North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Asymmetric Influences of ENSO Phases on the Predictability of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractThe North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) has a profound climatic influence. The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts the North Pacific SST; however, the influence of the distinct phases of ENSO on SST predictability remains unclear. To overcome the model limitations, this study assessed SST predictability under diverse ENSO phases using reanalysis. The predictability limit of the North Pacific SST under La Niña (8.4 months) is longer than that under Neutral (5.9 months) and El Niño (5.5 months) conditions, which unveils asymmetry. This asymmetry mirrors contemporary multimodal prediction skills. Error growth dynamics reveal La Niña's robust signal strength with a slow error growth rate, in contrast to El Niño's weaker signal and faster error growth. There exhibits intermediate signal strength and elevated error growth in Neutral condition. Physically, predictability signal strength aligns with SST variability, whereas the error growth rate correlates with atmospheric‐ocean heating anomalies. La Niña, which induces positive heating anomalies, minimizes the impact of atmospheric noise, resulting in lower error growth. The result is beneficial for improving North Pacific SST predictions.

Connections between low- and high- frequency variabilities of stratospheric northern annular mode and Arctic ozone depletion

Previous studies have demonstrated a dynamical linkage between the ozone and stratospheric polar vortex strength, but only a few have mentioned the persistence of the anomalous vortex. This study uses the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise to decompose the winter stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM) variabilities into relatively low frequencies (>4 months) and high frequencies (<2 months) (denoted as NAML and NAMH) and investigates their relationship with the Arctic ozone concentration in March. A closer relationship is found between the Arctic ozone and the NAML, i.e. a persistently strong stratospheric polar vortex in winter (especially February–March) is more critical than a short-lasting extremely strong vortex in contributing to Arctic ozone depletion. We find that a negative NAMH or major stratospheric sudden warming event in early winter could be a precursor for the anomalous depletion of Arctic ozone in March. The NAML changes are further related to the warm North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and ‘central-type’ El Niño-like or La Niña-like SST anomalies in early winter months, as well as cold North Atlantic SST anomalies and higher sea ice concentration in the Barents–Kara Sea from late-autumn to early-spring.

Impact of Time Scales on North Pacific Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes Driven by ENSO

AbstractENSO's atmospheric teleconnections drive anomalous North Pacific sea surface temperatures through changes in surface heat fluxes (“the atmospheric bridge”). Previous research focusing on the bridge as a seasonal phenomenon did not consider how ENSO‐related changes in synoptic variability might also impact surface turbulent heat fluxes (STHF). In this study, we find that while well over half of ENSO's impact on STHF occurs on low‐frequency (&gt;8 days) time scales, up to 20% of its impact arises on high‐frequency (&lt;8 days) time scales, through changes in the covariance between surface wind speed and air‐sea enthalpy difference that typically warms the ocean south of the storm track. During El Niño, the North Pacific storm track and its attendant sea surface warming shift southward, reducing warming of the central North Pacific ocean and thereby enhancing the bridge signal there. Additionally, changes in the bulk formula coefficients between ENSO phases drive STHF differences (5%–10%).

Evaluating the Performance of the North Pacific Victoria Mode as an ENSO Predictor Based on Multimodel Ensemble Hindcasts

Abstract The Victoria mode (VM), similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), is forced by North Pacific Oscillation atmospheric variability. Both the boreal spring VM and PMM can trigger the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following winter. Previous studies have examined the precursor relationship between the PMM and ENSO based on a subset of models drawn from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) system. They suggested that the PMM can act as a precursor to El Niño events, whereas it fails to predict La Niña events. Utilizing the hindcasts of these models from NMME, this study further investigates the role of the VM as an ENSO predictor to examine the real usefulness of the VM for ENSO prediction. When compared with the PMM, the VM can predict both El Niño and La Niña events with some skill, showing that the VM seems to be a more reliable predictor of ENSO. We found that the unique role of the VM in ENSO prediction originates from the symmetric impact of the VM on ENSO events. The VM, as a basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, combines the role of the SST over the subtropical northeastern Pacific that is similar to the PMM in initializing El Niño events with that of the SST over the western North Pacific that is different from PMM in initializing La Niña events, resulting in the symmetric effect of the VM on ENSO prediction. Thus, it is useful to consider VM variability as a reference for ENSO prediction. Significance Statement We aim to investigate whether the robust relationship between the boreal spring Victoria mode (VM) and the following winter ENSO in observations and climate models has any real predictive use, thus bridging the gap between theory and practical application. Our analyses based mainly on model hindcast datasets examine the forecasting skill of the VM for El Niño and La Niña events. We also reveal the symmetric impact of VM on ENSO through the analysis of observations, which explains the VM’s skill in predicting both El Niño and La Niña events. This study deepens our understanding of the effect of North Pacific SST variability on ENSO.

