Number Of Flood Events Research Articles

Impact of Simulated Twenty-First-Century Changes in Extratropical Cyclones on Coastal Flooding at the Battery, New York City

AbstractThis paper explores simulated changes to the cool-season (November–March) storm-surge and coastal-flooding events at the Battery in New York City, New York (NYC), during most of the twenty-first century using several climate models and a previously developed multilinear regression model. The surface wind and pressure forcing for the surge predictions are obtained from an ensemble of 6 coupled global climate models (GCM) and 30 members from the Community Earth System Model. Using the “RCP8.5” emission scenario, both the single-model and multimodel ensemble means yielded insignificant (significance level p > 0.05) simulated changes to the median surge event (>0.61 m above astronomical tide) between a historical period (1979–2004) and the mid-to-late twenty-first century (2054–79). There is also little change in the return interval for the moderate-to-high surge events. By the mid-to-late twenty-first century, there is a poleward shift of the mean surface cyclone track in many of the models and most GCMs demonstrate an intensification of the average cyclone. There is little effect on the future surge events at the Battery because most of these storm changes are not in a region that favors more or higher-amplitude surges at NYC. Rather, projected sea level rise dominates the future simulated change in the number of flooding events by the mid-to-late twenty-first century. For example, the projections show about 23 times as many coastal-flooding events (tide + surge ≥ 2.44 m above mean lower low water; 1983–2001) in 2079 when compared with 1979, and the return intervals for some major coastal floods (e.g., the December 1992 northeaster) decrease by a factor of 3–4.

Fluctuations of Lake Orta water levels: preliminary analyses

While the effects of past industrial pollution on the chemistry and biology of Lake Orta have been well documented, annual and seasonal fluctuations of lake levels have not yet been studied. Considering their potential impacts on both the ecosystem and on human safety, fluctuations in lake levels are an important aspect of limnological research. In the enormous catchment of Lake Maggiore, there are many rivers and lakes, and the amount of annual precipitation is both high and concentrated in spring and autumn. This has produced major flood events, most recently in November 2014. Flood events are also frequent on Lake Orta, occurring roughly triennially since 1917. The 1926, 1951, 1976 and 2014 floods were severe, with lake levels raised from 2.30 m to 3.46 m above the hydrometric zero. The most important event occurred in 1976, with a maximum level equal to 292.31 m asl and a return period of 147 years. In 2014 the lake level reached 291.89 m asl and its return period was 54 years. In this study, we defined trends and temporal fluctuations in Lake Orta water levels from 1917 to 2014, focusing on extremes. We report both annual maximum and seasonal variations of the lake water levels over this period. Both Mann-Kendall trend tests and simple linear regression were utilized to detect monotonic trends in annual and seasonal extremes, and logistic regression was used to detect trends in the number of flood events. Lake level decreased during winter and summer seasons, and a small but statistically non-significant positive trend was found in the number of flood events over the period. We provide estimations of return period for lake levels, a metric which could be used in planning lake flood protection measures.

Enhancing a Distributed Rainfall Intensity for Flood Analysis within a GIS Framework in an Urban Area (Kajang Flood)

The town of Kajang has experienced major flood events in previous decades since 1970s. Due to Eastern and Western Monsoon seasons in Malaysia, Kajang has potential to face with number of flood events. One of the critical elements in flood analysis is rainfall distribution. Therefore, flood studies need to have an optimum cognition of rainfall distribution as main input. In this study, HEC GeoHMS model was used in GIS (Geographic Information System) for Sungai Jeluh catchment (Kajang) due to estimation (visualization) of distributed rainfall in Kajang. In comparison with conventional methods, which they produced rainfall in lumped mode (e.g. Thiessen’s polygon), HEC GeoHMS visualized and tabulate a full distribution of rainfall for each small part (pixel of map) in a case study. HEC GeoHMS model for Sungai Jeluh has been set up by feeding high resolution of spatial and temporal resolution data (precipitation). Result of this study shows that rainfall by high intensity is distributed near urban area (downtown) in comparison with upstream which involved with less rainfall intensity.

