Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstructions Research Articles

Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability

Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate model simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent these regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality. Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern North America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy. Our reconstruction shows that a large majority (31 out of 44) of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case

Abstract. The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the ∼ 1809 eruption that is similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous. We test the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) and uncertainties from ice-core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with an approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 and 19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure. While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble-mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could be due to internal climate variability.

Century-scale temperature variability and onset of industrial-era warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

To improve our understanding of climate variability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its sensitivity to external forcings, recent temperature changes need to be placed in a long-term historical context. Here, we present two tree-ring based temperature reconstructions: a 1003-year (1000–2002 CE) annual temperature reconstruction for the northeastern TP (NETP) based on seven series and a 522-year (1489–2010 CE) summer (June–July–August) temperature reconstruction for the southeastern TP (SETP) based on 11 series. Our reconstructions show six centuries of generally warm NETP temperatures (1000–1586 CE), followed by a transition to cooler temperatures (1587–1887 CE for NETP and 1588–1930 CE for SETP). The transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age thus happened in the 1580s in NETP and SETP, which is about 150 years later than in larger-scale (e.g. Asia and the Northern Hemisphere) temperature reconstructions. We found that TP temperature variability, especially in SETP, was influenced by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and that the twentieth century was the warmest on record in NETP and SETP. Our reconstructions and climate model simulations both show industrial-era warming trends, the onset of which happened earlier in NETP (1812 CE) compared to SETP (1887 CE) and other temperature reconstructions for Western China, East Asia, Asia, and the Northern Hemisphere. The early NETP onset of industrial-era warming can likely be explained by NETP’s faster warming rate and by local feedback factors (i.e., ice–snow cover-albedo). Comparisons between climate model simulations and our reconstructions reveal that cooler TP temperatures from 1600 to 1800 CE might be related to land-use and land-cover change.

Time series analysis of Earth's Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions using non-linear tools and statistical tests

This paper presents results concerning the non-linear analysis of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere mean annual land temperature reconstructions for the time period of 713-2004. The non-linear analysis consists of the application of several filtering methods, the estimation of geometrical and dynamical characteristics in the reconstructed phase space, techniques of discrimination between non-linear low-dimensional and linear high-dimensional (stochastic) dynamics and tests for serial dependence and non-linear structure. The results of this study indicate the efficiency of the filtering methods in revealing non-linear structures and correlations in short noisy time series, such as Earth's Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. No low-dimensional chaotic behaviour evidence was found from the analysis.

Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction for the mid-to-late Holocene

The observed late twentieth century warming must be assessed in relation to natural long-term variations of the climatic system. Here, we present a Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction for the mid-to-late Holocene of the past 6000 years, based on a synthesis of existing paleo-temperature proxies that are capable of revealing centennial-scale variability. This includes 56 published temperature records across the NH land areas, with a sampling resolution ranging from 1 to 100 years and a time span of at least 1000 years. The composite plus scale (CPS) method is adopted with spatial weighting to develop the NH temperature reconstruction. Our reconstruction reveals abrupt cold epochs that match well the Bond events during the past 6000 years. The study further reveals two prominent cycles in NH temperature: 1700–2000-year cycle during the mid-to-late Holocene and 1200–1500-year cycle during the past 3500 years. Our reconstruction indicates that the late twentieth century NH temperature and its rate of warming are both unprecedentedly high over the past 5000 years. By comparing our reconstruction with the projected temperature increase scenarios, we find that temperature by the end of the twenty-first century would likely exceed any peaks during the mid-to-late Holocene.

Are Karakoram temperatures out of phase compared to hemispheric trends?

In contrast to a global retreating trend, glaciers in the Karakoram showed stability and/or mass gaining during the past decades. This “Karakoram Anomaly” has been assumed to result from an out-of-phase temperature trend compared to hemispheric scales. However, the short instrumental observations from the Karakoram valley bottoms do not support a quantitative assessment of long-term temperature trends in this high mountain area. Here, we presented a new April–July temperature reconstruction from the Karakoram region in northern Pakistan based on a high elevation (~3600 m a.s.l.) tree-ring chronology covering the past 438 years (AD 1575–2012). The reconstruction passes all statistical calibration and validation tests and represents 49 % of the temperature variance recorded over the 1955–2012 instrumental period. It shows a substantial warming accounting to about 1.12 °C since the mid-twentieth century, and 1.94 °C since the mid-nineteenth century, and agrees well with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. These findings provide evidence that the Karakoram temperatures are in-phase, rather than out-of-phase, compared to hemispheric scales since the AD 1575. The synchronous temperature trends imply that the anomalous glacier behavior reported from the Karakoram may need further explanations beyond basic regional thermal anomaly.

