North Atlantic Treaty Research Articles

THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: AN INTRACTABLE CHALLENGE TO THE CONCEPT OF A GLOBAL SOCIETY AND LIBERAL ETHICS

It is now over a year since Russian launched its so-called special military operation against Ukraine. Several states, as well as the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the United Nations, and other International Organizations condemned the war from inception. At the same time, there other states that have opted to remain neutral. Regardless, the initial general belief that this conflict would not degenerate into a long drawn -out war has waned in the face of escalation and increasing involvement of NATO, thus raising fears of an outbreak of a Third World War (WWIII). This article conceptually examines the challenges that the Russia-Ukraine war poses to the prospect of a global society and ethics of liberalism in international relations. In so doing, it unravels glaring limitations and questions on both counts. Ultimately, it advances the argument that vital states interests, competition for power and security in an anarchic international system still hold great sway in international relations. As such, liberalism ethics that has fueled the concept of a global society are altogether proven to be untenable in the midst power politics power politics and nationalism that continues to characterize the international system.

Gunboats and butter: The two percent guideline and NATO burden shifting in the maritime domain

ABSTRACT This study integrates two strands of the alliance burden-sharing literature: the research exploring the impact of the patron’s ability to credibly threaten abandonment and allies’ incentives to burden shift, and the call to disaggregate defense spending when evaluating burden sharing. We contend that allies burden shift by reallocating funds away from capabilities designed to counter threats the patron is unlikely to abandon. Using a novel dataset on naval power, we examine the impact of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) 2014 Wales Pledge and find a notable reduction in non-US NATO naval capabilities post-pledge. We argue that this trend reflects members’ confidence that the US is unlikely to renege on its commitment to protect vital Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs). Since the US cannot credibly threaten to abandon its commitment to protect the alliance’s SLOCs, NATO members’ increase in overall defense spending was shifted away from investments in naval capabilities.

Finland in a Geopolitical Perspective - From Finlandization to Integration with NATO

ObjectivesThe aim of this article is to analyse the determinants of changes in the foreign and security policy of the Republic of Finland and to answer the question of how this country's accession to NATO influenced the balance of power and the security environment in Northern Europe. The results of these analyses will allow us to understand how small states can shape the security environment at both the micro, meso, and macro scale.MethodsDue to Finland's geographical location and its experience in relations with Russia (later the USSR and again with Russia), the article uses a historical and polemological approach. The methodology was supplemented with systemic, quantitative and comparative research.ResultsFinland's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization finally ended its long-standing policy of military non-alignment. Not only the European, but the global security map has changed. There are no longer democratic countries on the map of Europe that border directly on Russia and do not belong to Western military structures. From the Alliance's point of view, Finland's accession is an added value, and this country's greatest advantage is its knowledge and experience in dealing with Russia.ConclusionsIn today's security environment, there is no longer room for either neutrality or military non-engagement. Future research on this issue should approach it in a holistic way, treating the security environment as the sum of military and digital security. Although these two aspects are intertwined, it should not be forgotten that activities in each of them can take place independently.

The right of military personnel to defense in the context of the European integration Ukraine

The relevance of the article is because certain aspects of harmonisation of legislation of Ukraine and the European Union member states, which are NATO members, in particular, in terms of ensuring the rights of military personnel to defence within criminal proceedings, require their own separate scientific understanding in the current context.
 The article analyses the provisions of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms of 1950, the Agreement between the Parties to the North Atlantic Treaty regarding the Status of their Forces of their Armed Forces, and national legislation of Ukraine.
 The author notes that today in Ukraine there is no separate system of military justice and no specialisation of attorneys at the level of law in cases of this category has been introduced. Given that our country is currently facing a full-scale invasion, and the establishment of a military justice system following the example of certain NATO member states requires significant budgetary expenditures, it seems appropriate to introduce mandatory specialisation of lawyers providing legal assistance to military personnel in criminal proceedings.
 At the same time, NATO member states do not have a same vision of the need to introduce a separate system of military justice, but the existence of agreed standards of legal protection of our military personnel and military personnel of these countries is one of the integral elements of Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
 In connection with the above, there is already an urgent need to study and implement the above standards in national legislation, including, inter alia, the consolidation of provisions in the legislation on the specialisation of lawyers providing legal aid in criminal proceedings of this category.

