North Sea Coastline Research Articles

Design and Insights Gained in a Real-World Laboratory for the Implementation of New Coastal Protection Strategies

Novel strategies in coastal protection are needed to cope with climate change-induced sea level rise. They aim at the sustainable development of coastal areas in light of intensification and land use changes. A promising approach is the design of nature-based solutions (NbS), complementing the safety levels of technical infrastructure. However, NbS lack a widespread and large-scale implementation. To address this deficit, co-design concepts are needed that combine experiences from science and practice. This work presents and discusses the approach of a coast-specific real-world laboratory (RwL) addressing the inclusive design of ecosystem-based coastal protection. Strategies of RwLs are applied for the first time in a coastal context along the North Sea coastline in Germany. We found the concept of RwLs suitable for coastal transdisciplinary research, although adaptions in the spatial reference level or flexibility in location and time of experimentation are necessary. A profound actor analysis is indispensable to specify participatory processes and interaction levels. A criteria-based cooperative selection of RwL sites helps to reveal and solve conflicting interests to achieve trust between science and practice. Addressing site-specific characteristics and practitioners’ needs, our coastal RwL provides a mutual learning space to develop and test NbS to complement technical coastal protection.

Design & assessing the flood risk management paradigm shift: an interdisciplinary study of Vlissingen, the Netherlands

ABSTRACT Mean sea level rise (SLR) could increase up to 2m by 2100, which would see damage caused by coastal flooding in Europe increase from €1.25bn per annum currently to €961bn in just over 80 years. Urban areas situated along the North Sea coastline are particularly vulnerable to extreme sea level rise (a combination of SLR, tide, and storm surges). The main goal of this study is to assess the paradigm shift in flood risk management from reducing probability of the flood event to reducing its consequences in the city of Vlissingen, in the Netherlands. Two spatial adaptation strategies are modeled and compared by using spatial, climatic, and socioeconomic projections for the year 2100: the “Vlissings Model” and the “Spuikom Model.” The Vlissings Model is about increased coastal protection through the heightening of existing grey infrastructure by 3 m, which includes the dike and buildings constructed on top of it. The Spuikom Model is accepting and rerouting overtopping water towards an existing former backshore water basin. The study brings forth an interdisciplinary “Design & Assess” framework that brings together design strategies with flood damage models and cost/benefit analyses to compare the effectiveness of two paradigms in dealing with extreme SLR.

Using machine learning and beach cleanup data to explain litter quantities along the Dutch North Sea coast

Abstract. Coastlines potentially harbor a large part of litter entering the oceans, such as plastic waste. The relative importance of the physical processes that influence the beaching of litter is still relatively unknown. Here, we investigate the beaching of litter by analyzing a data set of litter gathered along the Dutch North Sea coast during extensive beach cleanup efforts between the years 2014 and 2019. This data set is unique in the sense that data are gathered consistently over various years by many volunteers (a total of 14 000) on beaches that are quite similar in substrate (sandy). This makes the data set valuable to identify which environmental variables play an important role in the beaching process and to explore the variability of beach litter concentrations. We investigate this by fitting a random forest machine learning regression model to the observed litter concentrations. We find that tides play an especially important role, where an increasing tidal variability and tidal height leads to less litter found on beaches. Relatively straight and exposed coastlines appear to accumulate more litter. The regression model indicates that transport of litter through the marine environment is also important in explaining beach litter variability. By understanding which processes cause the accumulation of litter on the coast, recommendations can be given for more effective removal of litter from the marine environment, such as organizing beach cleanups during low tides at exposed coastlines. We estimate that 16 500–31 200 kg (95 % confidence interval) of litter is located along the 365 km of Dutch North Sea coastline.

Cetacean strandings along the German North Sea coastline 1604–2017

AbstractThe occurrence of 19 cetacean species along the German North Sea coastline as well as the lower reaches of the major rivers discharging into the German Bight is reviewed for the period 1604–2017 based on records of dead animals, either stranded dead or put to death. The harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) is considered the most abundant and only native species in German coastal and riverine waters. Based on written sources its presence can be traced back to at least 1651, although with statistical data only available from 1990. Finds of further 18 species have been documented: white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), Atlantic white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus), common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), Risso's dolphin (Grampus griseus), long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas), killer whale (Orcinus orca), beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), narwhal (Monodon monoceros), Sowerby's beaked whale (Mesoplodon bidens), northern bottlenose whale (Hyperoodon ampullatus), sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus), minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis), fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus), blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae). This review corrects several false species assignments earlier introduced in literature based on incorrect scientific or ambiguous German vernacular names and recovers lost records of beluga whale, northern bottlenose whale, sperm whale and fin whale.

