Nuclear Program Research Articles

Historical lessons of the Orion and NERVA projects: Managing public opinion and political uncertainty in space programs

This publication examines the history of Project Orion and NERVA nuclear engine program within the Integrated Program Plan, the technical reasons for their study, their progress, and the political reasons for their cancellation. Whether pulsed or thermal, nuclear propulsion offers the best compromise in efficiency and thrust for the propulsion of future manned missions. Project Orion was born in the mind of Stanislaw Ulam, an atomic physicist who had worked on the Manhattan project. Despite theoretical performances superior to anything conceivable even with current technologies, and despite the mobilisation of some of the most brilliant physicists of the time (Freeman Dyson), the project was killed by the Treaty banning nuclear weapon tests in the atmosphere, in outer space and under water (Moscow, 5 August 1963). The Integrated Program Plan was Wernher von Braun's proposal to the Space Task Group (STG), chaired by Vice President Spiro Agnew, for the continuation of the Apollo program. This plan envisaged a lunar base in the 1970s, and a first manned mission to Mars in the early 1980s. All of this would have been powered by nuclear-powered orbital shuttles, using NERVA, a nuclear engine tested and operational since 1968. Here again, even though it performed better than anything else in the world, even today, the project failed politically. This retrospective publication therefore aims to answer the following question: How can nuclear space programs of today and tomorrow be protected from the uncertainties of this influence?The study of propulsion systems is very often left to engineers, and political and public relations issues to politicians. However, every technology is the result of a political system, and has a strategic impact, which is a subject for social and political sciences. That's why this paper adopts an original approach crossing social sciences through the historical study of decision-making dynamics, and engineering through the study of the technical characteristics of the projects involved. This publication is based on declassified technical reports, testimonies of the personalities of the time, and a document from the archives of the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library. History can be the academic bridge between political and technical studies. In a context of resurgence of nuclear propulsion projects throughout the world, such an approach is now necessary both at the historical level and in terms of political decisions making. Indeed, space programs involving nuclear energy are, by nature, at the crossroads of public relations issues very specific to both space and atomic subjects.

A Constructivist Analysis of the Establishment of the AUKUS Security Pact and its Implications for Regional Stability in the Indo-Pacific

This article attempts to shed light on AUKUS formation based on constructivist perspective and its implications for regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. Using a qualitative approach with a case study method, this article found that the formation of AUKUS is strongly influenced by two fundamental elements of constructivism: identity and interests. Identity refers to the shared ideas among the Anglo-Saxon nations (including Canada and New Zealand). Nevertheless, New Zealand tends not to join AUKUS due to its commitment to non-proliferation, while Canada seems to contribute nothing to the nuclear submarine program. The interests of the AUKUS alliance are: the US desires to strengthen its hegemony in the Indo-Pacific and rebalance China’s domination; the UK craves to become the first European country to enhance alliance cooperation in the Indo-Pacific after Brexit; and Australia’s willingness to modernize its military capability and affirms its commitment to which allies it counts on in the future. The implications of establishing AUKUS might include: undermining the status quo in the region concerning a nuclear-free zone, weakening existing cooperation agreements and reducing mutual trust between traditional allies, and bringing catastrophe to the region by triggering an armed race.   Keywords: AUKUS; China; Constructivism; Indo-Pacific; Regional Stability  

South Korean Nuclear Aspiration and its Impact on Regional Security

This paper explores the complex and multifaceted challenges surrounding South Korea's nuclear weapons programme. It is recognised that as a key player in the regional and global security landscape, South Korea's decisions on this issue will have far-reaching implications for the future of international security and stability. Drawing on the Nuclear Revolution Theory, the paper examines the potential benefits and drawbacks of possessing nuclear weapons, as well as the historical context and regional security considerations that have shaped South Korea's past interest in a nuclear weapons programme. The study also analyses the current geopolitical landscape, including the danger posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and US policy on nuclear proliferation. The viability of the nuclear weapons programme and its implications for South Korea are assessed through qualitative reasoning. The South Korean potentials for nuclear proliferation, its negative impact on global non-proliferation efforts, its deterrence value against North Korea and regional security benefits are examined. Alternatives to pursuing a nuclear weapons programme, such as strengthening conventional military capabilities and diplomatic efforts to denuclearise the Korean peninsula are also discussed.

