Northwest Syria Research Articles

Evaluating the effectiveness of student-record systems in conflict-affected universities in northwest Syria relative to student transition and mobility

More than a decade of conflict has disrupted all sectors across Syria, including the higher education (HE) sector, depriving much of a generation of Syrian youth of access to HE in areas to which they have been displaced. This research sought to evaluate the effectiveness of student-record systems in facilitating student transition and mobility both inside Syria and beyond, focusing on two universities in the conflict-affected northwest to which the greatest number have been displaced. A mixed-method approach was adopted, combining a student survey (370 respondents), two student focus groups, and six interviews with staff (academic and administrative) from the two study universities. Results revealed a total absence of mobility opportunities due primarily to the universities’ lack of international recognition, as well as financial limitations. The adoption of hardcopy student-record systems due the lack of finance and skills to support digitisation, coupled with a lack of standardised practices across universities in the northwest, whether study-related or other, clearly constrained student transition. Most respondents had little knowledge of transition processes or of alternative integrated-institution-wide-record systems. In a world where robust efficient digitised systems are central international recognition, many students still favoured hardcopy documents, not least as a requirement of employment to help mitigate forgery. Hardcopy systems did not provide students with direct access to essential documentation, creating delays and costs, and the need for in-person transaction in an area of continued insecurity with Government universities actively obstructing transition to non-government universities. Although both study universities are looking to modernise, current limitations continue to negatively affect transition and mobility opportunities.

The impact of armed conflict on utilisation of health services in north-west Syria: an observational study

BackgroundArmed conflicts are known to have detrimental impact on availability and accessibility of health services. However, little is known on potential impact on utilisation of these services and health seeking behaviour. This study examines whether exposure to different types of war incidents affected utilisation of key health services—outpatient consultations, antenatal care, deliveries, and C-sections, in conflict affected areas of north west Syria between 1 October 2014 and 30 June 2017.MethodsThe study is an observational study using routinely collected data of 597,675 medical consultations and a database on conflict incidents that has 11,396 events. Longitudinal panel data analysis was used with fixed effect negative binomial regression for the monthly analysis and distributed lag model with a lag period of 30 days for the daily analysis.ResultsThe study found strong evidence for a negative association between bombardments and both consultations and antenatal care visits. The monthly Risk Ratio was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94–0.97) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.93–0.98); and the cumulative daily RR at 30 days was 0.19 (95% CI 0.15–0.25) and 0.42 (95% CI 0.25–0.69) for consultations and antenatal care respectively. Explosions were found to be positively associated with deliveries and C-sections. Each one unit increase in explosions in a given month in a given village was associated with about 20% increase in deliveries and C-sections; RR was 1.22 (95% CI 1.05–1.42) and 1.96 (95% CI 1.03–3.74) respectively.ConclusionThe study found that access to healthcare in affected areas in Syria during the study period has been limited. The study provides evidence that conflict incidents were associated negatively with the utilisation of routine health services, such as outpatient consultations and antenatal care. Whereas conflict incidents were found to be positively associated with emergency type maternity services—deliveries, and C-sections.

Respiratory health in Syria: an analysis of primary data from the Syrian American Medical Society

Abstract Despite a decade of conflict, there has been little exploration of respiratory health in Syria. We explore the burden and trends of respiratory consultations in Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) facilities in northwest Syria using mixed methods. We performed i) a scoping review of available academic and grey literature on respiratory health in Syria between 2011 and 2020 (17 databases) and ii) a retrospective review of routinely collected data relating to respiratory presentations in SAMS' facilities between March 2017 and June 2020. We identified 23 papers (19 peer-reviewed); 7 analysed primary data. Key themes included the impact of conflict on asthma diagnosis and management, the burden of respiratory tract infections (RTIs), the impact of chemical weapons and those relating to the destruction of the health system. In our quantitative analysis, data were available for 5,058,864 consultations, of which 1,228,722 (24%) were respiratory presentations. 45% of respiratory presentations were from hospitals, 44% from primary healthcare clinics and 9% from mobile clinics. The median monthly number of respiratory cases was 30,279 (25,792-33,732) out of a median 128,923 total monthly consultations (112,917-140,189). 73% of respiratory consultations were for children. Key findings include: respiratory presentations accounted for up to 38% of consultations each month with seasonal variation. RTIs accounted for 91% of all respiratory presentations. A steep decrease in consultations occurred between the end of 2019 (160,000) and the first quarter of 2020 (90,000), correlating with an escalation of violence in Idlib governorate. This study presents the largest quantitative analysis of respiratory data collected during the Syrian conflict. Our findings support the need for improved measures to aid the prevention, diagnosis and management of respiratory conditions during conflict. Further work exploring such interventions is needed. Key messages We present the largest study of the burden of respiratory presentations during the Syrian conflict accounting for 1,228,722 (24%) of all consultations; of these 72% were for children. Despite the burden of respiratory disease in the Syrian conflict, optimisation of respiratory health is neglected. Public health measures which address the causes and consequences are needed.

