Effective Number Of Parties Research Articles

Political System of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

TTurkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was established in the north of Cyprus after the intervention carried out by Türkiye in 1974, called the Cyprus Peace Operation, and declared its independence in 1983. The state, which is subjected to an international embargo in almost every area, especially in economics, politics, sports, and transportation, and therefore establishes its ties with the world through Türkiye, has had all the instruments that a democratic state should have in its domestic politics since its independence. This study deals with the political system of Northern Cyprus, which has not yet been studied comprehensively, and aims to fill an important gap in the literature. The study considers Northern Cyprus’ constitution, principle of separation of powers, form of government, ongoing democratic elections, electoral system, and party system in the context of political science literature. Utilizing historical narrative and constitutional review methods, as well as the effective number of parties (ENP) formulated by Laakso and Taagapera, the study examines the political system of Northern Cyprus together with its political history and culture.

Electoral rules and the two-party system: A methodological inquiry with reference to Duverger’s law

The law of Duverger posits that the single-member plurality electoral system favours the two-party system. The empirical tests of Duvergerian effects often rely on the effective number of parties as the most common measure of party system fragmentation. This study, proceeding from the notion that more focused measures of two-partyness could be of greater utility for this purpose, examines the build-up of two already existing, albeit underused, indices that are intended to operationalize the concept of the two-party system and introduces a new family of party-system indices for the purpose of cross-validation. The quantitative analysis performed on simulated and real-life datasets shows that the measures of two-partyness can improve the methods of inquiry in research on Duvergerian effects, and that some of the indices introduced in this study can serve as useful supplements to the toolkit of political science.

Institutional Factors and Agreement in Lawmaking

Contemporary democracies are undergoing a period of rising levels of polarization and fragmentation. At the same time, the degree of conflict in several parliaments, particularly in Europe, has significantly increased. Despite this, we know very little about conflict and consensus-building in parliaments. In this article, we analyze the degree of agreement in lawmaking in Spanish national and regional parliaments from 1977 to 2023. Using models for panel data we find that agreement between parties is higher when the effective number of parties is also higher, and when the incumbent party does not have a majority in parliament. However, contrary to our expectations and previous scholarship, ideological polarization does not have a significant effect on agreement. Additionally, specific characteristics of the bills have proven to have an impact on the degree of agreement.

When Congress Prevails: Veto Overrides and Legislative Fragmentation in Multiparty Legislatures

This study delves into the determinants of legislative overrides in multiparty legislatures, with a specific focus on the influence of partisan fragmentation within congress. Utilizing an original dataset spanning from 1995 to 2017, we examine the cases of Ecuador and Peru. Our argument posits that during lawmaking, a dispersed and fragmented party system prevents the president from anticipating the preferences of the congressional pivotal party. In such a scenario of incomplete information, the president’s capacity to introduce selective incentives through vetoes is limited. In this way, the president is less likely to break the congressional majority supporting a bill. Consequently, the vetoed bill becomes less acceptable compared to the original statute. This, in turn, provides the congressional majority with increased incentives to uphold the original bill, elevating the likelihood of a legislative override. In alignment with this rationale, our findings indicate that an increase in the effective number of parties (ENP) has a positive and significant impact on the probability of a legislative override. Additionally, our evidence underscores a noteworthy contrast between the relatively high rate of legislative overrides in Latin America and findings for the US case.

Evaluating electoral reforms and its consequences in Indonesia and Thailand (2000–2023)

This article investigates electoral reforms in Indonesia and Thailand in the 21st century, highlighting important dimensions of the electoral changes and their consequences in disproportionality and the effective number of parties. In the first stage, we identify electoral changes and the ideal goals of electoral reform. Second, we compare each election's results by calculating disproportional results and the effective number of parties, followed by in-depth interviews with key stakeholders (N = 8) to uncover the evaluation and recommendation for a better future of the electoral system in both countries. The analysis reveals the government's motivation behind the electoral system chosen. In Indonesia, the reforms addressed realising the limited pluralism party system raised a thorny debate among small to medium parties about rescuing their seats in parliament. Otherwise, the Thai government accommodates small parties by waiving the electoral threshold. We identify that different people in positions of power in each country cause different ideal goals. This research contributes to developing an understanding that elite motivation outweighs the public good in designing electoral reform. While in Thailand the control to determine which electoral system is chosen seems more centralised by the junta military, the shift of the electoral system in Indonesia is strongly motivated by political actors in order to gain their pragmatic interests.

