Northern Populations Research Articles

Craniometrical sexual dimorphism of the grey wolf (Canis lupus, Canidae, Carnivora) in Bulgaria

Cranial sexual dimorphism in grey wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) from Bulgaria has not been studied so far. Skulls from adult individuals from across the country were studied. Thirty-six parameters (35 craniodental measurements and a volumetric one) of each skull were measured. The Bulgarian wolf population exhibits weak craniodental sexual dimorphism, which is male-biased, as is typical in canids with a monogamous social system. However, the sexual dimorphism is more pronounced than in the studied more northern populations.

Predictable local adaptation in butterfly photoperiodism but not thermal performance along a latitudinal cline

AbstractIn seasonal environments, organisms must synchronize their life cycles to conditions favorable for growth and reproduction. Because season length varies geographically, local adaptation should arise in traits that regulate phenological responses. Geographic photoperiodism clines are well known, but comparable studies on thermal performance are equivocal and often overlook nonlinear responses. Therefore, we examined local adaptation in plastic responses to both photoperiod and temperature along a 752‐km latitudinal cline, by comparing four Swedish populations of the butterfly Pieris napi. Using a common garden design, we estimated (1) photoperiod response curves for diapause induction and (2) thermal performance curves for development and growth rates. We show that differences in photoperiodism follow the expected geographical pattern, where diapause is induced at longer daylengths in northern populations (where growth seasons are short and summer days long). However, population differences in thermal performance curves were small and seemingly idiosyncratic, without clear clinal patterns. Photoperiodic responses appear to evolve more readily than thermal responses, highlighting photoperiodism as a key driver of local life cycle synchronization.

Intraspecific divergence in a coastal plant, Euphorbia jolkinii, at a major biogeographic boundary in East Asia.

Quaternary climatic fluctuations and long-distance seed dispersal across the sea are critical factors affecting the distribution of coastal plants, but the spatiotemporal nature of population expansion and distribution change of East Asian coastal plants during this period are rarely examined. To explore this process, we investigated the genome-wide phylogenetic patterns of Euphorbia jolkinii Boiss. (Euphorbiaceae), which grows widely on littoral areas of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We used plastome sequences and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms in samples across the species range to reveal phylogeographic patterns and spatiotemporal distributional changes. We conducted ecological niche modeling for the present and the last glacial maximum (LGM). Genetic differentiation was observed between the northern and southern populations of E. jolkinii, separated by the major biogeographic boundary, the Tokara Gap. These two groups of populations differentiated during the glacial period and subsequently intermingled in the intermorainic areas of the central Ryukyu Islands after the LGM. Ecological niche models suggested that the potential range of E. jolkinii was restricted to southern Kyushu; however, it was widespread in the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan during the LGM. This study provides evidence of genetic differentiation among coastal plant populations separated by the prominent biogeographical boundary. Although coastal plants are typically expected to maintain population connectivity through sea-drifted seed dispersal, our findings suggest that genetic differences may arise because of a combination of limited gene flow and changes in climate during the glacial period.

Genetic variability of histidine-rich protein 2 repeat sequences: Misleading factor in true determination of Plasmodium falciparum in different population

PurposeGenetically diverse parasites enhances resistance against antimalarials, vaccines and host immune responses. The present study was designed to evaluate the role played by Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity in predicting the real world malarial population. MethodsInitially, the incidence pattern of all four northern Indian malarial species was examined using 18S rRNA gene and performed principal component analysis (PCA) based on frequencies of Plasmodium species. Consequently, genetic variance of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (Pfhrp2) gene among different malarial populations were compared using phylogenetic analysis. Multi-dimensional scaling was performed to assess genetic similarities and distances among studied populations. ResultsOf total 2168 patients screened, 561 patients with fever of unknown origin were included. 18S rRNA and Pfhrp2 genes were amplified in 78 and 45 samples, respectively. Among them 13.9%(78/561) patients had Plasmodium infection. Infections by P. falciparum, P. vivax and mixed infections were diagnosed among 47(60.2%) and 28(35.9%) and 3(3.8%) patients, respectively. We found eight types of Pfhrp2 amino acid sequence repeats among northern Indian population. The PCA findings were in line with genetic diversity and phylogenetic data. Temporal analysis showed the proportion of total diversity present in total subpopulation (ΔS/ΔT) was maximum for P. falciparum. ConclusionsHigher incidence of Pfhrp2 sequence variation through genetic recombination among multiple strains during sexual reproduction is potentially correlated with high transmission activity. This sequence variation might alter RDT detection sensitivities for different parasites by modulating the structure and frequency of antigenic epitopes.