Towards a comprehensive framework for the design and implementation of agile Mobile Health Units in humanitarian crises: A case study in Northwestern Syria

Mobile Health Units (MHUs) have been implemented to deliver medical care to Internally Displaced Persons in Northwest (NW) Syria. Despite the popular use of MHUs in humanitarian emergencies, few guidelines are available for their design and implementation with notably limited gender considerations. This study, therefore, aimed to elucidate the process of designing and implementing MHUs within humanitarian contexts by identifying and reviewing existing guidelines, describing how MHUs were mobilised within NW Syria, including key challenges identified and highlighting areas where gender considerations are necessary to improve service delivery. A holistic, single-case study was used with MHU as the unit of analysis. Existing MHU guidelines were identified and systematically compared to extract their key components, complemented by qualitative interviews with key informants responsible for MHU mobilisation in NW Syria. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. Study findings suggest that MHU deployment is best described as a cyclical process spanning the phases of pre-deployment, design, implementation, and feedback, with the latter central to inform service delivery across all previous phases. Factoring impacting MHU mobilisation in NW Syria were discrepancies in supply and demand, varying acceptability of MHUs, and tensions between stakeholders. Areas for gender considerations in MHU mobilisation include clinic design, staff recruitment, services offered, accessibility, needs assessments, and travel routes. This study makes two contributions to the existing literature. First, it presents a theoretical framework applicable to the design and implementation of MHUs in conflict states. Second, it highlights the importance of nuanced gender considerations in MHU mobilisation within humanitarian settings.

Effects of Two Chlorine Gas Attacks on Hospital Admission and Clinical Outcomes in Kafr Zita, Syria.

BackgroundIn 2014, Hama Governorate was exposed twice to chlorine gas, with 15 patients presenting to Kafr Zita Hospital in Northwest Syria. This study aimed to describe clinical manifestations of chlorine gas exposure to identify factors leading to facility admission and the need for ICU/intubation in conflict-affected areas with limited healthcare infrastructure.MethodsWe conducted a case-series study, using medical records of suspected chlorine-exposed patients presenting at Kafr Zita Hospital on either 11 April or 22 May 2014. Data on age, sex, initial clinical presentation, therapeutic management, and outcome were compared by hospital admission/non-admission and attack date. All patients provided verbal informed consent.ResultsFifteen patients with signs of chlorine gas exposure had detailed medical records. The mean age was 25.7 years (range 2-59), eight were male (53%), and three (20%) were under age 16.At initial presentation, all experienced respiratory distress, due to severe airway inflammation confirmed by nonspecific pulmonary infiltrates on chest x-ray, and similar intestinal, neurological, dermatological, ophthalmological, and psychological signs and symptoms. Acute management consisted of oxygen and bronchodilators for all patients, hydrocortisone (93%), antiemetics (80%), and dexamethasone (13%). Seven (47%) made a rapid symptomatic recovery and were discharged the same day and eight (53%) were admitted for a median of two days (range 1-6 days), one of whom required intubation and later died. The only significant associations found were higher mean pulse rate (i.e. 138 versus 124; p=0.043) and body temperature (37.0 versus 36.5; p=0.019) among admitted patients compared to non-admitted.ConclusionOur results demonstrated that even in low-resource humanitarian settings the survival rate for chlorine gas exposed patients is fair. Despite the small sample, this study provides insight into the clinical presentation, management, and outcomes of weaponized chlorine gas exposure, though further research is required to understand any chronic consequences.

