North Atlantic Climate Variability Research Articles

Coccolithophore assemblage composition during the Greenland Interstadial-Stadial 20 transition and their response to the Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) supereruption ∼74,000 years ago in the northeastern Arabian Sea.

Here we present a new 850-year long coccolithophore record from core SO130-289KL in the northeastern Arabian Sea that spans the Greenland Interstadial 20-Greenland Stadial 20 transition including the timing of the ∼74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) supereruption. During the warm interstadial, the coccolithophore assemblage is characterized by Gephyrocapsa oceanica (41%) and Florisphaera profunda (30%) while the succeeding cold stadial is distinguished by the abundance of small placolith species (Emiliania huxleyi + G. ericsonii) (52%). However, the oldest samples of the study interval seem to show a stadial-like coccolithophore assemblage. Spectral analysis revealed an interdecadal cycle imprinted in the coccolithophore record during the interstadial that was also independently reported in other terrestrial and marine proxies. Immediately after the YTT eruption, small placoliths increased by 42% from 5% right below the YTT layer to 47% ∼1 mm above the YTT layer, while G. oceanica and Helicosphaera carteri increased and F. profunda decreased within the ∼1.15 cm layer representing about 8-19 years. Subsequently, the coccolithophore assemblage returned to a composition similar to the warm interstadial period before abruptly changing to a stadial composition characterized by the abundance of small placoliths about 100-130 years after the YTT eruption. Therefore, the YTT eruption had a significant impact on the overall coccolithophore assemblage but appears to have not caused the climate transition from interstadial to stadial conditions, supporting proxy and modeling data. However, the overall mechanism driving the observed changes and cyclicities remains unknown but might be related to rapid atmospheric teleconnections of North Atlantic climate variability to the low latitudes.

Abrupt warming and alpine glacial retreat through the last deglaciation in Alaska interrupted by modest Northern Hemisphere cooling

Abstract. Alpine glacier-based temperature reconstructions spanning the last deglaciation provide critical constraints on local to regional climate change and have been reported from several formerly glaciated regions around the world yet remain sparse from high-northern-latitude regions. Using newly and previously 10Be-dated moraines, we report paleo-glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) for 15 time slices spanning the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) for a valley in the western Alaska Range. We translate our ELA reconstructions into a proxy for summer temperature by applying a dry adiabatic lapse rate at each reconstructed ELA relative to the outermost LIA moraine. We observe ∼4 °C warming through the last deglaciation at our site that took place in two steps following initial gradual warming: ∼1.5 °C abrupt warming at 16 ka, ∼2 kyr after the onset of global CO2 rise, and ∼2 °C warming at ∼15 ka, near the start of the Bølling. Moraine deposition and modest summer cooling during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the early Younger Dryas (YD) suggest that despite these events being expressed more strongly in wintertime, the classic blueprint of North Atlantic climate variability extends to the western Arctic region.

Climate-induced surface water variability at Monte San Nicola type-section (Sicily, southern Italy): New data across the Gelasian GSSP

We present the first high-resolution results on planktonic foraminiferal stable oxygen isotopes and calcareous plankton assemblages at the Monte San Nicola GSSP section (near Gela, Sicily), the type-section for the Lower Pleistocene Gelasian Stage. The oxygen isotope profile is remarkably similar to the Eastern Mediterranean oxygen isotope record and indicates that the studied section, extending from marine isotope stage (MIS) G4 to MIS 103, clearly records glacial-interglacial variability. Cyclic changes of calcareous plankton assemblages (calcareous nannofossils and foraminifera) indicate that warmer and stratified surface waters occurred during interglacials, while cooler and unstable conditions developed during glacial phases. Signatures of further increase in surface water stratification are also captured by our surface water proxies and are coeval with enhanced monsoon run-off, developed during precession minima/insolation maxima. The surface water changes recorded at the Monte San Nicola section are in phase with North Atlantic climate variability, even at suborbital scale, and reveal evidence of the first significant southward migration of the Subarctic Front in the mid-latitudes during MIS 104, slightly below the GSSP. The overall dataset provides precise alignment of the Gelasian GSSP within MIS 103 as well as new climatostratigraphic constraints, close to the GSSP, thus improving its correlation potential outside the type-area.

A multicentennial mode of North Atlantic climate variability throughout the Last Glacial Maximum

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multicentennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Exploiting LGM simulations with a comprehensive coupled climate model along with high-resolution proxy records, we introduce an oscillatory mode of multicentennial variability, which is associated with moderate variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and depends on the large-scale salinity distribution. This self-sustained mode is amplified by sea-ice feedbacks and induces maximum surface temperature variability in the subpolar North Atlantic region. Characterized by a distinct climatic imprint and different dynamics, the multicentennial oscillation has to be distinguished from Dansgaard-Oeschger variability and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. The potential of multicentennial modes of variability to emerge or disappear in response to changing climate forcing may have implications for future climate change.