Statistical relationships between the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation

AbstractThe climate of the Pacific Ocean varies on interannual, decadal, and longer timescales. This variability is dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), both of which have profound impacts on countries within and well beyond the Pacific. To date, previous studies have only examined a small subset of the possible links between ENSO, its diversity, and the IPO. Here we focus on the statistical relationship between decadal variability in ENSO properties and the IPO, testing the null hypothesis that the IPO arises from random decadal changes in ENSO activity, including ENSO diversity. We use observed sea surface temperature (SST) records since 1920 to investigate how the timing, structure, frequency, duration, and magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events differ between IPO phases. We find that using the relative frequency of El Niño and La Niña events and either the mean event duration or SST magnitude can reproduce up to 60% of the IPO Tripole Index timeseries. While the spatial SST patterns that represent the IPO and ENSO are similar, the IPO is meridionally broader in the central to eastern Pacific, which may be caused by a lagged relationship with low-frequency SST variability in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, North Pacific SST anomalies of opposite sign to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies is a unique feature of the IPO that cannot be explained by decadal ENSO variability. This suggests a clear IPO and ENSO relationship, but also independence in some of the IPO’s characteristics.

Climate attribution time series track the evolution of human influence on North Pacific sea surface temperature

We apply climate attribution techniques to sea surface temperature time series from five regional North Pacific ecosystems to track the growth in human influence on ocean temperatures over the past seven decades (1950–2022). Using Bayesian estimates of the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) and Risk Ratio (RR) derived from 23 global climate models, we show that human influence on regional ocean temperatures could first be detected in the 1970s and grew until 2014–2020 temperatures showed overwhelming evidence of human contribution. For the entire North Pacific, FAR and RR values show that temperatures have reached levels that were likely impossible in the preindustrial climate, indicating that the question of attribution is already obsolete at the basin scale. Regional results indicate the strongest evidence for human influence in the northernmost ecosystems (Eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska), though all regions showed FAR values > 0.98 for at least one year. Extreme regional SST values that were expected every 1000–10 000 years in the preindustrial climate are expected every 5–40 years in the current climate. We use the Gulf of Alaska sockeye salmon fishery to show how attribution time series may be used to contextualize the impacts of human-induced ocean warming on ecosystem services. We link negative warming effects on sockeye fishery catches to increasing human influence on regional temperatures (increasing FAR values), and we find that sockeye salmon migrating to sea in years with the strongest evidence for human effects on temperature (FAR ⩾ 0.98) produce catches 1.4 standard deviations below the long-term log mean. Attribution time series may be helpful indicators for better defining the human role in observed climate change impacts, and may thus help researchers, managers, and stakeholders to better understand and plan for the effects of climate change.

Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

Based on the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies on sea-ice melting, this paper develops a statistical forecasting model for the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset (EMO) in the Bering Sea using the interannual increment prediction method. The prediction model considers three physically meaningful predictors: the January Beaufort High (P1-H500), the November sea-level pressure (P2-SLP) over eastern Siberia, and the November snow cover over the eastern European Plain (P3-Snowc). P1-H500 can influence the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Bering Sea through ocean–atmosphere interactions, and this SST anomaly can persist from January to March. Subsequently, it affects the EMO in the Bering Sea. P2-SLP exhibits a close association with the east part of the midlatitude North Pacific SST in November. The colder midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies, which persist from November until January and February of the following year, will be accompanied by warmer SST anomalies in the Bering Sea, which result in a decreased sea-ice extent and a later-than-usual EMO. The Arctic dipole anomaly in January is one of the ways in which P3-Snowc affects the EMO in the following year. The predicted EMO shows good agreement with the observed EMO in the cross-validation test for 1981–2022, with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.45, exceeding the 99% confidence level. The prediction accuracy of the prediction model for positive and negative abnormal years of EMO is 60% and 41%, respectively.摘要基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程, 本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型. 预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子: 1月波弗特高压, 前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压, 以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率. 1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常, 该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月, 进而影响白令海EMO. 11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关. 伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现, 白令海地区会出现暖海温异常, 进而导致白令海海冰范围减少, EMO较晚. 1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一. 1981−2022年的交叉检验结果表明: 统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力, 预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45, 超过了99%的置信水平. 统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

