Northern Hemisphere Continents Research Articles

Anomalous Arctic warming linked with severe winter weather in Northern Hemisphere continents

We have extended a recently developed metric that ingests United States station data—the accumulated winter season severity index—to a global indicator based on temperature and snowfall from reanalysis output. The expanded index is analyzed to reveal relationships between Arctic air temperatures/pressures and the probability of severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Here we find a direct and quasilinear relationship between anomalously high Arctic temperatures/pressures and increased severe winter weather, especially in northeastern continental regions downstream of maximum regional Arctic warming. Positive temperature trends in the Arctic are associated with positive trends in severe winter weather across the continents in mid- to late-winter, coinciding with an increase in stratospheric polar vortex disruptions. During the era of rapid Arctic warming, variability has decreased over the Arctic Ocean and Europe, but has increased in Canada, the Northern US and northeast Asia, indicating more pronounced shifts in weather conditions.

Prediction of summer surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere continents by a physically based empirical model

Prediction of summer surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere continents by a physically based empirical model

Ocean Carbon Dioxide Uptake in the Tailpipe of Industrialized Continents

AbstractA simplifying assumption in many studies of ocean carbon uptake is that the atmosphere is well‐mixed, such that zonal variations in its carbon dioxide (CO2) content can be neglected in the calculation of air‐sea fluxes. Here, we examine this assumption at various scales to quantify the errors it introduces. For global annual averages, we find that positive and negative errors effectively cancel, so the use of atmospheric zonal‐average CO2 introduces reassuringly small errors in fluxes. However, for millions of square kilometers of the North Pacific and Atlantic that are downwind of the highly industrialized northern hemisphere continents, these biases average to over 6% of the annual ocean uptake and can cause errors of up to 30% on a given day. This work highlights the need to use a high quality, spatially‐resolved atmospheric CO2 product for process studies and for accurate long‐term average maps of ocean carbon uptake.

Forcing and impact of the Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979–2014

Abstract. The main drivers of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow cover are investigated in the 1979–2014 period. Four observational datasets are used as are two large multi-model ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). A first ensemble uses observed interannually varying SST and SIC conditions for 1979–2014, while a second ensemble is identical except for SIC with a repeated climatological cycle used. SST and external forcing typically explain 10 % to 25 % of the snow cover variance in model simulations, with a dominant forcing from the tropical and North Pacific SST during this period. In terms of the climate influence of the snow cover anomalies, both observations and models show no robust links between the November and April snow cover variability and the atmospheric circulation 1 month later. On the other hand, the first mode of Eurasian snow cover variability in January, with more extended snow over western Eurasia, is found to precede an atmospheric circulation pattern by 1 month, similar to a negative Arctic oscillation (AO). A decomposition of the variability in the model simulations shows that this relationship is mainly due to internal climate variability. Detailed outputs from one of the models indicate that the western Eurasia snow cover anomalies are preceded by a negative AO phase accompanied by a Ural blocking pattern and a stratospheric polar vortex weakening. The link between the AO and the snow cover variability is strongly related to the concomitant role of the stratospheric polar vortex, with the Eurasian snow cover acting as a positive feedback for the AO variability in winter. No robust influence of the SIC variability is found, as the sea ice loss in these simulations only drives an insignificant fraction of the snow cover anomalies, with few agreements among models.