Descriptive Epidemiology of the Tuberculosis Service Delivery Project Beneficiaries in Northwest Syria: 2019-2020.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic communicable disease caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis that thrives in protracted humanitarian crises. It is an important cause of morbidity and mortality burden in the developing world. Globally, TB is the number one cause of death from any single infectious disease agent that plagued an estimated 10 million (range, 8.9–11.0 million) people in 2019 alone. The Eastern Mediterranean region comprised 8.2% of the worldwide share of TB cases in 2019.Methods: in April 2019, the World Health Organization's (WHO) country office of Turkey started three TB centers in the cities of A'zaz, Idleb, and Afrin in northwest Syria, to provide the population with quality TB treatment curative services. The objectives of the project involved provision of full package of TB services in alignment with WHO TB standards and protocols. Three contractors i.e., national NGOs, were selected after a rigorous process in accordance with WHO policies. These newly established centers were equipped with the essential medical supplies, including well-functioning X-ray and microscopy laboratories run by WHO-trained medical doctors and lab technicians.Results: Based on the quarterly reports submitted by the WHO partners, from the last two quarters of the year 2019, and the four quarters for the year 2020, out of 785 cases diagnosed either by clinical, laboratory, or radiological assessment, 251 cases were bacteriologically confirmed as TB cases against the backdrop of 2236 bacteriological investigations done and a weekly average of 31 sputum specimens processed. A total of 316 smear positive slides were identified during the study period, with the proportion of smear positive slides to be 14.13%. Clinical status determined after 6 months of treatment revealed that out of the 181 patients enrolled in the third quarter of 2019, 128 patients were either cured or successfully completed their TB treatment; with a treatment success rate of 70.7% and in quarter 4, 2019 those figures were respectively: 133, 82 and 61.7%.Conclusion: Despite the challenging and protracted complex humanitarian situation in northwest Syria, the number of patients enrolled and the proportion who successfully completed the TB treatment is acceptable. However, these results are preliminary, as clinical outcomes were available only for the first and second cohorts of patients enrolled. Innovative solutions and flexibility in the execution and continued expansion of this promising project are imperative.

Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria

More than 1 billion people live in informal settlements worldwide, where precarious living conditions pose unique challenges to managing a COVID-19 outbreak. Taking Northwest Syria as a case study, we...

A possibilistic mathematical programming model to control the flow of relief commodities in humanitarian supply chains

In emergency situations, disaster relief organizations are faced with the difficult decision of how to allocate scarce resources in an efficient manner in order to provide the best possible relief action. This paper aims to provide an analytical model that will help relief organizations in reducing human suffering following a disaster while maintaining an acceptable level of cost efficiency. A mathematical model is introduced to optimize the relief distribution problem which considers the social cost —the total sum of logistics and deprivation costs. The fuzzy nature of the deprivation cost function is addressed with possibilistic mixed integer programming with fuzzy objectives to reflect variation in deprivation costs perceptions. The model is solved using the Rolling Horizon method in a sequence of iterations. In each iteration, part of the planning horizon is modeled in detail and the rest of the time horizon is represented in an aggregated manner. The model is tested both empirically and on a case study of internal displacement in northwest Syria. Computational results showed that considering the demographic structure in affected areas and reflecting it to the deprivation cost function helped to reach better prioritization in distribution of commodities. The rolling horizon methodology is also found to be efficient in solving large scale instances and in capturing the dynamic changes in demand and supply parameters.

