Number Of Road Fatalities Research Articles

The impact of the Covid -19 pandemic on the frequency of vehicle accidents in Poland

This article analyzes the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the intensity of road accidents in Poland. The pandemic affected not only the health of citizens, but also their preferences in terms of communication. It significantly inhibited the mobility of the society and increased the capacity of urban traffic during the rush hour of some cities. The article contains statistics on the number of road accidents that occurred in 2011-2021 and the number of people who died as a result of these accidents. The period from 2019 to 2021 was subjected to a detailed analysis in this respect. It was observed that during this period there was a significant decrease in the number of road accidents as well as a significant 30% decrease in people fatalities on the road. Such a large decline has not been recorded so far since Poland joined the European Union. The article presents a forecast of the number of people fatalities in road accidents in Poland in the years 2022-2030 (taking into account the pandemic period), which predicts an annual decline in the number of road fatalities by 7%. This article emphasizes that the duration of the Covid-19 virus pandemic should be treated as a transitional period. The decreasing number of road accidents as well as the number of fatalities in road accidents over the next years may change and their annual downward trend may not be maintained.

Road Safety Development and Economic Growth in China From 1979 to 2018

Road safety development is affected by both motorization rates and economic growth. This phenomenon is studied using the Kuznets curve model, which uses data such as the number of road fatalities, the population, the number of vehicles, and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, all of which are verified by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. The results showed that there were strong links between road safety development and economic growth in China. As GDP per capita rose from 1979 to 2018, the number of vehicles per person increased and the number of fatalities per vehicle decreased, producing a relationship that followed an N-shaped curve. However, in 2002, the relationship between the road mortality rate and GDP per capita followed an inverted U-shaped curve; the point at which this happened in the Kuznets curve was the turning point for road safety performance in China. Thus, road mortality rates increased as GDP per capita increased, but declined once GDP per capita exceeded 17 187 CNY. The analysis that stems from the results of the Kuznets curve model is consistent with the performance evaluation derived from the DEA-based road safety model. The findings could provide an important reference for policymakers to improve road safety under harsh economic conditions.

Utilization of the information sharing road safety measure in developing Countries: Case study of Suphanburi, Thailand

Despite decades of road safety efforts, it is a big question why the number of road fatalities in developing countries has not been reduced. One of the reasons for the ineffectiveness of road safety measures is the lack of cooperation and information sharing between the concerned agencies. This study examined the utilization of the “information sharing road safety measure” based on a successful case in Kamagaya City, Japan. By cooperating with local authorities and the community, the current status and implementation issues of road safety measures under a local context were identified/extracted, especially by utilizing an engineering approach as the main part of the “information sharing road safety measure” study. Suphanburi Province, Thailand, was selected for a case study. The results showed that to successfully implement the “information sharing road safety measure,” its continuation and consistency are essentially required. Furthermore, an engineering approach for identifying risk and black spots by the local community can help in clarifying the causes of accidents in the targeted areas. The cooperation and participation of stakeholders from government sectors, i.e., municipality, police, schools, residents/communities, academic sector, and the private sector, play a key role in disseminating and sharing information regarding road safety and selecting appropriate road safety measures to suit the local contexts.

International analysis on social and personal determinants of traffic violations and accidents employing logistic regression with elastic net regularization

While the number of road fatalities is declining in developed countries, it is still increasing globally, especially in middle-and low-income countries. In addition to the driver's individual awareness and attitude toward traffic safety, various factors such as the development of road infrastructure and the legal system may have a significant influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Thus, it is essential to consider these factors to enhance traffic safety and achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets of 3.6.In this study, we developed an Elastic Net Regression model to evaluate the factors that influence an individual's traffic violations and accidents based on an international questionnaire on traffic safety attitude, country fact survey data on traffic regulations, and other statistical databases. As a result, it was revealed that: i) In addition to country-level factors, the individual's attributes and attitudes toward traffic safety have an influence on the experience of traffic violations and accidents. and ii) While the same variables regarding individual attributes and attitudes are selected for both traffic violations and accidents, the selected variables relating to country factors differ between violations and accidents.

