Notional Defined Contribution Research Articles

The effects of aging on notional defined contribution pension systems: A theoretical investigation

AbstractThis paper proposes a theoretical framework for analyzing the properties of pay‐as‐you‐go notional defined contributions (NDCs) systems within the context of aging. Different from the defined‐benefit scheme, where aging harms the financial sustainability of the social security system, the NDC determines pension benefits while taking into account life expectancy and demographic trends, turning the issue of financial sustainability into one of pension adequacy. This paper explores the balance sheet effects when life expectancy, retirement thresholds and entry age in the labor market vary by cohorts. The study suggests some solutions for practical issues concerning aging in NDC systems, such as (a) the bias related to the forecasts of survival rates, (b) the indexation of pension benefits and (c) the setup of tenure and age requirements for retirement.

A “Swedish” actuarial balance for a notional defined contribution pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits

AbstractThis article proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. The proposed ABS splits the pension system in two parts: the pure NDC part and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non‐contributory rights. The article contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy‐makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.

Do notional defined contribution schemes prolong working life? Evidence from the 1994 Swedish pension reform

Abstract This paper investigates whether the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme prolongs working life. The evidence from the 1994 Swedish pension reform shows a gender and socio-economic gradient in the labor supply responses to phasing in NDC. While the reform exerted a large and significant positive effect on the average retirement age among highly educated and skilled, it had little or negative effect on those with low level of human capital. And the overall effect is more profound among older men, compared to older women. These findings imply that the aggregate impact of NDC may only be positive if the average level of older workers’ education and skills is high, whereas it may be moderate (or even adverse) if the majority of the older workers are less educated and engage in low-skill jobs. This highlights the importance of incorporating the gender and socio-economic aspects into the evaluation of how a multi-pillar pension scheme, such as NDC, may increase the average working life expectancy.

A 'Swedish' Actuarial Balance Sheet for a Notional Defined Contribution Pension Scheme with Disability and Retirement Benefits

This paper proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet for a notional defined contribution scheme embedding disability insurance within the retirement pension system. The underlying framework supporting the actuarial balance relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend and a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. The proposed ABS splits the system into two parts: the actuarial part (pure NDC) and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non-contributory rights. The paper also contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal and confirms that the model works reasonably well. The results obtained make sense and provide us with some useful values regarding the impact of introducing a minimum pension on the system's financial equilibrium. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.

Designing an Alternative Public Pension Scheme: A Korean Case Study

The trends of ageing population and slow economic growth have become a major concern for public pension schemes with the defined benefit (DB) type. To mitigate the impact of this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability, several countries have recently adopted notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. In this paper, we show how to apply an NDC scheme to the public pension system of Korea, arguably the fastest ageing country. In particular, we create a new pension system by combining the current Korean pension scheme and an NDC. Through simulations it is shown that the proposed scheme can reduce the financial instability caused by the changes in demographic and economic factors, while retaining the income redistribution component. We further consider applying a German-type automatic balancing mechanism to the proposed scheme, by using the average income to determine the return rate of the fund, to make it sustainable in the long term.

Notional defined contribution pension schemes: why does only Sweden distribute the survivor dividend?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of the survivor dividend in notional defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes. At present, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution scheme. We develop a model that endorses the idea that the survivor dividend has a strong basis for enabling the NDC scheme to achieve financial equilibrium and that not including the dividend is a non-transparent way of compensating for increases in longevity and/or legacy costs from old pension systems. We also find that the average effect of the dividend remains unchanged for any constant annual rate of population growth, that contributors who reach retirement age always get a higher return than the scheme does, and that population growth enables cohorts with more years of contributions to benefit to a greater extent from the dividend effect.

The Swedish pension system after twenty years

Elements of the Swedish pension reform enacted in the 1990s have served as a model for reform initiatives in a number of other countries. Sweden’s experience suggests that a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) pension reform can be sustained in a supportive political environment, but it has not been immune to electoral pressures to prevent visible cuts in pension benefits. Moreover, efforts to lengthen working lives have encountered major barriers both in the way that the state pension system is perceived and in the structure of the occupational pension system. Design of Sweden’s individual account tier has major successes in lowering administrative costs and in providing information across sources of retirement income, but efforts to increase active engagement in selecting retirement savings portfolios have faltered. Sweden has modified its new pension system in several ways over the past decade to address perceived problems and political concerns, and debates are now arising on a Reform 2.0 package of more comprehensive changes. JEL classification: H5, H55. Keywords: Pension reform, pension system, income contribution, retirement, stabilising mechanisms.

Integrating Retirement and Long-Term Care (LTC) Annuities Using a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Framework

This paper examines the possibility of embedding public long-term care (LTC) insurance within the retirement pension system, i.e. introducing life care annuities (LCAs) into a notional defined contribution (NDC) framework. To do this we develop a multistate overlapping generations model (MOLG) that includes the so-called survivor dividend and give special attention to the assumptions made about mortality rates for dependent persons and LTC incidence rates, which largely determine the contribution rate assigned to LTC. The proposed model could be of interest to policymakers because it could be implemented without too much difficulty, it would universalize LTC coverage with a fixed cost, and it would discourage politicians from making promises about future LTC benefits without the necessary funding support.

