Northern French Research Articles

Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences

This article analyzes recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps and compares these trends to changes in the occurrence of the atmospheric influences generating extremes. We consider a high-resolution precipitation dataset of 1 × 1 km2 for the period 1958–2017. A robust method of trend estimation in extreme precipitation is considered, based on nonstationary extreme value distribution and a homogeneous neighborhood approach. The results show contrasting trends in extreme precipitation depending on the season. In autumn, most of Southern France shows significant increasing trends, with increase in the 20-year return level between 1958 and 2017 as large as its average value over the period, while the Northern French Alps and the Swiss Valais show decreasing extremes. In winter, significant increasing extremes are found in the valleys and medium mountain areas surrounding the Northern French Alps, while the inner French Alps, the Swiss Valais and the Aosta Valley show significant decreasing trends. In the other seasons, the significant trends are mostly negative in the Mediterranean area. Comparing these trends to changes in the occurrence of the atmospheric influences generating extremes shows that part of the significant changes in extremes can be explained by changes in the dominant influences, in particular in the Mediterranean influenced region that shows the most organized trends. In particular, the strong positive trends in extreme precipitation in autumn in Southern France are concomitant with an increase in Mediterranean influence generating extremes.

Linking Large‐Scale Circulation Descriptors to Precipitation Variability in the Northern French Alps

AbstractThis work analyses the link between Western Europe large‐scale circulation and precipitation variability in the Northern French Alps from 1950 to 2017. We consider simple descriptors characterizing the daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields. They are the maximum pressure difference (MPD)—representing the range of geopotential heights over Western Europe, and the singularity—representing the mean distance between a geopotential shape and its closest analogs, that is, the way this geopotential shape is reproduced in climatology. We show that the MPD and the singularity of geopotential shapes explain a significant part of precipitation variability in the Isère River catchment () from 10 days to 10 years, especially in winter (correlations of 0.7). These simple descriptors ‐ that are easy to implement—provide as much information as weather pattern classification and much better performance than North Atlantic Oscillation to explain precipitation variability over a medium size mountainous catchment.

Characterizing large‐scale circulations driving extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps

AbstractExtreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps are mainly associated with large‐scale circulations (LSCs) bringing moist air from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea—two atmospheric influences that are very frequent in the climatology. In this work, we investigate what characterizes the Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations driving extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps in comparison to ‘random’ Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations. We focus on extreme 3‐day precipitation over two medium size neighbouring catchments from 1950 to 2017. Atlantic and Mediterranean circulations are identified using an existing weather pattern classification established for Southern France. Every single LSC is characterized using three atmospheric descriptors based on analogy in geopotential shapes at 500 hPa over Western Europe that were introduced in previous works. They are (a) the celerity, characterizing the stationary nature of a geopotential shape, and (b) the singularity and relative singularity, characterizing the resemblance of a geopotential shape to its analogs, in other words the way this geopotential shape is closely reproduced in the climatology. We add to these analogy‐based descriptors a new (non‐analogy) descriptor accounting for the strength of the low and high‐pressure systems. We show that Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations driving extreme 3‐day precipitation in the Northern French Alps are the Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations featuring the strongest centres of action as well as the most stationary and the most reproducible geopotential shapes—characteristics that are rare for both atmospheric influences. In the Atlantic case, these characteristics appear to be even more pronounced and rare with regard to the whole climatology, pointing LSC as an important driver of extreme precipitation. In the Mediterranean case, these characteristics appear to be more random with regard to the whole climatology, pointing a more balanced contribution between specific LSC and humidity in driving extreme precipitation.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools in a northern French city: a retrospective serological cohort study in an area of high transmission, France, January to April 2020.

