Northeast Region Research Articles

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies with Ecological Sensitivity to Delineate Ecological Functional Zones: A Case Study in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Buffer Area, China

Enhancing regional ecosystem stability and managing land resources effectively requires identifying ecological function zones and understanding the factors that influence them. However, most current studies have primarily focused on ecosystem service bundles, paying less attention to the trade-offs, synergies, and ecological sensitivity, leading to a more uniform approach to functional zoning. This study aimed to analyze and describe the spatial and temporal patterns of four essential ecosystem services, including water yield (WY), net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ), in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer area over the period from 2005 to 2019. Spatial overlay analysis was used to assess ecological sensitivity, trade-offs, synergies, and ecosystem service bundles to define ecological functional zones. Geographic detectors were then applied to identify the primary drivers of spatial variation in these zones. The findings showed a progressive improvement in ecosystem service functions within the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer zone. Between 2005 and 2019, NPP, soil conservation, and water yield all demonstrated positive trends, while HQ displayed a declining trend. There was significant spatial heterogeneity and distinct regional patterns in ecosystem service functions, with a general decrease from southwest to northeast, particularly in NPP and HQ. Trade-offs were evident in most ecosystem services, with the most significant between WY and HQ and most in the northeast and east regions. Ecological sensitivity decreased from southwest to northeast. Regions with a higher ecological sensitivity were primarily situated in the southwestern region, and their spatial distribution pattern was comparable to that of high habitat quality. The spatial overlay analysis categorized areas into various types, including human production and settlement zones, ecologically vulnerable zones, ecological transition zones, and ecological conservation zones, accounting for 17.28%, 22.30%, 7.41%, and 53.01% of the total area, respectively. The primary environmental factor affecting ecological function zoning was identified as precipitation, while the main social variables were human activity and population density. This study enhances the understanding of ecological functions and supports sustainable development in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer area, offering important guidance for ecological zoning.

Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting

Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.

Study on the Factors Affecting the Humus Horizon Thickness in the Black Soil Region of Liaoning Province, China

Understanding the spatial variability and driving mechanisms of humus horizon thickness (HHT) degradation is crucial for effective soil degradation prevention in black soil regions. The study compared ordinary kriging interpolation (OK), inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW), and regression kriging interpolation (RK) using mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative RMSE to select the most accurate model. Environmental variables were then integrated to predict HHT characteristics. Results indicate that: (1) RK was superior to OK and IDW in characterizing HHT with the smallest ME (11.45), RMSE (14.98), MAE (11.45), and RRMSE (0.44). (2) The average annual temperature (0.29), precipitation (0.27), and digital elevation model (DEM) (0.21) were the primary factors influencing the spatial variability of HHT. (3) The HHT exhibited notable variability, with an increasing trend from the southeast towards the central and northern directions, being the thinnest in the southeast. It was thicker in the northeast and southwest regions, thicker but less dense along the southern Bohai coast, thicker yet sporadically distributed in the northwest (especially Chaoyang and Fuxin), and thick with aggregated distribution over a smaller area in the northeastern direction (e.g., Tieling). These findings provide a scientific basis for accurate soil management in Liaoning Province.

New Insights into Leishmaniasis in Rabbits Raised in the Northeast Region of Brazil.

This study aimed to investigate the occurrence of leishmaniasis in domestic rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, and to evaluate the associated clinical signs. A total of 31 rabbits from urban and rural areas were clinically examined using cytological, immunological, and serological tests. Blood and cytological samples were collected and analysed for the presence of Leishmania parasites and antibodies. Immunochromatographic tests were used to screen for anti-Leishmania antibodies, and cytological analysis of skin lesions was performed to detect the presence of Leishmania amastigotes. Of the rabbits tested, 19.35% were reactive in the anti-Leishmania antibody screening, and 3.33% tested positive for Leishmania amastigotes in skin lesion cytology. Clinical signs included cachexia, lymphadenomegaly, dehydration, apathy, dermatitis, ophthalmopathy, and alopecia. Cytological analysis revealed pyogranulomatous inflammation with Leishmania amastigotes present. The findings suggest that leishmaniasis is present among domestic rabbits in this region CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the presence of leishmaniasis in domestic rabbits in the Northeast of Brazil. The findings underline the importance of early diagnosis and intervention in preventing the spread of the disease, and highlight the need for further research into the role of rabbits as potential reservoirs of Leishmania.

