Nottingham Hip Fracture Score Research Articles

Thirty-day mortality following surgical management of hip fractures during the COVID-19 pandemic: findings from a prospective multi-centre UK study.

PurposeThirty-day mortality of patients with hip fracture is well researched and predictive; validated scoring tools have been developed (Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, NHFS). COVID-19 has significantly greater mortality in the elderly and comorbid patients which includes hip fracture patients. Non-operative treatment is not appropriate due to significantly higher mortality, and therefore, these patients are often exposed to COVID-19 in the peri-operative period. What is unclear is the effect of concomitant COVID-19 infection in these patients.MethodsA multicentre prospective study across ten sites in the United Kingdom (responsible for 7% of hip fracture patients per annum in the UK). Demographic and background information were collected by independent chart review. Data on surgical factors included American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, time to theatre, Nottingham Hip fracture score (NHFS) and classification of fracture were also collected between 1st March 2020 and 30th April 2020 with a matched cohort from the same period in 2019.ResultsActual and expected 30-day mortality was found to be significantly higher than expected for 2020 COVID-19 positive patients (RR 3.00 95% CI 1.57–5.75, p < 0.001), with 30 observed deaths compared against the 10 expected from NHFS risk stratification.ConclusionCOVID-19 infection appears to be an independent risk factor for increased mortality in hip fracture patients. Whilst non-operative management of these fractures is not suggested due to the documented increased risks and mortality, this study provides evidence to the emerging literature of the severity of COVID-19 infection in surgical patients and the potential impact of COVID-19 on elective surgical patients in the peri-operative period.

Development of a new comprehensive preoperative risk score for predicting 1-year mortality in patients with hip fracture: the HULP-HF score. Comparison with 3 other risk prediction models.

The aim of this study was to develop a new comprehensive preoperative risk score for predicting mortality during the first year after hip fracture (HF) and its comparison with 3 other risk prediction models. All patients admitted consecutively with a fragility HF during 1 year in a co-managed orthogeriatric unit at a university hospital were assessed and followed for 1 year. Factors independently associated with 1-year mortality were used to create the HULP-HF (Hospital Universitario La Paz - Hip Fracture) score. The predictive validity, discrimination and calibration of the HULP-HF score, the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale, the abbreviated Charlson comorbidity index (a-CCI) and the Nottingham Hip Fracture score (NHFS) were compared. Discriminative performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit-test. 509 patients were included. 1-year mortality was 23.2%. The 8 independent mortality risk factors included in the HULP-HF score were age >85 years, baseline functional and cognitive impairment, low body mass index, heart disease, low hand-grip strength, anaemia on admission, and secondary hyperparathyroidism associated with vitamin D deficiency. The AUC was 0.79 in the HULP-HF score, 0.66 in the NHFS, 0.61 in the abbreviated CCI and 0.59 in the ASA scale. The HULP-HF score, the NHFS and the abbreviated CCI all presented good levels of calibration (p > 0.05). The HULP-HF score has a predictive capacity for 1-year mortality in HF patients slightly superior to that of other previously existing scores.

The Ability of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score to Predict Mobility, Length of Stay and Mortality in Hospital, and Discharge Destination in Patients Admitted with a Hip Fracture

The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) has been developed for predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality after hip fracture. We hypothesise that NHFS may also predict other adverse events. Data from 666 patients (190 men, 476 women), aged 60.2–103.4 years, admitted with a hip fracture to a single centre from 1/10/2015 and 7/12/2017 were analysed. The ability of NHFS to predict mobility within 1 day after surgery, length of stay (LOS) find mortality, and discharge destination was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves and two-graph plots. The area under the curve (95% confidence interval [CI]) for predicting mortality was 67.4% (58.4–76.4%), prolonged LOS was 59.0% (54.0–64.0%), discharge to residential/nursing care was 62.3% (54.0–71.5%), and any two of failure to mobilise, prolonged LOS or discharge to residential/nursing care was 64.8% (59.0–70.6%). NHFS thresholds at 4 and 7 corresponding to the lower and upper limits of intermediate range where sensitivity and specificity equal 90% were identified for mortality and prolonged LOS, and 4 and 6 for discharge to residential/nursing care, which were used to create three risk categories. Compared with the low risk group (NHFS = 0–4), the high risk group (NHFS = 7–10 or 6–10) had increased risk of in-patient mortality: rates = 2.0% versus 7.1%, OR (95% CI) = 3.8 (1.5–9.9), failure to mobilise within 1 day of surgery: rates = 18.9% versus 28.3%, OR = 1.7 (1.0–2.8), prolonged LOS (> 17 days): rates = 20.3% versus 33.9%, OR = 2.2 (1.3–3.3), discharge to residential/nursing care: rates = 4.5% vs 12.3%, OR = 3.0 (1.4–6.4), and any two of failure to mobilise, prolonged LOS or discharge to residential/nursing care: rates = 10.5% versus 28.6%, 3.4 (95% CI 1.9–6.0), and stayed 4.1 days (1.5–6.7 days) longer in hospital. High NHFS associates with increased risk of mortality, prolonged LOS and discharge to residential/nursing care, lending further support for its use to identify adverse events.

