North Pacific Ocean Research Articles

Structuring of particle-associated bacterial communities along the extracellular polymeric substance gradient of sinking and suspended particles in an oligotrophic, subtropical region of the western North Pacific Ocean

Extracellular polymeric substances, such as transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) composed of acidic polysaccharides, are important particulate organic carbon (POC) components of marine environments that affect particle dynamics and ocean carbon export. However, how polymeric substances interact with and shape bacterial communities associated with marine particles is poorly understood. This study investigated whether the composition of particle-associated bacterial communities differs between sinking and suspended particles, which differ in their polymeric substance contents, in the upper water column of the subtropical, oligotrophic Kuroshio region. Bacterial taxa likely involved in polymer degradation (Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Bacteroidia) were enriched on sinking particles with a lower TEP: POC ratio, indicating that bacterial degradation of polymeric substances promotes particle sinking by removing positively buoyant polymers. By contrast, suspended particles were increasingly enriched for Bdellovibrionota and Desulfobacterota as the TEP: POC ratio increased. These taxa, which include predatory microbes, seem to prefer polymer-rich environments with a high density of potential prey. Planctomycetota were not significantly related to the TEP: POC ratio, indicating their broad niche breadth on particles’ polymeric substance contents. The results suggest that the bacterial niche differentiation associated with the particle polymeric-substance gradient shapes bacterial communities in a subtropical ocean.

Marine N2-fixer Crocosphaera waterburyi.

Marine N2-fixing cyanobacteria, including the unicellular genus Crocosphaera, are considered keystone species in marine food webs. Crocosphaera are globally distributed and provide new sources of nitrogen and carbon, which fuel oligotrophic microbial communities and upper trophic levels. Despite their ecosystem importance, only one pelagic, oligotrophic, phycoerythrin-rich species, Crocosphaera watsonii, has ever been identified and characterized as widespread. Herein, we present a new species, named Crocosphaera waterburyi, enriched from the North Pacific Ocean. C. waterburyi was found to be phenotypically and genotypically distinct from C. watsonii, active in situ, distributed globally, and preferred warmer temperatures in culture and the ocean. Additionally, C. waterburyi was detectable in 150- and 4000-meter sediment export traps, had a relatively larger biovolume than C. watsonii, and appeared to aggregate in the environment and laboratory culture. Therefore, it represents an additional, previously unknown link between atmospheric CO2 and N2 gas and deep ocean carbon and nitrogen export and sequestration.

First Capture of the Deep-Sea Careproctus bathycoetus (Liparidae) a Century After the Fish Was Described (North Pacific)—Revised Diagnosis and Notes on Ecology

The deep-sea snailfish Careproctus bathycoetus Gilbert et Burke, 1912 was described a century ago from a single specimen caught at a depth of 3292 m in the Kuril Basin (southern Sea of Okhotsk, western North Pacific). Until now, it was known from the holotype only. Therefore, the capture of another specimen is of great interest and provides new data on the morphology and ecology of the species. The second known specimen was collected by the international expedition “SohoBio” (2015) at a depth of 3305 m in the Kuril Basin near the type locality. This study provides a description of a rare fish, which allows us to improve the diagnosis of the species. Differences from other deep-sea snailfishes from the North Pacific Ocean are also given. At a depth of 3292–3305 m, the species lives in extreme conditions: complete darkness, temperature at about 1.9 °C, water pressure about 3300 ton/m2, low oxygen concentration, and low biomass of prey. Related Careproctus species can most likely be found in the abyssal depths of the neighboring Kuril–Kamchatka Trench.

Reasons for Different Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Abstract Recent several studies have focused on the predictability of tropical cyclone track forecast. As a response to the question issued by Landsea and Cangialosi (2018) about "the approaching limit of predictability for tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is near or has already been reached", Zhou and Toth (2020) (short for ZT20) and Yu et al. (2022) (short for Y22) have found that the limit of predictability for TC track prediction has not been reached both in Atlantic (ATL) and Western North Pacific (WNP) basins. However, the predictabilities are different in two basins, as ZT20 found that 1 day's improvement can be obtained through 10 years in ATL, while Y22 found that 2 days' improvement can be obtained through 15 years in WNP. To reveal the causes of this difference, the predictability of TC track in WNP is first investigated under the same framework as ZT20. Then important parameters that determined the predictabilities are found and analyzed. Results suggested that the growth rate of true track forecast error in WNP is higher than that in ATL, indicating a lower predictability in WNP. Further explorations suggested that TCs in WNP basin have averagely larger sizes, stronger intensities, lower-latitude locations, and poorer forecast skills of their guided flows. All these factors contribute to the larger track forecast error growth rate. Moreover, it is pointed out that as the improvement of forecast skills over years mainly due to the reduction of initial analysis errors, although a lower predictability is found in WNP, the forecast skill improvement in WNP is faster than that in ATL.

