Northern Ireland Assembly Election Research Articles

Voting into a Void? The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

AbstractThe election to the Northern Ireland Assembly in May 2022 witnessed significant changes to the region's political balance. For the first time, a nationalist party became the largest, with Sinn Féin's new leading position allowing the party to provide the First Minister. The main party of unionism, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was relegated to second place. This runner‐up position entitled the party to nominate the Deputy First Minister. However, in the immediate aftermath of the election, the DUP declined to do so, amid a crisis for the political institutions established under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. According to the DUP, it would return to power sharing with nationalists only upon removal of the European Union Protocol, agreed between the EU and UK government in 2019. The Protocol uniquely aligns Northern Ireland with EU rules and requires checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Alongside unionist versus nationalist rivalries, however, the election was also marked by the best‐ever performance by a party of the centre ground subscribing to neither ideology, as Alliance more than doubled its Assembly seat tally. It was now possible to speak of three big pillars in Northern Irish politics: unionist, nationalist and non‐aligned, each dominated by a single party. This article examines what happened at the election, assessing the key issues and party fortunes.

More of the Same? The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

More of the Same? The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

‘What is it about “fuck off” you don’t understand?’ The NILRC and politics of the Left in Northern Ireland

At the 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly Election, a somewhat peculiar political ‘party’ hastily filled in nomination papers at the 11th hour. This last-minute concoction was elaborately named ‘The Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee’. This article seeks to explore the circumstances around the creation of the NILRC, thereby developing a synthesis of the present-day situation of the Labour Party in Northern Ireland (LPNI), the local Constituency Labour Party (CLP) of the UK Labour Party. In a backdrop in which UK Labour does not stand for elections in Northern Ireland, this article engages with the LPNI’s rationale and raison d’être, followed by a discussion of the NILRC experiment of 2016. The LPNI–NILRC case carries resonances and insights of interest to political groups of the left operating in deeply divided societies.

Managing Orderly Decline? Nationalism in Northern Ireland Since the Good Friday Agreement (1998)

AbstractThe 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election highlighted substantive issues within nationalism. Both the main nationalist parties, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Sinn Féin, recorded the worst combined vote for over 20 years. This article suggests that the downturn in nationalist support was years in the making and examines why nationalist voters might be turning away from the ballot box. It considers the various factors that underlined both parties' approach to consecutive electoral tests from 1998 until 2016, showing how Sinn Féin replaced the SDLP as the leading force within nationalism, and concluding that new leadership may yet halt the process of orderly decline.

A fresh start? The Northern Ireland Assembly election 2016

ABSTRACTAs voters across Northern Ireland went to the polls on 5 May 2016, it was by no means obvious that they were participating in a landmark election. The preceding campaign was largely lacklustre, voters were left uninspired, and competition for votes was primarily conducted along predictable ethno-national lines. The Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin retained their positions as the dominant unionist and nationalist parties respectively, while the Ulster Unionist Party and Social Democratic and Labour Party struggled to retain their existing support, let alone expand it. The cross-community Alliance Party remained stagnant in fifth place. However, these ostensive signs of continuity with previous elections mask deeper signs of substantive change. The establishment of Northern Ireland’s first official opposition within current structures and the publication of a draft Programme for Government framework within a month of the election are indicative of a new era in consociational power sharing. Meanwhile, the growth in support for smaller parties, a further fall in voter turnout and an audible debate around social issues suggest at least a partial decline in the salience of the ethno-national dimension in the electoral arena.

Holding parties responsible at election time: Multi-level, multi-party government and electoral accountability

This paper highlights the crucial role played by party-specific responsibility attributions in performance-based voting. Three models of electoral accountability, which make distinct assumptions regarding citizens' ability to attribute responsibility to distinct governing parties, are tested in the challenging Northern Ireland context – an exemplar case of multi-level multi-party government in which expectations of performance based voting are low. The paper demonstrates the operation of party-attribution based electoral accountability, using data from the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study. However, the findings are asymmetric: accountability operates in the Protestant/unionist bloc but not in the Catholic/nationalist bloc. This asymmetry may be explained by the absence of clear ethno-national ideological distinctions between the unionist parties (hence providing political space for performance based accountability to operate) but the continued relevance in the nationalist bloc of ethno-national difference (which limits the scope for performance politics). The implications of the findings for our understanding of the role of party-specific responsibility attribution in performance based models of voting, and for our evaluation of the quality of democracy in post-conflict consociational polities, are discussed.

