North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Process Evaluation of Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation Prediction in the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System

AbstractThis study evaluates the prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its associated energy budget as simulated by the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast system. By classifying NAO events into high‐ and low‐skill cases, we analyzed the stationarity of NAO patterns and the role of baroclinic energy conversion in NAO prediction. In both positive and negative NAO phases, high‐skill cases exhibited more stationary NAO patterns than low‐skill cases. The analysis of processes indicates that high‐skill NAO cases are due to stronger baroclinic maintenance of NAO, with its initial position at the climatological thermal trough, whereas low‐skill NAO cases result from forecast biases in wave propagation from the North Pacific. Specifically, biases in baroclinic energy conversion in the meridional direction from week 2 lead to weak advection of the eddy available potential energy (EAPE), resulting in lower prediction skill.

The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic sea ice, and Arctic jet Rossby wave forcing.

We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) coupled and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) climate models, dynamical analyses, and observations to investigate interactions between summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). Observations suggest that SIC-SNAO relationships mainly come from the East Siberian to Arctic Canada (ESAC) region where a weak atmospheric jet stream exists in summer. Twelve CMIP6 models with the most realistic atmospheric climatologies over the North Atlantic and Europe agree well with reanalyses on relationships between SIC and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. CMIP6 model data indicate that ESAC SIC influences the SNAO with a lead time of several weeks. However, AMIP simulations do not reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation when observed sea ice is prescribed. Rossby wave analyses do though support observed ESAC SIC influences on the SNAO. We conclude that ESAC Arctic SIC modestly influences the SNAO, and such investigations require the use of coupled models.

Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines

Internal variability arising from the inherently chaotic nature of the climate system has amplified or obscured human-caused changes, especially at regional scales in the extratropics, where its contribution to climate variability is the largest. It is virtually certain that this will continue in the near-term. We here focus on the Northern Europe region, whose variability is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through remote dynamical and thermodynamic processes, and introduce the concept of internal variability storylines (IVS) to explore, understand, and quantify the role of the two combined drivers of internal variability in the modulation of the anthropogenic warming by 2040 in winter. Based on a large ensemble of historical-scenario simulations, we show that the high-impact IVS, characterised by weak AMOC decline and a decadal shift of the NAO toward dominant positive phase, leads faster to warmer-wetter conditions independently of actual and future greenhouse gases emissions. By contrast, amplified AMOC reduction and more recurrent negative NAO can considerably damp both warming and wettening at near-term. In the latter IVS, we provide evidence that winter-severe conditions similar to those in 2010, that had been responsible for widespread socio-economic disruptions, remain almost as likely to occur by 2040. Reframing the uncertain climate outcomes into the physical science space in a conditional form through the prism of IVS makes climate information relevant for accurate risk assessments and adaptation planning.

Atmospheric warming during rapid sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara seas in winter

AbstractThe atmospheric temperature change associated with rapid sea ice loss events over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) is explored. Rapid sea ice loss events are defined as periods with a tendency for sea ice concentration averaged over BKS to be below the fifth percentile of the probability density function distribution during the winters of 1979–2020 for at least three consecutive days. Composite analysis shows that there is a significantly positive bottom‐amplified temperature anomaly ahead of the rapid sea ice loss, which is closely associated with a wave train composed of a Ural blocking and an upstream positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. This structure is favorable for the transport of warm and moist air into the BKS, and therefore, the tropospheric temperature, including the surface air temperature, increases through horizontal warm‐temperature advection, specifically through warm advection of the climatological temperature by the anomalous wind. The cooling over the BKS due to the adiabatic effect and vertical mixing opposes the horizontal warm‐temperature advection above and below about 900 hPa, respectively. However, an increase in skin temperature prominently results from enhanced downward long‐wave radiation, which is also the main contributor to the rapid sea ice loss.

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

Cross-Time-Scale Analysis of Year-Round Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Their Impacts on Rainfall and Temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract This study presents a framework to assess climate variability and change through atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and their link with regional processes across time scales. We evaluate the CP impacts on daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula using sea level pressure (SLP) during 1950–2022. Different sensitivity analyses are performed, employing multiple spatial domains and number of patterns. An optimal classification is found in midlatitudes, centered over the Mediterranean basin and covering part of the North Atlantic Ocean, which can identify atmospheric configurations significantly related to discriminated rainfall and temperature anomalies, with clear seasonal behavior. The temporal variability of CPs is studied across time scales showing, e.g., that transitions between patterns are faster in autumn and spring, and that CPs exhibit distinct temporal variability at intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, including significant long-term trends on their frequency. CPs influence temperature and precipitation variations throughout the year. The winter season exhibits the largest atmospheric circulation variability, while the summer is dominated by persistent high-pressure structures—the subtropical Azores high—leading to warm and dry conditions. Based on an interannual correlation analysis, some CPs are significantly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stronger during winter, indicating the NAO modulation on the regional-to-local climatic features. Overall, this approach arises as a dynamic cross-time-scale framework that can be adapted to specific user needs and levels of regional detail, being useful to study climate drivers for climate change and to perform a process-based evaluation of climate models.