Vision-Based Driver’s Cognitive Load Classification Considering Eye Movement Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Due to the advancement of science and technology, modern cars are highly technical, more activity occurs inside the car and driving is faster; however, statistics show that the number of road fatalities have increased in recent years because of drivers’ unsafe behaviors. Therefore, to make the traffic environment safe it is important to keep the driver alert and awake both in human and autonomous driving cars. A driver’s cognitive load is considered a good indication of alertness, but determining cognitive load is challenging and the acceptance of wire sensor solutions are not preferred in real-world driving scenarios. The recent development of a non-contact approach through image processing and decreasing hardware prices enables new solutions and there are several interesting features related to the driver’s eyes that are currently explored in research. This paper presents a vision-based method to extract useful parameters from a driver’s eye movement signals and manual feature extraction based on domain knowledge, as well as automatic feature extraction using deep learning architectures. Five machine learning models and three deep learning architectures are developed to classify a driver’s cognitive load. The results show that the highest classification accuracy achieved is 92% by the support vector machine model with linear kernel function and 91% by the convolutional neural networks model. This non-contact technology can be a potential contributor in advanced driver assistive systems.

A Decade Long Slowdown in Road Crashes and Inherent Consequences Predicted for South Africa

Globally, there are 1.35 million road fatalities every year, which are estimated to cost governments approximately US$ 518 billion, making road fatalities the eighth leading cause of death across all age groups and the leading cause of death of children and young adults. In South Africa, despite tremendous governmental efforts to curb the soaring trajectory of road crashes, the annual number of road fatalities has increased by 26% in recent years. By fitting a structural equation model (SEM) and a GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to analyze and predict future trend of road crashes (number of road crashes, number of casualties, number of fatal crashes and number of persons killed) in South Africa, we propose and test a complex metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships. We show an increasing trend of road crashes over time, a trend that is predictable by number of vehicles in the country, the population of the country and the total distance travelled by vehicles. We further show that death rate linked to road crashes is on average 23.14 deaths per 100,000 persons. Finally, in the next decade, the number of road crashes is predicted to be roughly constant at 617,253 crashes but can reach 1,896,667 crashes in the worst-case scenario. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93,531 over time, although this number may reach 661,531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease in the next decade, it is forecasted to reach 11,241 within the next 10 years with the worse scenario estimated at 19,034 within the same period. At the same time, the number of persons killed in fatal crashes is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14,739 but may also reach 172,784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals perhaps the positive effects of government initiatives to curb road crashes and their consequences; we call for more stronger actions for a drastic reduction in road accident events in South Africa.

What does it Take to Improve Road Safety in Asia?

Despite global, regional, and national efforts in reducing the number of road crashes, the number of fatalities from these crashes is increasing globally as well as in Asia. The Asia-Pacific region currently accounts for 60% of global road fatalities. There are wide variations in the number of road fatalities among the regions, subregions, and countries. Within Asia, the South and South-West Asia subregion has the highest fatality rate of 20.3 fatalities per 100,000 population followed by South-East Asia with a fatality rate of 17.8 per 100,000 population. This paper reviews and analyses the road safety situation and implementation of road safety policies and practices in Asian countries. Identified are distinct risk factors that demand priority consideration. Some of the actions suggested for improving road safety in Asia are: Ensuring the availability of accurate road safety data, addressing the challenges of Vulnerable Road Users and powered two-wheelers, changing behaviors of road users and long haul drivers, ensuring safety features in trunk routes, improving infrastructure and facilities for non-motorised and public transport in cities, prioritising safety in rural and remote areas, empowering road safety institutions with accountability, focusing on low-cost solutions, and advocacy and education.