Thirty-Day Mortality Rate of Patients With Hip Fractures During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Single Centre Prospective Study in the United Kingdom.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the care of hip fracture patients remains a clinical priority. Our study aims to investigate the 30-day mortality rate of hip fracture patients during the first 30 days of the pandemic in the United Kingdom. A single-center, observational, prospective study of patients presenting with hip fractures. Data collection started from "day 0" of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom and continued for 30 days. We collected data on time to surgery, Clinical Frailty Scale score, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, COVID-19 infection status, 30-day mortality, and cause of death. For comparison, we collected retrospective data during the same 30-day period in 2018, 2019, and the previous 6 months (Control groups A, B, and C, respectively). Forty-three patients were included in the study. There was no difference in age or gender between the Study and Control groups. The 30-day mortality rate of the Study group was 16.3%, which was higher than Control groups A (P = 0.022), B (P = 0.003) and C (P = 0.001). The prevalence of COVID-19 infection in our Study group was 26%. Of the 7 mortalities recorded, 4 patients tested positive for COVID-19 infection. In our Study group, COVID-19 infection correlated significantly with 30-day mortality (P = 0.002, odds ratio 2.4). Our study demonstrated a significant increase in 30-day mortality among hip fracture patients during the first 30 days of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. A positive COVID-19 test result in patients with hip fractures is associated with a 2.4-fold increase in risk of 30-day mortality. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Evaluating the efficacy of a two-site ('COVID-19' and 'COVID-19-free') trauma and orthopaedic service for the management of hip fractures during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

AimsHip fracture patients are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and admission into hospital puts them at further risk. We implemented a two-site orthopaedic trauma service, with ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ hubs, to deliver urgent and infection-controlled trauma care for hip fracture patients, while increasing bed capacity for medical patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA vacated private elective surgical centre was repurposed to facilitate a two-site, ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’, hip fracture service. Patients were screened for COVID-19 infection and either kept at our ‘COVID’ site or transferred to our ‘COVID-free’ site. We collected data for 30 days on patient demographics, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Nottingham Hip Fracture Scores (NHFS), time to surgery, COVID-19 status, mortality, and length of stay (LOS).ResultsIn all, 47 hip fracture patients presented to our service: 12 were admitted to the ‘COVID’ site and 35 to the ‘COVID-free’ site. The ‘COVID’ site cohort were older (mean 86.8 vs 78.5 years, p = 0.0427) and with poorer CFS (p = 0.0147) and NHFS (p = 0.0023) scores. At the ‘COVID-free’ site, mean time to surgery was less (29.8 vs 52.8 hours, p = 0.0146), and mean LOS seemed shorter (8.7 vs 12.6 days, p = 0.0592). No patients tested positive for COVID-19 infection while at the ‘COVID-free’ site. We redirected 74% of our admissions from the base ‘COVID’ site and created 304 inpatient days’ capacity for medical COVID patients.ConclusionAcquisition of unused elective orthopaedic capacity from the private sector facilitated a two-site trauma service. Patients were treated expeditiously, while successfully achieving strict infection control. We achieved significant gains in medical bed capacity in response to the COVID-19 demand. The authors propose the repurposing of unused elective operating facilities for a two-site ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ model as a safe and effective way of managing hip fracture patients during the pandemic.Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:190–197.

