Abstract
Globally, there are 1.35 million road fatalities every year, which are estimated to cost governments approximately US$ 518 billion, making road fatalities the eighth leading cause of death across all age groups and the leading cause of death of children and young adults. In South Africa, despite tremendous governmental efforts to curb the soaring trajectory of road crashes, the annual number of road fatalities has increased by 26% in recent years. By fitting a structural equation model (SEM) and a GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to analyze and predict future trend of road crashes (number of road crashes, number of casualties, number of fatal crashes and number of persons killed) in South Africa, we propose and test a complex metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships. We show an increasing trend of road crashes over time, a trend that is predictable by number of vehicles in the country, the population of the country and the total distance travelled by vehicles. We further show that death rate linked to road crashes is on average 23.14 deaths per 100,000 persons. Finally, in the next decade, the number of road crashes is predicted to be roughly constant at 617,253 crashes but can reach 1,896,667 crashes in the worst-case scenario. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93,531 over time, although this number may reach 661,531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease in the next decade, it is forecasted to reach 11,241 within the next 10 years with the worse scenario estimated at 19,034 within the same period. At the same time, the number of persons killed in fatal crashes is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14,739 but may also reach 172,784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals perhaps the positive effects of government initiatives to curb road crashes and their consequences; we call for more stronger actions for a drastic reduction in road accident events in South Africa.
Highlights
Road crashes can be defined as events on the road that involve the collision of either two or more vehicles, or a vehicle and a vulnerable road user, or a vehicle and a fixed object, e.g., bridge (RTMC, 2008)
Over the 82 years (1935–2017) period covered in this study, the findings reveal an increasing trend in number of reported road crashes, casualties, fatal crashes, and deaths
Verster and Fourie (2018) estimated the severity rate at 1,2–1,3 between 2010 and 2015, a rate similar to what is revealed in the present study, our present study covers a longer period of time than theirs
Summary
Road crashes can be defined as events on the road that involve the collision of either two or more vehicles, or a vehicle and a vulnerable road user (cyclists or pedestrian), or a vehicle and a fixed object, e.g., bridge (RTMC, 2008). According to the leading road safety agency in South Africa, road crashes are classified into four categories of severity, namely: fatal crashes, major crashes, minor crashes, and damage-only crashes (RTMC, 2017). The Future Of Road Crashes in South Africa crashes may result in serious and light injuries (RTMC, 2008). Major crashes are defined as crashes in which one person or more people are seriously injured (RTMC, 2017). Existing statistics indicate that more than 90% of road crashes are fatal in both low- and middleincome countries, and these fatal crashes often involve more than 50% of unregistered vehicles (WHO, 2009). The Global Status Report on Road Safety reported road fatalities to be the eighth leading cause of death across all age groups (Donaldson et al, 2009) and are the leading cause of death of children and young adults aged 5–29 years (RTMC, 2019)
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