Varying Relationship between La Niña and SST Anomalies in the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions during Boreal Winter: Role of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

Abstract The winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions (KAR), which greatly influence the East Asian–North Pacific–North American climate, are closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This SST relationship between the KAR and the equatorial eastern-central Pacific is widely assumed to be symmetric between El Niño and La Niña. Compared to previous studies indicating the significant and strong KAR warming during El Niño winters, this study indicates weakly negative KAR SST anomalies in the composite analysis for all La Niña events. Positive winter KAR SST anomalies unexpectedly appear in approximately half of La Niña events, which counteract negative SST anomalies in the rest of La Niña events. Further analysis suggests that the impact of La Niña on KAR SST anomalies is modulated by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) during early winter. The weaker-than-normal EAWM offsets the anomalous northeasterly winds in the KAR induced by La Niña and then reinforces the KAR warming through warm oceanic advection. As for strong EAWM, it enhances the northeasterly winds to the west of an anomalous Philippine Sea cyclone associated with La Niña, leading to KAR cooling with more latent heat flux loss from the ocean and anomalous cold oceanic advection. Additionally, when the EAWM is independent of ENSO and is associated with the western Pacific pattern, it also can exhibit a pronounced influence on the KAR SST anomalies via the major processes of surface latent flux and horizontal heat advection in the ocean, accompanied by a change in Kuroshio transport. Significance Statement The interannual variability of SST from Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions is considered an important forecast factor of the eastern China climate. Previous studies have reported a dipole SST pattern with Philippine Sea cooling and warming in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions during El Niño winter is dominant, and simply regarded that the effect of La Niña on western North Pacific SST anomalies was a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Here, we have found two distinctive SST patterns in the western North Pacific during La Niña winter. One type is the dipole SST pattern, characterized by Philippine Sea warming and by cooling in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The other type is the monopole SST pattern with uniform warming expanding from the Philippine Sea to the Kuroshio and adjacent regions. The dipole (monopole) SST pattern in western North Pacific is modulated by La Niña and a strong (weak) EAWM. Analysis shows that the above two SST patterns during La Niña winter are equally important during 1950–2021. This study has identified the influence of the EAWM independent of ENSO on the SST anomalies in the Kuroshio and adjacent regions.

Impacts of the extratropical North Pacific on boreal summer Arctic circulation

A distinct characteristic of the Arctic summer atmospheric circulation is the anomalous anticyclonic circulation centered over the Arctic Ocean associated with significant Arctic warming. Previous studies have related the underlying mechanisms to the earlier spring Eurasian snowmelt and the tropical Pacific forcing. Here, the authors show that the Arctic summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation is significantly related to the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in spring, indicating a teleconnection from the extratropical North Pacific to the Arctic. The SSTA pattern is characterized by warm anomalies in the midlatitudes of the extratropical North Pacific surrounded by significant cold anomalies, resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but without significant signals in the tropics (referred to as the negative PDO-like pattern). This negative PDO-like pattern in May can stimulate a Rossby wave propagating from the Bering Sea to the Arctic and lead to an anomalous Arctic anticyclone which can be sustained during summer. Meanwhile, the negative PDO-like pattern can persist to summer and induce an anomalous surface low pressure over the Bering Sea in summer. This anomalous surface low causes anomalous rising motions and induces upper-level divergence anomalies which further intensify the summer Arctic anticyclone. The upper-level tropospheric Arctic anticyclone can force anomalous adiabatic descent over the Arctic and sub-Arctic, leading to significant adiabatic heating in the Arctic. As a result, a significant warming emerges over the Arctic with the center located in the middle troposphere. The connection between the negative PDO-like SSTAs and the summer Arctic anticyclone has been confirmed by numerical experiments.