Interannual Variability of the Wintertime Asian–Bering–North American Teleconnection Linked to Eurasian Snow Cover and Maritime Continent Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Recent studies propose that the Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection is a distinct atmospheric pattern that is related to Eurasian and North American winter climate besides the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern, while its origin remains elusive. This study investigates the interannual variability of the ABNA during the past 42 winters (1979–2020) and the associated prior surface boundary forcings. The ABNA explains coherent surface air temperature changes in northern Asia, eastern Siberia–Alaska, and eastern North America, even after removing the impacts of the PNA, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. Surface boundary conditions linked to the ABNA could be traced back to a Eurasian snow cover dipole pattern (ESCDP) and a Maritime Continent sea surface temperature anomaly (MCSST) in November. The ESCDP leads to a displacement of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex via troposphere–stratosphere coupling. The anomalous polar vortex propagates downward in the following winter and generates the tropospheric ABNA pattern. The MCSST induces a diabatic heating anomaly, which is associated with a tropical western Pacific precipitation anomaly (TWPP) in winter. The TWPP excites a poleward Rossby wave train that propagates across the North Pacific and directly strengthens the ABNA. The above physical processes can be well reproduced by a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Based on the ESCDP and MCSST predictors, an empirical model is established and shows a promising prediction skill of the ABNA during the hindcast period. This can provide a useful strategy for seasonal prediction of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Significance Statement Extreme cold events have influenced both Asian and North American continents during the past decades, causing huge socioeconomic impacts. The Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection is found to be responsible for coherent changes of winter climate in these two continents besides the Pacific–North America pattern. Our results indicate that Eurasian snow cover and the Maritime Continent sea surface temperature are important sources of predictability for the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection, and can be used to predict coherent and cross-continent variations of winter surface air temperature. We propose that the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection and these two predictors should be included in operational monitoring and prediction systems, helping to improve the prediction skill of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere continents.

Potential Vorticity Dynamics Explain How Extratropical Oceans and the Arctic Modulate Wintertime Land‐Temperature Variations

AbstractTemperature variations across the continental northern hemisphere at the interdecadal scale are thought to be remotely modulated by oceanic internal climate variability and the Arctic. Nevertheless, further elucidating the dynamics is essential for clarifying ongoing debates. We show that potential vorticity (PV) dynamics provide a concise explanation for these teleconnections. Our findings demonstrate that extratropical oceans and the Arctic can remotely modulate the wintertime continental temperature variations by stimulating PV anomalies, which are constrained by climatological PV gradients and jet streams. A causal explanation includes anomalous temperature and precipitation over oceans and the Arctic inducing local PV anomalies via diabatic heating. Subsequently, meridional and downstream advection distributes the anomalous PV to remote land regions where the climatological PV gradients are strong, that is, involving PV fronts, as well as jet streams; therefore, PV fronts and jet streams jointly indicate land regions that are largely and frequently impacted. However, land can also modulate other regions through the same mechanism when variations over land occur in advance. Clear causality depends on which factor is independent, while interactions among those regions may convolute the causality, thereby causing further debates.

Biodiversity and Distribution of Reticulitermes in the Southeastern USA.

Simple SummaryDescribing global biodiversity involves identifying species and describing their distributions. The subterranean termite genus Reticulitermes represents an important group of wood-destroying organisms; however, little is known about their species-specific distribution across the three northern hemisphere continents where they are endemic. We combined several taxonomic methods to identify the species of over 4000 specimens in the first statewide survey of subterranean termites from Georgia, USA. The area surveyed, 153,900 km2, represents eco-regions typical of most of the southeast and eastern seaboard of the United States. There were three species, R. flavipes, R. virginicus, and R. nelsonae, found throughout Georgia. R. malletei was predominantly collected in the northern Piedmont soil province, while R. hageni, the least encountered species, was not collected from South Georgia. Our findings support the need for a taxonomic revision of the genus Reticulitermes, agreement on an appropriate integrated taxonomic approach for species determination, and should stimulate future research on diverse topics such as biodiversity, monitoring for these structural pests, and identifying their role in forest ecosystems.Reticulitermes subterranean termites are widely distributed ecosystem engineers and structural pests, yet describing their species distribution worldwide or regionally has been hindered by taxonomic uncertainties. Morphological plasticity confounds the use of taxonomic keys, while recent species descriptions and molecular techniques lacking taxonomic support have caused a muddle in interpreting the literature on Reticulitermes species distributions. We employed an integrative taxonomic approach combining behavioral, morphological, and molecular techniques to identify 4371 Reticulitermes samples to species. Five Reticulitermes species were collected from wood-on-ground at 1570 sites covering 153,900 km2 in the state of Georgia, USA. Three species were collected throughout Georgia, with R. flavipes identified from every one of the 159 counties. R. nelsonae was the second most frequently collected species, found in 128 counties, with R. virginicus third with 122. Two species had distributions confined to the northern part of the state. R. malletei was collected from 73 counties, while the least collected species, R. hageni, was found in 16. Results show that the most recently described species (R. nelsonae, 2012) is widely distributed and the second-most frequently encountered termite, representing 23% of all samples. The invasive species R. flavipes represented half of all the samples collected, while R. hageni, the least at less than 1%. A search of GenBank identified a number of accessions mismatched to a species designation resulting in the literature under-reporting the biodiversity of the genus. We, therefore, outline a path to standardize methods for species identification using an integrated taxonomic approach with appropriate barcodes for consistent identification across research teams worldwide. The data also illuminate new opportunities to examine questions related to the ecology, evolution, dispersal, and resource partitioning behaviors of these sympatric species across distinct geographical regions.

