Number Of New Cases Research Articles

Mathematical modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic with fear impact

<abstract><p>Many studies have shown that faced with an epidemic, the effect of fear on human behavior can reduce the number of new cases. In this work, we consider an SIS-B compartmental model with fear and treatment effects considering that the disease is transmitted from an infected person to a susceptible person. After model formulation and proving some basic results as positiveness and boundedness, we compute the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal R_0 $ and compute the equilibrium points of the model. We prove the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium when $ \mathcal R_0 < 1 $. We study then the condition of occurrence of the backward bifurcation phenomenon when $ \mathcal R_0\leq1 $. After that, we prove that, if the saturation parameter which measures the effect of the delay in treatment for the infected individuals is equal to zero, then the backward bifurcation disappears and the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. We then prove, using the geometric approach, that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable whenever the $ \mathcal R_0 > 1 $. We finally perform several numerical simulations to validate our analytical results.</p></abstract>

Data Mining Based Techniques for Covid-19 Predictions

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has resulted in numerous fatalities and infections in recent years, with a rising tendency in both the number of infections and deaths and the pace of recovery. Accurate forecasting models are important for making accurate forecasts and taking relevant actions. As a result, accurate short-term forecasting of the number of new cases that are contaminated and recovered is essential for making the best use of the resources at hand and stopping or delaying the spread of such illnesses. This paper shows the various techniques for forecasting the covid-19 cases. This paper classifies the various models according to their category and shows the merits and demerits of various fore-casting techniques. The research provides insight into potential issues that may arise during the forecasting of covid-19 instances for predicting the positive, negative, and death cases in this pandemic. In this paper, numerous forecasting techniques and their categories have been studied. The goal of this work is to aggregate the findings of several forecasting techniques to aid in the fight against the pandemic.

Association of natural flood disasters with infectious diseases in 168 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: A worldwide observational study

BackgroundNatural flood disasters have a devastating effect on society, but the comprehensive assessment of their association with infectious diseases is lacking. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association of natural flood disasters with new cases and deaths of different infectious disease globally from 1990 to 2019, and provide scientific evidence for early warning and measures for the prevention and control of outbreaks and endemic of potential infectious disease following natural flood disasters. MethodsWe used data on natural flood disasters from international disaster database from 1990 to 2019. Data on infectious diseases were from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models (quasi-Poisson GLM) were used to calculate the effects size, after controlling other confounders. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, natural flood disasters occurred on 47,368 cumulative days in 168 countries and territories, resulting in a total of 242,516 deaths and affecting 3.55 billion people. The duration of floods showed a trend of increase, with an average increased rate of 5.14% per year (Estimated annual percentage change [EAPC] =5.14%, 95% CI: 3.57%-7.16%; p < 0.05). The incidence rates of most infectious diseases showed decreasing trends in the past 30 years (all p < 0.05), except for dengue (with an EAPC of 1.06%, 95%CI: 0.90%-1.23%). In the multivariable models, increased number of new cases of acute hepatitis A, acute hepatitis E, dengue, malaria, measles, meningitis, typhoid and paratyphoid, tuberculosis, and upper respiratory infections were significantly correlated with the longer duration of floods (all p < 0.05). Increased lasting days of flooding were associated with increased number of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections (0.173%), measles (0.126%), typhoid and paratyphoid (0.043%), tetanus (0.245%), and tuberculosis (0.154%, all p < 0.05). ConclusionsNatural flood disasters were associated with increased new cases and deaths of enteric infections, neglected tropical diseases, and respiratory infections. Concerted efforts should be made to design better strategies for adaptation to prevent and control the outbreak of floods-related infectious disease and reduce their impact on health and life.