BackgroundChildren’s role in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology remains unclear. We investigated an initially unnoticed SARS-CoV-2 outbreak linked to schools in northern France, beginning as early as mid-January 2020.AimsThis retrospective observational study documents the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, linked to an affected high school (n = 664 participants) and primary schools (n = 1,340 study participants), in the context of unsuspected SARS-CoV-2 circulation and limited control measures.MethodsBetween 30 March and 30 April 2020, all school staff, as well as pupils and their parents and relatives were invited for SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing and to complete a questionnaire covering symptom history since 13 January 2020.ResultsIn the high school, infection attack rates were 38.1% (91/239), 43.4% (23/53), and 59.3% (16/27), in pupils, teachers, and non-teaching staff respectively vs 10.1% (23/228) and 12.0% (14/117) in the pupils’ parents and relatives (p < 0.001). Among the six primary schools, three children attending separate schools at the outbreak start, while symptomatic, might have introduced SARS-CoV-2 there, but symptomatic secondary cases related to them could not be definitely identified. In the primary schools overall, antibody prevalence in pupils sharing classes with symptomatic cases was higher than in pupils from other classes: 15/65 (23.1%) vs 30/445 (6.7%) (p < 0.001). Among 46 SARS-CoV-2 seropositive pupils < 12 years old, 20 were asymptomatic. Whether past HKU1 and OC43 seasonal coronavirus infection protected against SARS-CoV-2 infection in 6–11 year olds could not be inferred.ConclusionsViral circulation can occur in high and primary schools so keeping them open requires consideration of appropriate control measures and enhanced surveillance.

Judah he-Ḥasid and the Tosafists of Northern France

Recent scholarship has suggested that teachings and practices of the German Pietists permeated Tosafist circles in the Rhineland and elsewhere in Germany. This study demonstrates that there were intellectual and methodological contacts between the Pietists and the Tosafists of northern France as well, in the areas of talmudic studies and Jewish law. Judah he-Ḥasid offered interpretations that were known in the study hall of Isaac (Ri) of Dampierre (d. 1189); passages found in northern French Tosafot parallel other interpretations and derivations associated with Judah; Judah’s main Pietist student commented and critiqued Tosafot to tractate Bava Qamma that were produced in Ri’s study hall; and halakhic rulings and traditions put forward by Judah are cited and followed by thirteenth-century Tosafists in northern France such as Isaac b. Joseph and Perez of Corbeil. All of this suggests that what separated the Pietists and Tosafists even in northern France has to be formulated in a more nuanced fashion.

Effect of under triage on early mortality after major pediatric trauma: a registry-based propensity score matching analysis

BackgroundLittle is known about the effect of under triage on early mortality in trauma in a pediatric population. Our objective is to describe the effect of under triage on 24-h mortality after major pediatric trauma in a regional trauma system.MethodsThis cohort study was conducted from January 2009 to December 2017. Data were obtained from the registry of the Northern French Alps Trauma System. The network guidelines triage pediatric trauma patients according to an algorithm shared with adult patients. Under triage was defined by the number of pediatric trauma patients that required specialized trauma care transported to a non-level I pediatric trauma center on the total number of injured patients with critical resource use. The effect of under triage on 24-h mortality was assessed with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) and a propensity score (Ps) matching analysis.ResultsA total of 1143 pediatric patients were included (mean [SD], age 10 [5] years), mainly after a blunt trauma (1130 [99%]). Of the children, 402 (35%) had an ISS higher than 15 and 547 (48%) required specialized trauma care. Nineteen (1.7%) patients died within 24 h. Under triage rate was 33% based on the need of specialized trauma care. Under triage of children requiring specialized trauma care increased the risk of death in IPTW (risk difference 6.0 [95% CI 1.3–10.7]) and Ps matching analyses (risk difference 3.1 [95% CI 0.8–5.4]).ConclusionsIn a regional inclusive trauma system, under triage increased the risk of early death after pediatric major trauma.

Spare No Scrap. A Piece of Binder’s Waste as Evidence for Institutional Development at the Abbey of Prémontré in the Thirteenth Century

This article analyses the front flyleaf of the cartulary of Tinselve, a manuscript created at the northern French abbey of Premontre in the mid-13th century. While the manuscript proper contains ac...