Russia-NATO and Ukraine-NATO relations: from “a new quality” to “a shattered peace”

Political and legal foundations of the relations between Russia and Ukraine with NATO are examined in a comparative manner. The basic documents for interaction were studied in detail: Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation and Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine.An analysis of statements by offi cials of the USA, NATO, Russia and Ukraine in connection with Russian special military operation in Ukraine is provided. NATO continues its provocative policy of expansion unwinding a spiral of militarization and aggravation of geopolitical tensions in order to achieve superiority. The notorious “open door” doctrine has become so ossifi ed and hardened in its immutability that there is no reason to expect any changes, corrections or simply rethinking of its consequences for the security interests of NATO itself, its members and invitees. A stream of spells and predictable ritual statements, which do not contain the slightest element of novelty, is pouring out from Brussels. Moscow’s view on this is also well known and opposite to NATO’s one: the origin of the current deepest security crisis in the Euro-Atlantics was the destructive policy of the collective West thoroughly saturated with anti-Russian approaches and completely negating the proposals and initiatives that Russia had put forward as a possible solution to existing problems. The naked double standards and rough actions of NATO countries in Eurasia and other regions of the world testify to their desire, through the so-called controlled chaos and suff ering of millions of people, to prevent the establishment of a just multipolar world order implanting in its place a fl awed “rules-based order.” The architects of a unipolar world will be disappointed: hegemony led by the United States is impossible since there are Russia, China and India on the Eurasian continent. American elites cannot help but understand that they live in a country isolated by two oceans, the history of which is far shorter than Russian, Chinese and Indian which stretch back thousands of years.

Current Approaches to Improving Consensus Decision-Making Mechanisms in International Regional Organizations

This study is aimed to study a key element of the activity of any international organization — the problem of consensus decision-making and the corresponding practice of solving it both in integration bodies (Eurasian Economic Union, European Union) and in interstate organizations devoid of a supranational component (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, North Atlantic Treaty Organization treaty, Collective Security Treaty Organization).Aim. Identify current approaches to improving the application of the rule of consensus in interstate (intergovernmental) structures and their bodies.Tasks. Investigate and generalize the practice of consensus decision-making within the international regional organizations, highlight actual ways to increase the efficiency of their decision-making mechanisms.Methods. The study used general scientific methodology. The comparative analysis method is used to compare existing decision-making practices. Analysis, synthesis, generalization, as well as the formal logical method were used to formulate the conclusions of the work.Results. The collective decision-making based on consensus follows from the international legal principle par in parem non habet imperium. It emphasizes the equality of all participants in an international organization and excludes the imposition of obligations non-approved by a sovereign state. From this point of view, consensus is a way to strengthen unity and achieve organizational stability. Simultaneously the practice of using this form in various international organizations gives evidence to its low efficiency in decision-making. Achieving consensus requires intensive efforts to coordinate the positions of the parties, and the emergence of “one-vote veto” situations cannot be ruled out. A possible way to increase the efficiency of decision-making within the framework of integration processes (EU, EAEU) lies through the development of supranational mechanisms.Conclusions. Analysis of the practice of functioning of international regional organizations (SCO, NATO, CSTO) allows to identify two approaches aimed at overcoming the negative features of consensus decision-making. The first involves the development of an international organization with formal obligations of members into a community associated with the establishment of a set of shared values among its participants. The second presumes the creation of mechanisms that allow interested states to use the institutions of such a structure to make collective decisions without a not-participating state. Both approaches do not exclude but complement each other.

Effectiveness of the Decision-Making Process in International Security Organizations in the Context of International Crises

The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the aggravation of interstate conflicts at the regional and interregional levels. In these conditions, the issue of the effectiveness of decision-making mechanisms and procedures in the activities of the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) becomes relevant. The aim of the article is to carry out a comparative analysis of the decision-making process in the activities of international security organisations, such as the UN, NATO, and the OSCE, and determine their effectiveness in the context of aggravation of interstate conflicts at the regional and interregional level. Using the methodology of content analysis, descriptive, comparative methods and analysis of legal acts. The procedure for the development and adoption was analysed, and the effectiveness of the adoption and implementation of UN, NATO, and OSCE decisions was considered. Further research prospects may be the study of the mechanisms of such limitations.