No Evidence of Winter Warming in Eurasia Following Large, Low-Latitude Volcanic Eruptions during the Last Millennium

Abstract We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the last millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the last millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first posteruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold posteruption anomalies, we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large, low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia. Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of posteruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire last millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies and offer important new evidence that large, low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia.

The intensifying relationship between heatwaves in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and the upstream atmospheric wave train after the 2000s

The frequency and duration of heatwaves are rapidly increasing worldwide under the background of global warming. This trend is also observed in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV), raising great public concern due to its significant impacts. This study identifies a wave train involving the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Ural blocking (UB), and an anticyclone over the MLYRV, which is closely linked to MLYRV heatwaves during 1970–2023. Our findings indicate that the development of the anticyclone over the MLYRV is associated with the energy dispersion of the UB under the regulation of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ). Further analyses reveal that the correlation of heatwave frequency with the NAO index and UB days is significantly stronger during 2001–2023 (P2) compared to 1970–2000 (P1). This strengthening may be attributable to the northeastward extension of the NAJ to northern Eurasia during P2, modulated by the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Such strong zonal winds over high latitudes of Eurasia are expected to favor low-latitude UB, and its robust downstream energy dispersion enhances the development of heatwaves during P2. In contrast, the weaker zonal winds over high latitudes of Eurasia during P1 favor high-latitude UB under the regulation of the negative phase of the AMO, and the correlation between the UB and heatwaves is less significant due to weak energy dispersion from the high-latitude UB to the MLYRV. Consequently, the UB acts as a crucial bridge within this wave train, facilitating the energy transfer necessary for heatwave formation.

Dominant spring precipitation anomaly modes and circulation characteristics in the Tarim Basin, Central Asia

Recently, extreme precipitation has occurred frequently in the Tarim Basin, which has a fragile ecological environment, arousing widespread concern. Using daily precipitation observations from 42 stations in the Tarim Basin during the spring of 1980–2021 and monthly circulation reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5, as well as statistical analyses and physical diagnostic methods, this study investigated the abnormal modes and the evolution characteristics and differences in atmospheric circulation. The results show that the spring precipitation anomalies in the Tarim Basin can be divided into two independent precipitation modes: the first (EOF1) is a precipitation pattern that is uniform throughout the region and the second (EOF2) is an east–west inverse pattern. Thus, there are distinct differences in the atmospheric circulation characteristics responsible for abnormal spring precipitation modes in the basin. When the precipitation across the entire basin is consistently excessive, the 500 hPa geopotential height is affected by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation related circulation, and the 700 hPa wind field is controlled by abnormal southwesterly winds. Water vapor transport is mainly driven by anomalous water vapor uplift along the terrain in the middle latitudes west of the Atlantic Ocean and south of the Arabian Sea. This leaves the Tarim Basin with a net water vapor budget and abnormally high atmospheric precipitable water. The opposite situation occurs when the precipitation across the entire basin is consistently lower than normal. When there is a west-to-east precipitation gradient, The western region of the Tarim Basin is dominated by upward airflow, whereas the eastern region is dominated by downward airflow, providing dynamic conditions for the west-to-east precipitation gradient. Under the influence of anomalous water vapor transport from the southwest and water vapor convergence, water vapor conditions favorable for precipitation can occur. The net water vapor in the basin also exhibited an abnormal west-to-east transport pattern. Moreover, the atmospheric precipitable water demonstrated an inverse phase distribution under the EOF2 atmospheric precipitation mode in the Tarim Basin.

