Northward Propagation Research Articles

Middle Miocene–Pliocene activities of the North Altyn fault system: evidence from apatite fission track data

In this study, apatite fission track (AFT) analyses from opposite sides of the Jianglisai fault are used to constrain the timing of fault activity. Samples collected on the hanging wall have AFT ages between 10 ± 1 and 15 ± 2 Ma and a mean track length ranging from 13.1 ± 0.2 to 13.5 ± 0.2 μm. Samples collected on the footwall have AFT ages between 7.4 ± 0.6 and 9.0 ± 0.9 Ma and a relatively short mean track length that ranges from 11.3 ± 0.2 to 11.6 ± 0.2 μm. AFT modeling revealed that each side experienced two rapid cooling events that were related to tectonic stresses and deformation propagating in a northwestern direction. Combined with electron spin resonance dating constraints, we interpret the rapid cooling of the hanging wall during the Middle Miocene (17–14 Ma) as having recorded that the Jianglisai fault has been active at or prior to ~17 Ma. Both sides of the fault recorded the exhumation event that occurred at approximately 8 Ma, which is responsible for developing the fold-and-thrust belt along the mountain front. The Early Pliocene (about 5 Ma) cooling event indicated that the thrusting-related exhumation in the Jianglisai fault system was a continuously gradual intensified process. The North Altyn Tagh fault system was formed through stepwise thrusting from southeast to northwest during the Middle Miocene to Early Pliocene (17–5 Ma). Since then, the rigid Tarim plate provided constraint on the northward propagation, which likely caused the change from compressional thrusting to thrusting with a left-lateral strike-slip component of the North Altyn Tagh fault system.

Space–Time Structure of Diabatic Heating in Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract The space–time structure of the leading monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) in three-dimensional diabatic heating is studied. Using the ERA-Interim data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the diabatic heating data were constructed by the residual method of the thermodynamic equation. The MISO was extracted by applying multichannel singular spectrum analysis on the daily anomalies of three-dimensional diabatic heating over the South Asian monsoon region for the period 1979–2011.The diabatic heating MISO has a period of 45 days, and exhibits eastward propagation in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans and northward propagation over the entire monsoon region. The horizontal structure shows a long tilted band of heating anomalies propagating northeastward. The period, horizontal pattern, and propagation properties of the diabatic heating MISO are similar to those found in precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, and circulation in earlier studies. The vertical structure of the diabatic heating MISO indicates deep columns, with maximum values at about 450 hPa, propagating northeastward. The vertical structure of the heating anomalies has good correspondence with that of the moisture anomalies but with a phase difference. The moisture anomalies lead the heating anomalies and may provide a preconditioning process for the propagation mechanism. The temperature anomalies also show oscillatory behavior corresponding to the diabatic heating MISO but the phase difference between the two varies from region to region.

Regional Simulation of the October and November MJO Events Observed during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign at Gray Zone Resolution

Abstract This study investigates the October and November MJO events observed during the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY)/Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign through cloud-permitting numerical simulations. The simulations are compared to multiple observational datasets. The control simulation at 9-km horizontal grid spacing captures the slow eastward progression of both the October and November MJO events in surface precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, zonal wind, humidity, and large-scale vertical motion. The vertical motion shows weak ascent in the leading edge of the MJO envelope, followed by deep ascent during the peak precipitation stage and trailed by a broad second baroclinic mode structure with ascent in the upper troposphere and descent in the lower troposphere. Both the simulation and the observations also show slow northward propagation components and tropical cyclone–like vortices after the passage of the MJO active phase. Comparison with synthesized observations from the northern sounding array shows that the model simulates the passage of the two MJO events over the sounding array region well. Sensitivity experiments to SST indicate that daily SST plays an important role for the November MJO event, but much less so for the October event. Analysis of the moist static energy (MSE) budget shows that both advection and diabatic processes (i.e., surface fluxes and radiation) contribute to the development of the positive MSE anomaly in the active phase, but their contributions differ by how much they lead the precipitation peak. In comparison to the observational datasets used here, the model simulation may have a stronger surface flux feedback and a weaker radiative feedback. The normalized gross moist stability in the simulations shows an increase from near-zero values to ~0.8 during the active phase, similar to what is found in the observational datasets.