Regional Differences in Carbon Budgets and Inter-Regional Compensation Zoning: A Case Study of Chongqing, China

Carbon compensation can guide human activities in reducing carbon emissions or increasing carbon sequestration and also represents an important approach for coordinating regional development. In this paper, Chongqing Municipality, whose internal development is varied, was selected as a case study. The annual carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, carbon deficits, and inter-regional carbon compensation costs from 2000 to 2021 were continuously estimated via local optimization methods, and a carbon compensation zoning scheme was proposed that integrates the present situation and trend analysis. The results show that (1) Chongqing’s total carbon emissions were greater than the total carbon sequestration, and the carbon deficit was approximately 556.24 × 104 t~3621.58 × 104 t. (2) County-level carbon budgets have large regional differences; the counties that should always receive carbon compensation are from the southeast and northeast regions, and the counties that should always pay carbon compensation are from central urban areas and the surrounding new urban areas. (3) All the counties were zoned into key payment areas, basic payment areas, key recipient areas, and basic recipient areas. The key payment areas, which account for 39.47%, maintain and grow payment status and are the main sources of carbon compensation costs, while the key recipient areas, which account for 44.74%, maintained a negative compensation status and a continuous downward trend, meaning that they may receive increasing carbon compensation costs. This paper revealed inequities in carbon compensation and proposed a novel zoning solution, which can provide scientific reference and data support for further establishing inter-regional carbon compensation mechanisms.

The focus on addressing vegetation risks in China should shift from the western past to the eastern future

Actively addressing the negative effects of global climate change on vegetation has always been a hot topic of academic concern. How to accurately and comprehensively assess the vegetation risk due to climate change has been rarely reported. By comprehensively considering three dimensions—species structure (species richness), carbon sequestration function (Net Primary Production, NPP), and physiological processes (transpiration)—and based on the prediction of the future distribution characteristics of 3,370 plant species in China, this study quantified the vegetation risk and its driving mechanisms under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The composite index of vegetation risk decreased to the west of the Hu Huanyong Line (NT and QTP regions) but increased to the east (NE and ST regions), with the magnitude of increase growing with the intensification of emission scenarios. In the 2070 s, the proportion of high risk and extremely high-risk areas in the east increased from 14.5 % under SSP126 to 50.0 % under SSP585. NPP and transpiration generally show an increasing trend, and species richness changes similarly to vegetation risk. In the 2070 s under SSP585, 39.2 % of QTP areas see a species richness increase over 50 %, while 33.0 % of ST areas experience a decrease over 30 %. The increase in vegetation risk in the NE region is driven by increased soil moisture, while in the ST region, it is mainly due to decreased runoff and SPEI. Therefore, China should actively respond to the risk of vegetation degradation in the east due to future climate change.

Molecular Epidemiology of Hepatitis D Virus in the North-East Region of Romania.

The hepatitis D virus (HDV) superinfection of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes severe liver damage and the poorest long-term prognosis among viral hepatitis. This is attributed to the unique pathogenic mechanisms of HDV characterized by a direct cytopathic effect on hepatocytes and a significant impairment of the host immune response. The HDV genotype largely influences the extent of the pathogenic mechanisms with consequences on disease progression towards cirrhosis, liver decompensation, or hepatocellular carcinoma. In this context, identifying the circulating HDV genotypes in European regions with high prevalence, such as Romania, is crucial for effectively managing the long-term liver health. Here, we report the first comprehensive HDV study in Romania that clinically characterizes 82 patients and performs HDV genotyping by combining the nested-PCR reaction with sequencing analysis in 49 samples with an HDV-RNA load higher than 5000 IU/mL. While all isolates in our study belong to the HDV-1 genotype, the phylogenetic analysis based on sequence data from GenBank reveals the presence of the following potential three groups: (i) Italy and France; (ii) Spain; and (iii) Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and Germany. This broad clustering highlights the recent surge in migration to and from Western Europe and the Middle East. Equally important, no differences in viral markers, clinical and paraclinical parameters, or treatment options were observed between these identified clusters. Nevertheless, this study considerably advances the understanding of hepatitis D epidemiology and clinical aspects in Romania.

