North Pacific Mode Research Articles

Midwinter Reversal of the Atmospheric Anomalies Caused by the North Pacific Mode‐Related Air‐Sea Coupling

AbstractSea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) modes are considered as primary sources of climate variabilities on various timescales. The North Pacific Mode (NPM), an El Niño‐Southern Oscillation‐independent, principal interannual SSTA mode in the midlatitude North Pacific during wintertime, can have a significant climate impact over the adjacent areas. However, the air‐sea coupling processes associated with NPM remain unclear, which are identified in this study. The NPM‐related SSTA develops in early winter, matures in midwinter, but decays in late winter, while the associated atmospheric anomalies exhibit a dramatic midwinter reversal. The SSTA development is forced by the atmosphere in early winter and then feedbacks upon the atmosphere through diabatic heating and transient eddy forcing, inducing a midwinter reversal of whole‐layer atmospheric anomalies. Therefore, the NPM is an atmosphere‐forced, air‐sea coupled damping mode through which, however, the ocean provides a memory mechanism responsible for how the preceding atmospheric anomaly can have a cross‐season, subsequent impact.

The pacific decadal precession and its relationship to tropical pacific decadal variability in CMIP6 models

Persistent, multi-year shifts in atmospheric circulations and their associated influence on regional climates have profound impacts on physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. The Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP), an atmospheric mode of variability consisting of a lower tropospheric height dipole which rotates counterclockwise over several years in the North Pacific, describes a series of such shifts in atmospheric circulations. One phase of the PDP, the north-south (N-S) phase, is hypothesized to be partially driven by central tropical Pacific (CP) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but robust assessment of this dynamical connection in climate models remains to be done. In this study, we investigate this hypothesis with analyses in both reanalysis and selected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. We show that the emergence of the N-S phase is both related to and influenced by tropical Pacific decadal SST variability, specifically variability associated with CP El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. When examining the pre-industrial runs of the CMIP6 models, we find that most models cannot recover the characteristic cyclonic precession of the dipoles of the PDP, instead featuring only amplitude and sign changes of the N-S phase, Moreover, the models do not replicate the dynamical connections between the tropical Pacific and this North Pacific mode of climate variability. Our results suggest that primary reasons for this inconsistency are that models inaccurately simulate both the SST pattern associated with the PDP, shared low-frequency power associated with CP ENSO events, and incorrect Rossby wavetrains emanating from the tropical Pacific into the North Pacific on quasi-decadal timescales. Taken together, our analyses offer another benchmark by which to test the fidelity of the climate model simulations in capturing Pacific decadal climate variability in order to improve decadal-to-centennial climate projections.

Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies as important boundary forcing in driving the interannual Warm Arctic-Cold Continent pattern over the North American sector

AbstractThe leading interannual mode of winter surface air temperature over the North American (NA) sector, characterized by a “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” (WACC) pattern, exerts pronounced influences on NA weather and climate, while its underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this study, the relative roles of surface boundary forcing versus internal atmospheric processes for the formation of the WACC pattern are quantitatively investigated using a combined analysis of observations and large-ensemble atmospheric global climate model simulations. Internal atmospheric variability is found to play an important role in shaping the year-to-year WACC variability, contributing to about half of the total variance. An anomalous SST pattern resembling the North Pacific Mode is identified as a major surface boundary forcing pattern in driving the interannual WACC variability over the NA sector, with a minor contribution from sea ice variability over the Chukchi- Bering Seas. Findings from this study not only lead to improved understanding of underlying physics regulating the interannual WACC variability, but also provide important guidance for improved modeling and prediction of regional climate variability over NA and the Arctic region.