CMIP6 model simulation of concurrent continental warming holes in Eurasia and North America since 1990 and their relation to the Indo-Pacific SST warming

Observations during 1990–2014 depict concurrent cooling trends in land surface air temperature (LSAT) over central-eastern Eurasia (CEE) and northwestern North America (NWNA), while significant warming trends are observed in other areas across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This lack of surface warming of the continental CEE and NWNA is termed continental warming holes (CWH) here. The ability of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to reproduce the LSAT trends during 1990–2014 over the continental NH is evaluated, and the evaluation includes all CMIP6 historical simulations from 32 unique models and their multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM). The results show that the performances of the different models vary greatly. GISS-E2–1-G-CC model performs best among the 32 models, considering reproducing the correct sign of the LSAT trends as well as reproducing the trend magnitude. However, the MMEM simulates uniformly significant warming trends in NH and fails to capture the continental warming holes, indicating a role of internal variability in the CWH. The mechanisms of the continental warming holes are further investigated using reanalysis datasets, CMIP6 models and AGCM simulations. GISS-E2–1-G-CC also shows a better simulation ability, including the trends in NH sea level pressure and tropical sea surface temperature than other models. Both reanalysis data and GISS-E2–1-G-CC model show high-pressure trends over mid-high latitudes, which corresponded to enhanced Siberia High and weakened Aleutian Low. These atmospheric circulation changes result in cold advection over the CEE and NWNA regions, offsetting anthropogenic warming and leading to the emergence of the warming holes. Further analysis and AGCM simulations link these atmospheric circulation trends to Indo-Pacific SST warming. In response to the Indo-Pacific SST warming, tropical tropospheric warming leads to the equatorward shift of the mid-latitude jet stream, and subsequently, anomalous easterly and high pressure over mid-high latitudes tend to influence the Siberia High and Aleutian low, resulting in the LSAT cooling over the CEE and NWNA.

Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY

Abstract. Numerical modeling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison are from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We came to the following conclusions. (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in boreal autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, due to the fact that the vernal equinox is fixed on 21 March. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from the classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the classical seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, month-length adjusted values for surface air temperature and precipitation are very similar to the day-length adjusted values, and therefore correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can largely reduce the artificial bias. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in three transient simulations for 6–0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL-CM. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn, while for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the classical calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation.

Understanding Triassic tetrapod community evolution across Pangaea: Contributions from the South American record

The Triassic Period witnessed major macroevolutionary patterns among non-marine faunas including the origin and diversification of many key tetrapod linages that later dominated terrestrial ecosystems during the rest of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. In this context, detailed knowledge of individual Triassic tetrapod fossil assemblages in a precise geochronologic framework is of upmost importance for elucidating similarities and differences in communities across biogeographic boundaries. Although, there is a bias towards data from the modern Northern Hemisphere continents, the importance and relevance of the Southern Hemisphere tetrapod fossil record has been widely recognized, particularly the record of non-mammalian therapsids (cynodonts and dicynodonts), stem turtles, non-archosaurian archosauromorphs, early crocodylomorphs, and early dinosaurs and dinosaur precursors. This volume focused in the southern South American record highlights how this outstanding fossil record, together with its temporal and paleoenvironmental context, impacts on our perception of Triassic non-marine ecosystems across Gondwana and the rest of Pangea.