Long-Term Teleconnections Between Global Circulation Patterns and Interannual Variability of Surface Air Temperature over Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Surface air temperature (SAT) variability is investigated for advancing our understanding of the climate patterns over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). SAT variability reveals significant warming trends, particularly from 1994 onward, as demonstrated by nonlinear and linear trend analysis. This warming is linked to global climate patterns, which serve as significant indicators for studying the effects of climate change on surface air temperature patterns across the KSA. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method is employed for analyzing SAT due to its effectiveness in extracting dominant patterns of variability during the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The first mode (EOF1) for both seasons shows positive variability across the KSA, explaining more than 45% of the variance. The second mode (EOF2) indicates negative variability in central and northern regions. The third mode (EOF3) describes positive variability but with lower variance over time. PC1 is used to describe the physical mechanism of SAT variability and correlations with global sea surface temperature (SST). The physical mechanism shows that the variability in Mediterranean troughs during the winter season and high pressure over the Indian Ocean and central Asia controls SAT variability over the KSA. The correlation coefficients (CCs) were calculated during the winter and summer season between the SAT of the KSA and six teleconnection indices, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), Pacific Warm Pool (PWP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST for the period from 1994 to 2022. ENSO shifts from positive to negative correlations with SAT from winter to summer. IOD shows a diminished correlation with SAT due to the absence of upper air dynamics. PWP consistently enhances surface warming in both seasons through upper air convergence during both seasons. AMM and NAO have a non-significant impact on SAT; however, TNA contributes warming over central and northern parts during winter and summer seasons. The seasonal SAT variations emphasize the significant role of ENSO, PWP, and TNA across the seasons. The findings of this study can be helpful for seasonal predictability in the KSA.

Variations of Lake Ice Phenology Derived from MODIS LST Products and the Influencing Factors in Northeast China

Lake ice phenology serves as a sensitive indicator of climate change in the lake-rich Northeast China. In this study, the freeze-up date (FUD), break-up date (BUD), and ice cover duration (ICD) of 31 lakes were extracted from a time series of the land water surface temperature (LWST) derived from the combined MOD11A1 and MYD11A1 products for the hydrological years 2001 to 2021. Our analysis showed a high correlation between the ice phenology measures derived by our study and those provided by hydrological records (R2 of 0.89) and public datasets (R2 > 0.7). There was a notable coherence in lake ice phenology in Northeast China, with a trend in later freeze-up (0.21 days/year) and earlier break-up (0.19 days/year) dates, resulting in shorter ice cover duration (0.50 days/year). The lake ice phenology of freshwater lakes exhibited a faster rate of change compared to saltwater lakes during the period from HY2001 to HY2020. We used redundancy analysis and correlation analysis to study the relationships between the LWST and lake ice phenology with various influencing factors, including lake properties, local climate factors, and atmospheric circulation. Solar radiation, latitude, and air temperature were found to be the primary factors. The FUD was more closely related to lake characteristics, while the BUD was linked to local climate factors. The large-scale oscillations were found to influence the changes in lake ice phenology via the coupled influence of air temperature and precipitation. The Antarctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation correlate more with LWST in winter, and the Arctic Oscillation correlates more with the ICD.

The cloud cover and meteorological parameters at the Lenghu site on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The cloud cover and meteorological parameters serve as fundamental criteria for an astronomical observatory working in optical and infrared wavelengths. In this paper, we present a systematic assessment of key meteorological parameters at the Lenghu astronomical observing site on the Tibetan Plateau. The datasets adopted includes the meteorological parameters collected at the local weather stations at the site and in the Lenghu Town, the sky brightness acquired by the Sky Quality Meters and all-sky images from a digital camera, the ERA5 reanalysis database and global climate monitoring data. From 2019 to 2023, the fractional observable time of photometric condition is 69.70%, 74.97%, 70.26%, 74.27% and 65.12%, respectively, which is influenced by a variety of meteorological parameters. Large-scale air-sea interactions affect the climate at Lenghu site, which in fact delivers a clue to understand the irregularity of 2023. Specifically, precipitable water vapor at Lenghu site is correlated to both the westerly wind index and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation index, the yearly average temperature of Lenghu site is observed to increase significantly during the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, and the relative humidity anomaly at Lenghu site is correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. The decrease of fractional observing time in 2023 was due to the ongoing strong El Niño event and relevant global climate change. We underscore the substantial role of global climate change in regulating astronomical observing conditions and the necessity for long-term continuous monitoring of the astronomical meteorological parameters at Lenghu site.

Baleen stable isotopes reveal climate-driven behavioural shifts in North Atlantic fin whales

Climate variability impacts the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems and can trigger behavioural responses in organisms. We investigated whether such variability modulates diet and migration in the North Atlantic fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus). To reconstruct the dietary and migratory behaviours over time, we conducted stable isotope analysis of nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) along baleen plates from 29 fin whales sampled off southwestern (SW) Iceland in summer. We estimated a baleen growth rate of 16.1 ± 2.5 cm per year from the stable isotope oscillations observed along the baleens. We also assigned a deposition date for each baleen segment, thus obtaining isotopic sequential time series. We then assessed the potential association of these time series with the main climate patterns of the North Atlantic basin. Baleen δ15N and δ13C values are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During high AMO and low NAO periods, which tend to decrease krill abundance, there is an increase in both the mean and standard deviation of baleen δ15N values, suggesting that fin whales shift to higher trophic resources and expand their dietary niche. Additionally, high AMO periods, which relate to positive temperature anomalies, lead to a decrease in baleen δ13C values, suggesting that fin whales adjust their migratory routes and destinations towards higher latitudes. Significant variation in isotopic niche width between years also reflected these dietary and migratory behavioural shifts. This highlights the plasticity of the North Atlantic fin whale behaviour, a trait likely to strengthen the resilience of the species within the current context of rapid and intense climate variability.