Exploring AMOC Regime Change over the Past Four Decades through Ocean Reanalyses

We examine North Atlantic climate variability using an ensemble of ocean reanalysis datasets to study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from 1979 to 2018. The dataset intercomparison shows good agreement for the latest period (1995–2018) for AMOC dynamics, characterized by a weaker overturning circulation after 1995 and a more intense one during 1979–1995, with varying intensity across the various datasets. The correlation between leading empirical orthogonal functions suggests that the AMOC weakening has connections with cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature (SST) and lower (higher) ocean heat content in the subpolar (subtropical) gyre in the North Atlantic. Barotropic stream function and Gulf Stream index reveal a shrinking subpolar gyre and an expanding subtropical gyre during the strong-AMOC period and vice versa, consistently with Labrador Sea deep convection reduction. We also observed an east–west salt redistribution between the two periods. Additional analyses show that the AMOC variability is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation phase change around 1995. One of the datasets included in the comparison shows an overestimation of AMOC variability, notwithstanding the model SST bias reduction via ERA-Interim flux adjustments: further studies with a set of numerical experiments will help explain this behavior.

Abrupt environmental changes during the last glacial cycle in Western Mediterranean (Formentera Island, Balearic archipelago, Spain)

A sedimentary sequence covering the entire last glacial cycle (period between Terminations I and II) outcrops along the south-eastern coast of Formentera Island. A detailed geomorphological, geological and sedimentological study, supported by geochemical, soil and soil-morphology analyses, magnetic susceptibility, phytolite content and luminescence dating (TL, OSL) allowed to reconstruct the environmental evolution of this coastal setting, and to frame it within the evolutionary pattern of the North Atlantic climate variability. Three highstands of sea level are identified in this island for MIS 5e, and a fourth one is attributed to MIS5a. MIS5 – MIS4 transition is characterized by soil development under a moist-warm climate and a descending sea level scenario. Aeolian units (72 ± 7 ka BP) developed during MIS4 under prevailing northerly winds that persisted until the beginning of MIS3, when new aeolian dunes (54 ± 5 ka BP) developed after a major sea-level lowstand. A sudden shift in prevailing winds occur within MIS3, when aeolian units (51 ± 4 ka BP) grew under the influence of S-SW winds and moister climate, evidenced by a dense root bioturbation. The greater influence of northerly winds is attributed to the weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) in North Atlantic, and enhancement of westerlies in NW Europe during colder periods. Periods of prevailing southerly winds and moister climate correlate well with warm Greenland Interstadials, and reinforcement of AMOC. Between 50 and 40ka, alluvial/colluvial sedimentary units punctuated by soil and calcrete development, witness the climatic variability recorded along this period in the North Atlantic. A sedimentary hiatus with erosion and calcrete development characterizes the transit between MIS3 and MIS2. Finally, a reddish alluvial sedimentary unit records a short span of humid and warm climate (soil development, peak in magnetic susceptibility, phytolite content) within MIS 2 (20 ± 2 ka BP – 17 + 2.4/-2.2) that contrast with the general climatic trend recorded in Western Mediterranean during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Mechanisms of Decadal North Atlantic Climate Variability and Implications for the Recent Cold Anomaly

AbstractDecadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean influence climate over adjacent land areas and are a major source of skill in climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal SST variability remain to be fully understood. This study isolates the mechanisms driving North Atlantic SST variability on decadal time scales using low-frequency component analysis, which identifies the spatial and temporal structure of low-frequency variability. Based on observations, large ensemble historical simulations, and preindustrial control simulations, we identify a decadal mode of atmosphere–ocean variability in the North Atlantic with a dominant time scale of 13–18 years. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies drive SST anomalies both through contemporaneous air–sea heat fluxes and through delayed ocean circulation changes, the latter involving both the meridional overturning circulation and the horizontal gyre circulation. The decadal SST anomalies alter the atmospheric meridional temperature gradient, leading to a reversal of the initial atmospheric circulation anomaly. The time scale of variability is consistent with westward propagation of baroclinic Rossby waves across the subtropical North Atlantic. The temporal development and spatial pattern of observed decadal SST variability are consistent with the recent observed cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. This suggests that the recent cold anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic is, in part, a result of decadal SST variability.

