Wheat is a crucial grain crop in China, but its yield has been severely reduced by a number of pests. Identifying the pest's distribution range is vital for its effective control. Therefore, based on distribution data and environmental variables, the MaxEnt model was used herein to predict the suitability areas for habitation by Sitobion miscanthi in China now and in the future (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). The results showed that terrain roughness was the most important environmental variable in determining the distribution of S. miscanthi. Furthermore, the current suitability areas reached an area of 1.91 × 106 km2, mainly distributed in southern, eastern, and northeastern China, such as Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui provinces. Under future environmental conditions, the suitability areas for its habitation are expected to primarily expand in the northwest, especially in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and move northwest. Moreover, the high suitability areas for habitation by this pest showed a trend of continuous increase, indicating a high probability of outbreaks. The findings on the suitability areas for S. miscanthi to inhabit at present and in the future, as determined here, are conducive to the implementation of management and control measures to enhance wheat yield and ensure food security in China.
Read full abstract