Late Miocene northward propagation of the northeast Pamir thrust system, northwest China

©2015. American Geophysical Union. Piggyback basins on the margins of growing orogens commonly serve as sensitive recorders of the onset of thrust deformation and changes in source areas. The Bieertuokuoyi piggyback basin, located in the hanging wall of the Pamir Frontal Thrust, provides an unambiguous record of the outward growth of the northeast Pamir margin in northwest China from the Miocene through the Quaternary. To reconstruct the deformation along the margin, we synthesized structural mapping, stratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and cosmogenic burial dating of basin fill and growth strata. The Bieertuokuoyi basin records the initiation of the Pamir Frontal Thrust and the Takegai Thrust ~5-6Ma, as well as clast provenance and paleocurrent changes resulting from the Pliocene-to-Recent uplift and exhumation of the Pamir to the south. Our results show that coeval deformation was accommodated on the major structures on the northeast Pamir margin throughout the Miocene to Recent. Furthermore, our data support a change in the regional kinematics around the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (~5-6Ma). Rapid exhumation of NE Pamir extensional domes, coupled with cessation of the Kashgar-Yecheng Transfer System on the eastern margin of the Pamir, accelerated the outward propagation of the northeastern Pamir margin and the southward propagation of the Kashi-Atushi fold-and-thrust belt in the southern Tian Shan. This coeval deformation signifies the coupling of the Pamir and Tarim blocks and the transfer of shortening north to the Pamir frontal faults and across the quasi-rigid Tarim Basin to the southern Tian Shan Kashi-Atushi fold-and-thrust system.

Relay zone evolution: a history of repeated fault propagation and linkage, central Corinth rift, Greece

AbstractEstablished models indicate that, before being breached, relay zones along rift borders can evolve either by lengthening and rotating during progressive overlap of growing fault segments (isolated fault model), or, by simply rotating without lengthening before breaching (coherent fault model). The spatio‐temporal distribution of vertical motions in a relay zone can thus be used to distinguish fault growth mechanisms. Depositional relay zones that develop at sea level and accommodate both deposition on the ramp itself as well as transfer of sediments from the uplifting footwall into the hangingwall depocentres and provide the most complete record of vertical motions. We examine the development of a depositional relay ramp on the border of the active Corinth rift, Greece to reconstruct fault interaction in time and space using both onshore and offshore (2D seismic lines) data. The Akrata relay zone developed over a period of ca. 0.5 Myr since the Middle Pleistocene between the newly forming East Helike Fault (EHF) that propagated towards the older, more established Derveni Fault (DF). The relay zone captured the Krathis River, which deposited prograding Gilbert‐type deltas on the sub‐horizontal ramp. Successive oblique faults record progressive linkage and basinward migration of accommodation along the ramp axis, whereas marine terraces record diachronous uplift in their footwalls. Although early linkage of the relay zone occurs, continuous propagation and linkage of the EHF onto the static DF is recorded before final beaching. Rotation on forced folds above the upward and laterally propagating normal faults at the borders of the relay zone represents the ramp hinges. The Akrata relay zone cannot be compared directly to a simple fault growth model because (1) the relay zone connects two fault segments of different generations; (2) multiple linkages during propagation was facilitated by the presence of pre‐existing crustal structures, inherited from the Hellenide fold and thrust belt. The linkage of the EHF to the DF contributed to the westward and northward propagation of the southern rift border.

Multi-week prediction of South-East Asia rainfall variability during boreal summer in CFSv2

In this paper we analyze the multi-week prediction bias and skill from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts for 1999–2012. The analyses focus on the prediction of the rainfall variability over South-East Asia during boreal warm seasons and the dependence of the prediction on the activity of intrasesaonal leading modes. It is shown that the prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation is comparable between the total anomalies and intraseasonal anomalies during the first 2 weeks. After week 2, the prediction skill drops substantially and the skill for total anomalies is largely from the prediction for the interannual variability. Moreover, the forecast skill tends to be higher when the amplitude of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is larger, especially for the BSISO. It is noted that the prediction skill over South-East Asia depends on the phase of the BSISO. One deficiency in the CFSv2 is that the northward propagation of the forecast BSISO is generally slower than the observed.