Possible influence of solar and astronomical factors on a climate of Northern Fennoscandia

Eleven proxy records of Northern Fennoscandia and North Atlantic climate variability were analyzed. Correlation of climatic records with (a) a quasi 11-year solar cycle of Schwabe, (b) a quasi 22-year solar cycle of Heil, (c) a quasi 20-year planetary-tidal cycle, related to wobbling of the Sun around the baricenter of the solar system, has been studied. A weak but stable and statistically significant correlation between the climatic proxies of Northern Fennoscandia and a double solar cycle was found to be present through the AD 1700–2000. No evidence of a connection between climatic records and both solar Schwabe cycle and quasi 20-year astronomic cycle were found. Possible physical mechanisms behind the revealed effect are discussed.

Palaeo-productivity record from Norwegian Sea enables North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction for the last 8000 years

The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant atmospheric driver of North Atlantic climate variability with phases corresponding to droughts and cold spells in Europe. Here, we exploit a suggested anti-correlation of North Atlantic Oscillation-phase and north-eastern North Atlantic primary productivity by investigation of south-eastern Norwegian Sea sediment cores spanning the last 8000 years. Age model uncertainties between 2 and 13 years for the period 1992–1850 AD allows for the proxy to observational data calibration. Our data suggest that Ca/Fe core-scanning results reflect sedimentary CaCO3 variability in the region. Cross-correlating the Ca/Fe record with nearby phytoplankton counts and dissolved O2 data suggests that Ca/Fe can be used as a proxy for primary productivity variability in the region. Our data support an anti-correlation of primary productivity to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index. Hence, we propose a sub-decadally resolved palaeo-North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction based on an open-ocean record spanning the last 8000 years.

Higher groundwater levels in western Europe characterize warm periods in the Common Era

Hydroclimate, the interplay of moisture supply and evaporative demand, is essential for ecological and agricultural systems. The understanding of long-term hydroclimate changes is, however, limited because instrumental measurements are inadequate in length to capture the full range of precipitation and temperature variability and by the uneven distribution of high-resolution proxy records in space and time. Here, we present a tree-ring-based reconstruction of interannual to centennial-scale groundwater level (GWL) fluctuations for south-western Germany and north-eastern France. Continuously covering the period of 265–2017 CE, our new record from the Upper Rhine Valley shows that the warm periods during late Roman, medieval and recent times were characterized by higher GWLs. Lower GWLs were found during the cold periods of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA; 536 to ~ 660 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; between medieval and recent warming). The reconstructed GWL fluctuations are in agreement with multidecadal North Atlantic climate variability derived from independent proxies. Warm and wet hydroclimate conditions are found during warm states of the Atlantic Ocean and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation on decadal scales.

Millennial-scale hydrographic changes in the northwestern Pacific during marine isotope stage 19: Teleconnections with ice melt in the North Atlantic

Marine isotope stage (MIS) 19 has been suggested as the best orbital analogue of the present interglacial period. Thus, its paleoenvironmental reconstruction will provide valuable information on future climate change, excluding anthropogenic impacts. The Kuroshio Current, the largest western boundary current in the northwestern Pacific, transports large amounts of heat and water poleward and strongly influences both East Asian and global climates. However, the responses of the Kuroshio Current to the variable intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) under this orbital configuration remain unknown. Here, we provide new centennial-scale resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) records throughout MIS 19 using benthic, as well as subsurface and surface planktonic foraminifera from the Chiba composite section, a marine succession sequence in central Japan, to reconstruct detailed paleoceanographic variations in the northwestern Pacific and reveal the response of the Kuroshio Current to climate variability in the North Atlantic under this orbital configuration. The vertical water temperature structure and its gradient (ΔT) based on δ18O profiles elucidates the latitudinal oscillations of the Kuroshio Extension Front (KEF) on a millennial scale during the late MIS 19 and MIS 20–19 transition in association with AMOC disruption/reactivation due to freshwater discharges into the North Atlantic. The power spectra of the surface δ18O and ΔT show half-precession periodicity throughout MIS 19, which probably originated from equatorial insolation at equinoxes co-occurring with the orbital perihelion. This periodicity was especially strong during MIS 19c, during which paleoceanographic records from the North Atlantic show minor variations in the AMOC and freshwater discharge. Our results suggest that millennial-scale oceanographic variation and stability along the KEF under this orbital configuration are influenced by both North Atlantic climate variability and tropical insolation forcing.