The 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election

The 2003 Northern Ireland assembly election was greeted with a general mood of pessimism. The victory of the two most diametrically opposed parties in the Unionist and Nationalist camps, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin, was not supposed to augur well for the peace process and the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. But the opposite happened. The complete disarmament of the IRA in July 2005 paved the way for the signing of the Saint Andrew's Agreement of October 2006. New elections in March 2007 confirmed that the moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) were relegated to the sidelines. From May 2007 onwards, the bewildered Northern Irish could witness surreal scenes with Rev. Ian Paisley, an implacable opponent to republicanism for over 30 years, laughing out loud with Martin McGuinness, the former IRA chief of staff. Then Ian Paisley had to vacate his place as First Minister to his Party’s deputy leader, Peter Robinson. The odd Sinn Féin/DUP coalition had to run current affairs. The incomplete abolition of the 11+ examination conducted by the Sinn Féin ministers has left pupils and their parents in a state of great confusion. In January 2010, the Robinson couple was engulfed in a moral and financial scandal which cost Peter his seat in the May Westminster election. In December 2010/January 2011, the ruling coalition had to face the disaster of thousands of families deprived of water due to a particularly harsh winter. The 2011 Assembly election gives us an opportunity to assess the work of this unforeseen experiment and to ponder the future of Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2011

Following the first full term of regional government in the province since 1972, the Northern Ireland Assembly election held on 5 May 2011 saw the continuation of several trends. Foremost, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin bolstered further their positions as leaders of their respective communities, with the Social Democratic and Labour Party and Ulster Unionist Party losing yet more ground. Building on their decision to enter power-sharing government together in 2007, the two largest parties framed themselves as the progressive choice for voters. As this was the first Assembly election since St Andrews (2006), much of the campaign dialogue centred on the prospect of a Sinn Féin First Minister, a concern highlighted by both unionist parties. The campaign also focused on ‘normal’ socio-economic political issues and possible institutional reform. The absence of inter-party conflict led to the campaign being perceived as the most mundane in living memory, with fears of a record low turnout realised.

Consociationalism and its critics: Evidence from the historic Northern Ireland Assembly election 2007

Critics of consociational power-sharing institutional arrangements in deeply divided societies argue that such arrangements solidify the underlying conflict cleavage and render it all-important for party competition and voter behaviour. I find evidence to the contrary in the case of voter behaviour at the historic 2007 Assembly election in Northern Ireland. At least in the unionist bloc, I find the effective disappearance of the ethno-national conflict cleavage as a determinant of voter choice. This suggests that consociational arrangements have led to both inclusion and moderation, rather than polarisation and ‘ethnic outbidding’.

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2007

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election held on 7 March 2007 was significant for a number of reasons. Firstly, despite the widespread view that the campaign was one of the most low‐key in recent memory, the election was hugely important as it signalled a real possibility of delivering restored devolution as the culmination of five years of government initiatives and inter‐party talks. Second, the DUP and Sinn Féin further cemented their position as the leading parties of their respective communities with 36 and 28 Assembly seats respectively. Third, the two ‘moderate’ parties fared badly: the UUP’s share of Assembly seats plummeted from 24 to 18 – 18 behind the DUP and the SDLP won just 16 seats, qualifying for only one executive seat. Fourth, the presence of dissidents in opposition to the respective positions of the DUP and Sinn Féin failed to make an impact. Overall, the election created the conditions for a new political landscape in Northern Ireland, leading to the formation of a four‐party power sharing executive. Almost five years since the suspension of the institutions in October 2002 the third power sharing government in the history of Northern Ireland was agreed in April and took effect on 8 May 2007.