Partial lateral forcing experiments reveal how multi-scale processes induce devastating rainfall: a new application of regional modeling

The 1998 extremely heavy rainfall events over East Asia are investigated through partial lateral forcing (PLF) experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine the impacts of the synoptic (SY), intra-seasonal (IS), and inter-annual (IA) forcing across the lateral boundary on the extreme climate anomalies. The large-scale lateral boundary forcing was derived from an ensemble reanalysis dataset and decomposed into climatological, SY, IS, and IA components. The PLF experiments show that the IS forcing not only triggers the monsoon onset and drives two northward propagation events of the subtropical front but also has dominant contributions to the two heaviest rainfall events over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and South China, suggesting the critical role of the intra-seasonal variability in the devastating 1998 floods. Previous studies perceived that the northward propagating IS oscillation from the tropics regulates the extreme heavy rainfall of East Asia summer monsoon in 1998. However, we find that the IS forcing from the mid-latitude plays a more important role than the forcing from the tropics in generating the two extreme rainfall events in 1998. During the first extreme event in June, the IS forcing across the western boundary is the major cause of the northward advance of the subtropical front and the heavy rainfall over the YRB and South China, with the IS forcing across the northern boundary providing the second largest contribution. During the second extreme event (July 15–August 5), the IS forcing from the eastern boundary plays a dominant role in driving the southward retreat and northward advance of the subtropical front, causing another heavy rainfall over the YRB and South China. The western and northern IS forcing also has large contributions to the second extreme event. We have estimated the contributions to the seasonal anomalous rainfall by the three types of forcing. The SY forcing tends to have a moderate effect on the YRB rainfall but significant reduction of the rainfall in South China. The IS forcing has dominant contributions to the seasonal-mean rainfall anomalies over all three sub-regions of China (North China, the YRB, and South China). The IA forcing mainly enhances the rainfall in South China but reduces the precipitation in the YRB slightly. This study portends a promising application of regional climate models to identify key factors causing extreme climate events. The PLF methodology can be used to study a broad range of climate phenomena and to understand the effects of variety of dynamic and physical processes in climate variability and predictability.

Post-Cimmerian (Jurassic–Cenozoic) paleogeography and vertical axis tectonic rotations of Central Iran and the Alborz Mountains

According to previous paleomagnetic analyses, the northward latitudinal drift of Iran related to the closure of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean resulted in the Late Triassic collision of Iran with the Eurasian plate and Cimmerian orogeny. The post-Cimmerian paleogeographic and tectonic evolution of Iran is instead less well known. Here we present new paleomagnetic data from the Upper Jurassic Bidou Formation of Central Iran, which we used in conjunction with published paleomagnetic data to reconstruct the history of paleomagnetic rotations and latitudinal drift of Iran during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Paleomagnetic inclination values indicate that, during the Late Jurassic, the Central-East-Iranian Microcontinent (CEIM), consisting of the Yazd, Tabas, and Lut continental blocks, was located at low latitudes close to the Eurasian margin, in agreement with the position expected from apparent polar wander paths (APWP) incorporating the so-called Jurassic massive polar shift, a major event of plate motion occurring in the Late Jurassic from 160Ma to 145–140Ma. At these times, the CEIM was oriented WSW–ENE, with the Lut Block bordered to the south by the Neo-Tethys Ocean and to the southeast by the Neo-Sistan oceanic seaway. Subsequently, the CEIM underwent significant counter-clockwise (CCW) rotation during the Early Cretaceous. This rotation may have resulted from the northward propagation of the Sistan rifting-spreading axis during Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous, or to the subsequent (late Early Cretaceous?) eastward subduction and closure of the Sistan oceanic seaway underneath the continental margin of the Afghan Block. No rotations of, or within, the CEIM occurred during the Late Cretaceous–Oligocene, whereas a second phase of CCW rotation occurred after the Middle-Late Miocene. Both the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous and post Miocene CCW rotations are confined to the CEIM and do not seem to extend to other tectonic regions of Iran. Finally, an oroclinal bending mechanism is proposed for the origin of the curved Alborz Mountains, which acquired most of its curvature in the last 8Myr.