Extreme events, decentralisation and the effective number of parties

ABSTRACT An examination of eleven Western democracies reveals that widespread crises like the Great Recession and COVID-19 spurred increases in the number of parties with the effect of the recession proportional to its depth. The impact of these crises, however, depended upon the level and the type of regional decentralisation. Regions with stronger autonomous control over their own affairs – known as self-rule – had fewer additional parties than regions with little internal power. In contrast, regions that possess powers giving them greater influence over central government actions – known as shared rule – saw a greater increase in the number of parties than regions lacking these powers.

Proportional representation and party fragmentation in electoral autocracies

ABSTRACT What is the relationship between the type of electoral system and the degree of party fragmentation in electoral autocracies? According to Duverger’s hypothesis, proportional representation (PR) is positively associated with party fragmentation. This study investigates whether this hypothesis holds true in non-democratic political systems that hold elections. I propose that, unlike in democracies, PR is negatively correlated with the level of party fragmentation in electoral autocracies. To test this hypothesis, I utilize panel data encompassing 37 non-democratic nations that held elections from 1975 to 2010. The results demonstrate that PR is inversely linked to both the number and size of political parties. The effective number of parties (ENP) is employed as a measure of party fragmentation, estimating the weighted size and quantity of political parties.

Electoral competition, district party fragmentation and environmental policy outcome: Empirical evidence from Indonesia

This paper explores how party fragmentation and electoral competition relate to the outcome of environmental policy. It is assumed that when elections happen the electoral punishment and incentives will be distributed. Specifically, when there are high number of effective number parties (ENP) in the legislature, it brings competition to the incumbent to provide more public goods. Hence, the electoral competition and party fragmentation will bring more provision of public goods. Using these assumptions, the electoral competition theory provides basic pieces of information to predict the effect of electoral competition on environmental policy outcome; a high ENP will provide a better outcome of environmental policy. Taking Indonesia as our case selection, we discovered a positive association between the number of effective parties and energy efficiency, such as LED, and a negative correlation between the usage of wood for domestic fuel. This means that political competition such as electoral competition promotes better outcome for environmental policy.

STATIC AND DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF THE KAZAKHSTANI PARTY SYSTEM

The purpose of the present article is to analyze the electoral returns of the Kazakhstani elections held in the 1995-2021 period to estimate both the static (such as frag-mentation) and the dynamic properties (fluidity) of the Kazakhstani party system. In addition to estimating the fragmentation and the instability of the party system resulting from parlia-mentary elections, the paper explores the relationship between the static properties of a party system, such as the level of party system fragmentation, and its dynamic properties, such as the level of fluidity of the party system. By doing so, the article reveals that the decrease in the level of fragmentation, measured on the basis of Rae’s index of fractionalization and Laakso and Taagepera’s Effective Number of Parties, was responsible for the growing insta-bility (fluidity) of the Kazakhstani party system.

Broadcasting party information: Can the introduction of community radio reduce the effective number of parties?

The introduction of a more majoritarian electoral system is expected to result in the consolidation of a party system as predicted by institutionalists. However, voters must have information on party viability and be able to coordinate with other voters within a constituency for an electoral system reform to have the expected outcome. I argue that the introduction of independent local radio frequencies can promote party consolidation by enabling coordination on viable candidates because of better information that becomes common knowledge. The effective number of parties (ENEP) is expected to be lower in constituencies where a larger proportion of voters listen to local radio. To test this hypothesis, access to television signals is used as an instrument for radio listening behavior to address potential reverse causality. Using 2SLS, I find that an increase in one standard deviation in regular radio listening is associated with a decrease of 0.42 ENEP in Thailand.

Form of government, electoral system, and party system fragmentation: A global comparison

This study aims to determine the characteristics of party systems within the context of electoral systems, forms of government, and continents. There is no study in the literature that quantitatively reveals the relationship between the party system and forms of government. Furthermore, this study differs from other studies in that it deals with the relationship between the electoral system and the party system on a global scale. In the study, the effective number of parties (ENEP and ENPP) was calculated for the last three legislative elections of the countries governed by presidential, president–parliamentary, premier–presidential and parliamentary forms of government, using the Laakso–Taagepera Index. The dataset was then analyzed with ANOVA and post-hoc tests. The study revealed that party systems do not differ significantly from forms of government, that is, forms of government do not determine party systems. Similarly, party systems do not significantly differ in terms of the continents, that is, there are no continental party system characteristics of the forms of government. Also, the study confirmed that it is the electoral system that determines the party systems.

Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP): A Longue Durée Analysis

ABSTRACT This article employs regressive and spatial analyses to understand the correlates of the CHP’s electoral support from the first competitive elections in 1950 to the present. We find that despite some continuities in its constituency, the CHP’s voter base has changed significantly with regards to key political and social dynamics such as the Kurdish vote, effective number of parties, and urbanization. The findings give credence to the role of political leadership as well as the evolutionary capability of the party, both of which can have important implications regarding the future electoral trajectory of the party and of Turkey’s political regime.

The effect of uncertainty on building blocks in molecules.

Probabilities to find a chosen number of electrons in flexible domains of space are calculated for highly correlated wave functions. Quantum mechanics can produce higher probabilities for chemically relevant arrangements of electrons in these regions. However, the probability to have a given arrangement, e.g., that corresponding to chemical formulas (bonds or atoms), is low although being often maximal. Like in valence bond theory, it is useful to consider alternative distributions of electrons. Exchanges of electrons should be considered not only between atoms but also between other types of regions, such as those attributed to lone pairs. It is useful to have definitions flexible enough to allow users to find the most relevant representations. We tentatively suggest a tool (the effective number of parties) to help one make the choice.

Jumping on the Bandwagon? Explaining fluctuations in party membership levels in Europe

ABSTRACT This paper explores how party-specific contextual factors explain variations in membership levels. Based on a subset of MAPP data that includes 2898 yearly membership data points for 262 parties in 24 countries over a period from 1990 to 2014, it examines three sets of explanations: the lifecycle model (party age), the bandwagon model (electoral performances and governemental participation), and the competition model (effective number of parties). Our results confirm that membership ratios present an overall decreasing trend across parties over time. At the same time, we show that this trend is flattening and that there are important variations across parties. Fluctuations of membership are part of a party’s lifecycle. Our results also point toward a bandwagon effect whereby party membership levels increase or decrease according to electoral performances, and to a patronage boost linked to governmental participation. Finally, we show that party system fragmentation decreases individual parties’ membership ratios. Overall, our findings complement the story on party membership decline and calls for further investigations of party-specific explanations.

Extending the Laakso-Taagepera Index to integrate both party and ethnicity

We show how to extend the Laakso-Taagepera measure of the effective number of parties so as to incorporate both party and ethnicity in a way that allows both ethnic-specific, party-specific, and composite measures that we refer to as extended L-T indices. While the aim of this article is methodological, we also illustrate our approach with U.S. two-party data from presidential elections, using two-group, three-group, and five-group categorizations of ethnicities to show how party ethnicization in that country has grown since 1952. For comparison, and to show the generality of our approach to situations with more than two parties, we present data from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina ( Federacija Bosne i Hercegovine), where we have three ethnic groups but also more than two parties.

Political competition and public healthcare: Evidence from India

• We examine the causal effect of political competition, measured as the effective number of parties (ENP), on healthcare provision in India. • We find that a 1 SD increase in ENP, raises the probability that a village has a health facility by 8%–15% across different facility-types. • By contrast, we do not observe ENP to exert a robust impact in affecting any of the indicators of health-centre capacity. • We show that prioritizing highly visible health centre access over less visible health centre capacity is electorally rewarding for incumbents. • We find that election-year cycles affect small-budget consumption items while political alignment affects sizeable public investment. In this paper, we examine the causal effect of political competition on public provision of healthcare. Specifically, we investigate whether the effect of political competition on more visible public goods (e.g. health centre access) differs from its impact on less visible public goods (e.g. health centre capacity such as doctors, medical supplies, etc.). Using granular data from three recent waves of the Indian District Level Household Survey (DLHS) during 2002–2013 and an instrumental variable approach, we find that incumbents respond to electoral competition, measured as the effective number of parties (ENP), by trading-off less visible health centre capacity for more visible access to health centres. We provide suggestive evidence that focusing on more visible health centres boosts the incumbent party’s re-election prospects providing a clear motive for incumbent’s action. In addition, we examine the effect of election-year cycles and the role of political alignment in healthcare provision and find compelling evidence of a political economic mechanism at work. By contrast, political competition has no measurable impact on key health outcomes. We conduct several robustness checks to ensure that our estimates are reliable. Thus, our results suggest that electoral competition must be accompanied by strong checks on accountability to improve health outcomes.