Hepatitis C Treatment in Persons Who Inject Drugs in a Medication Assisted Treatment Program: A Retrospective Review of an Integrated Model.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common among persons who inject drugs (PWID), mostly due to needle sharing. The number of new cases in PWID are steadily increasing despite the availability of effective treatments. The objective of this model is to increase uptake and compliance with HCV treatment. We developed a model to treat HCV and opioid use disorder simultaneously in a methadone maintenance program. Patients were screened on site for HCV at admission and then annually. Once HCV was positive, the genotypes and fibrosis scores were identified. Patients were enrolled into the treatment program after obtaining written consent. Patients either self-administered the medications at home or utilized a directly observed treatment (DOT). The sustained virologic response (SVR) was tested at 12 weeks posttreatment. We conducted a retrospective review of patients who received treatment and reviewed the demographic data, co-infections, medication administration, and SVR results at the end of study period. One hundred ninety patients were identified as Hepatitis C positive. 88.9% (169 patients) received HCV treatment during the study period. 62.7% (106 patients) were male and 37.3% were female (63 patients). 62.7% of them (106 patients) completed HCV treatment by the end of study period. Out of them, 96.2% (102 patients) achieved SVR. 68.9% (73 patients) utilized DOT for medication administration. Our model successfully treated HCV in our patient population, who are otherwise deprived of resources and access to health care. Replicating this model is a potential strategy to reduce the disease burden and break the transmission cycle of HCV.

Trends in incidences of newly notified tuberculosis in Jeju Province, Korea, 2017-2021

In 2021, the incidence of newly notified tuberculosis in Jeju Province decreased by 23.0% compared to that in the previous year. This was the largest decline among the 18 municipalities studied. This study aimed to examine trends in the incidence of tuberculosis among different age and sex groups in Jeju Province between 2017 and 2021. This study observed the number of new cases in the annual report from 2017 to 2021, published by the Jeju Center for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention. The average annual percentage change (AAPC; %) was calculated to determine the trend in crude incidence rates over the past 5 years by sex and age. While a &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;-value of &lt;0.1 was considered marginally significant, a &lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;-value of &lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant. The AAPC of all age groups in Jeju Province had negative values. In men, there was a statistically significant decrease in ages 30-34, 40-44, 45-49, and 50-54 years and a marginally significant decrease in ages 35-59, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 75-79, and ≥80 years. In women, a statistically significant decrease was observed among patients aged 30-34, 35-39, and ≥80 years, and a marginally significant decrease was observed among patients aged 45-49, 50-54, 60-64, 65-69, and 75-79 years. A statistically significant decrease in tuberculosis was observed among patients in their 30s and 40s, and elderly patients aged ≥80 years comprised the group vulnerable to tuberculosis. Based on these findings, tuberculosis prevention and screening programs conducted in Jeju Province were effective.

Epidemiology and course of infectious diseases during the covid-19 pandemic. Report 2. Interference engaged between SARS-COV-2 and acute respiratory viral infections

Currently, the disease caused by the new coronavirus (COVID-19) and the possibility of co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens in the current epidemic situation continues to be of particular interest. The review, based on the analysis of literature and own materials, outlines the features of the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and pathogens of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI). Particular attention is paid to the combined course of COVID-19 and influenza, a comparative characteristic of the severity of the clinical picture. An assessment of the epidemic situation against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic in foreign countries and the Russian Federation (RF) revealed the presence of the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 interference with other viral respiratory agents, based on the facts of a sharp suppression of the circulation of influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other ARVI pathogens during the period of active spread of pandemic coronavirus. The main epidemiological indicators of the course of coronavirus infection were compared and the contribution of various pathogens to the etiology of acute respiratory viral infections during the development of the second wave of COVID-19 in the RF was assessed. It was noted that the decrease in the number of new cases by 11.4 and deaths by 2.1 times due to COVID-19 at 6 and 13 weeks in 2022 occurred with unchanged laboratory detection of the influenza virus (0.8%) and an increase in the frequency detection of pathogens of other SARS. The results of observations showed that against the background of a decrease in the incidence of COVID-19, there was no increase in the proportion of diagnosed cases of infections caused by other pathogens, especially influenza. The results obtained confirm the need to ensure effective epidemiological surveillance and additional application of pathogen identification methods for monitoring various ARVI, which can significantly affect the approach to differential diagnosis, patient management tactics and the decision on appropriate preventive measures.

Comparing COVID-19 Case Prediction Between ARIMA Model and Compartment Model - China, December 2019-April 2020.

