North Atlantic Climate Variability Research Articles

Summer temperature evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russian Far East, during the past 20 000 years

Abstract. Little is known about the climate evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula during the last glacial–interglacial transition as existing climate records do not reach beyond 12 ka BP. In this study, a summer temperature record for the past 20 kyr is presented. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, terrigenous biomarkers suitable for continental air temperature reconstructions, were analyzed in a sediment core from the western continental margin off Kamchatka in the marginal northwest Pacific (NW Pacific). The record suggests that summer temperatures on Kamchatka during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) equaled modern temperatures. We suggest that strong southerly winds associated with a pronounced North Pacific High pressure system over the subarctic NW Pacific accounted for the warm conditions. A comparison with an Earth system model reveals discrepancies between model and proxy-based reconstructions for the LGM temperature and atmospheric circulation in the NW Pacific realm. The deglacial temperature development is characterized by abrupt millennial-scale temperature oscillations. The Bølling–Allerød warm phase and the Younger Dryas cold spell are pronounced events, suggesting a connection to North Atlantic climate variability.

Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000–2014 in the Bay of Biscay

Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000–2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003–2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary.

Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

Abstract. The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ∼ 1 PgC yr−1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ∼ 30 % larger than observed (or ∼ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

Abstract. Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations, and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher-frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial-scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansion during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a normal feature of the cryosphere. The data provide a longer-term perspective on the rate of 20th century glacier retreat and indicate that recent anthropogenic-driven warming has already impacted the regional cryosphere in a manner outside the natural range of Holocene variability.

Changes in the strength of the Nordic Seas Overflows over the past 3000 years

The Nordic Seas Overflows constitute the densest component of the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Changes in the vigour of the overflows may have had important climatic effects in the past and may also have in the future. Yet, evidence for multidecadal to millennial changes in the deep limb of the AMOC and their potential relationship to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene remains weakly constrained. Here we present grain size data, as a proxy for near-bottom current speed, from sub-decadal to decadally resolved sediment cores located in the direct pathway of the two Nordic Overflows east and west of Iceland, the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW), respectively. The results show no clear relationship between reconstructed changes in the vigour of the Nordic Overflows and the well-known periods of centennial-scale climate variability recorded in the North Atlantic region. However, well-defined millennial-scale trends are found in both of the overflow strength records over the last 3000 years, which were possibly related to hydrographic reorganizations in the Nordic Seas, driven by the decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation over the Neoglacial period. A comparison between the near-bottom flow speed reconstructions from ISOW and DSOW suggests an anti-phased relationship between the Nordic Seas Overflows east and west of Iceland over the last 3000 years. This feature has been observed in climate models potentially as a result of shifts in the deep water formation sites as a response to changes in atmospheric patterns over the Nordic Seas.

Deglacial subarctic Pacific surface water hydrography and nutrient dynamics and links to North Atlantic climate variability and atmospheric CO2

AbstractThe glacial‐to‐Holocene evolution of subarctic Pacific surface water stratification and silicic acid (Si) dynamics is investigated based on new combined diatom oxygen (δ18Odiat) and silicon (δ30Sidiat) isotope records, along with new biogenic opal, subsurface foraminiferal δ18O, alkenone‐based sea surface temperature, sea ice, diatom, and core logging data from the NE Pacific. Our results suggest that δ18Odiat values are primarily influenced by changes in freshwater discharge from the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS), while corresponding δ30Sidiat are primarily influenced by changes in Si supply to surface waters. Our data indicate enhanced glacial to mid Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) NE Pacific surface water stratification, generally limiting the Si supply to surface waters. However, we suggest that an increase in Si supply during early HS1, when surface waters were still stratified, is linked to increased North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. The coincidence between fresh surface waters during HS1 and enhanced ice‐rafted debris sedimentation in the North Atlantic indicates a close link between CIS and Laurentide Ice Sheet dynamics and a dominant atmospheric control on CIS deglaciation. The Bølling/Allerød (B/A) is characterized by destratification in the subarctic Pacific and an increased supply of saline, Si‐rich waters to surface waters. This change toward increased convection occurred prior to the Bølling warming and is likely triggered by a switch to sea ice‐free conditions during late HS1. Our results furthermore indicate a decreased efficiency of the biological pump during late HS1 and the B/A (possibly also the Younger Dryas), suggesting that the subarctic Pacific has then been a source region of atmospheric CO2.

