Northern High-latitude Regions Research Articles

Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C<sub>CH4</sub> atmospheric signals

Abstract. Recent efforts have brought together bottom-up quantification approaches (inventories and process-based models) and top-down approaches using regional observations of methane atmospheric concentrations through inverse modelling to better estimate the northern high-latitude methane sources. Nevertheless, for both approaches, the relatively small number of available observations in northern high-latitude regions leaves gaps in our understanding of the drivers and distributions of the different types of regional methane sources. Observations of methane isotope ratios, performed with instruments that are becoming increasingly affordable and accurate, could bring new insights on the contributions of methane sources and sinks. Here, we present the source signal that could be observed from methane isotopic 13CH4 measurements if high-resolution observations were available and thus what requirements should be fulfilled in future instrument deployments in terms of accuracy in order to constrain different emission categories. This theoretical study uses the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE driven by different scenarios of isotopic signatures for each regional methane source mix. It is found that if the current network of methane monitoring sites were equipped with instruments measuring the isotopic signal continuously, only sites that are significantly influenced by emission sources could differentiate regional emissions with a reasonable level of confidence. For example, wetland emissions require daily accuracies lower than 0.2 ‰ for most of the sites. Detecting East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) emissions requires accuracies lower than 0.05 ‰ at coastal Russian sites (even lower for other sites). Freshwater emissions would be detectable with an uncertainty lower than 0.1 ‰ for most continental sites. Except Yakutsk, Siberian sites require stringent uncertainty (lower than 0.05 ‰) to detect anthropogenic emissions from oil and gas or coal production. Remote sites such as Zeppelin, Summit, or Alert require a daily uncertainty below 0.05 ‰ to detect any regional sources. These limits vary with the hypothesis on isotopic signatures assigned to the different sources.

Winter CO2 emission and its production rate in cold temperate soils of northern Japan: 222Rn as a proxy for the validation of CO2 diffusivity

In the context of a changing seasonal snow-covered period and extent in northern high latitude regions, winter CO2 emissions are vulnerable to drastic climate change, prompting rigorous evaluation of regional carbon budgets. The significance of winter CO2 contributions to the atmosphere in these regions has likewise been recognized. In this study, concentrations of CO2 and 222Rn were observed in the snowpack and underlying cold temperate soils of northern Japan during two winter seasons. Winter CO2 emissions, estimated alternately by snow density, 222Rn tracer (under steady and non-steady states), and chamber, were 56 ± 2, 42 ± 6, 44 ± 15, and 34 ± 3 gCO2-C/m2/season, respectively, suggesting that contribution from average winter CO2 emission corresponds to 25% (range: 19–33%) of annual emission. Winter CO2 emission is highly regulated by soil temperature at 5 cm, depending on snow depth. Winter CO2 emission transport is not suppressed through the snowpack to the atmosphere; rather it is stimulated when seasonal snow depth is over the 40-cm threshold in the soils. The higher soil CO2 production of 0.11 ± 0.02 gCO2-C/m3/h estimated by 222Rn transfer velocity reflects vigorous microbial activity in soils underlying winter snowpack. Therefore, 222Rn is an important proxy for the estimation of winter CO2 emission and diffusivity in snowpack, and of CO2 production rate and transfer velocity in the seasonal, snow-covered.

Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints

Abstract. Recent research on emergent constraints (ECs) has delivered promising results in narrowing down uncertainty in climate predictions. The method utilizes a measurable variable (predictor) from the recent historical past to obtain a constrained estimate of change in an entity of interest (predictand) at a potential future CO2 concentration (forcing) from multi-model projections. This procedure first critically depends on an accurate estimation of the predictor from observations and models and second on a robust relationship between inter-model variations in the predictor–predictand space. Here, we investigate issues related to these two themes in a carbon cycle case study using observed vegetation greening sensitivity to CO2 forcing as a predictor of change in photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) for a doubling of preindustrial CO2 concentration. Greening sensitivity is defined as changes in the annual maximum of green leaf area index (LAImax) per unit CO2 forcing realized through its radiative and fertilization effects. We first address the question of how to realistically characterize the predictor of a large area (e.g., greening sensitivity in the northern high-latitude region) from pixel-level data. This requires an investigation into uncertainties in the observational data source and an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in the predictor in both the data and model simulations. Second, the predictor–predictand relationship across the model ensemble depends on a strong coupling between the two variables, i.e., simultaneous changes in GPP and LAImax. This coupling depends in a complex manner on the magnitude (level), time rate of application (scenarios), and effects (radiative and/or fertilization) of CO2 forcing. We investigate how each one of these three aspects of forcing can affect the EC estimate of the predictand (ΔGPP). Our results show that uncertainties in the EC method primarily originate from a lack of predictor comparability between observations and models, the observational data source, and temporal variability of the predictor. The disagreement between models on the mechanistic behavior of the system under intensifying forcing limits the EC applicability. The discussed limitations and sources of uncertainty in the EC method go beyond carbon cycle research and are generally applicable in Earth system sciences.