Traversing the Great Lakes: Post‐glacial colonization by a widespread terrestrial salamander

AbstractAimsGlacial retreat at the end of the Pleistocene epoch opened vast expanses of emergent habitat in the northern hemisphere that were colonized by opportunistic taxa. However, species that undergo post‐glacial expansion may have originated from one or several glacial refugia. We inferred the post‐glacial expansion history of the Eastern Red‐backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus), a fully terrestrial species with a vast distribution despite severe dispersal limitations. Previous studies indicated populations south of the glacial boundary at the eastern and western limits of the distribution were closely related, suggesting either multiple refugia or an extraordinary post‐glacial expansion event.LocationEastern North America.Taxon Plethodon cinereus (Green, 1818), Caudata: Plethodontidae.MethodsWe collected ddRAD‐seq data from 106 individuals throughout the distribution of P. cinereus. We estimated phylogeographic structure, including finer‐scale structure among the post‐glacial populations. To test the origins and routes of colonization, we used ecological niche modelling, population trees and analyses of directional range expansion.ResultsAnalyses supported our hypothesis of a southeastern glacial refugium, with northward expansion along the Eastern Seaboard prior to westward invasion into the Great Lakes region, including southwestern expansion into unglaciated areas at the western end of the distribution. However, a distinct subgroup in the northwestern portion of the range raises the possibility of a second refugium near the ice‐free Driftless Area.Main ConclusionsBased on our results, we hypothesize a southeastern refugium from which most of today's northern populations undertook extensive post‐glacial colonization. Our results indicate a geographically non‐linear colonization history for P. cinereus.

Habitat characteristics and the rate of decline in a threatened farmland bird, the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana

Farmland habitats witness steep declines in biodiversity. One rapidly declining farmland species is the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana. In Finland, a staggering 99% of the population has been lost during the past 30 years. Changes in the breeding habitats have been proposed as a reason for the decline, although hazards during migration and wintering may also play a role.We gathered a 19‐year data set of Finnish ortolan buntings and studied which spatial characteristics, habitat features, and climate factors might explain the population growth rate at the singing‐group level. As explanatory variables we used region, density of small‐scale structures, proportion of agricultural area in the landscape, diversity of crop types, proportion of bare ground, and temperature and precipitation of previous breeding season.Higher population growth rates were associated with higher crop type diversity and higher proportion of bare ground. The mosaic of various crop plants and bare ground may provide a wider array of feeding, hiding and nesting places, and an easier access to food. Higher growth rates were also associated with landscapes dominated by interconnected agricultural land, which may reflect the species' sociability and avoidance of forested areas. The North Ostrobothnia region had higher growth rates compared to other regions.We suggest that northern populations of ortolan bunting should be targeted for further studies on feeding and breeding ecology as well as for urgent conservation actions, such as increasing crop type diversity and bare ground.

Age Estimation by Machine Learning and CT-Multiplanar Reformation of Cranial Sutures in Northern Chinese Han Adults.

To establish age estimation models of northern Chinese Han adults using cranial suture images obtained by CT and multiplanar reformation (MPR), and to explore the applicability of cranial suture closure rule in age estimation of northern Chinese Han population. The head CT samples of 132 northern Chinese Han adults aged 29-80 years were retrospectively collected. Volume reconstruction (VR) and MPR were performed on the skull, and 160 cranial suture tomography images were generated for each sample. Then the MPR images of cranial sutures were scored according to the closure grading criteria, and the mean closure grades of sagittal suture, coronal sutures (both left and right) and lambdoid sutures (both left and right) were calculated respectively. Finally taking the above grades as independent variables, the linear regression model and four machine learning models for age estimation (gradient boosting regression, support vector regression, decision tree regression and Bayesian ridge regression) were established for northern Chinese Han adults age estimation. The accuracy of each model was evaluated. Each cranial suture closure grade was positively correlated with age and the correlation of sagittal suture was the highest. All four machine learning models had higher age estimation accuracy than linear regression model. The support vector regression model had the highest accuracy among the machine learning models with a mean absolute error of 9.542 years. The combination of skull CT-MPR and machine learning model can be used for age estimation in northern Chinese Han adults, but it is still necessary to combine with other adult age estimation indicators in forensic practice.