The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Nuclear Non-Proliferation: The Case of Iran (2005-15)

ABSTRACT Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal has defied the conventional wisdom over the futility of imposing economic sanctions to curtail its nuclear programme. However, the existing literature remains theoretically ill-equipped to deal with the complexities of the Iranian case. By developing a theoretical framework that elaborates on the causal pathways through which economic sanctions affect both the supply (constraints on the nuclear programme) and demand (domestic politics) sides of nuclear proliferation, the case of Iran is examined from the faltering of international nuclear negotiations in 2005 until the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015. In achieving this outcome, the demand-side pathway played a more decisive role than the supply-side pathway as it contributed to the formation of a broad-based coalition that was able to side-line the hardline neo-Principalists and pursue a path of negotiation and nuclear rollback.

Sorption of ruthenium on aniline-siloxane composites

ABSTRACT Indian nuclear energy program adopts the closed fuel cycle, which involves reprocessing of the spent fuel and offers an option for the recovery of valuables from radioactive waste. Some of the useful isotopes present in radioactive wastes, of societal and industrial applications, are 137Cs, 90Sr, Platinum Groups Metals (PGMs: Pd, Rh, and Ru), 238Pu, 241Am, etc. Among PGMs, Ru is used in electrical, electrochemical industries and radioactive isotope of Ru is being applied for the treatment of eye cancer. In the present work, we are focusing on the pre-concentration of Ru from aqueous media by sorption method. Sorption studies were carried out using inactive Ru as well as its radiotracers. EDXRF, γ-ray spectrometry and spectrophotometry were used as the tools for monitoring the sorption processes. For preliminary studies, polyaniline and manganese dioxide were used as sorbents. The sorption was found to be better using polyaniline. For the ease of separation process, composite polymers of aniline with tetraethoxysilane were synthesized and used. The composites were characterized using SEM-EDS, FTIR and elemental analysis techniques. Sorption studies with and without presence of Zr were done with the aim of separation of radioactive Ru from irradiated Zr alloy and recovery of Ru.

Ploughshares and Swords: India's Nuclear Program in the Global Cold War by Jayita Sarkar (review)

Ploughshares and Swords: India's Nuclear Program in the Global Cold War by Jayita Sarkar (review)

Technification and Securitisation: The Mechanism of ‘Rendering Technical’ in Polish Nuclear Energy Politics

Technology is changing how we live our lives – of this there is no doubt. But how technology affects political deliberation, through which pathways, and how such processes compare to other forms of social mechanisms at play are less clear. Critical security studies have yet to reflect much on this. While the Copenhagen School outlined the workings of the securitisation mechanism and inspired further research into its dynamic together with analytical enquiries into other grammars, logics and security mechanisms operating in different sectors, the role of ‘the technical’ in the broader political processes remains under-researched. The article conceptualises the social mechanism of technification, outlines three possible forms to be found in practice and illustrates them using the example of the development of the nuclear energy program in Poland. Technification et sécurisation : « Techniciser » les politiques énergétiques nucléaires en Pologne

Uranium supply potential from imported phosphate rocks for the Philippine nuclear power program

The Philippines is planning to rehabilitate its mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to provide affordable electricity and meet carbon emission goals. Despite not having domestic uranium resources, the Philippines import considerable amounts of phosphate rock for mineral fertilizer production that is known to contain between 50-200 mg uranium per kg ore. Recovering the uranium from phosphate rock during wet-phosphoric acid (WPA) production, the process used in the Philippines, is a mature technology that was used at fertilizer plants in Florida in the 1980s and 1990s before decreasing uranium prices made it unprofitable. Uranium prices are bound to rise again, and this work estimates the amount of uranium that could be recovered during WPA production in the Philippines. We estimate that between 14.4-25.6 t natural uranium could have theoretically been recovered annually in 2020, 2021 and 2022. This amount is equivalent to approximately 12-21% of the projected annual uranium requirements of the BNPP. Phosphate rock imports into the Philippines are still below pre-Typhoon Haiyan levels and when the industry recovers it is likely that more than one-fourth of the uranium requirements of the BNPP could be met with unconventional uranium recovered from imported phosphate rocks.