Evaluating the efficacy of a two-site (‘COVID-19’ and ‘COVID-19-free’) trauma and orthopaedic service for the management of hip fractures during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

Aims Hip fracture patients are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and admission into hospital puts them at further risk. We implemented a two-site orthopaedic trauma service, with ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ hubs, to deliver urgent and infection-controlled trauma care for hip fracture patients, while increasing bed capacity for medical patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A vacated private elective surgical centre was repurposed to facilitate a two-site, ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’, hip fracture service. Patients were screened for COVID-19 infection and either kept at our ‘COVID’ site or transferred to our ‘COVID-free’ site. We collected data for 30 days on patient demographics, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Nottingham Hip Fracture Scores (NHFS), time to surgery, COVID-19 status, mortality, and length of stay (LOS). Results In all, 47 hip fracture patients presented to our service: 12 were admitted to the ‘COVID’ site and 35 to the ‘COVID-free’ site. The ‘COVID’ site cohort were older (mean 86.8 vs 78.5 years, p = 0.0427) and with poorer CFS (p = 0.0147) and NHFS (p = 0.0023) scores. At the ‘COVID-free’ site, mean time to surgery was less (29.8 vs 52.8 hours, p = 0.0146), and mean LOS seemed shorter (8.7 vs 12.6 days, p = 0.0592). No patients tested positive for COVID-19 infection while at the ‘COVID-free’ site. We redirected 74% of our admissions from the base ‘COVID’ site and created 304 inpatient days’ capacity for medical COVID patients. Conclusion Acquisition of unused elective orthopaedic capacity from the private sector facilitated a two-site trauma service. Patients were treated expeditiously, while successfully achieving strict infection control. We achieved significant gains in medical bed capacity in response to the COVID-19 demand. The authors propose the repurposing of unused elective operating facilities for a two-site ‘COVID’ and ‘COVID-free’ model as a safe and effective way of managing hip fracture patients during the pandemic. Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:190–197.

Optimising bone health among older people with hip fractures and co-existing advanced chronic kidney disease.

Patients with a hip fracture and co-existing advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at risk of further fractures due to either CKD-mineral bone disease or osteoporosis. An analysis of a hospital's hip fracture service registry of patients ≥ 60years with CKD stage 4 (15-29ml/min/1.73m2) or stage 5 (< 15ml/min/1.73m2) over 2years. 46 patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of CKD stage 4 and 5 was 3%. The mean age was 84years, half had ≥ 2 comorbid conditions and 76% had a Nottingham Hip Fracture Score of ≥ 5. 54% and 80% died at 12months and 2years. None were on any osteoporosis treatment on discharge. 85% were prescribed either calcium-vitamin D or vitamin D supplementation. 30% had a bone health clinic appointment made, but less than half attended. Patients with advanced CKD admitted to hospital with a hip fracture have a poor survival. In many, the focus of care should be on supporting quality daily living and not bone health optimisation.

Novel biomarkers for prediction of outcome in hip fracture patients-An exploratory study.

Little is known about the value of biomarkers for prognostication in hip fracture patients. The main objective of the present study was to assess if biomarkers add useful information to an existing risk score for prediction of 30-day mortality in patients suffering from out of hospital hip fractures. In a prospective observational single centre study, association between plasma concentration of ninety-two biomarkers at admission and 30-day mortality was analysed using logistic regression adjusted for risk factors included in Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS). Biomarkers associated with the outcome in the adjusted analysis were further evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the change in area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) relative to the NHFS. 997 patients were included. Sixty-two patients died within 30days (6.2%). Eleven biomarkers were associated with 30-day mortality in adjusted analysis. Of these biomarkers Growth Differentiation Factor-15 (GDF-15) had NRI for the primary outcome (12.1%; 95% CI: 1.2-23.3) and Carbohydrate Antigen 125 (CA-125) improved the AUC relative to NHFS (improvement: 0.05; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10, P=.027). Both CA-125 and GDF-15 improved the AUC for a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and cardiovascular complications. Adding GDF-15 or CA-125 to the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score improves the discrimination with regard to predicting 30-day mortality and may help to identify a subgroup of hip fracture patients with a particularly poor prognosis. The value of these biomarkers should be explored in further studies to confirm clinical utility.

Neck of femur fracture: who gets a total hip replacement? A review of 230 eligible patients.