Faecal bacterial communities differ amongst discrete foraging populations of dugongs along the east Australian coast.

Gut bacterial communities play a vital role in a host's digestion and fermentation of complex carbohydrates, absorption of nutrients, and energy harvest/storage. Dugongs are obligate seagrass grazers with an expanded hindgut and associated microbiome. Here, we characterised and compared the faecal bacterial communities of dugongs from genetically distinct populations along the east coast of Australia, between subtropical Moreton Bay and tropical Cleveland Bay. Amplicon sequencing of fresh dugong faecal samples (n=47) revealed Firmicutes (62%) dominating the faecal bacterial communities across all populations. Several bacterial genera (Bacteroides, Clostridium sensu stricto 1, Blautia and Polaribacter) were detected in samples from all locations, suggesting their importance in seagrass digestion. Principal coordinate analysis showed the three southern-most dugong populations having different faecal bacterial community compositions from northern populations. The relative abundances of the genera Clostridium sensu stricto 13 and dgA-11 gut group were higher, but Bacteroides was lower, in the southern dugong populations, compared to the northern populations, suggesting potential adaptive changes associated with location. This study contributes to our knowledge of the faecal bacterial communities of dugongs inhabiting Australian coastal waters. Future studies of diet selection in relation to seagrass availability throughout the dugong's range will help to advance our understanding of the roles that seagrass species may play in affecting the dugong's faecal bacterial community composition.

Genetic basis of local adaptation in the cold-tolerant mangrove Kandelia obovata.

Understanding the genetic basis of local adaption is crucial in the context of global climate change. Mangroves, as salt-tolerant trees and shrubs in the intertidal zone of tropical and subtropical coastlines, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Kandelia obovata, the most cold-tolerant mangrove species, has undergone ecological speciation from its cold-intolerant counterpart, Kandelia candel, with geographic separation by the South China Sea. In this study, we conducted whole-genome re-sequencing of K. obovata populations along China's southeast coast, to elucidate the genetic basis responsible for mangrove local adaptation to climate. Our analysis revealed a strong population structure among the three K. obovata populations, with complex demographic histories involving population expansion, bottleneck, and gene flow. Genome-wide scans unveiled pronounced patterns of selective sweeps in highly differentiated regions among pairwise populations, with stronger signatures observed in the northern populations compared to the southern population. Additionally, significant genotype-environment associations for temperature-related variables were identified, while no associations were detected for precipitation. A set of 39 high-confidence candidate genes underlying local adaptation of K. obovata were identified, which are distinct from genes under selection detected by comparison between K. obovata and its cold-intolerant relative K. candel. These results significantly contribute to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of local adaptation in K. obovata and provide valuable insights into the evolutionary processes shaping the genetic diversity of mangrove populations in response to climate change.

Genomic insights into local adaptation and vulnerability of Quercus longinux to climate change

BackgroundClimate change is expected to alter the factors that drive changes in adaptive variation. This is especially true for species with long life spans and limited dispersal capabilities. Rapid climate changes may disrupt the migration of beneficial genetic variations, making it challenging for them to keep up with changing environments. Understanding adaptive genetic variations in tree species is crucial for conservation and effective forest management. Our study used landscape genomic analyses and phenotypic traits from a thorough sampling across the entire range of Quercus longinux, an oak species native to Taiwan, to investigate the signals of adaptation within this species.ResultsUsing ecological data, phenotypic traits, and 1,933 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 205 individuals, we classified three genetic groups, which were also phenotypically and ecologically divergent. Thirty-five genes related to drought and freeze resistance displayed signatures of natural selection. The adaptive variation was driven by diverse environmental pressures such as low spring precipitation, low annual temperature, and soil grid sizes. Using linear-regression-based methods, we identified isolation by environment (IBE) as the optimal model for adaptive SNPs. Redundancy analysis (RDA) further revealed a substantial joint influence of demography, geology, and environments, suggesting a covariation between environmental gradients and colonization history. Lastly, we utilized adaptive signals to estimate the genetic offset for each individual under diverse climate change scenarios. The required genetic changes and migration distance are larger in severe climates. Our prediction also reveals potential threats to edge populations in northern and southeastern Taiwan due to escalating temperatures and precipitation reallocation.ConclusionsWe demonstrate the intricate influence of ecological heterogeneity on genetic and phenotypic adaptation of an oak species. The adaptation is also driven by some rarely studied environmental factors, including wind speed and soil features. Furthermore, the genetic offset analysis predicted that the edge populations of Q. longinux in lower elevations might face higher risks of local extinctions under climate change.