Elevation-dependent decline in vegetation greening rate driven by increasing dryness based on three satellite NDVI datasets on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract In northern high-latitude regions, amplified vegetation greening has been observed due to a larger warming rate than the rate at low latitudes. Similarly, on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the warming rate is larger at high elevation than that at low elevation. Our results show that large discrepancies exist in the trends in the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2012, indicating the importance of using three satellite-derived NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and SPOT) in the evaluation of vegetation activity on the TP. Based on three NDVI datasets, during 2000–2012, rising temperature drove the regional vegetation greening across the TP, but the vegetation greening rate contrasted with that of elevation-dependent warming. Here, with simultaneous use of climate observation data, we found that declining water availability with rising elevation may restrict and offset the positive effect of rising temperature on vegetation greening, resulting in the declining rate of vegetation greening as elevation increases on the TP. Our results highlight the significant influence of precipitation on elevation-dependent changes in vegetation activity in rapidly warming mountain ecosystems.

Studying permafrost by integrating satellite and in situ data in the northern high-latitude regions

There is an exceptional opportunity of achieving simultaneous and complementary data from a multitude of geoscience and environmental near-earth orbiting artificial satellites to study phenomena related to the climate change. These satellite missions provide the information about the various phenomena, such as sea level change, ice melting, soil moisture variation, temperature changes and earth surface deformations. In this study, we focus on permafrost thawing and its associated gravity change (in terms of the groundwater storage), and organic material changes using the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) data and other satellite- and ground-based observations. The estimation of permafrost changes requires combining information from various sources, particularly using the gravity field change, surface temperature change, and glacial isostatic adjustment. The most significant factor for a careful monitoring of the permafrost thawing is the fact that this process could be responsible for releasing an additional enormous amount of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere, most importantly to mention carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane that are currently stored in the frozen ground. The results of a preliminary numerical analysis reveal a possible existence of a high correlation between the secular trends of greenhouse gases (CO2), temperature and equivalent water thickness (in permafrost active layer) in the selected regions. Furthermore, according to our estimates based on processing the GRACE data, the groundwater storage attributed due to permafrost thawing increased at the annual rates of 3.4, 3.8, 4.4 and 4.0 cm, respectively, in Siberia, North Alaska and Canada (Yukon and Hudson Bay). Despite a rather preliminary character of our results, these findings indicate that the methodology developed and applied in this study should be further improved by incorporating the in situ permafrost measurements.

Variable effects of climate change on carbon balance in northern ecosystems

Accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere of the planet accelerates climate change, and northern high-latitude regions are warming faster than the planetary average. This accelerated warming of northern regions is associated with multiple climate feedbacks, including those linked to the mobilization of old organic carbon previously sequestered in the frozen ground. This critical climate-feedback mechanism has major uncertainties, and may respond nonlinearly to ongoing warming at high latitudes. This study examines the role of freshwater ecosystems in the subarctic carbon balance, and addresses some sources of nonlinearity in the effect of climate warming on these ecosystems. Specifically, I examine the CO2 and CH4 dynamics in permafrost thaw-related ecosystems, and the associated biogeochemical processes. Our results show that major sources of variation in the dynamics of these two gases are associated with the geomorphological properties of the landscape, the degree of ground warming and seasonal biogeochemical dynamics. Accelerated climate change in northern regions may also intensify the CO2 and CH4 cycles in these regions, and may substantially increase the current CH4 flux from these ecosystems.