Accuracy of endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration in HIV-infected patients with thoracic lymphadenopathy in a tuberculosis low-burden area

Endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) is an innovative technique to explore hilar and mediastinal lymphadenopathy. We aimed to assess its diagnostic accuracy in HIV-infected patients in a tuberculosis low-burden area. A retrospective review was performed of all HIV-infected patients with thoracic lymphadenopathy referred for EBUS-TBNA between January 2012 and January 2019 in 3 Northern French Hospitals. A total of 15 patients was included during the study period. Our patients were predominantly male (80%), with a mean age of 50 ± 11 years. Six patients (43%) had a CD4 cells count of less than 200/mm3. Eleven patients (73%) were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and 7 (47%) reached undetectable viral load. Adequate lymphnode sampling was accomplished in all patients. No serious complications were reported. EBUS-TBNA led to a definitive diagnosis in 12 out of 15 patients (80%). It identified 4 neoplasia, 3 atypical mycobacterial diseases, 2 tuberculosis, 1 Castleman disease, 1 sarcoidosis, and 1 professional dustiness. In 3 cases, sampling revealed normal lymphoid tissue. Active surveillance confirmed the suspected diagnosis of HIV adenitis with regression of lymphadenopathy on antiretroviral therapy in 2 cases. In one case of negative sampling, thoracoscopy led to the diagnosis of tuberculosis. In our cohort, accuracy of EBUS-TBNA was 92%. EBUS-TBNA appeared to be a safe and accurate tool in the investigation of mediastinal lymphadenopathy in HIV-infected patients in settings of tuberculosis low-prevalence. It can avoid more invasive procedures such as mediastinoscopy.

Trace metals dispersion from 1000 years of mining activity in the northern French Alps

This paper investigates the long-term dispersal of trace metals and their impact on the environment long after mine closure in the French Alps. Three statistical methods derived from modern mining (Exploratory Data Analysis, fractals and Sediment Quality Index) were applied to geochemical analyses of streambed sediments to produce mineral prospectivity maps. About 5% of the samples have a poor or marginal quality and may have an effect on biota. Positive anomalies are either related to the geological background (lithology, major tectonic contacts) or to ancient mining sites. The local impact of former mining was investigated on a medieval Pb–Ag district (Brandes; Pbmax ~8 000 mg kg−1), a small district mined during the 17th–19th c. (Peisey-Nancroix; Pbmax = 583 mg kg−1), and a major modern Pb–Ag mine (Macôt-La Plagne; Pbmax ~ 3 200 mg kg−1).The mining heritage is still traceable in the northern French Alps. The anomalies observed at local scale are related to the volume of extracted ore rather than to the timing and duration of mining, suggesting that old mining sites still release trace metals over centuries and up to a thousand years. The statistical methods used provide a strong tool for archaeological prospection and environmental studies.

Association of helicopter transportation and improved mortality for patients with major trauma in the northern French Alps trauma system: an observational study based on the TRENAU registry

BackgroundPrompt prehospital triage and transportation are essential in an organised trauma system. The benefits of helicopter transportation on mortality in a physician-staffed pre-hospital trauma system remains unknown. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of helicopter transportation on mortality and prehospital triage.MethodsData collection was based on trauma registry for all consecutive major trauma patients transported by helicopter or ground ambulance in the Northern French Alps Trauma system between 2009 and 2017. The primary endpoint was in-hospital death. We performed multivariate logistic regression to compare death between helicopter and ground ambulance.ResultsOverall, 9458 major trauma patients were included. 37% (n = 3524) were transported by helicopter, and 56% (n = 5253) by ground ambulance. Prehospital time from the first call to the arrival at hospital was longer in the helicopter group compared to the ground ambulance group, respectively median time 95 [72–124] minutes and 85 [63–113] minutes (P < 0.001). Median transport time was similar between groups, 20 min [13–30] for helicopter and 21 min [14–32] for ground ambulance. Using multivariate logistic regression, helicopter was associated with reduced mortality compared to ground ambulance (adjusted OR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53–0.92; P = 0.01) and with reduced undertriage (OR 0.69 95% CI, 0.60–0.80; P < 0.001).ConclusionHelicopter was associated with reduced in-hospital death and undertriage by one third. It did not decrease prehospital and transport times in a system with the same crew using both helicopter or ground ambulance. The mortality and undertriage benefits observed suggest that the helicopter is the proper mode for long-distant transport to a regional trauma centre.