Novel isolates expand the physiological diversity of Prochlorococcus and illuminate its macroevolution.

Prochlorococcus is a diverse picocyanobacterial genus and the most abundant phototroph on Earth. Its photosynthetic diversity divides it into high-light (HL)- or low-light (LL)-adapted groups representing broad phylogenetic grades-each composed of several monophyletic clades. Here, we physiologically characterize four new Prochlorococcus strains isolated from below the deep chlorophyll maximum in the North Pacific Ocean. We combine these physiological properties with genomic analyses to explore the evolution of photosynthetic antennae and discuss potential macroevolutionary implications. The isolates belong to deeply branching low-light-adapted clades that have no other cultivated representatives and display some unusual characteristics. For example, despite its otherwise low-light-adapted physiological characteristics, strain MIT1223 has low chl b2 content similar to high-light-adapted strains. Isolate genomes revealed that each strain contains a unique arsenal of pigment biosynthesis and binding alleles that have been horizontally acquired, contributing to the observed physiological diversity. Comparative genomic analysis of all picocyanobacteria reveals that Pcb, the major pigment carrying protein in Prochlorococcus, greatly increased in copy number and diversity per genome along a branch that coincides with the loss of facultative particle attachment. Collectively, these observations support a recently developed macroevolutionary model, in which niche-constructing radiations allowed ancestral lineages of picocyanobacteria to transition from a particle-attached to planktonic lifestyle and broadly colonize the euphotic zone.IMPORTANCEThe marine cyanobacterium, Prochlorococcus, is among the Earth's most abundant organisms, and much of its genetic and physiological diversity remains uncharacterized. Although field studies help reveal the scope of diversity, cultured isolates allow us to link genomic potential to physiological processes, illuminate eco-evolutionary feedbacks, and test theories arising from comparative genomics of wild cells. Here, we report the isolation and characterization of novel low-light (LL)-adapted Prochlorococcus strains that fill in multiple evolutionary gaps. These new strains are the first cultivated representatives of the LLVII and LLVIII paraphyletic grades of Prochlorococcus, which are broadly distributed in the lower regions of the ocean euphotic zone. Each of these grades is a unique, highly diverse section of the Prochlorococcus tree that separates distinct ecological groups: the LLVII grade branches between monophyletic clades that have facultatively particle-associated and constitutively planktonic lifestyles, whereas the LLVIII grade lies along the branch that leads to all high-light (HL)-adapted clades. Characterizing strains and genomes from these grades yields insights into the large-scale evolution of Prochlorococcus. The new LLVII and LLVIII strains are adapted to growth at very low irradiance levels and possess unique light-harvesting gene signatures and pigmentation. The LLVII strains represent the most basal Prochlorococcus group with a major expansion in photosynthetic antenna genes. Furthermore, a strain from the LLVIII grade challenges the paradigm that all LL-adapted Prochlorococcus exhibit high ratios of chl b:a2. These findings provide insights into the photophysiological evolution of Prochlorococcus and redefine what it means to be a low- vs high-light-adapted Prochlorococcus cell.

Long Distance Transport of Subsurface Sediment‐Derived Iron From Asian to Alaskan Margins in the North Pacific Ocean

AbstractThe international GEOTRACES program has been instrumental in demonstrating how marine sediments are a critical source of dissolved Fe to the world's oceans. Here, we present dissolved iron (dFe) from the GEOTRACES North Pacific GP15 section, which, alongside other sediment‐source tracers (including dissolved δ56Fe, Mn, 228Ra, and particulate Fe), allows for identification of the dFe provenance of three distinct dFe depth maxima at the Alaskan margin. Two of these (shelf and abyssal depths) are of local Alaskan sedimentary origin. The third, a mid‐depth dFe maximum with an absence of 228Ra, is an advected signal that, based on tracer data from Western Pacific GEOTRACES transects and circulation models, must be advected from sedimentary sources on the Asian margin, ∼5,000 km away. This study illustrates the importance of measuring diagnostic sedimentary tracers like radium when assigning local margins as sedimentary sources of marine trace metal budgets.