CONCEPTUALISING THE ROLE OF INDIA IN NORTH KOREA`S DENUCLEARISATION

The US and its allies perceive North Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons as a significant strategic challenge in the region. Diplomatic efforts have been made to persuade the Kim regime to abandon its nuclear programme, but they have failed. The DPRK considers nuclear weapons capability vital for deterrence against external threats and strategically crucial for national defence. India, a key US ally in containing China, has taken a stiffer stance towards Pyongyang's nuclear programme while enhancing its role in contributing to North Korea's denuclearisation. It represents itself as a staunch opponent of nuclear proliferation and the development of sophisticated weapons. This paper explores India's role in North Korea's perceived denuclearisation. It highlights that India has adopted a dual-standard approach to nuclear proliferation and sophisticated weapons and is also trying to create a technological nexus between Pakistan and North Korea, allegedly to achieve strategic ambitions in South Asia and assert pressure on Pakistan with the help of the US and its Western allies.   Bibliography Entry Kakar, Sher Ali and Muhammad Adil Khan. 2023. "Conceptualising the Role of India in North Korea’s Denuclearisation." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 166-175.

JCPOA revival: A game theoretical approach

This article employs game theory to analyze the potential revitalization of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the factors that influence the decision-making processes of Iran and the United States. The JCPOA, an agreement signed in 2015, placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. However, the situation shifted dramatically when the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018. Despite recent negotiations and renewed hopes for a revival of the JCPOA, events such as the inauguration of Iran’s conservative president and ongoing conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a stalemate. This article explores the policy options available to each party and assesses their associated risks and benefits. By applying game theory, it offers a more precise understanding of the strategies employed by both actors and the potential future of the JCPOA. The analysis ultimately concludes that it is highly improbable that the JCPOA will be revived in the near future. Sanctions are likely to remain in place while Iran continues to maintain ambiguity regarding its nuclear program. A major transformation would be required to fundamentally alter the current situation.

Soviet Response to the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom)

This article discusses the way the USSR reacted to the creation of the supranational European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). The authors believe that the Soviet criticism of German and French nuclear programs was, at least, partially, objective and non-ideological. The study featured documents on Soviet foreign policy that described the initial reaction of the USSR to the Euratom plans, suggested alternative options for European cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear energy, and showed the evolution of the Soviet approach to European integration. Western Europe and the United States had their own goals in the development of the peaceful nuclear industry in Europe. The fears expressed by the USSR were related to the membership of the Federal Republic of Germany in Euratom and the role the United States intended to assume in this organization. Eventually, Moscow accepted a more neutral position in relation to the Euratom and other integration processes in Western Europe.

Saudi Arabia's nuclear energy ambition and its compliance with IAEA guidelines for newcomers: An overview

This research article explores the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) efforts to meet its increasing electricity demand and reduce its reliance on fossil fuels by integrating nuclear energy into its energy mix. KSA aims to achieve a clean energy mix of 50% by 2030, including nuclear energy. The paper discusses KSA's progress in developing its nuclear power infrastructure, including the establishment of the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE), and Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission (NRRC). KSA has followed the IAEA “Milestones Approach” and conducted the first Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) to ensure compliance with international standards and regulations. The article highlights the Kingdom's commitment to fulfilling international conventions and treaties related to nuclear power generation and its determination to achieve its VISION 2030 nuclear power generation targets. The paper provides an overview of the progress made by KSA towards introducing nuclear energy and underscores the measures taken to ensure the safety and security of the nuclear program.