To compare the performance between the compartment model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that were applied to the prediction of new infections during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. The compartment model and the ARIMA model were established based on the daily cases of new infection reported in China from December 2, 2019 to April 8, 2020. The goodness of fit of the two models was compared using the coefficient of determination (R2). The compartment model predicts that the number of new cases without a cordon sanitaire, i.e., a restriction of mobility to prevent spread of disease, will increase exponentially over 10 days starting from January 23, 2020, while the ARIMA model shows a linear increase. The calculated R2 values of the two models without cordon sanitaire were 0.990 and 0.981. The prediction results of the ARIMA model after February 2, 2020 have a large deviation. The R2 values of complete transmission process fit of the epidemic for the 2 models were 0.964 and 0.933, respectively. The two models fit well at different stages of the epidemic. The predictions of compartment model were more in line with highly contagious transmission characteristics of COVID-19. The accuracy of recent historical data had a large impact on the predictions of the ARIMA model as compared to those of the compartment model.

MEDICAL AND SOCIAL SUBSTANTIATION OF THE PROBLEM OF QUALITY OF LIFE OF PATIENTS WITH PROSTATE CANCER

Introduction. Prostate cancer (PC) is one of the most common cancers among men over 50. Nowadays in Ukraine, the number of new cases of PC tends to increase according to statistics.&#x0D; Objectives. The aim of the study is to identify the main problems in the life quality of patients with PC (C61) to optimize medical care for them.&#x0D; Methods. The main aspects of the quality of life of PC patients are studied by means of EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-PR25 questionnaires.&#x0D; Results. In Ukraine, as of the pre-war period (November 2021 – February 2022), the quality of life of patients with PC amounted to 52.31 on a 100-point scale. The worst indicators within the functional scale QLQ-C30 belonged to the subscale “Role functioning” (65.44). According to the QLQ-C30 symptoms scale, the highest score among the complaints of Ukrainian patients is fatigue (48.58). Given the results of our research on the QLQ-PR25 symptom scale, patients with PC were the most worried about “Urinary symptoms”, with a score of 38.54 out of 100. According to the functional scale QLQ-PR25, the worst indicators were for “Sexual activity”, which is equal to 32.22 points on a 100-point scale.&#x0D; Conclusions. It is important to create socio-psychological support for patients with PC and their families, which will include the development and implementation of standardized psychological care at all stages of diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation.

Antiviral Activity of The Preparation Meflokhin® Against COVID-19

The COVID-19 virus has caused a global emergency and has attracted the attention of healthcare professionals and the public around the world. The significant increase in the number of new cases of infection with this virus demonstrates the relevance of the search for drugs that are effective against this pathogen. The aim of this work was to evaluate the antiviral efficacy of Mefloquin® against COVID-19. The antiviral efficacy of Mefloquin® against the new pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2 was studied in in vitro experiments in Vero C1008 cell culture and in vivo on Syrian golden hamsters. The results of the study revealed that the drug Mefloquine® at a concentration of 2.0 µg ml-1, when applied after infection of cells, suppresses the reproduction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus by 1.7–1.9 lg, the inhibition rate is about 99%. When using Mefloquine, pathological changes in the lung tissue were less pronounced than in the control group. 6 days after infection, it was shown that when using Mefloquine, there was a statistically significant decrease in viral load in the lungs of infected Syrian golden hamsters, with an inhibition rate of 95.5%.

COMMUNITY GROUP CARING FOR HEALTHY LUNGS (MADUPASEH) TOWARDS THE PREVENTION OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS IN YOKA VILLAGE

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by infection with the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The source of transmission is tuberculosis patients with positive Acid Resistant Bacillus (positive BTA) through splashes of sputum droplets that they emit. Indonesia is the country with the second highest number of new cases in the world after India. The purpose of this community service is to empower the people of Yoka Village in the Prevention of Pulmonary TB by forming a Healthy Lung Care Community (MADUPASEH). The method in this implementation is to conduct a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with the Yoka Village Government and the Head of the Yoka Health Center to discuss the problems in Yoka Village. The result: this community service was attended by the Head of Yoka Village along with village government staff, the community, ondoafi leaders, ondofolo, youth leaders, women leaders, and TB Paru cadres in Yoka Village.