A historical record of the impact of nuclear activities based on 129I in coral cores in Baler, Philippines: An update

In a previous study in 2016, we presented how 129I in coral cores from the east (Baler) and west (Parola) sides of the Philippines recorded the impacts of human nuclear activities, including nuclear weapons testing, nuclear fuel reprocessing, and nuclear accidents. However, the 2016 Baler dataset only had a two-year time resolution and a crude age model based on growth band counting. Here we present a new 2020 Baler 129I/127I atomic ratio dataset that features at least annual time resolution and a more accurate age model constructed using 3D X-ray Computed Tomography. Results show that the bomb peaks in Baler primarily came from the Pacific Proving Grounds or PPG with a time lag of about 1.8 years (or more specifically, between 1.3 and 2.4 years). Moreover, a review of the Parola dataset shows that PPG signals may have been transported to Parola in the West Philippine Sea via two pathways: the northward and southward bifurcations of the North Equatorial Current, reaching Parola about 4.5 and 8.5 years after detonation, respectively. Moreover, a prominent peak in the year 2014.7 in Baler possibly came from the 2011 Fukushima Accident, transported by the Kuroshio Recirculation Gyre and the North Pacific Mode Waters with a 3.5-year time lag. This study contributes to the understanding of the impact and transport of human-made radionuclides to the Philippines and the relevant oceanographic processes in the Western Equatorial Pacific region.

A Fukushima tracer perspective on four years of North Pacific mode water evolution

We present the results of a multi-platform investigation that utilizes tracer information provided by the 2011 release of radioisotopes from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to better understand the pathways, mixing and transport of mode waters formed in the North Pacific Ocean. The focus is on transition region mode waters and radiocesium (137Cs and 134Cs) observations obtained from the May–June 2015 GO-SHIP occupation of the 152°W line in the Northeast Pacific. Samples include profiles from the surface to 1000 m and surface/subsurface pairs that provide an average 1° of latitude spacing along 152°W. We find a clear Fukushima (134Cs) signal from the surface to 400 m. The core signal (134Cs ∼10 Bq m-3, 137Cs ∼12 Bq m-3) at 41°-43°N lies at 30–220 m where mode waters formed through deep winter mixing in 2011 outcropped in the western North Pacific. The strongest 2015 152°W Fukushima-source radiocesium signal is associated with Dense-Central Mode Waters consistent with the densest variety of these mode waters being formed off the coast of Japan 4 years earlier. The radionuclide signal transited the basin along subsurface mode water isopycnals mainly on the northern side of the subtropical gyre before outcropping at and to the east of the 152°W line. In 2015, the densest 152°W waters with 134Cs lie at ∼435 m in the bottom range of Dense-Central Mode Water at 40°N. There is a weak, but detectable, signal in the boundary current off both Kodiak and Sitka. The deepest detectable 137Cs (weapon's testing background) are found at and to the north of 45°N at 900–1000 m. With the exception of a single subsurface sample near Hawaii, as of spring 2015, the southernmost 134Cs was found above 200 m at 30°N. A total date-corrected 134Cs inventory of 11–16 PBq is estimated. Qualitative comparison to model output suggests good consistency in terms of general location, latitudinal breadth, and predicted depth of penetration, allowing discussion of the bigger picture. However, the model's 2015 152°W radiocesium signal is quantitatively weaker and the core is offset in latitude, potentially due to the lack of consideration of atmospheric deposition.

Combined Influences on North American Winter Air Temperature Variability from North Pacific Blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Subseasonal and Interannual Time Scales