The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method.

Large-scale climate history of the past millennium reconstructed solely from tree-ring data is prone to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency variability. In this paper, we aimed at solving this problem by utilizing a novel method termed “MDVM”, which was a combination of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variance matching techniques. We compiled a set of 211 tree-ring records from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90°N) in an effort to develop a new reconstruction of the annual mean temperature by the MDVM method. Among these dataset, a number of 126 records were screened out to reconstruct temperature variability longer than decadal scale for the period 850–2000 AD. The MDVM reconstruction depicted significant low-frequency variability in the past millennium with evident Medieval Warm Period (MWP) over the interval 950–1150 AD and pronounced Little Ice Age (LIA) cumulating in 1450–1850 AD. In the context of 1150-year reconstruction, the accelerating warming in 20th century was likely unprecedented, and the coldest decades appeared in the 1640s, 1600s and 1580s, whereas the warmest decades occurred in the 1990s, 1940s and 1930s. Additionally, the MDVM reconstruction covaried broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing, and especially showed distinct footprints of multiple volcanic eruptions in the last millennium. Comparisons of our results with previous reconstructions and model simulations showed the efficiency of the MDVM method on capturing low-frequency variability, particularly much colder signals of the LIA relative to the reference period. Our results demonstrated that the MDVM method has advantages in studying large-scale and low-frequency climate signals using pure tree-ring data.

Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response

Abstract. Multiple, linear regression is employed to attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is to asses how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory (LRM) in the model for the temperature response. The model response to a given forcing component is its fingerprint and is different for a zero response time (ZRT) model and one with an LRM response. The fingerprints are used as predictors in the regression scheme to express the response as a linear combination of footprints. For the instrumental period 1880–2010 CE (Common Era) the LRM response model explains 89 % of the total variance and is also favoured by information-theoretic model selection criteria. The anthropogenic footprint is relatively insensitive to LRM scaling in the response and explains almost all global warming after 1970 CE. The solar footprint is weakly enhanced by the LRM response, while the volcanic footprint is reduced by a factor of 2. The natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales has no systematic trend and is dominated by the footprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The 2000–2010 CE hiatus is explained as a natural variation. A corresponding analysis for the last millennium is performed, using a Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is explained as mainly due to volcanic cooling or as a long-memory response to a strong radiative disequilibrium during the Medieval Warm Anomaly, and it is not attributed to the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum.

Holocene summer temperature reconstruction from sedimentary chlorophyll content, with treatment of age uncertainties, Kurupa Lake, Arctic Alaska

Quantitative records of pre-industrial temperature changes are fundamental for understanding long-term natural climate variability. We used visible reflectance spectroscopy to measure chlorophyll content (and its derivatives) in a sediment core from Kurupa Lake, north-central Brooks Range, Alaska, to reconstruct summer temperature and the number of annual non-freezing days over the past 5.7 ka. A calibration-in-time approach was used to convert downcore changes in chlorophyll content to the climate variables, and an ensemble approach was used to integrate age and calibration uncertainties. The strongest correlation ( rmedian = 0.69, pmedian = 0.02, RMSEP = 1.9°C) is for summer (June through September) temperature using the 20th Century Reanalysis Project dataset. The chlorophyll-inferred 3-year-mean summer temperature shows that the warmest century (3.0–2.9 ka BP) was about 3.0°C (90% range of the ensemble members = 2.3–4.0°C) higher and that the coldest century (1.4–1.3 ka BP) was about 5.5°C lower (90% range = −7.6°C to −5.0°C) than during the reference period (AD 1961–1990). Century-to-century temperature changes over the past 5.7 ka at Kurupa Lake have been large (90% range = −2.8°C to 3.1°C shifts in centennial mean), including the shift between the 19th and 20th centuries, which was above the 90th percentile of temperature changes across all representations of the reconstruction. In contrast to most Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, Kurupa Lake shows no overall millennial-scale cooling trend. We suggest that increased summer duration (by 4.3 days during the last 6 ka) along with no long-term increase in sea-ice cover over the adjacent Chukchi Sea counter-balanced the influence of decreased insolation intensity on the aquatic productivity in Kurupa Lake.