Lives Saved in Low- and Middle-Income Countries by Road Safety Initiatives Funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies and Implemented by Their Partners between 2007–2018

Over the past 12 years, Bloomberg Philanthropies (BP) and its partner organisations have implemented a global road safety program in low- and middle-income countries. The program was implemented to address the historically increasing number of road fatalities and the inadequate funding to reduce them. This study evaluates the performance of the program by estimating lives saved from road safety interventions implemented during the program period (2007–2018) through to 2030. We estimated that 311,758 lives will have been saved by 2030, with 97,148 lives saved up until 2018 when the evaluation was conducted and a further 214,608 lives projected to be saved if these changes are sustained until 2030. Legislative changes alone accounted for 75% of lives saved. Concurrent activities related to reducing drink driving, implementing legislative changes, and social marketing campaigns run in conjunction with police enforcement and other road safety activities accounted for 57% of the total estimated lives saved. Saving 311,758 lives with funding of USD $259 million indicates a cost-effectiveness ratio of USD $831 per life saved. The potential health gains achieved through the number of lives saved from the road safety initiatives funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies represent a considerable return on investment. This study demonstrates the extent to which successful, cost-effective road safety initiatives can reduce road fatalities in low- and middle-income countries.

Investigation of accidents involving powered two wheelers and bicycles – A European in-depth study

Introduction: The number of road fatalities have been falling throughout the European Union (EU) over the past 20 years and most Member States have achieved an overall reduction. Research has mainly focused on protecting car occupants, with car occupant fatalities reducing significantly. However, recently there has been a plateauing in fatalities amongst ‘Vulnerable Road Users’ (VRUs), and in 2016 accidents involving VRUs accounted for nearly half of all EU road deaths. Method: The SaferWheels study collected in-depth data on 500 accidents involving Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) and bicycles across six European countries. A standard in-depth accident investigation methodology was used by each team. The Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) was used to systematically classify accident causation factors. Results: The most common causal factors related to errors in observation by the PTW/bicycle rider or the driver of the other vehicle, typically called ‘looked but failed to see’ accidents. Common scenarios involved the other vehicle turning or crossing in front of the PTW/bicycle. A quarter of serious or fatal injuries to PTW riders occurred in accidents where the rider lost control with no other vehicle involvement. Conclusions: Highly detailed data have been collected for 500 accidents involving PTWs or bicycles in the EU. These data can be further analyzed by researchers on a case-study basis to gain detailed insights on such accidents. Preliminary analysis suggests that ‘looked but failed to see’ remains a common cause, and in many cases the actions of the other vehicle were the critical factor, though PTW rider speed or inexperience played a role in some cases. Practical Applications: The collected data can be analyzed to better understand the characteristics and causes of accidents involving PTWs and bicycles in the EU. The results can be used to develop policies aimed at reducing road deaths and injuries to VRUs.

The association between national culture, road safety performance and support for policy measures

There are considerable differences between countries when it comes to road safety performance, as indicated by the number of road fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants. These discrepancies are strongly associated with differences in wealth and prosperity, as expected, but are also related to national culture. The overall objective of this exploratory study is to identify relationships between national culture, road safety performance and public support for policy measures. Using the revised version of Hofstede's cultural dimensions, we show the strong correlation between national culture and road safety performance, which exists even after controlling for the national level of wealth as measured by the gross national income. Furthermore, by combining the national cultural dimensions with data on 29 countries from the second stage of ESRA, the E-Survey of Road users' Attitudes, this study demonstrates that culture also affects the level of public support for policy measures related to road safety. Specifically, for many measures, the degree of individualism accounts for a considerable part of the statistical variation in the public support for policy measures across countries—except for those measures for which the support is very high in most countries. Possible explanations are given for the seemingly paradoxical finding that countries which witness high resistance to road safety policy measures have nevertheless managed to achieve better road safety performance.

Do low gasoline prices cause more traffic fatalities in the 50 states of the USA? The importance of other factors

