BackgroundThere is increasing recognition of the role of primary care in improved health outcomes. This study aimed to explore the association between primary care use and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in rural China. MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, we used county-level data from routine reports of each county provided by the National Health Commission and Bureau of Statistics. The primary outcome was U5MR per 1000 live births, in 1965 rural counties from all 31 provinces of China in 2014. Primary care use was measured as outpatient visits per 1000 inhabitants in primary health institutions, and we used the level of primary health institution use as a proxy for the level of primary care use. Multilevel regression analysis with a random intercept model was conducted to estimate the association between the level of primary care use and U5MR, adjusting for the number of primary care physicians per 1000 people, demographics and socioeconomic determinants of health. FindingsThe results indicate that an increase of one primary care physician per 1000 people was associated with 2·7 fewer under-5 deaths per 1000 children (p=0·0001) after controlling for socioeconomic factors. Moreover, we found that a higher level of primary care use moderated this relationship, and was correlated with lower U5MR (p=0·004), whereas the number of specialist physicians per 1000 people had a statistically insignificant association with lower U5MR (p=0·125). In addition, higher GDP per capita and lower female illiteracy rate were significantly associated with lower U5MR (p=0·001 and p<0·0001, respectively). InterpretationLower U5MR is associated with higher per capita primary care use, which may indicate that primary care is more effective for the health outcome that we measured. A strong primary care system could be recognised as a critical strategy for improving population health. FundingHL was supported by the China Scholarship Council for 1 year of study at Harvard University.
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