To investigate patient-specific factors that predict Total Hip Replacement (THR) in patients with fracture neck of femur (NOF), fulfilling the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria. Hip fracture database from a district general hospital and university hospital was retrospectively reviewed to identify patients fulfilling NICE criteria for THR after fracture NOF. Patient demographics, Nottingham Hip Fracture score (NHFS), complications, re-operations, revision, 30days and one-year mortality was obtained from patient-records. Independent predictors correlating with the outcome of surgery were identified. A logistic regression analysis was used to predict the type of surgery in these patients. A total of 230 (114 WMH and 116 MH) were identified; 133 (57.8 per-cent) received hip hemiarthroplasty (HA), and 97 (42.2 per-cent) received THR. Patients receiving THR (mean 73.5years, 95% CI 72-74.8) were significantly younger in comparison to patients receiving HA (mean 81.7years, 95% CI 80.5-82.8). A negative correlation is noted between NHFS and type of surgery (Pearson's correlation - 0.537, p < 0.01), implying higher NHFS decreased the likelihood of receiving THR. Regression analysis showed NHFS (p-0.001) and walking ability (p-0.001) as significant predictors for the type of surgery (Nagelkerke R2-0.472). A log-rank test showed higher estimated survival time in patients with THR in comparison to HA (p-value 0.002). NHFS and walking ability can be used as an adjunct to the NICE criteria for selecting patients for THR after fracture NOF. Carefully selected patients treated with THR survive longer and have a better outcome in comparison to HA.

Concurrent upper limb and hip fracture in the elderly

AimsTo present a large series of concurrent upper limb and hip fracture in the elderly treated at a United Kingdom major trauma centre. Patients and methodsProspective data collection was performed for all elderly patients admitted to a single centre with hip fracture between January 2006 and November 2015. Comparative analysis of concurrent upper limb and hip fracture and an isolated hip fracture was performed. ResultsStudy cohort included 307 patients that had sustained concurrent upper limb and hip fracture and 6887 with an isolated hip fracture. A concurrent upper limb fracture was associated with increased length of stay (21.7 vs. 18.8 days, p = 0.003) and decreased proportion of patients returning to their own home at discharge (39.2% vs. 49.4%, p = 0.001). No differences in age, Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT), Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) and mortality were identified. However, concurrent wrist fracture 365-day mortality was lower than that of isolated hip fracture (20.9% vs 29.2%, p = 0.018). Concurrent humerus fracture was associated with increased inpatient death (13.7% vs 6.4%, p = 0.046) and 365-day mortality (34.7% vs 20.9%, p = 0.014) compared to concurrent wrist fracture. Surgical stabilisation of the concurrent upper limb fracture was performed in 90 wrist (52.3%) and 13 humerus (13.7%) cases. Operative management of the concurrent fracture did not yield significant differences in acute hospital length of stay or rehabilitation requirement. Cox regression analysis of 365-day survival data demonstrated that age, NHFS, AMT, gender and presence of a concurrent upper limb fracture independently influence 365-day mortality rate. ConclusionThere are increased rehabilitation requirements for elderly patients with concurrent upper limb and hip fractures. There is a marked distinction in survivorship outcomes for patients sustaining concurrent wrist and concurrent humerus fractures. Clinical relevanceDemonstrates increased rehabilitation requirements in concurrent upper limb and hip fracture in the elderly Highlights concurrent humerus fracture as a high risk group

Evaluation of Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity as predictors of mortality in elderly neck of femur fracture patients

Background:This study evaluated the use of several risk prediction models in estimating short- and long-term mortality following hip fracture in an Australian population.Methods:Data from 195 patients were retrospectively analysed and applied to three models of interest: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index and the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity. The performance of these models was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curve as well as logistic regression modelling.Results:The median age of participants was 83 years and 69% were women. Ten percent of patients were deceased by 30 days, 25% at 6 months and 31% at 12 months post-operatively. While there was no statistically significant difference between the models, the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index had the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for within 30 day and 12 month mortality, while the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score was largest for 6-month mortality. There was no evidence to suggest that the models were selecting a specific subgroup of our population, therefore, no indication was present to suggest that using multiple models would improve mortality prediction.Conclusions:While there was no statistically significant difference in mortality prediction, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score is perhaps the best suited clinically, due to its ease of implementation. Larger prospective data collection across a variety of sites and its role in guiding clinical management remains an area of interest.

Mortality in Patients with Proximal Femoral Fracture During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A U.K. Hospital's Experience.