Adapting management of Pacific salmon to a warming and more crowded ocean

Abstract The North Pacific Ocean is warming and overall Pacific salmon abundance is higher now than at any other time in the past century. This increase in abundance is in large part due to warming-related changes in marine ecosystems at northern latitudes that primarily benefit pink salmon, and industrial-scale hatchery production to support commercial fisheries. A large body of evidence indicates that increasing and more variable ocean temperatures, as well as competition among salmon at sea, are associated with shifts in salmon productivity, body size, and age at maturation. However, these relationships vary by species, location, and time, resulting in increased harvest opportunities in some regions and exacerbated conservation concerns in others. The weight-of-evidence suggests North Pacific salmon nations should, as a minimum, limit further increases in hatchery salmon production until there is a better scientific understanding of hatchery and wild salmon distribution at sea, how they interact, and how the consequences of these interactions are influenced by broader climate and ecosystem conditions. Coordinated research to overcome knowledge gaps and develop strategies to reduce unintended interactions between hatchery and wild salmon could be funded (in part) by a tax placed on industrial-scale hatchery salmon releases. A tax would formalize recognition that there are finite prey resources to support salmon in the ocean and that both prey and wild salmon represent a “common property” whose use should not be without cost to those that seek to benefit from them. We highlight additional approaches salmon nations can take to adapt to changing conditions and suggest that improved communication and collaboration among North Pacific salmon research and management agencies will be key to balancing the benefits and risks of a warming and more crowded ocean.

Angular Momentum Transportation by Zonal Circulation Helps Meridional Displacements of East Asian Westerly Jet

ABSTRACTThe meridional displacements of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) exhibit remarkable interannual variability characteristics, significantly modulating the weather and climate over East Asia. Our study aims to refine the thermal‐driven (angular momentum transport) and dynamically driven (atmospheric eddy activities) processes that dominate the interannual meridional motion of the wintertime EAJ. We employ the recently proposed three‐pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P‐DGAC) theory to decompose the zonal momentum equation for the purpose of diagnosing the zonal momentum budget of the EAJ from three‐dimensional (3D) horizontal, meridional and zonal circulation perspectives. Results indicate that, in addition to the widely recognised driving mechanisms of angular momentum transported by thermal direct meridional Hadley circulation and horizontal eddy momentum flux convergence, the previously neglected role of local zonal circulation in transporting angular momentum significantly impacts the meridional shift of EAJ. The uneven accumulation of angular momentum transported by asymmetric zonal circulations emerges on the northern and southern sides of EAJ axis, causing an abnormal meridional displacement of EAJ. Notably, the local zonal circulation rising from the Tibetan Plateau and descending across the North Pacific Ocean transported angular momentum to the core and downstream regions of EAJ, thereby significantly accelerating zonal winds and pushing the EAJ northward. Further investigation into the potential mechanisms suggests that anomalous snow depth on the southern Tibetan Plateau is the main factor causing abnormal local zonal circulation. Our study addresses the deficiency in traditional two‐dimensional (2D) circulation decomposition methods that neglect the significant role of zonal circulation in the thermal‐driven process of EAJ, complements the understanding of 3D angular momentum transport mechanisms and reveals potential nonlinear synergies of 3D circulations related to the interannual meridional displacement of EAJ.

Microphysical characteristics of torrential predecessor rain events over the Yangtze River Delta Area and the related tropical cyclones

