Time series analysis of Earth's Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions using non-linear tools and statistical tests

Abstract

This paper presents results concerning the non-linear analysis of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere mean annual land temperature reconstructions for the time period of 713-2004. The non-linear analysis consists of the application of several filtering methods, the estimation of geometrical and dynamical characteristics in the reconstructed phase space, techniques of discrimination between non-linear low-dimensional and linear high-dimensional (stochastic) dynamics and tests for serial dependence and non-linear structure. The results of this study indicate the efficiency of the filtering methods in revealing non-linear structures and correlations in short noisy time series, such as Earth's Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. No low-dimensional chaotic behaviour evidence was found from the analysis.