Background:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic, with a case mortality ratio of approximately 6.4% at the time of writing (May 2020). Mortality increases in elderly patients with comorbidities. Patients with hip fracture have an average age of 80 years, with an estimated 2.8 comorbidities per patient. Evidence is lacking regarding the mortality rate of patients with hip fracture admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to investigate the mortality rate among patients with a proximal femoral fracture who were admitted to our hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods:We conducted a retrospective review of all patients with a proximal femoral fracture admitted to Southend University Hospital in the U.K. from March to April 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic). Data collected included demographics (patient age, body mass index, sex), comorbidities, and blood test values along with COVID-19 diagnosis (based on positive microbiological sample and clinical and radiographic findings) and operative characteristics (time to operation, length of stay, American Society of Anesthesiologists [ASA] classification, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score). The primary outcome was the 30-day mortality rate for patients with a hip fracture who were COVID-19 positive or negative. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted along with Mann-Whitney U tests and Fisher exact tests.Results:Forty-one patients were included in the study, of whom 37 had an available SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) swab test result. The overall 30-day mortality was 22%. Eleven patients tested positive for COVID-19. There was a significant difference in the mortality rate between those who tested positive and those who tested negative (54.5% versus 7.69%, respectively; Fisher exact test, p = 0.004) and between the operative patients who tested positive and the operative patients who tested negative (37.5% versus 4.34%, respectively; Fisher exact test, p = 0.043).Conclusions:Patients with a proximal femoral fracture may be at higher risk for mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. We noted that patients with a proximal femoral fracture who tested positive for COVID-19 had a higher 30-day mortality rate compared with those who tested negative. Additional research is required to ascertain the benefits of a reduction in time to operation.Level of Evidence:Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

The effect of a multidisciplinary care bundle on the incidence of delirium after hip fracture surgery: a quality improvement study.

Delirium is a common complication following hip fracture surgery. We introduced a peri-operative care bundle that standardised management in the emergency department, operating theatre and ward. This incorporated: use of fascia iliaca blocks; rationalisation of analgesia; avoidance of drugs known to trigger delirium; a regular education program for staff; and continuous auditing of compliance. The study was conducted between June 2017 and December 2018. We recruited 150 patients before (control group) and 150 patients after (care bundle group) the introduction of the care bundle. In patients having surgery for a hip fracture, there was a lower incidence of delirium on the third postoperative day in the care bundle group compared with the control group (33 patients (22%) vs. 49 patients (33%)), respectively; p=0.04). Patients in the care bundle group had an adjusted OR of 2.2 (95%CI 1.1-4.4) (p=0.03) for the avoidance of delirium on the third postoperative day. There was no difference between groups for the secondary outcome measures (measured at 30days postoperatively) including: all-cause mortality; composite morbidity; institutionalisation; and walking status. During the study period, compliance with elements of the care bundle improved in the emergency department (49 patients (33%) compared with 85 patients (59%); p<0.001) and anaesthetic department (40 patients (27%) compared with 104 patients (69%); p<0.001), while orthogeriatrics maintained a high level of compliance (140 patients (93%) compared with 143 patients (95%); p=0.45). There was a clinically and statistically significant reduction in the incidence of delirium following hip fracture surgery in patients treated with a multidisciplinary care bundle.

A randomised trial of non-invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide haemodynamic optimisation in high risk patients undergoing urgent surgical repair of proximal femoral fractures (ClearNOF trial NCT02382185)

BackgroundHip fracture is a procedure with high mortality and complication rates, and there exists a group especially at risk of these outcomes identified by their Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS). Meta-analysis suggests a possible benefit to this patient group from intravascular volume optimisation. We investigated whether intraoperative fluid and blood pressure optimisation improved complications in this group.MethodsPatients with a NHFS ≥ 5 were enrolled into this multicentre observer-blinded randomised control trial. Patients were allocated to either standard care or a combination of fluid optimisation and blood pressure control using a non-invasive system. The primary outcome was the number of patients with one or more complications in each group. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS), incidence of hypotension and fluid and vasopressor usage.ResultsForty-six percent of patients in the intervention group suffered one or more complications compared to the 51% in the control group (OR 0.82 (95% CI 0.49–1.36)). Per-protocol analysis improved the OR to 0.73 (95% CI 0.43–1.24). Median LOS was the same between both groups; however, the mean LOS on a per-protocol analysis was longer in the control group compared to the intervention group (23.2 (18.0) days vs. 18.5 (16.5), p = 0.047).ConclusionsHaemodynamic optimisation including blood pressure management in high-risk patients undergoing repair of a hip fracture did not result in a statistically significant reduction in complications; however, a potential reduction in length of stay was seen.Trial registrationA randomised trial of non-invasive cardiac output monitoring to guide haemodynamic optimisation in high risk patients undergoing urgent surgical repair of proximal femoral fractures (ClearNOF trial NCT02382185).