Caribbean hydroclimate and vegetation history across the last glacial period

We present a new speleothem trace element and stable isotope record, which extends previous paleoclimate evidence from Cuban speleothems to the last 96 ka. Multiple proxies were used to reconstruct Caribbean hydroclimate and vegetation variability on orbital to millennial timescales. In particular, our proxies indicate a shift to more abundant C4 (compared to C3) vegetation and/or reduced soil activity during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results confirm the close link of Caribbean precipitation to North Atlantic climate variability, insolation and the strength of the AMOC. The associated variations in Caribbean SSTs and the shift of the ITCZ led to substantial changes of the hydrological cycle. During Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas, climatic conditions in Cuba were comparably cool and/or dry. In contrast, warm Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles were accompanied by wetter conditions. This is in agreement with previous evidence for the Holocene, when North Atlantic cold (warm) events coincided with drier (wetter) conditions in Cuba. However, our record suggests that this connection was less dominant during MIS 4 to 2, displayed by a weaker response of Cuban precipitation proxies to North Atlantic climatic shifts than during MIS 5 in particular. We hypothesize that this weaker connection was mediated by the southerly shifted ITCZ inducing a weakening of the northern branch of the Caribbean Low Level Jet which usually transports moisture into the northern Caribbean. This is strikingly evident during the deglacial, when driest and/or coolest conditions prevailed in western Cuba from HS 1 into the Younger Dryas, including the Bølling/Allerød interstadial.

Influence of North Atlantic climate variability on glacier mass balance in Norway, Sweden and Svalbard

ABSTRACTClimate variability can complicate efforts to interpret any long-term glacier mass-balance trends due to anthropogenic warming. Here we examine the impact of climate variability on the seasonal mass-balance records of 14 glaciers throughout Norway, Sweden and Svalbard using dynamical adjustment, a statistical method that removes orthogonal patterns of variability shared between each mass-balance record and sea-level pressure or sea-surface temperature predictor fields. For each glacier, the two leading predictor patterns explain 27–81% of the winter mass-balance variability and 24–69% of the summer mass-balance variability. The spatial and temporal structure of these patterns indicates that accumulation variability for all of the glaciers is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also modulating accumulation variability for the northernmost glaciers. Given this result, predicting glacier change in the region may depend on NAO and AMO predictability. In the raw mass-balance records, the glaciers throughout southern Norway have significantly negative summer trends, whereas the glaciers located closer to the Arctic have negative winter trends. Removing the effects of climate variability suggests it can bias trends in mass-balance records that span a few decades, but its effects on most of the longer-term mass-balance trends are minimal.

Speleothem Paleoclimatology for the Caribbean, Central America, and North America

Speleothem oxygen isotope records from the Caribbean, Central, and North America reveal climatic controls that include orbital variation, deglacial forcing related to ocean circulation and ice sheet retreat, and the influence of local and remote sea surface temperature variations. Here, we review these records and the global climate teleconnections they suggest following the recent publication of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database. We find that low-latitude records generally reflect changes in precipitation, whereas higher latitude records are sensitive to temperature and moisture source variability. Tropical records suggest precipitation variability is forced by orbital precession and North Atlantic Ocean circulation driven changes in atmospheric convection on long timescales, and tropical sea surface temperature variations on short timescales. On millennial timescales, precipitation seasonality in southwestern North America is related to North Atlantic climate variability. Great Basin speleothem records are closely linked with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Although speleothems have revealed these critical global climate teleconnections, the paucity of continuous records precludes our ability to investigate climate drivers from the whole of Central and North America for the Pleistocene through modern. This underscores the need to improve spatial and temporal coverage of speleothem records across this climatically variable region.

Gulf Stream Variability in the Context of Quasi‐Decadal and Multidecadal Atlantic Climate Variability

AbstractThe Gulf Stream plays an important role in North Atlantic climate variability on a range of timescales. The North Atlantic is notable for large decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SST). Whether this variability is driven by atmospheric or oceanic influences is a disputed point. Long time series of atmospheric and ocean variables, in particular long time series of Gulf Stream position, reveal differing sources of SST variability on quasi‐decadal and multidecadal timescales. On quasi‐decadal timescales, an oscillatory signal identified in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) controls SST evolution directly via air‐sea heat fluxes. However, on multidecadal timescales, this relationship between the NAO and SST changes, while the relationship between the NAO and Gulf Stream position remains consistent in phase and resonant in amplitude. Recent changes in the Gulf Stream Extension show a weakening and broadening of the current, consistent with increased instability. We consider these changes in the context of a weakening Atlantic overturning circulation.