A composite annual-resolution stalagmite record of North Atlantic climate over the last three millennia.

Annually laminated stalagmites can be used to construct a precise chronology, and variations in laminae thickness provide an annual growth-rate record that can be used as a proxy for past climate and environmental change. Here, we present and analyse the first composite speleothem annual growth-rate record based on five stalagmites from the same cave system in northwest Scotland, where precipitation is sensitive to North Atlantic climate variability and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our 3000-year record confirms persistently low growth-rates, reflective of positive NAO states, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Another persistently low growth period occurring at 290-550 CE coincides with the European Migration Period, and a subsequent period of sustained fast growth-rate (negative NAO) from 600-900 AD provides the climate context for the Viking Age in northern and western Europe.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Drought/Tropical Cyclone Co‐occurrence in the Southeastern USA: Linkages to North Atlantic Climate Variability

AbstractDroughts and landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs; tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) are important features of the hydroclimate of the southeastern USA at seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal scales. The societal impacts and climatological aspects of both droughts and Atlantic TCs have been widely addressed in the scientific literature. However, in general, previous research has assessed the two phenomena separately. Recently, the spatiotemporal patterns and hydroclimatic impacts of drought amelioration by landfalling TCs have been analyzed for the southeastern USA, as well as the large‐scale dynamic forcing mechanisms that enhance or suppress drought‐TC co‐occurrence. At multidecadal time scales, both droughts and TCs in this region vary in association with several leading modes of basin‐wide and regional climate variability. These climate modes appear to be coherently linked to a background oceanic–atmospheric pattern that either promotes or suppresses the likelihood of both droughts and TC landfalls. The relative frequency of TC landfalls in drought‐stricken areas, the importance of these events in the regional moisture budget, and the potential for future changes in the large‐scale forcing environment raise fundamental questions about possible changes in the hydroclimate of the southeastern USA, where population growth and rising water demand already place strain on freshwater resources. In this article, we provide a review and synthesis of the recent research on variability in drought, landfalling TCs, the characteristics of the space–time association between these two phenomena in the southeastern USA, and the coherent large‐scale oceanic–atmospheric environment that either promotes or suppresses their co‐occurrence. Further, we review Global Climate Model projections related to these factors, and we identify avenues for future research on this important topic.

Climatic imprint of the mid-latitude Westerlies in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan and teleconnections to North Atlantic climate variability during the last 6000 years

In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100–4350, 3450–2850, and 1900–1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct ~1500-year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.

Two Stable Equilibria of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

Abstract The cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on a wide range of time scales. It is generally accepted that it is driven by both cyclonic winds and buoyancy forcing, yet the individual importance and dynamical interactions of the two contributions remain unclear. The authors propose a simplified four-box model representing the convective basin of the Labrador Sea and its shallow and deep boundary current system, the western subpolar gyre. Convective heat loss drives a baroclinic flow of relatively light water around the dense center. Eddy salt flux from the boundary current to the center increases with a stronger circulation, favors the formation of dense waters, and thereby sustains a strong baroclinic flow, approximately 10%–25% of the total. In contrast, when the baroclinic flow is not active, surface waters may be too fresh to convect, and a buoyancy-driven circulation cannot develop. This situation corresponds to a second stable circulation mode. A hysteresis is found for variations in surface freshwater flux and the salinity of the near-surface boundary current. An analytical solution is presented and analyzed.

Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet impacts on North Atlantic climate variability: The importance of the sea ice lid

AbstractLast Glacial Maximum (LGM) ICE‐5G (VM2), ICE‐6G (VM5a), and Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 ice sheet reconstructions are employed in high‐resolution coupled climate model simulations to investigate the changes they induce in North Atlantic climate variability. An initial ICE‐5G (VM2) experiment develops a rapid increase of sea ice extent once a thermal threshold is exceeded in this multimillennial simulation. Subpolar sea ice concentration and thickness are found to be strongly impacted by topographically induced downstream thermal effects from the Laurentide Ice Sheet in each of the reconstructions. However, in the two additional LGM perturbation experiments, the modeled changes in sea ice area are sufficiently similar to the LGM ICE‐5G (VM2) experiment to lead to an equilibrium Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength that is also reduced by the same ~40% from preindustrial even though we find significant variation among the models in the deep convection regions of the subpolar glacial North Atlantic. Model‐predicted sea ice concentrations in this critical region exceed those based upon multiproxy reconstructions, and we trace these significant differences to the intensity of the interannual variability of sea ice cover predictions.

Millennial- to centennial-scale climate periodicities and forcing mechanisms in the westernmost Mediterranean for the past 20,000 yr

Cyclostratigraphic analysis conducted on a continuous high-resolution marine record from the western most Mediterranean reveals well-identified paleoclimate cycles for the last 20,000yr. The detrital proxies used (Si/Al, Ti/Al, Zr/Al, Mg/Al, K/Al, Rb/Al) are related to different sediment-transport mechanisms, including eolian dust and fluvial runoff, which involve fluctuations in the atmosphere–hydrosphere systems. These fluctuations are accompanied by changes in marine productivity (supported by Ba/Al) and bottom-water redox conditions (Cu/Al, V/Al, Zn/Al, Fe/Al, Mn/Al, U/Th). Spectral analysis conducted using the Lomb–Scargle periodogram and the achieved significance level implemented with the permutation test allowed us to establish major periodicities at 1300, 1515, 2000, and 5000yr, and secondary peaks at 650, 1087, and 3000yr. Some of these cycles also agree with those previously described in the North Atlantic Ocean and circum-Mediterranean records. The periodicities obtained at 2000 and 5000yr support a global connection with records distributed at high, mid, and low latitudes associated with solar activity, monsoonal regime and orbital forcing. The 1300- and 1515-yrcycles appear to be linked with North Atlantic climate variability and the African monsoon system. Thus, the analyzed record provides evidence of climate cycles and plausible forcing mechanisms coupled with ocean–atmosphere fluctuations.

A 16-ka δ18O record of lacustrine sugar biomarkers from the High Himalaya reflects Indian Summer Monsoon variability

We investigated a late glacial–Holocene lacustrine sediment archive located at 4,050 m a.s.l. in the small carbonate-free catchment of Lake Panch Pokhari, Helambu Himal, Nepal. A δ18O sugar biomarker record was established by applying novel compound-specific δ18O analysis of plant sugar biomarkers (Zech and Glaser in Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 23:3522–3532, 2009). This method overcomes analytical challenges such as extraction and purification faced by previous methods aimed at using δ18O of aquatic cellulose as a paleoclimate proxy. The δ18O results for sugar biomarkers arabinose, xylose and fucose agree well and reveal a pronounced trend towards lower δ18O values during the deglaciation and the onset of the Bolling/Allerod interstadial. By contrast, the period of the Younger Dryas is characterized by higher δ18O values. The early Holocene again reveals lower δ18O values. We suggest that our lacustrine δ18O record reflects coupled hydrological and thermal control. It is strongly related to changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-precipitation and resembles the δ18O records of Asian speleothems. With respect to the ‘amount effect,’ the record is interpreted as reflecting the Indian Summer Monsoon intensity. The precipitation signal is, however, amplified in our record by evaporative 18O enrichment that is controlled by the ratio of precipitation to evaporation. We suggest that our δ18O record reflects the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon, which was strong during the Bolling/Allerod interstadial and early Holocene, but weak during the Younger Dryas stadial. This interpretation is corroborated by a pollen-based index for Lake Panch Pokhari that estimated the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon versus the strength of the Westerlies. Millennial-scale synchronicity with the Greenland δ18O temperature records highlights the previously suggested strong teleconnections between the Asian Monsoon system and North Atlantic climate variability.