Rain Erosion Load and Its Effect on Leading-Edge Lifetime and Potential of Erosion-Safe Mode at Wind Turbines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea

Leading-edge erosion at wind turbine blades cause a loss in profit for wind farm owners, in particular offshore. The characterization of the rain erosion environmental load at wind turbine blades is based on the long-term rain rate and wind speed observations at 10-minute resolutions at coastal stations around the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and inland. It is assumed that an IEA Wind 15 MW turbine is installed at each station. The leading-edge lifetime is found to increase from the South to the North along the German and Danish North Sea coastline from 1.4 to 2.8 years. In the Danish and German Baltic Sea, the lifetime in the West is shorter (~2 years) than further East (~3 to 4 years). It is recommended to use a time series of 10 years or longer because shorter time series most likely will cause an overestimation of the lifetime. The loss in profit due to leading-edge erosion can potentially be reduced by ~70% using the erosion-safe mode, i.e., reduce the tip speed during heavy rain events, to reduce blade erosion, aerodynamic loss, repair costs, and downtime during repair. The aerodynamic loss for the 18 stations is on average 0.46% of the annual energy production.

Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European shelf using dynamical downscaling

Changes in ocean properties and circulation lead to a spatially non-uniform pattern of ocean dynamic sea-level change (DSLC). The projections of ocean dynamic sea level presented in the IPCC AR5 were constructed with global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Since CMIP5 GCMs have a relatively coarse resolution and exclude tides and surges it is unclear whether they are suitable for providing DSLC projections in shallow coastal regions such as the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES). One approach to addressing these shortcomings is dynamical downscaling – i.e. using a high-resolution regional model forced with output from GCMs. Here we use the regional shelf seas model AMM7 to show that, depending on the driving CMIP5 GCM, dynamical downscaling can have a large impact on DSLC simulations in the NWES region. For a business-as-usual greenhouse gas concentration scenario, we find that downscaled simulations of twenty-first century DSLC can be up to 15.5 cm smaller than DSLC in the GCM simulations along the North Sea coastline owing to unresolved processes in the GCM. Furthermore, dynamical downscaling affects the simulated time of emergence of sea-level change (SLC) above sea-level variability, and can result in differences in the projected change of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea level of over 0.3 mm/yr. We find that the difference between GCM and downscaled results is of similar magnitude to the uncertainty of CMIP5 ensembles used for previous DSLC projections. Our results support a role for dynamical downscaling in future regional sea-level projections to aid coastal decision makers.

First identification and quantification of detached-tip vortices behind a wind energy converter using fixed-wing unmanned aircraft system

Abstract. In the present study, blade-tip vortices have been experimentally identified in the wake of a commercial wind turbine using the Multi-purpose Airborne Sensor Carrier Mark 3 (MASC Mk 3) unmanned aircraft system (UAS) of the University of Tübingen. By evaluation of the wind components, detached blade-tip vortices were identified in the time series. From these measurements, the circulation and core radius of a pair of detached blade-tip vortices is calculated using the Burnham–Hallock (BH) wake vortex model. The presented data were captured under a dominating marine stratification about 2km from the North Sea coastline with northern wind direction. The measured vortices are also compared to the analytical solution of the BH model for two vortices spinning in opposite directions. The model has its origin in aviation, where it describes two aircraft wake vortices spinning in opposite directions. An evaluation method is presented to measure detached-tip vortices with a fixed-wing UAS. The BH model will be used to describe wake vortex properties behind a wind energy converter (WEC). The circulation and core radius of detached blade-tip vortices will be calculated. Also a proposition of the model for WEC wake evaluations will be made to describe two independent co-rotating vortices. Quantifying blade-tip vortices helps to understand the process of vortices detaching from a rotor blade of a wind turbine, their development in the wake until finally dissipating in the far wake and contributing to overall atmospheric turbulence. This is especially interesting for set-ups of numerical simulations when setting the spatial resolution of the simulation grid.

Wind, waves, tides, and human error? – Influences on litter abundance and composition on German North Sea coastlines: An exploratory analysis

Being globally and locally prevalent, beach litter has been monitored at 29 sites along the German North Sea coastline. This study offers an exploratory analysis of data from 1991 to 2016. Schleswig-Holstein exhibited lower mean litter pollution levels than Lower Saxony, possibly because the locations in Lower Saxony are situated along the main coastal current, whereas the North Frisian Islands act as a barrier for the mainland sites in Schleswig-Holstein. Locations close to the Elbe estuary had significantly larger amounts of debris, likely receiving litter from marine and riverine sources. No clear overall pattern in litter abundance or composition could be detected. Significant quantitative similarities between debris types were inconsistent. The effect of wind, tides, and exposure appeared to be marginal. Recurring data inconsistencies, gaps, and outliers were partly attributed to human error. This could be reduced through hypothesis-driven monitoring with a simpler litter classification and continuous data checking.