The Relationships Between Meridional Position of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and North American Surface Temperatures Revealed by CMIP6 Models

AbstractIn this study, we obtained the first leading mode and principal component 1 (PC1) of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The PC1‐related SST anomalies, located relatively north/south, are referred to as North/South PC1 events. Model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments show that during the North PC1 events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs and is located relatively north, favoring anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies induce a strong warming anomaly over North America via warm advection of the anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of the climatological westerlies over North America. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and corresponding southerly anomaly associated with South PC1 events shift southward, favoring weakened effects of South PC1 events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. The meridional position of PC1 events deserves to be considered in the studies of the PC1 and its related climate changes.

An Origin of North American Monsoon Retreat Biases in Climate Models

Abstract Many coupled climate models suffer from a late retreat bias in North American monsoon (NAM) simulations, which is manifested by overestimated precipitation in October. The overestimated precipitation has long been attributed to the negative sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic and insufficient model resolution to resolve mesoscale features. However, we found little correlation between CMIP6 model resolutions and the simulated NAM retreat-season precipitation in October. Instead, we showed that tropical eastern North Pacific SST biases and the associated large-scale circulation biases play a dominant role in inducing the retreat-season biases, with SST biases in other ocean basins playing a secondary role. As revealed by simulations using a hierarchy of models, the positive SST biases in the tropical eastern North Pacific enhance local convection and lead to positive diabatic heating biases throughout the troposphere; the diabatic heating biases generate a Matsuno–Gill type of response that strengthens the subtropical high over the North Atlantic and weakens the subtropical high over the North Pacific, enhancing the low-level northward moisture transport from the tropics to the NAM region. The conclusion is robust across phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) models. The precipitation seasonality in the NAM region is used to constrain future projection. The “good” CMIP6 models project that the timing of the NAM peak season remains the same, but the peak-season precipitation is reduced and monsoon retreat is delayed, while the “poor” CMIP6 models project a delayed monsoon peak season with slightly enhanced peak-season precipitation. Both model groups project a drier dry season in the NAM region.

Interdecadal Enhancement in the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central-Western Pacific after the Early 1990s

Interdecadal Enhancement in the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central-Western Pacific after the Early 1990s

Decadal changes in the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone and sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific

Using multi-source observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study found that the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone in March and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in April shows dramatic decadal changes, and it significantly weakens since the 2000s. By enhancing the stratospheric circulations, a decreased Arctic stratospheric ozone favors tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO)-like anomaly during PRE eras (1979–1999), with positive geopotential height (GH) anomalies over high-latitude Asia. The stratospheric ozone anomaly also favors the Asian positive GH anomalies via modulating high cloud and its related longwave radiation. According to geostrophic wind relationships, the Asian positive GH anomalies are accompanied by easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia in late March, which further extend eastward and thereby induce easterly anomalies over the midlatitude North Pacific. The North Pacific easterly anomalies result in negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like anomaly via vorticity forcing of zonal wind and the interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and mean flow, forcing significant SST anomalies. However, during POST eras (2000–2019), firstly, the +AO-related positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia are relatively weak, accompanied by weak easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia according to geostrophic wind relations, which induce weak easterly anomalies over the North Pacific. Secondly, a westerly anomaly occurs over the midlatitude North Pacific, which partly offsets the easterly anomalies from Asia, weakening the North Pacific easterly anomalies. The weak easterly anomalies further induce weak –NPO and SST anomalies during the POST eras. Our analysis further indicates that the North Pacific westerly anomalies and weakening of the positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia associated with ozone are related to the interference of the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation and the weakened stratospheric ozone anomaly over high-latitude Asia, respectively.

Can Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth Influence the Interannual Association between Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons?

Abstract This study finds that the observed decrease in winter–spring Tibetan Plateau snow depth since 2000 has played an important role in weakening the correlation between rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Tibetan Plateau snow depth modulates convective activity through changes in the South Asian high. Increased Tibetan Plateau snow depth promotes basinwide tropical Indian Ocean cooling in spring through a Gill-type response. In the following seasons, downward latent heat flux anomalies associated with a weaker monsoon circulation contributes to warm SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean, thus favoring a positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole. This evolution of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs associated with anomalously high Tibetan Plateau snow depth potentially weakens the relationship between rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone frequency and spring tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. When the effect of Tibetan Plateau snow depth is removed via partial correlation analysis, we find a significant relationship between spring tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones as well as corresponding large-scale environmental factors. The results of this study enhance understanding of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and have implications for seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity over the western North Pacific basin. This study also emphasizes the importance of Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in atmosphere–ocean coupling.