Monitoring the Arctic acoustic environments with the International Quiet Ocean Experiment

The northern high-latitude regions, including the Arctic Ocean, are becoming increasingly important as a result of global warming and their growing economic and political interests. Sea ice reduction is facilitating resource exploration, marine transport, and other economic activities in the regions. Warming waters lead to shifts in marine ecosystems and in soundscapes. Exploitation of resources in the Arctic is expected to grow in the coming decades, offering new opportunities for marine and maritime industries. To measure the environmental impact of ocean noise at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, the International Quiet Ocean Experiment (http://iqoe.org/) established in late 2017 a working group on Arctic Acoustic Environments. The first activities of the Working Group are focusing on identifying locations and times of existing and past acoustic studies in the Arctic Ocean, and synthesise the state-of-the-art on sounds, past, present, and future in the Arctic Ocean. WG activities at the Arctic Observing Summit 2018 (Davos, Switzerland) are linking with indigenous communities and other local stakeholders, to address emerging trends in marine transport and Arctic resource exploitation, and to plan for where/when the optimal acoustic surveys could be, and what metrics they should prioritise.

MagPySV: A Python Package for Processing and Denoising Geomagnetic Observatory Data

AbstractMeasurements obtained at ground‐based observatories are crucial to understanding the geomagnetic field and its secular variation (SV). However, current data processing methods rely on piecemeal closed‐source codes or are performed on an ad hoc basis, hampering efforts to reproduce data sets underlying published results. We present MagPySV, an open‐source Python package designed to provide a consistent and automated means of generating high‐resolution SV data sets from hourly means distributed by the Edinburgh World Data Centre. It applies corrections for documented baseline changes, and optionally, data may be excluded using the ap index, which removes effects from documented high solar activity periods such as geomagnetic storms. Robust statistics are used to identify and remove outliers. Developing existing denoising methods, we use principal component analysis of the covariance matrix of residuals between observed SV and that predicted by a global field model to remove a proxy for external field contamination from observations. This method creates a single covariance matrix for all observatories of interest combined and applies the denoising to all locations simultaneously, resulting in cleaner time series of the internally generated SV. In our case studies, we present cleaned data in two geographic regions: monthly first differences are used to investigate geomagnetic jerk morphology in Europe, an area previously well‐studied at lower resolution, and annual differences are investigated for northern high latitude regions, which are often neglected due to their high noise content. MagPySV may be run on the command line or within an interactive Jupyter notebook; two notebooks reproducing the case studies are supplied.

Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions

Abstract. Soils in Arctic and boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, a portion of which may be released as high-latitude soils warm. Some of the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost–climate feedback stems from complex interactions between ecosystem properties and soil thermal dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems fundamentally regulate the response of permafrost to climate change by influencing surface energy partitioning and the thermal properties of soil itself. Here we review how Arctic and boreal ecosystem processes influence thermal dynamics in permafrost soil and how these linkages may evolve in response to climate change. While many of the ecosystem characteristics and processes affecting soil thermal dynamics have been examined individually (e.g., vegetation, soil moisture, and soil structure), interactions among these processes are less understood. Changes in ecosystem type and vegetation characteristics will alter spatial patterns of interactions between climate and permafrost. In addition to shrub expansion, other vegetation responses to changes in climate and rapidly changing disturbance regimes will affect ecosystem surface energy partitioning in ways that are important for permafrost. Lastly, changes in vegetation and ecosystem distribution will lead to regional and global biophysical and biogeochemical climate feedbacks that may compound or offset local impacts on permafrost soils. Consequently, accurate prediction of the permafrost carbon climate feedback will require detailed understanding of changes in terrestrial ecosystem distribution and function, which depend on the net effects of multiple feedback processes operating across scales in space and time.

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska.

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio-environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high-latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time-series analysis of moderate-and high-resolution imagery was used to characterize land- and water-surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land-surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak-growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000±8700km2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface-water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high-latitude regions.

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests.

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree-ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in theNDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Abstract. Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

Abstract. Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 ∘C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

This study conducted an updated time of emergence (ToE) analysis of regional precipitation changes over land regions across the globe using multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). ToEs were estimated for 14 selected hotspots over two seasons of April to September (AS) and October to March (OM) from three RCP scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Results from the RCP8.5 scenario indicate that ToEs would occur before 2040 over seven hotspots including three northern high-latitude regions (OM wettening), East Africa (OM wettening), South Asia (AS wettening), East Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying). The Mediterranean (both OM and AS drying) is expected to experience ToEs in the mid-twenty-first century (2040-2080). In order to measure possible benefits from taking low-emission scenarios, ToE differences were examined between the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Significant ToE delays from 26 years to longer than 67 years were identified over East Africa (OM wettening), the Mediterranean (both AS and OM drying), South Asia (AS wettening), and South Africa (AS drying). Further, we investigated ToE differences between CMIP3-based and CMIP5-based models using the same number of models for the comparable scenario pairs (SRESA2 vs. RCP8.5, and SRESB1 vs. RCP4.5). Results were largely consistent between two model groups, indicating the robustness of ToE results. Considerable differences in ToEs (larger than 20 years) between two model groups appeared over East Asia and South Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying), which were found due to stronger signals in CMIP5 models. Our results provide useful information on the timing of emerging signals in regional and seasonal hydrological changes, having important implications for associated adaptation and mitigation plans.