What Drives Nuclear-Aspiring States? The Cases of Iran and North Korea

Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons? In other words, what drives nuclear-aspiring states? This is the basic question that the author seeks to address in this research. To do so, this research will focus on two standout cases: Iran and North Korea. By employing structural realism as a tool of analysis, the author argues that it is the structure of the international system that drives both Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons of their own. Specifically, it is the highly unequal distribution of power both regionally and globally that encourages both states to go nuclear. At the global level, both Iran and North Korea found themselves in hostilities with a much more powerful state, the United States. The hostilities and the fact that the United States is way more powerful increase the fear of being attacked in both countries. Similarly, at the regional level, both states face neighbors that are relatively more powerful and have alliances with the United States. Thus, this imbalance of power and the fear it created in both Iran and North Korea give them great incentive to go nuclear, as nuclear weapons would act as a deterrent against any possible aggression. This research is qualitative and based on the literature study data collection method. Keywords: Nuclear proliferation; national security; distribution of capabilities; structural realism REFERENCES   Abulof, Uriel. 2014. "Revisiting Iran’s nuclear rationales." International Politics 51(3), 404-415. Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. 2010. "Iran’s Nuclear Program." In The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, edited by Robin Wright, 77-81. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Pres.  Bowen, W.Q., and J. Brewer. 2011. "Iran’s nuclear challenge: Nine years and counting." International Affairs 87(4): 923–943.  Chubin, S. 2007. "Iran: Domestic politics and nuclear choices." In Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy, edited by A.J. Tellis, M. Wills and N. Bisley, 301–340. Washington DC: National Bureau of Asian Research.  Cronin, Patrick M. 2008. "The Trouble with North Korea." In Double Trouble: Iran and North Korea as Challenges to International Security, edited by Patrick M. Cronin, 79-89. Wesport: Praeger Security International  Buszynski, Leszek. 2021. "North Korea's Nuclear Diplomacy." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, -170. Oxon: Routledge.  Donnelly, Jack. 2005. "Realism." In Theories of International Relations, edited by Scott Burchill, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Christian Reus-Smit Matthew Paterson and Jacqui True, 29-54. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.  Greitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2020. "Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." In The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, by John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 465-480. 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Foreign Affairs 70(1), 23-33. Mærli, Morten Bremer, and Sverre Lodgaard. 2007. "Introduction." In Nuclear Proliferation and International Security, edited by Morten Bremer Mærli and Sverre Lodgaard, 1-5. Oxon: Routledge.  Mearsheimer, John J. 2018. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press.  —. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: WW Norton & Company. Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.  Pollack, Jonathan D. 2011. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security. New York: Routledge.  Popoola, Michael Akin, Deborah Ebunoluwa Oluwadara, and Abiodun A. Adesegun. 2019. "North Korea Nucler Proliferation in the Context of the Realist Theory: A Review." European Journal of Social Sciences 58(1), 75-82.  Porter, Patrick. 2015. The Global Village Myth: Distance, War and the Limits of Power. 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Reliability Assessment of Nuclear Thermal Engine Configuration and Health Monitoring System

Today’s space nuclear technology programs are often confronted with two fundamental challenges early in the project life cycle: 1) development and testing will be more expensive than a non-nuclear alternative, and 2) the consequences of failure will be more severe. As a result, many space nuclear programs have been designed to minimize testing and maximize their probability of success: their reliability. The United States' Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Applications Program recognized these facts early on, and by 1961 the program’s primary objective set safety and reliability as the overriding considerations. This focus on reliability greatly influenced the engine's design towards minimizing the possible number of catastrophic failures modes. As such, the final configuration heavily relied on duplicate components for redundancy, including duplicate turbopumps. Despite these efforts, at program cancellation in 1972, the non-nuclear subsystem only achieved a mission predicted reliability of 33%. Some of the most significant contributions to rocket engine reliability in the last 50 years have been from advancements in the Health Monitoring System (HMS). Through rigorous instrumentation and control an engine's HMS has the potential to convert over 90% of a system's catastrophic failure modes to a safe shutdown situation. Due to this, many modern rocket engine designs no longer require redundant components and can prioritize performance-enhancing configurations over those that inherently minimize failure modes. Unfortunately, a standard liquid rocket engine HMS will likely not be compatible with a nuclear rocket engine (NRE). The HMS for a liquid rocket engine most often prevents catastrophic failure by shutting off flow to the combustion chamber. This would not work for a NRE, as removing propellant flow to the reactor could result in reactor overheating and meltdown. Maintaining flow to the reactor is often essential for safe NRE operation, such that reliance on an advanced HMS system alone may not be sufficient. This work investigates the feasibility of an NRE HMS by comparing the HMS designs for liquid rocket engines and terrestrial nuclear power plants and evaluates the necessity for redundant components to maximize overall system reliability. Keywords: Nuclear Thermal Propulsion, Nuclear Rocket Engine, Reliability, Fault Prevention, Fault Tolerance, Turbopump