Purpose Motivated by the news media and a lack of comprehensive research on the USA, the purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between changes in road fatalities and gasoline prices, per capita disposable personal income, alcohol consumption per adult, blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limits and gender. Design/methodology/approach This study employs both static and dynamic panel data models, making use of annual data over the 2000–2013 period collected from the 50 states of the USA and the consistent system GMM estimators of the parameters, to estimate the impact of these variables on fatalities per 100,000 persons and per 100,000 vehicles. Findings The results highlight the importance of gasoline prices in determining the level of road fatalities, underscoring that a 10 percent decrease in gasoline prices leads to a 248 increase in the total number of road fatalities, but with many more injuries. Increases in the female-to-total driver ratio have a greater significant positive impact on road fatalities where a 10 percent increase in this ratio increases road fatalities by 1,008 deaths. Increases in registered vehicles per capita also increase the number of fatalities. Other variables such as alcohol consumption per adult and BAC limits are not as important. Policy implications are also provided. Research limitations/implications The results of this study highlight the importance of gasoline prices in determining the number of road fatalities. This factor can be an effective policy measure by which policymakers can offset increases in fatalities due to further drastic declines in future gasoline prices. But the effects of the gasoline prices in determining the number of road fatalities are not as strong as the media would lead us to believe. The media ignores the impact of other factors on fatalities, which results in an overestimation of the impact of gasoline prices. Originality/value This study uses the panel data of 50 US states and the dynamic panel data model. In addition to gasoline price effects on the road fatalities, this study also considers other factors such as gender, gasoline taxes, per capita disposable personal income, per capita alcohol consumption, BAC limits and number of registered vehicles.

Indexing Crash Worthiness, Crash Aggressivity, and Total Secondary Safety for Major Car Brands: A Case Study of Iran

A growing body of research is being conducted all over the world to evaluate and compare the safety impacts of different car brands. This issue has also received a considerable attention among the safety experts in Iran, where the number of road fatalities is around 16,500 lives per year. This study aims at indexing crash worthiness, crash aggressivity, and total secondary safety of the 20 most prevalently used passenger car brands of Iranian fleet. For this purpose, the data pertaining to 167,759 crashes and 335,518 drivers involved in those crashes that occurred in Iran from 2009 to 2012 were used. Binomial logistic regression model was applied to define the above-mentioned indices based on driver’s injury severity level. The results showed that most of the domestic brands have a poorer performance than the foreign ones in all three indices. Furthermore, it was revealed that Kia and Suzuki have a better performance and Sepand and Pride have a poorer performance compared to the other brands. Our findings might also be integrated with the findings of other similar studies around the world. This could be helpful for car manufacturers both in Iran and across the world to benchmark the best performing car brand in vehicle safety domain and improve the designing of their own car brands.

Self-reported speed compliance and attitudes towards speeding in a representative sample of drivers in Australia

BackgroundVehicle speed is a major contributor to road trauma, both in terms of increased crash risk and injury severity. In Australia, approximately one third of fatal crashes occur in speed zones of 100km/h. This proportion has remained the same, despite the reduction in the number of road fatalities over the past decade. To drive further reductions in speed-related crashes, an improved understanding of the underlying determinants of speed choice is required. MethodA community attitude survey designed to understand speed behaviour and attitudes towards speeding was distributed to a large (N=5179) representative sample of drivers in Australia. Participants provided information regarding their normal speed choices across four different speed zones (40, 50, 60 and 100km/h), beliefs about the risks and enforcement of speeding behaviour as well as technology to reduce speeding. ResultsAlmost half of the sample (47%) reported exceeding the speed limit in 100km/h zones, although only a small number of these drivers (<0.5%) did so by 11km/h or more. Age and sex were related to speed limit non-compliance. Males were more likely to be classified as mid-level speeders, defined as being up to 10km/h over the limit, and excessive speeders (11+km/h over the limit). Younger drivers were also more likely to be non-compliant. When compared to compliant drivers, non-compliers perceived less risk of a serious crash, reported greater likelihood of exceeding the speed limit when they believed they would not be detected, and reported a higher level of social acceptability of speeding. Only one-third of the sample reported prior knowledge of intelligent speed assist (ISA) technology, however, once explained, the majority agreed it would be personally useful (64%). Speed non-compliers were somewhat less likely to support the usefulness of ISA than speed limit compliant drivers. ConclusionThese findings can be used to target appropriate interventions and road safety messages, aimed at reducing speeding behaviour. Measures designed to address perceived social acceptability of speed behaviour, the increased crash risk associated with speeding, and the threat of detection are recommended.