10 years of the Syrian conflict: a time to act and not merely to remember

10 years of the Syrian conflict: a time to act and not merely to remember

Evaluation of demographic and clinical characteristics of healthcare professionals with COVID-19 in Northwest Syria Region

Objective: In our study, we aimed to investigate the demographic and clinical characteristics of healthcare workers with COVID-19 in Northwest Syria during the pandemic, which is a vulnerable area in terms of public health Methods: In this study, the demographic and clinical characteristics of the healthcare workers who had COVID-19 infection and applied to the ACU (Assistance Coordination Unit) laboratories that were supported by the World Health Organization in the Northwestern Syria Region were retrospectively 40 investigated Results: F2596 healthcare workers were included into the study 38 5% (n=1000) of the participants were female and 61 5% (n=1596) were male The average age of the participants was 33 4∓8 9 According to the profession, the majority of them were nurses (n=1037) In addition, among all, there were 380 (14 6%) doctors, 335 (12 9%) community health workers and 196 (7 6%) cleaners In Northwest Syria, 953 health workers from Aleppo Region and 1643 from Idlib Region were included in our study COVID-19 infected healthcare workers were identified as 277 people in Azez, 214 people in Al Bab and 206 people in Afrin located in the Aleppo Region;770 people in Idlib center and 675 people in Harim ocated in the Idlib Region Among those included in the study, 275 (10 6%) were asymptomatic and 2321 (89 4%) were symptomatic Most of them (n=2235, 86 1%) had mild symptoms The most common symptoms were fever (n=1702, 65 6%), dry cough (n=1435, 55 5%) and fatigue (n = 1230, 47 4%) Conclusion: In our study, we have presented a cross-sectional analysis of almost all COVID-19 infected healthcare workers in northwest Syria in the second half of 2020 In the light of the data of our study, in Northwest Syria, where the internal turmoil continues;insufficient physical conditions of the places where the healthcare services are provided, uncontrolled movement of the crowded population, the failure to comply with isolation measures and the insufficient number of healthcare workers may have paved the way for the high infection rate among the healthcare workers Among the limitations of our study, we can mention the fact that the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection was evaluated according to the results of the PCR test, but the data of the employees with COVID-19 positive findings in lung CT scans are not available in the digital database © 2021 All rights reserved

Syria's Secret Library: The True Story of How a Besieged Syrian Town Found Hope

Syria's Secret Library: The True Story of How a Besieged Syrian Town Found Hope

COVID-19 response in northwest Syria: innovation and community engagement in a complex conflict

ABSTRACTDespite lacking capacity and resources, the health system in the northwest Syria is using innovative approaches for the containment of COVID-19. Lessons drawn from previous outbreaks in the region, such as the polio outbreak in 2013 and the annual seasonal influenza, have enabled the Early Warning and Response Network, a surveillance system to develop mechanisms of predicting risk and strengthening surveillance for the new pandemic. Social media tools such as WhatsApp are effectively collecting health information and communicating health messaging about COVID-19. Community engagement has also been scaled up, mobilizing local resources and encouraging thousands of volunteers to join the ‘Volunteers against Corona’ campaign. Bottom-up local governance technical entities, such as Idleb Health Directorate and the White Helmets, have played key leadership role in the response. These efforts need to be scaled up to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in a region chronically affected by a complex armed conflict.

Invisible No More: Social Work, Human Rights, and the Syrian Refugee Crisis

The Syrian refugee crisis began in March 2011 and continues today with increasing conflict in northwest Syria. To date, it is the largest refugee crisis with an estimated 6.7 million refugees and more than 13.5 million Syrians in need of humanitarian aid. Policies have done little to hold countries accountable and have had little to no impact on the millions of families seeking asylum from war and persecution in Syria. In the USA, the Refugee Act of 1980 allows the sitting president to have power over refugee resettlement, resulting in record low admission numbers under President Trump’s administration. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights has clearly articulated that all persons have a right to seek asylum. Despite this, millions of displaced persons are denied this right to asylum due to their religion, race, or country of origin. Social work has taken a bystander role to refugee problems in the past and continues to do so with Syrian refugees, despite the standards and ethics of the profession that call for advocacy and social justice. This article highlights the implications of social work’s silence regarding Syrian refugees.