ANALYZING SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES AND FACTORS INVOLVED IN NON-USE OF MODERN CONTRACEPTIVES AMONG YOUNG AND NON-YOUNG MARRIED FEMALES IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM NFHS 2019-21

It has been observed that married women refrain from utilizing contraceptive methods owing to a variety of reasons, including postpartum-amenorrhea, side-effects-worries, rarely or never having sex, no contraception while breastfeeding, or frustration with a particular method. The current study sought to investigate the sociodemographic disparities and contributing factors related to married women who are young (15–24 years old) and non-young (25–49 years old) and who do not utilize contemporary contraceptive methods. The research utilized cross-sectional data obtained from the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) to explore the determinants of contraceptive non-utilization among 175,652 married women in India. Multiple logistic regression analysis was utilized for the examination. The study found that non-young married females (25-49) had a higher prevalence of not using contemporary contraceptives (72%) compared to young married females (45.8%). The majority of non-users were from the central region (24.4%), followed by the east (17.4%), north-east (17.2%), north (15.9%), south (15.2%), and west region (9.9%). The majority of non-users were non-working and had male and female household heads. Most non-users knew about modern contraceptives but were unaware of family planning on radio and TV. Higher odds ratios in the non-use among married females were found significant among central-region females (OR=2.189, CI: 1.815-2.641), East-region (OR=1.324, CI: 1.148-1.527), South-region (OR=1.262, CI: 1.063-1.497), females who don’t know caste (OR=1.898, CI: 1.176-3.062), females having primary (OR=3.466, CI: 2.889-4.157) and secondary education (OR=2.281, CI: 1.890-2.753), females who used since last birth (OR=1.851, CI: 1.658-2.068) and never used (OR=1.632, CI: 1.474-1.806). The study found that economically disadvantaged females, household heads, and those with multiple children are less likely to avoid birth control methods, while marital status, religion, caste, education, and birth order did not have a significant impact on non-usage. The study highlights sociodemographic disparities in contraceptive use, emphasizing the need to address issues like low education, media exposure, and ignorance towards birth-control practices, and recommends immediate actions to reduce non-use among married females.

One Health strategies for the prevention and control of infections by parasites with zoonotic potential in canines and felines from Quilombola communities in the northeast region of Brazil

One Health strategies for the prevention and control of infections by parasites with zoonotic potential in canines and felines from Quilombola communities in the northeast region of Brazil

Decrease in Socioeconomic Disparities in Self-Rated Oral Health among Brazilian Adults between 2013 and 2019: Results from the National Health Survey.

This cross-sectional study assessed the magnitude of inequalities in self-rated oral health (SROH) among different socioeconomic groups in Brazil. Secondary data from interviews with a sample of adults (≥18 years) from the national health survey 2013 (n = 64,308) and 2019 (n = 88,531) were analyzed. Positive SROH was considered when participants selected the good or very good options. Socioeconomic indicators were monthly household income and years of education. The magnitude of inequalities among socioeconomic groups was estimated using the Slope (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Interaction term assessed changes in SII/RII over time. Estimates were adjusted for sex and age. The prevalence of SROH was 67.50% in 2013 and 69.68% in 2019. Individuals with lower socioeconomic indicators had a lower prevalence of positive SROH. Significant reductions in the magnitude of the education-based RII between 2013 (1.58) and 2019 (1.48) in Brazil, as well as in north (1.70; 1.45) and northeast (1.50; 1.41) regions and reduction in the income-based RII in the north (1.71; 1.51) were observed. Socioeconomic inequalities in SROH persist across different Brazilian regions, although there was a reduction in disparities among education groups in 2019 compared with 2013. The findings of this study suggest that equitable Brazilian oral health policies may have contributed to reducing SROH inequality over time.

