable regression model. FindingsOur regression model showed that high supination was associated with 76.8 times higher odds of injury than a neutral Foot Posture Index score (P < 0.001). High pronation was associated with 20-fold higher odds of injury than neutral foot posture (P < 0.001). Other variables such as running surface, number of shoes used, and body mass index were also associated with injury. The model showed an acceptable predictive capacity, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.7753. InterpretationIf the association between Foot Posture Index and running-related injury is confirmed in large prospective studies, running programs for beginners should consider foot posture in efforts to prevent running-related injuries.

Aristotle: Reciprocity in Exchange is Not Equity (Presentation Slides)

Among some scholars of Aristotelian justice there is the conviction that in the Nicomachean Ethics (NE V,5) Aristotle propagated reciprocity as “true justice in exchange”. But in fact Aristotle wrote there explicitly: in many cases “reciprocity is at variance with Justice”. The paper deals with this contradiction. It builds on Ambrosi’s recent article on “Aristotle’s geometrical accounting” ( https://ssrn.com/abstract=2419927). It explains Aristotle’s seemingly strange statement: “[As] builder is to a shoemaker, so must such and such a number of shoes be to a house”. This expresses a formal economic relation, not an ethical postulate. When this formalism is enhanced by considerations of equity, only then do ethical considerations come in. Conclusion: Reciprocity is not justice in exchange if it lacks equity.

Servo Shoe Brake Calculations

IT appears from published work on brakes that no general theoretical basis has been presented on which the problem of the servo shoe brake can be studied, though empirical procedures have been used and special cases have been examined analytically. In this essay a simple theory is presented for dealing with brakes having any number of shoes; in it the pressure distribution on any shoe is a function of the conditions of equilibrium, of the system and of simple assumptions which it is thought will be generally acceptable. By means of this theory, the effects of variations in the factors involved in servo shoe brake design can be investigated, and it is hoped that it may consequently prove useful to brake designers.