Parallel evolution despite low genetic diversity in three-spined sticklebacks.

When populations repeatedly adapt to similar environments they can evolve similar phenotypes based on shared genetic mechanisms (parallel evolution). The likelihood of parallel evolution is affected by demographic history, as it depends on the standing genetic variation of the source population. The three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) repeatedly colonized and adapted to brackish and freshwater. Most parallel evolution studies in G. aculeatus were conducted at high latitudes, where freshwater populations maintain connectivity to the source marine populations. Here, we analysed southern and northern European marine and freshwater populations to test two hypotheses. First, that southern European freshwater populations (which currently lack connection to marine populations) lost genetic diversity due to bottlenecks and inbreeding compared to their northern counterparts. Second, that the degree of genetic parallelism is higher among northern than southern European freshwater populations, as the latter have been subjected to strong drift due to isolation. The results show that southern populations exhibit lower genetic diversity but a higher degree of genetic parallelism than northern populations. Hence, they confirm the hypothesis that southern populations have lost genetic diversity, but this loss probably happened after they had already adapted to freshwater conditions, explaining the high degree of genetic parallelism in the south.

Distribution and Population Genetic Structure of the Hau Giang Medaka, Oryzias haugiangensis, Along the East Coast of the Indochinese Peninsula.

The east coast of the Indochinese Peninsula is a well-known transition zone from subtropical to tropical systems, yet only a small number of studies have been conducted on the biogeography and phylogeography of aquatic organisms in this region. The Hau Giang medaka, Oryzias haugiangensis, was originally described from the Mekong Delta in southern Vietnam, and later reported also from southeastern Thailand, west of the Mekong Delta region. However, the species' full geographic range and population genetic structures remain unknown. Field surveys showed a widespread distribution of this species along the east coast of the Indochinese Peninsula, as far as northern Vietnam. A mitochondrial gene phylogeny and population genetic structure analysis using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms revealed that the populations of O. haugiangensis are highly structuralized along the east coast of Vietnam, with the southernmost Mekong Delta population clearly separated from three populations north of central Vietnam. Further field collections are necessary to determine the boundary between the southern and northern populations, and the presence or absence of a hybrid zone.

Regional differences in stem form between southern and northern red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) populations

Abstract Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) is a commercially and ecologically important conifer species that primarily exists at northern latitudes of eastern North America and extends southward following the Appalachian Mountains into North Carolina and Tennessee. Due to a warming climate and human-caused disturbances, only fragmented, sky-island populations remain at the highest peaks of the southern Appalachians where their habitat continues to be threatened. While they have been recognized for the rare wildlife habitat they provide in the region, these populations remain understudied. This work aimed to examine differences in stem form between the northern and southern populations of red spruce and to provide additional quantitative methods for managing red spruce stands through providing regionally fitted stem taper models. First, we examined differences in stem form using two methods: a sectional rate of change in diameter and a region variable added to the Kozak (2004) Model 02 taper model. The sectional taper comparison showed significant differences (P < .05) in taper rate throughout the stem that were most pronounced below breast height and above the midpoint. The nested model comparison also showed a significant difference after performing a likelihood ratio test. These results agreed that significant differences in stem form between the two populations exist and supported the idea that localized taper models would provide the best results. Next, we evaluated four stem taper models for their ability to predict upper stem diameters and total volume in southern Appalachian red spruce: a quadratic polynomial, a segmented, a variable exponent, and a geometric model. Fitting data came from a 1992 study across three southern Appalachian spruce-fir sites. Validation data came from a new dataset collected in 2022 at Unaka Mountain, Tennessee. Based on past studies and our results, we found that the Kozak (My last words on taper equations. For Chron 2004;80:507–15. https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc80507-4.) Model 02 variable exponent and the Max and Burkhart (Segmented polynomial regression applied to taper equations. For Sci 1976;22:283–9.) segmented polynomial models performed equally well. The choice of the final model should depend on the users’ objectives and practical limitations (i.e. programming ability, availability of fitting data, error tolerance).