Frequency of floods in a changing climate: a case study from the Red River in Manitoba, Canada

Abstract. Spring flooding in the Red River basin is a recurrent issue in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. There have been a number of flood events in recent years and climate change has been suggested as a potential cause. This paper employs a relatively simple model for predicting changes in the frequency distribution of annual spring peak discharge of the Red River as a response to increased GHG concentrations. A regression model is used to predict spring peak flow from antecedent precipitation in the previous fall, winter snow accumulation, and spring precipitation. Data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to estimate changes in the predictor variables and this information is then employed to derive flood distributions for future climate conditions. Most climate models predict increased precipitation during winter months but this trend is partly offset by a shorter snow accumulation period and higher winter evaporation rates. The means and medians of an ensemble of 16 climate models do not suggest a particular trend toward more or less frequent floods of the Red River. However, the ensemble range is relatively large, highlighting the difficulties involved in estimating changes in extreme events.

A Comparison of the Composition and Diversity of Tree Populations along a Hydrological Gradient in Floodplains (Southern Québec, Canada)

With the current climate changes, it is essential to understand the mechanisms that govern floods and flow regimes and their effects on the dynamics of riparian forests. The aim is to assess the effects of new hydrological conditions (increase in flood frequency) on forest stands subject to frequent floods. The sampling sites (total of 94 quadrats) are located in riverine woodlands, and the choice of location corresponds to the boundaries of the flood-risk zones established by official government maps. Our study shows that there are significant differences in the composition and diversity of forest communities following differences in the flood recurrence zones. In the active floodplains (i.e., recurrence interval of 0–20 years), the tree population stands are clearly distinguished from other intermediate flood zones (interval of 20–100 years). Differences are also noted in the structure of the communities, in particular in the frequent flood zones, which are characterized by a low renewal rate, low density and less-diversified forest stands. The frequent floods risk forest stand rejuvenation and creating decline as a result of increased tree mortality and the low renewal rate. With the expected increases in the number of flood events in the coming decades, there may be greater tree mortality and a gradual disappearance of the forest communities.

Review of Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation by Ramesh S. V. TeegavarapuCambridge University Press, New York; 2013; ISBN 978-1-107-01878-5; 285 pp., $120.00.

Review of <i>Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation</i> by Ramesh S. V. TeegavarapuCambridge University Press, New York; 2013; ISBN 978-1-107-01878-5; 285 pp., $120.00.

Flood susceptibility mapping using integrated bivariate and multivariate statistical models

Flooding can have catastrophic effects on human lives and livelihoods and thus comprehensive flood management is needed. Such management requires information on the hydrologic, geotechnical, environmental, social, and economic aspects of flooding. The number of flood events that took place in Busan, South Korea, in 2009 exceeded the normal situation for that city. Mapping the susceptible areas helps us to understand flood trends and can aid in appropriate planning and flood prevention. In this study, a combination of bivariate probability analysis and multivariate logistic regression was used to produce flood susceptibility maps of Busan City. The main aim of this research was to overcome the weakness of logistic regression regarding bivariate probability capabilities. A flood inventory map with a total of 160 flood locations was extracted from various sources. Then, the flood inventory was randomly split into a testing dataset 70 % for training the models and the remaining 30 %, which was used for validation. Independent variables datasets included the rainfall, digital elevation model, slope, curvature, geology, green farmland, rivers, slope, soil drainage, soil effect, soil texture, stream power index, timber age, timber density, timber diameter, and timber type. The impact of each independent variable on flooding was evaluated by analyzing each independent variable with the dependent flood layer. The validation dataset, which was not used for model generation, was used to evaluate the flood susceptibility map using the prediction rate method. The results of the accuracy assessment showed a success rate of 92.7 % and a prediction rate of 82.3 %.

Economic consequences of failed autonomous adaptation to extreme floods: A case study from Bangladesh

This paper focuses on ‘autonomous adaptation’ and has one aim. It assesses the economic consequences of the failure effects of autonomous adaptation in response to extreme flood events. The study found that Bangladeshi farmers are highly resilient to extreme flood events, but the economic consequences of failure effects of autonomous crop adaptation on marginal farmers are large. The failure effects are defined as total input costs plus the small profit (otherwise) made from selling the small surplus remaining from subsistence needs. The total input costs increase with the number of flood events in the studied area. Total agricultural cost includes cost of seedlings, fertilizer, pesticides, land preparation, human labour and watering. The paper concludes that the economic loss accelerates food insecurity and could ultimately lead to human insecurity in Bangladesh, which could be exacerbated by the effects of climate change.