AbstractWinter surface air temperature (SAT) over North America exhibits pronounced variability on subseasonal, interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales. Here, reanalysis data from 1950–2017 are analyzed to investigate the atmospheric and surface ocean conditions associated with its subseasonal to interannual variability. Detrended daily SAT data reveal a known warm west/cold east (WWCE) dipole over midlatitude North America and a cold north/warm south (CNWS) dipole over eastern North America. It is found that while the North Pacific blocking (PB) is important for the WWCE and CNWS dipoles, they also depend on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When a negative-phase NAO (NAO−) coincides with PB, the WWCE dipole is enhanced (compared with the PB alone case) and it also leads to a warm north/cold south dipole anomaly in eastern North America; but when PB occurs with a positive-phase NAO (NAO+), the WWCE dipole weakens and the CNWS dipole is enhanced. The PB events concurrent with the NAO− (NAO+) and SAT WWCE (CNWS) dipole are favored by the Pacific El Niño–like (La Niña–like) sea surface temperature mode and the positive (negative) North Pacific mode. The PB-NAO+ has a larger component projecting onto the SAT WWCE dipole during the La Niña winter than during the El Niño winter because a more zonal wave train is formed. Strong North American SAT WWCE dipoles and enhanced projections of PB-NAO+ events onto the SAT WWCE dipole component are also readily seen for the positive North Pacific mode. The North Pacific mode seems to play a bigger role in the North American SAT variability than ENSO.

North Pacific subtropical mode water is controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

North Pacific subtropical mode water, a vertically homogeneous thermocline water mass, occupies the entire subtropical Western Pacific Ocean. It transports mass, heat and nutrients from the surface to the subsurface ocean, providing memory of climate variability1–11. Decadal variability of the mode water temperature has been attributed to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)2,3,12,13, but this is based on short data records. Here, using long records of observations, we show that decadal-to-multidecadal variability of the mode water mean temperature is instead controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). During an AMV-positive phase, warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic Ocean weaken the subtropical North Pacific westerlies; the associated anomalous easterlies in the subtropical west Pacific4,5 drive a northward Ekman transport of warm water to the mode water formation area. Subduction of the warm water increases mode water temperature, influencing Northwestern Pacific upper ocean heat content and fish catches. A long pre-industrial model simulation with multiple AMV cycles and a pacemaker experiment support this mechanism—the AMV forcing alone can drive decadal variability of the mode water. Thus, the AMV provides important memory for prediction of decadal climate and ecosystem variability in the Pacific Ocean. North Pacific mode water controls extratropical-to-tropical heat and mass exchange. Analysis and model simulations show that decadal temperature variations in this subtropical North West Pacific water mass are forced remotely by Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.

Seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track variability in Project Minerva

The seasonal prediction skill and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere storm track anomalies in boreal winter (December–January–February, DJF) is examined using seasonal ensemble reforecasts for 1982–2009 from the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System at two different atmospheric resolutions in Project Minerva. It is found that the predictable signals of storm track variations are associated with the two leading EOF modes of ensemble-averaged DJF variances of the high-pass filtered daily meridional winds at 250-hPa level derived from each of the hindcast ensemble members. These two EOF modes are highly correlated both temporarily and spatially between two sets of reforecasts. The first mode (EOF1) mainly shows a latitudinal shift of the storm tracks over the central-eastern North Pacific and the North America continent. The second mode (EOF2) is primarily the pulsing signal exerting on the mean storm track background of the North Pacific. The model predictive skill is verified against observations. The first mode has higher prediction skills and larger skillful regions than the second one. In particular, the first predictable mode is generated by the ENSO-induced wave train, starting from tropical central Pacific and propagating to North America. The skillful region lies in the North Pacific to the west of California, corresponding to the southern lobe of EOF1. The second predictable mode is generated by the North Pacific Mode, which evokes a distinctive wave train, emanating from the tropical western Pacific and propagating northeastward. Its skillful region of the storm track prediction is confined to a small area of Canada western coastlines.

Multidecadal Fluctuation of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Pattern and Its Implication

The multidecadal fluctuations in the patterns and teleconnections of the winter mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) are investigated based on observational and reanalysis datasets. Results show that the Atlantic center of the AO pattern remains unchanged throughout the period 1920–2010, whereas the Pacific center of the AO is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. Consequently, the link between the AO and the surface air temperature over western North America is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. The time-varying Pacific center of the AO motivates a revisit to the nature of the AO from the perspective of decadal change. It reveals that the North Pacific mode (NPM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the inherent regional atmospheric modes over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Their patterns over the North Pacific and North Atlantic remain stable and change little with time during 1920–2010. The Atlantic center of the AO always resembles the NAO over the North Atlantic, but the Pacific center of the AO only resembles the NPM over the North Pacific when the NPM–NAO coupling is strong. These results suggest that the AO seems to be fundamentally rooted in the variability over the North Atlantic and that the annular structure of the AO very likely arises from the coupling of the atmospheric modes between the North Pacific and North Atlantic.