The Polar WRF Downscaled Historical and Projected Twenty-First Century Climate for the Coast and Foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research & Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979-2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950-2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006-2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-hour interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

Abstract. Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

Summer solstice marks a seasonal shift in temperature sensitivity of stem growth and nitrogen-use efficiency in cold-limited forests

In boreal forests and alpine treelines, it is debatable how the temperature sensitivity of tree-ring growth should vary with changes in climate over time and the extent to which seasonal stem increments are controlled by leaf physiology. We aim to test the hypothesis that, in cold-limited forests, maximizing stem growth rate around summer solstice is closely related to foliage turnover, which generally results in high sensitivity of stem growth and less sensitivity of nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) to early-season temperatures. Our analysis was based on repeat-census observations of stem radial increment (2008–2013; made with dendrometers) and monthly litterfall (2007–2015) as well as the measurements of tree-ring width series (1960–2015; made with tree-ring cores) in two Tibetan treeline forests. NUE was estimated as the inverse of leaf-litter nitrogen concentration. We further examined a global dataset of tree-ring chronologies (1931–1990) from 139 sites across temperate and boreal coniferous forests in the northern high-latitude region. Weekly stem increments across species and years synchronously peaked around summer solstice, with more than half of annual increment produced in the first 28–35days of the growing season when air and soil temperatures were still low. Monthly stem increments were positively related to previous-month litterfall, and higher litterfall generally resulted in higher NUE. NUE was insensitive or less sensitive to soil temperature in the early growing season. Among years, pre-peak increments were positively correlated with pre-solstice temperatures while post-peak increments varied little. The annual increment was dominated by and coherent with the pre-peak increment and well correlated with the ring-width measurements of monitored trees during 2008–2013. Variations in tree-ring width chronologies from the two Tibetan treelines and the global 139 forest sites mainly reflected the change of early summer temperatures. The findings suggest a day-length control on the linkage between seasonal stem growth and nitrogen cycling in a cold-limited forest ecosystem, and provide the basic for predicting responses of tree-ring growth and NUE to climatic warming.

Ecophysiology. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats.

Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index-the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand-across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges.

The effect of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation on springtime vegetation over the northern high latitude region

The winter Arctic Oscillation (AO), a major source of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, affects winter and the subsequent spring climate over northern high latitude. Such effects are evident even in the 1st eigenmode of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impacts of the winter AO is a dipole pattern between Eurasia and North America; positive (negative) values of the winter AO induce warmer (cooler) and high (low) vegetation activity in the following spring over Eurasia (North America). Regarding the time-lagged response of vegetation, the sea surface temperature (SST) and snow cover contribute to maintaining the large-scale circulation anomaly associated with the AO.

First evidence of bryophyte diaspores in the plumage of transequatorial migrant birds.

Correlations between transequatorial migratory bird routes and bipolar biogeographic disjunctions in bryophytes suggest that disjunctions between northern and southern high latitude regions may result from bird-mediated dispersal; supporting evidence is, however, exclusively circumstantial. Birds disperse plant units (diaspores) internally via ingestion (endozoochory) or externally by the attachment of diaspores to the body (ectozoochory). Endozoochory is known to be the primary means of bird-mediated dispersal for seeds and invertebrates at local, regional, and continental scales. Data supporting the role of bird-mediated endozoochory or ectozoochory in the long distance dispersal of bryophytes remain sparse, however, despite the large number of bryophytes displaying bipolar disjunctions. To determine if transequatorial migrant shorebirds may play a role in the ectozoochory of bryophyte diaspores, we developed a method for screening feathers of wild birds. We provide the first evidence of microscopic bryophyte diaspores, as well as those from non-bryophyte lineages, embedded in the plumage of long distance transequatorial migrant birds captured in their arctic breeding grounds. The number of diaspores recovered suggests that entire migratory populations may be departing their northern breeding grounds laden with potentially viable plant parts and that they could thereby play significant roles in bipolar range expansions of lineages previously ignored in the migrant bird dispersal literature.