The precipitation structures and microphysical characteristics of predecessor rain events (PREs) over the Yangtze River Delta area and related tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2014 to 2019 were investigated using Dual-frequency Precipitation radar data from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) for drop size distributions (DSDs). Results showed that the total mean rain rate of PREs was larger than that of TCs, primarily due to higher convective and stratiform rain rates, with enhanced fractional coverage of convective rain in PREs. Examination of microphysical characteristics revealed that a greater quantity of small-sized droplets and a smaller quantity of medium- as well as large-sized droplets contributed towards PREs in comparison with TCs. The conclusion still holds when partitioning DSDs based on different precipitation rate categories. Further investigation of DSDs using gamma functions illustrated that precipitation in PREs had lower average mass-weighted diameters (Dm) and enhanced normalized number concentration (Nw) compared with TCs; partitioning precipitation into convective and stratiform components illustrated a larger Dm and lower Nw in TCs than PREs. The analysis of microphysical and thermodynamical processes using the reanalysis data indicates that relatively intense convective activity with drier conditions may be favorable to enhancing raindrop growth through collision-coalescence processes, as a result of larger Dm in TCs than PREs. The empirical relations (Z–R algorithms) applied in different rain regimes (stratiform, convective, and total PREs) revealed significant diversities, relying on weather conditions and geographical locations. Plain language summaryThe Yangtze River Delta area is an important economic belt in China. Under climate change, observed frequent occurrences of weather extremes of heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones (TCs) exert adverse effects on economic development in this region. Thus, a deep understanding of the mechanism of TCs torrential rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta area is urgently necessary. In this study, we investigated the precipitation patterns and microphysical characteristics of predecessor rain events (PREs) in the Yangtze River Delta region, and their association with TCs in the South China Sea-Western North Pacific Ocean (SCS-WNPO) area from 2014 to 2019. We found that PREs had a higher total mean precipitation rate than TCs. Further examination using gamma functions demonstrated that PREs exhibited lower average mass-weighted diameters (Dm) and higher normalized intercept parameters (Nw) than TCs. This pattern persisted when distinguishing between convective and stratiform precipitation components. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature because these results provide valuable insights into the distinct precipitation characteristics of PREs and TCs in the study region and contribute to a better understanding of tropical cyclone-related rainfall patterns, and act as a scientific basis for disaster mitigation.

Amazon severe drought in 2023 triggered surface water loss

Abstract The Amazon underwent a severe austral springtime drought attributed to the onset of El Niño in 2023 and the warmer North Atlantic, Indian, and North Pacific Oceans. The Amazon rivers, lakes, small streams, wetlands, and reservoirs quickly lowered their water level below historical records due to decreased rainfall and warmth in the region. Based on satellite imagery, this study presents the first estimate of the water loss extent in the 4.2 million km2 of the Brazilian Amazon biome (∼62% of the Amazon total biome) in 2023. We estimated the loss of 3.3 million hectares of surface water relative to 2022, with an overall accuracy of 92%. The surface water losses were concentrated in the states of Amazonas (59.4%) and Pará (25.5), adding up to 2.8 million hectares. The warmer and drier climate in the region affected the main rivers in the Amazon. Among them, the Solimões, Negro, Purus, Acre, and Branco suffered extreme drops in their levels in some regions, resulting in a high negative impact on the aquatic biodiversity, yet estimated only in local areas. A total of 1.14 million hectares of surface water loss (i.e. 35%) was detected within protected areas territories, affecting extractivist, indegenous, African-Brazilian, and fishing and traditional communities. Proximity analysis revealed that 75% of the 2023 surface water loss was within 25 km of small towns, 48% and 65.8% at 50 km from indigenous villages and urban areas, respectively. Our results reinforce people’s vulnerability to climate change, anticipating a plausible adverse impact scenario in the Amazon region and urging solutions to adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, an integrated monitoring system based on climate and water dynamics from satellite and ground stations is necessary to improve understanding of the problem for timing response of climatic change negative impacts.

The Variability of the Size Distributions of Submicron Particles in the Oceans

AbstractThe size distribution of submicron particles is essential for understanding their biogeochemical and optical roles, but it has seldom been measured. This study utilizes ViewSizer 3000, an instrument that tracks Brownian motions of particles, to measure the particle size distributions (PSD) from 250 to 1,050 nm in the North Pacific Ocean (NP) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) at depths from 5 to 500 m. The concentration of particles varies over one order of magnitude at any given size bin, with greater variations up to two orders of magnitude at sizes >600 nm. In both locations, concentrations decrease with depth. Bacterioplankton are a dominant component, accounting for 65%–90% of the submicron particles in the surface waters (<100 m) and approximately 30%–40% at depths >150 m at both sites. In the NP, the volume mean diameter increased approximately 5% from the morning to noon at the surface, probably resulting from the diurnal growth of bacterioplankton. In the NA, the concentration and mean size increased by >60% and ∼10% respectively after one storm that introduced a different particle population into the study area.