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

AbstractDuring the first quarter of 2015 the United States experienced a widespread and extended episode of low surface wind speeds. This episode had a strong impact on wind power generation. Some wind farms did not generate enough cash for their steady payments, and the value of some assets decreased. Although the wind industry expressed their concerns, the episode has not received much attention from the scientific community and remains weakly understood. In this paper we aim to fill this gap and advance understanding of the underlying processes at seasonal time scales. Using retrospective climate predictions, we find that high sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific ocean associated with a strongly positive phase of the North Pacific Mode played a central role to establish and maintain those wind anomalies. In a more general way it has also been shown that interannual variability of wind speed over North America is not only dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation but also by other sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific. This new knowledge can be useful for industry stakeholders to anticipate future periods of low wind speed.

What drove the Pacific and North America climate anomalies in winter 2014/15?

In late 2014 and early 2015, the canonical atmospheric response to the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was not observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, although Nino3.4 index exceeded the threshold for a weak El Nino. In an effort to understand why it was so, this study deconvoluted the observed 2014/15 December–January–February (DJF) mean sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation and 200 hPa stream function anomalies into the leading patterns related to the principal components of DJF SST variability. It is noted that the anomalies of these variables were primarily determined by the patterns related to two SST modes: one is the North Pacific mode (NPM), and the other the ENSO mode. The NPM was responsible for the apparent lack of coupled air–sea relationship in the central equatorial Pacific and the east–west structure of the circulation anomalies over North America, while the ENSO mode linked to SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as well as the circulation in the central equatorial Pacific. Further, the ENSO signal in DJF 2014/15 likely evolved from the NPM pattern in winter 2013/14. Its full development, however, was impeded by the easterly anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific that was associated with negative SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Pacific. In addition, the analyses also indicates that the SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region alone were not adequate for capturing the coupling of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific, due to the fact that this index cannot distinguish whether the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region is associated with the ENSO mode or NPM, or both.

Impacts of Storm-Track Variations on Wintertime Extreme Weather Events over the Continental United States

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for many of the high-impact weather events over the United States, including extreme cold, extreme high wind, and extreme heavy precipitation. In this study, impacts from the variations of the cyclone (or storm-track) activity on these extreme events are examined through composites based on map-averaged cyclone activity. Increased cyclone activity enhances the frequency of extreme cold and high wind events over much of the United States, and impacts extreme precipitation around the Ohio River valley. These impacts are largely due to a changing of the tail of the distribution rather than a shifting of the mean. To systematically study these impacts, three singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses have been conducted, each one between the cyclone activity and one kind of extreme event frequency. All three SVD leading modes represent a pattern of overall increase or decrease of storm tracks over the United States. The average of the time series of these leading modes is highly correlated with the observed map-averaged storm track and strongly associated with the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, composites based on either the PNA pattern or ENSO do not show as strong impacts as the map-averaged storm track. A second common SVD mode is found that correlates weakly with the North Pacific mode and is likely to be largely due to internal variability. Finally, the potential impacts of projected storm-track change on the frequency of extreme events are examined, indicating that the projected storm-track decrease over North America may give rise to some reduction in the frequency of extreme events.