Whole genomes show contrasting trends of population size changes and genomic diversity for an Amazonian endemic passerine over the late quaternary.

The "Amazon tipping point" is a global change scenario resulting in replacement of upland terra-firme forests by large-scale "savannization" of mostly southern and eastern Amazon. Reduced rainfall accompanying the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been proposed to have acted as such a tipping point in the past, with the prediction that terra-firme inhabiting species should have experienced reductions in population size as drier habitats expanded. Here, we use whole-genomes of an Amazonian endemic organism (Scale-backed antbirds - Willisornis spp.) sampled from nine populations across the region to test this historical demography scenario. Populations from southeastern Amazonia and close to the Amazon-Cerrado ecotone exhibited a wide range of demographic patterns, while most of those from northern and western Amazonia experienced uniform expansions between 400 kya and 80-60 kya, with gradual declines toward 20 kya. Southeastern populations of Willisornis were the last to diversify and showed smaller heterozygosity and higher runs of homozygosity values than western and northern populations. These patterns support historical population declines throughout the Amazon that affected more strongly lineages in the southern and eastern areas, where historical "tipping point" conditions existed due to the widespread replacement of humid forest by drier and open vegetation during the LGM.

Variation in genomic vulnerability to climate change across temperate populations of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

AbstractA global decline in seagrass populations has led to renewed calls for their conservation as important providers of biogenic and foraging habitat, shoreline stabilization and carbon storage. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) occupies the largest geographic range among seagrass species spanning a commensurately broad spectrum of environmental conditions. In Canada, eelgrass is managed as a single phylogroup despite occurring across three oceans and a range of ocean temperatures and salinity gradients. Previous research has focused on applying relatively few markers to reveal population structure of eelgrass, whereas a whole‐genome approach is warranted to investigate cryptic structure among populations inhabiting different ocean basins and localized environmental conditions. We used a pooled whole‐genome re‐sequencing approach to characterize population structure, gene flow and environmental associations of 23 eelgrass populations ranging from the Northeast United States to Atlantic, subarctic and Pacific Canada. We identified over 500,000 SNPs, which when mapped to a chromosome‐level genome assembly revealed six broad clades of eelgrass across the study area, with pairwise FST ranging from 0 among neighbouring populations to 0.54 between Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Genetic diversity was highest in the Pacific and lowest in the subarctic, consistent with colonization of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans from the Pacific less than 300 kya. Using redundancy analyses and two climate change projection scenarios, we found that subarctic populations are predicted to be potentially more vulnerable to climate change through genomic offset predictions. Conservation planning in Canada should thus ensure that representative populations from each identified clade are included within a national network so that latent genetic diversity is protected, and gene flow is maintained. Northern populations, in particular, may require additional mitigation measures given their potential susceptibility to a rapidly changing climate.

Ancestry and genetic structure of resident and anadromous rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in Argentina.

Since the first introduction from North America more than a century ago, rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) have rapidly established self-sustaining populations in major river basins of Patagonia. Many generations later, only the freshwater resident life history is expressed in the Chubut and Negro rivers of northern Argentinian Patagonia, whereas both the resident and anadromous life histories are found in the Santa Cruz River of southern Argentina. Despite previous studies that have tried to identify the sources of these introduced populations, uncertainty still exists. Here we combined data from many single-nucleotide polymorphisms and microsatellite loci in O. mykiss populations from Argentina and North America to evaluate putative source populations, gene flow between Argentinian river basins, and genetic diversity differences between Argentinian and North American populations. We found that populations from northern and southern Patagonia are highly differentiated and have limited gene flow between them. Phylogeographic analysis also confirmed that they have separate origins, with the northern populations most closely related to the domesticated rainbow trout strains that are raised worldwide and the Santa Cruz River populations most closely related to North American populations from California and Oregon that have an anadromous component. In addition, fish with different life histories in the Santa Cruz River were found to constitute a single interbreeding population. No evidence was found of reduced genetic variation in introduced rainbow trout, suggesting multiple contributing sources. In spite of these advances in understanding, significant questions remain regarding the origins and evolution of the introduced O. mykiss in Patagonia.