Cretaceous mammals of India–Stratigraphic distribution, diversity and intercontinental affinities

Extensive research carried out on the Cretaceous deposits of Laurasia has revealed an overwhelming presence of eutherian, metatherian and multituberculate groups of mammals in the Cretaceous ecosystems of Northern Hemisphere continents. In contrast, the relatively poorly documented fossil record of Cretaceous mammals from Gondwanan continents is represented by gondwanatherians, dryolestoids, and a few multituberculates and haramiyidans. Until now, no undoubted eutherian mammals have been reported from the Cretaceous strata of the southern continents except for India. In this context, Indian Cretaceous mammals assume great significance for understanding the origin and evolution of these mammals in Gondwana. Currently, the Cretaceous mammals of India include three groups, viz., eutherians, gondwanatherians, and haramiyidans. These three mammalian groups were recovered primarily from the Upper Cretaceous Deccan infra–and inter–trappean beds of peninsular India exposed near Bacharam, Naskal and Rangapur (Telengana), Upparhatti (Karnataka) and Kisalpuri (Madhya Pradesh) villages. Eutheria is by far the most diverse clade comprising three named genera (Deccanolestes, Sahnitherium, Kharmerungulatum) and one unnamed taxon (Eutheria incertae sedis). The gondwanatherians are known by Bharattherium bonapartei and Sudamericidae gen. et sp. indet. The third mammalian group, a possible haramiyidan, is represented by a solitary species Avashishta bacharamensis. Overall, the Cretaceous mammal fauna of India presents a complex biogeographic history with eutherians of Laurasian affinity, pan–Gondwanan gondwanatherians and a possible late surviving haramiyidan. Numerically abundant and speciose Deccanolestes, identified as an adapisoriculid, has been interpreted to have had originated in northward drifting Indian Plate in the Late Cretaceous and dispersed out of India into Africa and Europe over island arc systems (Oman–Kohistan–Dras) and the Ladakh magmatic arc at or near the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary. A similar dispersal mode has also been visualized for Kharmerungulatum and Eutheria incertae sedis of Laurasian affinities. The close similarity of dental morphology between Madagascan and Indian gondwanatherians attests to the fact that these taxa derived from a common endemic Gondwanan stock had evolved in isolation following the separation of Indo–Madagascar from other Gondwanan continents. Avashishta represents a late Gondwana survivor of a group that had a Pangaean distribution until the Early Cretaceous.

Uptake and Dissemination of Multi-Criteria Decision Support Methods in Civil Engineering—Lessons from the Literature

The SCOPUS and Wed of Science bibliometric databases were searched for papers related to the use of multi-criteria methods in civil engineering related disciplines. The results were analyzed for information on the reported geographical distribution of usage, the methods used, the application areas with most usage and the software tools used. There was a wide geographical distribution of usage with all northern hemisphere continents well represented. However, of the very many methods available, a small number seemed to dominate usage, with the Analytic Hierarchy Process being the most frequently used. The application areas represented in the documents found was not widely spread and mainly seemed to be focused on issues such as sustainability, environment, risk, safety and to some extent project management, with less usage on other areas. This may be due to individual engineer’s choices in relation to if and how to disseminate the results of their work and to their choice of keywords and titles that determine if their publications are selected in bibliographic searches and thus more visible to a wider readership. A comparison with more topic focused searches, relating to Bridge Design, Earthquake Engineering, Cladding, Sewage Treatment, Foundation design, Truss design, Water Supply, Building Energy, Route selection and Transport mode showed very different results. Analysis of the papers in this area indicated that the full range of supporting software available for multi-criteria decision analysis (many listed in this paper) may not be fully appreciated by potential users.