Predictability of European winter 2022/23

AbstractThe boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐winter (January) into a more zonal pattern in late winter (February), consistent with the canonical La Niña teleconnection pattern seen previously. The seasonal forecast for the UK was an increased likelihood of near average temperatures, and drier‐ and calmer‐than‐average conditions. Both the predicted broad‐scale circulation patterns and UK winter mean weather conditions verified well against observations, and we show that seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 10 winters show similar skill to previously reported hindcasts. Throughout the winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was particularly active. On three occasions, it exhibited strong phases 6 and 7. There was also a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred on 16th February. This was followed by colder conditions and associated impacts similar to the canonical negative NAO response over the UK, although the main impact fell in March and so did not affect the winter (December–January–February) mean conditions.

The impact of weather patterns on inter-annual crop yield variability

Inter-annual variations in crop production have significant implications for global food security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability. Existing crop yield prediction models primarily using meteorological variables may not adequately encapsulate the full breadth of weather influences on crop development processes, such as compound or extreme events. Incorporating weather patterns into crop models could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental conditions affecting growth, enabling more accurate and earlier yield predictions.Our study examines 30 distinct UK Met Office weather patterns (MO30) based on mean sea level pressure. We investigate their association with weather conditions that limit winter wheat yield in the UK (1990–2020). Blocked, negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns create the highest risk of temperatures that are below optimal for crop yield. However, the connection between weather patterns and yield is complex, with differing effects at a regional scale and even at which point in the growth cycle they appear. It was found that anticyclonic weather patterns during sowing, emergence, vernalisation, anthesis, and grain filling exhibit a relationship with good crop yields with a Spearman correlation coefficient of up to 0.55 for a single weather pattern (WP3 during vernalisation in South East England), whilst cyclonic patterns can help during the terminal spikelet phenological phase. The strongest positive correlations were during sowing, emergence, and vernalisation, whilst the largest negatives were observed in anthesis and grain filling.The potential of combining weather patterns with existing crop simulation models to produce earlier and more accurate yield predictions is shown. This would enable effective crop management and climate mitigation strategies, critical to strengthening food security. Projected changes in weather pattern occurrences in the late 21st century will likely reduce crop yields. This is due to increased cyclonic weather patterns, which bring warmer, wetter conditions during the wheat's vernalisation stage, followed by warmer, drier conditions during the anthesis and grain-filling phases.

Persistent Summer North Atlantic Jet Variability: Dynamical Feedbacks and Model‐Observation Discrepancies

AbstractPersistent fluctuations in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic (NATL) jet stream are closely linked to extreme weather anomalies, particularly over Europe. Accurately representing jet stream persistence in climate models is essential for enhancing the reliability of future regional extreme weather projections. This study investigates the summer persistence of the NATL jet stream latitudinal fluctuations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) using data from CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 models generally overestimate persistence compared to ERA5 during the historical period. Utilizing the relative vorticity tendency equation, we assess the strength of the eddy‐mean flow feedback and identify a positive relationship between persistence and feedback strength across models. We also found that a large fraction of the intermodel spread in precipitation persistence is associated with differences in the persistence of jet fluctuations.

Low cloud-SST variability over the summertime subtropical Northeast Pacific: Role of extratropical atmospheric modes

Abstract Over the subtropical Northeast Pacific (NEP), highly reflective low clouds interact with underlying sea-surface temperature (SST) to constitute a local positive feedback. Recent modeling studies showed that, together with wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, the summertime low cloud-SST feedback promotes nonlocal trade wind variations, modulating subsequent evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to identify drivers of summertime low-cloud variations, using satellite observations and global atmosphere model simulations forced with observed SST. A trans-basin teleconnection is identified, where the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) warming induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increases precipitation, exciting warm Rossby waves that extend into the NEP. The resultant enhancement of static stability promotes summertime low cloud-SST variability. By regressing out the effects of the preceding ENSO and NTA SST, atmospheric internal variability over the extratropical North Pacific, including the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), is found to drive the NEP cooling by latent heat loss and subsequent summer low cloud-SST variability. With the help of the background trade winds and WES feedback, the SST anomalies extend southwestward from the low-cloud region, accompanied by ENSO in the following winter. This suggests the nonlocal effects of low clouds identified by recent studies. Analysis of a 500-year climate model simulation corroborates the NTA and NPO forcing of NEP low cloud-SST variability and subsequent ENSO.