Meeting the Migrant Pension Challenge in China

This article proposes a notional defined contribution (NDC) mechanism to ensure pension mobility for the 150 million migrating workers in China during both the accumulation and drawdown phases. Planned governance would ensure independence from the three existing pension systems. An appropriately structured NDC plan of this type is shown to be viable by reference to a previously developed model of Zhejiang Province’s social security systems. Such a plan would remove mobility barriers for migrating workers, increase the retirement benefit for mobile workers, and reduce the future government liability for payouts in other pension systems in which migrants currently hold membership. (JEL codes: H55, J11, J18, R23)

An Integrated Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Model with Retirement and Permanent Disability

In this paper we develop a theoretical basis for integrating retirement and permanent disability using a generic NDC framework. The methodology used relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend. Currently this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution (DC) scheme. The results achieved in the numerical example we present endorse the fact that the model works well. Special attention is given to the assumptions made about mortality rates for disabled people and disability incidence rates, which largely determine the contribution rate assigned to disability. The model could be of interest to policymakers because, after some adaptations, it could be implemented without too much difficulty and would uncover the real cost of disability and minimize the risk of disability insurance being used as a vote-buying mechanism.

Actuarial Fairness When Longevity Increases: An Evaluation of the Italian Pension System

This study analyses the actuarial characteristics of the Italian pension system throughout its transition from defined benefit (DB) to notional defined contribution (NDC) rules, taking into account expected increasing longevity. Computations rely on ad hoc projected cohort mortality tables based on a limit survival scenario depicted by demographic experts. Most workers retiring in the coming years, whose pension is partly computed according to DB rules, will receive more-than-actuarially fair pensions. However, the generosity of the pension system has been significantly reduced for them by a recent reform that tightened early retirement eligibility requirements. Disability benefits remain (extremely) generous when claimed before age (57) 60. Steady-state NDC pensions, due to dynamic efficiency, are less than actuarially fair. They further deviate from actuarial fairness due to the specific rules, based on historical mortality, adopted by the Italian law for computing and updating benefits while facing increasing longevity. Cohort mortality projections should be used to handle longevity changes in NDC schemes.

Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Pension Schemes and Income Patterns

Abstract During the 1990s, some important European countries, particularly Italy and Sweden, have radically transformed their public pension system by adopting defined-contribution rules while retaining a pay-as-you-go financial architecture. This paper inquires into the theoretical properties of these “Notional Defined Contribution” pension schemes in order to identify the determinants of the replacement rates awarded to individuals with different income patterns. Three typical career patterns are taken into consideration, according to whether the individual wage growth is equal to, higher than, or lower than average wage growth. The impact of, and the possible remedies to, a possible discontinuity on the replacement rates is finally discussed by means of a sensitivity analysis of the replacement rates with respect to the career length (for a given retirement age), the retirement age, and the conventional rate of return credited on all individual accounts.

The Political Sustainability of the NDC Pension Model: The Cases of Sweden and Italy

Since the early 1990s we have seen pension reforms in a large number of advanced welfare states, and the most impressive reforms have happened in countries with Bismarckian pension systems. Some of these countries have adopted a particularly innovative pension model which is based on pay-as-you-go financing and benefits that are a function of lifetime contributions. The approach is known as the notional defined contribution (NDC) model. This article examines what has happened to the public pension systems in Sweden and Italy after they were among the first to adopt the NDC model in the mid-1990s. By focusing on the degree of political consensus and conflict in the national pension policy debate since the NDC formula was introduced, the article offers an empirical assessment of the degree of political sustainability enjoyed by these landmark reforms. The paper shows that reform processes do not end with legislation. For reforms to have a lasting impact, whether they are left to work as intended also matters. The ‘post-adoption’ policy trajectory depends on a number of factors related to policy design, economic context and political ownership.

Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Pension Schemes and Income Patterns

During the 90’s, some important European countries, among which Italy and Sweden, have radically transformed their public pension system by adopting defined-contribution rules, while retaining the pay-as-you-go financial architecture. The paper inquires into the theoretical properties of the Notional Defined Contribution pension schemes in order to identify the determinants of the replacement rates awarded to individuals with different income patterns. Three typical career patterns are taken into consideration, according to whether the individual wage growth is equal to, higher or lower than the average wage growth. The impact of, and the possible remedies to a possible discontinuity on the replacement rates is finally discussed by means of a sensitivity analysis of the replacement rates with respect to the career length (for a given retirement age), the retirement age and the conventional rate of return credited on all individual accounts.