Coupled climate-ice sheet modelling of MIS-13 reveals a sensitive Cordilleran Ice Sheet

Previous modelling efforts have investigated climate responses to different Milankovitch forcing during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13. During this time the climate has been highly variable at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ~240 ppm. As yet, ice sheet-climate feedbacks were missing in previous studies. Therefore we use the state-of-the-art coupled climate-ice sheet model, AWI-ESM-1.2, to investigate the MIS-13 climate and corresponding Northern Hemisphere ice sheet (NHIS) evolution by performing simulations under three different astronomical configurations representing 495, 506 and 517 kyr BP. The simulated excess ice compared to present-day is mainly over the Cordillera, Arctic islands and Tibet. The global mean surface air temperature for the MIS-13 experiments have the same magnitude. At 506 kyr BP with boreal summer at perihelion, the Northern Hemisphere continents are warmer during summer than the other experiments, which could potentially inhibit the development of the ice sheets. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet is found to be especially sensitive to orbital (precession) forcing, at an intermediate CO2 level. This is probably due to its high elevation where the freezing point could be easily maintained. The other ice sheets over northeast America and Eurasia, however, are absent in our simulations. We propose that the alpine-based Cordilleran Ice Sheet is more sensitive and easier to build up than other NHISs in response to the astronomical controlled summer insolation. Dynamic surges are simulated for the Cordilleran Ice Sheet under fixed low orbital forcing. These surges due to internal ice sheet-climate feedbacks could potentially be the mechanism for the millennial scale H-like events.

Terrestrial Evaporation and Global Climate: Lessons from Northland, a Planet with a Hemispheric Continent

AbstractMotivated by the hemispheric asymmetry of land distribution on Earth, we explore the climate of Northland, a highly idealized planet with a Northern Hemisphere continent and a Southern Hemisphere ocean. The climate of Northland can be separated into four distinct regions: the Southern Hemisphere ocean, the seasonally wet tropics, the midlatitude desert, and the Great Northern Swamp. We evaluate how modifying land surface properties on Northland drives changes in temperatures, precipitation patterns, the global energy budget, and atmospheric dynamics. We observe a surprising response to changes in land surface evaporation, where suppressing terrestrial evaporation in Northland cools both land and ocean. In previous studies, suppressing terrestrial evaporation has been found to lead to local warming by reducing latent cooling of the land surface. However, reduced evaporation can also decrease atmospheric water vapor, reducing the strength of the greenhouse effect and leading to large-scale cooling. We use a set of idealized climate model simulations to show that suppressing terrestrial evaporation over Northern Hemisphere continents of varying size can lead to either warming or cooling of the land surface, depending on which of these competing effects dominates. We find that a combination of total land area and contiguous continent size controls the balance between local warming from reduced latent heat flux and large-scale cooling from reduced atmospheric water vapor. Finally, we demonstrate how terrestrial heat capacity, albedo, and evaporation all modulate the location of the ITCZ both over the continent and over the ocean.

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the <i>lig127k</i> simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations

Abstract. We document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, the Global Coupled 3.1 configuration of the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) and the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1), which are contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The simulation of aerosols in the present-day period of the historical ensemble of these models is evaluated against a range of observations. Updates to the aerosol microphysics scheme are documented as well as differences in the aerosol representation between the physical and Earth system configurations. The additional Earth system interactions included in UKESM1 lead to differences in the emissions of natural aerosol sources such as dimethyl sulfide, mineral dust and organic aerosol and subsequent evolution of these species in the model. UKESM1 also includes a stratospheric–tropospheric chemistry scheme which is fully coupled to the aerosol scheme, while GC3.1 employs a simplified aerosol chemistry mechanism driven by prescribed monthly climatologies of the relevant oxidants. Overall, the simulated speciated aerosol mass concentrations compare reasonably well with observations. Both models capture the negative trend in sulfate aerosol concentrations over Europe and the eastern United States of America (US) although the models tend to underestimate sulfate concentrations in both regions. Interactive emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds in UKESM1 lead to an improved agreement of organic aerosol over the US. Simulated dust burdens are similar in both models despite a 2-fold difference in dust emissions. Aerosol optical depth is biased low in dust source and outflow regions but performs well in other regions compared to a number of satellite and ground-based retrievals of aerosol optical depth. Simulated aerosol number concentrations are generally within a factor of 2 of the observations, with both models tending to overestimate number concentrations over remote ocean regions, apart from at high latitudes, and underestimate over Northern Hemisphere continents. Finally, a new primary marine organic aerosol source is implemented in UKESM1 for the first time. The impact of this new aerosol source is evaluated. Over the pristine Southern Ocean, it is found to improve the seasonal cycle of organic aerosol mass and cloud droplet number concentrations relative to GC3.1 although underestimations in cloud droplet number concentrations remain. This paper provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models and will facilitate understanding in the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted as part of CMIP6 and beyond.