Juvenile coho salmon growth differences track biennial pink salmon spawning patterns

Abstract Spawning Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) provide marine‐derived resources (MDR) to freshwater food webs in the form of eggs, flesh and maggots that consume salmon carcasses, all of which positively impact stream‐dwelling fish growth. Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) are widely distributed throughout coastal catchments along the North Pacific Ocean and display increased spawning abundances in odd years, owing to a fixed 2‐year life history. While many studies have found that foraging and growth of stream‐dwelling salmonids are improved by increased adult salmon spawning abundance, few studies have investigated the importance of alternating pink salmon spawning abundance between years. Here, we examined how patterns of pink salmon spawning abundance impact the foraging and growth of juvenile coho salmon (O. kisutch). First, we used bioenergetic simulations to generate a hypothesis that coho salmon growth would increase during odd relative to even years. We then collected empirical juvenile coho salmon diet and growth data from a Southeast Alaska catchment in 2021 (pink salmon spawning) and 2022 (no pink salmon spawning). Field data were compared against simulation predictions to understand impacts of biennial pink salmon spawning patterns on juvenile coho salmon growth. Empirical growth data revealed similar patterns to bioenergetic simulations. Age‐1 coho salmon grew 16.6 mm longer and 5.5 g heavier on average in 2021 compared to 2022. Age‐0 coho salmon displayed minor growth differences between years. These results support bioenergetic model predictions and suggest that patterns of pink salmon spawning abundance can impart interannual growth disparities to juvenile coho salmon. Moreover, we show that distinct spawning characteristics of Pacific salmon species are important when understanding patterns of MDR transfer and growth responses in stream fishes.

A hybrid approach for skillful multiseasonal prediction of winter North Pacific blocking

Wintertime atmospheric blocking often brings adverse environmental and socioeconomic impacts through its accompanying temperature and precipitation extremes. However, due to the chaotic nature of the extratropical atmospheric circulation and the challenges in simulating blocking, the skillful seasonal prediction of blocking remains elusive. In this study, we leverage both observational data and seasonal hindcasts from a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system to investigate the prediction skill of North Pacific wintertime blocking frequency and its linkage to downstream cold extremes. The observational results show that North Pacific blocking has a local maximum over the central North Pacific Ocean and that the occurrence of North Pacific blocking drives significant cold anomalies over northwestern North America within a week, which are both well reproduced by the model. The model skillfully predicts the western North Pacific blocking frequency near the subtropical jet exit region at the shortest forecast lead, but skill drops off rapidly with lead time partly due to model drift in the background flow. To overcome this rapid drop in skill, we develop a linear hybrid dynamical-statistical model that uses the forecasted Niño 3.4 index and upstream precipitation as predictors and that maintains significant forecast skill of high-latitude North Pacific blocking up to 7 lead months in advance. Our results indicate that an improvement in the seasonal prediction skill of winter North Pacific blocking frequency may be achieved by the enhanced representation of the links among sea surface temperature anomalies, tropical convection, and the ensuing tropical-extratropical interaction that initiates North Pacific blocking.

Multiple-step accurate prediction of wave energy: A hybrid model based on quadratic decomposition, SSA and LSTM

ABSTRACT Accurate and efficient prediction of wave energy flux (WEF) holds significant engineering value. However, the inherently non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of WEF pose a formidable challenge to forecasting efforts. A novel hybrid model for WEF prediction was proposed, which integrated efficient modal decomposition and fusion strategies, employs long short-term memory neural networks (LSTM) for forecasting, and utilizes the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) for overall optimization. First, the WEF sequences were pre-processed using complete ensemble empirical modal decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to reduce their complexity. Second, the mid-frequency and low-frequency sequences after sample entropy (SE) reconstruction were used for prediction, while the high-frequency sequences needed to undergo quadratic decomposition before being applied to the prediction. Third, SSA was employed to optimize the prediction model for higher performance. At last, the three predictions obtained are merged into the final prediction of the WEF. Experiments were carried out for one-step, three-step, and six-step predictions using the two buoy station data in the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The results indicated that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy, with the lowest MAE of 0.6348, 0.8694, 2.4579 and the highest R 2 of 0.9985, 0.9953, 0.9770, respectively. Therefore, this study provides an effective prediction tool for engineering applications of wave energy.