A 43 kyr record of protist communities and their response to oxygen minimum zone variability in the Northeastern Arabian Sea

An extensive oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) occurs in the northeastern (NE) Arabian Sea where sedimentary records show evidence of alternating strong and weak OMZs that correlate with North Atlantic climate variability during the last glacial–interglacial cycle. OMZs are expanding world-wide, but information on long-term OMZ-ecosystem interactions is mainly limited to fossilized species, notably foraminifera. Here, we provide a first comprehensive ancient sedimentary DNA record of both fossilizing and non-fossilizing protists and their response to OMZ variability in the NE Arabian Sea over the last 43 ka. Protist communities changed significantly during strong vs. weak OMZ conditions coincident with interstadials and stadials respectively. Dinoflagellates were identified as significant indicator taxa for strong OMZs during glacial as well as interglacial interstadials, whereas diatoms were significant indicators for strong OMZs only during glacial interstadials. The chlorophyte Chlorella was found to be the main phototrophic protist in nutrient-depleted surface waters during glacial stadials. Notably, strong OMZ conditions shaped past protist communities by creating isolated habitats for those capable of sustaining oxygen depletion either by adapting a parasitic life cycle (e.g. apicomplexans) or by establishing mutualistic connections with others (e.g. radiolarians and mixotrophic dinoflagellates) or by forming cysts (e.g. colpodeans). Notably, a long-term increase in eutrophication and a decrease in the diatom/dinoflagellate ratio was observed during the late Holocene favoring the pelagic component of the marine food web. A similar scenario could be expected in the context of predicted worldwide expansion of coastal OMZs associated with global climate change.

Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia

Abstract. To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ∼ 16–30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ∼ 20–30- and ∼ 50–90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice–temperature positive feedback.

Low-Frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble

There is observational and modeling evidence that low-frequency variability in the North Atlantic has significant implications for the global climate, particularly for the climate of the Northern Hemisphere. This study explores the representation of low-frequency variability in the Atlantic region in historical large ensemble and preindustrial control simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Compared to available observational estimates, it is found that the simulated variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST), and Sahel rainfall is underestimated on multidecadal time scales but comparable on interannual to decadal time scales. The weak multidecadal North Atlantic variability appears to be closely related to weaker-than-observed multidecadal variations in the simulated North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as the AMOC and consequent NASST variability is impacted, to a great degree, by the NAO. Possible reasons for this weak multidecadal NAO variability are explored with reference to solutions from two atmosphere-only simulations with different lower boundary conditions and vertical resolution. Both simulations consistently reveal weaker-than-observed multidecadal NAO variability despite more realistic boundary conditions and better resolved dynamics than coupled simulations. The authors thus conjecture that the weak multidecadal NAO variability in CESM is likely due to deficiencies in air–sea coupling, resulting from shortcomings in the atmospheric model or coupling details.

Vegetation response to abrupt climate changes in Western Europe from 45 to 14.7k cal a BP: the Bergsee lacustrine record (Black Forest, Germany)

ABSTRACTBetween 45 and 14.7k cal a BP, the North Atlantic climate was characterized by a succession of short‐lived Greenland Stadials (GS)/Interstadials (GI), which impacted terrestrial environments. We present a new pollen record from the Bergsee (47°34′20″N, 7°56′11″E), which was ice free during the Last Glacial. We constructed a robust chronology for the period 45–14.7k cal a BP based on 14 accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates and a tephra attributed to the Laacher See Tephra. Vegetation history was reconstructed at the sub‐millennial scale using pollen analysis. At millennial timescale, a 45–30k cal a BP period shows relatively high tree percentages and marked forest developments, consistent with warmer and more humid conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. This contrasts with a 30–14.7k cal a BP period of steppe conditions, favoured by a colder/more arid MIS 2. In detail, vegetation seems to respond to GIs and GSs with the successive development of steppes and boreal forests. The impact of Heinrich events is also recorded with a marked development of Artemisia. Comparison with European records shows the contribution of the Bergsee pollen record to understanding impacts of the North Atlantic climate variability on landscapes across longitudinal and latitudinal gradients.

Dynamical anomalies in terrestrial proxies of North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka

Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statis- tical analysis. Following upon these ideas, in this study we systematically test a set of Late Holocene terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe for indications of intermittent periods of time-irreversibility during which the data are incompatible with a stationary linear-stochastic process. Our analysis reveals that the onsets of both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, the end of the Roman Warm Period and the Late Antique Little Ice Age have been characterized by such dynamical anomalies. These findings may indicate qualitative changes in the dominant regime of inter-annual climate variability in terms of large-scale atmospheric circula- tion patterns, ocean-atmosphere interactions and external forcings affecting the climate of the North Atlantic region.