An assessment of real‐time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon

AbstractSeveral aspects of real‐time forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in 3–4 pentad lead time (extended range) are discussed in this study to explore the operational capability of the Climate Forecast System model version 2 (CFSv2) developed by National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). 2013 summer monsoon was a near excess monsoon year in terms of seasonal mean and was a result of rich diversity of phenomena including strong intraseasonal variations and intense northward propagations over the Indian region. Eleven‐member forecasts were made at every 5‐day interval during the June–September monsoon season which included monsoon onset and withdrawal phases. The ensemble members were created by perturbing the initial conditions at each start time. In addition to the CFSv2 forecasts, we also carried out forecasts using the atmospheric‐only component (GFSv2) forced with CFSv2‐derived sea surface temperature (SST) subjected to a bias correction based on historical observations (GFSbc runs).Both the CFSv2 and GFSbc runs were able to predict the progression of ISM over the Indian region and the subsequent intraseasonal oscillations (active and break phases). The analysis for an extreme event (Uttarakhand flood) and monsoon revival (MR) towards the end of the season was also performed. Comparison between the two runs shows that active and break spells were predicted with good fidelity over the Indian region, though GFSbc outperforms CFSv2 on several occasions. Thus, improvement of the operational monsoon forecast over Indian region using NCEP CFSv2 requires better representation of air–sea interaction and mean states of ocean.

The Potential Roles of Background Surface Wind in the SST Variability Associated with Intraseasonal Oscillations

Abstract The current study is aimed at exploring the potential roles of the seasonally altering background surface wind in the seasonality of the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) with a focus on the sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A composite analysis of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in term of ISO phases with various satellite data is performed for boreal winter and summer. The scalar wind is found to be a dominant factor that accounts for the ocean surface heat budget, implying that the background surface wind as well as its anomaly is important for the SST variability. An easterly anomaly to the east of convection diminishes scalar wind, and thus latent heat flux, when superposed onto a background westerly wind, implying that the presence of basic westerly wind is important for the development of a warm SST anomaly ahead of the ISO convection. On the other hand, an easterly anomaly in combination with basic easterly wind magnifies scalar wind and latent heat flux and cancels out the shortwave heat flux anomaly. The seasonal migration of the background westerly wind, which is confined to a southern equatorial belt in boreal winter but spread across the northern Indian Ocean in boreal summer, may offer a mechanism that partly accounts for the seasonal characteristics of ISO propagation. The northward propagation of the SST variability associated with the boreal summer ISO is found to also involve a similar mechanism with the meridional wind modulation of scalar wind.

Constraining South Atlantic growth with seafloor spreading data

Recent models of South Atlantic opening history focus on early plate divergence by incorporating intracontinental deformation, which is poorly constrained. Aiming to avoid the uncertainties in this approach, we model the entire divergence history with a joint inversion for seafloor spreading data. For this history, the pre-Campanian motion parameters are the first to feature formal uncertainty estimates. We date the onset of spreading at 138 Ma, with movement along intracontinental accommodation zones leading to the assembly of South America by 123 Ma and Africa by 106 Ma. Part of the ridge in the Agulhas Basin jumped westward soon afterward toward the Bouvet plume, initiating the motion of a short-lived Malvinas Plate. The NE Georgia and Maud rises and Agulhas Plateau formed as a large igneous province over the plume. Farther north, part of the ridge jumped eastward toward the Tristan plume around 94–93 Ma but seems not to have resulted in independent plate motion. Our results show that the South Atlantic grew by diachronous breakup of continents on just two plates. Cretaceous intracontinental deformation in South America and Africa can be interpreted in terms of the accommodation of stress associated with northward propagation of this process. The pattern of accommodation is usually envisaged as focusing all of the strain in narrow belts. With our rotations, a commonly used set of such belts accounts instead for just 42–67% of the implied total strain. We suggest that the remainder was accommodated at all scales within the continental interiors and the extended continental margins.