Party system polarization and the effective number of parties

Polarization is a key characteristic of party systems, but scholars disagree about how polarization relates to the number of parties in a system. Different authors find positive, negative, or null relationships. I claim that when polarization is measured using the weighted standard deviation of standardized party positions, seat-level polarization is equal to NS−112+NS−1, where NS is the effective number of seat-winning parties. This relationship is what one would expect if parties were drawn randomly from a super-population with an effective sample size somewhere between the effective and raw number of parties. I test this claim using multiple datasets which report party positions and seat shares, before extending my analysis to consider vote-level polarization, the range of positions, and polarization in presidential and parliamentary regimes. My work extends the Taageperaan research agenda of building interlocking networks of equations relating key quantities of electoral and party systems.

REGIONAL PARTY SYSTEM OF NORTHERN IRELAND: EROSION OF BIPOLARITY

The subject of the article is the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland in 2000-2010s, as well as the factors contributing to the observed changes. The research is based on the theoretical framework of J. Lane and S. Ersson and is chronologically outlined by the period of 1998-2021. Cross-temporal comparative analysis was used as a key research method. The parameters of the comparative analysis include the following variables: number of parties, effective number of parties, number of significant parties, fragmentation of the party system, ideological polarization and electoral instability. The first part of the article is devoted to the characteristics of the theoretical and methodological research design. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland, which is based on the study of structural and ideological elements. In the final part, the results and key findings of the study are presented, including the characteristics of the key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system. The results of the study demonstrate the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland regarding two parameters - electoral stability and ideological polarization. The degree of electoral stability of the regional party is slightly decreasing due to the redistribution of electoral preferences from unionist parties to alternative ones. The change in the parameter of ideological polarization of the regional party system is observed in two directions - the erosion of bipolarity, as well as the centripetal tendencies of ideologically extreme party actors. The key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland at the present stage are the following: instability of the regional political system based on ethno-confessional criteria; the issue of European Union membership and the future status of Northern Ireland; changes in the demographic structure of the regional community.

A Reassessment of the Turkish Party System

Modern political institutions have a long history in Turkey but because of limited competition until 1945 and military interventions in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997, the party system has not developed consistently. Moreover, the electoral system, particularly the 10% electoral threshold applied after 1980, directly affected the Turkish party system. Having been interrupted by non-democratic forces and attempted to be formed via political engineering, the development of Turkish political parties and party systems has not been linear. In recent years, there has been an increasing amount of literature on the Turkish party system. However, since most studies were based on inadequate empirical data and limited to the 1990s and the 2000s, they have generally focused on the predominant party system and failed to critically review discussions on party systems. This paper analyzes Turkish party systems from 1950 to the present using the quantitative method. Adopting the criteria of the number of relevant parties and their relative strengths, this study applies different indicators such as the effective number of parties and fragmentation. This paper argues that Turkey has experienced four main different forms of party systems since 1950: a two-party system (1950-1960 and 2002), a two and a half party system (1960-1980), a moderate multiparty system with a balance among parties (1991-1999), and a moderate multiparty system with one dominant party (1983-1987, and 2007-2018).

What Makes Party Systems Different? A Principal Component Analysis of 17 Advanced Democracies 1970–2013

AbstractParty systems, that is, the number and the size of all the parties within a country, can vary greatly across countries. I conduct a principal component analysis on a party seat share dataset of 17 advanced democracies from 1970 to 2013 to reduce the dimensionality of the data. I find that the most important dimensions that differentiate party systems are: “the size of the biggest two parties” and the level of “competition between the two biggest parties.” I use the results to compare the changes in electoral and legislative party systems. I also juxtapose the results to previous party system typologies and party system size measures. I find that typologies sort countries into categories based on variation along both dimensions. On the other hand, most of the current political science literature use measures (e.g., the effective number of parties) that are correlated with the first dimension. I suggest that instead of these, indices that measure the opposition structure and competition could be used to explore problems pertaining to the competitiveness of the party systems.