Forcing and impact of the Northern Hemisphere continental snow cover in 1979–2014

Abstract. The main drivers of the continental Northern Hemisphere snow cover are investigated in the 1979–2014 period. Four observational datasets are used as are two large multi-model ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). A first ensemble uses observed interannually varying SST and SIC conditions for 1979–2014, while a second ensemble is identical except for SIC with a repeated climatological cycle used. SST and external forcing typically explain 10 % to 25 % of the snow cover variance in model simulations, with a dominant forcing from the tropical and North Pacific SST during this period. In terms of the climate influence of the snow cover anomalies, both observations and models show no robust links between the November and April snow cover variability and the atmospheric circulation 1 month later. On the other hand, the first mode of Eurasian snow cover variability in January, with more extended snow over western Eurasia, is found to precede an atmospheric circulation pattern by 1 month, similar to a negative Arctic oscillation (AO). A decomposition of the variability in the model simulations shows that this relationship is mainly due to internal climate variability. Detailed outputs from one of the models indicate that the western Eurasia snow cover anomalies are preceded by a negative AO phase accompanied by a Ural blocking pattern and a stratospheric polar vortex weakening. The link between the AO and the snow cover variability is strongly related to the concomitant role of the stratospheric polar vortex, with the Eurasian snow cover acting as a positive feedback for the AO variability in winter. No robust influence of the SIC variability is found, as the sea ice loss in these simulations only drives an insignificant fraction of the snow cover anomalies, with few agreements among models.

Reconstruction of Surface Seawater pH in the North Pacific

In the recent significant rise in atmospheric CO2, seawater’s continuous acidification is altering the marine environment’s chemical structure at an unprecedented rate. Due to its potential socioeconomic impact, this subject attracted significant research interest. This study used traditional linear regression, nonlinear regression random forest, and the BP neural network algorithm to establish a prediction model for surface seawater pH based on data of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), salinity (SSS), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and pressure of carbon dioxide on the sea surface (pCO2) from 1993 to 2018. According to existing research, three approaches were found to be highly accurate in reconstructing the surface seawater pH of the North Pacific. The highest-performing models were the linear regression model using SSS, Chl-a, and pCO2, the random forest model using SST and pCO2, and the BP neural network model using SST, SSS, Chl-a, and pCO2. The BP neural network model outperformed the linear regression and random forest model when comparing the root mean square error and fitting coefficient of the three best models. In addition, the best BP neural network model had substantially higher seasonal applicability than the best linear regression and the best random forest model, with good fitting effects in all four seasons—spring, summer, autumn, and winter. The process of CO2 exchange at the sea–air interface was the key factor affecting the pH of the surface seawater, which was found to be negatively correlated with pCO2 and SST, and positively correlated with SSS and Chl-a. Using the best BP neural network model to reconstruct the surface seawater pH over the North Pacific, it was found that the pH exhibited significant temporal and spatiotemporal variation characteristics. The surface seawater pH value was greater in the winter than the summer, and the pH decline rate over the past 26 years averaged 0.0013 yr−1, with a general decreasing tendency from the northwest to the southeast. The highest value was observed in the tropical western Pacific, while the lowest value was observed in the eastern equatorial region with upwelling, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies.

Remote tropical central Pacific influence on driving sea surface temperature variability in the Northeast Pacific

The Northeast Pacific (NEP) had two record-breaking marine heatwave events in the winters of 2013–2015 and summer of 2019, which had a detrimental impact on the fisheries, marine ecosystems, and climate in North America. Here, we investigated the cause of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in NEP during late spring–summer of 1981–2020. The regression circulation anomalies to the principal component of leading empirical orthogonal function mode suggested that the warm NEP SST were characterized by a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the midlatitude North Pacific and a warming SST center in the Gulf of Alaska. We noted that this cyclonic circulation anomaly, attributable to a barotropic atmospheric wave originating from the tropical central Pacific (CP) in the preceding spring, reduced the surface heat flux loss from the ocean to the atmosphere in the NEP and led to the warm SST anomalies in summer. This finding was confirmed by not only empirical diagnosis but also long-term numerical simulations forced by the observed SST perturbations in the tropical CP. Our results highlight the role of the tropical CP SST in driving the summertime North Pacific SST variability through the atmospheric bridge in recent decades.