Snow Reliability and Water Availability for Snowmaking in the Ski resorts of the Isère Département (French Alps), Under Current and Future Climate Conditions

This study presents the evolution of the snow reliability in the 24 alpine ski resorts of the Isère département (Northern French Alps, around Grenoble) over the last decades and its projection into the 21st century, taking into account grooming and snowmaking. The water demand for snowmaking is calculated and can be compared with hydrological simulations of water resource availability, under current and future climate conditions. Over the recent period, snowmaking has significantly improved the snow conditions in seasons with a natural snow deficit. For the middle of the 21st century, climate projections indicate that the expected evolution of snowmaking infrastructure by 2025 should make it possible to stabilize the snow reliability in seasons characterized by a deficit of natural snowfall. At a constant equipment rate, the evolution of water demand due to climate change is of the order of +15% on average in Isère between the recent period and the middle of the 21st century. The study shows that the pressure on water resources appears to not be the most critical point for the implementation of snowmaking, at the scale of the catchment basins in which the Isère ski resorts are located.

Gastrointestinal parasitic infestation in the Rock ptarmigan Lagopus muta in the French Alps and French Pyrenees based on long-term sampling (1987-2018).

Data presented in this work represents the first record of parasites from the Alpine and Pyrenean Lagopus muta subspecies, providing valuable information to consider for conservation management. From 1987 to 2018, 207 Rock ptarmigans were collected in the framework of a long-term sanitary monitoring in France. Eight parasites were found in the Alpine Rock ptarmigan, and one in the Pyrenean subspecies. Only two parasites occurred with high prevalence in the Alpine Rock ptarmigan: Capillaria caudinflata (38.9%) and Eimeria sp. (34.7%). Prevalence of the other parasites (Ascaridia compar, Cestodes, Amphimerus sp. and Trichostrongylus tenuis) was lower than 20%. Dispharynx nasuta was found with a prevalence of 52.9% in the Pyrenean Rock ptarmigan. Overall, we found a spatially aggregated distribution of parasites in the northern French Alps, probably due to both favourable climatic conditions for parasite cycle and high host density. Statistical analyses indicated a positive effect of altitude and latitude on C. caudinflata occurrence whereas risk factors for Eimeria sp. were the distance from urban areas and land cover. In addition, the majority of the infested birds came from areas close to ski-pistes, where human disturbance increases the susceptibility to diseases, causing stress to wildlife.

Downstream erosion and deposition dynamics of fine suspended sediments due to dam flushing

Fine sediment dynamics downstream dams is a key issue when dealing with environmental impact of hydraulic flushing. This paper presents an analysis of six field campaigns carried out during dam flushing events (in June 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012) in the Arc- Isère river system in the Northern French Alps. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) and discharges were evaluated using direct measurements or/and 1D hydraulic modelling at up to 14 locations along the 120 kilometres-long river channel. The total suspended sediment flux (SSF) is analysed along the Arc and Isère rivers for each Arc dam flushing event. Uncertainties were quantified based on a propagation method of both measurement and modelling errors. The resulting confidence interval provides elements of discussion on the significance of the sediment mass balance between two consecutive measurement sites. Whereas the discharge time-series of each flushing event is roughly the same, the quantity of fine sediments removed from the reservoirs varied from 10,000 tons in 2007 to 40,000 tons in 2006. Also, a significant erosion is observed in the river system for some events (20,000 tons in 2007) while the SSF barely varied for other events (in 2009 and 2011). This detailed data set allows to identify specific locations in the river network where deposition or erosion occurred. This dynamics is closely related to both the hydrology in the upper Isère River and the morphology of the Arc and Isère rivers, which have been affected by the 2008 and 2010 floods.

The Observatory on LAkes (OLA) database: Sixty years of environmental data accessible to the public

Lakes are essential ecosystems that provide a large number of ecosystem services whose quality is strongly impacted by human pressures. Optimal uses of lakes require adapted management practices which in turn rely on physico-chemical and biological monitoring. Long-term ecological monitoring provides large sets of environmental data. When such data are available, they have to be associated to metadata and to be stored properly to be accessible and useable by the scientific community. We present a data informatics system accessible to anyone who requests it. Maintained online since 2014 (https://si-ola.inrae.fr), it is originated from the Observatory on LAkes (OLA). It contains long-term data from 4 peri-alpine lakes (Lakes Aiguebelette, Annecy, Bourget, Geneva/Léman) and 24 high-altitude lakes of the northern French Alps. We describe the generated long-term data series, the data type, the methodologies and quality control procedures, and the information system where data are made accessible. Data use is allowed under the condition of providing reference to the original source. We show here how such a platform clearly enhances data sharing and scientific collaboration. Various studies referring to these data are regularly published in peer-reviewed journals; providing in fine a better understanding of lakes’ ecosystems functioning under local and global pressures.