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large-scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Event Flow Hydrograph–Based Method for Modeling Sediment Transport

AbstractA simple method, called the hydrograph-based method, is presented for estimating sediment transport during flood events in rivers. The method is characterized by the following features: (1) widely available flow hydrographs are used as primary input data; (2) the shear stress, shear velocity, and friction slope, calculated using a hydrograph, are employed to determine flow depth and velocity for a flood event; and (3) a conventional simple sediment transport formula is utilized in combination with the hydrograph-based flow parameters to estimate sediment transport during a flood event. The new hydrograph-based method is examined using a hypothetical hydrograph and demonstrated through applications to a number of flood events in two lowland rivers. The sediment concentrations predicted by the hydrograph-based method are found to be comparable or more accurate than those from the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System model, demonstrating the efficacy of the new method. The engineerin...

Bioassessment of the Rio Grande Upstream and Downstream of Los Alamos National Laboratory,New Mexico, USA

Benthic macroinvertebrates (aquatic insects) were collected from the Rio Grande upstream and downstream of Los Alamos Canyon (LAC), a major drainage that crosses Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) lands in northern New Mexico, USA. LAC contains legacy waste, including radionuclides and polychlorinated biphenyls, and occasionally discharges storm water and snowmelt flows to the Rio Grande. The Rio Grande is the major waterway that flows southward across the state. In 2009, rock baskets were placed in waters 61- to 76-cm-deep within each reach (five per reach), and, after approximately 6 weeks of colonization, the rock baskets were retrieved. All samples were sorted completely and organisms were identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. Both reaches in 2009 were dominated by the collector filtering net-spinning caddisfly, Hydropsyche occidentalis. In 2011, benthic macroinvertebrates were collected using D kick nets from shallow riffle locations (15- to 31-cm depth) from each reach (six per reach). These samples were collected after post- (Las Conchas) fire flooding events moved sediment and ash through the two study areas—the downstream reach, however, was affected by higher flows and greater number of flooding events than those affecting the upstream reach. Each kick net sample consisted of ten 1-m (kick) samples. The 10 subsamples were composited and organisms were picked from randomly selected cells in a sorting pan until 500 organisms had been identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. Both reaches in 2011 were dominated by the collector-gathering mayfly, Baetis tricaudatus. A bioassessment of the downstream reach compared with the upstream (reference) reach was conducted by scoring 10 metrics related to the structure and function of the benthic macroinvertebrate community. While 2009 ranked at the highest level (nonimpaired), 2011 ranked a level lower (slightly impaired). The slightly lower bioassessment score of the downstream reach in 2011 may be a result of flooding impacts following the Las Conchas fire rather than of LANL operations. Overall, based on the similarity of benthic macroinvertebrate metrics between reaches and the composition of benthic macroinvertebrates favoring pollution intolerant taxa, LANL influences, if any, via the LAC system to the Rio Grande are not significantly impacting water quality of the Rio Grande.

The variability of European floods since AD 1500

The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified; 1540–1600, 1640–1700, 1730–1790, 1790–1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension.

Copper Release, Speciation, and Toxicity Following Multiple Floodings of Copper Enriched Agriculture Soils: Implications in Everglades Restoration

This study characterizes the effects of water–soil flooding volume ratio and flooding time on copper (Cu) desorption and toxicity following multiple floodings of field-collected soils from agricultural sites acquired under the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) in south Florida. Soils from four field sites were flooded with three water–soil ratios (2, 4, and 6 [water] to 1 [soil]) and held for 14 days to characterize the effects of volume ratio and flooding duration on Cu desorption (volume ratio and flooding duration study). Desorption of Cu was also characterized by flooding soils four times from seven field sites with a volume ratio of 2 (water) to 1 (soil) (multiple flooding study). Acute toxicity tests were also conducted using overlying waters from the first flooding event to characterize the effects of Cu on the survival of fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas), cladocerans (Daphnia magna), amphipods (Hyalella azteca), midges (Chironomus tentans), duckweed (Lemna minor), and Florida apple snails (Pomacea paludosa). Acute tests were also conducted with D. magna exposed to overlying water from the second and third flooding events. Results indicate that dissolved Cu concentrations in overlying water increased with flooding duration and decreased with volume ratio. In the multiple flooding study, initial Cu concentrations in soils ranged from 5 to 223 mg/kg (dw) and were similar to Cu concentration after four flooding events, indicating retention of Cu in soils. Copper desorption was dependent on soil Cu content and soil characteristics. Total Cu concentration in overlying water (Cuw) was a function of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), alkalinity, and soil Cu concentration (Cus): log(Cuw) = 1.2909 + 0.0279 (DOC) + 0.0026 (Cus) − 0.0038 (alkalinity). The model was validated and highly predictive. Most of the desorbed Cu in the water column complexed with organic matter in the soils and accounted for 99% of the total dissolved Cu. Although total dissolved Cu concentrations in overlying water did not significantly decrease with number of flooding events, concentrations of free Cu2+ increased with the number of flooding events, due to a decrease in DOC concentrations. The fraction of bioavailable Cu species (Cu2+, CuOH+, CuCO3) was also less than 1% of the total Cu. Overlying water from the first flooding event was only acutely toxic to the Florida apple snail from one site. However, overlying water from the third flooding of six out of seven soils was acutely toxic to D. magna. The decrease in DOC concentrations and increase in bioavailable Cu2+ species may explain the changes in acute toxicity to D. magna. Results of this study reveal potential for high Cu bioavailability (Cu2+) and toxicity to aquatic biota overtime in inundated agricultural lands acquired under the CERP.