You Shall Not Pass: The Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone Creates a Boundary to Shortfin Mako Shark Distribution in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean

ABSTRACTAimShoaling of large oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) that form along eastern margins of the world's oceans can reduce habitat availability for some pelagic fishes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that habitat compression caused by shoaling of the Pacific OMZ in tropical regions creates a boundary to the southern distribution of shortfin mako sharks (Isurus oxyrinchus) in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.LocationEastern North Pacific and Western North Atlantic oceans.MethodsWe compared environmental conditions between areas used by satellite‐tagged mako sharks in the Eastern North Pacific, encompassing the world's largest OMZ, to those used in the Western North Atlantic where no OMZ is present. In the Pacific we quantified the effects of temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) on depth use and tested if sharks spent less time in areas with strong habitat compression over the OMZ than expected by chance.ResultsThe southern distribution of sharks in the Pacific corresponded with the apex of OMZ shoaling in the North Equatorial Current. Sharks in the Atlantic occupied areas with warm surface temperatures (≥ 26°C) more often than the Pacific, and waters with these temperatures in the Atlantic had greater DO at depth. Sharks in the Pacific reduced time near the surface in warm temperatures and consistently avoided depths with low DO and spent less time in areas with strong habitat compression than expected by chance.Main ConclusionsThe combination of warm surface temperatures and shoaling of the OMZ creates a soft boundary to mako shark movements in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The expected expansion of OMZs due to climate change could have considerable impact on future distribution of mako sharks and other pelagic fish. As such, development of species distribution models to predict the effects of climate change on pelagic fish distributions should incorporate oxygen availability.

Size fractionation informs microbial community composition and interactions in the eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean

Abstract Marine microorganisms are drivers of biogeochemical cycles in the world's oceans, including oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Using a metabarcoding survey of the 16S rRNA gene, we investigated prokaryotic communities, as well as their potential interactions with fungi, at the coastal, offshore, and peripheral OMZ of the eastern tropical North Pacific. Water samples were collected along a vertical oxygen gradient, and large volumes were filtered through three size fractions, 0.22 μm, 2 μm, and 22 μm. The changes in community composition along the oxygen gradient were driven by Planctomycetota, Bacteroidota, Verrucomicrobiota, and Gammaproteobacteria; most are known degraders of marine polysaccharides and usually associated with the large particle-associated community. The relative abundance of Nitrososphaerota, Alphaproteobacteria, Actinomycetota, and Nitrospinota were high in free-living and small particle-associated communities. Network analyses identified putative interactions between fungi and prokaryotes in the particle-associated fractions, which have been largely overlooked in the ocean. In the small particle-associated network analysis, fungal ASVs had exclusively negative connections with SAR11 nodes. In the large particle-associated network analysis, fungal ASVs displayed both negative and positive connections with Pseudomonadota, SAR324, and Thermoplasmatota. Our findings demonstrate the utility of three-stage size-fractioned filtration in providing novel insights into marine microbial ecology.

Spatiotemporal weighted neural network reveals surface seawater pCO2 distributions and underlying environmental mechanisms in the North Pacific Ocean

The North Pacific Ocean plays a pivotal role as a carbon sink within the global carbon cycle. However, a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon dioxide concentration and its determinants in this domain remains elusive due to its vast dimensions and the intricacies of influencing factors, with previous research on carbon dioxide partial pressure in the North Pacific Ocean also being relatively scarce. While prevalent machine learning methodologies have been extensively applied to predict the partial pressure of ocean carbon dioxide (pCO2), their limited interpretability has impeded substantial progress in elucidating the underlying mechanisms. This study introduces a gridded spatiotemporal neural network weighted regression (GSTNNWR) model to illuminate temporal and spatial relationships among relevant environmental variables and pCO2. The GSTNNWR model achieves high-precision and high-resolution forecasts of surface pCO2 in the North Pacific Ocean, demonstrating commendable performance (R2 = 0.863 and RMSE=15.123 µatm). Simultaneously, we obtain a quantitative characterization of how various environmental factors influence pCO2 across different temporal and spatial scales. Results show a dominant positive effect of temperature on the pCO2, with an averaged normalized coefficient of 0.28, and variability in the effects of chlorophyll and salinity on the pCO2 at different spatial and temporal locations and temperatures, whose average normalized coefficients are −0.10 and −0.04.The findings of our study will provide insights into the mechanisms and interactions within the North Pacific carbon cycle, contributing to a better understanding of ocean carbon sink formation and the dynamic regulation of the North Pacific carbon cycle.