Road fatalities in Trinidad: A geographic information system approach

This paper aims to examine road fatalities using a GIS approach in Trinidad in an effort to provide recommendations on how road collisions and the number of casualties can be mitigated. In order to achieve this, the paper has examined a number of maps of Trinidad. The study examined data generated from maps of Trinidad using the Arc GIS Maps 10 software. Different variables were used to manipulate the data and these were road incidents by administrative area, municipalities, population density and socio economic status in Trinidad. The data generated represented the period 2005 to 2011 from 355 locations across Trinidad. From the data analyzed, it is clear that there is a positive correlation between the number of fatalities and the economic status of an area as well as the population of the area. From the data represented in the maps, it is clear that in regions with high population and numerous intersections such as City of San Fernando, Tunapuna, Port of Spain, San Juan, Laventille, and Diego Martin the number of road fatalities was high. The findings established in the study can allow for change in: (i) Road Traffic legislation and control measures and (ii) infrastructural redesign and implements. Key words: Geographic information system, Trinidad, road traffic fatalities.

Road Fatalities and Their Determinants in Iran: Evidence From Panel Provincial Data

Background: Studies have shown that the number of road fatalities has been decreasing in developed regions and increasing in less and middle developed regions. Iran has one of the highest road fatalities in the world. Controlling road fatalities is vital for less and middle developed countries like Iran. Objectives: The aim of this study was to find factors affecting road fatalities in Iran using macro provincial data.Materials and Methods: Panel data of provinces of Iran between 2008 and 2012 were used for this study. Panel data Poisson estimator was used for estimating the model. Hausman test and Breusch-pagan test were used for finding between pooled or panel and fixed or random effects. Results: No significant relationships were found regarding the percentage of emergency sites and percentage of cars with road fatalities. Increase in the percentage of motorcycles, rain, highways and freeways increased the risk of road fatalities. The effect of highways in road fatalities was higher than freeways. Increase in the percentage of traffic police sites and people living in urban regions decreased the risk of accident fatalities. Conclusions: The government, ministry of health and policy makers must develop strategies for controling high levels of road fatalities in Iran. Keywords: Accident Prevention, Cause of Death, Accidents, Motor Vehicles, Poisson Distribution, Econometric Model, Panel Data, Iran

Let's not forget about injury.

Let's not forget about injury.

Serious Injuries: An Additional Indicator to Fatalities for Road Safety Benchmarking

Objectives: Almost all of the current road safety benchmarking studies focus entirely on fatalities, which, however, represent only one measure of the magnitude of the road safety problem. The main objective of this article was to investigate the possibility of including the number of serious injuries in addition to the number of fatalities for road safety benchmarking and to further illuminate its impact on the countries’ rankings.Methods: We introduced the technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to the road safety domain and developed a DEA-based road safety model (DEA-RS) in this study. Moreover, we outlined different types of possible weight restrictions and adopted 2 of them to indicate the relationship between road fatalities and serious injuries for the sake of rational benchmarking. One was a relative weight restriction based on the information of their shadow price, and the other was a virtual weight restriction using a priori knowledge about the importance level of these 2 aspects.Results: By computing the most optimal road safety risk scores of 10 European countries based on the different models, we found that United Kingdom was the only best-performing country no matter which model was utilized. However, countries such as The Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland were no longer best-performing when the serious injuries were integrated. On the contrary, Spain, which ranked almost at the bottom among all of the countries when only the number of road fatalities was considered, became a relatively well-performing country when integrating its number of serious injuries in the evaluation. In general, no matter whether the country's road safety ranking was improved or deteriorated, most of the countries achieved a higher risk score when the number of serious injuries was included, which implied that compared to the road fatalities, more policy attention has to be paid to improve the situation of serious injuries in most countries.Conclusions: Given the importance of considering the serious injuries in addition to the fatalities for international benchmarking of road safety, the proposed model (i.e., the DEA-RS model with weight restrictions) turned out to be effective in deriving reasonable results. We are thereby also inspired to apply this kind of model to a more complete road safety benchmarking practice in the future when the data on, for example, the number of slight injuries, the degree of property damage, and the number of crashes are ready (i.e., comparable) to use.