Studies on Heavy Precipitation in Portugal: A Systematic Review

This systematic review, based on an adaptation of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement from 2020, focuses on studies of the atmospheric mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal, as well as observed trends and projections. The 54 selected articles cover the period from 2000 to 2024, in which the most used keywords are “portugal” and “extreme precipitation”. Of the 54, 23 analyse trends and climate projections of precipitation events, confirming a decrease in total annual precipitation, especially in autumn and spring, accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in autumn, spring and winter. Several articles (twelve) analyse the relationship between synoptic-scale circulation and heavy precipitation, using an atmospheric circulation types approach. Others (two) establish the link with teleconnection patterns, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and still others (three) explore the role of atmospheric rivers. Additionally, five articles focus on evaluating databases and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and nine articles focus on precipitation-related extreme weather events, such as tornadoes, hail and lightning activity. Despite significant advances in the study of extreme precipitation events in Portugal, there is still a lack of studies on hourly or sub-hourly scales, which is critical to understanding mesoscale, short-lived events. Several studies show NWP models still have limitations in simulating extreme precipitation events, especially in complex orography areas. Therefore, a better understanding of such events is fundamental to promoting continuous improvements in operational weather forecasting and contributing to more reliable forecasts of such events in the future.

Tracking orbital and suborbital climate variability in the westernmost Mediterranean over the past 13,000 years: New insights from paleoperspectives on marine productivity responses

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a sediment record from the Western Alboran Basin (core GP04PC), utilizing palynological and geochemical tools to investigate marine productivity responses to orbital and suborbital climate variability over the past 13,000 years. High productivity during the Younger Dryas humid phase (∼12.4–11.7 ka) and the Holocene humidity optimum (∼10.5–8.5 ka) was driven by increased local river discharges resulting from rapid mountain glaciers melting and enhanced regional precipitation. During the late Holocene, frequent flood events linked to negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) incursions potentially led to multicentennial-scale productivity increases. The findings indicate that periods characterized by wet regional conditions and increased river run-off, influenced by orbital (e.g., insolation cycles) and suborbital factors (e.g., NAO and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes), consistently enhanced marine productivity in the Western Alboran Basin. The study also reveals that the current high productivity and carbon export in the Western Alboran Basin are maintained by active upwelling and downwelling systems driven by a persistent positive NAO phase following the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that occurred around 6.5 ka. Furthermore, geochemical proxies support a strong detrital influence on trace metal concentrations, including barium (Ba), in deep Western Alboran sediments during the Holocene. This limits the use of Ba/Al ratios for accurately reconstructing productivity changes and highlights the importance of dinocyst analysis as a complementary tool for robust marine productivity reconstructions in this region. These observations provide valuable paleoperspectives on marine ecosystem responses to climate variability, contributing to the development of robust long-term productivity models essential for adapting to ongoing environmental changes in the region, and demonstrating the strong influence of North Atlantic climate and ocean dynamics on centennial-scale productivity oscillations in this region.

Palaeoecological Conditions in the South-Eastern and Western Baltic Sea during the Last Millennium

We present the reconstruction of palaeoenvironmental conditions in the Gdansk, Bornholm, and Arkona Basins of the Baltic Sea over the last millennium. A multiproxy study (including geochemical, XRF, grain size, AMS, and micropalaeontological analyses) of five short sediment cores was performed. The relative age of the sediments was determined based on the Pb distribution along the sediment sequences, as radiocarbon dating has resulted in an excessively old age. The retrieved cores cover two comparable warm periods, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Modern Warm Period, for which the increase in surface water productivity was reconstructed. Notably, the production of diatoms was higher during the colder periods (the Dark Ages and Little Ice Age), but this was also the case within the Modern Warm Period. In the Gdansk Basin, the initial salinity increase during the Littorina transgression started after 7.7 cal. a BP. The increased inflow activity was reconstructed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, even in the Gdansk Basin, despite, in general, very low foraminiferal amounts and diversity. The strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation Index during this period led to the prevalence of westerly winds over the Baltic region and stronger saltwater intrusions. In the recent sediments, the reconstructed inflow frequency demonstrates a variability against the reduction trend, and a general decline compared to the Medieval Climate Anomaly is seen.