Exploration of a model driven by climate to simulate pond water temperature in aquaculture systems

IntroductionInterannual climate variability in the Asian mega deltas has been posing a wide range of climate risks in the aquaculture systems of the region. Water temperature variation is one of the key risks related to disease outbreak, fish health, and loss and damage in fish production. However, Climate information can improve the ability to predict changes in pond water quality parameters at the farm level using publicly available weather and climate data. Little research has been done to translate weather data into water temperature forecasts using mechanistic models in order to provide farmers with relevant forecasting information in the context of climate services.MethodsThe advantage of mechanistic models over statistical models is that they are based on physical processes and can therefore be used in a wider range of environmental conditions. In this study, we used an energy balance model to investigate its ability to simulate pond water temperature at daily and seasonal timescales in the southwest and northeast regions of Bangladesh. The model was able to adequately simulate pond water temperature at a daily timescale using publicly available weather data, and the accuracy of the model was lower at the study site with very heavy rainfall events.ResultsSensitivity analyses showed that the model was also able to simulate the impact of air temperature cold and hot spells on the pond water temperature. Connecting the model with seasonal air temperature forecasts resulted in very small variations in the forecasted seasonal pond water temperature, in large part due to the low variability observed in water temperature at seasonal scale in the study sites.DiscussionClimate information can improve the ability to predict changes in pond water quality parameters at the farm level using publicly available weather and climate data. Hence, these improved predictions are important to help fish-farmers make informed decisions for managing associated climate risks.

Description of the first Brazilian species of the genus Malacocis Gorham (Coleoptera: Ciidae)

The genus Malacocis Gorham comprises species characterized by a short and broad body, a pronotum usually narrowed anteriorly, a spinose protibial apex, and a strap-like prosternum with a narrow prosternal process. Currently, it includes two species: the type-species M. championi Gorham, from Guatemala; and M. brevicollis (Casey) from eastern USA and Canada. Here we describe Malacocis pankararu sp. nov. from the Caatinga biome of the Northeast Region of Brazil. The new species is distinguished by its antennae with 10 antennomeres, with the 6th antennomere being wider and more conspicuous than the 5th and 7th. Additionally, males possess two small anterocephalic tubercles, a vertexal sex patch, and a small abdominal sex patch.

Activity of The Resident Population in The North-East Region at the 2021 Census

The present paper starts from the analysis of the first definitive data on the resident and active population, published for the population census of December 1, 2021, both at the level of the North-East Region compared to the national level, and at the component counties. The evolution of the population and the labor force was analyzed with its main component, the employed population, both dynamically compared to the previous census, and in more detail according to different criteria for the situation existing on December 1, 2021. If the NE Region lost 2.29% of its resident population between the last two censuses, the active population decreased in a higher proportion (-19.08%), compared to the dynamics of the inactive population (+12.44%). This led to a decrease of the employed population by 21.95% (-316.4 thousand people). Agriculture remains the main activity of the region's population, representing 35.24% of this activity at the national level and 28% of the total employed population at the regional level. Although it is the largest region numerically, due to the lower degree of economic development of the area, a higher level of poverty, a lower offer of well-paid jobs, a significant part of the labor force tends to migrate to other places in the country or in other states, with consequences for the entire balance.