Leading Modes of Wintertime North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers and Their Drivers

AbstractNorth Pacific Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are affected by many climate modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, such impacts are often examined individually and outside of the context of ARs' own variability. It remains an open question as to the relative importance of each climate mode in affecting the inter‐annual variability of AR occurrences. This work proposes an answer to the above inquiry, via a rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on wintertime AR occurrences. Four major modes of AR occurrence variability are identified: The first mode features a southeast‐northwest shift of the AR tracks, and is associated with the pair of the second leading EOFs of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The second mode features a large scale suppression of North Pacific ARs and an enhancement west of the California coasts. This is a decadal variability associated with PDO. The third mode features meridionally contracted AR tracks over the Eastern Pacific. This is associated with the leading EOFs of the North Pacific atmosphere/SST, and the inter‐annual component of PDO. These three modes each contributes ∼19% to the total variances. The fourth mode, with a 12.7% variance contribution, carries the complementary information of the non‐linear El Niño ‐ La Niña transition, and features two slanted anomaly bands over boundaries of the basin. Key atmospheric/oceanic driving forces associated with each mode are examined, and certain climate modes exhibit promising predictive power to wintertime AR occurrences.

The Role of Coupled North Pacific Atmosphere–Ocean Interactions in Impacts of Tibetan Plateau Snow Anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Previous studies indicate observed influences of autumn and winter Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow-cover anomalies on the winter Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection. This study simulates atmospheric and oceanic responses to persistent autumn–winter TP snow forcing using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM), and quantifies the role of atmosphere–ocean interactions over North Pacific in TP snow effects. The AOGCM experiment induces a stronger and more realistic remote PNA response to heavy TP snow anomalies, and also a significant winter horseshoe-like North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) pattern resulting from an anomalous equivalent barotropic cyclone, or a strengthened Aleutian low, with associated cyclonic wind stress anomalies. The horseshoe-like SST anomaly pattern is used as boundary forcing (without prescribed heavy TP snow) in another AOGCM experiment, which simulates an enhanced winter Aleutian low and a PNA-like response similar to the original AOGCM responses, indicating that that the direct Pacific–North American atmospheric response to persistent TP snow forcing in the AGCM is amplified in the AOGCM by the North Pacific midlatitude atmosphere–ocean interactions. This suggests that the mechanisms of the winter PNA responses to TP snow forcing involve dynamical atmospheric processes such as horizontal propagation of Rossby wave energy and transient eddy feedbacks, and also North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which provide a positive feedback on the development of the remote PNA teleconnection. Significance Statement The Tibetan Plateau has a 2.5 million km2 area and a 4000 m average elevation, and is often called “the third pole” because of its polar-like climate in midlatitude Eurasia. A heavy Tibetan Plateau snow cover increases the albedo effect and causes tropospheric cold temperature and low height changes that can be carried or advected to the North Pacific by the prevailing westerlies. The purpose of this study is to better understand how Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies influence the North Pacific and the remote atmospheric circulation through numerical simulations. Our results find that those North Pacific responses amply the direct atmospheric response to Tibetan Plateau snow-cover anomalies. This greatly improves our understanding of physical mechanisms of Tibetan Plateau snow impacts.

Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractThe analysis revisits the calculation of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific from 1950 to 2021. The first EOF and PC of SST has proven to be such a useful metric of variability in the North Pacific that it is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find that the period of persistent marine heatwaves beginning in 2014 caused a fundamental change to the first EOF and PC of SST (calculated using data from 1950 to 2021) as compared to the established PDO spatial pattern (calculated using data from 1950 to 1993). The second EOF of SST has also changed during this period, both in spatial pattern and in the amount of variance explained. A conclusion is that the PDO and other EOF based metrics may not be as useful in the future as climate continues to change.