Mapping vowel sounds onto phonemic categories in two regional varieties of French: An ERP study

Abstract This study examines ERP correlates of the different processes associating two phones to one vs. two phonemic categories in two regional varieties of French. Two groups of French listeners are compared, respectively exploiting two regional varieties, with a contrast between the mid-low /ϵ/ and the mid-high /e/ for Northern French (NF) but not for Southern French (SF). It is expected that the competition between the two close categories /e/ vs. /ϵ/ in NF could induce an ERP modulation in the processing of/ϵ/compared to a phoneme/a/with no close competitor, serving as control. In contrast, there should be no difference in ERP response in /ϵ/ vs. /a/ in SF, where there is no competition between the close neighbors /e/ and /ϵ/. The participants of the two groups listened to words containing either /ϵ/ or /a/ in a go/no-go semantic categorization task in which the critical /ϵ/ and /a/ words did not require an overt behavioral response. We found a significant difference in the N400 amplitude between the two conditions in the NF but not in the SF variety. The fact that the ERP modulations appear on the N400 component suggests that lexical access is influenced by the regional variety of the speakers.

“Money can’t buy me love”: radical right-wing populism in French romantic comedies of the 2010s

ABSTRACTThis article surveys developments in the French romantic comedy of the 2010s from a cultural studies perspective. Specifically, it considers how the particularities identifiable in the French genre following its emergence in the 1990s and consolidation by the end of the 2000s have evolved during the next decade. It argues that the most striking new trend comprises a more domestically circumscribed orbit for the genre, with notably fewer export successes, paralleled by the increased prominence of nationalistically inflected and/or otherwise broadly retreatist themes, notably in relation to 'globalizing’ conformist (neo-liberal) values. These traits manifest themselves through elements such as explicit celebrations of French culture, especially that of the northern French provinces that are the historical heartland of the right; obsessive representations and validations of heterosexual family structures, including through homophobic elements; a marked accentuation of bromance and other misogynistic elements in the genre; and a parodic if not mocking attitude towards generic and cultural values coded as North American – albeit one typically embedded in layers of ‘self-reflexive’ postmodern irony. I argue that this last tendency, constituting one of the complexities of the hybrid French genre à l’américaine, is useful for interrogating the very concept of radical ideology – and its antithesis, conformity – for their different meanings in diverse geo-cultural contexts.

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land-cover in mountain regions: Evaluation of the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm in the Vicdessos valley, northern Pyrenees, France

Long-term perspectives on climate- and human-induced shifts in plant communities and tree line in mountains are often inferred from fossil pollen records. However, various factors, such as complex patterns of orographic wind fields and abundant insect-pollinated plants in higher altitudes, make pollen-based reconstruction in mountain regions difficult.Over the last decade the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA) - a model-based approach in reconstruction of vegetation – has been successfully applied in various parts of the globe. However, evaluation of its effectiveness in mountain ranges is still limited. The present study assesses the extent to which the LRA approach helps quantify the local changes in vegetation cover at Vicdessos valley in northern French Pyrenees as a case study. In the study area well-dated sediment cores are available from eight bogs and ponds, 6–113 m in radius, located above the current tree line. We first use a simple simulation experiment to evaluate the way how pollen records from “landscape islands” (mountain tops and plateaus) would represent local vegetation and to clarify important factors affecting the LRA-based reconstruction in a mountainous region. This study then uses pollen records from these sites and vegetation and land-cover data both within a 50-km radius around the Vicdessos valley and within a 2-km radius from each site for evaluation of the REVEALS- and LOVE-based reconstruction of the regional and local plant cover, respectively, in the LRA approach. The land-cover data are complied for coniferous trees, broadleaved trees and non-forested areas from the CORINE and historical maps in three time windows: 1960–1970, 1990–2000 and 2000–2013.Major findings are as follows. (1) Accuracy of the regional vegetation estimates affects the reliability of the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation within a 2-km radius; use of the CORINE data as input to the LOVE model improves reliability of the results over the use of the REVEALS-based estimates of regional vegetation. This implies that a systematic selection of pollen data only from sites above the tree line is problematic for estimating regional vegetation, and thus the entire LRA process. (2) Selection of the dispersal models for pollen transport (i.e. the Langrangian Stochastic Model vs. Gaussian Plume Model) does not affect significantly the LRA-based estimates at both the regional and local scales in the study area. (3) The LRA approach improves the pollen-based reconstruction of local vegetation compared to pollen percentage alone in northern Pyrenees. Although further empirical and simulation studies are necessary, our results emphasize the importance of site selection for the LRA-based reconstruction of vegetation in mountain regions.