Spatial distribution of foreshore litter on the northwest European continental shelf

Foreshore litter data from a UK citizen-science programme, combined with OSPAR data, were analysed for possible spatial patterns around Scottish and North Sea coastlines. Loading distributions were positively skewed, and statistics commensurate with such distributions were used. When considering coast type, litter loadings on Scottish harbour and river foreshores were influenced by local litter sources. When considering exposure to the predominant westerly winds over Scotland, litter loadings on the west coast (i.e. predominant onshore winds) were greater on foreshores on open coasts compared to those within embayments. The opposite was true for the Scottish east coast (i.e. predominantly offshore winds). The north east coast of the UK appeared to have an organised pattern of plastic litter loading, increasing in magnitude (median) and spread (inter quartile range) in the direction of the coastal flow. Four other coastal segments with similar patterns were suggested from the west of Scotland to Denmark.

A NOVEL HIGH-RESOLUTION STORM SURGE FORECAST FOR THE GERMAN BIGHT

Storm surges are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in coastal areas and have the ability to cause great damages including fatalities. To be prepared when another storm surge hits the coast, reliable storm surge forecasts are indispensable. Storm surge warnings are routinely provided for selected tide gauge locations along a coastline through state-of-the-art forecast systems. In Germany, the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) (in cooperation with the German Weather Service (DWD)) have the responsibility for storm surge forecasts and warnings along the German North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The operational system in place for the North Sea consists of numerical weather forecast systems, a surge model and model output statistics. It provides accurate high frequency water level forecasts up to six days ahead at selected tide gauge sites (Müller-Navarra and Knüpfer, 2010), but not for the coastline in between. Spatial forecasts are, however, currently not available for two reasons: first, the shallow coast with complex morphological structures leads to strong non-linearities between individual sites hampering simple interpolation schemes (Arns et al. 2015). Second, tidal predictions are limited to tide gauge locations, which do not fall dry during low tide, since the traditional estimation of tidal coefficients requires complete time series covering both low and high waters.

Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.

Behaviour of subtidal sandbars in response to nourishments

The behaviour of subtidal sandbars can be strongly influenced by the introduction of sand nourishments in the coastal system. This study focuses on the impact of nourishments on subtidal bar behaviour at spatio-temporal scales beyond a single nourishment project. It aims to determine the long-term behaviour of subtidal sandbars along an entire coastal cell, taking into account both the unnourished and nourished regime, and covering various types of nourishments. The analysis is based on over 50 years of sandbar evolution along the Delfland coast, a 17-km long coastal cell at the Dutch North Sea coastline protected by groynes and maintained with frequent sand nourishments. Observations reveal clearly different sandbar behaviour during the unnourished (first 20 years) and nourished periods of the dataset. Introduction of the first beach nourishments (nourished sand primarily placed at the subaerial beach) was found to stimulate sandbar development along previously unbarred sections of the coast. Shoreface nourishments (nourished sand placed at the seaward face of the pre-existing subtidal sandbar) tended to migrate shoreward rapidly at a rate of 20 to 60 m/year at this coast, thereby forcing the pre-existing sandbar to weld to the dry beach. An abrupt transition of sandbar dynamics was observed following a major nourishment operation (∼ 37.5 Mm3 of nourished sand) that covered the entire coastal cell. A new, shallow sandbar formed with a degree of alongshore variability that was unprecedented at the Delfland coast over the full study period. These results imply that individual nourishments can influence the formation and migration of individual sandbars, while continued nourishments can fundamentally change long-term sandbar dynamics along an entire coastal cell.

Delineation of tunnel valleys across the North Sea coastline, Denmark based on reflection seismic data, boreholes, TEM and Schlumberger soundings

Buried tunnel valleys are elongated depressions eroded into the substratum during the Pleistocene glaciations. Nine such valleys are mapped on- and offshore in a 300 km2 area located at the Danish North Sea coast. The delineation of the buried valleys is based on an extensive data set consisting of on- and offshore 2D seismic data, TEM (Transient Electro-Magnetic) soundings, Schlumberger soundings, and boreholes. The valleys are observed as discrete incisions with three overall orientations: SSE–NNW, ESE–WNW, and SSW–NNE. They have depths between 75 and 185 m, widths up to 1.8 km, and lengths from 7 to 25 km. The infill comprises till, glaciofluvial sand, and glaciolacustrine clay and silt. Younger tunnel valleys are found to often re-use pre-established valleys generating cut-and-fill structures which are clearly revealed on the reflection seismic profiles. Cross-cutting relations, preferred orientations, and morphology support that three of the tunnel valleys cross the North Sea coastline. It is suggested that the nine valleys were formed during at least six events that occurred through one or more pre-Weichselian glaciations.