Simulating a hybridization event of a range-expanding sexual cannibal (Argiope bruennichi)

Abstract Hybridization plays an important role in animal speciation. Mediterranean populations of the Palaearctic wasp spider Argiope bruennichi have recently undergone a range expansion northwards. Adaptation to colder winters was facilitated by introgressed alleles derived from Asian populations, hence the resulting hybrids were able to expand geographically. Argiope bruennichi exhibits a highly complex mating system that includes strong sexual conflict and predisposes the species to behaviours that could facilitate directed hybridization and hybrid stabilization. To test this, we simulated a hybridization event with European and Asian spiders and a backcrossing event with southern and northern European spiders by conducting mate choice experiments and mating trials. We found pronounced differences in the cannibalism and monopolization successes between the populations. Asian male spiders were more successful in monopolizing European females than their European conspecifics and more successful than European males with Asian females. This would have led to an increased proportion of these specific offspring in the hybrid population. Our results suggest the mating system as a driving factor in the directional hybridization of Asian males and European females and the establishment of new northern European populations of A. bruennichi. We found no influences of the mating system on the stabilization of the resulting hybrid populations, probably owing to cold survival adaptations being a more important factor.

Характеристика микрогаплотипа гена FADS2 у коренного населения Сибири

Our study of the FADS2 gene polymorphism in the indigenous populations of Siberia resulted in finding a microhaplotype of 150 nucleotides in length, represented by various combinations of polymorphism variants in four loci (rs174609, rs174610, rs174611, rs74771917). By these loci, 5 microhaplotype variants were identifie d in the studied populations of the northeastern (Chukchi, Koryak, Even) and southeastern (Buryat) parts of Siberia, the effective numbe r of which (Ae) varies from 2.16 in Buryats to 3.89 in Koryaks. Heterozygosity values in the populations vary from 0.624 in Buryats to 0.805 in Evens. The analysis of genetic differentiation showed highly authentic differences between the northern and southern populations of Siberia's eastern part in the distribution of the FADS2 gene microhaplotype variants. Thus, this microhaplotype has a sufficiently high informativity for detecting genetic differences between Siberian indigenous populations and can, therefore, be used in panels of markers designed for genetic identification at the population and individual level.

Food Composition of the Little Owl Athene noctua in Farmland Areas of South East Poland

The feeding ecology of the Little Owl (Athene noctua) was studied in farmlands of southeast Poland, which is dominated by monocultural farms. 3065 prey dissected from pellets were collected at 13 pellet stations between 1999 and 2001 through 7 seasons in total. Mammals were found to dominate both in total number (54.3% of caught prey) and total biomass (93.0% of caught prey) while insects comprised 43.0% of the number, but only 1.1% of the prey biomass. However, the proportion of insects reached up to 62% in certain seasons. Coleopteran beetles dominated the insect fraction representing 98.3% of the number and 87.9% of the insect biomass. Our study also illustrated that in some seasons, the prey composition included taxa related to intensive agricultural management. The food composition of the Little Owls from the examined Polish sites is more similar to Eastern and Southern populations than to Northern and Western populations of Little Owls in Europe.

The northern wheatear is reducing its distribution in its southernmost European range and moving to higher altitudes

Under the current pattern of climate change, mountain bird populations are generally shifting their ranges to higher elevations, tracking their climatic optima. Nevertheless, space limitations at high altitudes constrain mountain species' resilience to climatic change, making them particularly vulnerable. In extreme cases, the climatic niche of some species can move beyond mountaintops, ultimately driving such species to extinction. This study presents the case of the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe in mainland Spain and compares its breeding distribution from 2003 to 2022. Spain, where the species mostly occupies mountain areas, represents its southernmost distribution limit in Europe. We built environmental favourability models using information from the two most recent Spanish bird atlases and a set of climatic, topographic, human activity and lithological variables to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the species. The influence of climate compared to all other factors was obtained using variation partitioning analysis. The northern wheatear has suffered a strong reduction (67%) in occupied areas and also in favourability throughout mainland Spain (especially in the south) where climate change may have far‐reaching consequences, including local extinctions. Climate explained more than 90% of the variation in the model obtained for 2022. Interestingly, the occupied areas were, on average, 100 m higher in 2022 than in 2003. If the effects of climate warming persist, the northern wheatear will likely disappear in its southernmost distribution limit, being the Sierra de las Nieves National Park population the most vulnerable in mainland Spain. For this reason, it is necessary to implement monitoring programmes for northern wheatear populations, with priority for mountain systems wherein they already occupy higher elevations, as well as further studies on other mountain species.