An Indefinite Alliance? Article 13 and the North Atlantic Treaty

ABSTRACT This article examines the background to the provisions in the North Atlantic Treaty for the alliance’s duration and member state withdrawal (Article 13). Studies of the Treaty have generally ignored Article 13 despite it being intensely debated during the treaty negotiations in 1948–1949. Addressing the views on duration and withdrawal that featured during these negotiations fills important gaps in the historical literature on the Alliance. In particular, understanding how consensus was reached on these clauses highlights the important role played by both strategic and domestic political considerations. In particular, the wording of the clause was directly linked with deterrence of military aggression and reassurance of Allies. It was also linked with the American preference for a treaty of relatively short duration, which was perceived to be a necessity in winning Senate ratification. In addition, this article traces a number of subsequent diplomatic controversies associated with Article 13, including the 1966 French withdrawal from the Alliance’s integrated military structure and, more recently, President Donald Trump´s reported interest in a US withdrawal.

Climate Change and Implications for National Security and International Law in the Arctic

Climate change threatens national security due to the potential it carries to destabilize fragile regions, damage military installations, and exacerbate existing tensions between countries. While these effects will be global, the Arctic region represents a microcosm of a future where climate change affects the strategic priorities of states and renders existing governing institutions inadequate. Moreover, climate change will challenge the collage of “soft” international law that governs the Arctic, administered primarily through the Arctic Council’s collaborative forum. While this system has been effective, the opening of the Far North to increased sea passage, commercial exploitation, and great powers’ interests necessitates a more robust integration of binding law and should spur the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (“NATO”) to better prepare for confrontations and contingencies that may arise as the ice recedes.

NATO’s Securitization of Climate Change in the Arctic

This study analyzes how and why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) securitizes climate change in the Arctic. The study acknowledges that climate change has not only endangered the environmental security of the Arctic but has also intensified geopolitical competition over the region’s resources and trade routes as a threat multiplier. Regarding the impact of the changing structure of the region from the “cooperation front” to the “competition area”, the study reveals that NATO considers climate change as a part of the collective defense dimension of its organizational identity, along with increasing geopolitical competition, to develop a holistic approach in its Arctic policy. Drawing on the Copenhagen School and social constructivism, the study presents that NATO resorts to securitization discourses that concretize the threat in order to address climate change within the scope of its organizational identity.

Reforming the common security and defense policy in the long term, considering the threat from Russia

This article analyzes the need to reform the Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union in the long term, with a particular focus on the threat, posed by the russian federation. The growth of russia's aggressiveness and foreign policy ambitions creates the need to strengthen and adapt the security and defense policy of the European Union. A number of decisions, adopted by the European Union as a countermeasure to russian aggression against Ukraine, are analyzed. The article also examines the reasons that led to the need for institutional reform and key aspects of it, including the strengthening of the Union's military capabilities, the development of the cyber security sector and the expansion of cyber defense infrastructure, ensuring an increase in joint financing of the defense sector and cooperation with strategic partners. The importance and necessity of political unity and joint action among the member states of the European Union, strengthening of defense capabilities, defense cooperation, improvement of crisis management mechanisms and provision of mutual assistance between member states for effective response to threats from russia were emphasized. The article calls for intensive cooperation and coordination between the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as well as for strengthening external partnerships with countries that share common values and have common security interests in the implementation of joint projects and programs in the field of security and defense to ensure stability and security in the region. Reforming the Common Security and Defense Policy is a key factor in ensuring Europe's collective security in the medium and long term, taking into account the needs and challenges of the modern geopolitical environment, and through joint action, the European Union can act as a united front in security solutions and international cooperation

Sweden's quest for shelter: ‘Nonalignment' and NATO membership

AbstractThis paper posits that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Sweden's decision to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and end its official policy of ‘nonalignment’ is neither very surprising nor radical in nature. Utilising the shelter theory framework, we examine the Swedish case to shed a new light on the economic, societal and political shelter‐seeking policy choices that led to Stockholm's NATO application in May of 2022. The analysis finds that Sweden's established strategy of seeking shelter from Western powers eventually induced and facilitated close military cooperation with NATO—ultimately leading to accession on 7 March 2024. The decision to join the Alliance should, therefore, be understood as a culmination, building on a historically flexible approach to neutrality and previously established shelter arrangements that were deemed in 2022, after Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent developments in Finland, to be no longer sufficient in deterring or responding to new threat dynamics. The case indicates that shelter theory accurately captures the foreign policy strategy of a small neutral and later nonaligned state. However, analysing Sweden's move towards NATO within the given framework also presents an opportunity for theory development; specifically, the theory ought to more meticulously examine three small‐state shelter‐seeking features, namely, how societal and economic shelter relations may precede and, therefore, affect political shelter strategies (or vice versa), the role of ‘critical junctures’ in the theory; and finally, how small states may be affected by each other's shelter‐seeking strategies.