Rainfall response to orbital and millennial forcing in northern Peru over the last 18 ka

We present a high-resolution marine record of sediment input from the Guayas River, Ecuador, that reflects changes in precipitation along western equatorial South America during the last 18ka. We use log (Ti/Ca) derived from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) to document terrigenous input from riverine runoff that integrates rainfall from the Guayas River catchment. We find that rainfall-induced riverine runoff has increased during the Holocene and decreased during the last deglaciation. Superimposed on those long-term trends, we find that rainfall was probably slightly increased during the Younger Dryas, while the Heinrich event 1 was marked by an extreme load of terrigenous input, probably reflecting one of the wettest period over the time interval studied. When we compare our results to other Deglacial to Holocene rainfall records located across the tropical South American continent, different modes of variability become apparent. The records of rainfall variability imply that changes in the hydrological cycle at orbital and sub-orbital timescales were different from western to eastern South America. Orbital forcing caused an antiphase behavior in rainfall trends between eastern and western equatorial South America. In contrast, millennial-scale rainfall changes, remotely connected to the North Atlantic climate variability, led to homogenously wetter conditions over eastern and western equatorial South America during North Atlantic cold spells. These results may provide helpful diagnostics for testing the regional rainfall sensitivity in climate models and help to refine rainfall projections in South America for the next century.

Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?

Abstract Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the twentieth century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modify net surface shortwave radiation. On the basis of these results, Booth et al. concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability.

Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Abstract. Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

North Atlantic climate and ocean circulation variability during the last millennium in paleo reconstructions and simulations

North Atlantic climate and ocean circulation variability during the last millennium in paleo reconstructions and simulations

A review of the South American monsoon history as recorded in stable isotopic proxies over the past two millennia

Abstract. We review the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) over the past ~2000 yr based on high-resolution stable isotope proxies from speleothems, ice cores and lake sediments. Our review is complemented by an analysis of an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the past 130 yr. Proxy records from the monsoon belt in the tropical Andes and SE Brazil show a very coherent behavior over the past 2 millennia with significant decadal to multidecadal variability superimposed on large excursions during three key periods: the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warm period (CWP). We interpret these three periods as times when the SASM's mean state was significantly weakened (MCA and CWP) and strengthened (LIA), respectively. During the LIA each of the proxy archives considered contains the most negative δ18O values recorded during the entire record length. On the other hand, the monsoon strength is currently rather weak in a 2000-yr historical perspective, rivaled only by the low intensity during the MCA. Our climatic interpretation of these archives is consistent with our isotope-based GCM analysis, which suggests that these sites are sensitive recorders of large-scale monsoon variations. We hypothesize that these centennial-scale climate anomalies were at least partially driven by temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over the North Atlantic, leading to a latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ and a change in monsoon intensity (amount of rainfall upstream over the Amazon Basin). This interpretation is supported by several independent records from different proxy archives and modeling studies. Although ENSO is the main forcing for δ18O variability over tropical South America on interannual time scales, our results suggest that its influence may be significantly modulated by North Atlantic climate variability on longer time scales. Finally, our analyses indicate that isotopic proxies, because of their ability to integrate climatic information on large spatial scales, could complement more traditional proxies such as tree rings or documentary evidence. Future climate reconstruction efforts could potentially benefit from including isotopic proxies as large-scale predictors in order to better constrain past changes in the atmospheric circulation.

Impact of freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on North Atlantic climate variability

Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, we investigated the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on North Atlantic climate variability. The positive-degree day (PDD) method was incorporated into the model to control continental ice melting (PDD run). Models with and without the PDD method produce a realistic pattern of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability that fluctuates from decadal to multidecadal periods. However, the interdecadal variability in PDD run is significantly dominated in the longer time scale compared to that in the run without PDD method. The main oscillatory feature in these experiments likely resembles the density-driven oscillatory mode. A reduction in the ocean density over the subpolar Atlantic results in suppression of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), leading to a cold SST due to a weakening of northward heat transport. The decreased surface evaporation associated with the cold SST further reduces the ocean density and thus, simultaneously acts as a positive feedback mechanism. The southward meridional current associated with the suppressed AMOC causes a positive tendency in the ocean density through density advection, which accounts for the phase transition of this oscillatory mode. The Greenland ice melting process reduces the mean meridional current and meridional density gradient because of additional fresh water flux, which suppress the delayed negative feedback due to meridional density advection. As a result, the oscillation period becomes longer and the transition is more delayed.