Process-Oriented Diagnosis of East Pacific Warm Pool Intraseasonal Variability

Abstract June–October east Pacific warm pool intraseasonal variability (ISV) is assessed in eight atmospheric general circulation simulations. Complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to document the leading mode of 30–90-day precipitation variability in the models and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations. The models exhibit a large spread in amplitude of the leading mode about the observed amplitude. Little relationship is demonstrated between the amplitude of the leading mode and the ability of models to simulate observed north-northeastward propagation. Several process-oriented diagnostics are explored that attempt to distinguish why some models produce superior ISV. A diagnostic based on the difference in 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity between the top 5% and the bottom 10% of precipitation events exhibits a significant correlation with leading mode amplitude. Diagnostics based on the vertically integrated moist entropy budget also demonstrate success at discriminating models with strong and weak variability. In particular, the vertical component of gross moist stability exhibits a correlation with amplitude of −0.9, suggesting that models in which convection and associated divergent circulations are less efficient at discharging moisture from the column are better able to sustain strong ISV. Several other diagnostics are tested that show no significant relationship with leading mode amplitude, including the warm pool mean surface zonal wind, the strength of surface flux feedbacks, and 500–850-hPa averaged relative humidity for the top 1% of rainfall events. Vertical zonal wind shear and 850-hPa zonal wind do not appear to be good predictors of model success at simulating the observed northward propagation pattern.

Asymmetric intraseasonal events in the stochastic skeleton MJO model with seasonal cycle

The stochastic skeleton model is a simplified model for the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and intraseasonal-planetary variability in general involving coupling of planetary-scale dry dynamics, moisture, and a stochastic parametrization for the unresolved details of synoptic-scale activity. The model captures the fundamental features of the MJO such as the intermittent growth and demise of MJO wave trains, the MJO propagation speed, peculiar dispersion relation, quadrupole vortex structure, etc. We analyze here the solutions of a stochastic skeleton model with an idealized seasonal cycle, namely a background warm pool state of heating/moistening displacing meridionally during the year. The present model considers both equatorial and off-equatorial components of the envelope of synoptic scale convective activity, which allows for a large diversity of meridionally symmetric and asymmetric intraseasonal events found in nature. These include examples of symmetric events with MJO quadrupole vortex structure, half-quadrupole events with off-equatorial convective heating structure, as well as tilted events with convective heating structure oriented north-westward and associated northward propagation that is reminiscent of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. The model also reproduces qualitatively the meridional migration of intraseasonal variability during the year, that approximatively follows the meridional migration of the background warm pool.

Sm–Nd geochronology of the Erro-Tobbio gabbros (Ligurian Alps, Italy): Insights into the evolution of the Alpine Tethys

article The Alpine-Apennine ophiolites are considered analogs of the oceanic lithosphere formed at ocean-continent transition zones and very slow oceanic spreading centers. They are lithospheric remnants of the Jurassic Piedmont-Ligurian ocean, a branch of the Mesozoic Tethys separating the European and Adriatic continental margins. Previous geochronological studies on gabbroic rocks of the Alpine Tethys indicated a rather large time span of crust formation. In this paper, we present Sm-Nd geochronological data on well-preserved olivine gabbros intruded in mantle peridotites from the Erro-Tobbio ophiolitic unit (Ligurian Alps, Italy). Borghini et al. (2007) documented that these gabbros crystallized at low-P conditions (b5 kb) from primitive N-MORB melts, similar to many gabbroic rocks from Alpine-Apennine ophiolites. Here four plagioclase-clinopyroxene internal Sm-Nd isochrons are presented, yielding equivalent ages and initial eNd values. The ages are 177 ± 7 Ma, 179 ± 7 Ma, 178 ± 21 Ma and 182 ± 19 Ma, reflecting a weighted mean age of 178 ± 5 Ma with initial eNd of 9.2 ± 0.4 (2SD). Similar ages are only recorded in gabbroic rocks from the External Liguride Units (Northern Apennines) and represent the oldest ages available for the gabbroic crust of the Alpine Tethys. These Mg-rich gabbros can therefore be considered as representative of early (syn-rift) melt intrusions in thinned lithospheric mantle exhumed at ocean-continent transition domains, likely close to Adria's continental margin, similar to the hyper-extended Western Iberian Margin. Our new results together with previous ages of the Tethys oceanic crust allow for the reconstruction of the spatial distribution of oceanic gabbros over time, and evaluation of the spreading and propagation rates of this paleo-ocean. The northward propagation rifting velocity, estimated at ~5 cm/year, is presumably higher than the lateral spreading rate of ~2 cm/year. Our rate estimates suggest that the Red Sea is a present-day analog for the evolution of the Piedmont-Ligurian ocean. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated by four Chinese AGCMs participating in the CMIP5 project

The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO: the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) during the boreal summer (May to October), but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific (WP). In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO’s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models’ biases in the BSISO simulation.