The Impact of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: The Crucial Role of the European NATO Allies

This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies, and especially the non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), may and should play a key role in the future of nuclear disarmament. Once the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is signed and ratified by more or less 100 NNWS, mostly from the Global South, it will be up to the allied NNWS to make up their mind about their role vis-à-vis nuclear disarmament. Will they continue to behave as protégés by (and in some way also protectors of) the nuclear-armed states and break the disarmament process further, or will they shake off the nuclear “protection” in the interest of making progress toward a world without nuclear weapons? This article zooms in on the European NATO allies in particular. The TPNW can and will be used to put pressure on the European NATO allies to switch sides, and it can, on its turn, be used by the European NATO allies to stigmatize the nuclear-armed states in order to make progress in the direction of nuclear elimination. The article starts by reviewing the origins and objectives of the TPNW. In the next section, its impact will be scrutinized. We then turn to the current and possible future role of the European NATO allies.

Sharing the Burden and Dodging the Blame: NATO as a Western Instrument of Nuclear Advocacy

The West often indicate in discourse their desire to disarm. However, Western pro-nuclear disarmament rhetoric is often contested, since Western nuclear powers claim there are impeding factors to disarmament. These factors usually include the compromise of the security of their allies and generic ‘security reasons’. The argument is that concrete disarmament efforts are unfeasible and unrealistic because they do not consider the wide range of security concerns that nuclear weapons help mitigate. Oftentimes, the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies is invoked to justify the need for nuclear weapons. In that sense, I argue that the West instrumentalizes the NATO to rationalize and legitimize their nuclear weapons possession. They do so by 1) deflecting criticism related to nuclear policy to the organization; 2) passing the buck regarding the blame of maintaining nuclear weapons; 3) coercing NATO allies to adopt pro-nuclear policies; and 4) creating threats to justify these policies. Nuclear weapons symbolize material and reputational power and nuclear disarmament represents a severe loss of power for these States. The West creates a narrative wherein nuclear weapons are a ‘necessary evil’ to guarantee their own security and their allies.

Is international cooperation effective in combating terrorism? Evidence from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

ABSTRACT Previous studies have theoretically demonstrated that international counter-terrorism cooperation can effectively combat terrorism and maintain regional stability and development. However, due to the limited availability of data, most studies lack empirical analysis. We employ differences-in-differences models to investigate whether the counter-terrorism cooperation actions of Shanghai Cooperation Organization can effectively inhibit the development of terrorism in member countries. We find that after the official launch of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the number of terrorist activities in member countries decreased by 59.8% compared to other Belt and Road countries, and the number of casualties caused by terrorist activities decreased by 42.7%. Mechanism tests show that the breeding ground for terrorism can be eradicated by improving political governance and promoting economic development in member countries. In the context of counter-terrorism, apart from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union contribute to the reduction of terrorist attacks among their member states. We believe that by seeking international counter-terrorism cooperation based on common security interests, and actively utilizing a flexible and diverse range of counter-terrorism measures, we can curb the development of terrorism.

Russia's Weaponized Migration: Analysing its Impact on Finnish-Russian Border Security

ObjectivesThis study aims to understand the frameworks of Russia's hybrid maneuvers , specifically the strategic use of migration, on Finland's security, as well as that of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The focus is on examining how migration is used by Russia as a geopolitical tool to influence the security landscape of these regions.MethodsEmploying a case study methodology, the analysis draws upon a diverse range of data sources and scholarly literature. It scrutinises Russia's tactical approaches towards Finland and other countries situated on NATO's eastern flank, shedding light on the broader implications for regional stability and security.ResultsThe findings underscore Russia's deployment of migration as a geopolitical lever, exerting significant pressure on national security frameworks. In response, Finland has strengthened its defence mechanisms and sought to enhance international cooperation to effectively counteract these challenges.ConclusionsAfter joining NATO, Finland plays a key role in ensuring the security of the northern flank. Due to its location, this country is compelled to respond in real time to all possible threats that come with the direct proximity of the Russian Federation. Consequently, Finland is, in a sense, a frontline state and other countries should draw from its experience.