“Ten years of war! You expect people to fear a ‘germ’?”: A qualitative study of initial perceptions and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic among displaced communities in opposition-controlled northwest Syria

BackgroundResponse to the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged even robust healthcare systems in high-income countries. Syria, a country experiencing protracted conflict, has the largest internally-displaced population globally with most displaced settlements in opposition-controlled areas governed by local and international NGOs. This study aimed to explore community perspectives on challenges and potential solutions to reduce COVID-19 transmission among displaced communities in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria. MethodsWe used a qualitative study design, conducting 20 interviews with displaced Syrians in opposition-controlled camps in Northwest Syria between April-May 2020 and ensuring over half our interviewees were women. We analysed data thematically. ResultsParticipants described already difficult camp conditions that would be detrimental to an effective COVID-19 response, including household crowding, inadequate sewerage and waste management, insufficient and poor-quality water, and lack of cleaning supplies. Participants most frequently mentioned internet as their COVID-19 information source, followed by NGO awareness campaigns. Men had access to more accurate and comprehensive COVID-19 information than women did. Isolating (shielding) high-risk people within households did not appear feasible, but participants suggested ‘house-swapping’ approaches might work. While most participants had sufficient knowledge about COVID-19, they lacked practical tools to prevent transmission. ConclusionThis study is the first to explore perspectives and lived experiences of internally-displaced Syrians in the weeks prior to the COVID-19 epidemic in Northwest Syria. The challenging living conditions of internally-displaced people in Syria are further threatened by the spread of COVID-19. Tailored control measures are urgently needed to reduce COVID-19 transmission in camps.

A new method for identifying and mapping areas vulnerable to Covid-19 in an armed conflict zone: Case study north-west Syria

In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, a method for identifying and mapping vulnerable areas in an armed conflict zone seems necessary to limit the risk and anticipate the spread of contamination. It may also assist in the preparation of health infrastructures and the development of strategies to manage such infrastructures as this pandemic, which affects the whole world and has created chaos in fragile states, is causing significant problems in armed conflict zones. To achieve these objectives, geographic information technologies, remote sensing and spatial modelling currently offer new potential for anticipating the spread of risk in armed conflict zones and better managing health or natural emergencies.In this paper, we present the Risk of Vulnerability to COVID-19 in War Zones Index “Id_Covid19_WZ”. This index was calculated based on several factors and by using spatial data. A risk map was then created from this data developed for the north-west of Syria, an area where there has been intense fighting for several years.•Identify areas vulnerable to the Covid-19 pandemic.•Anticipating the spread of risk in armed conflict zones.•Using remote sensing and spatial modelling to managing health emergencies.

International failure in northwest Syria: humanitarian health catastrophe demands action

The 9-year conflict in Syria has resulted in one of the worst humanitarian crises of our generation, with more than 11·7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Syria, 11·3 million in need of health assistance, and 6·2 million internally displaced within Syria. 1 UNHCRSyria Operational Update, January–May 2019. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/UNHCR%20Syria%27s%20Operational%20update%20May%202019.pdfDate: 2019 Date accessed: July 1, 2019 Google Scholar In one of the worst onslaughts of the conflict to date, Syrian Government and Russian forces have intensified their ground shelling and airstrikes in northwest Syria since early April, 2019. This area contains an estimated 3 million people of whom 1·3 million are internally displaced people, 2 UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian AffairsSyria: situation report 1: recent developments in Northwestern Syria (as of May 10, 2019). https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syria-situation-report-1-recent-developments-north-western-syria-10-mayDate: 2019 Date accessed: July 1, 2019 Google Scholar who have already been displaced from other parts of Syria such as Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta by previous government offensives; the most severely affected area is in the southernmost part of the demilitarised zone of Idlib province. To date, 380 casualties, including 91 children, have been reported in Idlib; with 27 deaths, including 11 children, in just 1 day on June 10, 2019. 3 Studer S 27 civilians killed in Assad-Putin airstrikes in Syria's Idlib region. Action on Armed Violence. https://aoav.org.uk/2019/27-civilians-killed-in-assad-putin-airstrikes-in-syrias-idlib-region/Date: June 11, 2019 Date accessed: June 27, 2019 Google Scholar These attacks echo prior campaigns by government forces to retake territory through inflicting a heavy civilian price. 4 Jabbour S Fouad FM Leaning J et al. Death and suffering in Eastern Ghouta, Syria: a call for action to protect civilians and health care. Lancet. 2018; 391: 815-817 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (6) Google Scholar However, this offensive is even more catastrophic as civilians are trapped between the closed Turkish border and are unable to return to other parts of Syria with guarantees of their safety. On June 27, 2019, 11 humanitarian organisations warned of the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib, with 3 million lives in danger, including 1 million children. 5 UN NewsSyria's Idlib “on the brink” of a nightmare, humanitarian chiefs warn, launching global solidarity campaign. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/06/1041471Date: June 27, 2019 Date accessed: July 1, 2019 Google Scholar