The exceptional influence of storm ‘Xaver’ on design water levels in the German Bight

Design water levels for coastal structures are usually estimated based on extreme value statistics. Since their robustness depends heavily on the sample size of observations, regular statistical updates are needed, especially after extreme events. Here, we demonstrate the exceptional influence of such an event based on storm ‘Xaver’, which caused record breaking water levels for large parts of the southwestern German North Sea coastline on 6 December 2013. We show that the water level estimates for a 1 in 200 years event increased by up to 40 cm due to the update after ‘Xaver’, a value twice as large as the estimated regional sea level rise for the entire 20th century. However, a thorough analysis of different independent meteorological (winds and pressure) and oceanographic components (tides, surges, mean sea level (MSL) anomalies) driving the event reveals that their observed combination does not yet represent the physically possible worst case scenario. Neither tides, nor surges nor MSL anomalies were at their observational maximum, suggesting that there is a realistic risk of a storm like ‘Xaver’ to cause even higher extreme water levels by a few decimetres under current climate conditions. Our results question purely statistical design approaches of coastal structures, which neglect the physical boundary conditions of individual extreme events.

Claiming the Past: History, Memory, and Innovation Following the Christmas Flood of 1717

The Christmas Flood of 1717 affected much of the North Sea coastline between Denmark and the northern Netherlands and was one of the greatest disasters of the early modern era. This article investigates the impact of the flood in the northern Dutch province of Groningen and makes three interrelated claims. First, the flood showcased the contested nature of flood interpretation and adaptive decision making in the wake of disaster. Second, dialogues of conflict that developed in the aftermath of the flood focused on three issues: the divine causation of flooding, the financing of dike management, and the viability of technocratic solutions to flood risk. Third, the ultimate goal of much of the flood literature was to promote prescribed action but also to enshrine the motivations for those beliefs in legal precedent, history, and cultural memory. Rather than being defined by either cumulative experience or the shock of catastrophe, the Groninger response is a case study in the importance of both. This balance resulted in a dialogue that stressed continuity and convention while simultaneously facilitating technological innovation.

The co-incidence of storm surges and extreme discharges within the Rhine–Meuse Delta

The Netherlands is a low-lying coastal area and therefore threatened by both extreme river discharges from the Meuse and Rhine rivers and storm surges along the North Sea coastline. To date, in most flood risk analyses these two hazardous phenomena are considered independent. However, if there were a dependence between high sea water levels and extreme discharges this might result in higher design water levels, which might consequently have implications for flood protection policy in the Netherlands. In this study we explore the relation between high sea water levels at Hoek van Holland and high river discharges at Lobith. Different from previous studies, we use physical models forced by the same atmospheric forcing leading to concomitant and consistent time series of storm surge conditions and river discharge. These time series were generated for present day conditions as well as future climate projections and analysed for dependence within the upper tails of their distribution. In this study, dependence between the discharge at Lobith and storm surge at Hoek van Holland was found, and the dependence was highest for a lag of six days between the two processes. As no significant dependence of the threats was found for cases without time lag, there is no need for considering dependence in flood protection and policy making. Although future climate change is expected to lead to more extreme conditions in river discharges, we cannot conclude from this study that it will change the magnitude of the dependence for extreme conditions.

Environmental and health benefits from designating the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits as an emission control area (ECA).

Ship emissions degrade air quality and affect human health, and are increasingly becoming a matter of concern. Sulfur emission control areas (ECA), specific coastal regions where only low-sulfur fuels may be consumed by ocean-going ships, have proven to be useful tools to reduce ship-sourced air pollution along the North American, Canadian, and European North and Baltic Sea coastlines. The present work assesses the environmental and health benefits which would derive from designating an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits (50 000 ships/year; 23 million inhabitants). Results show evidence that implementing an ECA would be technically viable and that it would reduce ship-sourced PM10 and PM2.5 ambient concentrations in Istanbul by 67%, and SO2 by 90%. The reduction of the air pollution burden on health was quantified as 210 hospital admissions from exposure to PM10, 290 hospital admissions from exposure to SO2, and up to 30 premature deaths annually due to ECA emission controls. Consequently, the designation of an ECA in the Marmara Sea and the Turkish Straits is evaluated as a positive, technically viable and real-world measure to reduce air pollution from ships in Turkey.