The Impact of Iran's Nuclear Program on Iranian-American Relations (2010-2021)

Objectives: This paper explores the relationship between Iran and the U.S., focusing on Iran's nuclear program. It examines how successive U.S. administrations have addressed the issue and analyzes the responses of newly elected Presidents of the U.S. and Iran, as well as the Prime Minister of Israel, to the ongoing Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations using an analytical approach.
 Methods: The study employs an analytical methodology derived from the fields of political and social sciences, moving beyond traditional approaches in international relations.
 Results: The paper argues that Iran's development and acquisition of nuclear weapons, as a regional power, pose a direct threat to regional stability and may trigger a nuclear arms race. The interests of the U.S. and its allies in the region would also be endangered.
 Conclusions: The paper concludes that both Washington and Tehran should reach a mutually beneficial agreement to maintain regional power balance and prevent the potential for an arms race, especially with the seventh round of negotiations approaching. As Iran pursues destabilizing regional ambitions in the Middle East, posing a strategic threat to U.S. interests and allies, the U.S. should reassess its Middle East policy to ensure that Iran does not exploit sanctions relief and its remaining nuclear energy capacity to expand its revolutionary agenda throughout the region.

The Many Faces of Credibility: Hawks, Doves, and Nuclear Disarmament

The conventional wisdom in international relations holds that an actor’s past record of keeping her word determines her cooperative credibility, and that mutual perceptions of credibility are essential in sustaining cooperation. Yet competing reputation-skeptic and psychological perspectives dispute this conventional wisdom, suggesting that assessments of cooperative credibility result from observers’ judgments about the other’s capabilities and interests or observers’ foreign policy orientations. How do observers assess others’ cooperative credibility? We field a nationally representative survey experiment asking 2,953 Americans to evaluate a hypothetical coercer’s commitment to lift sanctions on a would-be proliferator in exchange for the latter dismantling its nascent nuclear program. We vary the coercer’s previous behavior plus several other contextual factors. We find that respondents’ hawkishness interacts with the coercer’s past actions to shape respondents’ credibility assessments and their support for the proliferator accepting the proposal, with substantial implications for theories of misperception and bargaining.

IRAN'S LOOK EAST POLICY: A STEP TOWARDS COUNTERING WESTERN PRESSURES

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, relations between Iran, the US, and its allies have deteriorated. The US and the West pressurised Iran by imposing sanctions, especially after the Iranian hostage crisis and the development of its nuclear programme. Iran wanted to counter Israeli nuclear ambitions by developing its programme but had to face sanctions. Due to these sanctions, Iran's economy suffered severely. Despite having vast energy resources in the form of oil and gas, it could not achieve its full economic potential. During Hassan Rouhani's presidency, Iran signed a nuclear deal (JCPOA) with the US-led Western alliance. Still, the unilateral withdrawal of the US under Donald Trump proved that compromise between Iran and the US is almost impossible from their present standpoints. In this situation, Iran had to find other partners to help it counter the Western pressures for its economic survival. TheOriental powers like Russia and China provided a good opportunity for Iran to counter sanctions. Therefore, Iran also began to focus on other Eurasian and Southeast Asian economies. This research analyses Iran's Look East Policy, especially under President Ibrahim Raisi. It critically examines how Iran can implement its Look East Policy under ongoing regional and international scenarios, what the hurdles will be in implementing this policy, and what the prospects will be. To answer these questions, Realism can be a most relevant theoretical perspective. According to Morgenthau's six principles of Realism, international politics are shaped by a state's interests, especially regarding power.
  