Localisation and cross-border assistance to deliver humanitarian health services in North-West Syria: a qualitative inquiry for The Lancet-AUB Commission on Syria

BackgroundIn a growing number of humanitarian crises, “remote management” is negotiated across borders and implemented by humanitarian agencies through “local actors” to deliver assistance. However, the narrative describing the involvement of local actors in the delivery of humanitarian aid in armed conflict settings remains reductionist and unreflective of the complex and circular course of the “localisation of aid”. This paper explores cross-border humanitarian assistance within the Syrian conflict. We document how humanitarian actors operate to deliver humanitarian health care in North-West Syria (Turkish border), explore their challenges and critique the language used within current debates on the localisation of aid.MethodsWe undertook key informant interviews with Turkey-based humanitarian aid professionals involved in the humanitarian health response inside Syria. We integrated data previously collected for The Lancet-American University of Beirut Commission on Syria during field work in Gaziantep, Turkey, through meetings, conversations, discussions and expert consultations with Syrian health professionals, WHO-Turkey staff members and members of Syrian health directorates. We also drew from background desk reviews conducted by the Commission on health systems responses and timeline of events in Turkey during the Syrian conflict.ResultsThis paper uncovers creative and effective bottom-up strategies that enhanced cross-border coordination of aid delivery into Syria. Our findings unravel the key role played by Syrian providers in accessing vulnerable populations and in reshaping coordination and funding mechanisms inside Syria, as well as the disproportionate risks local actors bear within the response. Our findings also reveal an iterative negotiation of decision-making dynamics, a “low-profile approach” promoted to gain access to populations of concerns, and an environment that is heavily shaped by close interpersonal relationships and social trust.ConclusionsOur multifaceted narrative unpacks circular flows of interactions among actors and uncovers strategies developed by practitioners on the field, which are often left undocumented. We argue that there is an opportunity for the humanitarian sector to learn from these synergies to rethink how medical humanitarianism is framed (hopefully leading to a more collaborative framing that resists mainstreaming “local” actors within a “traditional” system). There is also an opportunity for the humanitarian and global health communities to reflect on how value attributed to human lives needs to be questioned in contexts where national staff face a disproportionate risk to deliver aid.

IDLIB, THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

After seven years of conflict, the future of the Syrian civil war may come down to the battle for Idlib. Syrian leader Bashar Assad has already taken back control of much of the country, and this northwestern province is the last remaining rebel stronghold. But taking back Idlib won’t be easy. In fact, it’ll be harder and more complicated than many of the other recent campaigns in the south for two reasons. First, it is a much larger region than the areas in the south, such as Daraa, Eastern Ghouta and Quneitra, that the Syrian army seized in recent months. It is, therefore, also more heavily populated with rebels, in part because many of the cease-fires brokered by Russia in the south allowed rebels safe passage out of these areas and into Idlib. Second, Turkey has a military presence in Idlib. This complicates the situation for all parties involved because Turkey and the Syrian regime have conflicting interests in this region. Russia supports the regime but doesn’t want to go to war with Turkey, a country with which it needs to maintain good relations. For this reason, the Syrians are afraid the Russians may abandon them. Meanwhile, Turkey wants room to maneuver in relation to the U.S., and having hostile relations with Russia would limit its options. A battle over Idlib would therefore pose a threat to all parties involved in the conflict. In the wider power struggle among countries in this war, Idlib may be little more than a distraction, but it’s a dangerous one. Winning a military battle here may cost far more than anyone is prepared to pay. This article will consider another option: a deal among these countries to oust the rebel group that controls much of the province. All of these parties have an interest in eliminating this group – one of the most extreme in Idlib – and so it’s the one area where they can cooperate. For now, though, the most likely next phase in Idlib and the Syrian civil war is a concerted effort to eliminate HTS (and its offshoots like Hurras al-Din), and an acceptance of a more permanent Turkish presence in northwest Syria. A deal to eliminate HTC would, therefore, be in the interest of all these parties. But it could break down in two ways. The first would be through insurgent groups’ refusal to accept Turkish control. The second possible breakdown would involve Assad making moves to take back control of Idlib. This would, however, largely depend on how much support the regime could count on from its other stalwart ally, Iran. A solution to the struggle over this pocket of the country is less important than the relations among the big players in this war. It would therefore have to involve some sort of balance among them, perhaps with intermittent and indecisive small-scale combat but without a full-blooded attempt to win. They may not get everything they want out of such a deal, but they will all benefit in some way. And at this point, that may be the best they can hope for.