Long-Memory Effects in Linear Response Models of Earth’s Temperature and Implications for Future Global Warming

Abstract A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-invariant long-range memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems. The model is parameterized by an effective response strength, the stochastic forcing strength, and the memory exponent. The instrumental global surface temperature record and the deterministic component of the forcing are used to estimate these parameters by means of the maximum-likelihood method. The residual obtained by subtracting the deterministic solution from the observed record is analyzed as a noise process and shown to be consistent with a long-memory time series model and inconsistent with a short-memory model. By decomposing the forcing record in contributions from solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic activity one can estimate the contribution of each to twentieth-century global warming. The LRM model is applied with a reconstruction of the forcing for the last millennium to predict the large-scale features of Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, and the analysis of the residual also clearly favors the LRM model on millennium time scale. The decomposition of the forcing shows that volcanic aerosols give a considerably greater contribution to the cooling during the Little Ice Age than the reduction in solar irradiance associated with the Maunder Minimum in solar activity. The LRM model implies a transient climate response in agreement with IPCC projections, but the stronger response on longer time scales suggests replacing the notion of equilibrium climate sensitivity by a time scale–dependent sensitivity.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

What do SST proxies really tell us? A high-resolution multiproxy (UK′37, TEXH86 and foraminifera δ18O) study in the Gulf of Taranto, central Mediterranean Sea

We present a multiproxy reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (SST) and coastal environmental changes covering the last 600 years on sediments from the Gulf of Taranto, central Mediterranean Sea. The reconstruction is based on UK′37 (alkenones from haptophytes), TEXH86 (membrane lipids of marine crenarchaeota), and δ18O and δ13C of Globigerinoides ruber (white and pink) and of Uvigerina mediterranea. The amplitudes of the temperature signals reconstructed from δ18O of G. ruber (white), TEXH86 and UK′37 exceed the amplitudes observed in other reconstructions of local and Northern Hemisphere temperature. UK′37-based SSTs reflect mainly winter/spring conditions with an additional influence of changing nutrient supplies related to water column mixing and runoff. TEXH86-based temperatures reflect SSTs of the oligotrophic summer season, while influences from near-coastal areas may complicate its interpretation. Co-variation between both lipid-based SST records suggests a common environmental mechanism during the last 600 years. δ18O of G. ruber (white) also reflects summer conditions and is amplified by changes in salinity and nutrient availability, which are caused by variations in the relative influence of the Western Adriatic Current (WAC) and of the Ionian Surface Waters (ISW). The combination of SSTTEXH86 and δ18O of G. ruber (white) shows that the circulation in the Gulf of Taranto underwent significant changes during the last 600 years.

Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions

Abstract. Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to sig- nificant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature varia- tions, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different recon- struction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our recon- struction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi- decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings

Long-term high-resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where few long-term climate records are available. In this paper, we describe a summer (August) temperature reconstruction over the period 1385–2002 based on a tree-ring width chronology of Balfour spruce ( Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana) on the southeastern TP created using the Regional Curve Standardization method. The reconstruction explains 44.7% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1962–2002), and captures temperature variability over a broad region of the TP. Warmer than average Augusts were found during the periods 1446–1494, 1509–1522, 1553–1567, 1797–1812, 1845–1905 and 1918–2002. Cooler than average Augusts occurred from 1385–1416, 1426–1445, 1495–1508, 1523–1552, 1568–1686, 1695–1718, 1725–1796, 1813–1844 and 1906–1917. A warming trend in the 20th century was unprecedented during the past six centuries. The reconstruction closely matched other tree-ring summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, as well as patterns from ice-core δ 18O data, and fluctuated in synchrony with Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions.