Quantifying the influence of safe road systems and legal licensing age on road mortality among young adolescents: Steps towards system thinking

Based on existing literature, a system thinking approach was used to set up a conceptual model on the interrelationships among the components influencing adolescent road mortality, distinguishing between components at the individual level and at the system level. At the individual level the role of risk behaviour (sometimes deliberate and sometimes from inexperience or other non-deliberate causes) in adolescent road mortality is well documented. However, little is known about the extent to which the ‘road system’ itself may also have an impact on younger adolescents’ road mortality. This, by providing a safe or unsafe road environment for all road users (System-induced exposure) and by allowing access to high-risk vehicles at a young or older age through the legal licensing age. This study seeks to explore these relationships by analysing the extent to which the road mortality of 10 to 17 year olds in various jurisdictions can be predicted from the System-induced Exposure (SiE) in a jurisdiction and from its legal licensing age to drive motor vehicles. SiE was operationalized as the number of road fatalities per 105 inhabitants/all ages together, but excluding the 10 to 17 year olds. Data on road fatalities during the years 2001 through 2008 were obtained from the OECD International Road Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD) and from the USA NHTSA's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database for 29 early and 10 late licensing jurisdictions. Linear mixed models were fitted with annual ‘Adolescent road mortality per capita’ for 2001 through 2008 as the dependent variable, and time-dependent ‘SiE’ and time-independent ‘Licensing system’ as predictor variables. To control for different levels of motorisation, the time-dependent variable ‘Annual per capita vehicle distance travelled’ was used as a covariate. Licensing system of a jurisdiction was entered as a categorical predictor variable with late licensing countries as a baseline group. The study found support for the protective effects of SiE on adolescent safety. If SiE increased by one unit, the mortality rate of 10 to 17 year olds increased by 0.487 units. No support was found for a protective effect of late licensing for this age group. Thus, compared to young adolescents who are allowed to drive motor vehicles in early licensing jurisdictions, late licensing does not provide extra protection for pre-license adolescents. This finding is probably the result of the high risks associated with alternative transport modes, such as moped riding and bicycling. Also, the fact that the study only included risks to young adolescents themselves and did not include the risks they might pose to other road users and passengers may have contributed to this finding, because such risks are greater when driving a motor vehicle than riding a moped or a bicycle. Therefore, to advance our understanding of the impact of licensing systems, more study is needed into the benefits of early or late licensing, thereby considering these wider effects as well.

National road mortality reduction targets under European Union road safety policy: 2011–2020

The European Union (EU) has proposed renewing the target for halving the number of road fatalities in the period 2011–2020. In this paper, a nonlinear distribution method for dynamic fatality reduction targets is applied for the purpose of finding individual national mortality reduction targets for each of the 27 member countries in the EU. Weighting is undertaken for four scenarios based on the following indicators: road mortality rates, fatality rates, fatality risks, and fatality density. Results are presented for four proposals to reduce the number of fatalities in each Member State, based on the original situation of the indicators considered in the study. The results seek to provide policy-makers with a broader vision with regard to the achievement of the goals of EU road safety policy.

Road safety development in Europe: A decade of changes (2001–2010)

To evaluate the road safety development of a country over time, the percentage change in the number of road fatalities is traditionally the main indicator. However, simply considering the reduction in the road fatalities may not correctly reflect the real improvement in road safety because the transport circumstances of a country underlying the road fatalities also change every year. In this study, we present a new way for measuring the road safety performance change over time, which is to use the technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist productivity index. In doing so, we can not only focus on the evolution of road safety final outcomes within a given period, but also take the changes of different measures of exposure in the same period into account. In the application, the DEA-based Malmquist productivity index (DEA-MI) is used to measure the extent to which the EU countries have improved their road safety performance over the period 2001–2010. More objective and insightful results are obtained compared to the ones based on the traditional indicator. The results show considerable road safety progress in most of the Member States during these ten years, and the fatality risk rather than the fatality number on Europe's roads has actually been reduced by approximately half. However, the situation differed considerably from country to country. The decomposition of the DEA-MI into ‘efficiency change’ and ‘technical change’ further reveals that the bulk of the improvement during the last decade was attained through the adoption of productivity-enhancing new technologies throughout the road transport sector in Europe, rather than through the relatively underperforming countries catching up with those best-performing ones.