3D Modeling Simulation and Innovative Design of a Saw Cutting Mechanism for a Movable Buckling Machine

In this research, a sawing mechanism of a mobile buckling machine was innovatively designed for the forest resources and environmental characteristics of the northeast region of China. The northeast region of China is rich in forest resources, but the climate is cold, which puts high demands on the performance and adaptability of mechanical equipment. In this study, the three-dimensional modeling of the saw-cutting mechanism was completed by Pro/Engineer 5.0 modeling software, and an in-depth dynamics simulation analysis was carried out using dynamics simulation software. The study aims to assess the applicability of this saw-cutting mechanism in the northeast region of China, analyze its design characteristics, and explore possible directions for performance optimization. Through this study, we expect to provide valuable references for future technological innovations, as well as to promote the practical application and development of mobile buckling machines in cold regions. This research not only has regional characteristics, but also reflects the innovative idea of combining mechanical equipment design with environmental adaptability.

Telemedicine Rounding Support for Public Health System Pediatric Intensive Care Units in Brazil can Improve Outcomes.

There are discrepancies in resources and expertise available between pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in Brazil that likely significantly impact the clinical outcomes of patients. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of telemedicine rounding support in two public PICUs located in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Our intervention involves telehealth rounds connecting two "level II" PICUs with specialist doctors from a hospital of recognized excellence. A before-and-after study was carried out to evaluate telemedicine's impact on PICUs between December 2018 and July 2019. Nine hundred and forty patients were evaluated during this period (426 pre-telemedicine, 514 post-telemedicine). The intervention occurred through telerounds between the command center and the ICUs assisted by telemedicine. In unit A, the implementation of telemedicine reduced the mortality rate from 18.86% to 9.29%, while in unit B, it decreased from 10.76% to 9.72%. There was no change in the median length of stay in unit A, but in unit B, it increased from 6 to 8 days. Logistic regression analysis confirmed a significant reduction in mortality in unit A (odds ratio (OR) 0.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.86). The study found a positive correlation between adherence to telemedicine recommendations and mortality reduction across both units. This suggests that telemedicine can effectively improve outcomes in PICUs, particularly in regions with limited health-care resources.

Six new species of Globba L. (Zingiberales, Zingiberaceae) from the Eastern Himalayas and Northeast India.

We describe six new species in the genus Globba L.: Globbacorniculata sp. nov., Globbapaschimbengalensis sp. nov., Globbapolymorpha sp. nov., Globbatyrnaensis sp. nov., Globbajanakiae sp. nov., and Globbayadaviana sp. nov. collected from the Indian part of the Eastern Himalayas (West Bengal) and Northeast India. We provide a detailed morphological description of all six species along with photographic plates, distribution maps, and tentative conservation assessments. We also provide a dichotomous identification key for all the Indian Globba species and discuss the newly described species in relation to those that are morphologically similar to them. Finally, we highlight the taxonomic collection challenges in the ecologically sensitive Eastern Himalayas and Northeast regions of India.

Future changes in extremes across China based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models

This paper evaluates the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections’ (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 models’ performance in simulating extreme climate indices across China and its eight subregions for the period 2081–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The models effectively reproduce the spatial patterns of extreme high temperatures, especially in northern China. They show enhanced capabilities in accurately simulating the maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the number of high temperature days (T35). They improve the cold bias of the TXx index in Northwest China and warm bias in South China. In terms of precipitation, the models demonstrate strong performance, evidenced by significant spatial correlations in total wet day precipitation (PTOT) simulations. They reduce the biases of PTOT and simple daily intensity (SDII) compared to CMIP6 models. Regionally, they enhance PTOT accuracy along southern coasts and in Yunnan, better captures very heavy precipitation days (R20) in the Southwest region, max 5-day precipitation (RX5D) in North China and Southwest region, and SDII in the Northeast region and Yunnan. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, significant impacts include increased TXx in Northwest China, more heatwave days in Southwest China, and more T35 in South China. Extreme precipitation will become more frequent in South and East China, with the greatest intensity increases in Southwest China (SWC1). North China will see fewest consecutive dry days (CDD) indices, while consecutive wet days (CWD) will prominently rise in SWC1.