Influence of solar variability, CO<sub>2</sub> and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model

Abstract. Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000–1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.106 km2, i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. This study suggests that regional reconstructions of the temperature between 1000 and 1850 AD are likely to show weak signatures of solar, CO2 and orbital forcings compared to internal variability.

Dendroclimatology: extracting climate from trees

AbstractThe scientific discipline called dendrochronology is the study of tree rings and of environmental conditions and events of the past that tree growth can reflect. The beginning of scientific study of tree rings is generally ascribed to an astronomer named Andrew Ellicott Douglass, who in the early 1900s noticed not only variation in tree‐ring width but also that this variability was similar between multiple trees. Dendrochronology subsequently expanded worldwide, and now over 3000 of the 12,000+ publications on dendrochronology can be classified as dendroclimatology. As a subfield of tree‐ring analysis, dendroclimatology estimates climate back in time beyond the start of recorded meteorological measurements. Dendroclimatology starts with site and tree selection and continues with dating, measuring, data quality control, and chronology construction. Tree rings are associated with climate using statistical models that are then evaluated for their full length to reconstruct climate of the past. Most commonly, either precipitation or temperature is reconstructed, and reconstructions are then analyzed for frequency of extreme years, changes in mean conditions, ranges of long‐term variability, and changes in interannual variability. For example, from reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature based on tree rings and other natural archives of climate collected from multiple sites, it appears that current temperature (since ad 1850) exceeds the range of variability reconstructed for ad 1000‐1850. Uncertainties in dendroclimatology exist, including a relatively recent issue called divergence, but dendroclimatology has played, and continues to play, a substantial role in interdisciplinary research on climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate

Climate fluctuations during the past two millennia as recorded in sediments from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

Abstract The climate evolution of the South Shetland Islands during the last c. 2000 years is inferred from the multiproxy analyses of a long (928 cm) sediment core retrieved from Maxwell Bay off King George Island. The vertical sediment flux at the core location is controlled by summer melting processes that cause sediment-laden meltwater plumes to form. These leave a characteristic signature in the sediments of NE Maxwell Bay. We use this signature to distinguish summer and winter-dominated periods. During the Medieval Warm Period, sediments are generally finer which indicates summer-type conditions. In contrast, during the Little Ice Age (LIA) sediments are generally coarser and are indicative of winter-dominated conditions. Comparison with Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic, and global temperature reconstructions reveals that the mean grain-size curve from Maxwell Bay closely resembles the curve of the global temperature reconstruction. We show that the medieval warming occurred earlier in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, which might indicate that the warming was driven by processes occurring in the south. The beginning of the LIA appears to be almost synchronous in both hemispheres. The warming after the LIA closely resembles the Northern Hemisphere record which might indicate this phase of cooling was driven by processes occurring in the north. Although the recent rapid regional warming is clearly visible, the Maxwell Bay record does not show the dominance of summer-type sediments until the 1970s. Continued warming in this area will likely affect the marine ecosystem through meltwater induced turbidity of the surface waters as well as an extension of the vegetation period due to the predicted decrease of sea ice in this area.

2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool

Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years (refs 1, 2). These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or high-elevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern high-latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values from about ad 1000 to ad 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550-1850) were variable, and approximately 0.5 to 1 degrees C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of delta(18)O of sea water-a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator-indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial-millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.

Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. A diatom-based record of sea surface temperatures from El Junco lake, Galapagos, reveals that the most recent half-century is the warmest 50-year period in the past 1,200 years. Through its intimate connection with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation system, climate variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean influences climate across much of the planet. But the history of temperature change in the tropical Pacific Ocean during recent millennia is poorly known: the available annually resolved records1,2 are discontinuous and rarely span more than a few centuries. Longer records at coarser temporal resolution suggest that significant oceanographic changes, observed at multi-year to multi-century resolution, have had important effects on global climate3,4,5. Here we use a diatom record from El Junco Lake, Galapagos, to produce a calibrated, continuous record of sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean at subdecadal resolution, spanning the past 1,200 years. Our reconstruction reveals that the most recent 50 years are the warmest 50-year period within the record. Because our diatom-based sea surface temperature index resembles Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, we suggest that with continued anthropogenic warming, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean may continue to warm.