Biases of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models

Distinct biases are found in the pattern and teleconnections of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in 32 climate models that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with observations, the Pacific (Atlantic) center of AO is excessively strong (weak) in most of the 32 CMIP5 models, and the AO-related surface air temperature anomalies are generally weak over the Eurasian continent and North America. These biases are closely tied to the excessively strong linkage, which is marginal in observations, between AO and the North Pacific mode (NPM)—the leading variability of the North Pacific sea level pressure. It implies that the AO in CMIP5 models may be compounded with some regional mode over the North Pacific. Accordingly, a bias-correction method was proposed via correcting the AO index (AOI) to improve the diagnostic estimates of the AO teleconnections. The results suggest that the biases in the pattern and teleconnections of AO can be significantly reduced when the NPM variability is linearly removed from the AOI.

Mesoscale eddy effects on the subduction of North Pacific mode waters

AbstractMesoscale eddy effects on the subduction of North Pacific mode waters are investigated by comparing observations and ocean general circulation models where eddies are either parameterized or resolved. The eddy‐resolving models produce results closer to observations than the noneddy‐resolving model. There are large discrepancies in subduction patterns between eddy‐resolving and noneddy‐resolving models. In the noneddy‐resolving model, subduction on a given isopycnal is limited to the cross point between the mixed layer depth (MLD) front and the outcrop line whereas in eddy‐resolving models and observations, subduction takes place in a broader, zonally elongated band within the deep mixed layer region. Mesoscale eddies significantly enhance the total subduction rate, helping create remarkable peaks in the volume histogram that correspond to North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) and central mode water (CMW). Eddy‐enhanced subduction preferentially occurs south of the winter mean outcrop. With an anticyclonic eddy to the west and a cyclonic eddy to the east, the outcrop line meanders south, and the thermocline/MLD shoals eastward. As eddies propagate westward, the MLD shoals, shielding the water of low potential vorticity from the atmosphere. The southward eddy flow then carries the subducted water mass into the thermocline. The eddy subduction processes revealed here have important implications for designing field observations and improving models.

Precessional forced extratropical North Pacific mode and associated atmospheric dynamics

AbstractUsing transient accelerated simulations of the Community Climate System Model version 3 and an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity as well as equilibrium experiments of the Community Earth System Model, we identified a response of the extratropical air‐ocean coupled system to the precessional insolation changes at orbital timescales and named this extratropical response pattern as the North Pacific mode (NPM). Corresponding to the increased/decreased boreal winter/summer insolation at 22 ka (relative to 10–8 ka), the NPM is characterized by a western warm‐eastern cold seesaw pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) over the extratropical North Pacific from November to April, a weakened winter Aleutian low and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation throughout the troposphere. This feature forms a barotropic warm‐ridge response of tropospheric temperature and geopotential height to the precessional insolation. At the surface, rainfall increases over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific, which indicates a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, while drier conditions appear over the Northeast Pacific and the western coasts of North America. Associated with a negative phase of NPM is a weaker warming over the equatorial Pacific during winter. The increased winter insolation at precessional band not only induces the in‐phase SST warming over the Northwest Pacific and the tropical Pacific, but also explains those extratropical atmospheric changes associated with NPM. The latter might be associated with the warm SST‐induced tropospheric downstream ridge response through transient eddy activities. Besides the vital role of air‐ocean interactions, the decreased summer insolation is also essential to the zonal SST seesaw of NPM at precessional band.

Prediction of global patterns of dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Daily output from the hindcasts by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand the skill of forecasting atmospheric variability on quasi-biweekly (QBW) time scale. Eight dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) modes identified by the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are focused. In the CFSv2, QBW variability exhibits a significant weakening tendency with lead time for all seasons. For most QBWO modes, the variance drops to only 50 % of the initial value at lead time of 11–15 days. QBW variability has better prediction skill in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Skillful forecast can reach about 10–15 days for most modes but those in the winter hemisphere have better forecast skills. Among the eight QBWO modes, the North Pacific mode and the South Pacific (SP) mode have the highest forecast skills while the Asia–Pacific mode and the Central American mode have the lowest skills. For the Asia–Pacific and Central American modes, the forecasted QBWO phase shows an obvious eastward shift with increase in lead time compared to observations, indicating a smaller propagating speed. However, the predicted feature for the SP mode is more realistic. Air–sea coupling on the QBW time scale is perhaps responsible for the different prediction skills for different QBWO modes. In addition, most QBWO modes have better forecasting skills in El Nino years than in La Nina years. Different dynamical mechanisms for various QBWO modes may be partially responsible for the differences in prediction skill among different QBWO modes.