Pastoralism increased vulnerability of a subalpine catchment to flood hazard through changing soil properties

Soil erosion is strongly linked to both precipitation patterns and land-use. We examine the effects of erosion and its drivers (i.e. human or/and climate) on soil evolution from the study of lacustrine archives in the northern French Alps. Multi-proxy analyses of the Lake Gers sediment sequence combined with the study of soils and rocks of its catchment allowed to reconstruct its evolution over the past 4.6 kyr. This included 14C dating, short-lived radionuclides, geochemistry, loss on ignition, grain-size analyses, as well as plant and mammal DNA analyses. A total of 127 instantaneous deposits were identified among the continuous sedimentation in the lake and 93 were interpreted as flood deposits. Erosion was quantified for the whole catchment considering both the continuous sedimentation and the flood deposit thicknesses.The catchment is mainly formed by andesitic sandstones over which Andosols and Podzols can develop. However, low weathered materials from colluviation constitute the main input to the lake.Four main phases of changes in soil weathering were recorded by increases in K2O/TiO2 ratios, associated with an increase in both erosion and flood-frequency. Two phases were associated with climate cooling in the Western Alps, from 2.65 to 2.5 and from 1.45 to 1.3 cal kyr BP. The two others (1.9–1.75 and 0.9–0.4 cal kyr BP) were triggered with deforestation, with cow grazing during the Roman period, and with grazing of cows, sheep and goats during the Medieval period, amplified by the onset of the Little Ice Age. The increase in erosion and flood frequency after 950 cal yr BP indicates substantial damages to soils of the catchment including increase of their erodibility over the last millennia.

A Romanesque Binding in the J. Paul Getty Museum: Materials, Craft Technology, and Monastic Reform

ABSTRACT An original twelfth-century binding in the collection of the J. Paul Getty Museum in Los Angeles was studied by Christopher Clarkson in 1994. Unusual features caught his attention, particularly its undecorated tanned leather over-cover (‘chemise’) attached to bare boards by sewn-on ‘turn-in’ flaps and envelope pockets of white alum-tawed skin. With Clarkson’s condition report of the binding as its starting point, this new study situates the binding of the Getty’s Life of St Anselm into a wider context of northern French and Flemish Benedictine and Cistercian bindings of the twelfth and thirteenth centuries. This paper highlights the binding practices of reform monastic orders and their ‘spirit of thrift’.

Monitoring black grouse Tetrao tetrix in Isère, northern French Alps: cofactors, population trends and potential biases

Wildlife management benefits from studies that verify or improve the reliability of monitoring protocols. In this study in Isère, France, we tested for potential links between the abundance of black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) in lek–count surveys and cofactors (procedural, geographical and meteorological cofactors) between 1989 and 2016. We also examined the effect of omitting or considering the important cofactors on the long–term population trend that can be inferred from lek–count data. Model selections for data at hand highlighted that the abundance of black grouse was mainly linked to procedural cofactors, such as the number of observers, the time of first observation of a displaying male, the day, and the year of the count. Some additional factors relating to the surface of the census sector, temperature, northing, altitude and wind conditions also appeared depending on the spatial or temporal scale of the analysis. The inclusion of the important cofactors in models modulated the estimates of population trends. The results of the larger dataset highlighted a mean increase of +17 % (+5.3 %; +29 %) of the abundance of black grouse from 1997 to 2001, and a mean increase in population of +47 % (+16 %; +87 %) throughout the study period (1989–2016). We discuss the hypothesis of plausible links between this past increase in the number of black grouse and the ecological impact of the winter storm ‘Vivian’. Findings from our study and the ecological phenomena that were concomitant with the observed population trend provide opportunities to strengthen the monitoring and management of black grouse in the Alps.