The client kings of Emesa: a study of local identities in the Roman East

The dynasts of Emesa, today Homs in northwest Syria, ranked among the most important of the Roman allies at the eastern fringe of the Roman Empire. For good reasons the Roman cemetery of Tall Abū Ṣābūn has been identified as necropolis of the royal family. The finds from the 22 tombs of the early and mid of the 1st cent. ad uncovered under the direction of H. Seyrig in 1936 and a tomb monument with pyramidal roof that has been blown up in 1911 have provided valuable information about the cultural history and identity of the client kingdoms in the 1st cent. bc and ad. The objects, mainly clothing accessories, jewellery, weapons and parts of the tomb furniture have recently been subject of a detailed analysis. It reveals a changing self-image of the oriental client kings going together with intensified contacts with Rome. But whereas the burial customs show clear local traditions until the mid of the 1st century the jewellery and insignia show striking parallels to the cultures of the Central-Asian steppe. In the case of Emesa these characteristic items, that originally unified the local elites of the steppe-desert, seem to disappear with the liquidation of the client status in the early 70ies ad, and were substituted by Roman forms of representation. In consideration of the written sources this case study discusses the parameters of identity and identitary change of the eastern client kings in their interaction with Rome. The results reveal that care for control and safety on the eastern fringe of the Roman Empire was only one aspect of their specific role. However their full significance becomes only understandable by regarding the complex cultural, social, political and economic situation in Syria in the 1st cent. ad.

A reliable and non-destructive method for estimating forage shrub cover and biomass in arid environments using digital vegetation charting technique

Despite the importance of fodder shrubs to small ruminant diets and production in arid and semi-arid ecosystems, they are often not considered when quantifying grazing land potential. This oversight is mainly due to the time consuming and costly traditional techniques used to estimate shrub biomass. The shrub fodder component should be measured to avoid underestimation of the carrying capacity of rangelands. In this study, we present a fast, reliable and non-destructive method to estimate canopy vegetation cover to obtain aboveground shrub biomass. The experiment was conducted under field conditions in northwest Syria, where seedlings of seven shrub species were monitored for one year: Atriplex leucoclada (Moq.) Boiss., A. halimus L., A. lentiformis (Torr.) S. Watson, A. canescens (Pursh) Nutt., A. nummularia Lindl., Salsola vermiculata L. and Haloxylon aphyllum (C.A. Meyer) Bunge. The experimental layout was a randomized complete block design with five replications. We explored the effectiveness of digital vegetation charting technique (DVCT) for estimating shrub canopy cover. Aboveground shrub biomass was clipped to estimate the dry matter (DM) weight per species and to determine its relationship to canopy cover. In this study, an estimate of greenness (percent green vegetation cover) was extracted by way of greenness algorithms. Simple linear regressions between vegetation cover and biomass for 210 plots were performed. The cover of the seven species differed (P < 0.01): A. leucoclada had the highest vegetation cover (56%) and H. aphyllum the lowest (7%). Vegetation cover and DM biomass were positively correlated (P < 0.01) with R-squared ranging from 0.66 (H. aphyllum) to 0.84 (S. vermiculata). Our method provided reasonable estimations of canopy coverage which could predict aboveground phytomass. We conclude that DVCT offers a rapid, reliable and consistent measurement of shrub cover and biomass provided that shrubs have open architecture. This study shows the potential of digital cameras and image processing to determine cover/biomass in a non-destructive, timely and cost efficient way.