Surface soil water dynamics in pastures in northern New South Wales. 2. Surface runoff

Surface runoff can represent a significant part of the hydrological balance of grazed pastures on the north-west slopes of New South Wales, and is influenced by a range of rainfall characteristic, soil property, and pasture conditions. Runoff plots were established on grazed pastures at 3 sites as part of the Sustainable Grazing Systems National Experiment (SGS NE). Pastures were either native (redgrass, wallaby grass and wire grass) or sown species (phalaris, subterranean clover and lucerne) and a range of grazing management treatments were imposed to manipulate pasture herbage mass, litter mass and ground cover. Rainfall and runoff events were recorded using automatic data loggers between January 1998 and September 2001. Stored soil water in the surface layer (0–22.5 cm) was monitored continuously using electrical resistance sensors and automatic loggers. Pasture herbage mass, litter mass and ground cover were estimated regularly to provide information useful in interpreting runoff generation processes.Total runoff ranged from 6.6 mm at Manilla (0.3% of rainfall) to 185 mm at Nundle (5.7% of rainfall) for different grazing treatments, with the largest runoff event being recorded at Nundle (46.7 mm). Combined site linear regression analyses showed that soil depth, rainfall depth and rainfall duration explained up to 30.3% of the variation in runoff depth. For individual sites, these same variables were also important, accounting for 13.3–33.6% of the variation in runoff depth. Continuous monitoring of stored soil water in relation to these runoff events indicated that the majority of these events were generated by saturation excess, with major events in winter contributing substantially to regional flooding. Long-term simulation modelling (1957–2001) using the SGS Pasture Model indicated that most runoff events were generated in summer, which concurred with the number of flood events recorded at Gunnedah, NSW, downstream of the SGS sites. However, floods also occurred frequently in winter, but the simulations generated few runoff events at that time of the year. These results have important implications for sustainability of grazed pastures and long-term simulation modelling of the hydrological balance of such systems, since runoff generation processes are likely to vary both spatially and temporally for different rainfall events.

Identifying the natural flow regime and the relationship with riparian vegetation for two contrasting western Australian rivers

AbstractThe natural flow regime and the relationship between flows and riparian vegetation are described for sites on both the Blackwood River in south‐western Australia and the Ord River in north‐western Australia. Analysis of long‐term flow data showed the historic mean monthly river discharge for the Blackwood River is strongly seasonal and highly predictable with generally low variability each month. The Ord River showed a strong seasonality of flows with about 92% of the (total) yearly flow occurring between December and March. Flow variability was very high (e.g. coefficient of variation &gt;100% for all months) but highly predictable, with this mostly attributed to low but constant dry‐season flows. Water depth, duration of flood events and the number of flood events per year show a significant correlation with aspects of the riparian vegetation within experimental vegetation plots. Results highlight the strong relationship between floristics, life form structure and population dynamics with stream hydrology. On the Blackwood River, species richness and cover of shrubs reduced with increased duration and frequency of flooding, while cover of exotic species and annual herbs increased with increased flooding. Germination of tree seedlings was not influenced by flood regime but size class of tree species increased with flooding frequency. On the Ord River, species richness was not influenced by flooding regime. However, cover of perennial grasses increased with flooding frequency whilst cover of shrubs decreased. There was no relationship between flooding and seedling establishment whilst tree size class decreased with increased flooding. The methods described here can be used to compare the response of different components of the riparian vegetation to different fluvial regimes (e.g. because of impoundment and abstraction). This technique can be expanded for the management of riparian zones and planning rehabilitation programmes. It may also be useful for improving the ecological knowledge base for setting environmental flows in regulated systems. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.