Le score de Nottingham pour les fractures de hanche (NHFS) est-il un élément prédictif de la mortalité à 30 jours après fracture cervicale vraie ?

BackgroundThe Nottingham hip fracture score (NHFS) was developed to predict 30-day mortality following a fracture of the hip. While the NHFS has been validated in three hip fracture populations within Great Britain, these studies make no distinction between the type of fracture and surgery. Literature “however” shows an increased risk for mortality after a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture. To verify whether the mortality after an intra-capsular hip fracture is higher compared to the predicted mortality score according to the NHFS, a validation of the NHFS in patients with a hemi-arthroplasty after an intra-capsular hip fracture was performed. MethodsThe NHFS was calculated for consecutive patients presenting with an intra-capsular fracture of the hip in two level II trauma teaching hospitals between 1 January 2011 and 1 May 2016. The observed 30-day mortality was compared with that predicted by the NHFS using several validation statistics. ResultsA total of 901 patients were included in the present study. Mean age in the patients was 83 years (SD 8) and 623 (68 %) of the patients were female. Almost 60 % of the patients had an ASA-score (ASA, American Society of Anaesthesiologists;) of≥3 and overall 30-day mortality was 9.5 % (n=86). The median NHFS was 5, and there was no significant change in median NHFS over the past 5 years. The mortality rate in the studied population of hemi-arthroplasty patients was significantly higher than mortality rates predicted by the NHFS. (p=0.022, Pearson's Chi2 test) ConclusionsFindings suggest that for a patient with a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture, there could be an underestimation for the 30-day mortality rate following the NHFS prediction model. Level of EvidencePrognostic Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Comparison of several postoperative risk prediction methods in elderly patients with hip fracture

The problem of hip fracture in the elderly is becoming more and more serious. These patients also present one or more basic diseases, which greatly increase the risk of operation. Currently, there is no uniform standard to analyze the outcome and prognosis of elderly patients with hip fractures. This article reviews the postoperative risk assessment system for elderly patients with hip fracture, and discuss the application of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) score and modified POSSUM score system, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), Daping Orthopedics Operative Risk Scoring System for Senile Patient (DORSSSP) in the evaluation of hip fracture in elderly patients. Each of the above methods is effective in predicting postoperative risk to various extents, with different advantages. The DORSSSP system is more suitable for Chinese patients than other scoring systems, but it still needs to be verified in further studies. Key words: Aged; Hip bone; Fracture; Risk assessment system; Prognosis

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) to predict 30-day mortality in patients with an intracapsular hip fracture

BackgroundThe Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to predict 30-day mortality following a fracture of the hip. While the NHFS has been validated in three hip fracture populations within Great Britain, these studies make no distinction between the type of fracture and surgery. Literature ‘however’ shows an increased risk for mortality after a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture. To verify whether the mortality after an intra-capsular hip fracture is higher compared to the predicted mortality score according to the NHFS, a validation of the NHFS in patients with a hemi-arthroplasty after an intra-capsular hip fracture was performed. MethodsThe NHFS was calculated for consecutive patients presenting with an intra-capsular fracture of the hip in two level II trauma teaching hospitals between 1 January 2011 and 1 May 2016. The observed 30-day mortality was compared with that predicted by the NHFS using several validation statistics. ResultsA total of 901 patients were included in the present study. Mean age in the patients was 83 years (SD 8) and 623 (68%) of the patients were female. Almost 60% of the patients had an ASA-score (American Society of Anaesthesiologists [ASA]) of≥3 and overall 30-day mortality was 9.5% (n=86). The median NHFS was 5, and there was no significant change in median NHFS over the past 5 years. The mortality rate in the studied population of hemi-arthroplasty patients was significantly higher than mortality rates predicted by the NHFS (p=0.022, Pearson's Chi-squared test). ConclusionsFindings suggest that for a patient with a hemi-arthroplasty following an intra-capsular hip fracture, there could be an underestimation for the 30-day mortality rate following the NHFS prediction model. Level of evidencePrognostic Level III, retrospective cohort study.

Predictors of mortality in the elderly patient with a fracture of the odontoid process.