Late Oligocene–early Miocene olistostromes (sedimentary mélanges) as tectono-stratigraphic constraints to the geodynamic evolution of the exhumed Ligurian accretionary complex (Northern Apennines, NW Italy)

In the Northern Apennines of Italy, mud-rich olistostromes (sedimentary mélanges) occur at different stratigraphic levels within the late Oligocene–early Miocene sedimentary record of episutural/wedge-top basins. They are widely distributed along the exhumed outer part of the Ligurian accretionary complex, atop the outer Apenninic prowedge, over an area about 300 km long and 10–15 km wide. Olistostromes represent excellent examples of ancient submarine mass-transport complexes (MTCs), consisting of stacked cohesive debris flows that can be directly compared to some of those observed in modern accretionary wedges. We describe the internal arrangement of olistostrome occurrences in the sector between Voghera and the Monferrato area, analysing their relationships with mesoscale liquefaction features, which are commonly difficult to observe in modern MTCs. Slope failures occurred in isolated sectors along the wedge front, where out-of-sequence thrusting, seismicity, and different pulses of overpressured tectonically induced fluid flows acted concomitantly. Referring to the Northern Apennines regional geology, we also point out a gradual lateral rejuvenation (from late Oligocene to early Miocene) toward the SE and an increasing size and thickness of the olistostromes along the strike of the frontal Apenninic prowedge. This suggests that morphological reshaping of the outer prowedge via mass-transport processes balanced, with different pulses over a short time span, the southeastward migration and segmentation of accretionary processes. The latter were probably favoured by the occurrence in the northwestern part of the Northern Apennines of major, inherited palaeogeographic features controlling the northward propagation of the prowedge. Detailed knowledge of olistostromes, as ancient examples of MTCs related to syn-sedimentary tectonics and shale diapirism, and of their lateral variations in term of age and size, provides useful information in regard to better understanding of both the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the Apenninic prowedge and the submarine slope failures in modern accretionary wedges.

Asymmetry in space–time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years: Role of seasonal mean state

ABSTRACTA diagnostic study of the space–time characteristics of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) during strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) years is carried out to gain insight on the role of the seasonal mean states on the MISOs using long observational and reanalysis datasets. Prominent asymmetry is noted in the duration and magnitude of active‐break spells associated with MISO during SM and WM years. Such difference is also reflected in the northward propagation of MISOs over the Indian subcontinent that show fast (slow) propagation during active phase of WM (SM), while the situation is just opposite during breaks. We hypothesize that considerable differences in the seasonal mean states during these extreme monsoon years may be responsible for these asymmetries. In support of this hypothesis, it is found that during WM (SM) years, the seasonal mean zonal winds associated with the convective region have anomalous barotropic (baroclinic) vertical structure, while a baroclinic (barotropic) structure dominates over region of suppressed convection. Evolution of meridional–vertical structure of the MISO anomalies during SM and WM also highlights the role of barotropic zonal wind anomalies in the northward propagation. From the barotropic zonal momentum budget analysis, it is demonstrated that meridional and vertical advection of the seasonal mean zonal wind anomaly may be largely responsible for such asymmetry in intensity, life span and propagation characteristics of the MISOs during SM and WM years.

Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the recent warming period

AbstractThe Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during the boreal summer has shown a significant warming of 0.3°C in the recent decade (2001–2010) compared to a former decade (1979–1988), and it is most pronounced in the central tropical Indian Ocean. By using reanalysis and satellite‐derived data sets, we investigated how the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) over the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region has been influenced by the recent warming in the Indian Ocean. It is found that the MISO variance has increased over the ASM region in the recent period compared with the earlier decade. It is also noted that the characteristic northward propagation of the MISO has slowed over 2001–2010, resembling more of a standing oscillation near the equator. Mechanisms implicated in the observed MISO changes are explored by conducting several model sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model experiments suggest that the mean SST increase over the Indian Ocean, and the associated changes in the air‐sea interaction, the increased mean moisture convergence, and changes in the large‐scale circulation are responsible for the changes in the characteristics of the MISO. The influence of the recent Indian Ocean warming on the MISO characteristics must be understood fully since they determine the seasonal amount of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. An examination of future projections of the MISO using the MPI‐ESM‐LR model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 archive also gives consistent result.

Subseasonal variability of water vapor in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere over Northern Europe in winter 2009/2010

For the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM) we used microwave spectrometer measurements of water vapor to investigate the cause of subseasonal variability over Northern Europe: at ALOMAR (Andenes, 69.3° N, 16.1° E), Northern Norway, and at the Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Kühlungsborn, 54.2° N, 11.8° E), Northern Germany, for winter 2009/2010. The MERRA data set of NASA is applied to study the dynamical link between the local variability of H2O and transport in the USLM.Besides a slow increase in January and a stronger decrease in February and March 2010, episodes of significant increase and decrease of H2O were found over Northern Germany. These structural changes are in good agreement with MERRA which show similar patterns induced by a dominant conservative horizontal transport of H2O. Due to the strong negative meridional gradient and mixing barrier, higher values of water vapor have been observed outside the polar vortex and lower values inside. We found that the complex polar vortex evolution over Northern Germany during the minor stratospheric sudden warming (mSSW) in the beginning of December 2009 and the major warming (MSSW) at the end of January 2010, as well as between the two, fits well into this relationship. An episode of strong increase in water vapor over ALOMAR at about 55–60km altitude was observed during the MSSW on the 27th of January 2010 resulting in a significant double peak in altitude. Based on MERRA data we show that this dual peak was caused by a relatively strong regional northward propagation of more moist air in the lower mesosphere. In the lower mesosphere strong polar intrusion of warm and moist air occurred mainly over Northern Europe resulting in a well-mixed polar anticyclone on the 30th of January. In comparison with observations the local maxima of H2O in MERRA are underestimated by approximately 1–2ppmv. After the MSSW, the vertical descent rate of the MERRA reanalysis is half as much as the observed one over Kühlungsborn.Nevertheless the high coherence between local water vapor measurements over Northern Germany and Northern Norway and MERRA supports the extended use of MERRA for subseasonal transport studies in the USLM. We conclude that the observed strong subseasonal variability of H2O in the USLM over Northern Europe, especially over Kühlungsborn and over ALOMAR, during the winter 2009/2010 was caused by the passage of the edge of polar vortex and linked transport of H2O.

Evolution, distribution, and characteristics of rifting in southern Ethiopia

AbstractSouthern Ethiopia is a key region to understand the evolution of the East African rift system, since it is the area of interaction between the main Ethiopian rift (MER) and the Kenyan rift. However, geological data constraining rift evolution in this remote area are still relatively sparse. In this study the timing, distribution, and style of rifting in southern Ethiopia are constrained by new structural, geochronological, and geomorphological data. The border faults in the area are roughly parallel to preexisting basement fabrics and are progressively more oblique with respect to the regional Nubia–Somalia motion proceeding southward. Kinematic indicators along these faults are mainly dip slip, pointing to a progressive rotation of the computed direction of extension toward the south. Radiocarbon data indicate post 30 ka faulting at both western and eastern margins of the MER with limited axial deformation. Similarly, geomorphological data suggest recent fault activity along the western margins of the basins composing the Gofa Province and in the Chew Bahir basin. This supports that interaction between the MER and the Kenyan rift in southern Ethiopia occurs in a 200 km wide zone of ongoing deformation. Fault‐related exhumation at ~10–12 Ma in the Gofa Province, as constrained by new apatite fission track data, occurred later than the ~20 Ma basement exhumation of the Chew Bahir basin, thus pointing to a northward propagation of the Kenyan rift‐related extension in the area.