  
 Bibliography Entry
 Abbas, Syed Qandil (2023) “Iran's Look East Policy: A Step Towards Countering Western Pressures” NDU Journal. 37: 59-72.

Evaluating the performance of Indonesia’s nuclear energy program using INPRO methodology

Abstract A project was initiated to assess the sustainability of Indonesia’s planned nuclear energy system using the IAEA INPRO Methodology to develop an awareness of sustainability issues to support nuclear energy development strategic planning and decision making. Accordingly, for a nuclear energy system to be sustainable, fulfilment of current needs should not compromise the ability of future generations to meet theirs. The sustainability of the planned nuclear energy system was assessed based on the basic principles, user requirements and criteria in the areas of economics, infrastructure, waste management, proliferation resistance, physical protection, environment, and safety. The assessments covers the sustainability of a large reactor completed in 2014 to support the Pre-Feasibility Study in Bangka Belitung, and of a small and medium-sized reactor (SMR) currently ongoing to support the study in West Kalimantan. The results indicate that evidence of achieving sustainability exists in many respects, but there remain gaps to be addressed in due time on aspects such as economics, investment climate, availability of technology, and global development on non-renewable resources. A preliminary study on fuel cycle arrangements is being performed in parallel, focussing on collecting data including on fuel cycle services abroad. Collecting data has been the main challenge for a newcomer country that has yet to decide on the exact reactor technology. The paper is intended to evaluate the performance of Indonesia’s nuclear energy program using the INPRO Methodology to address the sustainability of its planned NES, i.e., reactors and fuel cycle facilities, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the efforts to achieve the purpose. Awareness of sustainability issues plays a key role in nuclear energy policy, especially for determining the energy mix by 2040, to achieve the Net Zero Emission policy target by 2060 or earlier.

Unpacking the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA): Internationalisation of capital, imperial rivalry and cooperation, and regional power agency

The existing accounts of the Iranian nuclear programme and the JCPOA suffer from ontological exteriority, in conjunction with the problematic conception of the state and unpersuasive assessments of future outcomes. Grounded on the philosophy of internal relations, which challenges the artificial detachment between political economy and military-security concerns, this article contends that grasping the Iranian nuclear programme and the JCPOA requires unpacking their internal links with neoliberal global capitalism. The article thus presents a three-part argument. First, it asserts that the Iranian nuclear programme and economic sanctions should be viewed as part of the great powers’ efforts, particularly those of the United States and the European Union, to shape neoliberalism in the Middle East and North Africa. Second, it delves into the post-2008 global economy’s imperial rivalry and cooperation, suggesting that the nuclear deal was a result of the US pivot to the East, China’s Belt and Road Initiative in West Asia, and the need for multinational companies to find new avenues for capital accumulation following the financial crisis. Finally, it connects the JCPOA to Iranian neoliberalisation, which gives rise to two competing capital fractions (the internationally oriented capital fraction and the military–bonyad complex) to emphasise the crucial role played by the former in reaching the nuclear deal.

A study of proton-induced reactions on natural Silicon targets

Experimental excitation functions of isotopes produced in reactions p + natSi are compared with the results of nuclear reaction program TALYS 1.95 and semi-empirical cross section formulas. We consider excitation functions of 7 isotopes (28Mg, 26Al, 24,22Na, 18F and 10,7Be) produced in  reactions at bombarding energies of 20-144 MeV. They are compared with the predictions of the code TALYS 1.95, the semi-empirical formulas of Silberberg-Tsao (code yieldx) and SPACS. Comparisons of the results of the code TALYS 1.95 and previously published results of code ALICE are made. The predictive power of code TALYS 1.95 may be questioned for reaction products with mass number very much smaller than the target and of semi-empirical formulas at lower energies.