Fast and slow responses of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to global warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean’s stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forcing is stabilized.

Assessing Atmospheric Response to Surface Forcing in the Observations. Part I: Cross Validation of Annual Response Using GEFA, LIM, and FDT

Abstract Three statistic methods [generalized equilibrium feedback analysis (GEFA), linear inverse modeling (LIM), and fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT)] are compared for their assessment of the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature variability in the coupled climate system with a sample length comparable with the observations (decades). The comparison is made first in an idealized coupled model and then in the observations. For daily to pentad data, for a linear stochastic system, the simple model study demonstrates that all three methods are able to provide a consistent assessment of the atmospheric response. For monthly data, GEFA is able to produce an assessment comparable with the daily or pentad assessments using the three methods. The consistence of the three methods is further confirmed in the observations for the responses of the atmospheric geopotential height (at 200 hPa) to the tropical ENSO mode and the North Pacific mode. It is found that the three methods produce a consistent response with the overall pattern correlation over 0.95 and the amplitude difference within 10%–20%. The consistent results in both the simple model and the observations suggest that the three statistical methods can be used as a cross validation on the robustness of the assessment of the atmospheric response to surface forcing in the observations.

Revisited relationship between tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations

The relationship between the tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations is reexamined following the results of Deser and Blackmon (1995, DB95) based on a much longer period of data (1949–2010). As in DB95, the two leading SST modes, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode and the North Pacific mode, represent the SST variations in the Pacific domain before 1992. Considering the period after 1992, however, one needs to consider a new mode of SST variation along with the two modes mentioned to understand the relationship between the tropical and North Pacific SST variations. A new SST mode, known as the Warm Pool mode, exhibits a strong variance in the warm pool region and undergoes a phase shift after the mid‐1990s, reflecting a warming in the warm pool region and a cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is found that the Warm Pool mode accompanies the North Pacific Oscillation‐like atmospheric variability over the North Pacific. Through this teleconnection, the Warm Pool mode mostly shows a relationship between the warm pool SST and the associated North Pacific SST component and which has some similarities with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation.

Variability of subduction rates of the subtropical North Pacific mode waters

The climatology subduction rate for the entire Pacific is known, but the mechanism of interannual to decadal variation remains unclear. In this study, we calculated the annual subduction rates of three types of North Pacific subtropical mode waters using a general circulation model (LICOM1.0) for the period of 1958–2001. The model experiments focused on interannual variations of ocean dynamical processes under daily wind forcings and seasonal heat fluxes. The mode water formation region was defined by a potential vorticity minimum at outcrop locations. The model results show that two subduction rate maxima (>100 m/a) were located in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the Central Mode Water (CMW) formation regions. These regions are consistent with a climatologically calculated value. The subduction rate in the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) formation region was smaller at about 75 m/a. The subduction rate shows clear interannual and decadal variations associated with oceanic dynamic variabilities. The average subduction rate of the STMW was much smaller during the period of 1981–1990 compared with other periods, while that of the CMW had a negative anomaly before 1975 and a positive anomaly after 1978. The variability agreed with Ekman and geostrophic advections and mixed layer depths. The interannual variability of the subduction rate for the ESTMW was smallest during 1970–1990, as a result of a weak wind stress curl. This paper explores how interannual signals from the atmosphere are stored in different parts of the ocean, and thus may contribute to a better understanding of feedback mechanisms for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) event.