Alternative Ulster? Political Parties and the Non-Constitutional Policy Space in Northern Ireland

This article uses data from a survey of the candidates in the 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election to measure the policy positions of the Northern Irish political parties on scales that are the usual measurements of party policy in Western Europe, such as on economic and social issues, the European Union, morality issues, environmental issues and minority groups. These data were then used to test whether the Northern Ireland party system was conducive to integration or consociationalism, which is the current debate on conflict resolution in Northern Ireland. It argues that this debate has been under-theorised and that empirical data can be used to test the likelihood of either scenario. It concludes that, in most aspects, the Northern Ireland party system tends towards the consociational scenario but there are, nevertheless, aspects which suggest that an integrationist scenario could be produced in the long term.

Suspended Vote: The 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

Suspended Vote: The 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

The northern ireland assembly election 2003

The Northern Ireland 1998 Act made the provision for elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly every four years. The election was due in 2003 because the assembly had a ‘shadow’ year which would n...

The virtual election: the 2003 Northern Ireland assembly election

The paper sets the context for the November 2003 election, reports its results and discusses the consequences of the electoral outcomes. It notes that the election did not take place within an atmosphere that was conducive to the resolution of the outstanding difficulties, notably over the decommissioning issue, and that the advance of the DUP and Sinn Fein has frustrated the prospect of an early restoration of devolution. The paper also looks at the review of the Agreement, which began in February 2004 and concludes that direct rule is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

The 1998 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

The result of the assembly election in Northern Ireland in June 1998 was a victory for those who support the assembly, but it was not such a triumph for David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party. I will examine both the Unionist vote and the Nationalist vote and the consequences.

Single transferable media bewilderment: Media presentation of Northern Ireland assembly election results

Chris Game reviews the media's unsatisfactory presentation of the New Northern Ireland Assembly STV election results in June 1998.

Perceptions of Group Identity and Recent Political Behavior in Northern Ireland

Societal cleavages based on cultural, ethnic, or tribal divisions are, it can be argued, qualitatively different from those based on other factors (e.g., economic ideology). In this context, can be conceptualized as a set of ascribed and acquired characteristics which derive principally from an individual's birth and upbringing. While physical appearance may be relevant, ethnicity is composed primarily of psychological elements which can not be shed or significantly changed, even if an individual wishes to do so, as easily as can purely acquired characteristics such as economic ideology (e.g., capitalism, socialism, communism). In other words, an individual is forever stigmatized by his group of origin and, in those societies with politically relevant ethnic divisions, the switching of political identities is a very rare occurrence. In this article, the principal psychological elements related to the political cleavage between Northern Irish Protestants and Catholics are briefly reviewed. Second, the main political manifestations of this cleavage since the 1960s are summarized, especially the behavior of politicians and voters in the October 1982 Northern Ireland Assembly election.

The Northern Ireland assembly election of 1982

Interdisciplinary energy research is essential. It advances our understanding of potential transitions from high to low carbon energy systems. However, it is easier to propose than deliver. It requires translation into a simpler language, to aid communication, but not at the expense of the conceptual language that drives our understanding of complex energy systems. We combine legal, political science, and policy studies to show how to balance the need to communicate accessibly and recognise legal and policymaking complexity. We begin with a statement so accepted in legal studies that it has become a truism: the law in the books is not the same as the law in action. The allocation of legal competences is only one influence on policymaking in a complex system. We describe three key ways to conceptualise this relationship between law, policy, and energy systems, focusing on the: (1) ‘on paper’ legal separation of powers between different governments, (2) interaction between law and policy in practice, including blurry boundaries between formal responsibility and informal influence, and (3) role of law as one of many contributors to policymaking. We use these approaches to explain the implications of Brexit for UK energy policy.

STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN BEHAVIOUR FOR ELECTORS AND PARTIES: THE NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTION OF 1973

ABSTRACTThe article attempts to show how the application of a “rational choice” model of electoral decision making to the 1973 Northern Ireland Assembly Election campaign points to some need for a reorientation of this approach, although there is no basic reason why the model cannot be made to work in a seemingly “irrational” situation. Aspects of strategic behaviour other than simple ideological manoeuvring are discussed and related to the campaign itself. These include strategic use of information and resources. Finally the actual vote transfers are used to test the proposition that some degree of rationality did exist in voter choice at the election.