Attitudes of Labor Migrants from Central Asia to International Integration Organizations in the Post-Soviet Space

The article presents the results of a sociological empirical study that was conducted from May to August in 2023. Its purpose was to study the attitudes of labor migrants in Russia towards various international integration processes in the post-Soviet space. The objects of the study were workers from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, working in Moscow and the Moscow region. The choice of these countries is not accidental, as they are the main migration donors to the Russian Federation in Central Asia. The uniqueness of the research results lies in the fact that despite the certain “popularity” of such an empirical object as “labor migrants.” The analyzed subject has not yet been sufficiently developed theoretically and empirically. Particular attention is paid to the political preferences and migration attitudes of labor migrants. The issue of awareness of foreign workers of the activities of international integration and military-political associations, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), European Union (EU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and also the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is examined. The paper also presents the respondents’ assessment of the role of these associations in the development of international processes. Separately, the article examines the relationship between Russia and migrant-sending countries. Based on the results of the study, the authors conclude that respondents have a positive attitude towards integration associations in which Russia plays a key role. Moreover, the socio-political attitudes of foreign workers are characterized by a high degree of loyalty to the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Migrants overwhelmingly support international cooperation between their countries and Russia and share the foreign policy position of the Russian Federation. In conclusion, labor migrants from Central Asia can be considered as a resource and capital of the influence of Russian “soft power.”

Prestige, Humiliation And Saving Face: National Identity and Great Power Politics

Abstract This paper argues that a prestige-humiliation dynamic is a systems-level force that shapes state behavior. Connecting psychological factors to structural realism, we observe the following: the more powerful a state becomes, the more it could seek to overturn past humiliation through aggressive prestige-seeking acts. This is done to reassert its power and status to erase past humiliation and achieve prestige even at the expense of others. Three historical examples will be discussed: Nazi Germany’s erasure of the Treaty of Versailles, China’s Century of Humiliation, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s expansion into Eastern Europe against Russia. The paper will then define face-saving behavior, allowing a competitor to preserve prestige and avoid humiliation as a way to deescalate tension.

The ambivalence of the implementation of the US arctic policy: integrating and disintegration factors of the allies

The Arctic region is gaining increasing strategic importance due to its economic potential, resource richness, and shifting geopolitical landscape. The United States has recognized this significance and has established alliances and partnerships with various countries in the region to enhance its positions and interests. However, concerns exist regarding the limited understanding of the complex dynamics and evolving relationships among the US Arctic allies. The lack of comprehensive analysis and up-to-date information hinders the understanding of their strategic documents, military exercises, and interactions with global players like China and Russia. To address these concerns, our objective was to identify, analyze, and assess the factors that strengthen or weaken the interaction between US allies and partners in the Arctic region. We conducted an analysis of national Arctic strategies, reports, publications, and expert opinions from Western Arctic Council countries such as the USA, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. We also examined the reports and structures of the US defense services, interstate organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), as well as insights from leading experts on Arctic affairs in allied countries. The study revealed several factors that contribute to the strengthening of the US allies in the Arctic. These include active military cooperation within the North Atlantic Alliance, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of Arctic infrastructure to enhance regional security and defense capabilities. However, we also identified factors that weaken engagement among the US allies. These include differences in strategic goals, competing territorial claims, domestic political considerations, and varying relationships with other Arctic stakeholders like Russia and China. These factors can lead to tensions and challenges, which undermine collective action and impede the achievement of common goals.

NATO defense planning under new military and political conditions

An analysis of the military and political preconditions for the current transformation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is presented. The deterioration of relations between Russia and NATO member states, which accelerated with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine accompanied by massive supplies of Western weapons systems to Kiev, launched the reconfiguring of the entire system of military and political decision-making and defense planning process in NATO. The alliance is returning to its original mission – countering the “Russian threat” (formerly Soviet), despite the fact that NATO is not declaratively a party to the armed conflict in Ukraine. NATO’s reaction and actions in connection with the Ukrainian crisis and the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO), including the plans of the alliance’s leadership for the future, are analyzed. The simplification of a number of procedures and requirements in the defense planning system of the organization in the short and medium term are noted. The full cycle of NATO defense planning is examined in detail and schematically presented, and a forecast of its further evolution is given.