Tropical Cyclones in the GEOS-S2S-2 Subseasonal Forecasts

Abstract This paper analyzes the climatology, prediction skill, and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system version 2. GEOS reasonably simulates the number and spatial distribution of TCs compared to observations except in the Atlantic where the model simulates too few TCs due to low genesis rates in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The environmental conditions, diagnosed through a genesis potential index, do not clearly explain model biases in the genesis rates, especially in the Atlantic. At the storm scale, GEOS reforecasts replicate several key aspects of the thermodynamic and dynamic structures of observed TCs, such as a warm core and the secondary circulation. The model, however, fails to simulate an off-center eyewall when evaluating vertical velocity, precipitation, and moisture. The analysis of the prediction skill of TC genesis and occurrence shows that GEOS has comparable skill to other global models in WMO S2S archive and that its skill could be further improved by increasing the ensemble size. After calibration, GEOS forecasts are skillful in the western North Pacific and southern Indian Ocean up to 20 days in advance. A model-based predictability analysis demonstrates the importance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) as a source of predictability of TC occurrence beyond the 14-day lead time. Forecasts initialized under strong MJO conditions show evidence of predictability beyond week 3. However, due to model biases in the forecast distribution, there are notable gaps between the MJO-related prediction skill and predictability, which require further study.

Evolution of West‐East Contrast in the Subarctic Pacific Gyre During the Plio‐Pleistocene Based on Palynological Evidence at ODP Sites 882 and 887

AbstractFragmentary and contradictory evidence prevents a clear understanding of the possible role of the North Pacific Ocean surface on the ice‐sheet evolution. New palynological data encompassing the Pliocene and Pleistocene at Ocean Drilling Program Site 882 in the northwest Pacific document sea‐surface conditions from dinoflagellate cysts in addition to atmospheric trajectories from pollen grains and spores. The comparison of the Site 882 record with that of Site 887 from the northeast Pacific also permits documenting West to East contrasts across the subarctic North Pacific. The dinocyst assemblages at the two sites indicate strong temperature contrasts until 4.2 Ma, with much warmer conditions in the East. From 4.2 to 3.6 Ma, dinocyst assemblages of both sites are characterized by alternated dominance of the extinct taxa Habibacysta tectata and Impagidinium detroitense suggesting homogenous and cool conditions across the subarctic Pacific gyre. A major transition is recorded in the palynological assemblages at Site 882 around 2.7 Ma. It is marked by the highest occurrence of Habibacysta tectata and high percentages of Filisphaera microornata additionally to thermophilic taxa. Dinocyst record indicates high seasonality and warmer surface conditions due to reinforced stratification, which support the hypothesis of high evaporation at the origin of atmospheric moisture supply to high latitudes. During the last 1.2 Ma, the increase of Operculodinium centrocarpum relative to Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus is tentatively interpreted as a reinforced influence of the subtropical waters. Hence, we suggest that the warm surface ocean fostered the inception and growth of northwestern North American ice‐sheets during the Pliocene and Pleistocene.

Distributions of exotic herbaceous species along a roadside on Chichijima, the Ogasawara Islands, and their relationship with human disturbance

AbstractOceanic islands are a major tourist destination, and the invasion of exotic plants on oceanic islands is a serious problem. To discuss how exotic herbaceous plant invasion is driven by human disturbance on an oceanic island, we assessed the distribution patterns of exotic herbaceous species along a metropolitan road, including parking lots, on the island of Chichijima in the Ogasawara Islands of Japan in the North Pacific Ocean. We observed 16 exotic herbaceous species representing seven families, and all the species have also been recorded in surveys 25 years ago. Species richness (number of species per plot) ranged from 0 to 9 with an average of 2.49. Distance from a parking lot was significantly negatively related to the distribution patterns of seven species and positively related to three species, pointing to parking lots being critical nodes along the dispersal pathways of exotic herbaceous species in Chichijima. Although roads are well known to play an important role as corridors for the invasion and seed dispersal of exotic plants, our results suggest that it would also be important to consider the location of parking lots to understand the distribution of exotic herbaceous species in road networks. We suggest that intensive weed management near parking lots and car wash protocols on Chichijima may be effective in halting exotic species spread.