Assessing the Dynamics of COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality in Response to Mass Vaccination: A Comparative Study Between Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.

Background Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, efforts have been in place to tackle the infection. Mass vaccination programs were regarded as the sole solution to end the pandemic. Here, we compare the differential impact of mass vaccination programs in Saudi Arabia (SA) and the United Kingdom (UK) on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality to determine whether vaccines were solely responsible for the changes observed in the disease dynamics. Methodology We retrospectively collected the number of new cases and deaths throughout 2021 in both SA and the UK. Similarly, the number of vaccine doses delivered in both countries was collected and compared. Results Through 2021, the percentage of daily COVID-19 cases was significantly less in SA than in the UK; however, the percentage of deaths was higher in SA. Interestingly, the percentage of daily cases was significantly reduced in SA upon vaccination. The vaccination coverage of both the first and second doses was higher in the UK compared to SA, and, consequently, the percentage of deaths was significantly reduced in the UK compared to SA. Conclusions The UK vaccination program succeeded in curbing the number of daily deaths compared to SA. SA had better control over the percentage of daily cases, primarily due to the restrictive measures and vaccination, such as the imposed social distancing and mandatory face masks.

Geographic Medical Overview of Noncommunicable Diseases (Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes) in the Territory of the AP Vojvodina (Northern Serbia).

The objective of this study was a geographic medical analysis of noncommunicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases from 2010 to 2020 and diabetes from 2010 to 2019) in the AP Vojvodina (northern Serbia) in order to identify the most and least burdened counties as well as to present trends in the mentioned diseases. The Mann-Kendall trend test, a cluster analysis, and Getis-Ord Gi* method for hot spot analysis were applied in this analysis. Regarding acute coronary syndrome and myocardial infarction, the North Backa County had a lower mortality rate although the number of newly reported cases was above average. The largest number of new cases of unstable angina pectoris was in the North Backa, North Banat, and Middle Banat Counties, while the West Backa County was identified as a county with a higher mortality rate. The cluster analysis showed that the number of death cases from diabetes in the Srem County is significantly higher than that in the other counties. Likewise, the West Backa County had a high number of new diabetes patients, but also a much lower mortality rate. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are predominant in newly diagnosed incidences and death cases in the AP Vojvodina. Studies of this kind promote public health and healthcare systems in the researched area and in the Republic of Serbia, as well as in other countries.

Comparative Approach of Tracking COVID-19 in Balkan Countries Using Interactive Web-Based Dashboard.

The design and implementation of an online dashboard to support data-driven decision-making and joint coordination between health institutions and government bodies in the Balkan countries faced with new COVID-19 waves in the region. Shiny R dashboard tracks COVID-19 in real-time using a comparative approach to interactively visualize national-level data from various official sources. The dashboard, named COVID-19 Situation in Balkan countries can be accessed online (COVID-19 Situation in Balkan countries). The daily situation in 11 Balkan countries focuses on similarities and differences between countries on a daily basis and since the beginning of the pandemic. The web resource features the most affected countries, the number of new cases, and fatality rates reported daily. Features also include rankings of the worst affected countries, information search and filtering, and a map component interactively showing daily information for each country comparatively. The dashboard for the COVID-19 situation in Balkan countries simplifies meaningful real-time information for public and health agencies regarding the COVID-19 situation in the whole Balkan region. The creation allows for a deep analysis of measures taken to face COVID-19 in a regional context, allowing for health policy updates and a better basis for collaboration among Balkan governments.

The Incidence of Postpartum Depression and Associated Factors Among Iranian Healthy Mothers: Findings of a Prospective Cohort Study