Spatial distribution and basic ecology of Heterodera schachtii and H. betae wild populations developing on sea beet, Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima

Most populations of crop pathogens have wild relative populations from which they can originate but for which basic knowledge of their ecological requirementsin naturais scarce. However, the study of spatial distribution and ecology of wild pathogen populations may help control them in crops through a better understanding of the environmental factors driving population dynamics. Here, we focused onHeterodera schachtiiandH. betae, two cyst nematodes that cause severe damage to sugar beet (Beta vulgarisssp.vulgaris) crops and can develop on a wild beet relative, the sea beet (B. vulgarisssp.maritima). We investigated the occurrence of both nematode species in the wild and explored some environmental factors that may influence their geographical distribution. To do so, we sampled the wild hostB. v.ssp.maritimaalong the European Atlantic and North Sea coastlines. Results showed thatH. schachtiimainly occurred in the colder environments of northern Europe, whereasH. betaewas preferentially distributed in the warm environments of southern Europe. It was previously established thatH. betaeonly recently appeared in The Netherlands, which are in the north of Europe. Thus, our results do not support this hypothesis. Overall, this study accurately documents the geographical occurrence of two nematode crop pest species in the wild and helps identify the main environmental factors affecting their distribution range.

A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections

Atmosphere–ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In this study an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight is introduced. Monthly mean sea level (MSL) time series from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight and one virtual station record are evaluated in comparison to sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. A quasi-linear relationship between MSL in the German Bight and sea level pressure over Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula is found. This relationship is used (1) to evaluate the atmospheric contribution to MSL variability in hindcast experiments over the period from 1871–2008 with data from the twentieth century reanalysis v2 (20CRv2), (2) to isolate the high frequency meteorological variability of MSL from longer-term changes, (3) to derive ensemble projections of the atmospheric contribution to MSL until 2100 with eight different coupled global atmosphere–ocean models (AOGCM’s) under the A1B emission scenario and (4) two additional projections for one AOGCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) under the B1 and A2 emission scenarios. The hindcast produces a reasonable good reconstruction explaining approximately 80 % of the observed MSL variability over the period from 1871 to 2008. Observational features such as the divergent seasonal trend development in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. larger trends from January to March compared to the rest of the year, and regional variations along the German North Sea coastline in trends and variability are well described. For the period from 1961 to 1990 the Kolmogorov-Smirnow test is used to evaluate the ability of the eight AOGCMs to reproduce the observed statistical properties of MSL variations. All models are able to reproduce the statistical distribution of atmospheric MSL. For the target year 2100 the models point to a slight increase in the atmospheric component of MSL with generally larger changes during winter months (October–March). Largest MSL changes in the order of ~5–6 cm are found for the high emission scenario A2, whereas the moderate B1 and intermediate A1B scenarios lead to moderate changes in the order of ~3 cm. All models point to an increasing atmospheric contribution to MSL in the German Bight, but the uncertainties are considerable, i.e. model and scenario uncertainties are in the same order of magnitude.

Trends in high sea levels of German North Sea gauges compared to regional mean sea level changes

The impacts of rising mean sea levels will be felt most acutely during periods of extreme high sea levels which are caused by the combination of mean sea level, tides and storm surges. In this paper, we examine sea level records from six tide gauges along the German North Sea coastline to determine if changes in high sea levels observed throughout the 20th century and early 21st century were primarily driven by increases in mean sea level (i.e. like what has been observed by other authors in most parts of the world) or whether other factors, such as changes in ocean tides or storm surges also contributed significantly to observed changes in high water in this region. Time-series of annual 80th, 85th, 90th, 95th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles are derived from the sea level records and trends are assessed using linear regression for the entire time periods for which datasets are available at each site and for the common period from 1953 to 2008. The percentile time-series are subsequently reduced relative to mean sea level and a second set of trends are estimated. At all sites and percentile levels, significant positive trends are evident for the observed sea level data. Once the percentile time-series are reduced relative to mean sea level the remaining trends are still significant at the 1σ-confidence level, with the exception of the 99.9th percentiles since the standard errors are large. Using a non-linear trend analysis, on the long Cuxhaven record, we find that prior to the mid-1950s and from about 1990 onwards, changes in high sea levels were not different from mean sea level changes. However, from the mid-1950s to 1990 changes were significantly different from those observed in mean sea level. Possible reasons for this appear to be due to changes in the amplitudes of several main tidal constituents, which are apparent since the mid-1950s and decadal variability in the storm activity (with strong westerly winds in the North Atlantic region from 1960 to the 1990s).