Fracture of the odontoid process (OP) in the elderly is associated with mortality rates similar to those of hip fracture. The aim of this study was to identify variables that predict mortality in patients with a fracture of the OP, and to assess whether established hip fracture scoring systems such as the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) or Sernbo Score might also be used as predictors of mortality in these patients. We conducted a retrospective review of patients aged 65 and over with an acute fracture of the OP from two hospitals. Data collected included demographics, medical history, residence, mobility status, admission blood tests, abbreviated mental test score, presence of other injuries, and head injury. All patients were treated in a semi-rigid cervical orthosis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were undertaken to identify predictors of mortality at 30 days and one year. A total of 82 patients were identified. There were 32 men and 50 women with a mean age of 83.7 years (67 to 100). Overall mortality was 14.6% at 30 days and 34.1% at one year. Univariate analysis revealed head injury and the NHFS to be significant predictors of mortality at 30 days and one year. Multivariate analysis showed that head injury is an independent predictor of mortality at 30 days and at one year. The NHFS was an independent predictor of mortality at one year. The presence of other spinal injuries was an independent predictor at 30 days. Following survival analysis, an NHFS score greater than 5 stratified patients into a significantly higher risk group at both 30 days and one year. The NHFS may be used to identify high-risk patients with a fracture of the OP. Head injury increases the risk of mortality in patients with a fracture of the OP. This may help to guide multidisciplinary management and to inform patients. This paper provides evidence to suggest that frailty rather than age alone may be important as a predictor of mortality in elderly patients with a fracture of the odontoid process. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:253-259.

Validity of Nottingham Hip Fracture Score in Different Health Systems and a New Modified Version Validated to the Greek Population.

BackgroundThe Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) is validated as a predictive mortality tool in patients with hip fracture. However, it has not been modified or validated widely other than in the UK NHS health systems.Material/MethodsWe assessed the predictive capability of the NHFS for 30-day mortality after surgery for hip fracture in the Greek population and then compared the original model to a modified one. We applied the NHFS to the Greek population and created a modified model of the NHFS by including the New Mobility Score (NMS) (Parker and Palmer, 1993) to the evaluated parameters and excluding the parameter of institution.We ran a prospective study over a period of 3 years in our institution, collecting full data from 349 patients. All data were analyzed using SPSS, version 20.ResultsFrom all 349 patients, with a mean age of 80.82 years, only 85 (24.4%) were men. All patients were followed up for at least 30 days and the NHFS and modified NHFS prediction were compared with the mortality rate of patients. The area under the ROC curve for both models suggested acceptable accuracy (original NHFS 0.83, modified NHFS 0.84). Calibration was acceptable for both models (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.31 and 0.11, respectively).ConclusionsBoth the original and the modified NHFS were significant predictors of 30-day mortality. A higher-power study might be able to show superiority of the modified one for the Greek population in the future.

Standardised Warfarin Reversal Expedites Time to Theatre for Fractured Neck of Femur Surgery and Improves Mortality Rates: A Matched Cohort Study.

Background This study aims to evaluate outcomes for warfarinised hip fracture patients and compare them with a matched nonwarfarinised group, before and after the introduction of national hip fracture guidelines in the United Kingdom. Methods A retrospective cohort study of 1743 hip fracture patients was undertaken. All patients admitted taking warfarin were identified. These patients were then matched to nonwarfarinised patients using nearest neighbour propensity score matching, accounting for age, sex, hip fracture type, and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. A pre-guideline group (no standardised warfarin reversal regimen) and a post-guideline group (standardised regimen) were identified. Outcomes assessed included time to INR less than 1.7, time to theatre, length of stay, and 30-day and 1-year mortality. Results Forty-six warfarinised hip fracture patients were admitted in the pre-guideline group (mean age 80.5, F:M 3:1) and 48 in the post-guideline group (mean age 81.2 years, F:M 3:1). Post-guideline patients were reversed to a safe operative INR level within 18 hours of admission, decreasing the time to first dose vitamin K (p<0.001). 70% of warfarinised patients were operated upon within 36 hours, compared to 19.6% with no regimen (p<0.05). After anticoagulation reversal protocol, thirty-day mortality decreased from 15.2% to 8.3% and 1-year mortality from 43.5% to 33% for warfarinised patients, which is comparable to nonwarfarinised matched patients. There was no significant change in the length of stay pre- and post-guideline for both groups of patients. Conclusions Proactive anticoagulant management and expedient surgery reduces morbidity and mortality when managing this surgically challenging subset of hip fracture patients.