Background: The occurrence of some psychological and emotional crisis in pregnancy may lead to postpartum depression in mothers. Objectives: This prospective cohort study aimed to estimate the incidence of postpartum depression (PPD) and its associated factors among Iranian mothers. Methods: A total of 164 women in their third trimester of pregnancy were recruited through quota sampling from February to July 2018 in Kerman, Iran. Women suffering from depression were excluded. The remained healthy women (n = 164) were traced up to two months after the delivery. The incidence of PPD was calculated by dividing the number of new cases of depression within the postpartum period by the number of initial healthy mothers. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was applied to detect PPD. The Cox regression model was used to assess PPD-related factors. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios, as well as their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were reported. P-values of &lt; 0.05 were considered statistically significant. SPSS version 22 was used to analyze the data. Results: The incidence of PPD within the two months after delivery was 9.8% and was higher among mothers who had high-school diploma or lower (11.9% vs. 6.4%), had unplanned pregnancy (25% vs. 9.2%), underwent cesarean section (11.3% vs. 8.7%), or were multiparous (10.6% vs. 6.3%). The mean (SD) social support was lower among mothers with depression (69.1 ± 13.1 vs. 77.4 ± 16.6). There was significant association between type of delivery (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 0.57, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.36; 0.97) and social support (AHR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93; 0.97) with PPD. Conclusions: In sum, the concerning incidence of PPD highlighted the need for establishment and strengthening of screening programs during the post-partum period. Families’ knowledge about the significance of providing sufficient social support for mothers may have prevented this disorder and therefore, it was recommended that it should be incorporated into prenatal cares.

TELEMEDICINE TRENDS IN THREE NURSING HOMES DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract Physical distancing and visiting restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic posed significant challenges in providing timely medical care in nursing homes. The rising number of new COVID-19 cases created hardship in providing scheduled and non-urgent care visits. Virtual visits were pivotal in providing patient care. However, the additional responsibility of facilitating virtual visits for both social and clinical purposes further constrained the ability of nursing home staff to provide care. The critical deficiency of the workforce, rising numbers of new cases, and required triage of patients have been significant barriers to regularly scheduled care. We hypothesize that regular non-COVID-19 services in the evaluated nursing home facilities were lower than COVID-19 visits during this period. Our goal is to show the types of services affected during the pandemic. In this study, we analyzed 563 virtual visits during the COVID-19 pandemic in three nursing home facilities in Michigan from December 2020 through February 2022. Upon analyzing the types of services and trends, our results revealed that the number of COVID-19 related visits (68) was significantly lower than non-COVID-19 related visits (485), refuting our hypothesis. This illustrates that routine care could still be delivered during the pandemic. Additionally, the overall number of virtual visits declined steadily over the study period. This trend could suggest an increase of in-person services or a decrease in COVID-19 cases. The decline could also be related to the barriers faced by the nursing home workforce considering the time and additional responsibility of monitoring a virtual visit.

CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES PREDICT ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE ONSET IN NON-DEPRESSED ADULTS

Abstract We examined the mediating or moderating effect of stroke on the effect of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the onset of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in a nationally-representative sample of older Americans with and without clinical depression. Diagnosis of CVD was adjudicated with the established Health and Retirement Study (1992–2016) methodology and included self-reported coronary heart disease, angina, heart failure, myocardial infarction, or other heart conditions. Probable-AD and probable-Stroke were identified inferentially using a validated pattern recognition algorithm. Analyses were stratified by a validated cutoff of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D.) Participants (Nf17,154) were observed an average of 8 times over the span of 20 years (Obs=138,510). 12% of all AD cases are preventable by eliminating CVD in older adults in the US, compared to the 31% of all AD cases are preventable by eliminating stroke in the population. In non-depressed adults, risks for accelerated AD onset included: CVD, stroke, age, diabetes, and current smoking. Non-depressed females had delayed AD onset than males. The interaction of CVD x Stroke accelerated AD onset by 1.79 times (95%C.I. =1.63–1.97) in non-depressed adults. CVD was not a significant risk of AD onset in depressed adults. We conclude that 1)reducing the incidence of CVD and strokes in the US would drastically reduce the number of new cases of AD; and 2) stroke compounds the CVD hazards of accelerated AD onset; and 3) clinical depression is a key modulator of the effect of the risk factors of accelerated AD onset.