Differential mortality and redistribution in the Italian notional defined contribution system

AbstractIn this paper, we adopt a financial measure (net present value ratio) to assess the extent of the redistribution of lifetime earnings operated by the introduction of a notional defined contribution (NDC) system in the Italian PAYGO system. Our simulations are based on a representative sample of the Italian population consisting of individuals born between 1975 and 2000. We identify three channels of redistribution: between genders (from men to women), along educational lines (from the less-well-educated to the highly educated) and between diverse lifetime-earnings quintiles (from the poor to the rich). This happens because certain groups of individuals systematically live shorter-than-average lives (men, the less well-educated and the poor), whereas others live longer-than-average lives (women, the highly educated and the rich) and, at the same time, the NDC system does not take into account such differences. Comparison between the old defined benefit system and the reformed NDC one shows that intergenerational fairness has improved sensibly but differences between gender and educational levels remained nearly the same. Sensitivity analysis and the consideration of survival pensions in our simulations confirm the general trends of our base case.

Applicability of the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Model in United States Social Security: Comparing the NDC Model and the Defined Benefit Model

This paper accounts for the necessity of structural reform and examines the notional defined contribution (NDC) model against the defined benefit (DB) model in the U.S. pension system. This study comes up with a robust NDC on the basis of population and financial sustainability. On the individual level, this article calculates the new optimum premium rate and the income replacement rate when the old-age pension is converted to NDC. Second, we present several scenarios for forecasting the long-term sustainability of Social Security, depending on a macro-level actuarial analysis.

Valuation of the Hungarian Pension System

This paper takes a look at certain results of the modelling side of the Hungarian pension reform. Preparations are underway to implement actuarial modelling of pension liabilities for the government. The objective is to understand how the state might face challenges of the present pay-as-you-go pension system. Flat-rate pension, point system and notional defined contribution (NDC) as possible suggestions are reviewed in order to stop increase of public debt in the course of this century. Based on the investigations done in the last two years the sharpest problems for Hungary are the low activity ratios and the short working period.

The Strengths and Failures of Incentive Mechanisms in Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems

Public pension systems based on the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) principle were introduced during the ‘90s in Italy, Sweden and Poland, among other countries. They mimic private savings, in that individuals get back, as pensioners, what they contributed to social security during working life, plus returns. As such, NDC systems should realize actuarial equity and incentive neutrality. However, when one considers the presence of NDC pensions together with minimum and social assistance pensions, this is no longer true. Indeed, in all the three countries considered, the NDC system shows a regressive feature, which disincentives contributions, particularly from low earners, who would be better off entering, or staying in, the shadow economy. In order to reduce the extent of this phenomenon, we examine the effects of introducing, or increasing, the possibility of accumulation of social assistance and NDC pensions, which would also improve pension adequacy. A complete accumulation of the two would solve the incentive problem, but would be costly and would require a structural reform of the pension system financing mechanism, altering the current balance between social contributions and general fiscal revenues. We show the effects of a change in the accumulation rules for social assistance and NDC pensions in Italy using CAPP DYN, a population-based dynamic micro simulation model, which allows assessment of the evolution of the pension system in the coming decades and the distributional implications of such reform.

Pension policy in China, Singapore, and South Korea: An assessment of the potential value of the notional defined contribution model

The rate of population aging is increasing in the developing world and the trend is particularly dramatic in East Asia. One consequence is sharp increases in old-age dependency ratios which have major implications for the sustainability of current public pension schemes. These trends are pushing pension policy experts in many of these countries to search for new pension models that are more suited to the increased demographic pressures they will be facing in the decades ahead. In this article we discuss five alternative public pension models with a focus on the newest of these models, the notional defined contribution (NDC) approach. We consider three countries with very different pension systems in place, two from East Asia (China and South Korea) and one from South East Asia (Singapore). The central question we address is which (if any) of the limitations in these existing models might more adequately be addressed using a variant of the NDC model. We conclude that the NDC model has the most to offer China and the least to offer Singapore.

Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems

Using stochastic simulations we analyze how public pension structures spread the risks arising from demographic and economic shocks across generations. We consider several actual and hypothetical sustainable PAYGO pension structures, including: (1) versions of the US Social Security system with annual adjustments of taxes or benefits to maintain fiscal balance; (2) Sweden's Notional Defined Contribution system and several variants developed to improve fiscal stability; and (3) the German system, which also includes annual adjustments to maintain fiscal balance. For each system, we present descriptive measures of uncertainty in representative outcomes for a typical generation and across generations. We then estimate expected utility for generations based on simplifying assumptions and incorporate these expected utility calculations in an overall social welfare measure. Using a horizontal equity index, we also compare the different systems' performance in terms of how neighboring generations are treated. While the actual Swedish system smoothes stochastic fluctuations more than any other and produces the highest degree of horizontal equity, it does so by accumulating a buffer stock of assets that alleviates the need for frequent adjustments. In terms of social welfare, this accumulation of assets leads to a lower average rate of return that more than offsets the benefits of risk reduction, leaving systems with more frequent adjustments that spread risks broadly among generations as those most preferred.