Zero-inflated multivariate tobit regression modeling

A frequent challenge encountered in real-world applications is data having a high proportion of zeros. Focusing on ecological abundance data, much attention has been given to zero-inflated count data. Models for non-negative continuous abundance data with an excess of zeros are rarely discussed. Work presented here considers the creation of a point mass at zero through a left-censoring approach or through a hurdle approach. We incorporate both mechanisms to capture the analog of zero-inflation for count data. Additionally, primary attention has been given to univariate zero-inflated modeling (e.g., single species), whereas data often arise jointly (e.g., a collection of species). With multivariate abundance data, a key issue is to capture dependence among the species at a site, both in terms of positive abundance as well as absence. Therefore, our contribution is a model for multivariate zero-inflated continuous data that are non-negative. Working in a Bayesian framework, we discuss the issue of separating the two sources of zeros and offer model comparison metrics for multivariate zero-inflated data. In an application, we model the total biomass for five tree species obtained from plots established in the Forest Inventory Analysis database in the Northeast region of the United States.

Ancient Genome of Broomcorn Millet from Northwest China in Seventh Century CE: Shedding New Light to Its Origin and Dispersal Patterns

Broomcorn millet (Panicum miliaceum) is among the earliest domesticated staple crops in the world’s agricultural history and facilitated the development of several early agrarian cultures, particularly those originating in northern China. However, the propagation route of broomcorn millet in China from the Middle Ages to the present remains unclear. The aim of this study is to explore the genetic affinity between ancient and modern millet samples, trace the genetic origins and diffusion pathways of broomcorn millet, and provide insights into its domestication and spread. To achieve this, we sequence ancient DNA from broomcorn millet remains excavated from the Chashan Village cemetery (AD 691) in Gansu Province, China. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, integrating ancient and modern millet genomes, reveal a close genetic relationship between ancient millet and contemporary millet from Ningxia Province (445 km away from Chashan Village), suggesting a potential origin for the Chashan millet. This finding aligns with the tomb’s epitaph, which documents the reburial of the tomb’s owner, who was originally buried in Ningxia, and provides important archaeological evidence for understanding the interaction between geopolitical dynamics and the natural environment in northwest China during the late seventh century. Furthermore, outgroup-f3 and D statistics evidence suggests substantial genetic interactions between ancient millet and modern varieties from the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, and Northeast Plain, indicating the dispersal route of broomcorn millet, along with human migration routes, from the northwest to northern China and ultimately to the northeast region, starting from the Middle Ages onward. This study enhances our understanding of millet’s genetic history, offers a novel perspective on burial archaeology, and provides valuable insights into the origins, domestication, and diffusion of broomcorn millet.

Predicting the Path of Insurgency: Data-Driven Strategies to Counter Boko Haram in Nigeria

Background While Boko Haram insurgency’s dangers are well documented, existing research lacks methods for effective monitoring and prediction, of their activities. This study addresses this gap by analyzing data from Nigerian Security Tracker website (https://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483) from year 2011 to 2023 and geolocated information on Boko Haram activity. Methods The research employs a mixed-methods approach. It uses descriptive statistics to understand attack trends and time series models (ARIMA/SARIMA) to forecast future attacks. Additionally, control charts identify periods of heightened insurgency. Results The findings confirm the Northeast region, as the epicenter of Boko Haram activities. The average monthly attack rate was 18 incidents, leading to 682 deaths over 12 years. 2014 and 2015 witnessed the peak of the insurgency. The forecasting models suggest a potential decrease in attack frequency in the coming years, with an average of nine attacks per month. This predicted decline might be linked to intervention efforts. Control charts reveal periods where attacks surpassed expected levels, highlighting critical moments for intensified counter-insurgency measures. These periods include July 2012-May 2014 and June 2014-August 2015, with a period of regained control. Conclusion This research provides valuable insights for stakeholders working to fight against Boko Haram’s insurgency. It offers forecasting capabilities and identifies critical periods, potentially informing targeted interventions and improving overall counter-insurgency strategies.