The 2021 Portuguese Presidential Elections under extraordinary circumstances: Covid-19 and the rise of the radical right in Portugal

ABSTRACT Despite the low mobilization of citizenry, the lack of any strong electoral competition and consequently the expected re-election of the incumbent, the 2021 Portuguese Presidential elections gained particular interest for two main reasons. Firstly, this election took place in extraordinary circumstances amid the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, Portugal was experiencing the world’s highest number of new cases and deaths per million. Secondly, this election was noted for the support obtained by the far-right candidate, unprecedented in national elections in Portugal. Thus, this article attempts to provide an overview of the main features of the presidential elections of 2021 in Portugal, namely the measures introduced to mitigate the threat of the pandemic and assure voters’ safety, the impact of the pandemic and the lockdown in the electoral campaign, the electoral results, and the rise of the radical right in Portugal and its implications.

Thermo and Photoresponsive Emulgel Loaded with Copaifera reticulata Ducke and Chlorophylls: Rheological, Mechanical, Photodynamic and Drug Delivery Properties in Human Skin.

Recently, the number of new cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis has been of concern among health agencies. Research that offers new therapeutic alternatives is advantageous, especially those that develop innovative drugs. Therefore, this paper presents the incorporation of Copaifera reticulata Ducke and chlorophyll extract into Pluronic®® F127 and Carbopol gels, under optimized polymer quantities. The chlorophyll extract (rich in photosensitizing compounds) was obtained by continuous-flow pressurized liquid extraction (PLE), a clean, environmentally friendly method. The system aims to act as as a leishmanicidal, cicatrizant, and antibiotic agent, with reinforcement of the photodynamic therapy (PDT) action. Rheological and mechanical analyses, permeation studies and bioadhesiveness analyses on human skin, and PDT-mediated activation of Staphylococcus aureus were performed. The emulgels showed gelation between 13° and 15 °C, besides pseudoplastic and viscoelastic properties. Furthermore, the systems showed transdermal potential, by releasing chlorophylls and C. reticulata Ducke into the deep layers of human skin, with good bioadhesive performance. The application of PDT reduced three logarithmic colony-forming units of S. aureus bacteria. The results support the potential of the natural drug for future clinical trials in treating wounds and cutaneous leishmania.

Time Analysis of an Emergent Infection Spread Among Healthcare Workers: Lessons Learned from Early Wave of SARS-CoV-2.

To find whether an emergent airborne infection is more likely to spread among healthcare workers (HCW) based on data of SARS-CoV-2 and whether the number of new cases of such airborne viral disease can be predicted using a method traditionally used in weather forecasting called Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA). We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 spread among HCWs based on outpatient nasopharyngeal swabs for real-time polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) tests and compared it to non-HCW in the first and the second wave of the pandemic. We also generated an ARFIMA model based on weekly case numbers from February 2020 to April 2021 and tested it on data from May to July 2021. Our analysis of 8998 tests in the 15 months period showed a rapid rise in positive RT-PCR tests among HCWs during the first wave of pandemic. In the second wave, however, positive patients were more commonly non-HCWs. The ARFIMA model showed a long-memory pattern for SARS-CoV-2 (seven months) and predicted future new cases with an average error of ±1.9 cases per week. Our data indicate that the virus rapidly spread among HCWs during the first wave of the pandemic. Review of published literature showed that this was the case in multiple other areas as well. We therefore suggest strict policies early in the emergence of a new infection to protect HCWs and prevent spreading to the general public. The ARFIMA model can be a valuable forecasting tool to predict the number of new cases in advance and assist in efficient planning.

The Relationship between Knowledge of Women of Childbearing Age with Interest in Conducting IVA Examinations at the Simarpinggan Health Center, South Tapanuli Angkola District

Cervical Cancer is ranked second only to breast cancer which occurs a lot in women. In Indonesia, cervical cancer ranked second in 2020 data sources derived from the Global Burden of Cancer Study (Globocan) from the World Health Organization (WHO) noted, the total cancer cases in Indonesia in 2020 reached 396,914 cases and the total deaths were 234,511 cases. Breast cancer has the highest number of new cases in Indonesia at 65,858 cases or 16.6% of the total 396,914 cancer cases. Cervical (cervical) cancer ranks second with 36,633 cases or 9.2% of total cancer cases. This research is analytical using primary data. The design used in this study was a correlation study using 0.05 chi-square data analysis. Data collection through the distribution of questionnaires with a total sample of 30 respondents at the Simarpinggan Health Center, Angkola District, South Tapanuli.