A Comparison of the CMIP6midHoloceneandlig127kSimulations in CESM2

AbstractResults are presented and compared for the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulations of the middle Holocene (MH, 6 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 127 ka). These simulations are designated as Tier 1 experiments (midHoloceneandlig127k) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). They use the low‐top, standard 1° version of CESM2 contributing to CMIP6 DECK, historical, and future projection simulations, and to other modeling intercomparison projects. ThemidHoloceneandlig127kprovide the opportunity to examine the responses in CESM2 to the orbitally induced changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation. The insolation anomalies result in summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents, reduced Arctic summer minimum sea ice, and increased areal extent of the North African monsoon. The Arctic remains warm throughout the year. These changes are greater in thelig127kthanmidHolocenesimulation. Other notable changes are reduction of the Niño3.4 variability and Drake Passage transport and a small increase in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from thepiControltomidHolocenetolig127ksimulation. Comparisons to paleo‐data and to simulations from previous model versions are discussed. Possible reasons for mismatches with the paleo‐observations are proposed, including missing processes in CESM2, simplifications in the CMIP6 protocols for these experiments, and dating and calibration uncertainties in the data reconstructions.

Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since September 2012?

One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 yr ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.

Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios

To better understand the climate response under stabilized, overshoot, and transient global warming, four types of ensemble experiments on 1.5 °C/2 °C global warming scenarios (i.e., stabilized 1.5 °C, 1.5 °C overshoot, stabilized 2 °C, and transient 2 °C) are elaborately designed using the Nanjing University Information Science and Technology Earth System Model (NESM). Compared with the modern climate (1985–2014), the projected surface air temperature (SAT) change is characterized by a robust ‘Northern Hemisphere (NH)-warmer than-Southern Hemisphere (SH)’ and ‘land-warmer than-ocean’ patterns. The projected precipitation change exhibits ‘NH-wetter than-SH’ pattern in the tropics. Although the response of SAT and precipitation climatology show similar pattern between stabilized and overshoot scenarios, some significant differences are still found. The projected change in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation (NHLMP) is 30% larger in the transient 2 °C experiment compared with that in the stabilized 2 °C experiment. The more vigorous NHLMP in the transient global warming scenario is mainly due to the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast and interhemispheric temperature difference. The enlarged land–sea thermal contrast increases the surface pressure gradient between the NH continents and its adjacent oceans, thus enhancing the NH monsoon circulation and moisture convergence. The enhanced interhemispheric temperature difference shifts the Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone northward, leading to the enhanced moisture convergence and the shifts of tropical rain band over the NH monsoon region. This result highlights that climate responses may depend on different warming trajectories and, which could facilitate the strategic planning of governments.

A dynamic link between high-intensity precipitation events in southwestern North America and Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum

Both hydroclimate proxies and modeling studies alike present compelling evidence for abundant precipitation in southwestern North America and Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, model simulations exhibit an apparent disagreement between changes in precipitation and the orientation of the midlatitude jet streams relative to modern. This is surprising, as it is well known from modern observations that the jet streams and storm tracks closely follow one another in the time mean. The present study shows that a substantial fraction (between 35 and 50%) of the precipitation along the western seaboards of the Northern Hemisphere continents at the LGM is due to short lived high-intensity events, rather than a permanent rearrangement of the circulation. Moreover, these precipitation events are shown to be dynamically linked by a wavenumber-5 stationary wave packet that is trapped in a midlatitude waveguide. When the wave energy is concentrated in the eastern North Pacific, an atmospheric river is excited that makes landfall along the North American west coast. Days later, when the wave packet has reached Europe, the North Atlantic jet stream assumes a zonally oriented state that brings abundant precipitation to the western Mediterranean sector. Understanding the dynamics of this teleconnection pattern is not only key for interpreting proxy-data signals in past climates, but may also be important for improving predictions of storm track dynamics and water resources availability in the face of climate variability and change.